Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Collection:
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Data description paper
| 
11 Dec 2020
Data description paper |
| 11 Dec 2020
| 11 Dec 2020
Global Carbon Budget 2020
Pierre Friedlingstein
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
College of Engineering, Mathematics and
Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut
Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Département de Géosciences,
Ecole Normale Supérieure, 24 rue Lhomond, 75005 Paris, France
Michael O'Sullivan
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut
Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Département de Géosciences,
Ecole Normale Supérieure, 24 rue Lhomond, 75005 Paris, France
Matthew W. Jones
Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East
Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Robbie M. Andrew
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo
0349, Norway
Judith Hauck
Alfred-Wegener-Institut
Helmholtz-Zentum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Postfach 120161, 27515
Bremerhaven, Germany
Are Olsen
Geophysical Institute, University
of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research, Bergen, Norway
Glen P. Peters
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo
0349, Norway
Wouter Peters
Wageningen University, Environmental Sciences Group, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA,
Wageningen, the Netherlands
University of Groningen, Centre
for Isotope Research, 9747 AG, Groningen, the Netherlands
Julia Pongratz
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 München, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg,
Germany
Stephen Sitch
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
Corinne Le Quéré
Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East
Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Josep G. Canadell
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2101, Australia
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Robert B. Jackson
Department of Earth System Science, Woods
Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford
University, Stanford, CA 94305–2210, USA
Simone Alin
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific
Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE,
Seattle, WA 98115, USA
Luiz E. O. C. Aragão
Remote Sensing
Division, National Institute for Space Research, São José dos
Campos, Brazil
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
Almut Arneth
Karlsruhe Institute of
Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric
Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Vivek Arora
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate
Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC,
Canada
Nicholas R. Bates
Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences
(BIOS), 17 Biological Lane, St. Georges, GE01, Bermuda
Department of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, European
Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK
Meike Becker
Geophysical Institute, University
of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research, Bergen, Norway
Alice Benoit-Cattin
Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, Fornubudir
5, 220 Hafnarfjordur, Iceland
Henry C. Bittig
Leibniz Institute
for Baltic Sea Research Warnemuende (IOW), Seestrasse 15, 18119 Rostock,
Germany
Laurent Bopp
Laboratoire de Météorologie
Dynamique/Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, Ecole Normale
Supérieure/Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole
Polytechnique, Paris, France
Selma Bultan
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 München, Germany
Naveen Chandra
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama,
236-0001, Japan
Center for Global Environmental Research, National
Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki,
305-8506, Japan
Frédéric Chevallier
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Louise P. Chini
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland,
College Park, MD 20742, USA
Wiley Evans
Hakai Institute, Heriot Bay, BC, Canada
Liesbeth Florentie
Wageningen University, Environmental Sciences Group, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA,
Wageningen, the Netherlands
Piers M. Forster
Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of
Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
Thomas Gasser
International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1
2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Marion Gehlen
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Dennis Gilfillan
Research Institute for Environment, Energy, and Economics, Appalachian State
University, Boone, NC 28608, USA
Thanos Gkritzalis
Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ), InnovOceanSite, Wandelaarkaai 7, 8400
Ostend, Belgium
Luke Gregor
Environmental Physics Group, ETH
Zürich, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics and Center
for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), Zurich, Switzerland
Nicolas Gruber
Environmental Physics Group, ETH
Zürich, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics and Center
for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), Zurich, Switzerland
Ian Harris
NCAS-Climate, Climatic Research Unit,
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich
Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Kerstin Hartung
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 München, Germany
now
at: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik
der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Vanessa Haverd
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2101, Australia
Richard A. Houghton
Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), Falmouth,
MA 02540, USA
Tatiana Ilyina
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg,
Germany
Atul K. Jain
Department of
Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USA
Emilie Joetzjer
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France,
CNRS, Toulouse, France
Koji Kadono
Japan Meteorological Agency,
1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-Ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
Etsushi Kato
Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
Vassilis Kitidis
Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Plymouth,
PL13DH, United Kingdom
Jan Ivar Korsbakken
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo
0349, Norway
Peter Landschützer
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg,
Germany
Nathalie Lefèvre
LOCEAN/IPSL
laboratory, Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
Andrew Lenton
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Sebastian Lienert
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics
Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of
Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Department of Earth System
Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Danica Lombardozzi
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and
Global Dynamics, Terrestrial Sciences Section, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Gregg Marland
Research Institute for Environment, Energy, and Economics, Appalachian State
University, Boone, NC 28608, USA
Department of Geological and Environmental
Sciences, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC 28608-2067, USA
Nicolas Metzl
LOCEAN/IPSL
laboratory, Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
David R. Munro
Cooperative Institute for Research in
Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80305,
USA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Global
Monitoring Laboratory (NOAA/GML), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Julia E. M. S. Nabel
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg,
Germany
Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka
Center for Global Environmental Research, National
Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki,
305-8506, Japan
Yosuke Niwa
Center for Global Environmental Research, National
Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki,
305-8506, Japan
Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0052
Japan
Kevin O'Brien
Cooperative Institute for
Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES), University of Washington,
Seattle, WA 98105, USA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific
Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE,
Seattle, WA 98115, USA
Tsuneo Ono
Japan Fisheries Research and
Education Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama 236-8648, Japan
Paul I. Palmer
National Centre for Earth Observation, University
of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, UK
School of GeoSciences, University of
Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, UK
Denis Pierrot
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
(NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL 33149, USA
Benjamin Poulter
NASA Goddard
Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Laure Resplandy
Princeton University, Department of
Geosciences and Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Eddy Robertson
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB,
UK
Christian Rödenbeck
Max Planck Institute for
Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena,
Germany
Jörg Schwinger
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre,
Jahnebakken 5, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research, Bergen, Norway
Roland Séférian
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France,
CNRS, Toulouse, France
Ingunn Skjelvan
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre,
Jahnebakken 5, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research, Bergen, Norway
Adam J. P. Smith
Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East
Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Adrienne J. Sutton
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific
Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE,
Seattle, WA 98115, USA
Toste Tanhua
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel,
Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Pieter P. Tans
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research
Laboratory
(NOAA ESRL), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Hanqin Tian
School of
Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Ducan Drive, Auburn,
AL 36849, USA
Bronte Tilbrook
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Australian Antarctic
Partnership Program, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Guido van der Werf
Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the
Netherlands
Nicolas Vuichard
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Anthony P. Walker
Climate
Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge
National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
Rik Wanninkhof
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
(NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL 33149, USA
Andrew J. Watson
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
David Willis
University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich
NR4 7TJ, UK
Andrew J. Wiltshire
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB,
UK
Wenping Yuan
School of
Atmospheric Sciences, Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change
and Natural Disaster Studies, Zhuhai Key Laboratory of Dynamics Urban
Climate and Ecology, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, Guangdong 510245,
China
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment
Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of
Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental
Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and
Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China
Sönke Zaehle
Max Planck Institute for
Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena,
Germany
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Soil carbon is the largest store of carbon on the land surface of Earth and is known to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Understanding this future response is vital to successfully meeting Paris Agreement targets, which rely heavily on carbon uptake by the land surface. In this study, the individual responses of soil carbon are quantified and compared amongst CMIP6 Earth system models used within the most recent IPCC report, and the role of soils in the land response is highlighted.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
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This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Zi Huang, Jiaoyue Wang, Longfei Bing, Yijiao Qiu, Rui Guo, Ying Yu, Mingjing Ma, Le Niu, Dan Tong, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep G. Canadell, Fengming Xi, and Zhu Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4947–4958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4947-2023, 2023
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This is about global and regional cement process carbon emissions and CO2 uptake calculations from 1930 to 2019. The global cement production is rising to 4.4 Gt, causing processing carbon emission of 1.81 Gt (95% CI: 1.75–1.88 Gt CO2) in 2021. Plus, in 2021, cement’s carbon accumulated uptake (22.9 Gt, 95% CI: 19.6–22.6 Gt CO2) has offset 55.2% of cement process CO2 emissions (41.5 Gt, 95% CI: 38.7–47.1 Gt CO2) since 1930.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
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Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
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This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Giacomo Grassi, Clemens Schwingshackl, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Alessandro Cescatti, Philippe Ciais, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, Werner A. Kurz, Maria J. Sanz Sanchez, Raúl Abad Viñas, Ramdane Alkama, Selma Bultan, Guido Ceccherini, Stefanie Falk, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Anu Korosuo, Joana Melo, Matthew J. McGrath, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Anna A. Romanovskaya, Simone Rossi, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, 2023
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Striking differences exist in estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse gas inventories and the IPCC assessment reports. These differences hamper an accurate assessment of the collective progress under the Paris Agreement. By implementing an approach that conceptually reconciles land-use CO2 flux from national inventories and the global models used by the IPCC, our study is an important step forward for increasing confidence in land-use CO2 flux estimates.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
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Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2045–2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, 2022
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To investigate the impacts of drought on vegetation, which few studies have done due to various limitations, we used the leaf area index as proxy and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to simulate drought impacts because the models use observationally derived climate. We found that the semi-desert biome responds strongly to drought in the summer season, while the tropical forest biome shows a weak response. This study could help target areas to improve drought monitoring and simulation.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
István Dunkl, Aaron Spring, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, 2021
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The variability in atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by terrestrial carbon fluxes. These land–atmosphere fluxes are predictable for around 2 years, but the mechanisms providing the predictability are not well understood. By decomposing the predictability of carbon fluxes into individual contributors we were able to explain the spatial and seasonal patterns and the interannual variability of CO2 flux predictability.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
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Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Zichong Chen, Junjie Liu, Daven K. Henze, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Kelley C. Wells, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Emilie Joetzjer, Vladislav Bastrikov, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Hanqin Tian, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Scot M. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6663–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, 2021
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NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite observes atmospheric CO2 globally. We use a multiple regression and inverse model to quantify the relationships between OCO-2 and environmental drivers within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. Our results point to limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to inform key relationships that are very uncertain in process-based models.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
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Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Bettina K. Gier, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 17, 6115–6144, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6115-2020, 2020
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Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phases 5 and 6 are compared to a satellite data product of column-averaged CO2 mole fractions (XCO2). The previously believed discrepancy of the negative trend in seasonal cycle amplitude in the satellite product, which is not seen in in situ data nor in the models, is attributed to a sampling characteristic. Furthermore, CMIP6 models are shown to have made progress in reproducing the observed XCO2 time series compared to CMIP5.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Shufen Pan, Naiqing Pan, Hanqin Tian, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Hao Shi, Vivek K. Arora, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Catherine Ottlé, Benjamin Poulter, Sönke Zaehle, and Steven W. Running
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, 2020
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Evapotranspiration (ET) links global water, carbon and energy cycles. We used 4 remote sensing models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 land surface models to analyze the changes in global terrestrial ET. These three categories of approaches agreed well in terms of ET intensity. For 1982–2011, all models showed that Earth greening enhanced terrestrial ET. The small interannual variability of global terrestrial ET suggests it has a potential planetary boundary of around 600 mm yr-1.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Fabienne Maignan, Yi Yin, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep Peñuelas, Shilong L. Piao, Stephen Sitch, William K. Smith, Xuhui Wang, Zaichun Zhu, Vanessa Haverd, Etsushi Kato, Atul K. Jain, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, and Dan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12361–12375, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, 2019
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Here we show that land-surface models improved their ability to simulate the increase in the amplitude of seasonal CO2-cycle exchange (SCANBP) by ecosystems compared to estimates by two atmospheric inversions. We find a dominant role of vegetation growth over boreal Eurasia to the observed increase in SCANBP, strongly driven by CO2 fertilization, and an overall negative effect of temperature on SCANBP. Biases can be explained by the sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Meirong Wang, Fei Jiang, Jingming Chen, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Ziqiang Jiang, Weimin Ju, Sebastian Lienert, Julia Nabel, Stephen Sitch, Nicolas Viovy, Hengmao Wang, and Andrew J. Wiltshire
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10333–10345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, 2018
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Based on the Mauna Loa CO2 records and TRENDY multi-model historical simulations, we investigate the different impacts of EP and CP El Niños on interannual carbon cycle variability. Composite analysis indicates that the evolutions of CO2 growth rate anomalies have three clear differences in terms of precursors (negative and neutral), amplitudes (strong and weak), and durations of peak (Dec–Apr and Oct–Jan) during EP and CP El Niños, respectively. We further discuss their terrestrial mechanisms.
Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, Karina Williams, and Carolina Duran-Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2857–2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, 2018
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Dynamic global vegetation models are used for studying historical and future changes to vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle. JULES is a DGVM that represents the land surface in the UK Earth System Model. We compared simulated gross and net primary productivity of vegetation, vegetation distribution, and aspects of the transient carbon cycle to observational datasets. JULES was able to accurately reproduce many aspects of the terrestrial carbon cycle with the recent improvements.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Mahdi Nakhavali, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ronny Lauerwald, Jing Tang, Sarah Chadburn, Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Anna Harper, David Walmsley, Matthias Peichl, and Bert Gielen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 593–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, 2018
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In order to provide a better understanding of the Earth's carbon cycle, we need a model that represents the whole continuum from atmosphere to land and into the ocean. In this study we include in JULES a representation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) processes. Our results show that the model is able to reproduce the DOC concentration and controlling processes, including leaching to the riverine system, which is fundamental for integrating the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
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There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Richard J. Millar, Zebedee R. Nicholls, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Myles R. Allen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7213–7228, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017, 2017
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Simple representations of the global coupled climate–carbon-cycle system are required for climate policy analysis. Existing models have often failed to capture important physical dependencies of the climate response to carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper we propose a simple but novel modification to impulse-response climate–carbon-cycle models to capture these physical dependencies. This simple model creates an important tool for both climate policy and climate science analysis.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Brian C. O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jason Lowe, Gerald A. Meehl, Richard Moss, Keywan Riahi, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016
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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. The design consists of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions. Climate model projections will facilitate integrated studies of climate change as well as address targeted scientific questions.
Fang Zhao, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Pierre Friedlingstein, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Eugenia Kalnay, Etsushi Kato, Charles D. Koven, Ben Poulter, Rashid Rafique, Stephen Sitch, Shijie Shu, Beni Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, and Sonke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 13, 5121–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, 2016
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The increasing seasonality of atmospheric CO2 is strongly linked with enhanced land vegetation activities in the last 5 decades, for which the importance of increasing CO2, climate and land use/cover change was evaluated in single model studies (Zeng et al., 2014; Forkel et al., 2016). Here we examine the relative importance of these factors in multiple models. Our results highlight models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying regional dynamics.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
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How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Anna B. Harper, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris D. Jones, Stephen Sitch, Lina M. Mercado, Margriet Groenendijk, Eddy Robertson, Jens Kattge, Gerhard Bönisch, Owen K. Atkin, Michael Bahn, Johannes Cornelissen, Ülo Niinemets, Vladimir Onipchenko, Josep Peñuelas, Lourens Poorter, Peter B. Reich, Nadjeda A. Soudzilovskaia, and Peter van Bodegom
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2415–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, 2016
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Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to predict the response of vegetation to climate change. We improved the representation of carbon uptake by ecosystems in a DGVM by including a wider range of trade-offs between nutrient allocation to photosynthetic capacity and leaf structure, based on observed plant traits from a worldwide data base. The improved model has higher rates of photosynthesis and net C uptake by plants, and more closely matches observations at site and global scales.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Veronika Eyring, Mattia Righi, Axel Lauer, Martin Evaldsson, Sabrina Wenzel, Colin Jones, Alessandro Anav, Oliver Andrews, Irene Cionni, Edouard L. Davin, Clara Deser, Carsten Ehbrecht, Pierre Friedlingstein, Peter Gleckler, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Juckes, Stephan Kindermann, John Krasting, Dominik Kunert, Richard Levine, Alexander Loew, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Erik Mason, Adam S. Phillips, Simon Read, Catherine Rio, Romain Roehrig, Daniel Senftleben, Andreas Sterl, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Jeremy Walton, Shiyu Wang, and Keith D. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016
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A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) in CMIP has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
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We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
C. D. Koven, J. Q. Chambers, K. Georgiou, R. Knox, R. Negron-Juarez, W. J. Riley, V. K. Arora, V. Brovkin, P. Friedlingstein, and C. D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 12, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, 2015
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Terrestrial carbon feedbacks are a large uncertainty in climate change. We separate modeled feedback responses into those governed by changed carbon inputs (productivity) and changed outputs (turnover). The disaggregated responses show that both are important in controlling inter-model uncertainty. Interactions between productivity and turnover are also important, and research must focus on these interactions for more accurate projections of carbon cycle feedbacks.
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
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In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
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Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, S. Archibald, B. Poulter, W. M. Hao, S. Hantson, F. Mouillot, P. Friedlingstein, F. Maignan, and N. Viovy
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2747–2767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, 2014
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ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE model could moderately capture the decadal trend and variation of burned area during the 20th century, and the spatial and temporal patterns of contemporary vegetation fires. The model has a better performance in simulating fires for regions dominated by climate-driven fires, such as boreal forests. However, it has limited capability to reproduce the infrequent but important large fires in different ecosystems, where urgent model improvement is needed in the future.
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
I. N. Fletcher, L. E. O. C. Aragão, A. Lima, Y. Shimabukuro, and P. Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 11, 1449–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1449-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1449-2014, 2014
D. Dalmonech, A. M. Foley, A. Anav, P. Friedlingstein, A. D. Friend, M. Kidston, M. Willeit, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
C. Le Quéré, R. J. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, G. Marland, G. P. Peters, G. R. van der Werf, A. Ahlström, R. M. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, C. Jourdain, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S. Sitch, B. D. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, 2013
B. B. B. Booth, D. Bernie, D. McNeall, E. Hawkins, J. Caesar, C. Boulton, P. Friedlingstein, and D. M. H. Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, 2013
Samuel Upton, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, Santiago Botía, Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Martin Jung, Fabian Gans, László Haszpra, and Ana Bastos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2097, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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We create a hybrid ecosystem-level carbon flux model using both eddy-covariance observations and observations of the atmospheric mole fraction of CO2 at three tall-tower observatories. Our study uses an atmospheric transport model (STILT) to connect the atmospheric signal to the ecosystem-level model. We show that this inclusion of atmospheric information meaningfully improves the model's representation of the interannual variability of the global net flux of CO2.
Yuming Jin, Britton B. Stephens, Matthew C. Long, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Joram J. D. Hooghiem, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Shamil Maksyutov, Eric J. Morgan, Yosuke Niwa, Prabir K. Patra, Christian Rödenbeck, and Jesse Vance
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1736, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We carry out a comprehensive atmospheric transport model (ATM) intercomparison project. This project aims to evaluate errors in ATMs and three air-sea O2 exchange products by comparing model simulations with observations collected from surface stations, ships, and aircraft. We also present a model evaluation framework to independently quantify transport-related and flux-related biases that contribute to model-observation discrepancies in atmospheric tracer distributions.
Li-Qing Jiang, Amanda Fay, Jens Daniel Müller, Lydia Keppler, Dustin Carroll, Siv K. Lauvset, Tim DeVries, Judith Hauck, Christian Rödenbeck, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Metzl, Andrea J. Fassbender, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Peter Landschützer, Rik Wanninkhof, Christopher Sabine, Simone R. Alin, Mario Hoppema, Are Olsen, Matthew P. Humphreys, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicole Besemer, Henry C. Bittig, Albert E. Boyd, Daniel Broullón, Wei-Jun Cai, Brendan R. Carter, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Chen-Tung Arthur Chen, Frédéric Cyr, John E. Dore, Ian Enochs, Richard A. Feely, Hernan E. Garcia, Marion Gehlen, Lucas Gloege, Melchor González-Dávila, Nicolas Gruber, Yosuke Iida, Masao Ishii, Esther Kennedy, Alex Kozyr, Nico Lange, Claire Lo Monaco, Derek P. Manzello, Galen A. McKinley, Natalie M. Monacci, Xose A. Padin, Ana M. Palacio-Castro, Fiz F. Pérez, Alizée Roobaert, J. Magdalena Santana-Casiano, Jonathan Sharp, Adrienne Sutton, Jim Swift, Toste Tanhua, Maciej Telszewski, Jens Terhaar, Ruben van Hooidonk, Anton Velo, Andrew J. Watson, Angelicque E. White, Zelun Wu, Hyelim Yoo, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-255, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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This review article provides an overview of 60 existing ocean carbonate chemistry data products, encompassing a broad range of types, including compilations of cruise datasets, gap-filled observational products, model simulations, and more. It is designed to help researchers identify and access the data products that best support their scientific objectives, thereby facilitating progress in understanding the ocean's changing carbonate chemistry.
Cheng Gong, Yan Wang, Hanqin Tian, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1416, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Our results showed substantially varied fertilizer-induced soil NOx emissions in 2019 from 0.84 to 2.2 Tg N yr-1 globally. Such variations further lead to 0.3 to 3.3 ppbv summertime ozone enhancement in agricultural hotspot regions and 7.1 ppbv to 16.6 ppbv reductions in global methane concentrations
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter A. Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joël Thanwerdas, Hanqin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas E. J. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1873–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, 2025
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Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesise and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progress in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Zhengyang Lin, Ling Huang, Hanqin Tian, Anping Chen, and Xuhui Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2509–2520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2509-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2509-2025, 2025
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The China Wildfire Emission Dataset (ChinaWED v1) estimated wildfire emissions in China during 2012–2022 as 78.13 Tg CO2, 279.47 Gg CH4, and 6.26 Gg N2O annually. Agricultural fires dominated emissions, while forest and grassland emissions decreased. Seasonal peaks occurred in late spring, with hotspots in northeast, southwest, and east China. The model emphasizes the importance of using localized emission factors and high-resolution fire estimates for accurate assessments.
Liang Feng, Paul Palmer, Luke Smallman, Jingfeng Xiao, Paulo Cristofanelli, Ove Hermansen, John Lee, Casper Labuschagne, Simonetta Montaguti, Steffen Noe, Stephen Platt, Xinrong Ren, Martin Steinbacher, and Irene Xueref-Remy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1793, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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2023 saw an unexpectedly high global atmospheric CO2 growth. Satellite data reveal a role for increased emissions over the tropics. Larger emissions over eastern Brazil can be explained by warmer temperatures, while changes in rainfall and soil moisture play more of a role in emission increases elsewhere in the tropics.
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 667–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025, 2025
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Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) could be used alongside mitigation to reduce global warming. Previous studies suggest that more atmospheric CO2 is taken up when SAI is deployed. Here, we look at the entire SAI deployment from start to after termination. We show how the initial CO2 uptake benefit, and hence lower mitigation burden, is reduced in later stages of SAI, where the reduction in natural CO2 uptake turns into an additional mitigation burden.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-250, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-250, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets to track real-world changes over time. To make our work relevant to policy makers, we follow methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the IPCC assessment.
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 631–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, 2025
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Land cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) can alter climate even in intact areas, causing carbon changes in remote areas. This study is the first to assess these effects, finding they substantially alter global carbon dynamics, changing terrestrial stocks by up to dozens of gigatonnes. These results are vital for scientific and policy assessments, given the expected role of LCLMCs in achieving the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming below 1.5 °C.
Mathieu A. Poupon, Laure Resplandy, Jessica Garwood, Charles Stock, Niki Zadeh, and Jessica Y. Luo
Ocean Sci., 21, 851–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-851-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-851-2025, 2025
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Zooplankton diel vertical migration (DVM) shapes ocean biogeochemical cycles. We present a new DVM model that reproduces migration depths observed in the North Atlantic Ocean. We show that chlorophyll shading contributes to reducing zooplankton migration depth and mainly controls its spatial and temporal variability. Thus, high chlorophyll concentrations may limit carbon sequestration caused by zooplankton migration despite the general abundance of zooplankton migration in these environments.
Yuxin Zheng, Xu Yue, Xiaofei Lu, and Jun Zhu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1515, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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The sensitivity of gross primary productivity (GPP) to climate varies across regions and ecosystem types. Our study shows that warming enhances GPP in boreal regions but suppresses it in the tropics. Increased precipitation generally promotes GPP but has limited effects on tree species. However, current models tend to overestimate GPP responses to precipitation, resulting in greater GPP variability during drought events.
William Lamb, Robbie Andrew, Matthew Jones, Zebedee Nicholls, Glen Peters, Chris Smith, Marielle Saunois, Giacomo Grassi, Julia Pongratz, Steven Smith, Francesco Tubiello, Monica Crippa, Matthew Gidden, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jan Minx, and Piers Forster
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-188, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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This study explores why global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates vary. Key reasons include different coverage of gases and sectors, varying definitions of anthropogenic land use change emissions, and the Paris Agreement not covering all emission sources. The study highlights three main ways emissions data is reported, each with different objectives and resulting in varying global emission totals. It emphasizes the need for transparency in choosing datasets and setting assessment scopes.
Yufen Wang, Ke Li, Xi Chen, Zhenjiang Yang, Minglong Tang, Pascoal M. D. Campos, Yang Yang, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 4455–4475, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4455-2025, 2025
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The impacts of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on high tropospheric ozone levels are not well studied in southern Africa. We combined model simulations with recent observations at the surface and from space to quantify tropospheric ozone and its drivers in southern Africa. Our work focuses on the impact of emissions from different sources at different spatial scales, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of air pollution drivers and their uncertainties in southern Africa.
Dmitry Otryakhin, David Martín Belda, and Almut Arneth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1401, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We developed a methodology for comparison of simulation results by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). Using this methodology, we reveal systematic differences between high- and low-resolution DGVM simulations caused by under-representation of climate variability in the low-resolution data and poor representation of shore lines and inland water bodies. In a study area covering European Union, the differences in aggregated output variables were found to be 2 %–10 %.
Ida Storm, Ute Karstens, Claudio D’Onofrio, Alex Vermeulen, Samuel Hammer, Ingrid Super, Theo Glauch, and Wouter Peters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-63, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Many cities are committed to ambitious CO2 emission reduction targets, supported by climate action plans. Atmospheric measurements are essential to verify that these efforts lead to the expected reductions. Here, we characterize and compare 96 European cities across 18 metrics, linking them to four major challenges in CO2 emissions monitoring. Our framework includes a tool with additional cities and metrics, as well as "mapbooks" for the 96 cities.
Miriam Seifert, Christopher Danek, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1495, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) can help to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Yet, our study is the first that investigates the link between OAE and phytoplankton in an Earth System Model. We show that OAE can indirectly decrease primary production, and that biological feedbacks can modify the efficiency of OAE. Our study provides hints for ecological risks of OAE and the quantification of carbon drawdown, and can serve as a kick-start for other models to consider OAE-ecosystem interactions.
Tea Thum, Tuuli Miinalainen, Outi Seppälä, Holly Croft, Cheryl Rogers, Ralf Staebler, Silvia Caldararu, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 1781–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1781-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1781-2025, 2025
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Climate change has the potential to influence the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems, and here the nitrogen cycle is also important. We used the terrestrial biosphere model QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system) in a mixed deciduous forest in Canada. We investigated the usefulness of using the leaf area index and leaf chlorophyll content to improve the parameterization of the model. This work paves the way for using spaceborne observations in model parameterizations, also including information on the nitrogen cycle.
Wolfgang Knorr, Matthew Williams, Tea Thum, Thomas Kaminski, Michael Voßbeck, Marko Scholze, Tristan Quaife, T. Luke Smallman, Susan C. Steele-Dunne, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Tim Green, Sönke Zaehle, Mika Aurela, Alexandre Bouvet, Emanuel Bueechi, Wouter Dorigo, Tarek S. El-Madany, Mirco Migliavacca, Marika Honkanen, Yann H. Kerr, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Arnaud Mialon, Tuuli Miinalainen, Gaétan Pique, Amanda Ojasalo, Shaun Quegan, Peter J. Rayner, Pablo Reyes-Muñoz, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Mike Schwank, Jochem Verrelst, Songyan Zhu, Dirk Schüttemeyer, and Matthias Drusch
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2137–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, 2025
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When it comes to climate change, the land surface is where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those impacts across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us capture the changes that happen on our lands.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Alexander Norton, Sönke Zaehle, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2193–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025, 2025
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We studied carbon–nitrogen coupling in Earth system models by developing a global carbon–nitrogen cycle model (CNit v1.0) within the widely used emulator MAGICC. CNit effectively reproduced the global carbon–nitrogen cycle dynamics observed in complex models. Our results show persistent nitrogen limitations on plant growth (net primary production) from 1850 to 2100, suggesting that nitrogen deficiency may constrain future land carbon sequestration.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
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We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Carlos A. Sierra, Ingrid Chanca, Meinrat Andreae, Alessandro Carioca de Araújo, Hella van Asperen, Lars Borchardt, Santiago Botía, Luiz Antonio Candido, Caio S. C. Correa, Cléo Quaresma Dias-Junior, Markus Eritt, Annica Fröhlich, Luciana V. Gatti, Marcus Guderle, Samuel Hammer, Martin Heimann, Viviana Horna, Armin Jordan, Steffen Knabe, Richard Kneißl, Jost Valentin Lavric, Ingeborg Levin, Kita Macario, Juliana Menger, Heiko Moossen, Carlos Alberto Quesada, Michael Rothe, Christian Rödenbeck, Yago Santos, Axel Steinhof, Bruno Takeshi, Susan Trumbore, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-151, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We present here a unique dataset of atmospheric observations of greenhouse gases and isotopes that provide key information on land-atmosphere interactions for the Amazon forests of central Brazil. The data show a relatively large level of variability, but also important trends in greenhouse gases, and signals from fires as well as seasonal biological activity.
Inês Vieira, Félicien Meunier, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, Stephen Sitch, Flossie Brown, Giacomo Gerosa, Silvano Fares, Pascal Boeckx, Marijn Bauters, and Hans Verbeeck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1375, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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We used a computer model to study how ozone pollution reduces plant growth in six European forests, from Finland to Italy. Combining field data and simulations, we found that ozone can lower carbon uptake by up to 6 % each year, especially in Mediterranean areas. Our study shows that local climate and forest type influence ozone damage and highlights the need to include ozone effects in forest and climate models.
Mathew Williams, David T. Milodowski, T. Luke Smallman, Kyle G. Dexter, Gabi C. Hegerl, Iain M. McNicol, Michael O'Sullivan, Carla M. Roesch, Casey M. Ryan, Stephen Sitch, and Aude Valade
Biogeosciences, 22, 1597–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1597-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1597-2025, 2025
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Southern African woodlands are important in both regional and global carbon cycles. A new carbon analysis created by combining satellite data with ecosystem modelling shows that the region has a neutral C balance overall but with important spatial variations. Patterns of biomass and C balance across the region are the outcome of climate controls on production and vegetation–fire interactions, which determine the mortality of vegetation and spatial variations in vegetation function.
Ling Kang, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, and Ye Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 3603–3621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-3603-2025, 2025
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Using the model of Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0, climate change over 2010–2045 under a carbon neutrality scenario is simulated to increase summertime maximum daily 8 h average ozone (O3) levels in eastern China, the North China Plain, and the Yangtze River Delta by 2.3, 4.7, and 3.0 ppbv, respectively. Temperature, radiation, and relative humidity are the key meteorological parameters and net chemical production is the key process in climate-driven O3 increases in eastern China.
Anne-Marie Wefing, Annabel Payne, Marcel Scheiwiller, Christof Vockenhuber, Marcus Christl, Toste Tanhua, and Núria Casacuberta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1322, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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Here we used the anthropogenic radionuclides I-129 and U-236 as tracers for Atlantic Water circulation in the Arctic Ocean. New data collected in 2021 allowed to assess the distribution of Atlantic Water and mixing with Pacific-origin water in the surface layer in that year. By using historical tracer data from 2011 to 2021, we looked into temporal changes of the circulation and found slightly older waters in the central Arctic Ocean in 2021 compared to 2015.
Lei Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Yitong Yao, Daniel Goll, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Isabel Martínez Cano, Arthur Fendrich, Laurent Li, Hui Yang, Sassan Saatchi, and Wei Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-397, 2025
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This study enhances the accuracy of modeling the carbon dynamics of Amazon rainforest by optimizing key model parameters based on satellite data. Using spatially varying parameters for tree mortality and photosynthesis, we improved predictions of biomass, productivity, and tree mortality. Our findings highlight the critical role of wood density and water availability in forest processes, offering insights to refine global carbon cycle models.
Samantha Petch, Liang Feng, Paul Palmer, Robert P. King, Tristan Quaife, and Keith Haines
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173343481.12875858/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173343481.12875858/v1, 2025
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The growth rate of atmospheric CO2 varies year to year, mainly due to land ecosystems. Understanding factors controlling the land carbon uptake is crucial. Our study examines the link between terrestrial water storage and the CO2 growth rate from 2002–2023, revealing a strong negative correlation. We highlight the key role of tropical forests, especially in tropical America, and assess how regional contributions shift over time.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Liting Hu, Adrien Martinez, Marielle Saunois, Rona L. Thompson, Kushal Tibrewal, Wouter Peters, Brendan Byrne, Giacomo Grassi, Paul I. Palmer, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Xuekun Fang, Tengjiao Wang, Hanqin Tian, Katsumasa Tanaka, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin Poulter, Clément Albergel, Aki Tsuruta, Shamil Maksyutov, Rajesh Janardanan, Yosuke Niwa, Bo Zheng, Joël Thanwerdas, Dmitry Belikov, Arjo Segers, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1121–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025, 2025
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This study reconciles national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories with updated atmospheric inversion results to evaluate discrepancies for three principal GHG fluxes at the national level. Compared to our previous study, new satellite-based CO2 inversions were included and an updated mask of managed lands was used, improving agreement for Brazil and Canada. The proposed methodology can be regularly applied as a check to assess the gap between top-down inversions and bottom-up inventories.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
Biogeosciences, 22, 1447–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, 2025
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This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations (CO2 concentration- and emission-driven experiments). We successfully identified problems with regard to the global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues with regard to land use change CO2 emissions that should be solved in the latest generation of models.
