Articles | Volume 10, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Collection:
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
05 Dec 2018
| 05 Dec 2018
Global Carbon Budget 2018
Corinne Le Quéré
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Robbie M. Andrew
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0349, Norway
Pierre Friedlingstein
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
Stephen Sitch
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
Judith Hauck
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Postfach 120161, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany
Julia Pongratz
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Penelope A. Pickers
Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Jan Ivar Korsbakken
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0349, Norway
Glen P. Peters
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0349, Norway
Josep G. Canadell
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Almut Arneth
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Vivek K. Arora
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Leticia Barbero
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL 33149, USA
Ana Bastos
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany
Laurent Bopp
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Département de Géosciences,
Ecole Normale Supérieure, 24 rue Lhomond, 75005 Paris, France
Frédéric Chevallier
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Louise P. Chini
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Scott C. Doney
University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA
Thanos Gkritzalis
Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ), Wanelaarkaai 7, 8400 Ostend, Belgium
Daniel S. Goll
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Ian Harris
NCAS-Climate, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
Vanessa Haverd
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Forrest M. Hoffman
Computational Earth Sciences Group, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Mario Hoppema
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Postfach 120161, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany
Richard A. Houghton
Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), Falmouth, MA 02540, USA
George Hurtt
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA
Tatiana Ilyina
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Atul K. Jain
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USA
Truls Johannessen
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Chris D. Jones
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Etsushi Kato
Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
Ralph F. Keeling
University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0244, USA
Kees Klein Goldewijk
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, P.O. Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, the Netherlands
Faculty of Geosciences, Department IMEW, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Heidelberglaan 2, P.O. Box 80115,
3508 TC, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Peter Landschützer
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Nathalie Lefèvre
Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06), CNRS, IRD, MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL Laboratory, 75252 Paris, France
Sebastian Lienert
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Danica Lombardozzi
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Terrestrial Sciences Section, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Nicolas Metzl
Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06), CNRS, IRD, MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL Laboratory, 75252 Paris, France
David R. Munro
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA
Julia E. M. S. Nabel
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Shin-ichiro Nakaoka
Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
Craig Neill
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, P.O. Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Are Olsen
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Tsueno Ono
National Research Institute for Far Sea Fisheries, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama 236-8648, Japan
Prabir Patra
Department of Environmental Geochemical Cycle Research, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
Anna Peregon
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Wouter Peters
Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Centre for Isotope Research, University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 6, 9747 AG Groningen, the Netherlands
Philippe Peylin
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Benjamin Pfeil
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Jahnebakken 5, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Denis Pierrot
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL 33149, USA
Benjamin Poulter
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
Gregor Rehder
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, 18119 Rostock, Germany
Laure Resplandy
Princeton University Department of Geosciences and Princeton Environmental Institute Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Eddy Robertson
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Matthias Rocher
Centre National de Recherche Météorologique, Unite mixte de recherche 3589 Météo-France/CNRS, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31100 Toulouse, France
Christian Rödenbeck
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
Ute Schuster
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
Jörg Schwinger
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Jahnebakken 5, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Roland Séférian
Centre National de Recherche Météorologique, Unite mixte de recherche 3589 Météo-France/CNRS, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31100 Toulouse, France
Ingunn Skjelvan
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Jahnebakken 5, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Tobias Steinhoff
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105, Kiel, Germany
Adrienne Sutton
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
Pieter P. Tans
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Hanqin Tian
School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Ducan Drive, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
Bronte Tilbrook
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, P.O. Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Francesco N. Tubiello
Statistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Via Terme di Caracalla, Rome 00153, Italy
Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx
Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Guido R. van der Werf
Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Nicolas Viovy
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Anthony P. Walker
Environmental Sciences Division & Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
Andrew J. Wiltshire
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Rebecca Wright
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Sönke Zaehle
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
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Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Erik T. Buitenhuis, Parvadha Suntharalingam, and Corinne Le Quéré
Biogeosciences, 15, 2161–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2161-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2161-2018, 2018
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Thanks to decreases in CFC concentrations, N2O is now the third-most important greenhouse gas, and the dominant contributor to stratospheric ozone depletion. Here we estimate the ocean–atmosphere N2O flux. We find that an estimate based on observations alone has a large uncertainty. By combining observations and a range of model simulations we find that the uncertainty is much reduced to 2.45 ± 0.8 Tg N yr−1, and better constrained and at the lower end of the estimate in the latest IPCC report.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Corinne Le Quéré, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Róisín Moriarty, Séverine Alvain, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Sophie Chollet, Clare Enright, Daniel J. Franklin, Richard J. Geider, Sandy P. Harrison, Andrew G. Hirst, Stuart Larsen, Louis Legendre, Trevor Platt, I. Colin Prentice, Richard B. Rivkin, Sévrine Sailley, Shubha Sathyendranath, Nick Stephens, Meike Vogt, and Sergio M. Vallina
Biogeosciences, 13, 4111–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, 2016
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We present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types, and use the model to assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton growth.
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015
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We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
C. Heinze, S. Meyer, N. Goris, L. Anderson, R. Steinfeldt, N. Chang, C. Le Quéré, and D. C. E. Bakker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 327–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, 2015
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Rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by human actions over the past 250 years have raised cause for concern that changes in Earth’s climate system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past 20,000 years. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon inventory will affect its ecosystems. Major future ocean carbon research challenges are discussed.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
L. Kwiatkowski, A. Yool, J. I. Allen, T. R. Anderson, R. Barciela, E. T. Buitenhuis, M. Butenschön, C. Enright, P. R. Halloran, C. Le Quéré, L. de Mora, M.-F. Racault, B. Sinha, I. J. Totterdell, and P. M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 11, 7291–7304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
T. Hashioka, M. Vogt, Y. Yamanaka, C. Le Quéré, E. T. Buitenhuis, M. N. Aita, S. Alvain, L. Bopp, T. Hirata, I. Lima, S. Sailley, and S. C. Doney
Biogeosciences, 10, 6833–6850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6833-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6833-2013, 2013
C. Le Quéré, R. J. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, G. Marland, G. P. Peters, G. R. van der Werf, A. Ahlström, R. M. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, C. Jourdain, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S. Sitch, B. D. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, 2013
R. Wanninkhof, G. -H. Park, T. Takahashi, C. Sweeney, R. Feely, Y. Nojiri, N. Gruber, S. C. Doney, G. A. McKinley, A. Lenton, C. Le Quéré, C. Heinze, J. Schwinger, H. Graven, and S. Khatiwala
Biogeosciences, 10, 1983–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013, 2013
O. D. Andrews, N. L. Bindoff, P. R. Halloran, T. Ilyina, and C. Le Quéré
Biogeosciences, 10, 1799–1813, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013, 2013
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Michał Gałkowski, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Santiago Botía, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 639–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, 2025
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CO2 mole fractions simulated over a global set of stations showed an overestimation of CO2 if the diurnal cycle is missing in biogenic fluxes. This leads to biases in the estimated fluxes derived from the regional-scale inversions. Interannual variability of estimated biogenic fluxes is also affected by the exclusion of the CO2 diurnal cycle. The findings point to the importance of including the diurnal variations of CO2 in the biogenic fluxes used as priors in global and regional inversions.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
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Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Vivek K. Arora, Aranildo Lima, and Rajesh Shrestha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 291–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-291-2025, 2025
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This study presents a Canada-wide assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-climatology of the region's major river basins. We find that precipitation, runoff, and temperature are all expected to increase over Canada in the future. The northerly Mackenzie and Yukon rivers are relatively less affected by climate change compared to the southerly Fraser and Columbia rivers, which are located in the milder northwestern Pacific region.
Diego Santaren, Janne Hakkarainen, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Erik Koene, Frédéric Chevallier, Iolanda Ialongo, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Janne Nurmela, Johanna Tamminen, Laia Amorós, Dominik Brunner, and Grégoire Broquet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 211–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-211-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates data-driven inversion methods for estimating CO2 emissions from local sources, such as power plants and cities, using meteorological data and XCO2 and NO2 satellite images rather than atmospheric transport modeling. We assess and compare the performance of five different methods using simulations of 1 year of satellite images, taken from the upcoming Copernicus CO2 Monitoring Mission, covering 15 power plants and the city of Berlin, Germany.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara H. Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 22, 305–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, 2025
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This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Lilian Vallet, Charbel Abdallah, Thomas Lauvaux, Lilian Joly, Michel Ramonet, Philippe Ciais, Morgan Lopez, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Florent Mouillot
Biogeosciences, 22, 213–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-213-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-213-2025, 2025
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The 2022 fire season had a huge impact on European temperate forest, with several large fires exhibiting prolonged soil combustion reported. We analyzed CO and CO2 concentration recorded at nearby atmospheric towers, revealing intense smoldering combustion. We refined a fire emission model to incorporate this process. We estimated 7.95 Mteq CO2 fire emission, twice the global estimate. Fires contributed to 1.97 % of France's annual carbon footprint, reducing forest carbon sink by 30 % this year.
Dafina Kikaj, Edward Chung, Alan D. Griffiths, Scott D. Chambers, Grant Forster, Angelina Wenger, Penelope Pickers, Chris Rennick, Simon O'Doherty, Joseph Pitt, Kieran Stanley, Dickon Young, Leigh S. Fleming, Karina Adcock, Emmal Safi, and Tim Arnold
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 151–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-151-2025, 2025
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We present a protocol to improve confidence in atmospheric radon measurements, enabling site comparisons and integration with greenhouse gas data. As a natural tracer, radon provides an independent check of transport model performance. This standardized method enhances radon’s use as a metric for model evaluation. Beyond UK observatories, it can support broader networks like ICOS and WMO/GAW, advancing global atmospheric research.
Tatsuki Tokoro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Shintaro Takao, Shu Saito, Daisuke Sasano, Kazutaka Enyo, Masao Ishii, Naohiro Kosugi, Tsuneo Ono, Kazuaki Tadokoro, and Yukihiro Nojiri
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3792, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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We studied how landwater from the mainland of Japan affects the ocean's carbon cycle using decades of Total Alkalinity (TA) data from the Northwest Pacific. Statistical analysis revealed landwater as a major TA source, reducing coastal acidification by 65 %, but with minimal impact on atmospheric CO2 absorption. Future work aims to refine results with depth-specific data and apply findings to global models.