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, 2025
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Despite forests being so important for mitigating climate change, there are still uncertainties about how much the changes in forest cover contribute to the cooling/warming of the climate. Climate models and real-world observations often disagree about the magnitude and even the direction of these changes. We constrain climate models scenarios of widespread deforestation with satellite and in-situ data and show that models still have difficulties representing the movement of heat and water.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
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The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Chlöe Natasha Schooling, Paul I. Palmer, Auke Visser, and Nicolas Bousserez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3949, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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This study presents a new method to estimate fossil fuel CO2 (ffCO2) emissions by modelling NOx chemistry. Our regression models predict NOx chemical rates and NO2:NO ratios with R² values above 0.95 using meteorological inputs. Incorporating these regressions reduces computational time compared to traditional methods and enables integration into model inversion frameworks. This scalable approach supports global emissions monitoring and climate change mitigation efforts.
Jenna Alyson Lee, Joseph H. Vineis, Mathieu A. Poupon, Laure Resplandy, and Bess B. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-871, 2025
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Concurrent sampling of environmental parameters, productivity rates, photopigments, and DNA were used to analyze a 24–L estuarine diatom bloom microcosm. Biogeochemical data and an ecological model indicated that the bloom was terminated by grazing. Comparisons to previous studies revealed (1) additional community and diversity complexity using 18S amplicon vs. traditional pigment–based analyses, and (2) a potential global productivity–diversity relationship using 18S and carbon transport rates.
Weiwei Xiong, Katsumasa Tanaka, Philippe Ciais, Daniel J. A. Johansson, and Mariliis Lehtveer
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1575–1612, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1575-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1575-2025, 2025
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emIAM v1.0 is a new emulator for integrated assessment models (IAMs) using global and regional time-independent marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for multiple greenhouse gases, optionally with time-dependent MAC curves for enhanced accuracy. Combined with climate emulators, emIAM enables development of cost-effective, multi-IAM emission pathways directly linked to temperature targets at low computational cost.
Hemraj Bhattarai, Maria Val Martin, Stephen Sitch, David H. Y. Yung, and Amos P. K. Tai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-804, 2025
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Wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change, posing various risks. We explore how future climate conditions will influence global wildfire activity and carbon emissions by 2100. Using advanced computer modeling, we found that while some regions remain stable, boreal forests will see a major rise in burned area and emissions. These changes are driven by drier conditions and increased vegetation growth, highlighting the urgent need for better fire management strategies.
Shihan Sun, Paul I. Palmer, Richard Siddans, Brian J. Kerridge, Lucy Ventress, Achim Edtbauer, Akima Ringsdorf, Eva Y. Pfannerstill, and Jonathan Williams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-778, 2025
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Isoprene released by plants can impact atmospheric chemistry and climate. The Amazon rainforest is a major source of isoprene. We derived isoprene emissions using satellite retrievals of isoprene columns and a chemical transport model. We evaluated our isoprene emission estimates using ground-based isoprene observations and satellite retrievals of formaldehyde. We found that using satellite retrievals of isoprene can help better understand isoprene emissions over the Amazon.
Philip John Wallhead, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Trond Kristiansen, and Richard Garth James Bellerby
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-76, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We developed a novel method to combine ocean data from observations and models, and applied it to produce gridded estimates of nutrients, oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity concentrations at latitudes >40° N and years 1980–2020. The new estimates showed improved accuracy and coverage relative to previous estimates, but highlighted remaining uncertainty in some poorly sampled regions. The work was largely motivated by a need for accurate input data for regional ocean models.
Kerstin Hartung, Bastian Kern, Nils-Arne Dreier, Jörn Geisbüsch, Mahnoosh Haghighatnasab, Patrick Jöckel, Astrid Kerkweg, Wilton Jaciel Loch, Florian Prill, and Daniel Rieger
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1001–1015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1001-2025, 2025
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The ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model system Community Interface (ComIn) library supports connecting third-party modules to the ICON model. Third-party modules can range from simple diagnostic Python scripts to full chemistry models. ComIn offers a low barrier for code extensions to ICON, provides multi-language support (Fortran, C/C++, and Python), and reduces the migration effort in response to new ICON releases. This paper presents the ComIn design principles and a range of use cases.
Ying Ye, Guy Munhoven, Peter Köhler, Martin Butzin, Judith Hauck, Özgür Gürses, and Christoph Völker
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 977–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-977-2025, 2025
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Many biogeochemistry models assume all material reaching the seafloor is remineralized and returned to solution, which is sufficient for studies on short-term climate change. Under long-term climate change, the carbon storage in sediments slows down carbon cycling and influences feedbacks in the atmosphere–ocean–sediment system. This paper describes the coupling of a sediment model to an ocean biogeochemistry model and presents results under the pre-industrial climate and under CO2 perturbation.
Fabian Maier, Eva Falge, Maksym Gachkivskyi, Stephan Henne, Ute Karstens, Dafina Kikaj, Ingeborg Levin, Alistair Manning, Christian Rödenbeck, and Christoph Gerbig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-477, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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The radioactive noble gas radon (222Rn) is a suitable natural tracer for atmospheric transport and mixing processes that can be used to validate and calibrate atmospheric transport models. However, this requires accurate estimates of the 222Rn flux from the soil into the atmosphere. In our study, we evaluate the reliability of process-based 222Rn flux maps for Europe using a 222Rn inversion. Our inversion results can give some indications on how to improve the process-based 222Rn flux maps.
Maureen Beaudor, Didier Hauglustaine, Juliette Lathière, Martin Van Damme, Lieven Clarisse, and Nicolas Vuichard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2017–2046, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025, 2025
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Agriculture is the biggest ammonia (NH3) source, impacting air quality, climate, and ecosystems. Because of food demand, NH3 emissions are projected to rise by 2100. Using a global model, we analyzed the impact of present and future NH3 emissions generated from a land model. Our results show improved ammonia patterns compared to a reference inventory. Future scenarios predict up to 70 % increase in global NH3 burden, with significant changes in radiative forcing that can greatly elevate N2O.
Pramod Kumar, Grégoire Broquet, Didier Hauglustaine, Maureen Beaudor, Lieven Clarisse, Martin Van Damme, Pierre Coheur, Anne Cozic, Bo Zheng, Beatriz Revilla Romero, Antony Delavois, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-162, 2025
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Global maps of the NH3 emissions over 2019–2022 are derived using IASI NH3 spaceborne observations, the LMDZ-INCA chemistry-transport model at 1.27°×2.5° resolution and mass balance approach. The average global NH3 emissions over the period are ~98 Tg NH3 yr-1, which is significantly higher than three reference inventories. The analysis provides confidence in the seasonal variability and regional budgets, and provides new insights into NH3 emissions at global and regional scales.
Fan Yang, Guanpeng Dong, Xiaoyu Meng, Richard A. Houghton, Yang Gao, Fanneng He, Meijiao Li, Wenjin Li, Zhihao Liu, Xudong Zhai, Pengfei Wu, Hongjuan Zhang, Qinqin Mao, Yuanzhi Yao, and Chao Yue
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-36, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We used a millennial dataset of land-use change in China, combined with comprehensive soil and vegetation carbon density datasets, to quantify China’s annual carbon emissions resulting from land-use change between 1000 and 2019 using a bookkeeping model. The annual carbon emission flux provides a robust historical baseline for assessing terrestrial ecosystem carbon budgets at national and provincial scales, both in the present and future.
Juliette Bernard, Elodie Salmon, Marielle Saunois, Shushi Peng, Penélope Serrano-Ortiz, Antoine Berchet, Palingamoorthy Gnanamoorthy, Joachim Jansen, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 863–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-863-2025, 2025
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Despite their importance, uncertainties remain in the evaluation of the drivers of temporal variability of methane emissions from wetlands on a global scale. Here, a simplified global model is developed, taking advantage of advances in remote-sensing data and in situ observations. The model reproduces the large spatial and temporal patterns of emissions, albeit with limitations in the tropics due to data scarcity. This model, while simple, can provide valuable insights into sensitivity analyses.
Frauke Bunsen, Judith Hauck, Sinhué Torres-Valdés, and Lars Nerger
Ocean Sci., 21, 437–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-437-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-437-2025, 2025
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Computer models are often used to estimate the ocean's CO2 uptake due to a lack of direct observations. Because such idealized models do not match precisely with the real world, we combine real-world observations of ocean temperature and salinity with a model and study the effect on the modeled air–sea CO2 flux (2010–2020). The corrections of temperature and salinity have their largest effect on regional CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean in winter and a small effect on the global CO2 uptake.
Alban Planchat, Laurent Bopp, and Lester Kwiatkowski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-523, 2025
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Disparities in ocean carbon sink estimates derived from observations and models raise questions about our ability to accurately assess its magnitude and trend. Essential for isolating the anthropogenic component of the total air-sea carbon flux estimated from observations, the pre-industrial air-sea carbon flux is a key source of uncertainty. Thus, we take a fresh look at this flux using the alkalinity budget, alongside the carbon budget which had previously been considered alone.
Kangari Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 763–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-763-2025, 2025
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The study aimed to improve the representation of wheat and rice in a land model for the Indian region. The modified model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, and carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific crop parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Zhixuan Guo, Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Simon P. K. Bowring, Ana Bastos, Florent Mouillot, Jiaying He, Minxuan Sun, Lei Zhu, Xiaomeng Du, Nan Wang, and Xiaomeng Huang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-556, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-556, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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To address the limitations of short time spans in satellite data and spatiotemporal discontinuity in site records, we reconstructed global monthly burned area maps at a half-degree resolution for 1901–2020 using machine learning models. The global burned area is predicted at 3.46–4.58 million km² per year, showing a decline from 1901 to 1978, an increase from 1978 to 2008, and a sharper decrease from 2008 to 2020. This dataset provides a benchmark for studies on fire ecology and carbon cycle.
Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Gabi Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Dann Mitchell, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí Stone, Claudia Tebaldi, Piotr Wolski, Wenxia Zhang, and Vivek K. Arora
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, 2025
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Climate model simulations of the response to human and natural influences together, natural climate influences alone, and greenhouse gases alone, among others, are key to quantifying human influence on the climate. The last set of such coordinated simulations underpinned key findings in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Here we propose a new set of such simulations to be used in the next generation of attribution studies, and to underpin the next IPCC report.
Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata, and Olivier Boucher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 257–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, 2025
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Reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases is important alongside CO2 for climate mitigation. Here, we look at how reducing their emissions compares to reducing CO2 using an Earth system model. While both types of gases contribute to warming, their regional climate impacts differ. Besides, the carbon cycle responds differently depending on whether climate change is driven by CO2 or non-CO2 gases. Considering both types of gases is important for carbon cycle analysis and climate mitigation strategies.
Vladimir Zieger, Thibaut Lecompte, Simon Guihéneuf, Yann Guevel, Manuel Bazzana, Thomas Gasser, and Yue He
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3918, 2025
Preprint archived
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Dynamic climate change metrics are more robust to get strong sustainable designs. This work aims to support adoption of such metrics by environmental assessment communities thanks to a: 1. clear and pedagogical presentation of up-to-date climate equations, climate parameters and associated uncertainties, 2. open-source assessment tool release, 3. dynamic metrics interpretation support. Adoption of new characterisation factors for temperature change metrics are recommended in future IPCC report.
Carolina Natel, David Martin Belda, Peter Anthoni, Neele Haß, Sam Rabin, and Almut Arneth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4064, 2025
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Complex models predict forest carbon responses to future climate change but are slow and computationally intensive, limiting large-scale analyses. We used machine learning to accelerate predictions from the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model. Our emulators, based on random forests and neural networks, achieved 97 % faster simulations. This approach enables rapid exploration of climate mitigation strategies and supports informed policy decisions.
Thu Hang Nguyen, Philippe Ciais, Liyang Liu, Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Elodie Salmon, Aram Kalhori, Christophe Guimbaud, Matthias Peichl, Joshua L. Ratcliffe, Koffi Dodji Noumonvi, and Xuefei Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-352, 2025
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We simulate virtual drainage at 10 pristine peatland sites. Over time, the emission factors of CO2 flux decrease and the reduction of CH4 emissions is amplified. The sensitivities of flux changes to drainage are primarily controlled by initial CO2 and CH4 fluxes, initial soil carbon content, peat vegetation community, air temperature and initial water table depth. Using GWP100, our simulation suggested only very small net GHG emission changes when peatland is drained for 50 years.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
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We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Adil Shah, Olivier Laurent, Pramod Kumar, Grégoire Broquet, Loïc Loigerot, Timothé Depelchin, Mathis Lozano, Camille Yver Kwok, Carole Philippon, Clément Romand, Elisa Allegrini, Matthieu Trombetti, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4089, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4089, 2025
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Acetylene mole fraction measurements from the Picarro G2203 were characterised. Abnormal sensor behaviour was observed in wet conditions. A dry linear calibration was derived, although this was invalid below 1.2 ppb due to unstable measurements. The instrument was used to measure acetylene as a methane tracer at a landfill site. Fluxes were derived from fourteen downwind transects using both raw and calibrated acetylene mole fraction, with raw measurements resulting in 8 % flux underestimation.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Hanna Lee, Stefano Materia, Julia E. M .S. Nabel, Taejin Park, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4114, 2025
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Earth System Models are the principal tools for scientists to study past, present, and future climate changes. This work investigates the ability of a set of them to represent the observed changes in vegetation, which are vital to estimating the impact of future climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study highlights the main limitations in correctly representing vegetation variability. These tools still need further development to improve our understanding of future changes.
Alexander Kurganskiy, Liang Feng, Neil Humpage, Paul I. Palmer, A. Jerome P. Woodwark, Stamatia Doniki, and Damien Weidmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-94, 2025
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This study introduces GEMINI-UK, the first UK-wide network using ground-based instruments to monitor net fluxes of CO2 and methane. By simulating its performance, we show that GEMINI-UK will significantly reduce uncertainties in these flux estimates, complementing data from existing tall towers and future satellite missions. The network will strengthen the UK's ability to track greenhouse gases, evaluate climate policies, and meet net-zero goals.
Binyuan Xu, Hanqin Tian, Shufen Pan, Xiaoyong Li, Ran Meng, Óscar Melo, Anne McDonald, María de los Ángeles Picone, Xiao-Peng Song, Edson Severnini, Katharine G. Young, and Feng Zhao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-527, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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This study focuses on land use change in South America, reconstructing the historical dynamics of four major crops (soybean, maize, wheat, and rice) from 1950 to 2020 by integrating multiple data sources. The results reveal a significant expansion in cropland, particularly for soybean, leading to a substantial reduction in natural vegetation such as forests and grasslands. The datasets can be used to assess the impacts of cropland expansion on carbon and nitrogen cycles in South America.
Yi Xi, Philippe Ciais, Dan Zhu, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Simon P. K. Bowring, Daniel S. Goll, and Ying-Ping Wang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-206, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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Including high-latitude deep carbon is critical for projecting future soil carbon emissions, yet it’s absent in most land surface models. Here we propose a new carbon accumulation protocol by integrating deep carbon from Yedoma deposits and representing the observed history of peat carbon formation in ORCHIDEE-MICT. Our results show an additional 157 PgC in present-day Yedoma deposits and a 1–5 m shallower peat depth, 43 % less passive soil carbon in peatlands against the convention protocol.
Nikola Besic, Nicolas Picard, Cédric Vega, Jean-Daniel Bontemps, Lionel Hertzog, Jean-Pierre Renaud, Fajwel Fogel, Martin Schwartz, Agnès Pellissier-Tanon, Gabriel Destouet, Frédéric Mortier, Milena Planells-Rodriguez, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 337–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-337-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-337-2025, 2025
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The creation of advanced mapping models for forest attributes, utilizing remote sensing data and incorporating machine or deep learning methods, has become a key area of interest in the domain of forest observation and monitoring. This paper introduces a method where we blend and collectively interpret five models dedicated to estimating forest canopy height. We achieve this through Bayesian model averaging, offering a comprehensive analysis of these remote-sensing-based products.
István Dunkl, Ana Bastos, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 151–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025, 2025
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While the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a climate mode, has a similar impact on CO2 growth rates across Earth system models, there is significant uncertainty in the processes behind this relationship. We found a compensatory effect that masks differences in the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate anomalies and observed that the carbon fluxes contributing to global CO2 anomalies originate from different regions and are caused by different drivers.
Chiranjit Das, Ravi Kumar Kunchala, Prabir K. Patra, Naveen Chandra, Kentaro Ishijima, and Toshinobu Machida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3976, 2025
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Our study compares model CO2 with aircraft and OCO-2 data to identify transport model errors to better policy-related flux estimation. The model align better with aircraft data than satellite data, especially over oceans, but struggles near the surface due to inaccurate CO2 estimates. Over the Amazon and Asian megacities, differences arise from limited measurements and coarse model resolution, highlighting the need for improved monitoring and higher-resolution data to capture emissions better.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Michał Gałkowski, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Santiago Botía, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 639–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, 2025
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CO2 mole fractions simulated over a global set of stations showed an overestimation of CO2 if the diurnal cycle is missing in biogenic fluxes. This leads to biases in the estimated fluxes derived from the regional-scale inversions. Interannual variability of estimated biogenic fluxes is also affected by the exclusion of the CO2 diurnal cycle. The findings point to the importance of including the diurnal variations of CO2 in the biogenic fluxes used as priors in global and regional inversions.
Yangyang Fu, Xiuzhi Chen, Chaoqing Song, Xiaojuan Huang, Jie Dong, Qiongyan Peng, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 95–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-95-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-95-2025, 2025
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This study proposed the Winter-Triticeae Crops Index (WTCI), which had great performance and stable spatiotemporal transferability in identifying winter-triticeae crops in 66 countries worldwide, with an overall accuracy of 87.7 %. The first global 30 m resolution distribution maps of winter-triticeae crops from 2017 to 2022 were further produced based on the WTCI method. The product can serve as an important basis for agricultural applications.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
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Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Vivek K. Arora, Aranildo Lima, and Rajesh Shrestha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 291–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-291-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-291-2025, 2025
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This study presents a Canada-wide assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-climatology of the region's major river basins. We find that precipitation, runoff, and temperature are all expected to increase over Canada in the future. The northerly Mackenzie and Yukon rivers are relatively less affected by climate change compared to the southerly Fraser and Columbia rivers, which are located in the milder northwestern Pacific region.
Diego Santaren, Janne Hakkarainen, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Erik Koene, Frédéric Chevallier, Iolanda Ialongo, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Janne Nurmela, Johanna Tamminen, Laia Amorós, Dominik Brunner, and Grégoire Broquet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 211–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-211-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates data-driven inversion methods for estimating CO2 emissions from local sources, such as power plants and cities, using meteorological data and XCO2 and NO2 satellite images rather than atmospheric transport modeling. We assess and compare the performance of five different methods using simulations of 1 year of satellite images, taken from the upcoming Copernicus CO2 Monitoring Mission, covering 15 power plants and the city of Berlin, Germany.
Weiyu Zhang, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Cyril J. Morcrette, Wuhu Feng, Kalli Furtado, Paul R. Field, Chih-Chieh Chen, Andrew Gettelman, Piers M. Forster, Daniel R. Marsh, and Alexandru Rap
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 473–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-473-2025, 2025
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Contrail cirrus is the largest, but also most uncertain, contribution of aviation to global warming. We evaluate, for the first time, the impact of the host climate model on contrail cirrus properties. Substantial differences exist between contrail cirrus formation, persistence, and radiative effects in the host climate models. Reliable contrail cirrus simulations require advanced representation of cloud optical properties and microphysics, which should be better constrained by observations.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara H. Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Yi Xi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 22, 305–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025, 2025
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This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Lilian Vallet, Charbel Abdallah, Thomas Lauvaux, Lilian Joly, Michel Ramonet, Philippe Ciais, Morgan Lopez, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Florent Mouillot
Biogeosciences, 22, 213–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-213-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-213-2025, 2025
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The 2022 fire season had a huge impact on European temperate forest, with several large fires exhibiting prolonged soil combustion reported. We analyzed CO and CO2 concentration recorded at nearby atmospheric towers, revealing intense smoldering combustion. We refined a fire emission model to incorporate this process. We estimated 7.95 Mteq CO2 fire emission, twice the global estimate. Fires contributed to 1.97 % of France's annual carbon footprint, reducing forest carbon sink by 30 % this year.
Tatsuki Tokoro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Shintaro Takao, Shu Saito, Daisuke Sasano, Kazutaka Enyo, Masao Ishii, Naohiro Kosugi, Tsuneo Ono, Kazuaki Tadokoro, and Yukihiro Nojiri
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3792, 2025
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We studied how landwater from the mainland of Japan affects the ocean's carbon cycle using decades of Total Alkalinity (TA) data from the Northwest Pacific. Statistical analysis revealed landwater as a major TA source, reducing coastal acidification by 65 %, but with minimal impact on atmospheric CO2 absorption. Future work aims to refine results with depth-specific data and apply findings to global models.
Hazel Mooney, Stephen Arnold, Benjamin Silver, Piers Forster, and Catherine Scott
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3895, 2025
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We simulate the potential changes in natural emissions of volatile gases from the land surface in the UK following afforestation from present-day woodland cover of 13 % to 19 % by 2050. We estimate present-day annual UK emissions of isoprene at 40 kt yr-1 and total monoterpenes at 46 kt yr-1, but emissions from afforested experiments show between a 4 % decrease and 131 % increase in emissions, explained by the variation in emissions activity between and within needleleaf and broadleaf trees.
Petri Clusius, Metin Baykara, Carlton Xavier, Putian Zhou, Juniper Tyree, Benjamin Foreback, Mikko Äijälä, Frans Graeffe, Tuukka Petäjä, Markku Kulmala, Pauli Paasonen, Paul I. Palmer, and Michael Boy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-39, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Cloud condensation nuclei are necessary to form clouds, and their size distribution affects cloud properties and therefore Earth’s energy budget. This study modelled the origins of cloud condensation nuclei at SMEAR II, Hyytiälä, Finland, and found that primary emissions and new particle formation separately contribute to more than half of the condensation nuclei, but they suppress each other, leading to current concentrations. Largest condensation nuclei originated mostly from emissions.
Beata Bukosa, Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher, Gordon Brailsford, Dan Smale, Elizabeth D. Keller, W. Troy Baisden, Miko U. F. Kirschbaum, Donna L. Giltrap, Lìyı̌n Liáng, Stuart Moore, Rowena Moss, Sylvia Nichol, Jocelyn Turnbull, Alex Geddes, Daemon Kennett, Dora Hidy, Zoltán Barcza, Louis A. Schipper, Aaron M. Wall, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hitoshi Mukai, and Andrea Brandon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3866, 2025
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We used atmospheric measurements and inverse modeling to estimate New Zealand's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and removals from 2011 to 2020. Our study reveals that New Zealand's land absorbs more CO₂ than previously estimated, particularly in areas dominated by indigenous forests. Our results highlight gaps in current national CO₂ estimates and methods, suggesting a need for further research to improve emissions reporting and refine approaches to track progress toward climate mitigation goals.
Fortunat Joos, Sebastian Lienert, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 19–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-19-2025, 2025
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How plants regulate their exchange of CO2 and water with the atmosphere under global warming is critical for their carbon uptake and their cooling influence. We analyze the isotope ratio of atmospheric CO2 and detect no significant decadal trends in the seasonal cycle amplitude. The data are consistent with the regulation towards leaf CO2 and intrinsic water use efficiency growing proportionally to atmospheric CO2, in contrast to recent suggestions of downregulation of CO2 and water fluxes.
Enhui Liao, Laure Resplandy, Fan Yang, Yangyang Zhao, Sam Ditkovsky, Manon Malsang, Jenna Pearson, Andrew C. Ross, Robert Hallberg, and Charles Stock
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3646, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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We introduce a regional ocean model of the northern Indian Ocean, a region central to the livelihoods and economies of countries that comprise about one-third of the world’s population. The model successfully represents the key physical and biogeochemical features of the region and is well suited for physical and biogeochemical studies on timescales ranging from weeks to decades, in addition to supporting marine resource applications and management in the northern Indian Ocean.
Jianyong Ma, Almut Arneth, Benjamin Smith, Peter Anthoni, Xu-Ri, Peter Eliasson, David Wårlind, Martin Wittenbrink, and Stefan Olin
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-223, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-223, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful greenhouse gas mainly released from natural and agricultural soils. This study examines how global soil N2O emissions have changed from 1961 to 2020 and identifies key factors driving these changes using an ecological model. The findings highlight croplands as the largest source, with factors like fertilizer use and climate change enhancing emissions. Rising CO2 levels, however, can partially mitigate N2O emissions through increased plant nitrogen uptake.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
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The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin G. De Kauwe, Samuel Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig R. Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
Biogeosciences, 21, 5517–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, 2024
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This paper evaluates land models – computer-based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics; land carbon, water, and energy cycles; and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning and AI approaches to show that, despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
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This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Brendan R. Carter, Jörg Schwinger, Rolf Sonnerup, Andrea J. Fassbender, Jonathan D. Sharp, and Larissa M. Dias
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-560, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-560, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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We infer ocean gas exchange and circulation from ocean tracer measurements and use this to create code to estimate the amount of carbon dioxide dissolved in the ocean that is there due to human emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere. The code works across the ocean depths for the past, present, or future from information about the location, temperature, and saltiness of the seawater. We produce a data product with estimates throughout the ocean throughout the last ~300 and next ~500 years.
Bettina K. Gier, Manuel Schlund, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Sönke Zaehle, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 21, 5321–5360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, 2024
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This study investigates present-day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better but also show many remaining biases. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with a nitrogen cycle is found, with only small differences between emission- and concentration-based simulations. Thus, we recommend using emission-driven simulations in CMIP7 by default and including the nitrogen cycle in all future carbon cycle models.
Le Niu, Songbin Wu, Robbie M. Andrew, Zi Shao, Jiaoyue Wang, and Fengming Xi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-437, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-437, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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This study provides a precise bottom-up quantification to cement carbonation sinks at national and global levels. It shows the global CO2 uptake by cement materials increases from 7.74 Mt yr-1 in 1928 to 0.84 Gt yr-1 in 2023, and projected to rise to 0.86 Gt yr-1 in 2024, the accumulated CO2 uptake offsets about 46 % of the cement process emission. The dominance in cement carbon uptake has shifted from the USA, Japan and some European countries to emerging economies such as China and India.
Riccardo Martellucci, Michele Giani, Elena Mauri, Laurent Coppola, Melf Paulsen, Marine Fourrier, Sara Pensieri, Vanessa Cardin, Carlotta Dentico, Roberto Bozzano, Carolina Cantoni, Anna Lucchetta, Alfredo Izquierdo, Miguel Bruno, and Ingunn Skjelvan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5333–5356, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5333-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5333-2024, 2024
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As part of the ATL2MED demonstration experiment, two autonomous surface vehicles undertook a 9-month mission from the northeastern Atlantic to the Adriatic Sea. Biofouling affected the measurement of variables such as conductivity and dissolved oxygen. COVID-19 limited the availability of discrete samples for validation. We present correction methods for salinity and dissolved oxygen. We use model products to correct salinity and apply the Argo floats in-air correction method for oxygen
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Gabriel Destouet, Nikola Besic, Emilie Joetzjer, and Matthias Cuntz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3243, 2024
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Over the past two decades, global flux tower networks have provided valuable insights into ecosystem functioning. However, the standard eddy-covariance method used for processing flux data has limitations, leading to data loss and limited resolution due to fixed time steps. This paper introduces a new method using wavelet analysis to increase temporal resolution. Applied at the FR-Hes flux tower, this approach provides high-resolution flux estimates, enhancing the accuracy of flux measurements.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew Macdougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Seferian, Lori Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Abigail Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, 2024
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This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated zero emissions commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Sabine Egerer, Stefanie Falk, Dorothea Mayer, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 21, 5005–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024, 2024
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Using a state-of-the-art land model, we find that bioenergy plants can store carbon more efficiently than forests over long periods in the soil, in geological reservoirs, or by substituting fossil-fuel-based energy. Planting forests is more suitable for reaching climate targets by 2050. The carbon removal potential depends also on local environmental conditions. These considerations have important implications for climate policy, spatial planning, nature conservation, and agriculture.
Flossie Brown, Gerd Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Paulo Artaxo, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Matteo Detto, Ninong Komala, Luciana Rizzo, Nestor Rojas, Ines dos Santos Vieira, Steven Turnock, Hans Verbeeck, and Alfonso Zambrano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12537–12555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, 2024
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Ozone is a pollutant that is detrimental to human and plant health. Ozone monitoring sites in the tropics are limited, so models are often used to understand ozone exposure. We use measurements from the tropics to evaluate ozone from the UK Earth system model, UKESM1. UKESM1 is able to capture the pattern of ozone in the tropics, except in southeast Asia, although it systematically overestimates it at all sites. This work highlights that UKESM1 can capture seasonal and hourly variability.
Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Maria Carolina Duran-Rojas, Thais Michele Rosan, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Louise P. Chini, and George C. Hurtt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3165, 2024
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Indonesia is 3 world's highest carbon emitter from land use change. However, there are uncertainties of the carbon emission of Indonesia that can be reduced with satellite-based datasets. But later, we found that the uncertainties are also caused by the difference of carbon pool in various models. Our best estimation of carbon emissions from land use change in Indonesia is 0.12 ± 0.02 PgC/yr with steady trend. This double when include peat fire and peat drainage emissions.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Alexandre Héraud, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Theodoros Christoudias, Jonilda Kushta, and Jean Sciare
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-410, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-410, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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In this study, we estimate emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in 2022 at high-resolution at the global scale, using satellite observations. We provide maps of the emissions and identify several types of sources. Our results are similar to the EDGAR emission inventory. However, differences are found in countries with lower observation densities and lower emissions.
Daniel Pönisch, Henry C. Bittig, Martin Kolbe, Ingo Schuffenhauer, Stefan Otto, Peter Holtermann, Kusala Premaratne, and Gregor Rehder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3246, 2024
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Rewetted peatlands exhibit natural spatial and temporal biogeochemical heterogeneity, influenced by water level and vegetation. This study investigated the variability of the distribution of GHGs in a brackish-rewetted peatland. Two innovative sensor-equipped landers were used to measure a wide range of marine physicochemical variables at high temporal resolution. The measurements revealed strong fluctuations in CO2 and CH4, expressed as multi-day, diurnal and event-based variability.
Olivier Bouriaud, Ernst-Detlef Schulze, Konstantin Gregor, Issam Bourkhris, Peter Högberg, Roland Irslinger, Phillip Papastefanou, Julia Pongratz, Anja Rammig, Riccardo Valentini, and Christian Körner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3092, 2024
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The impact of harvesting on forests' carbon sink capacities is debated. One view is that their sink strength is resilient to harvesting, the other that it disrupts these capacities. Our work shows that leaf area index (LAI) has been overlooked in this discussion. We found that temperate forests' carbon uptake is largely insensitive to variations in LAI beyond about 4 m² m-², but that forests operate at higher levels.
Allison Hogikyan and Laure Resplandy
Biogeosciences, 21, 4621–4636, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4621-2024, 2024
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Rising atmospheric CO2 influences ocean carbon chemistry, leading to ocean acidification. Global warming introduces spatial patterns in the intensity of ocean acidification. We show that the most prominent spatial patterns are controlled by warming-driven changes in rainfall and evaporation, not by the direct effect of warming on carbon chemistry and pH. These evaporation and rainfall patterns oppose acidification in saltier parts of the ocean and enhance acidification in fresher regions.
Gesa K. Eirund, Matthieu Leclair, Matthias Muennich, and Nicolas Gruber
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2922, 2024
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To realistically simulate small-scale processes in the atmosphere and ocean, such as clouds or mixing, high-resolution numerical models are needed. However, these models are computationally very demanding. Here, we present a newly developed atmosphere-ocean model, which is able to resolve most of these processes and is less expensive to run, due to its computational design. Our model can be used for a wide range of applications, as the investigation of marine heatwaves or future projections.
Yonghang Hu, Chenguang Tian, Xu Yue, Yadong Lei, Yang Cao, Rongbin Xu, and Yuming Guo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-414, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-414, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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We develop a global dataset of daily fire-sourced PM2.5 concentration at a spatial resolution of 0.25° for 2000–2023, using a chemical transport model driven with two fire emission inventories and a machine learning approach trained with ground measurements from over 9000 sites. The dataset shows significant spatiotemporal variations of fire PM2.5 in the past decades, serving a useful tool for exploring the impacts of fire-related air pollutants on climate, ecosystems, and public health.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Juliette Bernard, Catherine Prigent, Carlos Jimenez, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Bernhard Lehner, Elodie Salmon, Philippe Ciais, Zhen Zhang, Shushi Peng, and Marielle Saunois
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-466, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-466, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Wetlands are responsible for about a third of global emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. We have developed the GIEMS-MethaneCentric (GIEMS-MC) dataset to represent the dynamics of wetland extent on a global scale (0.25°x0.25° resolution, monthly time step). This updated resource combines satellite data and existing wetland databases, covering 1992 to 2020. Consistent maps of other methane-emitting surface waters (lakes, rivers, reservoirs, rice paddies) are also provided.
Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-31, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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We introduce a novel approach to compare Earth System Model output using a causality-based approach. The analysis of interactions between atmospheric, oceanic, and biogeochemical variables in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre highlights the dynamics of each model. This method reveals potential underlying causes of model differences, offering a tool for enhanced model evaluation and improved understanding of complex Earth system dynamics under past and future climates.
Ingrid Super, Tia Scarpelli, Arjan Droste, and Paul I. Palmer
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7263–7284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7263-2024, 2024
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Monitoring greenhouse gas emission reductions requires a combination of models and observations, as well as an initial emission estimate. Each component provides information with a certain level of certainty and is weighted to yield the most reliable estimate of actual emissions. We describe efforts for estimating the uncertainty in the initial emission estimate, which significantly impacts the outcome. Hence, a good uncertainty estimate is key for obtaining reliable information on emissions.
Jinghui Lian, Olivier Laurent, Mali Chariot, Luc Lienhardt, Michel Ramonet, Hervé Utard, Thomas Lauvaux, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Karina Cucchi, Laurent Millair, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5821–5839, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5821-2024, 2024
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We have designed and deployed a mid-cost medium-precision CO2 sensor monitoring network in Paris since July 2020. The data are automatically calibrated by a newly implemented data processing system. The accuracies of the mid-cost instruments vary from 1.0 to 2.4 ppm for hourly afternoon measurements. Our model–data analyses highlight prospects for integrating mid-cost instrument data with high-precision measurements to improve fine-scale CO2 emission quantification in urban areas.
Pharahilda M. Steur, Hubertus A. Scheeren, Gerbrand Koren, Getachew A. Adnew, Wouter Peters, and Harro A. J. Meijer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 11005–11027, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11005-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11005-2024, 2024
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We present records of the triple oxygen isotope signature (Δ(17O)) of atmospheric CO2 obtained with laser absorption spectroscopy from two mid-latitude stations. Significant interannual variability is observed in both records. A model sensitivity study suggests that stratosphere–troposphere exchange, which carries high-Δ(17O) CO2 from the stratosphere into the troposphere, causes most of the variability. This makes Δ(17O) a potential tracer for stratospheric intrusions into the troposphere.
Neil Humpage, Hartmut Boesch, William Okello, Jia Chen, Florian Dietrich, Mark F. Lunt, Liang Feng, Paul I. Palmer, and Frank Hase
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5679–5707, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5679-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5679-2024, 2024
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We used a Bruker EM27/SUN spectrometer within an automated weatherproof enclosure to measure greenhouse gas column concentrations over a 3-month period in Jinja, Uganda. The portability of the EM27/SUN allows us to evaluate satellite and model data in locations not covered by traditional validation networks. This is of particular value in tropical Africa, where extensive terrestrial ecosystems are a significant store of carbon and play a key role in the atmospheric budgets of CO2 and CH4.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Jonathan Baker, Clément Bricaud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Lluis Castrillo, Lijing Cheng, Frederic Chevallier, Daniele Ciani, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Gilles Garric, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Kevin Hodges, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Thomas Lavergne, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Audrey Minière, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Ad Stoffelen, Sulian Thual, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, Chunxue Yang, and Hao Zuo
State Planet, 4-osr8, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, 2024
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Tia R. Scarpelli, Paul I. Palmer, Mark Lunt, Ingrid Super, and Arjan Droste
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10773–10791, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10773-2024, 2024
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Under the Paris Agreement, countries must track their anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This study describes a method to determine self-consistent estimates for combustion emissions and natural fluxes of CO2 from atmospheric data. We report consistent estimates inferred using this approach from satellite data and ground-based data over Europe, suggesting that satellite data can be used to determine national anthropogenic CO2 emissions for countries where ground-based CO2 data are absent.
Gabriela Sophia, Silvia Caldararu, Benjamin David Stocker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4169-2024, 2024
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Through an extensive global dataset of leaf nutrient resorption and a multifactorial analysis, we show that the majority of spatial variation in nutrient resorption may be driven by leaf habit and type, with thicker, longer-lived leaves having lower resorption efficiencies. Climate, soil fertility and soil-related factors emerge as strong drivers with an additional effect on its role. These results are essential for comprehending plant nutrient status, plant productivity and nutrient cycling.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Richard Engelen, Sander Houweling, Dominik Brunner, Aki Tsuruta, Bradley Matthews, Prabir K. Patra, Dmitry Belikov, Rona L. Thompson, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wenxin Zhang, Arjo J. Segers, Giuseppe Etiope, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Philippe Peylin, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Robbie M. Andrew, David Bastviken, Antoine Berchet, Grégoire Broquet, Giulia Conchedda, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Gütschow, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Ronny Lauerwald, Tiina Markkanen, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Isabelle Pison, Pierre Regnier, Espen Solum, Marko Scholze, Maria Tenkanen, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, and John R. Worden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4325–4350, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, 2024
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This study provides an overview of data availability from observation- and inventory-based CH4 emission estimates. It systematically compares them and provides recommendations for robust comparisons, aiming to steadily engage more parties in using observational methods to complement their UNFCCC submissions. Anticipating improvements in atmospheric modelling and observations, future developments need to resolve knowledge gaps in both approaches and to better quantify remaining uncertainty.
Cynthia Whaley, Montana Etten-Bohm, Courtney Schumacher, Ayodeji Akingunola, Vivek Arora, Jason Cole, Michael Lazare, David Plummer, Knut von Salzen, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7141–7155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7141-2024, 2024
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This paper describes how lightning was added as a process in the Canadian Earth System Model in order to interactively respond to climate changes. As lightning is an important cause of global wildfires, this new model development allows for more realistic projections of how wildfires may change in the future, responding to a changing climate.
Josselin Doc, Michel Ramonet, François-Marie Bréon, Delphine Combaz, Mali Chariot, Morgan Lopez, Marc Delmotte, Cristelle Cailteau-Fischbach, Guillaume Nief, Nathanaël Laporte, Thomas Lauvaux, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2826, 2024
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Description of the network for measuring greenhouse gas concentrations in the Paris region and analysis of eight years of continuous monitoring.
Jaime A. Riano Sanchez, Nicolas Vuichard, and Philippe Peylin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1227–1253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1227-2024, 2024
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We quantify the projected change in land carbon store (CLCS) for different socioeconomic scenarios (SSPs). Using factorial simulations of a land surface model, we estimate the CLCS uncertainties associated with land use change (LUC) and nitrogen (N) deposition trajectories. Our study highlights the need for delivering additional LUC and N deposition trajectories from integrated assessment models for each SSP in order to accurately assess their impacts on the carbon cycle and climate.
Thi Lan Anh Dinh, Daniel Goll, Philippe Ciais, and Ronny Lauerwald
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6725–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, 2024
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The study assesses the performance of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) ORCHIDEE in capturing the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks across Europe. Comparisons with observations reveal that the model accurately represents carbon fluxes and stocks. Despite the underestimations in certain land-use conversions, the model describes general trends in soil carbon response to land-use change, aligning with the site observations.
Timothée Bourgeois, Olivier Torres, Friederike Fröb, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Giang T. Tran, Jörg Schwinger, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jean Negrel, David Keller, Andreas Oschlies, Laurent Bopp, and Fortunat Joos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2768, 2024
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Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.
Misa Ishizawa, Douglas Chan, Doug Worthy, Elton Chan, Felix Vogel, Joe R. Melton, and Vivek K. Arora
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10013–10038, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10013-2024, 2024
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Methane (CH4) emissions in Canada for 2007–2017 were estimated using Canada’s surface greenhouse gas measurements. The estimated emissions show no significant trend, but emission uncertainty was reduced as more measurement sites became available. Notably for climate change, we find the wetland CH4 emissions show a positive correlation with surface air temperature in summer. Canada’s measurement network could monitor future CH4 emission changes and compliance with climate change mitigation goals.
Xinyi Zhou, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian, and Xiaofei Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9923–9937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9923-2024, 2024
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With a climate–vegetation–chemistry coupled model, we explore global climatic responses to the ozone–vegetation interactions of the present day. We find strong warming and drying effects due to the ozone-induced inhibition on plant stomatal conductance, especially over polluted regions such as the eastern US and China. These climatic perturbations further enhance surface ozone by decreasing dry deposition but reduce aerosol optical depth by increasing cloudiness and the drought tendency.
Marit Sandstad, Borgar Aamaas, Ane Nordlie Johansen, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Glen Philip Peters, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Benjamin Mark Sanderson, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6589–6625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6589-2024, 2024
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The CICERO-SCM has existed as a Fortran model since 1999 that calculates the radiative forcing and concentrations from emissions and is an upwelling diffusion energy balance model of the ocean that calculates temperature change. In this paper, we describe an updated version ported to Python and publicly available at https://github.com/ciceroOslo/ciceroscm (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10548720). This version contains functionality for parallel runs and automatic calibration.
Minna Ma, Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-29, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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A new model (ORCHIDEE-NLAT) was developed to estimate lateral nitrogen (N) transport from land to oceans through rivers at daily step. The model includes transport of water and N, as well as the decomposition of dissolved organic N and particulate organic, and denitrification of dissolved inorganic N. Model evaluations indicate that ORCHIDEE-NLAT reproduce observed rates and seasonal variations of water discharge and total N flow well.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, 2024
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Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the CMIP6-LUMIP project. We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.20 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasise the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Yosuke Niwa, Yasunori Tohjima, Yukio Terao, Tazu Saeki, Akihiko Ito, Taku Umezawa, Kyohei Yamada, Motoki Sasakawa, Toshinobu Machida, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hideki Nara, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Hitoshi Mukai, Yukio Yoshida, Shinji Morimoto, Shinya Takatsuji, Kazuhiro Tsuboi, Yousuke Sawa, Hidekazu Matsueda, Kentaro Ishijima, Ryo Fujita, Daisuke Goto, Xin Lan, Kenneth Schuldt, Michal Heliasz, Tobias Biermann, Lukasz Chmura, Jarsolaw Necki, and Irène Xueref-Remy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2457, 2024
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This study estimated regional and sectoral emission contributions to the unprecedented surge of atmospheric methane for 2020–2022. The methane is the second most important greenhouse gas and its emissions reduction is urgently required to mitigate the global warming. Numerical modeling-based estimates with three different sets of atmospheric observations consistently suggested large contributions of biogenic emissions from South Asia and Southeast Asia to the surge of atmospheric methane.
Fang Li, Zhimin Zhou, Samuel Levis, Stephen Sitch, Felicity Hayes, Zhaozhong Feng, Peter B. Reich, Zhiyi Zhao, and Yanqing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6173–6193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, 2024
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A new scheme is developed to model the surface ozone damage to vegetation in regional and global process-based models. Based on 4210 data points from ozone experiments, it accurately reproduces statistically significant linear or nonlinear photosynthetic and stomatal responses to ozone in observations for all vegetation types. It also enables models to implicitly capture the variability in plant ozone tolerance and the shift among species within a vegetation type.
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan C. Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2441, 2024
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Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use model projections, including CO2 fertilization among other upgrades, from the MAgPIE and IMAGE models under three scenarios, highlighting differences, uncertainty hotspots, and harmonization effects. Key findings include reduced bioenergy crop demand projections and differences in grassland area allocation and sizes, with socioeconomic-climate scenarios' largest effect on variance starting in 2030.
Matthew W. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Maria Lucia F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Andrew J. Hartley, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Joe R. McNorton, Fiona R. Spuler, Jakob B. Wessel, John T. Abatzoglou, Liana O. Anderson, Niels Andela, Sally Archibald, Dolors Armenteras, Eleanor Burke, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Hamish Clarke, Stefan H. Doerr, Paulo M. Fernandes, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Harris, Piyush Jain, Crystal A. Kolden, Tiina Kurvits, Seppe Lampe, Sarah Meier, Stacey New, Mark Parrington, Morgane M. G. Perron, Yuquan Qu, Natasha S. Ribeiro, Bambang H. Saharjo, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Veerachai Tanpipat, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, and Gavriil Xanthopoulos
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024
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This inaugural State of Wildfires report catalogues extreme fires of the 2023–2024 fire season. For key events, we analyse their predictability and drivers and attribute them to climate change and land use. We provide a seasonal outlook and decadal projections. Key anomalies occurred in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia, with other high-impact events catalogued worldwide. Climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fires, and mitigation is required to lessen future risk.
Neill Mackay, Taimoor Sohail, Jan David Zika, Richard G. Williams, Oliver Andrews, and Andrew James Watson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5987–6005, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5987-2024, 2024
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The ocean absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, mitigating climate change, but estimates of the uptake do not always agree. There is a need to reconcile these differing estimates and to improve our understanding of ocean carbon uptake. We present a new method for estimating ocean carbon uptake and test it with model data. The method effectively diagnoses the ocean carbon uptake from limited data and therefore shows promise for reconciling different observational estimates.
Nil Irvalı, Ulysses S. Ninnemann, Are Olsen, Neil L. Rose, David J. R. Thornalley, Tor L. Mjell, and François Counillon
Geochronology, 6, 449–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-6-449-2024, 2024
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Marine sediments are excellent archives for reconstructing past changes in climate and ocean circulation. Yet, dating uncertainties, particularly during the 20th century, pose major challenges. Here we propose a novel chronostratigraphic approach that uses anthropogenic signals, such as the oceanic 13C Suess effect and spheroidal carbonaceous fly-ash particles, to reduce age model uncertainties in high-resolution marine archives over the 20th century.
Bernhard Lehner, Mira Anand, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Florence Tan, Filipe Aires, George H. Allen, Pilippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Nick Davidson, C. Max Finlayson, Thomas Gumbricht, Lammert Hilarides, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Maartje C. Korver, Peter B. McIntyre, Szabolcs Nagy, David Olefeldt, Tamlin M. Pavelsky, Jean-Francois Pekel, Benjamin Poulter, Catherine Prigent, Jida Wang, Thomas A. Worthington, Dai Yamazaki, and Michele Thieme
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-204, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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The Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD) version 2 distinguishes a total of 33 non-overlapping wetland classes, providing a static map of the world’s inland surface waters. It contains cell fractions of wetland extents per class at a grid cell resolution of ~500 m. The total combined extent of all classes including all inland and coastal waterbodies and wetlands of all inundation frequencies—that is, the maximum extent—covers 18.2 million km2, equivalent to 13.4 % of total global land area.
Jens Krause, Peter Anthoni, Mike Harfoot, Moritz Kupisch, and Almut Arneth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1646, 2024
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While animal biodiversity is facing a global crisis as more and more species are becoming endangered or extinct, the role of animals for the functioning of ecosystems is still not fully understood. We contribute to bridging this gap by coupling a animal population model with a vegetation and thus enable future research in this topic.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
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The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, and Libo Wang
Biogeosciences, 21, 3339–3371, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, 2024
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Terrestrial biosphere models can either prescribe the geographical distribution of biomes or simulate them dynamically, capturing climate-change-driven biome shifts. We isolate and examine the differences between these different land cover implementations. We find that the simulated terrestrial carbon sink at the end of the 21st century is twice as large in simulations with dynamic land cover than in simulations with prescribed land cover due to important range shifts in the Arctic and Amazon.
Li-Qing Jiang, Tim P. Boyer, Christopher R. Paver, Hyelim Yoo, James R. Reagan, Simone R. Alin, Leticia Barbero, Brendan R. Carter, Richard A. Feely, and Rik Wanninkhof
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3383–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3383-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we unveil a data product featuring ten coastal ocean acidification variables. These indicators are provided on 1°×1° spatial grids at 14 standardized depth levels, ranging from the surface to a depth of 500 m, along the North American ocean margins.
Fabian Maier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ingeborg Levin, Christoph Gerbig, Maksym Gachkivskyi, and Samuel Hammer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8183–8203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8183-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8183-2024, 2024
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We investigate the usage of discrete radiocarbon (14C)-based fossil fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO2) concentration estimates vs. continuous carbon monoxide (CO)-based ffCO2 estimates to evaluate the seasonal cycle of ffCO2 emissions in an urban region with an inverse modeling framework. We find that the CO-based ffCO2 estimates allow us to reconstruct robust seasonal cycles, which show the distinct COVID-19 drawdown in 2020 and can be used to validate emission inventories.
Rodrigo Rivera-Martinez, Pramod Kumar, Olivier Laurent, Gregoire Broquet, Christopher Caldow, Ford Cropley, Diego Santaren, Adil Shah, Cécile Mallet, Michel Ramonet, Leonard Rivier, Catherine Juery, Olivier Duclaux, Caroline Bouchet, Elisa Allegrini, Hervé Utard, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4257–4290, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4257-2024, 2024
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We explore the use of metal oxide semiconductors (MOSs) as a low-cost alternative for detecting and measuring CH4 emissions from industrial facilities. MOSs were exposed to several controlled releases to test their accuracy in detecting and quantifying emissions. Two reconstruction models were compared, and emission estimates were computed using a Gaussian dispersion model. Findings show that MOSs can provide accurate emission estimates with a 25 % emission rate error and a 9.5 m location error.
Chuanlong Zhou, Biqing Zhu, Antoine Halff, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Simon Bowring, Simon Ben Arous, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-173, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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After Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe's energy dynamics shifted significantly. Our study introduces updated datasets tracking changes in natural gas supply, usage, and transmission within the EU27&UK. We discovered that Europe adapted to losing Russian gas by increasing LNG imports and shifting to renewables. Our insights could shape future energy policies and climate research.
Santiago Botía, Saqr Munassar, Thomas Koch, Danilo Custodio, Luana S. Basso, Shujiro Komiya, Jost V. Lavric, David Walter, Manuel Gloor, Giordane Martins, Stijn Naus, Gerbrand Koren, Ingrid Luijkx, Stijn Hantson, John B. Miller, Wouter Peters, Christian Rödenbeck, and Christoph Gerbig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1735, 2024
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This study uses CO2 data from the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory and airborne profiles to estimate net carbon exchange. We found that the biogeographic Amazon is a net carbon sink, while the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes are net carbon sources, resulting in an overall neutral balance. To further reduce the uncertainty in our estimates we call for an expansion of the monitoring capacity, especially in the Amazon-Andes foothills.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, and Julia Marshall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1382, 2024
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The carbon uptake period (CUP) refers to the time of the year when there is net absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere to the land. Several studies have assessed changes in CUP based on seasonal metrics from CO2 mole fraction measurements to understand the response of terrestrial biosphere to climate variations. However, we find that the CUP derived from CO2 mole fraction measurements are not likely to provide an accurate magnitude of the actual changes occurring over the surface.
Kim A. P. Faassen, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Raquel González-Armas, Bert G. Heusinkveld, Ivan Mammarella, Wouter Peters, and Ingrid T. Luijkx
Biogeosciences, 21, 3015–3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3015-2024, 2024
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The ratio between atmospheric O2 and CO2 can be used to characterize the carbon balance at the surface. By combining a model and observations from the Hyytiälä forest (Finland), we show that using atmospheric O2 and CO2 measurements from a single height provides a weak constraint on the surface CO2 exchange because large-scale processes such as entrainment confound this signal. We therefore recommend always using multiple heights of O2 and CO2 measurements to study surface CO2 exchange.
Mengjie Han, Qing Zhao, Xili Wang, Ying-Ping Wang, Philippe Ciais, Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Zhe Zhao, Zhixuan Guo, Chen Wang, Wei Zhuang, Fengchang Wu, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4871–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, 2024
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The impact of biochar (BC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is not represented in most land carbon models used for assessing land-based climate change mitigation. Our study develops a BC model that incorporates our current understanding of BC effects on SOC based on a soil carbon model (MIMICS). The BC model can reproduce the SOC changes after adding BC, providing a useful tool to couple dynamic land models to evaluate the effectiveness of BC application for CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4727–4754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, 2024
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The ORCHIDEE-MICT model can simulate the carbon cycle and hydrology at a sub-grid scale but energy budgets only at a grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found warmer surface and soil temperatures, higher soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared with the original version.
Gerrit Kuhlmann, Erik Koene, Sandro Meier, Diego Santaren, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Janne Hakkarainen, Janne Nurmela, Laia Amorós, Johanna Tamminen, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4773–4789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, 2024
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We present a Python software library for data-driven emission quantification (ddeq). It can be used to determine the emissions of hot spots (cities, power plants and industry) from remote sensing images using different methods. ddeq can be extended for new datasets and methods, providing a powerful community tool for users and developers. The application of the methods is shown using Jupyter notebooks included in the library.
Yitong Yao, Philippe Ciais, Emilie Joetzjer, Wei Li, Lei Zhu, Yujie Wang, Christian Frankenberg, and Nicolas Viovy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 763–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024, 2024
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Elevated CO2 concentration (eCO2) is critical for shaping the future path of forest carbon uptake, while uncertainties remain about concurrent carbon loss. Here, we found that eCO2 might amplify competition-induced carbon loss, while the extent of drought-induced carbon loss hinges on the balance between heightened biomass density and water-saving benefits. This is the first time that such carbon loss responses to ongoing climate change have been quantified separately over the Amazon rainforest.
Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yimian Ma, Yihan Hu, Cheng Gong, Hui Zheng, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4621–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024
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We develop the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE). The model considers the full coupling between carbon and water cycles, dynamic fire emissions, wetland methane emissions, biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, and trait-based ozone vegetation damage. Evaluations show that iMAPLE is a useful tool for the study of the interactions among climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Rebecca M. Varney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 21, 2759–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, 2024
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Soil carbon is the largest store of carbon on the land surface of Earth and is known to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Understanding this future response is vital to successfully meeting Paris Agreement targets, which rely heavily on carbon uptake by the land surface. In this study, the individual responses of soil carbon are quantified and compared amongst CMIP6 Earth system models used within the most recent IPCC report, and the role of soils in the land response is highlighted.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Nicolas Metzl, Claire Lo Monaco, Coraline Leseurre, Céline Ridame, Gilles Reverdin, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, and Marion Gehlen
Ocean Sci., 20, 725–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-725-2024, 2024
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In the southern Indian Ocean, south of the polar front, an observed increase of sea surface fCO2 and a decrease of pH over 1985–2021 are mainly driven by anthropogenic CO2 uptake, but in the last decade (2010–2020) fCO2 and pH were stable in summer, highlighting the competitive balance between anthropogenic CO2 and primary production. In the water column the increase of anthropogenic CO2 concentrations leads to migration of the aragonite saturation state from 600 m in 1985 up to 400 m in 2021.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
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This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Daju Wang, Peiyang Ren, Xiaosheng Xia, Lei Fan, Zhangcai Qin, Xiuzhi Chen, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2465–2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2465-2024, 2024
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This study generated a high-precision dataset, locating forest harvested carbon and quantifying post-harvest wood emissions for various uses. It enhances our understanding of forest harvesting and post-harvest carbon dynamics in China, providing essential data for estimating the forest ecosystem carbon budget and emphasizing wood utilization's impact on carbon emissions.
Mian Liu and Toste Tanhua
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1362, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Based on the distribution of water masses in the Atlantic Ocean, the water mass ages are shown by using CFC-12 and SF6. The ages increase with pressure and along the pathway. The central waters in the upper layer obtain the lowest ages. In all the other three deeper layers, the ages increase with the distance from formation area. The age is also used to calculate the oxygen utilization rate (OUR) in water masses. The western basin exhibits lower age with higher OUR due to the better ventilation.
Jenny Hieronymus, Magnus Hieronymus, Matthias Gröger, Jörg Schwinger, Raffaele Bernadello, Etienne Tourigny, Valentina Sicardi, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, and Klaus Wyser
Biogeosciences, 21, 2189–2206, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, 2024
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The timing of the net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic in the period 1750–2100 is investigated using two Earth system models and the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. It is found that, for most of the region, the annual maxima occur progressively earlier, with the most change occurring after the year 2000. Shifts in the seasonality of the primary production may impact the entire ecosystem, which highlights the need for long-term monitoring campaigns in this area.
Alban Planchat, Laurent Bopp, Lester Kwiatkowski, and Olivier Torres
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 565–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-565-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-565-2024, 2024
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Ocean acidification is likely to impact all stages of the ocean carbonate pump. We show divergent responses of CaCO3 export throughout this century in earth system models, with anomalies by 2100 ranging from −74 % to +23 % under a high-emission scenario. While we confirm the limited impact of carbonate pump anomalies on 21st century ocean carbon uptake and acidification, we highlight a potentially abrupt shift in CaCO3 dissolution from deep to subsurface waters beyond 2100.
Amanda R. Fay, David R. Munro, Galen A. McKinley, Denis Pierrot, Stewart C. Sutherland, Colm Sweeney, and Rik Wanninkhof
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2123–2139, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2123-2024, 2024
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Presented here is a near-global monthly climatological estimate of the difference between atmosphere and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. The ocean's ability to take up carbon, both now and in the future, is defined by this difference in concentrations. With over 30 million measurements of surface ocean carbon over the last 40 years and utilization of an extrapolation technique, a mean estimate of surface ocean ΔfCO2 is presented.
Thea H. Heimdal, Galen A. McKinley, Adrienne J. Sutton, Amanda R. Fay, and Lucas Gloege
Biogeosciences, 21, 2159–2176, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2159-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2159-2024, 2024
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Measurements of ocean carbon are limited in time and space. Machine learning algorithms are therefore used to reconstruct ocean carbon where observations do not exist. Improving these reconstructions is important in order to accurately estimate how much carbon the ocean absorbs from the atmosphere. In this study, we find that a small addition of observations from the Southern Ocean, obtained by autonomous sampling platforms, could significantly improve the reconstructions.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Siv K. Lauvset, Nico Lange, Toste Tanhua, Henry C. Bittig, Are Olsen, Alex Kozyr, Marta Álvarez, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Peter J. Brown, Brendan R. Carter, Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, Mario Hoppema, Matthew P. Humphreys, Masao Ishii, Emil Jeansson, Akihiko Murata, Jens Daniel Müller, Fiz F. Pérez, Carsten Schirnick, Reiner Steinfeldt, Toru Suzuki, Adam Ulfsbo, Anton Velo, Ryan J. Woosley, and Robert M. Key
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2047–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2047-2024, 2024
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GLODAP is a data product for ocean inorganic carbon and related biogeochemical variables measured by the chemical analysis of water bottle samples from scientific cruises. GLODAPv2.2023 is the fifth update of GLODAPv2 from 2016. The data that are included have been subjected to extensive quality controlling, including systematic evaluation of measurement biases. This version contains data from 1108 hydrographic cruises covering the world's oceans from 1972 to 2021.
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Beiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3259–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, 2024
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For the first time, we coupled a regional climate chemistry model, RegCM-Chem, with a dynamic vegetation model, YIBs, to create a regional climate–chemistry–ecology model, RegCM-Chem–YIBs. We applied it to simulate climatic, chemical, and ecological parameters in East Asia and fully validated it on a variety of observational data. Results show that RegCM-Chem–YIBs model is a valuable tool for studying the terrestrial carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change on a regional scale.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Biogeosciences, 21, 1923–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024, 2024
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We study the timescale dependence of airborne fraction and underlying feedbacks by a theory of the climate–carbon system. Using simulations we show the predictive power of this theory and find that (1) this fraction generally decreases for increasing timescales and (2) at all timescales the total feedback is negative and the model spread in a single feedback causes the spread in the airborne fraction. Our study indicates that those are properties of the system, independently of the scenario.
Nico Lange, Björn Fiedler, Marta Álvarez, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Heather Benway, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Laurent Coppola, Kim Currie, Susana Flecha, Dana S. Gerlach, Makio Honda, I. Emma Huertas, Siv K. Lauvset, Frank Muller-Karger, Arne Körtzinger, Kevin M. O'Brien, Sólveig R. Ólafsdóttir, Fernando C. Pacheco, Digna Rueda-Roa, Ingunn Skjelvan, Masahide Wakita, Angelicque White, and Toste Tanhua
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1901–1931, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1901-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1901-2024, 2024
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The Synthesis Product for Ocean Time Series (SPOTS) is a novel achievement expanding and complementing the biogeochemical data landscape by providing consistent and high-quality biogeochemical time-series data from 12 ship-based fixed time-series programs. SPOTS covers multiple unique marine environments and time-series ranges, including data from 1983 to 2021. All in all, it facilitates a variety of applications that benefit from the collective value of biogeochemical time-series observations.
Léna Gurriaran, Yannig Goude, Katsumasa Tanaka, Biqing Zhu, Zhu Deng, Xuanren Song, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2663–2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2663-2024, 2024
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We developed a data-driven model simulating daily regional power demand based on climate and socioeconomic variables. Our model was applied to eight countries or regions (Australia, Brazil, China, EU, India, Russia, South Africa, US), identifying influential factors and their relationship with power demand. Our findings highlight the significance of economic indicators in addition to temperature, showcasing country-specific variations. This research aids energy planning and emission reduction.
Hannah Chawner, Eric Saboya, Karina E. Adcock, Tim Arnold, Yuri Artioli, Caroline Dylag, Grant L. Forster, Anita Ganesan, Heather Graven, Gennadi Lessin, Peter Levy, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Alistair Manning, Penelope A. Pickers, Chris Rennick, Christian Rödenbeck, and Matthew Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4231–4252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4231-2024, 2024
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The quantity of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), derived from coincident measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and oxygen (O2), has been proposed as a tracer for fossil fuel CO2 emissions. In this model sensitivity study, we examine the use of APO for this purpose in the UK and compare our model to observations. We find that our model simulations are most sensitive to uncertainties relating to ocean fluxes and boundary conditions.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Simone R. Alin, Jan A. Newton, Richard A. Feely, Samantha Siedlecki, and Dana Greeley
Biogeosciences, 21, 1639–1673, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1639-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1639-2024, 2024
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We provide a new multi-stressor data product that allows us to characterize the seasonality of temperature, O2, and CO2 in the southern Salish Sea and delivers insights into the impacts of major marine heatwave and precipitation anomalies on regional ocean acidification and hypoxia. We also describe the present-day frequencies of temperature, O2, and ocean acidification conditions that cross thresholds of sensitive regional species that are economically or ecologically important.
Jiachen Cao, Xu Yue, and Mingrui Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3973–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, 2024
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We implemented two widely used ozone damage schemes into a same regional model. Although the two schemes yielded distinct ozone vegetation damages, they predicted similar feedbacks to surface air temperature and ozone air quality in China. Our results highlighted the significance of ozone pollution control given its detrimental impacts on ecosystem functions, contributions to global warming, and amplifications of ozone pollution through ozone–vegetation coupling.
Qing Ying, Benjamin Poulter, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Lori Bruhwiler, Youmi Oh, Brendan M. Rogers, Susan M. Natali, Hilary Sullivan, Luke D. Schiferl, Clayton Elder, Olli Peltola, Annett Bartsch, Amanda Armstrong, Ankur R. Desai, Eugénie Euskirchen, Mathias Göckede, Bernhard Lehner, Mats B. Nilsson, Matthias Peichl, Oliver Sonnentag, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Torsten Sachs, Aram Kalhori, Masahito Ueyama, and Zhen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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We present daily methane fluxes of northern wetlands at 10-km resolution during 2016–2022 (WetCH4) derived from a novel machine-learning framework with improved accuracy. We estimated an average annual CH4 emissions of 20.8 ±2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1. Emissions were intensified in 2016, 2020, and 2022, with the largest interannual variations coming from West Siberia. Continued, all-season tower observations and improved soil moisture products are needed for future improvement of CH4 upscaling.
Lingbo Li, Hong-Yi Li, Guta Abeshu, Jinyun Tang, L. Ruby Leung, Chang Liao, Zeli Tan, Hanqin Tian, Peter Thornton, and Xiaojuan Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-43, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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We have developed a new map that reveals how organic carbon from soil leaches into headwater streams over the contiguous United States. We use advanced artificial intelligence techniques and a massive amount of data, including observations at over 2,500 gauges and a wealth of climate and environmental information. The map is a critical step in understanding and predicting how carbon moves through our environment, hence a useful tool for tackling climate challenges.
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 307–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-307-2024, 2024
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Most solar radiation modification (SRM) simulations assume no physical coupling between mitigation and SRM. We analyze the impact of SRM on photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) and find that almost all regions have reduced PV and CSP potential compared to a mitigated or unmitigated scenario, especially in the middle and high latitudes. This suggests that SRM could pose challenges for meeting energy demands with solar renewable resources.
Margaret R. Marvin, Paul I. Palmer, Fei Yao, Mohd Talib Latif, and Md Firoz Khan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3699–3715, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3699-2024, 2024
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We use an atmospheric chemistry model to investigate aerosols emitted from fire activity across Southeast Asia. We find that the limited nature of measurements in this region leads to large uncertainties that significantly hinder the model representation of these aerosols and their impacts on air quality. As a result, the number of monthly attributable deaths is underestimated by as many as 4500, particularly in March at the peak of the mainland burning season.
Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2387–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024, 2024
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Climate scientists want to better understand modern climate change. Thus, climate model experiments are performed and compared. The results of climate model experiments differ, as assessed in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. This article gives insights into the challenges and outlines opportunities for further improving the understanding of climate change. It is based on views of a group of experts in atmospheric composition–climate interactions.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
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Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Melanie A. Thurner, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Anja Rammig, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 21, 1391–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1391-2024, 2024
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Due to their crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems, we implemented mycorrhizal fungi into the QUINCY terrestrial biosphere model. Fungi interact with mineral and organic soil to support plant N uptake and, thus, plant growth. Our results suggest that the effect of mycorrhizal interactions on simulated ecosystem dynamics is minor under constant environmental conditions but necessary to reproduce and understand observed patterns under changing conditions, such as rising atmospheric CO2.
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Zun Yin, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2141–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, 2024
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We show a new irrigation scheme included in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The new irrigation scheme restrains irrigation due to water shortage, includes water adduction, and represents environmental limits and facilities to access water, due to representing infrastructure in a simple way. Our results show that the new irrigation scheme helps simulate acceptable land surface conditions and fluxes in irrigated areas, even if there are difficulties due to shortcomings and limited information.
Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Tobias Steinhoff, Birgit Klein, Henry Bittig, and Arne Körtzinger
Biogeosciences, 21, 1191–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1191-2024, 2024
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The marine CO2 system can be measured independently and continuously by BGC-Argo floats since numerous pH sensors have been developed to suit these autonomous measurements platforms. By applying the Argo correction routines to float pH data acquired in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, we report the uncertainty and lack of objective criteria associated with the choice of the reference method as well the reference depth for the pH correction.
Michael Steiner, Wouter Peters, Ingrid Luijkx, Stephan Henne, Huilin Chen, Samuel Hammer, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2759–2782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2759-2024, 2024
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The Paris Agreement increased interest in estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of individual countries, but top-down emission estimation is not yet considered policy-relevant. It is therefore paramount to reduce large errors and to build systems that are based on the newest atmospheric transport models. In this study, we present the first application of ICON-ART in the inverse modeling of GHG fluxes with an ensemble Kalman filter and present our results for European CH4 emissions.
Nina Raoult, Louis-Axel Edouard-Rambaut, Nicolas Vuichard, Vladislav Bastrikov, Anne Sofie Lansø, Bertrand Guenet, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 21, 1017–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, 2024
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Observations are used to reduce uncertainty in land surface models (LSMs) by optimising poorly constraining parameters. However, optimising against current conditions does not necessarily ensure that the parameters treated as invariant will be robust in a changing climate. Manipulation experiments offer us a unique chance to optimise our models under different (here atmospheric CO2) conditions. By using these data in optimisations, we gain confidence in the future projections of LSMs.
Samuel Upton, Markus Reichstein, Fabian Gans, Wouter Peters, Basil Kraft, and Ana Bastos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2555–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, 2024
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Data-driven eddy-covariance upscaled estimates of the global land–atmosphere net CO2 exchange (NEE) show important mismatches with regional and global estimates based on atmospheric information. To address this, we create a model with a dual constraint based on bottom-up eddy-covariance data and top-down atmospheric inversion data. Our model overcomes shortcomings of each approach, producing improved NEE estimates from local to global scale, helping to reduce uncertainty in the carbon budget.
Martin Butzin, Ying Ye, Christoph Völker, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, and Peter Köhler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024, 2024
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In this paper we describe the implementation of the carbon isotopes 13C and 14C into the marine biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3 and present results of long-term test simulations. Our model results are largely consistent with marine carbon isotope reconstructions for the pre-anthropogenic period, but also exhibit some discrepancies.
Astrid Müller, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Takafumi Sugita, Prabir K. Patra, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Toshinobu Machida, Isamu Morino, André Butz, and Kei Shiomi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1297–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1297-2024, 2024
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Satellite CH4 observations with high accuracy are needed to understand changes in atmospheric CH4 concentrations. But over oceans, reference data are limited. We combine various ship and aircraft observations with the help of atmospheric chemistry models to derive observation-based column-averaged mixing ratios of CH4 (obs. XCH4). We discuss three different approaches and demonstrate the applicability of the new reference dataset for carbon cycle studies and satellite evaluation.
Pramod Kumar, Christopher Caldow, Grégoire Broquet, Adil Shah, Olivier Laurent, Camille Yver-Kwok, Sebastien Ars, Sara Defratyka, Susan Warao Gichuki, Luc Lienhardt, Mathis Lozano, Jean-Daniel Paris, Felix Vogel, Caroline Bouchet, Elisa Allegrini, Robert Kelly, Catherine Juery, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1229–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1229-2024, 2024
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This study presents a series of mobile measurement campaigns to monitor the CH4 emissions from an active landfill. These measurements are processed using a Gaussian plume model and atmospheric inversion techniques to quantify the landfill CH4 emissions. The methane emission estimates range between ~0.4 and ~7 t CH4 per day, and their variations are analyzed. The robustness of the estimates is assessed depending on the distance of the measurements from the potential sources in the landfill.
Douglas McNeall, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1059–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1059-2024, 2024
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We can run simulations of the land surface and carbon cycle, using computer models to help us understand and predict climate change and its impacts. These simulations are not perfect reproductions of the real land surface, and that can make them less effective tools. We use new statistical and computational techniques to help us understand how different our models are from the real land surface, how to make them more realistic, and how well we can simulate past and future climate.
Simone R. Alin, Jan A. Newton, Richard A. Feely, Dana Greeley, Beth Curry, Julian Herndon, and Mark Warner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 837–865, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-837-2024, 2024
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The Salish cruise data product provides 2008–2018 oceanographic data from the southern Salish Sea and nearby coastal sampling stations. Temperature, salinity, oxygen, nutrient, and dissolved inorganic carbon measurements from 715 oceanographic profiles will facilitate further study of ocean acidification, hypoxia, and marine heatwave impacts in this region. Three subsets of the compiled datasets from 35 cruises are available with consistent formatting and multiple commonly used units.
Henry C. Bittig, Erik Jacobs, Thomas Neumann, and Gregor Rehder
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 753–773, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-753-2024, 2024
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We present a pCO2 climatology of the Baltic Sea using a new approach to extrapolate from individual observations to the entire Baltic Sea. The extrapolation approach uses (a) a model to inform on how data at one location are connected to data at other locations, together with (b) very accurate pCO2 observations from 2003 to 2021 as the base data. The climatology can be used e.g. to assess uptake and release of CO2 or to identify extreme events.
Bertrand Guenet, Jérémie Orliac, Lauric Cécillon, Olivier Torres, Laura Sereni, Philip A. Martin, Pierre Barré, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 21, 657–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, 2024
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Heterotrophic respiration fluxes are a major flux between surfaces and the atmosphere, but Earth system models do not yet represent them correctly. Here we benchmarked Earth system models against observation-based products, and we identified the important mechanisms that need to be improved in the next-generation Earth system models.
Zhendong Wu, Alex Vermeulen, Yousuke Sawa, Ute Karstens, Wouter Peters, Remco de Kok, Xin Lan, Yasuyuki Nagai, Akinori Ogi, and Oksana Tarasova
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1249–1264, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1249-2024, 2024
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This study focuses on exploring the differences in calculating global surface CO2 and its growth rate, considering the impact of analysis methodologies and site selection. Our study reveals that the current global CO2 network has a good capacity to represent global surface CO2 and its growth rate, as well as trends in atmospheric CO2 mass changes. However, small differences exist in different analyses due to the impact of methodology and site selection.
Yang Yang, Yang Zhou, Hailong Wang, Mengyun Li, Huimin Li, Pinya Wang, Xu Yue, Ke Li, Jia Zhu, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1177–1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1177-2024, 2024
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This study reveals that extreme ozone pollution over the North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta is due to the chemical production related to hot and dry conditions, and the regional transport explains the ozone pollution over the Sichuan Basin and Pearl River Delta. The frequency of meteorological conditions of the extreme ozone pollution increases from the past to the future. The sustainable scenario is the optimal path to retaining clean air in China in the future.
Natalie M. Monacci, Jessica N. Cross, Wiley Evans, Jeremy T. Mathis, and Hongjie Wang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 647–665, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-647-2024, 2024
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As carbon dioxide is released into the air through human-generated activity, about one third dissolves into the surface water of oceans, lowering pH and increasing acidity. This is known as ocean acidification. We merged 10 years of ocean carbon data and made them publicly available for adaptation planning during a time of change. The data confirmed that Alaska is already experiencing the effects of ocean acidification due to naturally cold water, high productivity, and circulation patterns.
Wolfgang Alexander Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Ana Bastos, Giulia Conchedda, Thomas Gasser, Giacomo Grassi, Richard A. Houghton, Francesco Nicola Tubiello, Stephen Sitch, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 605–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, 2024
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We provide and compare country-level estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes from a variety and large number of models, bottom-up estimates, and country reports for the period 1950–2021. Although net fluxes are small in many countries, they are often composed of large compensating emissions and removals. In many countries, the estimates agree well once their individual characteristics are accounted for, but in other countries, including some of the largest emitters, substantial uncertainties exist.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
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Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Alizée Roobaert, Pierre Regnier, Peter Landschützer, and Goulven G. Laruelle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 421–441, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-421-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-421-2024, 2024
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The quantification of the coastal air–sea CO2 exchange (FCO2) has improved in recent years, but its multiannual variability remains unclear. This study, based on interpolated observations, reconstructs the longest global time series of coastal FCO2 (1982–2020). Results show the coastal ocean acts as a CO2 sink, with increasing intensity over time. This new coastal FCO2-product allows establishing regional carbon budgets and provides new constraints for closing the global carbon cycle.
Tsuneo Ono, Daisuke Muraoka, Masahiro Hayashi, Makiko Yorifuji, Akihiro Dazai, Shigeyuki Omoto, Takehiro Tanaka, Tomohiro Okamura, Goh Onitsuka, Kenji Sudo, Masahiko Fujii, Ryuji Hamanoue, and Masahide Wakita
Biogeosciences, 21, 177–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-177-2024, 2024
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We carried out parallel year-round observations of pH and related parameters in five stations around the Japan coast. It was found that short-term acidified situations with Omega_ar less than 1.5 occurred at four of five stations. Most of such short-term acidified events were related to the short-term low salinity event, and the extent of short-term pH drawdown at high freshwater input was positively correlated with the nutrient concentration of the main rivers that flow into the coastal area.
Mounia Mostefaoui, Philippe Ciais, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Prabir K. Patra, and Yolandi Ernst
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 245–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-245-2024, 2024
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Our aim is to assess African anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals by using different data products, including inventories and process-based models, and to compare their relative merits with inversion data coming from satellites. We show a good match among the various estimates in terms of overall trends at a regional level and on a decadal basis, but large differences exist even among similar data types, which is a limit to the possibility of verification of country-reported data.
Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Marion Gehlen, Nicolas Metzl, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 121–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-121-2024, 2024
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CMEMS-LSCE leads as the first global observation-based reconstructions of six carbonate system variables for the years 1985–2021 at monthly and 0.25° resolutions. The high-resolution reconstructions outperform their 1° counterpart in reproducing horizontal and temporal gradients of observations over various oceanic regions to nearshore time series stations. New datasets can be exploited in numerous studies, including monitoring changes in ocean carbon uptake and ocean acidification.
Christian Rödenbeck, Karina E. Adcock, Markus Eritt, Maksym Gachkivskyi, Christoph Gerbig, Samuel Hammer, Armin Jordan, Ralph F. Keeling, Ingeborg Levin, Fabian Maier, Andrew C. Manning, Heiko Moossen, Saqr Munassar, Penelope A. Pickers, Michael Rothe, Yasunori Tohjima, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15767–15782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, 2023
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The carbon dioxide content of the Earth atmosphere is increasing due to human emissions from burning of fossil fuels, causing global climate change. The strength of the fossil-fuel emissions is estimated by inventories based on energy data, but independent validation of these inventories has been recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we investigate the potential to validate inventories based on measurements of small changes in the atmospheric oxygen content.
Flora Desmet, Matthias Münnich, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 20, 5151–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, 2023
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Ocean acidity extremes in the upper 250 m depth of the northeastern Pacific rapidly increase with atmospheric CO2 rise, which is worrisome for marine organisms that rapidly experience pH levels outside their local environmental conditions. Presented research shows the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this increase between regions and depths. In particular, the subsurface increase is substantially slowed down by the presence of mesoscale eddies, often not resolved in Earth system models.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
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Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Sam S. Rabin, William J. Sacks, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Lili Xia, and Alan Robock
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7253–7273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7253-2023, 2023
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Climate models can help us simulate how the agricultural system will be affected by and respond to environmental change, but to be trustworthy they must realistically reproduce historical patterns. When farmers plant their crops and what varieties they choose will be important aspects of future adaptation. Here, we improve the crop component of a global model to better simulate observed growing seasons and examine the impacts on simulated crop yields and irrigation demand.
Alizée Dale, Marion Gehlen, Douglas W. R. Wallace, Germain Bénard, Christian Éthé, and Elena Alekseenko
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2538, 2023
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Diatom, which is at the base of a productive food chain that supports valuable fisheries, dominates the total primary production of the Labrador Sea (LS). The synthesis of biogenic silica frustules makes them peculiar among phytoplankton but also dependent on dissolved silicate (DSi). Regular oceanographic surveys show declining DSi concentrations since the mid-1990s. With a model-based approach, we show that weakening deep winter convection was the proximate cause of DSi decline in the LS.
Jan De Pue, Sebastian Wieneke, Ana Bastos, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Maral Maleki, Fabienne Maignan, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Ivan Janssens, and Manuela Balzarolo
Biogeosciences, 20, 4795–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, 2023
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The gross primary production (GPP) of the terrestrial biosphere is a key source of variability in the global carbon cycle. To estimate this flux, models can rely on remote sensing data (RS-driven), meteorological data (meteo-driven) or a combination of both (hybrid). An intercomparison of 11 models demonstrated that RS-driven models lack the sensitivity to short-term anomalies. Conversely, the simulation of soil moisture dynamics and stress response remains a challenge in meteo-driven models.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Andrew C. Ross, Charles A. Stock, Alistair Adcroft, Enrique Curchitser, Robert Hallberg, Matthew J. Harrison, Katherine Hedstrom, Niki Zadeh, Michael Alexander, Wenhao Chen, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Hubert du Pontavice, Raphael Dussin, Fabian Gomez, Jasmin G. John, Dujuan Kang, Diane Lavoie, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Vincent Saba, Sang-Ik Shin, Samantha Siedlecki, and James Simkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6943–6985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6943-2023, 2023
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We evaluate a model for northwest Atlantic Ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry that balances high resolution with computational economy by building on the new regional features in the MOM6 ocean model and COBALT biogeochemical model. We test the model's ability to simulate impactful historical variability and find that the model simulates the mean state and variability of most features well, which suggests the model can provide information to inform living-marine-resource applications.
Sam Ditkovsky, Laure Resplandy, and Julius Busecke
Biogeosciences, 20, 4711–4736, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4711-2023, 2023
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The global ocean is losing oxygen due to warming. The Indian Ocean, however, is gaining oxygen in large parts of the basin, and its naturally occurring oxygen minimum zone is not expanding. This rather unexpected response is explained by the unique ocean circulation of the Indian Ocean, which is bounded by a continent to the north but connected to the Pacific Ocean by the Indonesian Throughflow.
Yang Chen, Joanne Hall, Dave van Wees, Niels Andela, Stijn Hantson, Louis Giglio, Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas C. Morton, and James T. Randerson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5227–5259, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5227-2023, 2023
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Using multiple sets of remotely sensed data, we created a dataset of monthly global burned area from 1997 to 2020. The estimated annual global burned area is 774 million hectares, significantly higher than previous estimates. Burned area declined by 1.21% per year due to extensive fire loss in savanna, grassland, and cropland ecosystems. This study enhances our understanding of the impact of fire on the carbon cycle and climate system, and may improve the predictions of future fire changes.
Chenwei Xiao, Sönke Zaehle, Hui Yang, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Christiane Schmullius, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1211–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023, 2023
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Ecosystem resistance reflects their susceptibility during adverse conditions and can be changed by land management. We estimate ecosystem resistance to drought and temperature globally. We find a higher resistance to drought in forests compared to croplands and an evident loss of resistance to drought when primary forests are converted to secondary forests or they are harvested. Old-growth trees tend to be more resistant in some forests and crops benefit from irrigation during drought periods.
David T. Ho, Laurent Bopp, Jaime B. Palter, Matthew C. Long, Philip W. Boyd, Griet Neukermans, and Lennart T. Bach
State Planet, 2-oae2023, 12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-12-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-12-2023, 2023
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Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) refers to the multistep process to quantify the amount of carbon dioxide removed by a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activity. Here, we make recommendations for MRV for Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) research, arguing that it has an obligation for comprehensiveness, reproducibility, and transparency, as it may become the foundation for assessing large-scale deployment. Both observations and numerical simulations will be needed for MRV.
Masahiko Fujii, Ryuji Hamanoue, Lawrence Patrick Cases Bernardo, Tsuneo Ono, Akihiro Dazai, Shigeyuki Oomoto, Masahide Wakita, and Takehiro Tanaka
Biogeosciences, 20, 4527–4549, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4527-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4527-2023, 2023
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This is the first study of the current and future impacts of climate change on Pacific oyster farming in Japan. Future coastal warming and acidification may affect oyster larvae as a result of longer exposure to lower-pH waters. A prolonged spawning period may harm oyster processing by shortening the shipping period and reducing oyster quality. To minimize impacts on Pacific oyster farming, in addition to mitigation measures, local adaptation measures may be required.
Michael Sigmond, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, Ruth Digby, Nathan Gillett, Viatcheslav Kharin, William Merryfield, Catherine Reader, John Scinocca, Neil Swart, John Virgin, Carsten Abraham, Jason Cole, Nicolas Lambert, Woo-Sung Lee, Yongxiao Liang, Elizaveta Malinina, Landon Rieger, Knut von Salzen, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Libo Wang, and Duo Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6553–6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023, 2023
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We present a new activity which aims to organize the analysis of biases in the Canadian Earth System model (CanESM) in a systematic manner. Results of this “Analysis for Development” (A4D) activity includes a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features substantial improvements regarding the simulation of dust and stratospheric temperatures, a second CanESM5.1 variant with reduced climate sensitivity, and insights into potential avenues to reduce various other model biases.
Zi Huang, Jiaoyue Wang, Longfei Bing, Yijiao Qiu, Rui Guo, Ying Yu, Mingjing Ma, Le Niu, Dan Tong, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep G. Canadell, Fengming Xi, and Zhu Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4947–4958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4947-2023, 2023
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This is about global and regional cement process carbon emissions and CO2 uptake calculations from 1930 to 2019. The global cement production is rising to 4.4 Gt, causing processing carbon emission of 1.81 Gt (95% CI: 1.75–1.88 Gt CO2) in 2021. Plus, in 2021, cement’s carbon accumulated uptake (22.9 Gt, 95% CI: 19.6–22.6 Gt CO2) has offset 55.2% of cement process CO2 emissions (41.5 Gt, 95% CI: 38.7–47.1 Gt CO2) since 1930.
Ioannis Cheliotis, Thomas Lauvaux, Jinghui Lian, Theodoros Christoudias, George Georgiou, Alba Badia, Frédéric Chevallier, Pramod Kumar, Yathin Kudupaje, Ruixue Lei, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2487, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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A consistent estimation of CO2 emissions is complicated due to the scarcity of CO2 observations. In this study, we showcase the potential to improve the CO2 emissions estimations from the NO2 concentrations based on the NO2-to-CO2 ratio, which should be constant for a source co-emitting NO2 and CO2, by comparing satellite observations with atmospheric chemistry and transport model simulations for NO2 and CO2. Furthermore, we demonstrate the significance of the chemistry in NO2 simulations.
Martin Schwartz, Philippe Ciais, Aurélien De Truchis, Jérôme Chave, Catherine Ottlé, Cedric Vega, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Manuel Nicolas, Sami Jouaber, Siyu Liu, Martin Brandt, and Ibrahim Fayad
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4927–4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, 2023
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As forests play a key role in climate-related issues, their accurate monitoring is critical to reduce global carbon emissions effectively. Based on open-access remote-sensing sensors, and artificial intelligence methods, we created high-resolution tree height, wood volume, and biomass maps of metropolitan France that outperform previous products. This study, based on freely available data, provides essential information to support climate-efficient forest management policies at a low cost.
Zoé Lloret, Frédéric Chevallier, Anne Cozic, Marine Remaud, and Yann Meurdesoif
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-140, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this study, we evaluate the performance of a new model coupling, ICO, for simulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) transport. Using an unstructured grid, our model accurately captures seasonal CO2 variations at surface stations. The model exhibits comparable accuracy to a reference configuration and offers advantages in computational speed and storage. This highlights the importance of advanced modeling approaches and high-resolution grids in refining climate models.
Dien Wu, Joshua L. Laughner, Junjie Liu, Paul I. Palmer, John C. Lin, and Paul O. Wennberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6161–6185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6161-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6161-2023, 2023
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To balance computational expenses and chemical complexity in extracting emission signals from tropospheric NO2 columns, we propose a simplified non-linear Lagrangian chemistry transport model and assess its performance against TROPOMI v2 over power plants and cities. Using this model, we then discuss how NOx chemistry affects the relationship between NOx and CO2 emissions and how studying NO2 columns helps quantify modeled biases in wind directions and prior emissions.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Jonilda Kushta, Theodoros Christoudias, I. Safak Bayram, and Jean Sciare
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13565–13583, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13565-2023, 2023
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We use four years (2019–2022) of TROPOMI NO2 data to map NOx emissions in Qatar. We estimate average monthly emissions for the country and industrial facilities and derive an emission factor for the power sector. Monthly emissions have a weekly cycle reflecting the social norms in Qatar and an annual cycle consistent with the electricity production by gas-fired power plants. Their mean value is lower than the NOx emissions in global inventories but similar to the emissions reported for 2007.
Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, Negin Sobhani, Gordon B. Bonan, David Durden, Dawn Lenz, Michael SanClements, Samantha Weintraub-Leff, Edward Ayres, Christopher R. Florian, Kyla Dahlin, Sanjiv Kumar, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claire M. Zarakas, Charles Vardeman, and Valerio Pascucci
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5979–6000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5979-2023, 2023
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We present a novel cyberinfrastructure system that uses National Ecological Observatory Network measurements to run Community Terrestrial System Model point simulations in a containerized system. The simple interface and tutorials expand access to data and models used in Earth system research by removing technical barriers and facilitating research, educational opportunities, and community engagement. The NCAR–NEON system enables convergence of climate and ecological sciences.
Roland Vernooij, Tom Eames, Jeremy Russell-Smith, Cameron Yates, Robin Beatty, Jay Evans, Andrew Edwards, Natasha Ribeiro, Martin Wooster, Tercia Strydom, Marcos Vinicius Giongo, Marco Assis Borges, Máximo Menezes Costa, Ana Carolina Sena Barradas, Dave van Wees, and Guido R. Van der Werf
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1039–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1039-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1039-2023, 2023
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Savannas account for over half of global landscape fire emissions. Although environmental and fuel conditions affect the ratio of species the fire emits, these dynamics have not been implemented in global models. We measured CO2, CO, CH4, and N2O emission factors (EFs), fuel parameters, and fire severity proxies during 129 individual fires. We identified EF patterns and trained models to estimate EFs of these species based on satellite observations, reducing the estimation error by 60–85 %.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for BG
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For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
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Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Patrick J. Duke, Roberta C. Hamme, Debby Ianson, Peter Landschützer, Mohamed M. M. Ahmed, Neil C. Swart, and Paul A. Covert
Biogeosciences, 20, 3919–3941, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3919-2023, 2023
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The ocean is both impacted by climate change and helps mitigate its effects through taking up carbon from the atmosphere. We used a machine learning approach to investigate what controls open-ocean carbon uptake in the northeast Pacific open ocean. Marine heatwaves that lasted 2–3 years increased uptake, while the upwelling strength of the Alaskan Gyre controlled uptake over 10-year time periods. The trend from 1998–2019 suggests carbon uptake in the northeast Pacific open ocean is increasing.
Jason Neil Steven Cole, Knut von Salzen, Jiangnan Li, John Scinocca, David Plummer, Vivek Arora, Norman McFarlane, Michael Lazare, Murray MacKay, and Diana Verseghy
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5427–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5427-2023, 2023
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The Canadian Atmospheric Model version 5 (CanAM5) is used to simulate on a global scale the climate of Earth's atmosphere, land, and lakes. We document changes to the physics in CanAM5 since the last major version of the model (CanAM4) and evaluate the climate simulated relative to observations and CanAM4. The climate simulated by CanAM5 is similar to CanAM4, but there are improvements, including better simulation of temperature and precipitation over the Amazon and better simulation of cloud.
Lilian Vallet, Martin Schwartz, Philippe Ciais, Dave van Wees, Aurelien de Truchis, and Florent Mouillot
Biogeosciences, 20, 3803–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3803-2023, 2023
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This study analyzes the ecological impact of the 2022 summer fire season in France by using high-resolution satellite data. The total biomass loss was 2.553 Mt, equivalent to a 17 % increase of the average natural mortality of all French forests. While Mediterranean forests had a lower biomass loss, there was a drastic increase in burned area and biomass loss over the Atlantic pine forests and temperate forests. This result revisits the distinctiveness of the 2022 fire season.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
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This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Luana S. Basso, Chris Wilson, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Graciela Tejada, Henrique L. G. Cassol, Egídio Arai, Mathew Williams, T. Luke Smallman, Wouter Peters, Stijn Naus, John B. Miller, and Manuel Gloor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9685–9723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9685-2023, 2023
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The Amazon’s carbon balance may have changed due to forest degradation, deforestation and warmer climate. We used an atmospheric model and atmospheric CO2 observations to quantify Amazonian carbon emissions (2010–2018). The region was a small carbon source to the atmosphere, mostly due to fire emissions. Forest uptake compensated for ~ 50 % of the fire emissions, meaning that the remaining forest is still a small carbon sink. We found no clear evidence of weakening carbon uptake over the period.
Özgür Gürses, Laurent Oziel, Onur Karakuş, Dmitry Sidorenko, Christoph Völker, Ying Ye, Moritz Zeising, Martin Butzin, and Judith Hauck
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4883–4936, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, 2023
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This paper assesses the biogeochemical model REcoM3 coupled to the ocean–sea ice model FESOM2.1. The model can be used to simulate the carbon uptake or release of the ocean on timescales of several hundred years. A detailed analysis of the nutrients, ocean productivity, and ecosystem is followed by the carbon cycle. The main conclusion is that the model performs well when simulating the observed mean biogeochemical state and variability and is comparable to other ocean–biogeochemical models.
István Dunkl, Nicole Lovenduski, Alessio Collalti, Vivek K. Arora, Tatiana Ilyina, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 3523–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, 2023
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Despite differences in the reproduction of gross primary productivity (GPP) by Earth system models (ESMs), ESMs have similar predictability of the global carbon cycle. We found that, although GPP variability originates from different regions and is driven by different climatic variables across the ESMs, the ESMs rely on the same mechanisms to predict their own GPP. This shows that the predictability of the carbon cycle is limited by our understanding of variability rather than predictability.
Christopher D. Wells, Lawrence S. Jackson, Amanda C. Maycock, and Piers M. Forster
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 817–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023, 2023
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There are many possibilities for future emissions, with different impacts in different places. Complex models can study these impacts but take a long time to run, even on powerful computers. Simple methods can be used to reduce this time by estimating the complex model output, but these are not perfect. This study looks at the accuracy of one of these techniques, showing that there are limitations to its use, especially for low-emission future scenarios.
Zhibo Shao, Yangchun Xu, Hua Wang, Weicheng Luo, Lice Wang, Yuhong Huang, Nona Sheila R. Agawin, Ayaz Ahmed, Mar Benavides, Mikkel Bentzon-Tilia, Ilana Berman-Frank, Hugo Berthelot, Isabelle C. Biegala, Mariana B. Bif, Antonio Bode, Sophie Bonnet, Deborah A. Bronk, Mark V. Brown, Lisa Campbell, Douglas G. Capone, Edward J. Carpenter, Nicolas Cassar, Bonnie X. Chang, Dreux Chappell, Yuh-ling Lee Chen, Matthew J. Church, Francisco M. Cornejo-Castillo, Amália Maria Sacilotto Detoni, Scott C. Doney, Cecile Dupouy, Marta Estrada, Camila Fernandez, Bieito Fernández-Castro, Debany Fonseca-Batista, Rachel A. Foster, Ken Furuya, Nicole Garcia, Kanji Goto, Jesús Gago, Mary R. Gradoville, M. Robert Hamersley, Britt A. Henke, Cora Hörstmann, Amal Jayakumar, Zhibing Jiang, Shuh-Ji Kao, David M. Karl, Leila R. Kittu, Angela N. Knapp, Sanjeev Kumar, Julie LaRoche, Hongbin Liu, Jiaxing Liu, Caroline Lory, Carolin R. Löscher, Emilio Marañón, Lauren F. Messer, Matthew M. Mills, Wiebke Mohr, Pia H. Moisander, Claire Mahaffey, Robert Moore, Beatriz Mouriño-Carballido, Margaret R. Mulholland, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Joseph A. Needoba, Eric J. Raes, Eyal Rahav, Teodoro Ramírez-Cárdenas, Christian Furbo Reeder, Lasse Riemann, Virginie Riou, Julie C. Robidart, Vedula V. S. S. Sarma, Takuya Sato, Himanshu Saxena, Corday Selden, Justin R. Seymour, Dalin Shi, Takuhei Shiozaki, Arvind Singh, Rachel E. Sipler, Jun Sun, Koji Suzuki, Kazutaka Takahashi, Yehui Tan, Weiyi Tang, Jean-Éric Tremblay, Kendra Turk-Kubo, Zuozhu Wen, Angelicque E. White, Samuel T. Wilson, Takashi Yoshida, Jonathan P. Zehr, Run Zhang, Yao Zhang, and Ya-Wei Luo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3673–3709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3673-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3673-2023, 2023
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N2 fixation by marine diazotrophs is an important bioavailable N source to the global ocean. This updated global oceanic diazotroph database increases the number of in situ measurements of N2 fixation rates, diazotrophic cell abundances, and nifH gene copy abundances by 184 %, 86 %, and 809 %, respectively. Using the updated database, the global marine N2 fixation rate is estimated at 223 ± 30 Tg N yr−1, which triplicates that using the original database.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Almut Arneth, Stefanie Falk, Atul K. Jain, Fortunat Joos, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Naiqing Pan, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 767–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, 2023
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Nitrogen (N) is an essential limiting nutrient to terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. We evaluate N cycling in an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models. We find that variability in N processes across models is large. Models tended to overestimate C storage per unit N in vegetation and soil, which could have consequences for projecting the future terrestrial C sink. However, N cycling measurements are highly uncertain, and more are necessary to guide the development of N cycling in models.
Jinghui Lian, Thomas Lauvaux, Hervé Utard, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Laurent, Ivonne Albarus, Mali Chariot, Simone Kotthaus, Martial Haeffelin, Olivier Sanchez, Olivier Perrussel, Hugo Anne Denier van der Gon, Stijn Nicolaas Camiel Dellaert, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8823–8835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, 2023
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This study quantifies urban CO2 emissions via an atmospheric inversion for the Paris metropolitan area over a 6-year period from 2016 to 2021. Results show a long-term decreasing trend of about 2 % ± 0.6 % per year in the annual CO2 emissions over Paris. We conclude that our current capacity can deliver near-real-time CO2 emission estimates at the city scale in under a month, and the results agree within 10 % with independent estimates from multiple city-scale inventories.
Alice Drinkwater, Paul I. Palmer, Liang Feng, Tim Arnold, Xin Lan, Sylvia E. Michel, Robert Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8429–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8429-2023, 2023
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Changes in atmospheric methane over the last few decades are largely unexplained. Previous studies have proposed different hypotheses to explain short-term changes in atmospheric methane. We interpret observed changes in atmospheric methane and stable isotope source signatures (2004–2020). We argue that changes over this period are part of a large-scale shift from high-northern-latitude thermogenic energy emissions to tropical biogenic emissions, particularly from North Africa and South America.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4249–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, 2023
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This paper describes and evaluates a new modelling methodology to quantify the impacts of climate change on water, biomes and the carbon cycle. We have created a new configuration and set-up for the JULES-ES land surface model, driven by bias-corrected historical and future climate model output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). This allows us to compare projections of the impacts of climate change across multiple impact models and multiple sectors.
Ruoque Shen, Baihong Pan, Qiongyan Peng, Jie Dong, Xuebing Chen, Xi Zhang, Tao Ye, Jianxi Huang, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3203–3222, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3203-2023, 2023
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Paddy rice is the second-largest grain crop in China and plays an important role in ensuring global food security. This study developed a new rice-mapping method and produced distribution maps of single-season rice in 21 provincial administrative regions of China from 2017 to 2022 at a 10 or 20 m resolution. The accuracy was examined using 108 195 survey samples and county-level statistical data, and we found that the distribution maps have good accuracy.
Marc Guevara, Hervé Petetin, Oriol Jorba, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jeroen Kuenen, Ingrid Super, Claire Granier, Thierno Doumbia, Philippe Ciais, Zhu Liu, Robin D. Lamboll, Sabine Schindlbacher, Bradley Matthews, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8081–8101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8081-2023, 2023
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This study provides an intercomparison of European 2020 emission changes derived from official inventories, which are reported by countries under the framework of several international conventions and directives, and non-official near-real-time estimates, the use of which has significantly grown since the COVID-19 outbreak. The results of the work are used to produce recommendations on how best to approach and make use of near-real-time emissions for modelling and monitoring applications.