Beata Bukosa, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Gordon Brailsford, Dan Smale, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Miko U. F. Kirschbaum, Donna L. Giltrap, Lìyı̌n Liáng, Stuart Moore, Rowena Moss, Sylvia Nichol, Jocelyn Turnbull, Alex Geddes, Daemon Kennett, Dora Hidy, Zoltán Barcza, Louis A. Schipper, Aaron M. Wall, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hitoshi Mukai, and Andrea Brandon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3866, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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We used atmospheric measurements and inverse modeling to estimate New Zealand's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and removals from 2011 to 2020. Our study reveals that New Zealand's land absorbs more CO₂ than previously estimated, particularly in areas dominated by indigenous forests. Our results highlight gaps in current national CO₂ estimates and methods, suggesting a need for further research to improve emissions reporting and refine approaches to track progress toward climate mitigation goals.
Fortunat Joos, Sebastian Lienert, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 19–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, 2025
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How plants regulate their exchange of CO2 and water with the atmosphere under global warming is critical for their carbon uptake and their cooling influence. We analyze the isotope ratio of atmospheric CO2 and detect no significant decadal trends in the seasonal cycle amplitude. The data are consistent with the regulation towards leaf CO2 and intrinsic water use efficiency growing proportionally to atmospheric CO2, in contrast to recent suggestions of downregulation of CO2 and water fluxes.
Enhui Liao, Laure Resplandy, Fan Yang, Yangyang Zhao, Sam Ditkovsky, Manon Malsang, Jenna Pearson, Andrew C. Ross, Robert Hallberg, and Charles Stock
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3646, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We introduce a regional ocean model of the northern Indian Ocean, a region central to the livelihoods and economies of countries that comprise about one-third of the world’s population. The model successfully represents the key physical and biogeochemical features of the region and is well suited for physical and biogeochemical studies on timescales ranging from weeks to decades, in addition to supporting marine resource applications and management in the northern Indian Ocean.
Jianyong Ma, Almut Arneth, Benjamin Smith, Peter Anthoni, Xu-Ri, Peter Eliasson, David Wårlind, Martin Wittenbrink, and Stefan Olin
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-223, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful greenhouse gas mainly released from natural and agricultural soils. This study examines how global soil N2O emissions have changed from 1961 to 2020 and identifies key factors driving these changes using an ecological model. The findings highlight croplands as the largest source, with factors like fertilizer use and climate change enhancing emissions. Rising CO2 levels, however, can partially mitigate N2O emissions through increased plant nitrogen uptake.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
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The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin G. De Kauwe, Samuel Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig R. Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
Biogeosciences, 21, 5517–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, 2024
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This paper evaluates land models – computer-based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics; land carbon, water, and energy cycles; and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning and AI approaches to show that, despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
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This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Bettina K. Gier, Manuel Schlund, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Sönke Zaehle, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 21, 5321–5360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, 2024
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This study investigates present-day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better but also show many remaining biases. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with a nitrogen cycle is found, with only small differences between emission- and concentration-based simulations. Thus, we recommend using emission-driven simulations in CMIP7 by default and including the nitrogen cycle in all future carbon cycle models.
Yawen Kong, Bo Zheng, and Yuxi Liu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2996, 2024
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Current high-resolution satellite remote sensing technologies provide a unique opportunity to derive timely, high-resolution emission data. We developed an emission inversion system to assimilate satellite NO2 data to obtain daily, kilometer-scale NOx emission inventories. Our results enhance inventory accuracy, allowing us to capture the effects of pollution control policies on daily emissions (e.g., during COVID-19 lockdown) and improve fine-scale air quality modeling.
Le Niu, Songbin Wu, Robbie M. Andrew, Zi Shao, Jiaoyue Wang, and Fengming Xi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-437, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-437, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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This study provides a precise bottom-up quantification to cement carbonation sinks at national and global levels. It shows the global CO2 uptake by cement materials increases from 7.74 Mt yr-1 in 1928 to 0.84 Gt yr-1 in 2023, and projected to rise to 0.86 Gt yr-1 in 2024, the accumulated CO2 uptake offsets about 46 % of the cement process emission. The dominance in cement carbon uptake has shifted from the USA, Japan and some European countries to emerging economies such as China and India.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3522, 2024
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We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from CMIP6 Earth System Models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, particularly in nitrogen, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Kamal Nyaupane, Umakant Mishra, Feng Tao, Kyongmin Yeo, William J. Riley, Forrest M. Hoffman, and Sagar Gautam
Biogeosciences, 21, 5173–5183, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5173-2024, 2024
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Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Using machine learning, we develop and compare predictive relationships in observations (Obs) and ESMs. We find different relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks in Obs and ESMs. SOC prediction in ESMs may be improved by representing the functional relationships of environmental controllers in a way consistent with observations.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Laura Eifler, Franziska Müller, and Ana Bastos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3534, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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Forests provide ecosystem services and biodiversity, but they are increasingly affected by disturbances. Consistent global data on forest disturbances are lacking, impeding effective assessment. We compare four forest disturbance datasets for the continental USA, finding moderate agreement overall, with ground-based inventories more consistent than satellite data. This emphasizes the need for enhanced data quality assessment, integration, and accuracy to better understand forest disturbances.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew Macdougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Seferian, Lori Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Abigail Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated zero emissions commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Sabine Egerer, Stefanie Falk, Dorothea Mayer, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 21, 5005–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024, 2024
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Using a state-of-the-art land model, we find that bioenergy plants can store carbon more efficiently than forests over long periods in the soil, in geological reservoirs, or by substituting fossil-fuel-based energy. Planting forests is more suitable for reaching climate targets by 2050. The carbon removal potential depends also on local environmental conditions. These considerations have important implications for climate policy, spatial planning, nature conservation, and agriculture.
Flossie Brown, Gerd Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Paulo Artaxo, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Matteo Detto, Ninong Komala, Luciana Rizzo, Nestor Rojas, Ines dos Santos Vieira, Steven Turnock, Hans Verbeeck, and Alfonso Zambrano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12537–12555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, 2024
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Ozone is a pollutant that is detrimental to human and plant health. Ozone monitoring sites in the tropics are limited, so models are often used to understand ozone exposure. We use measurements from the tropics to evaluate ozone from the UK Earth system model, UKESM1. UKESM1 is able to capture the pattern of ozone in the tropics, except in southeast Asia, although it systematically overestimates it at all sites. This work highlights that UKESM1 can capture seasonal and hourly variability.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Maria Carolina Duran-Rojas, Thais Michele Rosan, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Louise P. Chini, and George C. Hurtt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3165, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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Indonesia is 3 world's highest carbon emitter from land use change. However, there are uncertainties of the carbon emission of Indonesia that can be reduced with satellite-based datasets. But later, we found that the uncertainties are also caused by the difference of carbon pool in various models. Our best estimation of carbon emissions from land use change in Indonesia is 0.12 ± 0.02 PgC/yr with steady trend. This double when include peat fire and peat drainage emissions.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Alexandre Héraud, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Theodoros Christoudias, Jonilda Kushta, and Jean Sciare
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-410, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-410, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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In this study, we estimate emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in 2022 at high-resolution at the global scale, using satellite observations. We provide maps of the emissions and identify several types of sources. Our results are similar to the EDGAR emission inventory. However, differences are found in countries with lower observation densities and lower emissions.
Daniel Pönisch, Henry C. Bittig, Martin Kolbe, Ingo Schuffenhauer, Stefan Otto, Peter Holtermann, Kusala Premaratne, and Gregor Rehder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3246, 2024
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Rewetted peatlands exhibit natural spatial and temporal biogeochemical heterogeneity, influenced by water level and vegetation. This study investigated the variability of the distribution of GHGs in a brackish-rewetted peatland. Two innovative sensor-equipped landers were used to measure a wide range of marine physicochemical variables at high temporal resolution. The measurements revealed strong fluctuations in CO2 and CH4, expressed as multi-day, diurnal and event-based variability.
Olivier Bouriaud, Ernst-Detlef Schulze, Konstantin Gregor, Issam Bourkhris, Peter Högberg, Roland Irslinger, Phillip Papastefanou, Julia Pongratz, Anja Rammig, Riccardo Valentini, and Christian Körner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3092, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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The impact of harvesting on forests' carbon sink capacities is debated. One view is that their sink strength is resilient to harvesting, the other that it disrupts these capacities. Our work shows that leaf area index (LAI) has been overlooked in this discussion. We found that temperate forests' carbon uptake is largely insensitive to variations in LAI beyond about 4 m² m-², but that forests operate at higher levels.
Allison Hogikyan and Laure Resplandy
Biogeosciences, 21, 4621–4636, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4621-2024, 2024
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Rising atmospheric CO2 influences ocean carbon chemistry, leading to ocean acidification. Global warming introduces spatial patterns in the intensity of ocean acidification. We show that the most prominent spatial patterns are controlled by warming-driven changes in rainfall and evaporation, not by the direct effect of warming on carbon chemistry and pH. These evaporation and rainfall patterns oppose acidification in saltier parts of the ocean and enhance acidification in fresher regions.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Juliette Bernard, Catherine Prigent, Carlos Jimenez, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Bernhard Lehner, Elodie Salmon, Philippe Ciais, Zhen Zhang, Shushi Peng, and Marielle Saunois
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-466, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-466, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Wetlands are responsible for about a third of global emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. We have developed the GIEMS-MethaneCentric (GIEMS-MC) dataset to represent the dynamics of wetland extent on a global scale (0.25°x0.25° resolution, monthly time step). This updated resource combines satellite data and existing wetland databases, covering 1992 to 2020. Consistent maps of other methane-emitting surface waters (lakes, rivers, reservoirs, rice paddies) are also provided.