Yuan Zhao, Xu Yue, Yang Cao, Jun Zhu, Chenguang Tian, Hao Zhou, Yuwen Chen, Yihan Hu, Weijie Fu, and Xu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7823–7838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023, 2023
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We project the future changes of dust emissions and loading using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 under four scenarios. We find increased dust emissions and loading in North Africa, due to increased drought and strengthened surface wind, and decreased dust loading over Asia, following enhanced precipitation. Such a spatial pattern remains similar, though the regional intensity varies among different scenarios.
Adil Shah, Olivier Laurent, Luc Lienhardt, Grégoire Broquet, Rodrigo Rivera Martinez, Elisa Allegrini, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3391–3419, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3391-2023, 2023
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As methane (CH4) contributes to global warming, more CH4 measurements are required to better characterise source emissions. Hence, we tested a cheap CH4 sensor for 338 d of landfill sampling. We derived an excellent CH4 response model in a stable environment. However, different types of air with the same CH4 level had diverse sensor responses. We characterised temperature and water vapour response but could not replicate field sampling. Thus, other species may cause sensor interactions.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Julia Marshall, Wouter Peters, Pieter Tans, and Markus Reichstein
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3299–3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3299-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3299-2023, 2023
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The timing and duration of the carbon uptake period (CUP) are sensitive to the occurrence of major phenological events, which are influenced by recent climate change. This study presents an ensemble-based approach for quantifying the timing and duration of the CUP and their uncertainty when derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements with noise and gaps. The CUP metrics derived with the approach are more robust and have less uncertainty than when estimated with the conventional methods.
Xueqin Yang, Xiuzhi Chen, Jiashun Ren, Wenping Yuan, Liyang Liu, Juxiu Liu, Dexiang Chen, Yihua Xiao, Qinghai Song, Yanjun Du, Shengbiao Wu, Lei Fan, Xiaoai Dai, Yunpeng Wang, and Yongxian Su
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2601–2622, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2601-2023, 2023
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We developed the first time-mapped, continental-scale gridded dataset of monthly leaf area index (LAI) in three leaf age cohorts (i.e., young, mature, and old) from 2001–2018 data (referred to as Lad-LAI). The seasonality of three LAI cohorts from the new Lad-LAI product agrees well at eight sites with very fine-scale collections of monthly LAI. The proposed satellite-based approaches can provide references for mapping finer spatiotemporal-resolution LAI products with different leaf age cohorts.
Thomas E. Taylor, Christopher W. O'Dell, David Baker, Carol Bruegge, Albert Chang, Lars Chapsky, Abhishek Chatterjee, Cecilia Cheng, Frédéric Chevallier, David Crisp, Lan Dang, Brian Drouin, Annmarie Eldering, Liang Feng, Brendan Fisher, Dejian Fu, Michael Gunson, Vance Haemmerle, Graziela R. Keller, Matthäus Kiel, Le Kuai, Thomas Kurosu, Alyn Lambert, Joshua Laughner, Richard Lee, Junjie Liu, Lucas Mandrake, Yuliya Marchetti, Gregory McGarragh, Aronne Merrelli, Robert R. Nelson, Greg Osterman, Fabiano Oyafuso, Paul I. Palmer, Vivienne H. Payne, Robert Rosenberg, Peter Somkuti, Gary Spiers, Cathy To, Brad Weir, Paul O. Wennberg, Shanshan Yu, and Jia Zong
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3173–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3173-2023, 2023
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NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 and 3 (OCO-2 and OCO-3, respectively) provide complementary spatiotemporal coverage from a sun-synchronous and precession orbit, respectively. Estimates of total column carbon dioxide (XCO2) derived from the two sensors using the same retrieval algorithm show broad consistency over a 2.5-year overlapping time record. This suggests that data from the two satellites may be used together for scientific analysis.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
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In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Libo Wang, Vivek K. Arora, Paul Bartlett, Ed Chan, and Salvatore R. Curasi
Biogeosciences, 20, 2265–2282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2265-2023, 2023
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Plant functional types (PFTs) are groups of plant species used to represent vegetation distribution in land surface models. There are large uncertainties associated with existing methods for mapping land cover datasets to PFTs. This study demonstrates how fine-resolution tree cover fraction and land cover datasets can be used to inform the PFT mapping process and reduce the uncertainties. The proposed largely objective method makes it easier to implement new land cover products in models.
Xiaojuan Lin, Ronald van der A, Jos de Laat, Henk Eskes, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Zhu Deng, Yuanhao Geng, Xuanren Song, Xiliang Ni, Da Huo, Xinyu Dou, and Zhu Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6599–6611, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6599-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6599-2023, 2023
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Satellite observations provide evidence for CO2 emission signals from isolated power plants. We use these satellite observations to quantify emissions. We found that for power plants with multiple observations, the correlation of estimated and reported emissions is significantly improved compared to a single observation case. This demonstrates that accurate estimation of power plant emissions can be achieved by monitoring from future satellite missions with more frequent observations.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
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This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Fabian A. Gomez, Sang-Ki Lee, Charles A. Stock, Andrew C. Ross, Laure Resplandy, Samantha A. Siedlecki, Filippos Tagklis, and Joseph E. Salisbury
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2223–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2223-2023, 2023
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We present a river chemistry and discharge dataset for 140 rivers in the United States, which integrates information from the Water Quality Database of the US Geological Survey (USGS), the USGS’s Surface-Water Monthly Statistics for the Nation, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This dataset includes dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity, two key properties to characterize the carbonate system, as well as nutrient concentrations, such as nitrate, phosphate, and silica.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Rainer Kiko, Fabien Lombard, Lionel Guidi, and Corinne Le Quéré
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2995-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2995-2023, 2023
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Using outputs of global biogeochemical ocean model and machine learning methods, we demonstrate that it will be possible to identify linkages between surface environmental and ecosystem structure and the export of carbon to depth by sinking organic particles using real observations. It will be possible to use this knowledge to improve both our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and of their functional representation within models.
Richard A. Houghton and Andrea Castanho
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2025–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2025-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2025-2023, 2023
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We update a previous analysis of carbon emissions (annual and national) from land use, land-use change, and forestry from 1850 to 2020. We use data from the latest (2020) Global Forest Resources Assessment, incorporate shifting cultivation, and include improvements to the bookkeeping model and recent estimates of emissions from peatlands. Net global emissions declined steadily over the decade from 2011 to 2020 (mean of 0.96 Pg C yr−1), falling below 1.0 Pg C yr−1 for the first time in 30 years.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
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Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Yuchan Chen, Xiuzhi Chen, Meimei Xue, Chuanxun Yang, Wei Zheng, Jun Cao, Wenting Yan, and Wenping Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1929–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1929-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1929-2023, 2023
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This study addresses the quantification and estimation of the watershed-characteristic-related parameter (Pw) in the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups. The results show that Pw is closely related to soil moisture and fractional vegetation cover, and the relationship varies across specific hydrologic similarity groups. The overall satisfactory performance of the Pw estimation model improves the applicability of the Budyko framework for global runoff estimation.
Clément Haëck, Marina Lévy, Inès Mangolte, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 20, 1741–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1741-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1741-2023, 2023
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Phytoplankton vary in abundance in the ocean over large regions and with the seasons but also because of small-scale heterogeneities in surface temperature, called fronts. Here, using satellite imagery, we found that fronts enhance phytoplankton much more where it is already growing well, but despite large local increases the enhancement for the region is modest (5 %). We also found that blooms start 1 to 2 weeks earlier over fronts. These effects may have implications for ecosystems.
Aparnna Ravi, Dhanyalekshmi Pillai, Christoph Gerbig, Stephen Sitch, Sönke Zaehle, Vishnu Thilakan, and Chandra Shekhar Jha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-817, 2023
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We derive high-resolution terrestrial CO2 fluxes over India from 2012 to 2020. This is achieved by utilizing satellite-based vegetation indices and meteorological data in a data-driven biospheric model. The model simulations are improved by incorporating soil variables and SIF retrievals from satellite instruments and relate them to ecosystem productivity across different biomes. The derived flux products better explain the flux variability compared to other existing model estimates.
Ida Storm, Ute Karstens, Claudio D'Onofrio, Alex Vermeulen, and Wouter Peters
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4993–5008, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4993-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4993-2023, 2023
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In this study, we evaluate what is in the influence regions of the ICOS atmospheric measurement stations to gain insight into what land cover types and land-cover-associated fluxes the network represents. Subsequently, insights about strengths, weaknesses, and potential gaps can assist in future network expansion decisions. The network is concentrated in central Europe, which leads to a general overrepresentation of coniferous forest and cropland and underrepresentation of grass and shrubland.
Yimian Ma, Xu Yue, Stephen Sitch, Nadine Unger, Johan Uddling, Lina M. Mercado, Cheng Gong, Zhaozhong Feng, Huiyi Yang, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yang Cao, Yadong Lei, Alexander W. Cheesman, Yansen Xu, and Maria Carolina Duran Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2261–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, 2023
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Plants have been found to respond differently to O3, but the variations in the sensitivities have rarely been explained nor fully implemented in large-scale assessment. This study proposes a new O3 damage scheme with leaf mass per area to unify varied sensitivities for all plant species. Our assessment reveals an O3-induced reduction of 4.8 % in global GPP, with the highest reduction of >10 % for cropland, suggesting an emerging risk of crop yield loss under the threat of O3 pollution.
Liang Feng, Paul I. Palmer, Robert J. Parker, Mark F. Lunt, and Hartmut Bösch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 4863–4880, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-4863-2023, 2023
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Our understanding of recent changes in atmospheric methane has defied explanation. Since 2007, the atmospheric growth of methane has accelerated to record-breaking values in 2020 and 2021. We use satellite observations of methane to show that (1) increasing emissions over the tropics are mostly responsible for these recent atmospheric changes, and (2) changes in the OH sink during the 2020 Covid-19 lockdown can explain up to 34% of changes in atmospheric methane for that year.
Rodrigo Andres Rivera Martinez, Diego Santaren, Olivier Laurent, Gregoire Broquet, Ford Cropley, Cécile Mallet, Michel Ramonet, Adil Shah, Leonard Rivier, Caroline Bouchet, Catherine Juery, Olivier Duclaux, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2209–2235, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2209-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2209-2023, 2023
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A network of low-cost sensors is a good alternative to improve the detection of fugitive CH4 emissions. We present the results of four tests conducted with two types of Figaro sensors that were assembled on four chambers in a laboratory experiment: a comparison of five models to reconstruct the CH4 signal, a strategy to reduce the training set size, a detection of age effects in the sensors and a test of the capability to transfer a model between chambers for the same type of sensor.
Sarah Berthet, Julien Jouanno, Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, and William Llovel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 399–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, 2023
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Phytoplankton absorbs the solar radiation entering the ocean surface and contributes to keeping the associated energy in surface waters. This natural effect is either not represented in the ocean component of climate models or its representation is simplified. An incomplete representation of this biophysical interaction affects the way climate models simulate ocean warming, which leads to uncertainties in projections of oceanic emissions of an important greenhouse gas (nitrous oxide).
Shengli Tao, Zurui Ao, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Sassan Saatchi, Philippe Ciais, Jérôme Chave, Thuy Le Toan, Pierre-Louis Frison, Xiaomei Hu, Chi Chen, Lei Fan, Mengjia Wang, Jiangling Zhu, Xia Zhao, Xiaojun Li, Xiangzhuo Liu, Yanjun Su, Tianyu Hu, Qinghua Guo, Zhiheng Wang, Zhiyao Tang, Yi Y. Liu, and Jingyun Fang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1577–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1577-2023, 2023
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We provide the first long-term (since 1992), high-resolution (8.9 km) satellite radar backscatter data set (LHScat) with a C-band (5.3 GHz) signal dynamic for global lands. LHScat was created by fusing signals from ERS (1992–2001; C-band), QSCAT (1999–2009; Ku-band), and ASCAT (since 2007; C-band). LHScat has been validated against independent ERS-2 signals. It could be used in a variety of studies, such as vegetation monitoring and hydrological modelling.
Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Libo Wang, and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht
Biogeosciences, 20, 1313–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, 2023
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The behaviour of natural systems is now very often represented through mathematical models. These models represent our understanding of how nature works. Of course, nature does not care about our understanding. Since our understanding is not perfect, evaluating models is challenging, and there are uncertainties. This paper illustrates this uncertainty for land models and argues that evaluating models in light of the uncertainty in various components provides useful information.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
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Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Cédric Bacour, Natasha MacBean, Frédéric Chevallier, Sébastien Léonard, Ernest N. Koffi, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 20, 1089–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1089-2023, 2023
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The impact of assimilating different dataset combinations on regional to global-scale C budgets is explored with the ORCHIDEE model. Assimilating simultaneously multiple datasets is preferable to optimize the values of the model parameters and avoid model overfitting. The challenges in constraining soil C disequilibrium using atmospheric CO2 data are highlighted for an accurate prediction of the land sink distribution.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
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This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin G. Jones, Steven T. Rumbold, Till Kuhlbrodt, Andrea J. Dittus, Edward W. Blockley, Andrew Yool, Jeremy Walton, Catherine Hardacre, Timothy Andrews, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Marc Stringer, Lee de Mora, Phil Harris, Richard Hill, Doug Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Yongming Tang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1569–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1569-2023, 2023
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Recent global climate models simulate historical global mean surface temperatures which are too cold, possibly to due to excessive aerosol cooling. This raises questions about the models' ability to simulate important climate processes and reduces confidence in future climate predictions. We present a new version of the UK Earth System Model, which has an improved aerosols simulation and a historical temperature record. Interestingly, the long-term response to CO2 remains largely unchanged.
Giacomo Grassi, Clemens Schwingshackl, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Alessandro Cescatti, Philippe Ciais, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, Werner A. Kurz, Maria J. Sanz Sanchez, Raúl Abad Viñas, Ramdane Alkama, Selma Bultan, Guido Ceccherini, Stefanie Falk, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Anu Korosuo, Joana Melo, Matthew J. McGrath, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Anna A. Romanovskaya, Simone Rossi, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, 2023
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Striking differences exist in estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse gas inventories and the IPCC assessment reports. These differences hamper an accurate assessment of the collective progress under the Paris Agreement. By implementing an approach that conceptually reconciles land-use CO2 flux from national inventories and the global models used by the IPCC, our study is an important step forward for increasing confidence in land-use CO2 flux estimates.
Brendan Byrne, David F. Baker, Sourish Basu, Michael Bertolacci, Kevin W. Bowman, Dustin Carroll, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Noel Cressie, David Crisp, Sean Crowell, Feng Deng, Zhu Deng, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Manvendra K. Dubey, Sha Feng, Omaira E. García, David W. T. Griffith, Benedikt Herkommer, Lei Hu, Andrew R. Jacobson, Rajesh Janardanan, Sujong Jeong, Matthew S. Johnson, Dylan B. A. Jones, Rigel Kivi, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Shamil Maksyutov, John B. Miller, Scot M. Miller, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Tomohiro Oda, Christopher W. O'Dell, Young-Suk Oh, Hirofumi Ohyama, Prabir K. Patra, Hélène Peiro, Christof Petri, Sajeev Philip, David F. Pollard, Benjamin Poulter, Marine Remaud, Andrew Schuh, Mahesh K. Sha, Kei Shiomi, Kimberly Strong, Colm Sweeney, Yao Té, Hanqin Tian, Voltaire A. Velazco, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Thorsten Warneke, John R. Worden, Debra Wunch, Yuanzhi Yao, Jeongmin Yun, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 963–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, 2023
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Changes in the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems result in emissions and removals of CO2. These can be driven by anthropogenic activities (e.g., deforestation), natural processes (e.g., fires) or in response to rising CO2 (e.g., CO2 fertilization). This paper describes a dataset of CO2 emissions and removals derived from atmospheric CO2 observations. This pilot dataset informs current capabilities and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.
Xiaoyong Li, Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun Lu, and Shufen Pan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1005–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1005-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1005-2023, 2023
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We reconstructed land use and land cover (LULC) history for the conterminous United States during 1630–2020 by integrating multi-source data. The results show the widespread expansion of cropland and urban land and the shrinking of natural vegetation in the past four centuries. Forest planting and regeneration accelerated forest recovery since the 1920s. The datasets can be used to assess the LULC impacts on the ecosystem's carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles.
Saqr Munassar, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Christian Rödenbeck, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2813–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2813-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2813-2023, 2023
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Using different transport models results in large errors in optimized fluxes in the atmospheric inversions. Boundary conditions and inversion system configurations lead to a smaller but non-negligible impact. The findings highlight the importance to validate transport models for further developments but also to properly account for such errors in inverse modelling. This will help narrow the convergence of gas estimates reported in the scientific literature from different inversion frameworks.
Chuanlong Zhou, Biqing Zhu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Antoine Halff, Simon Ben Arous, Hugo de Almeida Rodrigues, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 949–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-949-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-949-2023, 2023
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Our work aims to analyze sectoral and country-based daily natural gas supply–storage–consumption based on ENTSOG, Eurostat, and multiple datasets in the EU27 and UK. We estimated the magnitude of the Russian gas gap if Russian gas imports were to stop as well as potential short-term solutions to fill this gap. Our datasets could be important in various fields, such as gas/energy consumption and market modeling, carbon emission and climate change research, and policy decision-making.
Corentin Clerc, Laurent Bopp, Fabio Benedetti, Meike Vogt, and Olivier Aumont
Biogeosciences, 20, 869–895, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, 2023
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Gelatinous zooplankton play a key role in the ocean carbon cycle. In particular, pelagic tunicates, which feed on a wide size range of prey, produce rapidly sinking detritus. Thus, they efficiently transfer carbon from the surface to the depths. Consequently, we added these organisms to a marine biogeochemical model (PISCES-v2) and evaluated their impact on the global carbon cycle. We found that they contribute significantly to carbon export and that this contribution increases with depth.
Peter Edward Land, Helen S. Findlay, Jamie D. Shutler, Jean-Francois Piolle, Richard Sims, Hannah Green, Vassilis Kitidis, Alexander Polukhin, and Irina I. Pipko
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 921–947, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-921-2023, 2023
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Measurements of the ocean’s carbonate system (e.g. CO2 and pH) have increased greatly in recent years, resulting in a need to combine these data with satellite measurements and model results, so they can be used to test predictions of how the ocean reacts to changes such as absorption of the CO2 emitted by humans. We show a method of combining data into regions of interest (100 km circles over a 10 d period) and apply it globally to produce a harmonised and easy-to-use data archive.
Yann Quilcaille, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1129–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, 2023
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The model OSCAR is a simple climate model, meaning its representation of the Earth system is simplified but calibrated on models of higher complexity. Here, we diagnose its latest version using a total of 99 experiments in a probabilistic framework and under observational constraints. OSCAR v3.1 shows good agreement with observations, complex Earth system models and emerging properties. Some points for improvements are identified, such as the ocean carbon cycle.
Maureen Beaudor, Nicolas Vuichard, Juliette Lathière, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Martin Van Damme, Lieven Clarisse, and Didier Hauglustaine
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1053–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1053-2023, 2023
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Ammonia mainly comes from the agricultural sector, and its volatilization relies on environmental variables. Our approach aims at benefiting from an Earth system model framework to estimate it. By doing so, we represent a consistent spatial distribution of the emissions' response to environmental changes.
We greatly improved the seasonal cycle of emissions compared with previous work. In addition, our model includes natural soil emissions (that are rarely represented in modeling approaches).
Auke M. van der Woude, Remco de Kok, Naomi Smith, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Santiago Botía, Ute Karstens, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Gerbrand Koren, Harro A. J. Meijer, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Ida Storm, Ingrid Super, Hubertus A. Scheeren, Alex Vermeulen, and Wouter Peters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 579–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-579-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-579-2023, 2023
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To monitor the progress towards the CO2 emission goals set out in the Paris Agreement, the European Union requires an independent validation of emitted CO2. For this validation, atmospheric measurements of CO2 can be used, together with first-guess estimates of CO2 emissions and uptake. To quickly inform end users, it is imperative that this happens in near real-time. To aid these efforts, we create estimates of European CO2 exchange at high resolution in near real time.
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
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For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
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Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Kai Wu, Paul I. Palmer, Dien Wu, Denis Jouglet, Liang Feng, and Tom Oda
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 581–602, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-581-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-581-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the theoretical ability of the upcoming MicroCarb satellite to estimate urban CO2 emissions over Paris and London. We explore the relative performance of alternative two-sweep and three-sweep city observing modes and take into account the impacts of cloud cover and urban biological CO2 fluxes. Our results find both the two-sweep and three-sweep observing modes are able to reduce prior flux errors by 20 %–40 % depending on the prevailing wind direction and cloud coverage.
Andrew F. Feldman, Zhen Zhang, Yasuko Yoshida, Abhishek Chatterjee, and Benjamin Poulter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1545–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1545-2023, 2023
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We investigate the conditions under which satellite-retrieved column carbon dioxide concentrations directly hold information about surface carbon dioxide fluxes, without the use of inversion models. We show that OCO-2 column carbon dioxide retrievals, available at 1–3 month latency, can be used to directly detect and roughly estimate extreme biospheric CO2 fluxes. As such, these OCO-2 retrievals have value for rapidly monitoring extreme conditions in the terrestrial biosphere.
Yangxin Chen, Duoying Ji, Qian Zhang, John C. Moore, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 55–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, 2023
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Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a way of counteracting the warming effects of increasing greenhouse gases by reflecting solar radiation. This work shows that solar geoengineering can slow down the northern-high-latitude permafrost degradation but cannot preserve the permafrost ecosystem as that under a climate of the same warming level without solar geoengineering.
Ricardo Dalagnol, Lênio Soares Galvão, Fabien Hubert Wagner, Yhasmin Mendes de Moura, Nathan Gonçalves, Yujie Wang, Alexei Lyapustin, Yan Yang, Sassan Saatchi, and Luiz Eduardo Oliveira Cruz Aragão
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 345–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-345-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-345-2023, 2023
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The AnisoVeg dataset brings 22 years of monthly satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor for South America at 1 km resolution aimed at vegetation applications. It has nadir-normalized data, which is the most traditional approach to correct satellite data but also unique anisotropy data with strong biophysical meaning, explaining 55 % of Amazon forest height. We expect this dataset to help large-scale estimates of vegetation biomass and carbon.
Kim A. P. Faassen, Linh N. T. Nguyen, Eadin R. Broekema, Bert A. M. Kers, Ivan Mammarella, Timo Vesala, Penelope A. Pickers, Andrew C. Manning, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Harro A. J. Meijer, Wouter Peters, and Ingrid T. Luijkx
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 851–876, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-851-2023, 2023
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The exchange ratio (ER) between atmospheric O2 and CO2 provides a useful tracer for separately estimating photosynthesis and respiration processes in the forest carbon balance. This is highly relevant to better understand the expected biosphere sink, which determines future atmospheric CO2 levels. We therefore measured O2, CO2, and their ER above a boreal forest in Finland and investigated their diurnal behaviour for a representative day, and we show the most suitable way to determine the ER.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-789-2023, 2023
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The large uncertainties in OH simulated by atmospheric chemistry models hinder accurate estimates of CH4 chemical loss through the bottom-up method. This study presents a new approach based on OH precursor observations and a chemical box model to improve the tropospheric OH distributions simulated by atmospheric chemistry models. Through this approach, both the global OH burden and the corresponding methane chemical loss reach consistency with the top-down method based on MCF inversions.
Shuang Gao, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Ingo Bethke, Jens Hartmann, Emilio Mayorga, and Christoph Heinze
Biogeosciences, 20, 93–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, 2023
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We assess the impact of riverine nutrients and carbon (C) on projected marine primary production (PP) and C uptake using a fully coupled Earth system model. Riverine inputs alleviate nutrient limitation and thus lessen the projected PP decline by up to 0.7 Pg C yr−1 globally. The effect of increased riverine C may be larger than the effect of nutrient inputs in the future on the projected ocean C uptake, while in the historical period increased nutrient inputs are considered the largest driver.
Lin Yu, Silvia Caldararu, Bernhard Ahrens, Thomas Wutzler, Marion Schrumpf, Julian Helfenstein, Chiara Pistocchi, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 20, 57–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-57-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-57-2023, 2023
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In this study, we addressed a key weakness in current ecosystem models regarding the phosphorus exchange in the soil and developed a new scheme to describe this process. We showed that the new scheme improved the model performance for plant productivity, soil organic carbon, and soil phosphorus content at five beech forest sites in Germany. We claim that this new model could be used as a better tool to study ecosystems under future climate change, particularly phosphorus-limited systems.
Huibin Dai, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, Jia Zhu, Jianbing Jin, Baojie Li, and Xingwen Jiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 23–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-23-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-23-2023, 2023
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We apply the 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to simulate co-polluted days by O3 and PM2.5 (O3–PM2.5PDs) in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei in 2013–2020 and investigate the chemical and physical characteristics of O3–PM2.5PDs by composited analyses of such days that are captured by both the observations and the model. We report for the first time the unique features in vertical distributions of aerosols during O3–PM2.5PDs and the physical and chemical characteristics of O3–PM2.5PDs.
Leonidas Linardakis, Irene Stemmler, Moritz Hanke, Lennart Ramme, Fatemeh Chegini, Tatiana Ilyina, and Peter Korn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9157–9176, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9157-2022, 2022
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In Earth system modelling, we are facing the challenge of making efficient use of very large machines, with millions of cores. To meet this challenge we will need to employ multi-level and multi-dimensional parallelism. Component concurrency, being a function parallel technique, offers an additional dimension to the traditional data-parallel approaches. In this paper we examine the behaviour of component concurrency and identify the conditions for its optimal application.
Yuan Zhang, Devaraju Narayanappa, Philippe Ciais, Wei Li, Daniel Goll, Nicolas Vuichard, Martin G. De Kauwe, Laurent Li, and Fabienne Maignan
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9111–9125, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9111-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9111-2022, 2022
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There are a few studies to examine if current models correctly represented the complex processes of transpiration. Here, we use a coefficient Ω, which indicates if transpiration is mainly controlled by vegetation processes or by turbulence, to evaluate the ORCHIDEE model. We found a good performance of ORCHIDEE, but due to compensation of biases in different processes, we also identified how different factors control Ω and where the model is wrong. Our method is generic to evaluate other models.
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9075–9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, 2022
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Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source
climate-assessmentworkflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Robert J. Parker, Chris Wilson, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Toby R. Marthews, A. Anthony Bloom, Mark F. Lunt, Nicola Gedney, Simon J. Dadson, Joe McNorton, Neil Humpage, Hartmut Boesch, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Paul I. Palmer, and Dai Yamazaki
Biogeosciences, 19, 5779–5805, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5779-2022, 2022
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Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane, one of the most important climate gases. The JULES land surface model simulates these emissions. We use satellite data to evaluate how well JULES reproduces the methane seasonal cycle over different tropical wetlands. It performs well for most regions; however, it struggles for some African wetlands influenced heavily by river flooding. We explain the reasons for these deficiencies and highlight how future development will improve these areas.
Siv K. Lauvset, Nico Lange, Toste Tanhua, Henry C. Bittig, Are Olsen, Alex Kozyr, Simone Alin, Marta Álvarez, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Leticia Barbero, Susan Becker, Peter J. Brown, Brendan R. Carter, Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, Richard A. Feely, Mario Hoppema, Matthew P. Humphreys, Masao Ishii, Emil Jeansson, Li-Qing Jiang, Steve D. Jones, Claire Lo Monaco, Akihiko Murata, Jens Daniel Müller, Fiz F. Pérez, Benjamin Pfeil, Carsten Schirnick, Reiner Steinfeldt, Toru Suzuki, Bronte Tilbrook, Adam Ulfsbo, Anton Velo, Ryan J. Woosley, and Robert M. Key
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5543–5572, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5543-2022, 2022
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GLODAP is a data product for ocean inorganic carbon and related biogeochemical variables measured by the chemical analysis of water bottle samples from scientific cruises. GLODAPv2.2022 is the fourth update of GLODAPv2 from 2016. The data that are included have been subjected to extensive quality controlling, including systematic evaluation of measurement biases. This version contains data from 1085 hydrographic cruises covering the world's oceans from 1972 to 2021.
Abigale M. Wyatt, Laure Resplandy, and Adrian Marchetti
Biogeosciences, 19, 5689–5705, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5689-2022, 2022
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Marine heat waves (MHWs) are a frequent event in the northeast Pacific, with a large impact on the region's ecosystems. Large phytoplankton in the North Pacific Transition Zone are greatly affected by decreased nutrients, with less of an impact in the Alaskan Gyre. For small phytoplankton, MHWs increase the spring small phytoplankton population in both regions thanks to reduced light limitation. In both zones, this results in a significant decrease in the ratio of large to small phytoplankton.
Thomas Bossy, Thomas Gasser, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8831–8868, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8831-2022, 2022
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We developed a new simple climate model designed to fill a perceived gap within the existing simple climate models by fulfilling three key requirements: calibration using Bayesian inference, the possibility of coupling with integrated assessment models, and the capacity to explore climate scenarios compatible with limiting climate impacts. Here, we describe the model and its calibration using the latest data from complex CMIP6 models and the IPCC AR6, and we assess its performance.
Sourish Basu, Xin Lan, Edward Dlugokencky, Sylvia Michel, Stefan Schwietzke, John B. Miller, Lori Bruhwiler, Youmi Oh, Pieter P. Tans, Francesco Apadula, Luciana V. Gatti, Armin Jordan, Jaroslaw Necki, Motoki Sasakawa, Shinji Morimoto, Tatiana Di Iorio, Haeyoung Lee, Jgor Arduini, and Giovanni Manca
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15351–15377, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15351-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15351-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric methane (CH4) has been growing steadily since 2007 for reasons that are not well understood. Here we determine sources of methane using a technique informed by atmospheric measurements of CH4 and its isotopologue 13CH4. Measurements of 13CH4 provide for better separation of microbial, fossil, and fire sources of methane than CH4 measurements alone. Compared to previous assessments such as the Global Carbon Project, we find a larger microbial contribution to the post-2007 increase.
Rainer Schneck, Veronika Gayler, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Thomas Raddatz, Christian H. Reick, and Reiner Schnur
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8581–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8581-2022, 2022
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The versions of ICON-A and ICON-Land/JSBACHv4 used for this study constitute the first milestone in the development of the new ICON Earth System Model ICON-ESM. JSBACHv4 is the successor of JSBACHv3, and most of the parameterizations of JSBACHv4 are re-implementations from JSBACHv3. We assess and compare the performance of JSBACHv4 and JSBACHv3. Overall, the JSBACHv4 results are as good as JSBACHv3, but both models reveal the same main shortcomings, e.g. the depiction of the leaf area index.
Jörg Schwinger, Ali Asaadi, Norman Julius Steinert, and Hanna Lee
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1641–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, 2022
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We test whether climate change can be partially reversed if CO2 is removed from the atmosphere to compensate for too large past and near-term emissions by using idealized model simulations of overshoot pathways. On a timescale of 100 years, we find a high degree of reversibility if the overshoot size remains small, and we do not find tipping points even for intense overshoots. We caution that current Earth system models are most likely not able to skilfully model tipping points in ecosystems.
Dave van Wees, Guido R. van der Werf, James T. Randerson, Brendan M. Rogers, Yang Chen, Sander Veraverbeke, Louis Giglio, and Douglas C. Morton
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8411–8437, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022, 2022
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We present a global fire emission model based on the GFED model framework with a spatial resolution of 500 m. The higher resolution allowed for a more detailed representation of spatial heterogeneity in fuels and emissions. Specific modules were developed to model, for example, emissions from fire-related forest loss and belowground burning. Results from the 500 m model were compared to GFED4s, showing that global emissions were relatively similar but that spatial differences were substantial.
Stijn Naus, Lucas G. Domingues, Maarten Krol, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Luciana V. Gatti, John B. Miller, Emanuel Gloor, Sourish Basu, Caio Correia, Gerbrand Koren, Helen M. Worden, Johannes Flemming, Gabrielle Pétron, and Wouter Peters
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14735–14750, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14735-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14735-2022, 2022
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We assimilate MOPITT CO satellite data in the TM5-4D-Var inverse modelling framework to estimate Amazon fire CO emissions for 2003–2018. We show that fire emissions have decreased over the analysis period, coincident with a decrease in deforestation rates. However, interannual variations in fire emissions are large, and they correlate strongly with soil moisture. Our results reveal an important role for robust, top-down fire CO emissions in quantifying and attributing Amazon fire intensity.
Thomas Wutzler, Lin Yu, Marion Schrumpf, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8377–8393, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8377-2022, 2022
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Soil microbes process soil organic matter and affect carbon storage and plant nutrition at the ecosystem scale. We hypothesized that decadal dynamics is constrained by the ratios of elements in litter inputs, microbes, and matter and that microbial community optimizes growth. This allowed the SESAM model to descibe decadal-term carbon sequestration in soils and other biogeochemical processes explicitly accounting for microbial processes but without its problematic fine-scale parameterization.
Dien Wu, Junjie Liu, Paul O. Wennberg, Paul I. Palmer, Robert R. Nelson, Matthäus Kiel, and Annmarie Eldering
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14547–14570, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14547-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14547-2022, 2022
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Prior studies have derived the combustion efficiency for a region/city using observed CO2 and CO. We further zoomed into the urban domain and accounted for factors affecting the calculation of spatially resolved combustion efficiency from two satellites. The intra-city variability in combustion efficiency was linked to heavy industry within Shanghai and LA without relying on emission inventories. Such an approach can be applied when analyzing data from future geostationary satellites.