Silvie Lainela, Erik Jacobs, Stella-Theresa Luik, Gregor Rehder, and Urmas Lips
Biogeosciences, 21, 4495–4519, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4495-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the variability of carbon dioxide and methane in the surface layer of the north-eastern basins of the Baltic Sea in 2018. We show that the shallower coastal areas have considerably higher spatial variability and seasonal amplitude of surface layer pCO2 and cCH4 than measured in the offshore areas of the Baltic Sea. Despite this high variability, caused mostly by coastal physical processes, the average annual air–sea CO2 fluxes differed only marginally between the sub-basins.
Mathieu Antoine François Poupon, Laure Resplandy, Jessica Garwood, Charles Stock, Niki Zadeh, and Jessica Luo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3058, 2024
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Zooplankton diel vertical migration (DVM) shapes ocean biogeochemical cycles. We present a new DVM model that reproduces migration depths observed in the North Atlantic Ocean. We show that chlorophyll shading contributes to reducing zooplankton migration depth and mainly controls its spatial and temporal variability. Thus, high chlorophyll concentrations may limit carbon sequestration caused by zooplankton migration despite the general abundance of zooplankton migration in these environments.
Liu Yan, Qiang Zhang, Bo Zheng, and Kebin He
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4497–4509, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4497-2024, 2024
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A new database of fuel-, vehicle-type-, and age-specific CO2 emissions from global on-road vehicles from 1970 to 2020 is developed with the fleet turnover model built in this study. Based on this database, the evolution of the global vehicle stock over 50 years is analyzed, the dominant emission contributors by vehicle and fuel type are identified, and the age distribution of on-road CO2 emissions is characterized further.
Jinghui Lian, Olivier Laurent, Mali Chariot, Luc Lienhardt, Michel Ramonet, Hervé Utard, Thomas Lauvaux, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Karina Cucchi, Laurent Millair, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5821–5839, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5821-2024, 2024
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We have designed and deployed a mid-cost medium-precision CO2 sensor monitoring network in Paris since July 2020. The data are automatically calibrated by a newly implemented data processing system. The accuracies of the mid-cost instruments vary from 1.0 to 2.4 ppm for hourly afternoon measurements. Our model–data analyses highlight prospects for integrating mid-cost instrument data with high-precision measurements to improve fine-scale CO2 emission quantification in urban areas.
Pharahilda M. Steur, Hubertus A. Scheeren, Gerbrand Koren, Getachew A. Adnew, Wouter Peters, and Harro A. J. Meijer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11005–11027, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11005-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11005-2024, 2024
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We present records of the triple oxygen isotope signature (Δ(17O)) of atmospheric CO2 obtained with laser absorption spectroscopy from two mid-latitude stations. Significant interannual variability is observed in both records. A model sensitivity study suggests that stratosphere–troposphere exchange, which carries high-Δ(17O) CO2 from the stratosphere into the troposphere, causes most of the variability. This makes Δ(17O) a potential tracer for stratospheric intrusions into the troposphere.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Jonathan Baker, Clément Bricaud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Lluis Castrillo, Lijing Cheng, Frederic Chevallier, Daniele Ciani, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Gilles Garric, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Kevin Hodges, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Thomas Lavergne, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Audrey Minière, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Ad Stoffelen, Sulian Thual, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, Chunxue Yang, and Hao Zuo
State Planet, 4-osr8, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, 2024
Tea Thum, Tuuli Miinalainen, Outi Seppälä, Holly Croft, Cheryl Rogers, Ralf Staebler, Silvia Caldararu, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2802, 2024
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Climate change has potential to influence the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems and here also nitrogen cycle is important. We used a terrestrial biosphere model QUINCY at mixed deciduous forest in Canada. We investigated the usefulness of using leaf area index and leaf chlorophyll content to improve the parameterization of the model. This work paves way for using spaceborn observations in the model parameterization, also including information on the nitrogen cycle.
Zhengyang Lin, Ling Huang, Hanqin Tian, Anping Chen, and Xuhui Wang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-170, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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Wildfires release large amounts of greenhouse gases, contributing to global warming. We developed a new model that provides near-real-time estimates of wildfire emissions in China. Our model improves the accuracy of burned area measurements and incorporates advanced data in fuel loads and emission factors. We found that most emissions come from agricultural fires, while emissions from forests and grasslands are decreasing. This model will help reduce the environmental impacts of wildfires.
Gabriela Sophia, Silvia Caldararu, Benjamin David Stocker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, 2024
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Through an extensive global dataset of leaf nutrient resorption and a multifactorial analysis, we show that the majority of spatial variation in nutrient resorption may be driven by leaf habit and type, with thicker, longer-lived leaves having lower resorption efficiencies. Climate, soil fertility and soil-related factors emerge as strong drivers with an additional effect on its role. These results are essential for comprehending plant nutrient status, plant productivity and nutrient cycling.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Richard Engelen, Sander Houweling, Dominik Brunner, Aki Tsuruta, Bradley Matthews, Prabir K. Patra, Dmitry Belikov, Rona L. Thompson, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wenxin Zhang, Arjo J. Segers, Giuseppe Etiope, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Philippe Peylin, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Robbie M. Andrew, David Bastviken, Antoine Berchet, Grégoire Broquet, Giulia Conchedda, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Gütschow, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Ronny Lauerwald, Tiina Markkanen, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Isabelle Pison, Pierre Regnier, Espen Solum, Marko Scholze, Maria Tenkanen, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, and John R. Worden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4325–4350, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, 2024
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This study provides an overview of data availability from observation- and inventory-based CH4 emission estimates. It systematically compares them and provides recommendations for robust comparisons, aiming to steadily engage more parties in using observational methods to complement their UNFCCC submissions. Anticipating improvements in atmospheric modelling and observations, future developments need to resolve knowledge gaps in both approaches and to better quantify remaining uncertainty.
Cynthia Whaley, Montana Etten-Bohm, Courtney Schumacher, Ayodeji Akingunola, Vivek Arora, Jason Cole, Michael Lazare, David Plummer, Knut von Salzen, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, 2024
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This paper describes how lightning was added as a process in the Canadian Earth System Model in order to interactively respond to climate changes. As lightning is an important cause of global wildfires, this new model development allows for more realistic projections of how wildfires may change in the future, responding to a changing climate.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
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Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1941, 2024
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We studied the coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle effect in Earth System Models by developing a carbon-nitrogen coupling in a reduced complexity model, MAGICC. Our model successfully emulated the global carbon-nitrogen cycle dynamics seen in CMIP6 complex models. Results indicate consistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100. Our findings suggest that nitrogen deficiency could reduce future land carbon sequestration.
Josselin Doc, Michel Ramonet, François-Marie Bréon, Delphine Combaz, Mali Chariot, Morgan Lopez, Marc Delmotte, Cristelle Cailteau-Fischbach, Guillaume Nief, Nathanaël Laporte, Thomas Lauvaux, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2826, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Description of the network for measuring greenhouse gas concentrations in the Paris region and analysis of eight years of continuous monitoring.
Jaime A. Riano Sanchez, Nicolas Vuichard, and Philippe Peylin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1227–1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1227-2024, 2024
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We quantify the projected change in land carbon store (CLCS) for different socioeconomic scenarios (SSPs). Using factorial simulations of a land surface model, we estimate the CLCS uncertainties associated with land use change (LUC) and nitrogen (N) deposition trajectories. Our study highlights the need for delivering additional LUC and N deposition trajectories from integrated assessment models for each SSP in order to accurately assess their impacts on the carbon cycle and climate.
Thi Lan Anh Dinh, Daniel Goll, Philippe Ciais, and Ronny Lauerwald
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6725–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, 2024
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The study assesses the performance of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) ORCHIDEE in capturing the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks across Europe. Comparisons with observations reveal that the model accurately represents carbon fluxes and stocks. Despite the underestimations in certain land-use conversions, the model describes general trends in soil carbon response to land-use change, aligning with the site observations.
Timothée Bourgeois, Olivier Torres, Friederike Fröb, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Giang T. Tran, Jörg Schwinger, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jean Negrel, David Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2768, 2024
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Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
Misa Ishizawa, Douglas Chan, Doug Worthy, Elton Chan, Felix Vogel, Joe R. Melton, and Vivek K. Arora
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10013–10038, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10013-2024, 2024
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Methane (CH4) emissions in Canada for 2007–2017 were estimated using Canada’s surface greenhouse gas measurements. The estimated emissions show no significant trend, but emission uncertainty was reduced as more measurement sites became available. Notably for climate change, we find the wetland CH4 emissions show a positive correlation with surface air temperature in summer. Canada’s measurement network could monitor future CH4 emission changes and compliance with climate change mitigation goals.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
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The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2344, 2024
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Stratospheric Aerosol Injections (SAI) could be used alongside mitigation to reduce global warming. Previous studies suggest that more atmospheric CO2 is taken up when SAI is deployed. Here we look at the entire trajectory of SAI deployment from initialization to after termination and show how the initial carbon uptake benefit and therefore lower negative emission burden is reduced in later stages of SAI where it turns into an additional burden to compensate for reduced natural carbon uptake.
Minna Ma, Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-29, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD
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A new model (ORCHIDEE-NLAT) was developed to estimate lateral nitrogen (N) transport from land to oceans through rivers at daily step. The model includes transport of water and N, as well as the decomposition of dissolved organic N and particulate organic, and denitrification of dissolved inorganic N. Model evaluations indicate that ORCHIDEE-NLAT reproduce observed rates and seasonal variations of water discharge and total N flow well.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, 2024
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Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the CMIP6-LUMIP project. We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.20 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasise the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Yosuke Niwa, Yasunori Tohjima, Yukio Terao, Tazu Saeki, Akihiko Ito, Taku Umezawa, Kyohei Yamada, Motoki Sasakawa, Toshinobu Machida, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hideki Nara, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Hitoshi Mukai, Yukio Yoshida, Shinji Morimoto, Shinya Takatsuji, Kazuhiro Tsuboi, Yousuke Sawa, Hidekazu Matsueda, Kentaro Ishijima, Ryo Fujita, Daisuke Goto, Xin Lan, Kenneth Schuldt, Michal Heliasz, Tobias Biermann, Lukasz Chmura, Jarsolaw Necki, and Irène Xueref-Remy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2457, 2024
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This study estimated regional and sectoral emission contributions to the unprecedented surge of atmospheric methane for 2020–2022. The methane is the second most important greenhouse gas and its emissions reduction is urgently required to mitigate the global warming. Numerical modeling-based estimates with three different sets of atmospheric observations consistently suggested large contributions of biogenic emissions from South Asia and Southeast Asia to the surge of atmospheric methane.
Fang Li, Zhimin Zhou, Samuel Levis, Stephen Sitch, Felicity Hayes, Zhaozhong Feng, Peter B. Reich, Zhiyi Zhao, and Yanqing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6173–6193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, 2024
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A new scheme is developed to model the surface ozone damage to vegetation in regional and global process-based models. Based on 4210 data points from ozone experiments, it accurately reproduces statistically significant linear or nonlinear photosynthetic and stomatal responses to ozone in observations for all vegetation types. It also enables models to implicitly capture the variability in plant ozone tolerance and the shift among species within a vegetation type.
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan C. Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2441, 2024
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Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use model projections, including CO2 fertilization among other upgrades, from the MAgPIE and IMAGE models under three scenarios, highlighting differences, uncertainty hotspots, and harmonization effects. Key findings include reduced bioenergy crop demand projections and differences in grassland area allocation and sizes, with socioeconomic-climate scenarios' largest effect on variance starting in 2030.
Friedrich J. Bohn, Ana Bastos, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Niak Sian Koh, Giles B. Sioen, Bram Buscher, Louise Carver, Fabrice DeClerck, Moritz Drupp, Robert Fletcher, Matthew Forrest, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Gregor Hagedorn, Martin Hänsel, Jessica Hetzer, Thomas Hickler, Cornelia B. Krug, Stasja Koot, Xiuzhen Li, Amy Luers, Shelby Matevich, H. Damon Matthews, Ina C. Meier, Awaz Mohamed, Sungmin O, David Obura, Ben Orlove, Rene Orth, Laura Pereira, Markus Reichstein, Lerato Thakholi, Peter Verburg, and Yuki Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, 2024
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An interdisciplinary collaboration of 35 international researchers from 34 institutions highlighting nine recent findings in biosphere research. Within these themes, they discuss issues arising from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, and highlight the co-benefits of nature-based solutions and ecosystem services. They discuss recent findings in the context of global trade and international policy frameworks, and highlight lessons for local implementation of nature-based solutions.
Matthew W. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Maria Lucia F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Andrew J. Hartley, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Joe R. McNorton, Fiona R. Spuler, Jakob B. Wessel, John T. Abatzoglou, Liana O. Anderson, Niels Andela, Sally Archibald, Dolors Armenteras, Eleanor Burke, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Hamish Clarke, Stefan H. Doerr, Paulo M. Fernandes, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Harris, Piyush Jain, Crystal A. Kolden, Tiina Kurvits, Seppe Lampe, Sarah Meier, Stacey New, Mark Parrington, Morgane M. G. Perron, Yuquan Qu, Natasha S. Ribeiro, Bambang H. Saharjo, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Veerachai Tanpipat, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, and Gavriil Xanthopoulos
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024
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This inaugural State of Wildfires report catalogues extreme fires of the 2023–2024 fire season. For key events, we analyse their predictability and drivers and attribute them to climate change and land use. We provide a seasonal outlook and decadal projections. Key anomalies occurred in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia, with other high-impact events catalogued worldwide. Climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fires, and mitigation is required to lessen future risk.
Mathew Williams, David T. Milodowski, Thomas Luke Smallman, Kyle G. Dexter, Gabi C. Hegerl, Iain M. McNicol, Michael O'Sullivan, Carla M. Roesch, Casey M. Ryan, Stephen Sitch, and Aude Valade
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2497, 2024
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Southern African woodlands are important in both regional and global carbon cycles. A new carbon analysis created by combining satellite data with ecosystem modelling shows that the region has a neutral C balance overall, but with important spatial variations. Patterns of biomass and C balance across the region are the outcome of climate controls on production, vegetation-fire interactions, which determine mortality of vegetation, and spatial variations in vegetation function.
Nil Irvalı, Ulysses S. Ninnemann, Are Olsen, Neil L. Rose, David J. R. Thornalley, Tor L. Mjell, and François Counillon
Geochronology, 6, 449–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-449-2024, 2024
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Marine sediments are excellent archives for reconstructing past changes in climate and ocean circulation. Yet, dating uncertainties, particularly during the 20th century, pose major challenges. Here we propose a novel chronostratigraphic approach that uses anthropogenic signals, such as the oceanic 13C Suess effect and spheroidal carbonaceous fly-ash particles, to reduce age model uncertainties in high-resolution marine archives over the 20th century.
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2387, 2024
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Land-cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) can alter climate even in intact areas, causing carbon changes in remote areas. This study is the first to assess these effects, finding they substantially alter global carbon dynamics, changing terrestrial stocks by up to dozens of gigatons. These results are vital for scientific and policy assessments, given the expected role of LCLMCs in achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming below 1.5 °C.
Nina Raoult, Simon Beylat, James M. Salter, Frédéric Hourdin, Vladislav Bastrikov, Catherine Ottlé, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5779–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, 2024
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We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However, these complex models do not always simulate what we observe in real life, limiting their effectiveness. To improve their accuracy, we use sophisticated statistical and computational techniques. We test a technique called history matching against more common approaches. This method adapts well to these models, helping us better understand how they work and therefore how to make them more realistic.
Hui Li, Jiaxin Qiu, and Bo Zheng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1986, 2024
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We conduct a sensitivity analysis on various factors including prior, model resolution, satellite constraint, and inversion system configuration to assess the vulnerability of emission estimates across temporal, sectoral, and regional dimensions. Our analysis first reveals the robustness of emissions estimated by this air pollution satellite sensor-based CO2 emission inversion system, with relative change between tests and Base inversion below 4.0 % for national annual NOx and CO2 emissions.
Bernhard Lehner, Mira Anand, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Florence Tan, Filipe Aires, George H. Allen, Pilippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Nick Davidson, C. Max Finlayson, Thomas Gumbricht, Lammert Hilarides, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Maartje C. Korver, Peter B. McIntyre, Szabolcs Nagy, David Olefeldt, Tamlin M. Pavelsky, Jean-Francois Pekel, Benjamin Poulter, Catherine Prigent, Jida Wang, Thomas A. Worthington, Dai Yamazaki, and Michele Thieme
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-204, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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The Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD) version 2 distinguishes a total of 33 non-overlapping wetland classes, providing a static map of the world’s inland surface waters. It contains cell fractions of wetland extents per class at a grid cell resolution of ~500 m. The total combined extent of all classes including all inland and coastal waterbodies and wetlands of all inundation frequencies—that is, the maximum extent—covers 18.2 million km2, equivalent to 13.4 % of total global land area.
Jens Krause, Peter Anthoni, Mike Harfoot, Moritz Kupisch, and Almut Arneth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1646, 2024
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While animal biodiversity is facing a global crisis as more and more species are becoming endangered or extinct, the role of animals for the functioning of ecosystems is still not fully understood. We contribute to bridging this gap by coupling a animal population model with a vegetation and thus enable future research in this topic.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
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The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, and Libo Wang
Biogeosciences, 21, 3339–3371, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, 2024
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Terrestrial biosphere models can either prescribe the geographical distribution of biomes or simulate them dynamically, capturing climate-change-driven biome shifts. We isolate and examine the differences between these different land cover implementations. We find that the simulated terrestrial carbon sink at the end of the 21st century is twice as large in simulations with dynamic land cover than in simulations with prescribed land cover due to important range shifts in the Arctic and Amazon.
Li-Qing Jiang, Tim P. Boyer, Christopher R. Paver, Hyelim Yoo, James R. Reagan, Simone R. Alin, Leticia Barbero, Brendan R. Carter, Richard A. Feely, and Rik Wanninkhof
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3383–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3383-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we unveil a data product featuring ten coastal ocean acidification variables. These indicators are provided on 1°×1° spatial grids at 14 standardized depth levels, ranging from the surface to a depth of 500 m, along the North American ocean margins.
Mingrui Ma, Jiachen Cao, Dan Tong, Bo Zheng, and Yu Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1769, 2024
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We combined two global climate change pathways and three national emission control scenarios to analyze the future evolution of Nr deposition till 2060s in China with air quality modeling. We demonstrate China’s clean air and carbon neutrality policies would overcome the adverse effect of climate change and efficiently reduce Nr deposition. The outflow of Nr fluxes from mainland China to West Pacific would also be clearly reduced from continuous stringent emission controls.
Fabian Maier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ingeborg Levin, Christoph Gerbig, Maksym Gachkivskyi, and Samuel Hammer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8183–8203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8183-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8183-2024, 2024
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We investigate the usage of discrete radiocarbon (14C)-based fossil fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO2) concentration estimates vs. continuous carbon monoxide (CO)-based ffCO2 estimates to evaluate the seasonal cycle of ffCO2 emissions in an urban region with an inverse modeling framework. We find that the CO-based ffCO2 estimates allow us to reconstruct robust seasonal cycles, which show the distinct COVID-19 drawdown in 2020 and can be used to validate emission inventories.
Rodrigo Rivera-Martinez, Pramod Kumar, Olivier Laurent, Gregoire Broquet, Christopher Caldow, Ford Cropley, Diego Santaren, Adil Shah, Cécile Mallet, Michel Ramonet, Leonard Rivier, Catherine Juery, Olivier Duclaux, Caroline Bouchet, Elisa Allegrini, Hervé Utard, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4257–4290, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4257-2024, 2024
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We explore the use of metal oxide semiconductors (MOSs) as a low-cost alternative for detecting and measuring CH4 emissions from industrial facilities. MOSs were exposed to several controlled releases to test their accuracy in detecting and quantifying emissions. Two reconstruction models were compared, and emission estimates were computed using a Gaussian dispersion model. Findings show that MOSs can provide accurate emission estimates with a 25 % emission rate error and a 9.5 m location error.