Stephanie Woodward, Alistair A. Sellar, Yongming Tang, Marc Stringer, Andrew Yool, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14503–14528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14503-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14503-2022, 2022
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We describe the dust scheme in the UKESM1 Earth system model and show generally good agreement with observations. Comparing with the closely related HadGEM3-GC3.1 model, we show that dust differences are not only due to inter-model differences but also to the dust size distribution. Under climate change, HadGEM3-GC3.1 dust hardly changes, but UKESM1 dust decreases because that model includes the vegetation response which, in our models, has a bigger impact on dust than climate change itself.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yitong Yao, Emilie Joetzjer, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Jerome Chave, Lawren Sack, Megan Bartlett, Patrick Meir, Rosie Fisher, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7809–7833, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, 2022
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To facilitate more mechanistic modeling of drought effects on forest dynamics, our study implements a hydraulic module to simulate the vertical water flow, change in water storage and percentage loss of stem conductance (PLC). With the relationship between PLC and tree mortality, our model can successfully reproduce the large biomass drop observed under throughfall exclusion. Our hydraulic module provides promising avenues benefiting the prediction for mortality under future drought events.
Arthur Nicolaus Fendrich, Philippe Ciais, Emanuele Lugato, Marco Carozzi, Bertrand Guenet, Pasquale Borrelli, Victoria Naipal, Matthew McGrath, Philippe Martin, and Panos Panagos
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7835–7857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7835-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7835-2022, 2022
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Currently, spatially explicit models for soil carbon stock can simulate the impacts of several changes. However, they do not incorporate the erosion, lateral transport, and deposition (ETD) of soil material. The present work developed ETD formulation, illustrated model calibration and validation for Europe, and presented the results for a depositional site. We expect that our work advances ETD models' description and facilitates their reproduction and incorporation in land surface models.
Hanqin Tian, Zihao Bian, Hao Shi, Xiaoyu Qin, Naiqing Pan, Chaoqun Lu, Shufen Pan, Francesco N. Tubiello, Jinfeng Chang, Giulia Conchedda, Junguo Liu, Nathaniel Mueller, Kazuya Nishina, Rongting Xu, Jia Yang, Liangzhi You, and Bowen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4551–4568, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4551-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4551-2022, 2022
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Nitrogen is one of the critical nutrients for growth. Evaluating the change in nitrogen inputs due to human activity is necessary for nutrient management and pollution control. In this study, we generated a historical dataset of nitrogen input to land at the global scale. This dataset consists of nitrogen fertilizer, manure, and atmospheric deposition inputs to cropland, pasture, and rangeland at high resolution from 1860 to 2019.
Brendan Byrne, Junjie Liu, Yonghong Yi, Abhishek Chatterjee, Sourish Basu, Rui Cheng, Russell Doughty, Frédéric Chevallier, Kevin W. Bowman, Nicholas C. Parazoo, David Crisp, Xing Li, Jingfeng Xiao, Stephen Sitch, Bertrand Guenet, Feng Deng, Matthew S. Johnson, Sajeev Philip, Patrick C. McGuire, and Charles E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 19, 4779–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, 2022
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Plants draw CO2 from the atmosphere during the growing season, while respiration releases CO2 to the atmosphere throughout the year, driving seasonal variations in atmospheric CO2 that can be observed by satellites, such as the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2). Using OCO-2 XCO2 data and space-based constraints on plant growth, we show that permafrost-rich northeast Eurasia has a strong seasonal release of CO2 during the autumn, hinting at an unexpectedly large respiration signal from soils.
Rainer Kiko, Marc Picheral, David Antoine, Marcel Babin, Léo Berline, Tristan Biard, Emmanuel Boss, Peter Brandt, Francois Carlotti, Svenja Christiansen, Laurent Coppola, Leandro de la Cruz, Emilie Diamond-Riquier, Xavier Durrieu de Madron, Amanda Elineau, Gabriel Gorsky, Lionel Guidi, Helena Hauss, Jean-Olivier Irisson, Lee Karp-Boss, Johannes Karstensen, Dong-gyun Kim, Rachel M. Lekanoff, Fabien Lombard, Rubens M. Lopes, Claudie Marec, Andrew M. P. McDonnell, Daniela Niemeyer, Margaux Noyon, Stephanie H. O'Daly, Mark D. Ohman, Jessica L. Pretty, Andreas Rogge, Sarah Searson, Masashi Shibata, Yuji Tanaka, Toste Tanhua, Jan Taucher, Emilia Trudnowska, Jessica S. Turner, Anya Waite, and Lars Stemmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4315–4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4315-2022, 2022
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The term
marine particlescomprises detrital aggregates; fecal pellets; bacterioplankton, phytoplankton and zooplankton; and even fish. Here, we present a global dataset that contains 8805 vertical particle size distribution profiles obtained with Underwater Vision Profiler 5 (UVP5) camera systems. These data are valuable to the scientific community, as they can be used to constrain important biogeochemical processes in the ocean, such as the flux of carbon to the deep sea.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Chenguang Tian, Xu Yue, Jun Zhu, Hong Liao, Yang Yang, Yadong Lei, Xinyi Zhou, Hao Zhou, Yimian Ma, and Yang Cao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12353–12366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12353-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12353-2022, 2022
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We quantify the impacts of fire aerosols on climate through direct, indirect, and albedo effects. In atmosphere-only simulations, we find global fire aerosols cause surface cooling and rainfall inhibition over many land regions. These fast atmospheric perturbations further lead to a reduction in regional leaf area index and lightning activities. By considering the feedback of fire aerosols on humidity, lightning, and leaf area index, we predict a slight reduction in fire emissions.
Flossie Brown, Gerd A. Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Susanne Bauer, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Makoto Deushi, Inês Dos Santos Vieira, Corinne Galy-Lacaux, James Haywood, James Keeble, Lina M. Mercado, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Hans Verbeeck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12331–12352, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, 2022
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Surface ozone can decrease plant productivity and impair human health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface ozone due to climate change over South America and Africa using Earth system models. We find that if the climate were to change according to the worst-case scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of ozone exposure, but other areas will experience a climate benefit.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
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Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Elise Potier, Grégoire Broquet, Yilong Wang, Diego Santaren, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Julia Marshall, Philippe Ciais, François-Marie Bréon, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5261–5288, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5261-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric inversion at local–regional scales over Europe and pseudo-data assimilation are used to evaluate how CO2 and 14CO2 ground-based measurement networks could complement satellite CO2 imagers to monitor fossil fuel (FF) CO2 emissions. This combination significantly improves precision in the FF emission estimates in areas with a dense network but does not strongly support the separation of the FF from the biogenic signals or the spatio-temporal extrapolation of the satellite information.
François-Marie Bréon, Leslie David, Pierre Chatelanaz, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5219–5234, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5219-2022, 2022
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The estimate of atmospheric CO2 from space measurement is difficult. Current methods are based on a detailed description of the atmospheric radiative transfer. These are affected by significant biases and errors and are very computer intensive. Instead we have proposed using a neural network approach. A first attempt led to confusing results. Here we provide an interpretation for these results and describe a new version that leads to high-quality estimates.
Jan De Pue, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Manuela Balzarolo, Fabienne Maignan, and Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs
Biogeosciences, 19, 4361–4386, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4361-2022, 2022
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The functioning of ecosystems involves numerous biophysical processes which interact with each other. Land surface models (LSMs) are used to describe these processes and form an essential component of climate models. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of three LSMs and their interactions with soil moisture and vegetation. Though we found room for improvement in the simulation of soil moisture and drought stress, the main cause of errors was related to the simulated growth of vegetation.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
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The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Daniel J. Ford, Gavin H. Tilstone, Jamie D. Shutler, and Vassilis Kitidis
Biogeosciences, 19, 4287–4304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4287-2022, 2022
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This study explores the seasonal, inter-annual, and multi-year drivers of the South Atlantic air–sea CO2 flux. Our analysis showed seasonal sea surface temperatures dominate in the subtropics, and the subpolar regions correlated with biological processes. Inter-annually, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation correlated with the CO2 flux by modifying sea surface temperatures and biological activity. Long-term trends indicated an important biological contribution to changes in the air–sea CO2 flux.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Theodoros Christoudias, Jonilda Kushta, Didier Hauglustaine, and Jean Sciare
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11505–11527, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11505-2022, 2022
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Emission inventories for air pollutants can be uncertain in developing countries. In order to overcome these uncertainties, we model nitrogen oxide emissions in Egypt using satellite retrievals. We detect a weekly cycle reflecting Egyptian social norms, an annual cycle consistent with electricity consumption and an activity drop due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, discrepancies with inventories remain high, illustrating the needs for additional data to improve the potential of our method.
David Martín Belda, Peter Anthoni, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Guy Schurgers, Jing Tang, Benjamin Smith, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6709–6745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, 2022
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We present a number of augmentations to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS, which will allow us to use it in studies of the interactions between the land biosphere and the climate. The new module enables calculation of fluxes of energy and water into the atmosphere that are consistent with the modelled vegetation processes. The modelled fluxes are in fair agreement with observations across 21 sites from the FLUXNET network.
Qirui Zhong, Nick Schutgens, Guido van der Werf, Twan van Noije, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Tero Mielonen, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Harri Kokkola, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, David Neubauer, Zak Kipling, Hitoshi Matsui, Paul Ginoux, Toshihiko Takemura, Philippe Le Sager, Samuel Rémy, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Kai Zhang, Jialei Zhu, Svetlana G. Tsyro, Gabriele Curci, Anna Protonotariou, Ben Johnson, Joyce E. Penner, Nicolas Bellouin, Ragnhild B. Skeie, and Gunnar Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11009–11032, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11009-2022, 2022
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Aerosol optical depth (AOD) errors for biomass burning aerosol (BBA) are evaluated in 18 global models against satellite datasets. Notwithstanding biases in satellite products, they allow model evaluations. We observe large and diverse model biases due to errors in BBA. Further interpretations of AOD diversities suggest large biases exist in key processes for BBA which require better constraining. These results can contribute to further model improvement and development.
Johannes Oberpriller, Christine Herschlein, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Andreas Krause, Anja Rammig, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, and Florian Hartig
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6495–6519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, 2022
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Understanding uncertainties of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyzed these across European forests. We find that uncertainties are dominantly induced by parameters related to water, mortality, and climate, with an increasing importance of climate from north to south. These results highlight that climate not only contributes uncertainty but also modifies uncertainties in other ecosystem processes.
Stephen G. Yeager, Nan Rosenbloom, Anne A. Glanville, Xian Wu, Isla Simpson, Hui Li, Maria J. Molina, Kristen Krumhardt, Samuel Mogen, Keith Lindsay, Danica Lombardozzi, Will Wieder, Who M. Kim, Jadwiga H. Richter, Matthew Long, Gokhan Danabasoglu, David Bailey, Marika Holland, Nicole Lovenduski, Warren G. Strand, and Teagan King
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6451–6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, 2022
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The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are predictable in advance. Short-term weather forecasts are most familiar, but recent work has shown that it is possible to generate useful predictions several seasons or even a decade in advance. This study focuses on predictions over intermediate timescales (up to 24 months in advance) and shows that there is promising potential to forecast a variety of changes in the natural environment.
Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Pierre Regnier, Philippe Ciais, Kristof Van Oost, Victoria Naipal, Bertrand Guenet, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1119–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, 2022
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We present a land surface model which can simulate the complete lateral transfer of sediment and carbon from land to ocean through rivers. Our model captures the water, sediment, and organic carbon discharges in European rivers well. Application of our model in Europe indicates that lateral carbon transfer can strongly change regional land carbon budgets by affecting organic carbon distribution and soil moisture.
Daniel J. Jacob, Daniel J. Varon, Daniel H. Cusworth, Philip E. Dennison, Christian Frankenberg, Ritesh Gautam, Luis Guanter, John Kelley, Jason McKeever, Lesley E. Ott, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Qu, Andrew K. Thorpe, John R. Worden, and Riley M. Duren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9617–9646, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9617-2022, 2022
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We review the capability of satellite observations of atmospheric methane to quantify methane emissions on all scales. We cover retrieval methods, precision requirements, inverse methods for inferring emissions, source detection thresholds, and observations of system completeness. We show that current instruments already enable quantification of regional and national emissions including contributions from large point sources. Coverage and resolution will increase significantly in coming years.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
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Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Roland Vernooij, Patrik Winiger, Martin Wooster, Tercia Strydom, Laurent Poulain, Ulrike Dusek, Mark Grosvenor, Gareth J. Roberts, Nick Schutgens, and Guido R. van der Werf
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4271–4294, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4271-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4271-2022, 2022
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Landscape fires are a substantial emitter of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Previous studies have indicated savanna emission factors to be highly variable. Improving fire emission estimates, and understanding future climate- and human-induced changes in fire regimes, requires in situ measurements. We present a drone-based method that enables the collection of a large amount of high-quality emission factor measurements that do not have the biases of aircraft or surface measurements.
Naveen Chandra, Prabir K. Patra, Yousuke Niwa, Akihiko Ito, Yosuke Iida, Daisuke Goto, Shinji Morimoto, Masayuki Kondo, Masayuki Takigawa, Tomohiro Hajima, and Michio Watanabe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9215–9243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022, 2022
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This paper is intended to accomplish two goals: (1) quantify mean and uncertainty in non-fossil-fuel CO2 fluxes estimated by inverse modeling and (2) provide in-depth analyses of regional CO2 fluxes in support of emission mitigation policymaking. CO2 flux variability and trends are discussed concerning natural climate variability and human disturbances using multiple lines of evidence.
Selena Georgiou, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Bart Crezee, Paul I. Palmer, Greta C. Dargie, Sofie Sjögersten, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Ovide B. Emba, Joseph T. Kanyama, Pierre Bola, Jean-Bosco N. Ndjango, Nicholas T. Girkin, Yannick E. Bocko, Suspense A. Ifo, and Simon L. Lewis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-580, 2022
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Two major vegetation types, hardwood trees and palms, overlay the Central Congo Basin peatland complex, each dominant in different locations. We investigated the influence of terrain and climatological variables on their distribution, using a regression model, and found elevation and seasonal rainfall and temperature contribute significantly. There are indications of an optimal range of net water input for palm swamp to dominate, above and below which hardwood swamp dominates.
Mahdi André Nakhavali, Lina M. Mercado, Iain P. Hartley, Stephen Sitch, Fernanda V. Cunha, Raffaello di Ponzio, Laynara F. Lugli, Carlos A. Quesada, Kelly M. Andersen, Sarah E. Chadburn, Andy J. Wiltshire, Douglas B. Clark, Gyovanni Ribeiro, Lara Siebert, Anna C. M. Moraes, Jéssica Schmeisk Rosa, Rafael Assis, and José L. Camargo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5241–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, 2022
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In tropical ecosystems, the availability of rock-derived elements such as P can be very low. Thus, without a representation of P cycling, tropical forest responses to rising atmospheric CO2 conditions in areas such as Amazonia remain highly uncertain. We introduced P dynamics and its interactions with the N and P cycles into the JULES model. Our results highlight the potential for high P limitation and therefore lower CO2 fertilization capacity in the Amazon forest with low-fertility soils.
Quandi Niu, Xuecao Li, Jianxi Huang, Hai Huang, Xianda Huang, Wei Su, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2851–2864, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2851-2022, 2022
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In this paper we generated the first national maize phenology product with a fine spatial resolution (30 m) and a long temporal span (1985–2020) in China, using Landsat images. The derived phenological indicators agree with in situ observations and provide more spatial details than moderate resolution phenology products. The extracted maize phenology dataset can support precise yield estimation and deepen our understanding of the response of agroecosystem to global warming in the future.
Léa Olivier, Jacqueline Boutin, Gilles Reverdin, Nathalie Lefèvre, Peter Landschützer, Sabrina Speich, Johannes Karstensen, Matthieu Labaste, Christophe Noisel, Markus Ritschel, Tobias Steinhoff, and Rik Wanninkhof
Biogeosciences, 19, 2969–2988, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2969-2022, 2022
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We investigate the impact of the interactions between eddies and the Amazon River plume on the CO2 air–sea fluxes to better characterize the ocean carbon sink in winter 2020. The region is a strong CO2 sink, previously underestimated by a factor of 10 due to a lack of data and understanding of the processes responsible for the variability in ocean carbon parameters. The CO2 absorption is mainly driven by freshwater from the Amazon entrained by eddies and by the winter seasonal cooling.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Michał Gałkowski, Sophia Walther, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7875–7892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7875-2022, 2022
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The results obtained from ensembles of inversions over 13 years show the largest spread in the a posteriori fluxes over the station set ensemble. Using different prior fluxes in the inversions led to a smaller impact. Drought occurrences in 2018 and 2019 affected CO2 fluxes as seen in net ecosystem exchange estimates. Our study highlights the importance of expanding the atmospheric site network across Europe to better constrain CO2 fluxes in inverse modelling.
Jiyuan Gao, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Huimin Li, Mengyun Li, Lili Ren, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7131–7142, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7131-2022, 2022
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China has been implementing a sequence of policies for clean air since the year 2013. The aerosol decline produced a 0.09 ± 0.10°C warming during 2013–2017 estimated in this study, and the increase in ozone in the lower troposphere during this time period accelerated the warming, leading to a total 0.16 ± 0.15°C temperature increase in eastern China. Residential emission reductions led to a cooling effect because of a substantial decrease in light-absorbing aerosols.
Shigeyuki Ishidoya, Kazuhiro Tsuboi, Yosuke Niwa, Hidekazu Matsueda, Shohei Murayama, Kentaro Ishijima, and Kazuyuki Saito
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6953–6970, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6953-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6953-2022, 2022
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The atmospheric O2 / N2 ratio and CO2 concentration over the western North Pacific are presented. We found significant modification of the seasonal APO cycle in the middle troposphere due to the interhemispheric mixing of air. APO driven by the net marine biological activities indicated annual sea–air O2 flux during El Niño. Terrestrial biospheric and oceanic CO2 uptakes during 2012–2019 were estimated to be 1.8 and 2.8 Pg C a−1, respectively.
Christian Rödenbeck, Tim DeVries, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, and Ralph F. Keeling
Biogeosciences, 19, 2627–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2627-2022, 2022
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The ocean is an important part of the global carbon cycle, taking up about a quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by burning of fossil fuels and thus slowing down climate change. However, the CO2 uptake by the ocean is, in turn, affected by variability and trends in climate. Here we use carbon measurements in the surface ocean to quantify the response of the oceanic CO2 exchange to environmental conditions and discuss possible mechanisms underlying this response.
Colm Sweeney, Abhishek Chatterjee, Sonja Wolter, Kathryn McKain, Robert Bogue, Stephen Conley, Tim Newberger, Lei Hu, Lesley Ott, Benjamin Poulter, Luke Schiferl, Brad Weir, Zhen Zhang, and Charles E. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6347–6364, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6347-2022, 2022
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The Arctic Carbon Atmospheric Profiles (Arctic-CAP) project demonstrates the utility of aircraft profiles for independent evaluation of model-derived emissions and uptake of atmospheric CO2, CH4, and CO from land and ocean. Comparison with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling system suggests that fluxes of CO2 are very consistent with observations, while those of CH4 have some regional and seasonal biases, and that CO comparison is complicated by transport errors.
Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022
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We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
Jonathan D. Sharp, Andrea J. Fassbender, Brendan R. Carter, Paige D. Lavin, and Adrienne J. Sutton
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2081–2108, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2081-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2081-2022, 2022
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Oceanographers calculate the exchange of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere by comparing partial pressures of carbon dioxide (pCO2). Because seawater pCO2 is not measured everywhere at all times, interpolation schemes are required to fill observational gaps. We describe a monthly gap-filled dataset of pCO2 in the northeast Pacific Ocean off the west coast of North America created by machine-learning interpolation. This dataset is unique in its robust representation of coastal seasonality.
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2045–2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, 2022
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To investigate the impacts of drought on vegetation, which few studies have done due to various limitations, we used the leaf area index as proxy and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to simulate drought impacts because the models use observationally derived climate. We found that the semi-desert biome responds strongly to drought in the summer season, while the tropical forest biome shows a weak response. This study could help target areas to improve drought monitoring and simulation.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Carlos Alberti, Frank Hase, Matthias Frey, Darko Dubravica, Thomas Blumenstock, Angelika Dehn, Paolo Castracane, Gregor Surawicz, Roland Harig, Bianca C. Baier, Caroline Bès, Jianrong Bi, Hartmut Boesch, André Butz, Zhaonan Cai, Jia Chen, Sean M. Crowell, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Dragos Ene, Jonathan E. Franklin, Omaira García, David Griffith, Bruno Grouiez, Michel Grutter, Abdelhamid Hamdouni, Sander Houweling, Neil Humpage, Nicole Jacobs, Sujong Jeong, Lilian Joly, Nicholas B. Jones, Denis Jouglet, Rigel Kivi, Ralph Kleinschek, Morgan Lopez, Diogo J. Medeiros, Isamu Morino, Nasrin Mostafavipak, Astrid Müller, Hirofumi Ohyama, Paul I. Palmer, Mahesh Pathakoti, David F. Pollard, Uwe Raffalski, Michel Ramonet, Robbie Ramsay, Mahesh Kumar Sha, Kei Shiomi, William Simpson, Wolfgang Stremme, Youwen Sun, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Yao Té, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Voltaire A. Velazco, Felix Vogel, Masataka Watanabe, Chong Wei, Debra Wunch, Marcia Yamasoe, Lu Zhang, and Johannes Orphal
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 2433–2463, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2433-2022, 2022
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Space-borne greenhouse gas missions require ground-based validation networks capable of providing fiducial reference measurements. Here, considerable refinements of the calibration procedures for the COllaborative Carbon Column Observing Network (COCCON) are presented. Laboratory and solar side-by-side procedures for the characterization of the spectrometers have been refined and extended. Revised calibration factors for XCO2, XCO and XCH4 are provided, incorporating 47 new spectrometers.
Jianyong Ma, Sam S. Rabin, Peter Anthoni, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, Stefan Olin, Longlong Xia, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 19, 2145–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, 2022
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Improved agricultural management plays a vital role in protecting soils from degradation in eastern Africa. We simulated the impacts of seven management practices on soil carbon pools, nitrogen loss, and crop yield under different climate scenarios in this region. This study highlights the possibilities of conservation agriculture when targeting long-term environmental sustainability and food security in crop ecosystems, particularly for those with poor soil conditions in tropical climates.
Ruqi Yang, Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Stephen Sitch, Wenhan Tang, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Qixiang Cai, Di Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Hanqin Tian, Atul K. Jain, and Pengfei Han
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 833–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, 2022
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We comprehensively investigate historical GPP trends based on five kinds of GPP datasets and analyze the causes for any discrepancies among them. Results show contrasting behaviors between modeled and satellite-based GPP trends, and their inconsistencies are likely caused by the contrasting performance between satellite-derived and modeled leaf area index (LAI). Thus, the uncertainty in satellite-based GPP induced by LAI undermines its role in assessing the performance of DGVM simulations.
Makoto Saito, Tomohiro Shiraishi, Ryuichi Hirata, Yosuke Niwa, Kazuyuki Saito, Martin Steinbacher, Doug Worthy, and Tsuneo Matsunaga
Biogeosciences, 19, 2059–2078, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2059-2022, 2022
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This study tested combinations of two sources of AGB data and two sources of LCC data and used the same burned area satellite data to estimate BB CO emissions. Our analysis showed large discrepancies in annual mean CO emissions and explicit differences in the simulated CO concentrations among the BB emissions estimates. This study has confirmed that BB emissions estimates are sensitive to the land surface information on which they are based.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
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The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Mathilda Hancock, Stephen Sitch, Fabian Jörg Fischer, Jérôme Chave, Michael O'Sullivan, Dominic Fawcett, and Lina María Mercado
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-87, 2022
Publication in BG not foreseen
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Global vegetation models often underestimate the spatial variability of carbon stored in the Amazon forest. This paper demonstrates that including spatially varying tree mortality rates, as opposed to a homogeneous rate, in one model, significantly improves its simulations of the forest carbon store. To overcome the limited resolution of tree mortality data, this research presents a simple method of calculating mortality rates across Amazonia using a dependence on wood density.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Zitely A. Tzompa-Sosa, Marielle Saunois, Chunjing Qiu, Chang Tan, Taochun Sun, Piyu Ke, Yanan Cui, Katsumasa Tanaka, Xin Lin, Rona L. Thompson, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Atul K. Jain, Xiaoming Xu, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Paul I. Palmer, Thomas Lauvaux, Alexandre d'Aspremont, Clément Giron, Antoine Benoit, Benjamin Poulter, Jinfeng Chang, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Giacomo Grassi, Clément Albergel, Francesco N. Tubiello, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1639–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, 2022
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In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, we proposed a method for reconciling the results of global atmospheric inversions with data from UNFCCC national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, based on a new global harmonized database that we compiled from the UNFCCC NGHGIs and a comprehensive framework presented in this study to process the results of inversions, we compared their results of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Séférian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, and Ulrike Niemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4557–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, 2022
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This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, 2022
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Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Elodie Salmon, Fabrice Jégou, Bertrand Guenet, Line Jourdain, Chunjing Qiu, Vladislav Bastrikov, Christophe Guimbaud, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Peylin, Sébastien Gogo, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Mika Aurela, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Jiquan Chen, Bogdan H. Chojnicki, Housen Chu, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, David Holl, Janina Klatt, Olaf Kolle, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Annalea Lohila, Lutz Merbold, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Torsten Sachs, and Klaudia Ziemblińska
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2813–2838, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, 2022
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A methane model that features methane production and transport by plants, the ebullition process and diffusion in soil, oxidation to CO2, and CH4 fluxes to the atmosphere has been embedded in the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model, which includes an explicit representation of northern peatlands. This model, ORCHIDEE-PCH4, was calibrated and evaluated on 14 peatland sites. Results show that the model is sensitive to temperature and substrate availability over the top 75 cm of soil depth.
Pieter Tans
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1903–1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1903-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1903-2022, 2022
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The AirCore collects a continuous air sample in a long tube that can be read later when the captured air is slowly pushed through an analyzer. Much of the variation of gas composition encountered during collection is preserved, like having up to ~ 100 separate air samples. This is illustrated through examples of actual flights, and the analysis algorithm is described. The AirCore provides access to air as high as the mid stratosphere, enabling validation for satellite air composition soundings.
Richard P. Sims, Michael Bedington, Ute Schuster, Andrew J. Watson, Vassilis Kitidis, Ricardo Torres, Helen S. Findlay, James R. Fishwick, Ian Brown, and Thomas G. Bell
Biogeosciences, 19, 1657–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1657-2022, 2022
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The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) being absorbed by the ocean is relevant to the earth's climate. CO2 values in the coastal ocean and estuaries are not well known because of the instrumentation used. We used a new approach to measure CO2 across the coastal and estuarine zone. We found that CO2 and salinity were linked to the state of the tide. We used our CO2 measurements and model salinity to predict CO2. Previous studies overestimate how much CO2 the coastal ocean draws down at our site.
Tobias Christoph Valentin Werner Riess, Klaas Folkert Boersma, Jasper van Vliet, Wouter Peters, Maarten Sneep, Henk Eskes, and Jos van Geffen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1415–1438, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1415-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1415-2022, 2022
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This paper reports on improved monitoring of ship nitrogen oxide emissions by TROPOMI. With its fantastic resolution we can identify lanes of ship nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution not detected from space before. The quality of TROPOMI NO2 data over sea is improved further by recent upgrades in cloud retrievals and the use of sun glint scenes. Lastly, we study the impact of COVID-19 on ship NO2 in European seas and compare the found reductions to emission estimates gained from ship-specific data.
Benjamin Wild, Irene Teubner, Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Matthias Forkel, Robin van der Schalie, Stephen Sitch, and Wouter Dorigo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1063–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1063-2022, 2022
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Gross primary production (GPP) describes the conversion of CO2 to carbohydrates and can be seen as a filter for our atmosphere of the primary greenhouse gas CO2. We developed VODCA2GPP, a GPP dataset that is based on vegetation optical depth from microwave remote sensing and temperature. Thus, it is mostly independent from existing GPP datasets and also available in regions with frequent cloud coverage. Analysis showed that VODCA2GPP is able to complement existing state-of-the-art GPP datasets.
Nicolas Metzl, Claire Lo Monaco, Coraline Leseurre, Céline Ridame, Jonathan Fin, Claude Mignon, Marion Gehlen, and Thi Tuyet Trang Chau
Biogeosciences, 19, 1451–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1451-2022, 2022
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During an oceanographic cruise conducted in January 2020 in the south-western Indian Ocean, we observed very low CO2 concentrations associated with a strong phytoplankton bloom that occurred south-east of Madagascar. This biological event led to a strong regional CO2 ocean sink not previously observed.
Lei Ma, George Hurtt, Lesley Ott, Ritvik Sahajpal, Justin Fisk, Rachel Lamb, Hao Tang, Steve Flanagan, Louise Chini, Abhishek Chatterjee, and Joseph Sullivan
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1971–1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1971-2022, 2022
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We present a global version of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model which can track vegetation 3-D structure and scale up ecological processes from individual vegetation to ecosystem scale. Model evaluation against multiple benchmarking datasets demonstrated the model’s capability to simulate global vegetation dynamics across a range of temporal and spatial scales. With this version, ED has the potential to be linked with remote sensing observations to address key scientific questions.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
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Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Wiley Evans, Geoffrey T. Lebon, Christen D. Harrington, Yuichiro Takeshita, and Allison Bidlack
Biogeosciences, 19, 1277–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1277-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1277-2022, 2022
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Information on the marine carbon dioxide system along the northeast Pacific Inside Passage has been limited. To address this gap, we instrumented an Alaskan ferry in order to characterize the marine carbon dioxide system in this region. Data over a 2-year period were used to assess drivers of the observed variability, identify the timing of severe conditions, and assess the extent of contemporary ocean acidification as well as future levels consistent with a 1.5 °C warmer climate.
Roland Vernooij, Ulrike Dusek, Maria Elena Popa, Peng Yao, Anupam Shaikat, Chenxi Qiu, Patrik Winiger, Carina van der Veen, Thomas Callum Eames, Natasha Ribeiro, and Guido R. van der Werf
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2871–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2871-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2871-2022, 2022
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Landscape fires are a major source of greenhouse gases and aerosols, particularly in sub-tropical savannas. Stable carbon isotopes in emissions can be used to trace the contribution of C3 plants (e.g. trees or shrubs) and C4 plants (e.g. savanna grasses) to greenhouse gases and aerosols if the process is well understood. This helps us to link individual vegetation types to emissions, identify biomass burning emissions in the atmosphere, and improve the reconstruction of historic fire regimes.
Marine Remaud, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabienne Maignan, Sauveur Belviso, Antoine Berchet, Alexandra Parouffe, Camille Abadie, Cédric Bacour, Sinikka Lennartz, and Philippe Peylin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2525–2552, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2525-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2525-2022, 2022
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Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has been recognized as a promising indicator of the plant gross primary production (GPP). Here, we assimilate both COS and CO2 measurements into an atmospheric transport model to obtain information on GPP, plant respiration and COS budget. A possible scenario for the period 2008–2019 leads to a global COS biospheric sink of 800 GgS yr−1 and higher oceanic emissions between 400 and 600 GgS yr−1.
Sayaka Yasunaka, Tsuneo Ono, Kosei Sasaoka, and Kanako Sato
Ocean Sci., 18, 255–268, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-255-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-255-2022, 2022
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Chlorophyll a (Chl a), which is the primary pigment used in photosynthesis, often retains its maximum value in the subsurface layer rather that at the surface. In this study, we integrate Chl a concentration data from recent biogeochemical floats, as well as from historical ship-based and other observations, and present global maps of subsurface Chl a concentration and seasonal and interannual variations with related variables, i.e., light intensity, nitrate concentration, and oxygen production.
Céline Gommet, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Haicheng Zhang, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 393–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, 2022
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Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils into river networks is an important component of the land carbon (C) budget, but its spatiotemporal variation is not yet fully constrained. We use a land surface model to simulate the present-day land C budget at the European scale, including leaching of DOC from the soil. We found average leaching of 14.3 Tg C yr−1 (0.6 % of terrestrial net primary production) with seasonal variations. We determine runoff and temperature to be the main drivers.
Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Marion Gehlen, and Frédéric Chevallier
Biogeosciences, 19, 1087–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1087-2022, 2022
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Air–sea CO2 fluxes and associated uncertainty over the open ocean to coastal shelves are estimated with a new ensemble-based reconstruction of pCO2 trained on observation-based data. The regional distribution and seasonality of CO2 sources and sinks are consistent with those suggested in previous studies as well as mechanisms discussed therein. The ensemble-based uncertainty field allows identifying critical regions where improvements in pCO2 and air–sea CO2 flux estimates should be a priority.
Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Josep G. Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoly Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022
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The second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this paper, we give definitions, review different methods, and make recommendations for estimating different components of the total land–atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.