Wolfgang Knorr, Matthew Williams, Tea Thum, Thomas Kaminski, Michael Voßbeck, Marko Scholze, Tristan Quaife, Luke Smallmann, Susan Steele-Dunne, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Tim Green, Sönke Zähle, Mika Aurela, Alexandre Bouvet, Emanuel Bueechi, Wouter Dorigo, Tarek El-Madany, Mirco Migliavacca, Marika Honkanen, Yann Kerr, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Arnaud Mialon, Tuuli Miinalainen, Gaetan Pique, Amanda Ojasalo, Shaun Quegan, Peter Rayner, Pablo Reyes-Muñoz, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Mike Schwank, Jochem Verrelst, Songyan Zhu, Dirk Schüttemeyer, and Matthias Drusch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1534, 2024
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When it comes to climate change, the land surfaces are where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us see what changes on our lands.
Chuanlong Zhou, Biqing Zhu, Antoine Halff, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Simon Bowring, Simon Ben Arous, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-173, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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After Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe's energy dynamics shifted significantly. Our study introduces updated datasets tracking changes in natural gas supply, usage, and transmission within the EU27&UK. We discovered that Europe adapted to losing Russian gas by increasing LNG imports and shifting to renewables. Our insights could shape future energy policies and climate research.
Santiago Botía, Saqr Munassar, Thomas Koch, Danilo Custodio, Luana S. Basso, Shujiro Komiya, Jost V. Lavric, David Walter, Manuel Gloor, Giordane Martins, Stijn Naus, Gerbrand Koren, Ingrid Luijkx, Stijn Hantson, John B. Miller, Wouter Peters, Christian Rödenbeck, and Christoph Gerbig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1735, 2024
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This study uses CO2 data from the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory and airborne profiles to estimate net carbon exchange. We found that the biogeographic Amazon is a net carbon sink, while the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes are net carbon sources, resulting in an overall neutral balance. To further reduce the uncertainty in our estimates we call for an expansion of the monitoring capacity, especially in the Amazon-Andes foothills.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Liting Hu, Adrien Martinez, Marielle Saunois, Rona L. Thompson, Kushal Tibrewal, Wouter Peters, Brendan Byrne, Giacomo Grassi, Paul I. Palmer, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Xuekun Fang, Tengjiao Wang, Hanqin Tian, Katsumasa Tanaka, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin Poulter, Clément Albergel, Aki Tsuruta, Shamil Maksyutov, Rajesh Janardanan, Yosuke Niwa, Bo Zheng, Joël Thanwerdas, Dmitry Belikov, Arjo Segers, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-103, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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This study reconciles national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories with updated atmospheric inversion results to evaluate discrepancies for three main GHG fluxes at the national level. Compared to the previous study, new satellite-based CO2 inversions were included. Additionally, an updated mask of managed lands was used, improving agreement for Brazil and Canada. The proposed methodology can be regularly applied as a check to assess the gap between top-down inversions and bottom-up inventories.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, and Julia Marshall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1382, 2024
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The carbon uptake period (CUP) refers to the time of the year when there is net absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere to the land. Several studies have assessed changes in CUP based on seasonal metrics from CO2 mole fraction measurements to understand the response of terrestrial biosphere to climate variations. However, we find that the CUP derived from CO2 mole fraction measurements are not likely to provide an accurate magnitude of the actual changes occurring over the surface.
Kim A. P. Faassen, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Raquel González-Armas, Bert G. Heusinkveld, Ivan Mammarella, Wouter Peters, and Ingrid T. Luijkx
Biogeosciences, 21, 3015–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3015-2024, 2024
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The ratio between atmospheric O2 and CO2 can be used to characterize the carbon balance at the surface. By combining a model and observations from the Hyytiälä forest (Finland), we show that using atmospheric O2 and CO2 measurements from a single height provides a weak constraint on the surface CO2 exchange because large-scale processes such as entrainment confound this signal. We therefore recommend always using multiple heights of O2 and CO2 measurements to study surface CO2 exchange.
K. Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1431, 2024
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The study aimed to improve the representation of spring wheat and rice in the CLM5. The modified CLM5 model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Mengjie Han, Qing Zhao, Xili Wang, Ying-Ping Wang, Philippe Ciais, Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Zhe Zhao, Zhixuan Guo, Chen Wang, Wei Zhuang, Fengchang Wu, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4871–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, 2024
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The impact of biochar (BC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is not represented in most land carbon models used for assessing land-based climate change mitigation. Our study develops a BC model that incorporates our current understanding of BC effects on SOC based on a soil carbon model (MIMICS). The BC model can reproduce the SOC changes after adding BC, providing a useful tool to couple dynamic land models to evaluate the effectiveness of BC application for CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
Frauke Bunsen, Judith Hauck, Lars Nerger, and Sinhué Torres-Valdés
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1750, 2024
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Computer models are used to derive estimates of the ocean CO2 uptake. Because such idealized models don't always correspond precisely to the real-world, we combine real-world observations of ocean temperature and salinity with a model, and study the effect on the modeled air-sea CO2 flux (2010–2020). The corrections of temperature and salinity have their largest effect on regional CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean during winter, but a comparatively small effect on the global ocean CO2 uptake.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4727–4754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, 2024
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The ORCHIDEE-MICT model can simulate the carbon cycle and hydrology at a sub-grid scale but energy budgets only at a grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found warmer surface and soil temperatures, higher soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared with the original version.
Gerrit Kuhlmann, Erik Koene, Sandro Meier, Diego Santaren, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Janne Hakkarainen, Janne Nurmela, Laia Amorós, Johanna Tamminen, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4773–4789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, 2024
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We present a Python software library for data-driven emission quantification (ddeq). It can be used to determine the emissions of hot spots (cities, power plants and industry) from remote sensing images using different methods. ddeq can be extended for new datasets and methods, providing a powerful community tool for users and developers. The application of the methods is shown using Jupyter notebooks included in the library.
Yitong Yao, Philippe Ciais, Emilie Joetzjer, Wei Li, Lei Zhu, Yujie Wang, Christian Frankenberg, and Nicolas Viovy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 763–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024, 2024
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Elevated CO2 concentration (eCO2) is critical for shaping the future path of forest carbon uptake, while uncertainties remain about concurrent carbon loss. Here, we found that eCO2 might amplify competition-induced carbon loss, while the extent of drought-induced carbon loss hinges on the balance between heightened biomass density and water-saving benefits. This is the first time that such carbon loss responses to ongoing climate change have been quantified separately over the Amazon rainforest.
Rebecca M. Varney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 21, 2759–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, 2024
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Soil carbon is the largest store of carbon on the land surface of Earth and is known to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Understanding this future response is vital to successfully meeting Paris Agreement targets, which rely heavily on carbon uptake by the land surface. In this study, the individual responses of soil carbon are quantified and compared amongst CMIP6 Earth system models used within the most recent IPCC report, and the role of soils in the land response is highlighted.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Nicolas Metzl, Claire Lo Monaco, Coraline Leseurre, Céline Ridame, Gilles Reverdin, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, and Marion Gehlen
Ocean Sci., 20, 725–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-725-2024, 2024
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In the southern Indian Ocean, south of the polar front, an observed increase of sea surface fCO2 and a decrease of pH over 1985–2021 are mainly driven by anthropogenic CO2 uptake, but in the last decade (2010–2020) fCO2 and pH were stable in summer, highlighting the competitive balance between anthropogenic CO2 and primary production. In the water column the increase of anthropogenic CO2 concentrations leads to migration of the aragonite saturation state from 600 m in 1985 up to 400 m in 2021.
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Joseph G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihito Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joel Thanwerdas, Hanquin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido van der Werf, Doug E. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesize and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progresses in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
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This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Nikola Besic, Nicolas Picard, Cédric Vega, Lionel Hertzog, Jean-Pierre Renaud, Fajwel Fogel, Agnès Pellissier-Tanon, Gabriel Destouet, Milena Planells-Rodriguez, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-95, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The creation of advanced mapping models for forest attributes, utilizing remote sensing data and incorporating machine or deep learning methods, has become a key area of interest in the domain of forest observation and monitoring. This paper introduces a method where we blend and collectively interpret five models dedicated to estimating forest canopy height. We achieve this through Bayesian model averaging, offering a comprehensive approach to height estimation in forest ecosystems.
Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata, and Olivier Boucher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1553, 2024
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Reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases helps limit global warming alongside CO2 reduction. We compared the effects using an Earth System Model. We show that the carbon cycle feedback differ between CO2 and non-CO2 gases, with the presence or absence of CO2 change in the atmosphere influencing their effects. The study underscores the need to consider interactions between CO2 and non-CO2 impacts on the carbon cycle in climate models and emission reduction strategies.
Juliette Bernard, Marielle Saunois, Elodie Salmon, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Antoine Berchet, Penélope Serrano-Ortiz, Palingamoorthy Gnanamoorthy, and Joachim Jansen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1331, 2024
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Despite their importance, uncertainties remain in estimating methane emissions from wetlands. Here, a simplified model that operates at a global scale is developed. Taking advantage of advances in remote sensing data and in situ observations, the model effectively reproduces the spatial and temporal patterns of emissions, albeit with limitations in the tropics due to data scarcity. This model, while simple, can provide valuable insights for sensitivity analyses.
Joshua L. Laughner, Geoffrey C. Toon, Joseph Mendonca, Christof Petri, Sébastien Roche, Debra Wunch, Jean-Francois Blavier, David W. T. Griffith, Pauli Heikkinen, Ralph F. Keeling, Matthäus Kiel, Rigel Kivi, Coleen M. Roehl, Britton B. Stephens, Bianca C. Baier, Huilin Chen, Yonghoon Choi, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Joshua P. DiGangi, Jochen Gross, Benedikt Herkommer, Pascal Jeseck, Thomas Laemmel, Xin Lan, Erin McGee, Kathryn McKain, John Miller, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Hirofumi Ohyama, David F. Pollard, Markus Rettinger, Haris Riris, Constantina Rousogenous, Mahesh Kumar Sha, Kei Shiomi, Kimberly Strong, Ralf Sussmann, Yao Té, Voltaire A. Velazco, Steven C. Wofsy, Minqiang Zhou, and Paul O. Wennberg
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2197–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2197-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a new version, called GGG2020, of a data set containing column-integrated observations of greenhouse and related gases (including CO2, CH4, CO, and N2O) made by ground stations located around the world. Compared to the previous version (GGG2014), improvements have been made toward site-to-site consistency. This data set plays a key role in validating space-based greenhouse gas observations and in understanding the carbon cycle.
Alban Planchat, Laurent Bopp, Lester Kwiatkowski, and Olivier Torres
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 565–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-565-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-565-2024, 2024
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Ocean acidification is likely to impact all stages of the ocean carbonate pump. We show divergent responses of CaCO3 export throughout this century in earth system models, with anomalies by 2100 ranging from −74 % to +23 % under a high-emission scenario. While we confirm the limited impact of carbonate pump anomalies on 21st century ocean carbon uptake and acidification, we highlight a potentially abrupt shift in CaCO3 dissolution from deep to subsurface waters beyond 2100.
Amanda R. Fay, David R. Munro, Galen A. McKinley, Denis Pierrot, Stewart C. Sutherland, Colm Sweeney, and Rik Wanninkhof
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2123–2139, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2123-2024, 2024
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Presented here is a near-global monthly climatological estimate of the difference between atmosphere and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. The ocean's ability to take up carbon, both now and in the future, is defined by this difference in concentrations. With over 30 million measurements of surface ocean carbon over the last 40 years and utilization of an extrapolation technique, a mean estimate of surface ocean ΔfCO2 is presented.
Thea H. Heimdal, Galen A. McKinley, Adrienne J. Sutton, Amanda R. Fay, and Lucas Gloege
Biogeosciences, 21, 2159–2176, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2159-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2159-2024, 2024
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Measurements of ocean carbon are limited in time and space. Machine learning algorithms are therefore used to reconstruct ocean carbon where observations do not exist. Improving these reconstructions is important in order to accurately estimate how much carbon the ocean absorbs from the atmosphere. In this study, we find that a small addition of observations from the Southern Ocean, obtained by autonomous sampling platforms, could significantly improve the reconstructions.
Siv K. Lauvset, Nico Lange, Toste Tanhua, Henry C. Bittig, Are Olsen, Alex Kozyr, Marta Álvarez, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Peter J. Brown, Brendan R. Carter, Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, Mario Hoppema, Matthew P. Humphreys, Masao Ishii, Emil Jeansson, Akihiko Murata, Jens Daniel Müller, Fiz F. Pérez, Carsten Schirnick, Reiner Steinfeldt, Toru Suzuki, Adam Ulfsbo, Anton Velo, Ryan J. Woosley, and Robert M. Key
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2047–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2047-2024, 2024
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GLODAP is a data product for ocean inorganic carbon and related biogeochemical variables measured by the chemical analysis of water bottle samples from scientific cruises. GLODAPv2.2023 is the fifth update of GLODAPv2 from 2016. The data that are included have been subjected to extensive quality controlling, including systematic evaluation of measurement biases. This version contains data from 1108 hydrographic cruises covering the world's oceans from 1972 to 2021.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Biogeosciences, 21, 1923–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024, 2024
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We study the timescale dependence of airborne fraction and underlying feedbacks by a theory of the climate–carbon system. Using simulations we show the predictive power of this theory and find that (1) this fraction generally decreases for increasing timescales and (2) at all timescales the total feedback is negative and the model spread in a single feedback causes the spread in the airborne fraction. Our study indicates that those are properties of the system, independently of the scenario.
Léna Gurriaran, Yannig Goude, Katsumasa Tanaka, Biqing Zhu, Zhu Deng, Xuanren Song, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2663–2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2663-2024, 2024
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We developed a data-driven model simulating daily regional power demand based on climate and socioeconomic variables. Our model was applied to eight countries or regions (Australia, Brazil, China, EU, India, Russia, South Africa, US), identifying influential factors and their relationship with power demand. Our findings highlight the significance of economic indicators in addition to temperature, showcasing country-specific variations. This research aids energy planning and emission reduction.
Hannah Chawner, Eric Saboya, Karina E. Adcock, Tim Arnold, Yuri Artioli, Caroline Dylag, Grant L. Forster, Anita Ganesan, Heather Graven, Gennadi Lessin, Peter Levy, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Alistair Manning, Penelope A. Pickers, Chris Rennick, Christian Rödenbeck, and Matthew Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4231–4252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4231-2024, 2024
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The quantity of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), derived from coincident measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and oxygen (O2), has been proposed as a tracer for fossil fuel CO2 emissions. In this model sensitivity study, we examine the use of APO for this purpose in the UK and compare our model to observations. We find that our model simulations are most sensitive to uncertainties relating to ocean fluxes and boundary conditions.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Qing Ying, Benjamin Poulter, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Lori Bruhwiler, Youmi Oh, Brendan M. Rogers, Susan M. Natali, Hilary Sullivan, Luke D. Schiferl, Clayton Elder, Olli Peltola, Annett Bartsch, Amanda Armstrong, Ankur R. Desai, Eugénie Euskirchen, Mathias Göckede, Bernhard Lehner, Mats B. Nilsson, Matthias Peichl, Oliver Sonnentag, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Torsten Sachs, Aram Kalhori, Masahito Ueyama, and Zhen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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We present daily methane fluxes of northern wetlands at 10-km resolution during 2016–2022 (WetCH4) derived from a novel machine-learning framework with improved accuracy. We estimated an average annual CH4 emissions of 20.8 ±2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1. Emissions were intensified in 2016, 2020, and 2022, with the largest interannual variations coming from West Siberia. Continued, all-season tower observations and improved soil moisture products are needed for future improvement of CH4 upscaling.
Lingbo Li, Hong-Yi Li, Guta Abeshu, Jinyun Tang, L. Ruby Leung, Chang Liao, Zeli Tan, Hanqin Tian, Peter Thornton, and Xiaojuan Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-43, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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We have developed a new map that reveals how organic carbon from soil leaches into headwater streams over the contiguous United States. We use advanced artificial intelligence techniques and a massive amount of data, including observations at over 2,500 gauges and a wealth of climate and environmental information. The map is a critical step in understanding and predicting how carbon moves through our environment, hence a useful tool for tackling climate challenges.
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 307–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-307-2024, 2024
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Most solar radiation modification (SRM) simulations assume no physical coupling between mitigation and SRM. We analyze the impact of SRM on photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) and find that almost all regions have reduced PV and CSP potential compared to a mitigated or unmitigated scenario, especially in the middle and high latitudes. This suggests that SRM could pose challenges for meeting energy demands with solar renewable resources.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
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Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Melanie A. Thurner, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Anja Rammig, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 1391–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, 2024
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Due to their crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems, we implemented mycorrhizal fungi into the QUINCY terrestrial biosphere model. Fungi interact with mineral and organic soil to support plant N uptake and, thus, plant growth. Our results suggest that the effect of mycorrhizal interactions on simulated ecosystem dynamics is minor under constant environmental conditions but necessary to reproduce and understand observed patterns under changing conditions, such as rising atmospheric CO2.
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Zun Yin, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2141–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, 2024
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We show a new irrigation scheme included in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The new irrigation scheme restrains irrigation due to water shortage, includes water adduction, and represents environmental limits and facilities to access water, due to representing infrastructure in a simple way. Our results show that the new irrigation scheme helps simulate acceptable land surface conditions and fluxes in irrigated areas, even if there are difficulties due to shortcomings and limited information.
Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Tobias Steinhoff, Birgit Klein, Henry Bittig, and Arne Körtzinger
Biogeosciences, 21, 1191–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1191-2024, 2024
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The marine CO2 system can be measured independently and continuously by BGC-Argo floats since numerous pH sensors have been developed to suit these autonomous measurements platforms. By applying the Argo correction routines to float pH data acquired in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, we report the uncertainty and lack of objective criteria associated with the choice of the reference method as well the reference depth for the pH correction.
Michael Steiner, Wouter Peters, Ingrid Luijkx, Stephan Henne, Huilin Chen, Samuel Hammer, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2759–2782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2759-2024, 2024
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The Paris Agreement increased interest in estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of individual countries, but top-down emission estimation is not yet considered policy-relevant. It is therefore paramount to reduce large errors and to build systems that are based on the newest atmospheric transport models. In this study, we present the first application of ICON-ART in the inverse modeling of GHG fluxes with an ensemble Kalman filter and present our results for European CH4 emissions.
Nina Raoult, Louis-Axel Edouard-Rambaut, Nicolas Vuichard, Vladislav Bastrikov, Anne Sofie Lansø, Bertrand Guenet, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 21, 1017–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, 2024
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Observations are used to reduce uncertainty in land surface models (LSMs) by optimising poorly constraining parameters. However, optimising against current conditions does not necessarily ensure that the parameters treated as invariant will be robust in a changing climate. Manipulation experiments offer us a unique chance to optimise our models under different (here atmospheric CO2) conditions. By using these data in optimisations, we gain confidence in the future projections of LSMs.
Samuel Upton, Markus Reichstein, Fabian Gans, Wouter Peters, Basil Kraft, and Ana Bastos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2555–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, 2024
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Data-driven eddy-covariance upscaled estimates of the global land–atmosphere net CO2 exchange (NEE) show important mismatches with regional and global estimates based on atmospheric information. To address this, we create a model with a dual constraint based on bottom-up eddy-covariance data and top-down atmospheric inversion data. Our model overcomes shortcomings of each approach, producing improved NEE estimates from local to global scale, helping to reduce uncertainty in the carbon budget.
Martin Butzin, Ying Ye, Christoph Völker, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, and Peter Köhler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, 2024
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In this paper we describe the implementation of the carbon isotopes 13C and 14C into the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3 and present results of long-term test simulations. Our model results are largely consistent with marine carbon isotope reconstructions for the pre-anthropogenic period, but also exhibit some discrepancies.