Filippa Fransner, Friederike Fröb, Jerry Tjiputra, Nadine Goris, Siv K. Lauvset, Ingunn Skjelvan, Emil Jeansson, Abdirahman Omar, Melissa Chierici, Elizabeth Jones, Agneta Fransson, Sólveig R. Ólafsdóttir, Truls Johannessen, and Are Olsen
Biogeosciences, 19, 979–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-979-2022, 2022
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Ocean acidification, a direct consequence of the CO2 release by human activities, is a serious threat to marine ecosystems. In this study, we conduct a detailed investigation of the acidification of the Nordic Seas, from 1850 to 2100, by using a large set of samples taken during research cruises together with numerical model simulations. We estimate the effects of changes in different environmental factors on the rate of acidification and its potential effects on cold-water corals.
Thomas Extier, Katharina D. Six, Bo Liu, Hanna Paulsen, and Tatiana Ilyina
Clim. Past, 18, 273–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-273-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-273-2022, 2022
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The role of land–sea fluxes during deglacial flooding in ocean biogeochemistry and CO2 exchange remains poorly constrained due to the lack of climate models that consider such fluxes. We implement the terrestrial organic matter fluxes into the ocean at a transiently changing land–sea interface in MPI-ESM and investigate their effect during the last deglaciation. Most of the terrestrial carbon goes to the ocean during flooding events of Meltwater Pulse 1a, which leads to regional CO2 outgassing.
Douglas P. Finch, Paul I. Palmer, and Tianran Zhang
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 721–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-721-2022, 2022
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We developed a machine learning model to detect plumes of nitrogen dioxide satellite observations over 2 years. We find over 310 000 plumes, mainly over cities, industrial regions, and areas of oil and gas production. Our model performs well in comparison to other datasets and in some cases finds emissions that are not included in other datasets. This method could be used to help locate and measure emission hotspots across the globe and help inform climate policies.
Thomas E. Taylor, Christopher W. O'Dell, David Crisp, Akhiko Kuze, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Paul O. Wennberg, Abhishek Chatterjee, Michael Gunson, Annmarie Eldering, Brendan Fisher, Matthäus Kiel, Robert R. Nelson, Aronne Merrelli, Greg Osterman, Frédéric Chevallier, Paul I. Palmer, Liang Feng, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Manvendra K. Dubey, Dietrich G. Feist, Omaira E. García, David W. T. Griffith, Frank Hase, Laura T. Iraci, Rigel Kivi, Cheng Liu, Martine De Mazière, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Young-Suk Oh, Hirofumi Ohyama, David F. Pollard, Markus Rettinger, Matthias Schneider, Coleen M. Roehl, Mahesh Kumar Sha, Kei Shiomi, Kimberly Strong, Ralf Sussmann, Yao Té, Voltaire A. Velazco, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Thorsten Warneke, and Debra Wunch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 325–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-325-2022, 2022
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We provide an analysis of an 11-year record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations derived using an optimal estimation retrieval algorithm on measurements made by the GOSAT satellite. The new product (version 9) shows improvement over the previous version (v7.3) as evaluated against independent estimates of CO2 from ground-based sensors and atmospheric inversion systems. We also compare the new GOSAT CO2 values to collocated estimates from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2.
Jianyong Ma, Stefan Olin, Peter Anthoni, Sam S. Rabin, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022
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The implementation of the biological N fixation process in LPJ-GUESS in this study provides an opportunity to quantify N fixation rates between legumes and to better estimate grain legume production on a global scale. It also helps to predict and detect the potential contribution of N-fixing plants as
green manureto reducing or removing the use of N fertilizer in global agricultural systems, considering different climate conditions, management practices, and land-use change scenarios.
Hélène Peiro, Sean Crowell, Andrew Schuh, David F. Baker, Chris O'Dell, Andrew R. Jacobson, Frédéric Chevallier, Junjie Liu, Annmarie Eldering, David Crisp, Feng Deng, Brad Weir, Sourish Basu, Matthew S. Johnson, Sajeev Philip, and Ian Baker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1097-2022, 2022
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Satellite CO2 observations are constantly improved. We study an ensemble of different atmospheric models (inversions) from 2015 to 2018 using separate ground-based data or two versions of the OCO-2 satellite. Our study aims to determine if different satellite data corrections can yield different estimates of carbon cycle flux. A difference in the carbon budget between the two versions is found over tropical Africa, which seems to show the impact of corrections applied in satellite data.
Hao Zhou, Xu Yue, Yadong Lei, Chenguang Tian, Jun Zhu, Yimian Ma, Yang Cao, Xixi Yin, and Zhiding Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-693-2022, 2022
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Aerosols enhance plant photosynthesis by increasing diffuse radiation. In this study, we found that the aerosol impacts are quite different for varied species. Scattering aerosols such as sulfate and organic carbon promote photosynthesis while absorbing aerosols such as black carbon have negative impacts. Earth system models should consider the impacts of cloud and aerosol species on terrestrial ecosystems so as to better predict carbon cycles under different emission scenarios.
Alizée Roobaert, Laure Resplandy, Goulven G. Laruelle, Enhui Liao, and Pierre Regnier
Ocean Sci., 18, 67–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-67-2022, 2022
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This study uses a global oceanic model to investigate the seasonal dynamics of the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in the global coastal ocean. Our method quantifies the respective effects of thermal changes, biological activity, ocean circulation and freshwater fluxes on the temporal pCO2 variations. The performance of our model is also evaluated against a data product derived from observations to identify coastal regions where our approach is most robust.
Daniel J. Ford, Gavin H. Tilstone, Jamie D. Shutler, and Vassilis Kitidis
Biogeosciences, 19, 93–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-93-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-93-2022, 2022
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This study identifies the most accurate biological proxy for the estimation of seawater pCO2 fields, which are key to assessing the ocean carbon sink. Our analysis shows that the net community production (NCP), the balance between photosynthesis and respiration, was more accurate than chlorophyll a within a neural network scheme. The improved pCO2 estimates, based on NCP, identified the South Atlantic Ocean as a net CO2 source, compared to a CO2 sink using chlorophyll a.
Lore T. Verryckt, Sara Vicca, Leandro Van Langenhove, Clément Stahl, Dolores Asensio, Ifigenia Urbina, Romà Ogaya, Joan Llusià, Oriol Grau, Guille Peguero, Albert Gargallo-Garriga, Elodie A. Courtois, Olga Margalef, Miguel Portillo-Estrada, Philippe Ciais, Michael Obersteiner, Lucia Fuchslueger, Laynara F. Lugli, Pere-Roc Fernandez-Garberí, Helena Vallicrosa, Melanie Verlinden, Christian Ranits, Pieter Vermeir, Sabrina Coste, Erik Verbruggen, Laëtitia Bréchet, Jordi Sardans, Jérôme Chave, Josep Peñuelas, and Ivan A. Janssens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5-2022, 2022
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We provide a comprehensive dataset of vertical profiles of photosynthesis and important leaf traits, including leaf N and P concentrations, from two 3-year, large-scale nutrient addition experiments conducted in two tropical rainforests in French Guiana. These data present a unique source of information to further improve model representations of the roles of N and P, and other leaf nutrients, in photosynthesis in tropical forests.
Matthew P. Humphreys, Ernie R. Lewis, Jonathan D. Sharp, and Denis Pierrot
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 15–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-15-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-15-2022, 2022
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The ocean helps to mitigate our impact on Earth's climate by absorbing about a quarter of the carbon dioxide (CO2) released by human activities each year. However, once absorbed, chemical reactions between CO2 and water reduce seawater pH (
ocean acidification), which may have adverse effects on marine ecosystems. Our Python package, PyCO2SYS, models the chemical reactions of CO2 in seawater, allowing us to quantify the corresponding changes in pH and related chemical properties.
Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Ara Cho, Jin Ma, Aleya Kaushik, Katherine D. Haynes, Ian Baker, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Mathijs Groenink, Wouter Peters, John B. Miller, Joseph A. Berry, Jerome Ogée, Laura K. Meredith, Wu Sun, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Huilin Chen, Felix M. Spielmann, Georg Wohlfahrt, Max Berkelhammer, Mary E. Whelan, Kadmiel Maseyk, Ulli Seibt, Roisin Commane, Richard Wehr, and Maarten Krol
Biogeosciences, 18, 6547–6565, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6547-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6547-2021, 2021
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The gas carbonyl sulfide (COS) can be used to estimate photosynthesis. To adopt this approach on regional and global scales, we need biosphere models that can simulate COS exchange. So far, such models have not been evaluated against observations. We evaluate the COS biosphere exchange of the SiB4 model against COS flux observations. We find that the model is capable of simulating key processes in COS biosphere exchange. Still, we give recommendations for further improvement of the model.
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
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A large ensemble of simulations with 100 members has been conducted with the state-of-the-art CESM2 Earth system model, using historical and SSP3-7.0 forcing. Our main finding is that there are significant changes in the variance of the Earth system in response to anthropogenic forcing, with these changes spanning a broad range of variables important to impacts for human populations and ecosystems.
Siv K. Lauvset, Nico Lange, Toste Tanhua, Henry C. Bittig, Are Olsen, Alex Kozyr, Marta Álvarez, Susan Becker, Peter J. Brown, Brendan R. Carter, Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, Richard A. Feely, Steven van Heuven, Mario Hoppema, Masao Ishii, Emil Jeansson, Sara Jutterström, Steve D. Jones, Maren K. Karlsen, Claire Lo Monaco, Patrick Michaelis, Akihiko Murata, Fiz F. Pérez, Benjamin Pfeil, Carsten Schirnick, Reiner Steinfeldt, Toru Suzuki, Bronte Tilbrook, Anton Velo, Rik Wanninkhof, Ryan J. Woosley, and Robert M. Key
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5565–5589, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5565-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5565-2021, 2021
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GLODAP is a data product for ocean inorganic carbon and related biogeochemical variables measured by the chemical analysis of water bottle samples from scientific cruises. GLODAPv2.2021 is the third update of GLODAPv2 from 2016. The data that are included have been subjected to extensive quality control, including systematic evaluation of measurement biases. This version contains data from 989 hydrographic cruises covering the world's oceans from 1972 to 2020.
István Dunkl, Aaron Spring, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, 2021
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The variability in atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by terrestrial carbon fluxes. These land–atmosphere fluxes are predictable for around 2 years, but the mechanisms providing the predictability are not well understood. By decomposing the predictability of carbon fluxes into individual contributors we were able to explain the spatial and seasonal patterns and the interannual variability of CO2 flux predictability.
Yohanna Villalobos, Peter J. Rayner, Jeremy D. Silver, Steven Thomas, Vanessa Haverd, Jürgen Knauer, Zoë M. Loh, Nicholas M. Deutscher, David W. T. Griffith, and David F. Pollard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17453–17494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17453-2021, 2021
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Semi-arid ecosystems such as those in Australia are evolving and might play an essential role in the future of climate change. We use carbon dioxide concentrations derived from the OCO-2 satellite instrument and a regional transport model to understand if Australia was a carbon sink or source of CO2 in 2015. Our research's main findings suggest that Australia acted as a carbon sink of about −0.41 ± 0.08 petagrams of carbon in 2015, driven primarily by savanna and sparsely vegetated ecosystems.
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, 2021
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Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas Döbbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5213–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, 2021
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We provide a synthetic dataset on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. We show that GHG emissions continued to rise across all gases and sectors. Annual average GHG emissions growth slowed, but absolute decadal increases have never been higher in human history. We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues in global inventories and highlight their importance for monitoring progress towards international climate goals.
Mark F. Lunt, Alistair J. Manning, Grant Allen, Tim Arnold, Stéphane J.-B. Bauguitte, Hartmut Boesch, Anita L. Ganesan, Aoife Grant, Carole Helfter, Eiko Nemitz, Simon J. O'Doherty, Paul I. Palmer, Joseph R. Pitt, Chris Rennick, Daniel Say, Kieran M. Stanley, Ann R. Stavert, Dickon Young, and Matt Rigby
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16257–16276, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16257-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16257-2021, 2021
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We present an evaluation of the UK's methane emissions between 2013 and 2020 using a network of tall tower measurement sites. We find emissions that are consistent in both magnitude and trend with the UK's reported emissions, with a declining trend driven by a decrease in emissions from England. The impact of various components of the modelling set-up on these findings are explored through a number of sensitivity studies.
Adrian Chappell, Nicholas Webb, Mark Hennen, Charles Zender, Philippe Ciais, Kerstin Schepanski, Brandon Edwards, Nancy Ziegler, Sandra Jones, Yves Balkanski, Daniel Tong, John Leys, Stephan Heidenreich, Robert Hynes, David Fuchs, Zhenzhong Zeng, Marie Ekström, Matthew Baddock, Jeffrey Lee, and Tarek Kandakji
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Dust emissions influence global climate while simultaneously reducing the productive potential and resilience of landscapes to climate stressors, together impacting food security and human health. Our results indicate that tuning dust emission models to dust in the atmosphere has hidden dust emission modelling weaknesses and its poor performance. Our new approach will reduce uncertainty and driven by prognostic albedo improve Earth System Models of aerosol effects on future environmental change.
Simon Besnard, Sujan Koirala, Maurizio Santoro, Ulrich Weber, Jacob Nelson, Jonas Gütter, Bruno Herault, Justin Kassi, Anny N'Guessan, Christopher Neigh, Benjamin Poulter, Tao Zhang, and Nuno Carvalhais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4881–4896, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4881-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4881-2021, 2021
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Forest age can determine the capacity of a forest to uptake carbon from the atmosphere. Yet, a lack of global diagnostics that reflect the forest stage and associated disturbance regimes hampers the quantification of age-related differences in forest carbon dynamics. In this paper, we introduced a new global distribution of forest age inferred from forest inventory, remote sensing and climate data in support of a better understanding of the global dynamics in the forest water and carbon cycles.
Julia Bres, Pierre Sepulchre, Nicolas Viovy, and Nicolas Vuichard
Biogeosciences, 18, 5729–5750, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5729-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5729-2021, 2021
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We emulate angiosperm paleo-traits in a land surface model according to the fossil record, and we assess this paleovegetation functioning under different pCO2 from the leaf scale to the global scale. We show that photosynthesis, transpiration and water-use efficiency are dependent on both the vegetation parameterization and the pCO2. Comparing the modeled vegetation with the fossil record, we provide clues on how to account for angiosperm evolutionary traits in paleoclimate simulations.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Anthony P. Walker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 5639–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, 2021
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The Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, yet the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations by an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models over Australia and highlighted a number of key areas that lead to model divergence on both short (inter-annual) and long (decadal) timescales.
Amanda R. Fay, Luke Gregor, Peter Landschützer, Galen A. McKinley, Nicolas Gruber, Marion Gehlen, Yosuke Iida, Goulven G. Laruelle, Christian Rödenbeck, Alizée Roobaert, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4693–4710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, 2021
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The movement of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the ocean is estimated using surface ocean carbon (pCO2) measurements and an equation including variables such as temperature and wind speed; the choices of these variables lead to uncertainties. We introduce the SeaFlux ensemble which provides carbon flux maps calculated in a consistent manner, thus reducing uncertainty by using common choices for wind speed and a set definition of "global" coverage.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
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Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 501–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, 2021
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Linear response functions are a powerful tool to both predict and investigate the dynamics of a system when subjected to small perturbations. In practice, these functions must often be derived from perturbation experiment data. Nevertheless, current methods for this identification require a tailored perturbation experiment, often with many realizations. We present a method that instead derives these functions from a single realization of an experiment driven by any type of perturbation.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 533–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-533-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-533-2021, 2021
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We apply a new identification method to derive the response functions that characterize the sensitivity of the land carbon cycle to CO2 perturbations in an Earth system model. By means of these response functions, which generalize the usually employed single-valued sensitivities, we can reliably predict the response of the land carbon to weak perturbations. Further, we demonstrate how by this new method one can robustly derive and interpret internal spectra of timescales of the system.
Mehliyar Sadiq, Paul I. Palmer, Mark F. Lunt, Liang Feng, Ingrid Super, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, and Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-816, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-816, 2021
Publication in ACP not foreseen
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We make use of high-resolution emission inventory of CO2 and co-emitted tracers, satellite measurements, together with nested atmospheric transport model simulation, to investigate how reactive trace gases such as nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide can be used as proxies to determine the combustion contribution to atmospheric CO2 over Europe. We find stronger correlation in ratios of nitrogen dioxide and carbon dioxide between emission and satellite observed and modelled column concentration.
Jina Jeong, Jonathan Barichivich, Philippe Peylin, Vanessa Haverd, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Nicolas Vuichard, Michael Neil Evans, Flurin Babst, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5891–5913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021, 2021
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We have proposed and evaluated the use of four benchmarks that leverage tree-ring width observations to provide more nuanced verification targets for land-surface models (LSMs), which currently lack a long-term benchmark for forest ecosystem functioning. Using relatively unbiased European biomass network datasets, we identify the extent to which presumed biases in the much larger International Tree-Ring Data Bank might degrade the validation of LSMs.
Alex Resovsky, Michel Ramonet, Leonard Rivier, Jerome Tarniewicz, Philippe Ciais, Martin Steinbacher, Ivan Mammarella, Meelis Mölder, Michal Heliasz, Dagmar Kubistin, Matthias Lindauer, Jennifer Müller-Williams, Sebastien Conil, and Richard Engelen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6119–6135, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6119-2021, 2021
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We present a technical description of a statistical methodology for extracting synoptic- and seasonal-length anomalies from greenhouse gas time series. The definition of what represents an anomalous signal is somewhat subjective, which we touch on throughout the paper. We show, however, that the method performs reasonably well in extracting portions of time series influenced by significant North Atlantic Oscillation weather episodes and continent-wide terrestrial biospheric aberrations.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
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Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Pramod Kumar, Grégoire Broquet, Camille Yver-Kwok, Olivier Laurent, Susan Gichuki, Christopher Caldow, Ford Cropley, Thomas Lauvaux, Michel Ramonet, Guillaume Berthe, Frédéric Martin, Olivier Duclaux, Catherine Juery, Caroline Bouchet, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5987–6003, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5987-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5987-2021, 2021
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This study presents a simple atmospheric inversion modeling framework for the localization and quantification of unknown CH4 and CO2 emissions from point sources based on near-surface mobile concentration measurements and a Gaussian plume dispersion model. It is applied for the estimate of a series of brief controlled releases of CH4 and CO2 with a wide range of rates during the TOTAL TADI-2018 experiment. Results indicate a ~10 %–40 % average error on the estimate of the release rates.
Yuanyuan Huang, Phillipe Ciais, Maurizio Santoro, David Makowski, Jerome Chave, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Rose Z. Abramoff, Daniel S. Goll, Hui Yang, Ye Chen, Wei Wei, and Shilong Piao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4263–4274, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4263-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4263-2021, 2021
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Roots play a key role in our Earth system. Here we combine 10 307 field measurements of forest root biomass worldwide with global observations of forest structure, climatic conditions, topography, land management and soil characteristics to derive a spatially explicit global high-resolution (~ 1 km) root biomass dataset. In total, 142 ± 25 (95 % CI) Pg of live dry-matter biomass is stored belowground, representing a global average root : shoot biomass ratio of 0.25 ± 0.10.
Antoine Berchet, Espen Sollum, Rona L. Thompson, Isabelle Pison, Joël Thanwerdas, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Adrien Berchet, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Richard Engelen, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Christoph Gerbig, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Sander Houweling, Ute Karstens, Werner L. Kutsch, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Guillaume Monteil, Paul I. Palmer, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Elise Potier, Christian Rödenbeck, Marielle Saunois, Marko Scholze, Aki Tsuruta, and Yuanhong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5331–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, 2021
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We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers.
The ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool. We describe the main structure and functionalities and demonstrate it in a simple academic case.
Louise Chini, George Hurtt, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Stephen Sitch, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Lei Ma, Lesley Ott, Julia Pongratz, and Benjamin Poulter
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4175–4189, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4175-2021, 2021
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Carbon emissions from land-use change are a large and uncertain component of the global carbon cycle. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset was developed as an input to carbon and climate simulations and has been updated annually for the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2 updates and describe the 2019 version which used new cropland and grazing land data inputs for the globally important region of Brazil.
Yi Yin, Frederic Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Bousquet, Marielle Saunois, Bo Zheng, John Worden, A. Anthony Bloom, Robert J. Parker, Daniel J. Jacob, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Christian Frankenberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12631–12647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12631-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12631-2021, 2021
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The growth of methane, the second-most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, has been accelerating in recent years. Using an ensemble of multi-tracer atmospheric inversions constrained by surface or satellite observations, we show that global methane emissions increased by nearly 1 % per year from 2010–2017, with leading contributions from the tropics and East Asia.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
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The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Zhaohui Chen, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Andrew J. Watson, Ute Schuster, Jiang Zhu, and Ning Zeng
Biogeosciences, 18, 4549–4570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4549-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4549-2021, 2021
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As the global temperature continues to increase, carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major driver of this global warming. The increased CO2 is mainly caused by emissions from fossil fuel use and land use. At the same time, the ocean is a significant sink in the carbon cycle. The North Atlantic is a critical ocean region in reducing CO2 concentration. We estimate the CO2 uptake in this region based on a carbon inverse system and atmospheric CO2 observations.
Yadong Lei, Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Lin Zhang, Yang Yang, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Cheng Gong, Yimian Ma, Lan Gao, and Yang Cao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11531–11543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11531-2021, 2021
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We present the first estimate of ozone enhancement by fire emissions through ozone–vegetation interactions using a fully coupled chemistry–vegetation model (GC-YIBs). In fire-prone areas, fire-induced ozone causes a positive feedback to surface ozone mainly because of the inhibition effects on stomatal conductance.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Ocean Sci., 17, 1011–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1011-2021, 2021
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In this work we explored design options for a future Atlantic-scale observational network enabling the release of carbon system estimates by combining data streams from various platforms. We used outputs of a physical–biogeochemical global ocean model at sites of real-world observations to reconstruct surface ocean pCO2 by applying a non-linear feed-forward neural network. The results provide important information for future BGC-Argo deployment, i.e. important regions and the number of floats.
Kyle B. Delwiche, Sara Helen Knox, Avni Malhotra, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Gavin McNicol, Sarah Feron, Zutao Ouyang, Dario Papale, Carlo Trotta, Eleonora Canfora, You-Wei Cheah, Danielle Christianson, Ma. Carmelita R. Alberto, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Dennis Baldocchi, Sheel Bansal, David P. Billesbach, Gil Bohrer, Rosvel Bracho, Nina Buchmann, David I. Campbell, Gerardo Celis, Jiquan Chen, Weinan Chen, Housen Chu, Higo J. Dalmagro, Sigrid Dengel, Ankur R. Desai, Matteo Detto, Han Dolman, Elke Eichelmann, Eugenie Euskirchen, Daniela Famulari, Kathrin Fuchs, Mathias Goeckede, Sébastien Gogo, Mangaliso J. Gondwe, Jordan P. Goodrich, Pia Gottschalk, Scott L. Graham, Martin Heimann, Manuel Helbig, Carole Helfter, Kyle S. Hemes, Takashi Hirano, David Hollinger, Lukas Hörtnagl, Hiroki Iwata, Adrien Jacotot, Gerald Jurasinski, Minseok Kang, Kuno Kasak, John King, Janina Klatt, Franziska Koebsch, Ken W. Krauss, Derrick Y. F. Lai, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Giovanni Manca, Jaclyn Hatala Matthes, Trofim Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Bhaskar Mitra, Timothy H. Morin, Eiko Nemitz, Mats B. Nilsson, Shuli Niu, Walter C. Oechel, Patricia Y. Oikawa, Keisuke Ono, Matthias Peichl, Olli Peltola, Michele L. Reba, Andrew D. Richardson, William Riley, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Youngryel Ryu, Torsten Sachs, Ayaka Sakabe, Camilo Rey Sanchez, Edward A. Schuur, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Oliver Sonnentag, Jed P. Sparks, Ellen Stuart-Haëntjens, Cove Sturtevant, Ryan C. Sullivan, Daphne J. Szutu, Jonathan E. Thom, Margaret S. Torn, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Jessica Turner, Masahito Ueyama, Alex C. Valach, Rodrigo Vargas, Andrej Varlagin, Alma Vazquez-Lule, Joseph G. Verfaillie, Timo Vesala, George L. Vourlitis, Eric J. Ward, Christian Wille, Georg Wohlfahrt, Guan Xhuan Wong, Zhen Zhang, Donatella Zona, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Benjamin Poulter, and Robert B. Jackson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3607–3689, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, 2021
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas, yet we lack knowledge about its global emissions and drivers. We present FLUXNET-CH4, a new global collection of methane measurements and a critical resource for the research community. We use FLUXNET-CH4 data to quantify the seasonality of methane emissions from freshwater wetlands, finding that methane seasonality varies strongly with latitude. Our new database and analysis will improve wetland model accuracy and inform greenhouse gas budgets.
Bo Liu, Katharina D. Six, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 18, 4389–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4389-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4389-2021, 2021
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We incorporate a new representation of the stable carbon isotope 13C in a global ocean biogeochemistry model. The model well reproduces the present-day 13C observations. We find a recent observation-based estimate of the oceanic 13C Suess effect (the decrease in 13C/12C ratio due to uptake of anthropogenic CO2; 13CSE) possibly underestimates 13CSE by 0.1–0.26 per mil. The new model will aid in better understanding the past ocean state via comparison to 13C/12C measurements from sediment cores.
Yidi Xu, Philippe Ciais, Le Yu, Wei Li, Xiuzhi Chen, Haicheng Zhang, Chao Yue, Kasturi Kanniah, Arthur P. Cracknell, and Peng Gong
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4573–4592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4573-2021, 2021
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In this study, we implemented the specific morphology, phenology and harvest process of oil palm in the global land surface model ORCHIDEE-MICT. The improved model generally reproduces the same leaf area index, biomass density and life cycle fruit yield as observations. This explicit representation of oil palm in a global land surface model offers a useful tool for understanding the ecological processes of oil palm growth and assessing the environmental impacts of oil palm plantations.
Damien Couespel, Marina Lévy, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 18, 4321–4349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, 2021
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An alarming consequence of climate change is the oceanic primary production decline projected by Earth system models. These coarse-resolution models parameterize oceanic eddies. Here, idealized simulations of global warming with increasing resolution show that the decline in primary production in the eddy-resolved simulations is half as large as in the eddy-parameterized simulations. This stems from the high sensitivity of the subsurface nutrient transport to model resolution.
Caterina Mogno, Paul I. Palmer, Christoph Knote, Fei Yao, and Timothy J. Wallington
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10881–10909, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10881-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10881-2021, 2021
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We use a 3-D atmospheric chemistry model to investigate how seasonal emissions sources and meteorological conditions affect the surface distribution of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and organic aerosol (OA) over the Indo-Gangetic Plain. We find that all seasonal mean values of PM2.5 still exceed safe air quality levels, with human emissions contributing to PM2.5 all year round, open fires during post- and pre-monsoon, and biogenic emissions during monsoon. OA contributes up to 30 % to PM2.5.
Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Thomas Lauvaux, Bo Zheng, Michel Ramonet, Irène Xueref-Remy, Simone Kotthaus, Martial Haeffelin, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10707–10726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10707-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10707-2021, 2021
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Currently there is growing interest in monitoring city-scale CO2 emissions based on atmospheric CO2 measurements, atmospheric transport modeling, and inversion technique. We analyze the various sources of uncertainty that impact the atmospheric CO2 modeling and that may compromise the potential of this method for the monitoring of CO2 emission over Paris. Results suggest selection criteria for the assimilation of CO2 measurements into the inversion system that aims at retrieving city emissions.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
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A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Elisa Bruni, Bertrand Guenet, Yuanyuan Huang, Hugues Clivot, Iñigo Virto, Roberta Farina, Thomas Kätterer, Philippe Ciais, Manuel Martin, and Claire Chenu
Biogeosciences, 18, 3981–4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3981-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3981-2021, 2021
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Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is beneficial for climate change mitigation and food security. One way to enhance SOC stocks is to increase carbon input to the soil. We estimate the amount of carbon input required to reach a 4 % annual increase in SOC stocks in 14 long-term agricultural experiments around Europe. We found that annual carbon input should increase by 43 % under current temperature conditions, by 54 % for a 1 °C warming scenario and by 120 % for a 5 °C warming scenario.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Roland Séférian, Charles Amory, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Joris Van Bever, Florent Veillon, and Peter Irvine
The Cryosphere, 15, 3013–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, 2021
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Without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions, the Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss can be brought in line with a medium-mitigation emissions scenario by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by 1.5 %. In addition to reducing global warming, these solar geoengineering measures also dampen the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback over the ice sheet by 6 %. However, only stronger reductions in solar radiation could maintain a stable ice sheet in 2100.
Ana Bastos, Kerstin Hartung, Tobias B. Nützel, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Richard A. Houghton, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 745–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, 2021
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Fluxes from land-use change and management (FLUC) are a large source of uncertainty in global and regional carbon budgets. Here, we evaluate the impact of different model parameterisations on FLUC. We show that carbon stock densities and allocation of carbon following transitions contribute more to uncertainty in FLUC than response-curve time constants. Uncertainty in FLUC could thus, in principle, be reduced by available Earth-observation data on carbon densities at a global scale.
Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Louise Chini, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Felix Havermann, George C. Hurtt, Tammas Loughran, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 763–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, 2021
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In this study, we model the relative importance of several contributors to the land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) flux based on a LULCC dataset including uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty of LULCC is as relevant as applying wood harvest and gross transitions for the cumulative LULCC flux over the industrial period. However, LULCC uncertainty matters less than the other two factors for the LULCC flux in 2014; historical LULCC uncertainty is negligible for estimates of future scenarios.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
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In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Brad Weir, Lesley E. Ott, George J. Collatz, Stephan R. Kawa, Benjamin Poulter, Abhishek Chatterjee, Tomohiro Oda, and Steven Pawson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9609–9628, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9609-2021, 2021
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We present a collection of carbon surface fluxes, the Low-order Flux Inversion (LoFI), derived from satellite observations of the Earth's surface and calibrated to match long-term inventories and atmospheric and oceanic records. Simulations using LoFI reproduce background atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements with comparable skill to the leading surface flux products. Available both retrospectively and as a forecast, LoFI enables the study of the carbon cycle as it occurs.
Yosuke Niwa, Yousuke Sawa, Hideki Nara, Toshinobu Machida, Hidekazu Matsueda, Taku Umezawa, Akihiko Ito, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Hiroshi Tanimoto, and Yasunori Tohjima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9455–9473, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9455-2021, 2021
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Fires in Equatorial Asia release a large amount of carbon into the atmosphere. Extensively using high-precision atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) data from a commercial aircraft observation project, we estimated fire carbon emissions in Equatorial Asia induced by the big El Niño event in 2015. Additional shipboard measurement data elucidated the validity of the analysis and the best estimate indicated 273 Tg C for fire emissions during September–October 2015.
Robin D. Lamboll, Chris D. Jones, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephanie Fiedler, Bjørn H. Samset, Nathan P. Gillett, Joeri Rogelj, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3683–3695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, 2021
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Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.
Li-Qing Jiang, Richard A. Feely, Rik Wanninkhof, Dana Greeley, Leticia Barbero, Simone Alin, Brendan R. Carter, Denis Pierrot, Charles Featherstone, James Hooper, Chris Melrose, Natalie Monacci, Jonathan D. Sharp, Shawn Shellito, Yuan-Yuan Xu, Alex Kozyr, Robert H. Byrne, Wei-Jun Cai, Jessica Cross, Gregory C. Johnson, Burke Hales, Chris Langdon, Jeremy Mathis, Joe Salisbury, and David W. Townsend
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2777–2799, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2777-2021, 2021
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Coastal ecosystems account for most of the economic activities related to commercial and recreational fisheries and aquaculture industries, supporting about 90 % of the global fisheries yield and 80 % of known species of marine fish. Despite the large potential risks from ocean acidification (OA), internally consistent water column OA data products in the coastal ocean still do not exist. This paper is the first time we report a high quality OA data product in North America's coastal waters.
Leah Birch, Christopher R. Schwalm, Sue Natali, Danica Lombardozzi, Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, Jennifer Watts, Xin Lin, Donatella Zona, Walter Oechel, Torsten Sachs, Thomas Andrew Black, and Brendan M. Rogers
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3361–3382, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3361-2021, 2021
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The high-latitude landscape or Arctic–boreal zone has been warming rapidly, impacting the carbon balance both regionally and globally. Given the possible global effects of climate change, it is important to have accurate climate model simulations. We assess the simulation of the Arctic–boreal carbon cycle in the Community Land Model (CLM 5.0). We find biases in both the timing and magnitude photosynthesis. We then use observational data to improve the simulation of the carbon cycle.
Bowen Cao, Le Yu, Victoria Naipal, Philippe Ciais, Wei Li, Yuanyuan Zhao, Wei Wei, Die Chen, Zhuang Liu, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2437–2456, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2437-2021, 2021
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In this study, the first 30 m resolution terrace map of China was developed through supervised pixel-based classification using multisource, multi-temporal data based on the Google Earth Engine platform. The classification performed well with an overall accuracy of 94 %. The terrace mapping algorithm can be used to map large-scale terraces in other regions globally, and the terrace map will be valuable for studies on soil erosion, carbon cycle, and ecosystem service assessments.