Camilla Therese Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Eszter Kovacs, Gregory Munday, Chris Huntingford, Chris Jones, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Andy Wiltshire, Laila Gohar, and Rebecca Varney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2932, 2024
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emission scenarios and rapidly provide regional impacts information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales including analysis of many important variables for impacts assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios giving confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Astrid Müller, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Takafumi Sugita, Prabir K. Patra, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Toshinobu Machida, Isamu Morino, André Butz, and Kei Shiomi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1297–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1297-2024, 2024
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Satellite CH4 observations with high accuracy are needed to understand changes in atmospheric CH4 concentrations. But over oceans, reference data are limited. We combine various ship and aircraft observations with the help of atmospheric chemistry models to derive observation-based column-averaged mixing ratios of CH4 (obs. XCH4). We discuss three different approaches and demonstrate the applicability of the new reference dataset for carbon cycle studies and satellite evaluation.
Pramod Kumar, Christopher Caldow, Grégoire Broquet, Adil Shah, Olivier Laurent, Camille Yver-Kwok, Sebastien Ars, Sara Defratyka, Susan Warao Gichuki, Luc Lienhardt, Mathis Lozano, Jean-Daniel Paris, Felix Vogel, Caroline Bouchet, Elisa Allegrini, Robert Kelly, Catherine Juery, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1229–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1229-2024, 2024
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This study presents a series of mobile measurement campaigns to monitor the CH4 emissions from an active landfill. These measurements are processed using a Gaussian plume model and atmospheric inversion techniques to quantify the landfill CH4 emissions. The methane emission estimates range between ~0.4 and ~7 t CH4 per day, and their variations are analyzed. The robustness of the estimates is assessed depending on the distance of the measurements from the potential sources in the landfill.
István Dunkl, Ana Bastos, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-7, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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While the climate mode El Niño-Southern Oscillation has a similar impact on CO2 growth rate in earth system models, there is a high uncertainty in the processes behind this relationship. We found a compensatory effect masking differences in the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate anomalies, and that the carbon fluxes contributing to global CO2 anomaly originate from different regions and are caused by different drivers.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, 2024
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This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations. We successfully identified problems of global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues that should be solved in the latest generation of models, land use change CO2 emissions.
Douglas McNeall, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1059–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1059-2024, 2024
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We can run simulations of the land surface and carbon cycle, using computer models to help us understand and predict climate change and its impacts. These simulations are not perfect reproductions of the real land surface, and that can make them less effective tools. We use new statistical and computational techniques to help us understand how different our models are from the real land surface, how to make them more realistic, and how well we can simulate past and future climate.
Henry C. Bittig, Erik Jacobs, Thomas Neumann, and Gregor Rehder
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 753–773, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-753-2024, 2024
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We present a pCO2 climatology of the Baltic Sea using a new approach to extrapolate from individual observations to the entire Baltic Sea. The extrapolation approach uses (a) a model to inform on how data at one location are connected to data at other locations, together with (b) very accurate pCO2 observations from 2003 to 2021 as the base data. The climatology can be used e.g. to assess uptake and release of CO2 or to identify extreme events.
Bertrand Guenet, Jérémie Orliac, Lauric Cécillon, Olivier Torres, Laura Sereni, Philip A. Martin, Pierre Barré, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 21, 657–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, 2024
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Heterotrophic respiration fluxes are a major flux between surfaces and the atmosphere, but Earth system models do not yet represent them correctly. Here we benchmarked Earth system models against observation-based products, and we identified the important mechanisms that need to be improved in the next-generation Earth system models.
Zhendong Wu, Alex Vermeulen, Yousuke Sawa, Ute Karstens, Wouter Peters, Remco de Kok, Xin Lan, Yasuyuki Nagai, Akinori Ogi, and Oksana Tarasova
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1249–1264, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1249-2024, 2024
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This study focuses on exploring the differences in calculating global surface CO2 and its growth rate, considering the impact of analysis methodologies and site selection. Our study reveals that the current global CO2 network has a good capacity to represent global surface CO2 and its growth rate, as well as trends in atmospheric CO2 mass changes. However, small differences exist in different analyses due to the impact of methodology and site selection.
Wolfgang Alexander Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Ana Bastos, Giulia Conchedda, Thomas Gasser, Giacomo Grassi, Richard A. Houghton, Francesco Nicola Tubiello, Stephen Sitch, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 605–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, 2024
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We provide and compare country-level estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes from a variety and large number of models, bottom-up estimates, and country reports for the period 1950–2021. Although net fluxes are small in many countries, they are often composed of large compensating emissions and removals. In many countries, the estimates agree well once their individual characteristics are accounted for, but in other countries, including some of the largest emitters, substantial uncertainties exist.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
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Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Cameron I. Ludemann, Nathan Wanner, Pauline Chivenge, Achim Dobermann, Rasmus Einarsson, Patricio Grassini, Armelle Gruere, Kevin Jackson, Luis Lassaletta, Federico Maggi, Griffiths Obli-Laryea, Martin K. van Ittersum, Srishti Vishwakarma, Xin Zhang, and Francesco N. Tubiello
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 525–541, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-525-2024, 2024
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Nutrient budgets help identify the excess or insufficient use of fertilizers and other nutrient sources in agriculture. They allow the calculation of indicators, such as the nutrient balance (surplus or deficit) and nutrient use efficiency, that help to monitor agricultural productivity and sustainability. This article describes a global cropland nutrient budget that provides data on 205 countries and territories from 1961 to 2020 (data available at https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/ESB).
Alizée Roobaert, Pierre Regnier, Peter Landschützer, and Goulven G. Laruelle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 421–441, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-421-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-421-2024, 2024
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The quantification of the coastal air–sea CO2 exchange (FCO2) has improved in recent years, but its multiannual variability remains unclear. This study, based on interpolated observations, reconstructs the longest global time series of coastal FCO2 (1982–2020). Results show the coastal ocean acts as a CO2 sink, with increasing intensity over time. This new coastal FCO2-product allows establishing regional carbon budgets and provides new constraints for closing the global carbon cycle.
Tsuneo Ono, Daisuke Muraoka, Masahiro Hayashi, Makiko Yorifuji, Akihiro Dazai, Shigeyuki Omoto, Takehiro Tanaka, Tomohiro Okamura, Goh Onitsuka, Kenji Sudo, Masahiko Fujii, Ryuji Hamanoue, and Masahide Wakita
Biogeosciences, 21, 177–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-177-2024, 2024
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We carried out parallel year-round observations of pH and related parameters in five stations around the Japan coast. It was found that short-term acidified situations with Omega_ar less than 1.5 occurred at four of five stations. Most of such short-term acidified events were related to the short-term low salinity event, and the extent of short-term pH drawdown at high freshwater input was positively correlated with the nutrient concentration of the main rivers that flow into the coastal area.
Mounia Mostefaoui, Philippe Ciais, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Prabir K. Patra, and Yolandi Ernst
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 245–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-245-2024, 2024
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Our aim is to assess African anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals by using different data products, including inventories and process-based models, and to compare their relative merits with inversion data coming from satellites. We show a good match among the various estimates in terms of overall trends at a regional level and on a decadal basis, but large differences exist even among similar data types, which is a limit to the possibility of verification of country-reported data.
Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Marion Gehlen, Nicolas Metzl, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 121–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-121-2024, 2024
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CMEMS-LSCE leads as the first global observation-based reconstructions of six carbonate system variables for the years 1985–2021 at monthly and 0.25° resolutions. The high-resolution reconstructions outperform their 1° counterpart in reproducing horizontal and temporal gradients of observations over various oceanic regions to nearshore time series stations. New datasets can be exploited in numerous studies, including monitoring changes in ocean carbon uptake and ocean acidification.
Christian Rödenbeck, Karina E. Adcock, Markus Eritt, Maksym Gachkivskyi, Christoph Gerbig, Samuel Hammer, Armin Jordan, Ralph F. Keeling, Ingeborg Levin, Fabian Maier, Andrew C. Manning, Heiko Moossen, Saqr Munassar, Penelope A. Pickers, Michael Rothe, Yasunori Tohjima, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15767–15782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, 2023
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The carbon dioxide content of the Earth atmosphere is increasing due to human emissions from burning of fossil fuels, causing global climate change. The strength of the fossil-fuel emissions is estimated by inventories based on energy data, but independent validation of these inventories has been recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we investigate the potential to validate inventories based on measurements of small changes in the atmospheric oxygen content.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
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Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Sam S. Rabin, William J. Sacks, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Lili Xia, and Alan Robock
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7253–7273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, 2023
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Climate models can help us simulate how the agricultural system will be affected by and respond to environmental change, but to be trustworthy they must realistically reproduce historical patterns. When farmers plant their crops and what varieties they choose will be important aspects of future adaptation. Here, we improve the crop component of a global model to better simulate observed growing seasons and examine the impacts on simulated crop yields and irrigation demand.
Lee de Mora, Ranjini Swaminathan, Richard P. Allan, Jerry C. Blackford, Douglas I. Kelley, Phil Harris, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Spencer Liddicoat, Robert J. Parker, Tristan Quaife, Jeremy Walton, and Andrew Yool
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1295–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023, 2023
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We investigate the flux of carbon from the atmosphere into the land surface and ocean for multiple models and over a range of future scenarios. We did this by comparing simulations after the same change in the global-mean near-surface temperature. Using this method, we show that the choice of scenario can impact the carbon allocation to the land, ocean, and atmosphere. Scenarios with higher emissions reach the same warming levels sooner, but also with relatively more carbon in the atmosphere.
Douglas E. J. Worthy, Michele K. Rauh, Lin Huang, Felix R. Vogel, Alina Chivulescu, Kenneth A. Masarie, Ray L. Langenfelds, Paul B. Krummel, Colin E. Allison, Andrew M. Crotwell, Monica Madronich, Gabrielle Pétron, Ingeborg Levin, Samuel Hammer, Sylvia Michel, Michel Ramonet, Martina Schmidt, Armin Jordan, Heiko Moossen, Michael Rothe, Ralph Keeling, and Eric J. Morgan
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 5909–5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5909-2023, 2023
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Network compatibility is important for inferring greenhouse gas fluxes at global or regional scales. This study is the first assessment of the measurement agreement among seven individual programs within the World Meteorological Organization community. It compares co-located flask air measurements at the Alert Observatory in Canada over a 17-year period. The results provide stronger confidence in the uncertainty estimation while using those datasets in various data interpretation applications.
Jan De Pue, Sebastian Wieneke, Ana Bastos, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Maral Maleki, Fabienne Maignan, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Ivan Janssens, and Manuela Balzarolo
Biogeosciences, 20, 4795–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, 2023
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The gross primary production (GPP) of the terrestrial biosphere is a key source of variability in the global carbon cycle. To estimate this flux, models can rely on remote sensing data (RS-driven), meteorological data (meteo-driven) or a combination of both (hybrid). An intercomparison of 11 models demonstrated that RS-driven models lack the sensitivity to short-term anomalies. Conversely, the simulation of soil moisture dynamics and stress response remains a challenge in meteo-driven models.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Robert Hallberg, Matthew J. Harrison, Katherine Hedstrom, Niki Zadeh, Michael Alexander, Wenhao Chen, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Hubert du Pontavice, Raphael Dussin, Fabian Gomez, Jasmin G. John, Dujuan Kang, Diane Lavoie, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Vincent Saba, Sang-Ik Shin, Samantha Siedlecki, and James Simkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6943–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, 2023
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We evaluate a model for northwest Atlantic Ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry that balances high resolution with computational economy by building on the new regional features in the MOM6 ocean model and COBALT biogeochemical model. We test the model's ability to simulate impactful historical variability and find that the model simulates the mean state and variability of most features well, which suggests the model can provide information to inform living-marine-resource applications.
Sam Ditkovsky, Laure Resplandy, and Julius Busecke
Biogeosciences, 20, 4711–4736, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4711-2023, 2023
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The global ocean is losing oxygen due to warming. The Indian Ocean, however, is gaining oxygen in large parts of the basin, and its naturally occurring oxygen minimum zone is not expanding. This rather unexpected response is explained by the unique ocean circulation of the Indian Ocean, which is bounded by a continent to the north but connected to the Pacific Ocean by the Indonesian Throughflow.
Karina E. Adcock, Penelope A. Pickers, Andrew C. Manning, Grant L. Forster, Leigh S. Fleming, Thomas Barningham, Philip A. Wilson, Elena A. Kozlova, Marica Hewitt, Alex J. Etchells, and Andy J. Macdonald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5183–5206, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5183-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5183-2023, 2023
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We present a 12-year time series of continuous atmospheric measurements of O2 and CO2 at the Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory in the United Kingdom. These measurements are combined into the term atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), a tracer that is not influenced by land biosphere processes. The datasets show a long-term increasing trend in CO2 and decreasing trends in O2 and APO between 2010 and 2021.
Yang Chen, Joanne Hall, Dave van Wees, Niels Andela, Stijn Hantson, Louis Giglio, Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas C. Morton, and James T. Randerson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5227–5259, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5227-2023, 2023
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Using multiple sets of remotely sensed data, we created a dataset of monthly global burned area from 1997 to 2020. The estimated annual global burned area is 774 million hectares, significantly higher than previous estimates. Burned area declined by 1.21% per year due to extensive fire loss in savanna, grassland, and cropland ecosystems. This study enhances our understanding of the impact of fire on the carbon cycle and climate system, and may improve the predictions of future fire changes.
Chenwei Xiao, Sönke Zaehle, Hui Yang, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Christiane Schmullius, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1211–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023, 2023
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Ecosystem resistance reflects their susceptibility during adverse conditions and can be changed by land management. We estimate ecosystem resistance to drought and temperature globally. We find a higher resistance to drought in forests compared to croplands and an evident loss of resistance to drought when primary forests are converted to secondary forests or they are harvested. Old-growth trees tend to be more resistant in some forests and crops benefit from irrigation during drought periods.
David T. Ho, Laurent Bopp, Jaime B. Palter, Matthew C. Long, Philip W. Boyd, Griet Neukermans, and Lennart T. Bach
State Planet, 2-oae2023, 12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-12-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-12-2023, 2023
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Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) refers to the multistep process to quantify the amount of carbon dioxide removed by a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activity. Here, we make recommendations for MRV for Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) research, arguing that it has an obligation for comprehensiveness, reproducibility, and transparency, as it may become the foundation for assessing large-scale deployment. Both observations and numerical simulations will be needed for MRV.
Masahiko Fujii, Ryuji Hamanoue, Lawrence Patrick Cases Bernardo, Tsuneo Ono, Akihiro Dazai, Shigeyuki Oomoto, Masahide Wakita, and Takehiro Tanaka
Biogeosciences, 20, 4527–4549, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4527-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4527-2023, 2023
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This is the first study of the current and future impacts of climate change on Pacific oyster farming in Japan. Future coastal warming and acidification may affect oyster larvae as a result of longer exposure to lower-pH waters. A prolonged spawning period may harm oyster processing by shortening the shipping period and reducing oyster quality. To minimize impacts on Pacific oyster farming, in addition to mitigation measures, local adaptation measures may be required.
Michael Sigmond, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, Ruth Digby, Nathan Gillett, Viatcheslav Kharin, William Merryfield, Catherine Reader, John Scinocca, Neil Swart, John Virgin, Carsten Abraham, Jason Cole, Nicolas Lambert, Woo-Sung Lee, Yongxiao Liang, Elizaveta Malinina, Landon Rieger, Knut von Salzen, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Libo Wang, and Duo Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6553–6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, 2023
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We present a new activity which aims to organize the analysis of biases in the Canadian Earth System model (CanESM) in a systematic manner. Results of this “Analysis for Development” (A4D) activity includes a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features substantial improvements regarding the simulation of dust and stratospheric temperatures, a second CanESM5.1 variant with reduced climate sensitivity, and insights into potential avenues to reduce various other model biases.
Francesco N. Tubiello, Giulia Conchedda, Leon Casse, Pengyu Hao, Giorgia De Santis, and Zhongxin Chen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4997–5015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4997-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4997-2023, 2023
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We describe a new dataset of cropland area circa the year 2020, with global coverage and country detail. Data are generated from geospatial information on the agreement characteristics of six high-resolution cropland maps. By helping to highlight features of cropland characteristics and underlying causes for agreement across land cover products, the dataset can be used as a tool to help guide future mapping efforts towards improved agricultural monitoring.
Zi Huang, Jiaoyue Wang, Longfei Bing, Yijiao Qiu, Rui Guo, Ying Yu, Mingjing Ma, Le Niu, Dan Tong, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep G. Canadell, Fengming Xi, and Zhu Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4947–4958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4947-2023, 2023
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This is about global and regional cement process carbon emissions and CO2 uptake calculations from 1930 to 2019. The global cement production is rising to 4.4 Gt, causing processing carbon emission of 1.81 Gt (95% CI: 1.75–1.88 Gt CO2) in 2021. Plus, in 2021, cement’s carbon accumulated uptake (22.9 Gt, 95% CI: 19.6–22.6 Gt CO2) has offset 55.2% of cement process CO2 emissions (41.5 Gt, 95% CI: 38.7–47.1 Gt CO2) since 1930.
Ioannis Cheliotis, Thomas Lauvaux, Jinghui Lian, Theodoros Christoudias, George Georgiou, Alba Badia, Frédéric Chevallier, Pramod Kumar, Yathin Kudupaje, Ruixue Lei, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2487, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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A consistent estimation of CO2 emissions is complicated due to the scarcity of CO2 observations. In this study, we showcase the potential to improve the CO2 emissions estimations from the NO2 concentrations based on the NO2-to-CO2 ratio, which should be constant for a source co-emitting NO2 and CO2, by comparing satellite observations with atmospheric chemistry and transport model simulations for NO2 and CO2. Furthermore, we demonstrate the significance of the chemistry in NO2 simulations.
Martin Schwartz, Philippe Ciais, Aurélien De Truchis, Jérôme Chave, Catherine Ottlé, Cedric Vega, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Manuel Nicolas, Sami Jouaber, Siyu Liu, Martin Brandt, and Ibrahim Fayad
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4927–4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, 2023
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As forests play a key role in climate-related issues, their accurate monitoring is critical to reduce global carbon emissions effectively. Based on open-access remote-sensing sensors, and artificial intelligence methods, we created high-resolution tree height, wood volume, and biomass maps of metropolitan France that outperform previous products. This study, based on freely available data, provides essential information to support climate-efficient forest management policies at a low cost.
Zoé Lloret, Frédéric Chevallier, Anne Cozic, Marine Remaud, and Yann Meurdesoif
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-140, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this study, we evaluate the performance of a new model coupling, ICO, for simulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) transport. Using an unstructured grid, our model accurately captures seasonal CO2 variations at surface stations. The model exhibits comparable accuracy to a reference configuration and offers advantages in computational speed and storage. This highlights the importance of advanced modeling approaches and high-resolution grids in refining climate models.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Jonilda Kushta, Theodoros Christoudias, I. Safak Bayram, and Jean Sciare
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13565–13583, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13565-2023, 2023
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We use four years (2019–2022) of TROPOMI NO2 data to map NOx emissions in Qatar. We estimate average monthly emissions for the country and industrial facilities and derive an emission factor for the power sector. Monthly emissions have a weekly cycle reflecting the social norms in Qatar and an annual cycle consistent with the electricity production by gas-fired power plants. Their mean value is lower than the NOx emissions in global inventories but similar to the emissions reported for 2007.
Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, Negin Sobhani, Gordon B. Bonan, David Durden, Dawn Lenz, Michael SanClements, Samantha Weintraub-Leff, Edward Ayres, Christopher R. Florian, Kyla Dahlin, Sanjiv Kumar, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claire M. Zarakas, Charles Vardeman, and Valerio Pascucci
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5979–6000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5979-2023, 2023
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We present a novel cyberinfrastructure system that uses National Ecological Observatory Network measurements to run Community Terrestrial System Model point simulations in a containerized system. The simple interface and tutorials expand access to data and models used in Earth system research by removing technical barriers and facilitating research, educational opportunities, and community engagement. The NCAR–NEON system enables convergence of climate and ecological sciences.