Astrid Müller, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Takafumi Sugita, Toshinobu Machida, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Prabir K. Patra, Joshua Laughner, and David Crisp
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8255–8271, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8255-2021, 2021
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Over oceans, high uncertainties in satellite CO2 retrievals exist due to limited reference data. We combine commercial ship and aircraft observations and, with the aid of model calculations, obtain column-averaged mixing ratios of CO2 (XCO2) data over the Pacific Ocean. This new dataset has great potential as a robust reference for XCO2 measured from space and can help to better understand changes in the carbon cycle in response to climate change using satellite observations.
Martina Franz and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 3219–3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3219-2021, 2021
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The combined effects of ozone and nitrogen deposition on the terrestrial carbon uptake and storage has been unclear. Our simulations, from 1850 to 2099, show that ozone-related damage considerably reduced gross primary production and carbon storage in the past. The growth-stimulating effect induced by nitrogen deposition is offset until the 2050s. Accounting for nitrogen deposition without considering ozone effects might lead to an overestimation of terrestrial carbon uptake and storage.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Matthew J. McGrath, Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Francesco N. Tubiello, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Pongratz, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, Matthias Kuhnert, Juraj Balkovič, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Hugo A. C. Denier van der
Gon, Efisio Solazzo, Chunjing Qiu, Roberto Pilli, Igor B. Konovalov, Richard A. Houghton, Dirk Günther, Lucia Perugini, Monica Crippa, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Pete Smith, Saqr Munassar, Rona L. Thompson, Giulia Conchedda, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2363–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CO2 fossil emissions and CO2 land fluxes in the EU27+UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with ecosystem data, land carbon models and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling CO2 estimates with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Yuanxu Dong, Mingxi Yang, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Vassilis Kitidis, and Thomas G. Bell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8089–8110, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8089-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8089-2021, 2021
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Eddy covariance (EC) is the most direct method for measuring air–sea CO2 flux from ships. However, uncertainty in EC air–sea CO2 fluxes has not been well quantified. Here we show that with the state-of-the-art gas analysers, instrumental noise no longer contributes significantly to the CO2 flux uncertainty. Applying an appropriate averaging timescale (1–3 h) and suitable air–sea CO2 fugacity threshold (at least 20 µatm) to EC flux data enables an optimal analysis of the gas transfer velocity.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
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We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Duo Cui, Zhu Liu, CunCun Duan, Zhu Deng, Xiangzheng Deng, Xuanren Song, Xinyu Dou, and Taochun Sun
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-153, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Here we describe a daily CO2 emissions dataset from three industrial sectors such as power, industry and ground transport in 31 provinces of China in 2019 and 2020. We used national daily emissions from Carbon Monitor database and calculated updating provincial weight factor corresponding to CO2 emissions. This is the first timely updating provincial daily CO2 emissions dataset, which is critical for achieving carbon emissions reductions targets for China's provinces.
Tessa Sophia van der Voort, Thomas Michael Blattmann, Muhammed Usman, Daniel Montluçon, Thomas Loeffler, Maria Luisa Tavagna, Nicolas Gruber, and Timothy Ian Eglinton
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2135–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2135-2021, 2021
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Ocean sediments form the largest and longest-term storage of organic carbon. Despite their global importance, information on these sediments is often scattered, incomplete or inaccessible. Here we present MOSAIC (Modern Ocean Sediment Archive and Inventory of Carbon, mosaic.ethz.ch), a (radio)carbon-centric database that addresses this information gap. This database provides a platform for assessing the transport, deposition and storage of carbon in ocean surface sediments.
Jasdeep Singh Anand, Alessandro Anav, Marcello Vitale, Daniele Peano, Nadine Unger, Xu Yue, Robert J. Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-125, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-125, 2021
Publication in BG not foreseen
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Ozone damages plants, which prevents them from absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. This poses a potential threat to preventing dangerous climate change. In this work, satellite observations of forest cover, ozone, climate, and growing season are combined with an empirical model to estimate the carbon lost due to ozone exposure over Europe. The estimated carbon losses agree well with prior modelled estimates, showing for the first time that satellites can be used to better understand this effect.
Fabienne Maignan, Camille Abadie, Marine Remaud, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Róisín Commane, Richard Wehr, J. Elliott Campbell, Sauveur Belviso, Stephen A. Montzka, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Yoichi P. Shiga, Nicolas Vuichard, Mary E. Whelan, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 18, 2917–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, 2021
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The assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) by continental vegetation has been proposed as a proxy for gross primary production (GPP). Using a land surface and a transport model, we compare a mechanistic representation of the plant COS uptake (Berry et al., 2013) to the classical leaf relative uptake (LRU) approach linking GPP and vegetation COS fluxes. We show that at high temporal resolutions a mechanistic approach is mandatory, but at large scales the LRU approach compares similarly.
Samantha A. Siedlecki, Darren Pilcher, Evan M. Howard, Curtis Deutsch, Parker MacCready, Emily L. Norton, Hartmut Frenzel, Jan Newton, Richard A. Feely, Simone R. Alin, and Terrie Klinger
Biogeosciences, 18, 2871–2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2871-2021, 2021
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Future ocean conditions can be simulated using projected trends in fossil fuel use paired with Earth system models. Global models generally do not include local processes important to coastal ecosystems. These coastal processes can alter the degree of change projected. Higher-resolution models that include local processes predict modified changes in carbon stressors when compared to changes projected by global models in the California Current System.
Zhen Zhang, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Katherine Jensen, Kyle McDonald, Gustaf Hugelius, Thomas Gumbricht, Mark Carroll, Catherine Prigent, Annett Bartsch, and Benjamin Poulter
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2001–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2001-2021, 2021
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The spatiotemporal distribution of wetlands is one of the important and yet uncertain factors determining the time and locations of methane fluxes. The Wetland Area and Dynamics for Methane Modeling (WAD2M) dataset describes the global data product used to quantify the areal dynamics of natural wetlands and how global wetlands are changing in response to climate.
Anteneh Getachew Mengistu, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerbrand Koren, Maurits L. Kooreman, K. Folkert Boersma, Torbern Tagesson, Jonas Ardö, Yann Nouvellon, and Wouter Peters
Biogeosciences, 18, 2843–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2843-2021, 2021
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In this study, we assess the usefulness of Sun-Induced Fluorescence of Terrestrial Ecosystems Retrieval (SIFTER) data from the GOME-2A instrument and near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) from MODIS to capture the seasonality and magnitudes of gross primary production (GPP) derived from six eddy-covariance flux towers in Africa in the overlap years between 2007–2014. We also test the robustness of sun-induced fluoresence and NIRv to compare the seasonality of GPP for the major biomes.
Leonardo Calle and Benjamin Poulter
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2575–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2575-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2575-2021, 2021
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We developed a model to simulate and track the age of ecosystems on Earth. We found that the effect of ecosystem age on net primary production and ecosystem respiration is as important as climate in large areas of every vegetated continent. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age-class model simulates dynamic age-class distributions on Earth and represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
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We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Zichong Chen, Junjie Liu, Daven K. Henze, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Kelley C. Wells, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Emilie Joetzjer, Vladislav Bastrikov, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Hanqin Tian, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Scot M. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6663–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, 2021
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NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite observes atmospheric CO2 globally. We use a multiple regression and inverse model to quantify the relationships between OCO-2 and environmental drivers within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. Our results point to limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to inform key relationships that are very uncertain in process-based models.
Christian Seiler, Joe R. Melton, Vivek K. Arora, and Libo Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2371–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2371-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2371-2021, 2021
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This study evaluates how well the CLASSIC land surface model reproduces the energy, water, and carbon cycle when compared against a wide range of global observations. Special attention is paid to how uncertainties in the data used to drive and evaluate the model affect model skill. Our results show the importance of incorporating uncertainties when evaluating land surface models and that failing to do so may potentially misguide future model development.
Luca Possenti, Ingunn Skjelvan, Dariia Atamanchuk, Anders Tengberg, Matthew P. Humphreys, Socratis Loucaides, Liam Fernand, and Jan Kaiser
Ocean Sci., 17, 593–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-593-2021, 2021
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A Seaglider was deployed for 8 months in the Norwegian Sea mounting an oxygen and, for the first time, a CO2 optode and a chlorophyll fluorescence sensor. The oxygen and CO2 data were used to assess the spatial and temporal variability and calculate the net community production, N(O2) and N(CT). The dataset was used to calculate net community production from inventory changes, air–sea flux, diapycnal mixing and entrainment.
Rui Guo, Jiaoyue Wang, Longfei Bing, Dan Tong, Philippe Ciais, Steven J. Davis, Robbie M. Andrew, Fengming Xi, and Zhu Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1791–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1791-2021, 2021
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Using a life-cycle approach, we estimated the CO2 process emission and uptake of cement materials produced and consumed from 1930 to 2019; ~21 Gt of CO2, about 55 % of the total process emission, had been abated through cement carbonation. China contributed the greatest to the cumulative uptake, with more than 6 Gt (~30 % of the world total), while ~59 %, or more than 12 Gt, of the total uptake was attributed to mortar. Cement CO2 uptake makes up a considerable part of the human carbon budget.
Erik Jacobs, Henry C. Bittig, Ulf Gräwe, Carolyn A. Graves, Michael Glockzin, Jens D. Müller, Bernd Schneider, and Gregor Rehder
Biogeosciences, 18, 2679–2709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2679-2021, 2021
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We use a unique data set of 8 years of continuous carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) surface water measurements from a commercial ferry to study upwelling in the Baltic Sea. Its seasonality and regional and interannual variability are examined. Strong upwelling events drastically increase local surface CO2 and CH4 levels and are mostly detected in late summer after long periods of impaired mixing. We introduce an extrapolation method to estimate regional upwelling-induced trace gas fluxes.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
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Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Bradley D. Hall, Andrew M. Crotwell, Duane R. Kitzis, Thomas Mefford, Benjamin R. Miller, Michael F. Schibig, and Pieter P. Tans
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 3015–3032, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-3015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-3015-2021, 2021
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We have recently revised the carbon dioxide calibration scale used by numerous laboratories that measure atmospheric CO2. The revision follows from an improved understanding of the manometric method used to determine the absolute amount of CO2 in an atmospheric air sample. The new scale is 0.18 μmol mol−1 (ppm) greater than the previous scale at 400 ppm CO2. While this difference is small in relative terms (0.045 %), it is significant in terms of atmospheric monitoring.
Wei Min Hao, Matthew C. Reeves, L. Scott Baggett, Yves Balkanski, Philippe Ciais, Bryce L. Nordgren, Alexander Petkov, Rachel E. Corley, Florent Mouillot, Shawn P. Urbanski, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 18, 2559–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, 2021
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We examined the trends in the spatial and temporal distribution of the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016. The annual area burned in this region declined by 53 % during the 15-year period under analysis. Grassland fires in Kazakhstan dominated the fire activity, comprising 47 % of the area burned but accounting for 84 % of the decline. A wetter climate and the increase in grazing livestock in Kazakhstan are the major factors contributing to the decline in the area burned.
Hiroki Mizuochi, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, Josefine Ghattas, Amen Al-Yaari, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Vladislav Bastrikov, Philippe Peylin, Fabienne Maignan, and Nicolas Vuichard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2199–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, 2021
Dennis Gilfillan and Gregg Marland
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1667–1680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1667-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1667-2021, 2021
Yuan Zhang, Olivier Boucher, Philippe Ciais, Laurent Li, and Nicolas Bellouin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2029–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, 2021
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We investigated different methods to reconstruct spatiotemporal distribution of the fraction of diffuse radiation (Fdf) to qualify the aerosol impacts on GPP using the ORCHIDEE_DF land surface model. We find that climatological-averaging methods which dampen the variability of Fdf can cause significant bias in the modeled diffuse radiation impacts on GPP. Better methods to reconstruct Fdf are recommended.
Giulia Bonino, Elisa Lovecchio, Nicolas Gruber, Matthias Münnich, Simona Masina, and Doroteaciro Iovino
Biogeosciences, 18, 2429–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2429-2021, 2021
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Seasonal variations of processes such as upwelling and biological production that happen along the northwestern African coast can modulate the temporal variability of the biological activity of the adjacent open North Atlantic hundreds of kilometers away from the coast thanks to the lateral transport of coastal organic carbon. This happens with a temporal delay, which is smaller than a season up to roughly 500 km from the coast due to the intense transport by small-scale filaments.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, 2021
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Global climate models are the scientist’s tools used for studying past, present, and future climate conditions. This work examines the ability of a group of our tools in reproducing and capturing the right timing and length of the season when plants show their green leaves. This season, indeed, is fundamental for CO2 exchanges between land, atmosphere, and climate. This work shows that discrepancies compared to observations remain, demanding further polishing of these tools.
Gerd Krahmann, Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Andrew W. Dale, Marcus Dengler, Anja Engel, Nicolaas Glock, Patricia Grasse, Johannes Hahn, Helena Hauss, Mark Hopwood, Rainer Kiko, Alexandra Loginova, Carolin R. Löscher, Marie Maßmig, Alexandra-Sophie Roy, Renato Salvatteci, Stefan Sommer, Toste Tanhua, and Hela Mehrtens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-308, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
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The project "Climate-Biogeochemistry Interactions in the Tropical Ocean" (SFB 754) was a multidisciplinary research project active from 2008 to 2019 aimed at a better understanding of the coupling between the tropical climate and ocean circulation and the ocean's oxygen and nutrient balance. On 34 research cruises, mainly in the Southeast Tropical Pacific and the Northeast Tropical Atlantic, 1071 physical, chemical and biological data sets were collected.
Yan Sun, Daniel S. Goll, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Betrand Guenet, Julian Helfenstein, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Fabienne Maignan, Victoria Naipal, Yilong Wang, Hui Yang, and Haicheng Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1987–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, 2021
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We evaluated the performance of the nutrient-enabled version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CNP v1.2 against remote sensing, ground-based measurement networks and ecological databases. The simulated carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes among different spatial scales are generally in good agreement with data-driven estimates. However, the recent carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere is substantially underestimated. Potential causes and model development priorities are discussed.
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
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All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
Pingyang Li and Toste Tanhua
Ocean Sci., 17, 509–525, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-509-2021, 2021
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Observations of transient tracer distribution provide essential information on ocean ventilation. The use of several commonly used transient traces is limited as their atmospheric mole fractions do not monotonically change. Here we explore new potential oceanic transient tracers with an analytical system that simultaneously measures a large range of compounds. Combined with the known atmospheric history and seawater solubility, we discuss the utility of selected HCFCs, HFCs, and PFCs as tracers.
Anne L. Morée, Jörg Schwinger, Ulysses S. Ninnemann, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Ingo Bethke, and Christoph Heinze
Clim. Past, 17, 753–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-753-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-753-2021, 2021
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This modeling study of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21 000 years ago) ocean explores the biological and physical changes in the ocean needed to satisfy marine proxy records, with a focus on the carbon isotope 13C. We estimate that the LGM ocean may have been up to twice as efficient at sequestering carbon and nutrients at depth as compared to preindustrial times. Our work shows that both circulation and biogeochemical changes must have occurred between the LGM and preindustrial times.
Anita D. Bayer, Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Mey, Andreas Krause, Peter H. Verburg, Peter Anthoni, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021, 2021
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Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.
Bruno Ringeval, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Christian Folberth, Wenfeng Liu, Philippe Debaeke, and Sylvain Pellerin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1639–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, 2021
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We assess how and why global gridded crop models (GGCMs) differ in their simulation of potential yield. We build a GCCM emulator based on generic formalism and fit its parameters against aboveground biomass and yield at harvest simulated by eight GGCMs. Despite huge differences between GGCMs, we show that the calibration of a few key parameters allows the emulator to reproduce the GGCM simulations. Our simple but mechanistic model could help to improve the global simulation of potential yield.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
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This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Mian Liu and Toste Tanhua
Ocean Sci., 17, 463–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-463-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-463-2021, 2021
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We have characterized the major water masses in the Atlantic Ocean based on the properties found in their formation areas using six properties taken from the GLODAPv2 data product, including both conservative (conservative temperature and absolute salinity) and non-conservative (oxygen, silicate, phosphate and nitrate) properties. The distributions of the water masses are estimated by using the optimum multi-parameter (OMP) model, and we have mapped the distributions of the water masses.
Hanna Lee, Helene Muri, Altug Ekici, Jerry Tjiputra, and Jörg Schwinger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 313–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021, 2021
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We assess how three different geoengineering methods using aerosol affect land ecosystem carbon storage. Changes in temperature and precipitation play a large role in vegetation carbon uptake and storage, but our results show that increased levels of CO2 also play a considerable role. We show that there are unforeseen regional consequences under geoengineering applications, and these consequences should be taken into account in future climate policies before implementing them.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Feng Zhou, Xuhui Wang, Polcher Jan, Patrice Dumas, Shushi Peng, Laurent Li, Xudong Zhou, Yan Bo, Yi Xi, and Shilong Piao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1133–1150, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, 2021
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We improved the irrigation module in a land surface model ORCHIDEE and developed a dam operation model with the aim to investigate how irrigation and dams affect the streamflow fluctuations of the Yellow River. Results show that irrigation mainly reduces the annual river flow. The dam operation, however, mainly affects streamflow variation. By considering two generic operation rules, flood control and base flow guarantee, our dam model can sustainably improve the simulation accuracy.
Luke Gregor and Nicolas Gruber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 777–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-777-2021, 2021
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Ocean acidification (OA) has altered the ocean's carbonate chemistry, with consequences for marine life. Yet, no observation-based data set exists that permits us to study changes in OA. We fill this gap with a global data set of relevant surface ocean parameters over the period 1985–2018. This data set, OceanSODA-ETHZ, was created by using satellite and other data to extrapolate ship-based measurements of carbon dioxide and total alkalinity from which parameters for OA were computed.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Roland Vernooij, Marcos Giongo, Marco Assis Borges, Máximo Menezes Costa, Ana Carolina Sena Barradas, and Guido R. van der Werf
Biogeosciences, 18, 1375–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1375-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1375-2021, 2021
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We used drones to measure greenhouse gas emission factors from fires in the Brazilian Cerrado. We compared early-dry-season management fires and late-dry-season fires to determine if fire management can be a tool for abating emissions.
Although we found some evidence of increased CO and CH4 emission factors, the seasonal effect was smaller than that found in previous studies. For N2O, the third most important greenhouse gas, we found opposite trends in grass- and shrub-dominated areas.
Rebecca M. Wright, Corinne Le Quéré, Erik Buitenhuis, Sophie Pitois, and Mark J. Gibbons
Biogeosciences, 18, 1291–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021, 2021
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Jellyfish have been included in a global ocean biogeochemical model for the first time. The global mean jellyfish biomass in the model is within the observational range. Jellyfish are found to play an important role in the plankton ecosystem, influencing community structure, spatiotemporal dynamics and biomass. The model raises questions about the sensitivity of the zooplankton community to jellyfish mortality and the interactions between macrozooplankton and jellyfish.
Zihao Bian, Hanqin Tian, Qichun Yang, Rongting Xu, Shufen Pan, and Bowen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 515–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-515-2021, 2021
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The estimation of manure nutrient production and application is critical for the efficient use of manure nutrients. This study developed four manure nitrogen and phosphorus datasets with high spatial resolution and a long time period (1860–2017) in the US. The datasets can provide useful information for stakeholders and scientists who focus on agriculture, nutrient budget, and biogeochemical cycle.
Meike Becker, Are Olsen, Peter Landschützer, Abdirhaman Omar, Gregor Rehder, Christian Rödenbeck, and Ingunn Skjelvan
Biogeosciences, 18, 1127–1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1127-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1127-2021, 2021
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We developed a simple method to refine existing open-ocean maps towards different coastal seas. Using a multi-linear regression, we produced monthly maps of surface ocean fCO2 in the northern European coastal seas (the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Norwegian Coast and the Barents Sea) covering a time period from 1998 to 2016. Based on this fCO2 map, we calculate trends in surface ocean fCO2, pH and the air–sea gas exchange.
Margaret R. Marvin, Paul I. Palmer, Barry G. Latter, Richard Siddans, Brian J. Kerridge, Mohd Talib Latif, and Md Firoz Khan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1917–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1917-2021, 2021
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We use an atmospheric chemistry model in combination with satellite and surface observations to investigate how biomass burning affects tropospheric ozone over Southeast Asia during its fire seasons. We find that nitrogen oxides from biomass burning were responsible for about 30 % of the regional ozone formation potential, and we estimate that ozone from biomass burning caused more than 400 excess premature deaths in Southeast Asia during the peak burning months of March and September 2014.
Shigeyuki Ishidoya, Satoshi Sugawara, Yasunori Tohjima, Daisuke Goto, Kentaro Ishijima, Yosuke Niwa, Nobuyuki Aoki, and Shohei Murayama
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1357–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1357-2021, 2021
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The surface Ar / N2 ratio showed not only secular increasing trends, but also interannual variations in phase with the global ocean heat content (OHC). Sensitivity test by using a two-dimensional model indicated that the secular trend in the Ar / N2 ratio is modified by the gravitational separation in the stratosphere. The analytical results imply that the surface Ar/N2 ratio is an important tracer for detecting spatiotemporally integrated changes in OHC and stratospheric circulation.
Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Paul T. Griffiths, Catherine Hardacre, Ben T. Johnson, Ron Kahana, James Keeble, Byeonghyeon Kim, Olaf Morgenstern, Jane P. Mulcahy, Mark Richardson, Eddy Robertson, Jeongbyn Seo, Sungbo Shim, João C. Teixeira, Steven T. Turnock, Jonny Williams, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Stephanie Woodward, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1211–1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021, 2021
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This paper calculates how changes in emissions and/or concentrations of different atmospheric constituents since the pre-industrial era have altered the Earth's energy budget at the present day using a metric called effective radiative forcing. The impact of land use change is also assessed. We find that individual contributions do not add linearly, and different Earth system interactions can affect the magnitude of the calculated effective radiative forcing.
Ali Asaadi and Vivek K. Arora
Biogeosciences, 18, 669–706, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-669-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-669-2021, 2021
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More than a quarter of the current anthropogenic CO2 emissions are taken up by land, reducing the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. This is because of the CO2 fertilization effect which benefits 80 % of global vegetation. However, if nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients cannot keep up with increasing atmospheric CO2, the magnitude of this terrestrial ecosystem service may reduce in future. This paper implements nitrogen constraints on photosynthesis in a model to understand the mechanisms involved.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
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We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Camilla Mathison, Andrew J. Challinor, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, Sébastien Garrigues, Sophie Moulin, Karina Williams, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 437–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-437-2021, 2021
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Sequential cropping (also known as multiple or double cropping) is a common cropping system, particularly in tropical regions. Typically, land surface models only simulate a single crop per year. To understand how sequential crops influence surface fluxes, we implement sequential cropping in JULES to simulate all the crops grown within a year at a given location in a seamless way. We demonstrate the method using a site in Avignon, four locations in India and a regional run for two Indian states.
Sudhanshu Pandey, Sander Houweling, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Maria Tsivlidou, A. Anthony Bloom, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, and Ilse Aben
Biogeosciences, 18, 557–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-557-2021, 2021
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We use atmospheric methane observations from the novel TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI; Sentinel-5p) to estimate methane emissions from South Sudan's wetlands. Our emission estimates are an order of magnitude larger than the estimate of process-based wetland models. We find that this underestimation by the models is likely due to their misrepresentation of the wetlands' inundation extent and temperature dependences.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
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This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Xiaoying Shi, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Peter E. Thornton, Xiaofeng Xu, Fengming Yuan, Richard J. Norby, Anthony P. Walker, Jeffrey M. Warren, Jiafu Mao, Paul J. Hanson, Lin Meng, David Weston, and Natalie A. Griffiths
Biogeosciences, 18, 467–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-467-2021, 2021
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The Sphagnum mosses are the important species of a wetland ecosystem. To better represent the peatland ecosystem, we introduced the moss species to the land model component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing water content dynamics and nonvascular photosynthetic processes for moss. We tested the model against field observations and used the model to make projections of the site's carbon cycle under warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios.
Diego Santaren, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Frédéric Chevallier, Denis Siméoni, Bo Zheng, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 403–433, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-403-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric transport inversions with synthetic data are used to assess the potential of new satellite observations of atmospheric CO2 to monitor anthropogenic emissions from regions, cities and large industrial plants. The analysis, applied to a large ensemble of sources in western Europe, shows a strong dependence of the results on different characteristics of the spaceborne instrument, on the source emission budgets and spreads, and on the wind conditions.
Ivar R. van der Velde, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Houweling, Henk J. Eskes, J. Pepijn Veefkind, Tobias Borsdorff, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 597–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-597-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-597-2021, 2021
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This paper compares the relative atmospheric enhancements of CO and NO2 measured by the space-based instrument TROPOMI over different fire-prone ecosystems around the world. We find distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the ΔNO2 / ΔCO ratio that correspond to regional differences in combustion efficiency. This joint analysis provides a better understanding of regional-scale combustion characteristics and can help the fire modeling community to improve existing global emission inventories.
Anne-Marie Wefing, Núria Casacuberta, Marcus Christl, Nicolas Gruber, and John N. Smith
Ocean Sci., 17, 111–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-111-2021, 2021
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Atlantic Water that carries heat and anthropogenic carbon into the Arctic Ocean plays an important role in the Arctic sea-ice cover decline, but its pathways and travel times remain unclear. Here we used two radionuclides of anthropogenic origin (129I and 236U) to track Atlantic-derived waters along their way through the Arctic Ocean, estimating their travel times and mixing properties. Results help to understand how future changes in Atlantic Water properties will spread through the Arctic.
Derara Hailegeorgis, Zouhair Lachkar, Christoph Rieper, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 18, 303–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-303-2021, 2021
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Using a Lagrangian modeling approach, this study provides a quantitative analysis of water and nitrogen offshore transport in the Canary Current System. We investigate the timescales, reach and structure of offshore transport and demonstrate that the Canary upwelling is a key source of nutrients to the open North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings stress the need for improving the representation of the Canary system and other eastern boundary upwelling systems in global coarse-resolution models.
Adam Hastie, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Fabrice Papa, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, 2021
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We used a model of the Congo Basin to investigate the transfer of carbon (C) from land (vegetation and soils) to inland waters. We estimate that leaching of C to inland waters, emissions of CO2 from the water surface, and the export of C to the coast have all increased over the last century, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change. We predict that these trends may continue through the 21st century and call for long-term monitoring of these fluxes.
Leslie David, François-Marie Bréon, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 117–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-117-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-117-2021, 2021
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This paper shows that a neural network (NN) approach can be used to process spaceborne observations from the OCO-2 satellite and retrieve both surface pressure and atmospheric CO2 content. The accuracy evaluation indicates that the retrievals have an accuracy that is at least as good as those of the operational approach, which relies on complex algorithms and is computer intensive. The NN approach is therefore a promising alternative for the processing of CO2-monitoring missions.
Are Olsen, Nico Lange, Robert M. Key, Toste Tanhua, Henry C. Bittig, Alex Kozyr, Marta Álvarez, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Susan Becker, Peter J. Brown, Brendan R. Carter, Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, Richard A. Feely, Steven van Heuven, Mario Hoppema, Masao Ishii, Emil Jeansson, Sara Jutterström, Camilla S. Landa, Siv K. Lauvset, Patrick Michaelis, Akihiko Murata, Fiz F. Pérez, Benjamin Pfeil, Carsten Schirnick, Reiner Steinfeldt, Toru Suzuki, Bronte Tilbrook, Anton Velo, Rik Wanninkhof, and Ryan J. Woosley
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3653–3678, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3653-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3653-2020, 2020
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GLODAP is a data product for ocean inorganic carbon and related biogeochemical variables measured by chemical analysis of water bottle samples at scientific cruises. GLODAPv2.2020 is the second update of GLODAPv2 from 2016. The data that are included have been subjected to extensive quality control, including systematic evaluation of measurement biases. This version contains data from 946 hydrographic cruises covering the world's oceans from 1972 to 2019.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Léo Mahieu, Claire Lo Monaco, Nicolas Metzl, Jonathan Fin, and Claude Mignon
Ocean Sci., 16, 1559–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1559-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1559-2020, 2020
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We investigated the evolution of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) in the Antarctic Bottom Water in the southern Indian Ocean since 1978 based on observations from 16 reocupations. We found that the Cant and dissolved inorganic carbon increased at about the same rate over the 40-year period. However, the data also show large interannual variations and a surprising stability of Cant in the last decade, likely reflecting the variability of bottom water formation and circulation in the Southern Ocean.
James D. Lee, Will S. Drysdale, Doug P. Finch, Shona E. Wilde, and Paul I. Palmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15743–15759, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15743-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15743-2020, 2020
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Efforts to prevent the COVID-19 virus spreading across the globe have included travel restrictions and the closure of workplaces, leading to a significant drop in emissions of primary air pollutants. This provides for a unique opportunity to examine how air pollutant concentrations respond to an abrupt and prolonged reduction. We examine how NO2 and O3 have been affected at several urban measurement sites in the UK. We look at the change in NO2 compared to previous years and the effect on O3.
Robert J. Parker, Alex Webb, Hartmut Boesch, Peter Somkuti, Rocio Barrio Guillo, Antonio Di Noia, Nikoleta Kalaitzi, Jasdeep S. Anand, Peter Bergamaschi, Frederic Chevallier, Paul I. Palmer, Liang Feng, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Dietrich G. Feist, David W. T. Griffith, Frank Hase, Rigel Kivi, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Young-Suk Oh, Hirofumi Ohyama, Christof Petri, David F. Pollard, Coleen Roehl, Mahesh K. Sha, Kei Shiomi, Kimberly Strong, Ralf Sussmann, Yao Té, Voltaire A. Velazco, Thorsten Warneke, Paul O. Wennberg, and Debra Wunch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3383–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3383-2020, 2020
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This work presents the latest release of the University of Leicester GOSAT methane data and acts as the definitive description of this dataset. We detail the processing, validation and evaluation involved in producing these data and highlight its many applications. With now over a decade of global atmospheric methane observations, this dataset has helped, and will continue to help, us better understand the global methane budget and investigate how it may respond to a future changing climate.
Bettina K. Gier, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 17, 6115–6144, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6115-2020, 2020
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Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phases 5 and 6 are compared to a satellite data product of column-averaged CO2 mole fractions (XCO2). The previously believed discrepancy of the negative trend in seasonal cycle amplitude in the satellite product, which is not seen in in situ data nor in the models, is attributed to a sampling characteristic. Furthermore, CMIP6 models are shown to have made progress in reproducing the observed XCO2 time series compared to CMIP5.
Felix Leung, Karina Williams, Stephen Sitch, Amos P. K. Tai, Andy Wiltshire, Jemma Gornall, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Timothy Arkebauer, and David Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6201–6213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6201-2020, 2020
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Ground-level ozone (O3) is detrimental to plant productivity and crop yield. Currently, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) includes a representation of crops (JULES-crop). The parameters for O3 damage in soybean in JULES-crop were calibrated against photosynthesis measurements from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE). The result shows good performance for yield, and it helps contribute to understanding of the impacts of climate and air pollution on food security.
Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Toniazzo, Ada Gjermundsen, Lise Seland Graff, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Alok Kumar Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Alf Kirkevåg, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Ingo Bethke, Yuanchao Fan, Jan Griesfeller, Alf Grini, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Oskar Landgren, Johan Liakka, Kine Onsum Moseid, Aleksi Nummelin, Clemens Spensberger, Hui Tang, Zhongshi Zhang, Christoph Heinze, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020
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The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. The temperature and precipitation patterns has improved compared to NorESM1. The model reaches present-day warming levels to within 0.2 °C of observed temperature but with a delayed warming during the late 20th century. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period of 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.9 K.
Steven Pint, Gert Everaert, Hannelore Theetaert, Michiel B. Vandegehuchte, and Thanos Gkritzalis
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-442, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-442, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We calculated the air–sea CO2 flux in the southern North Sea for 2018 using high frequency data from the ICOS Station BE-FOS-Thornton Buoy. The area acted as a CO2 sink for this year but we also identified a seasonal variability of the CO2 flux during this period, both in terms of amplitude but also direction (source–sink). The data set and our analysis showcase the importance of high quality and high frequency data in order to constrain the air–sea CO2 flux in coastal dynamic environments.
Yilong Wang, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Franck Lespinas, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Yasjka Meijer, Armin Loescher, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Bo Zheng, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5813–5831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5813-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5813-2020, 2020
Jie Dong, Yangyang Fu, Jingjing Wang, Haifeng Tian, Shan Fu, Zheng Niu, Wei Han, Yi Zheng, Jianxi Huang, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3081–3095, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3081-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3081-2020, 2020
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For the first time, we produced a 30 m winter wheat distribution map in China for 3 years during 2016–2018. Validated with 33 776 survey samples, the map had perfect performance with an overall accuracy of 89.88 %. Moreover, the method can identify planting areas of winter wheat 3 months prior to harvest; that is valuable information for production predictions and is urgently necessary for policymakers to reduce economic loss and assess food security.
Tea Thum, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Jari Liski, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Tiina Markkanen, Julia Pongratz, Yukio Yoshida, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 17, 5721–5743, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5721-2020, 2020
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Global vegetation models are important tools in estimating the impacts of global climate change. The fate of soil carbon is of the upmost importance as its emissions will enhance the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. To evaluate the skill of global vegetation models to model the soil carbon and its responses to environmental factors, it is important to use different data sources. We evaluated two different soil carbon models by using atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
Anne L. Morée and Jörg Schwinger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2971–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2971-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2971-2020, 2020
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This dataset consists of eight variables needed in ocean modelling and is made to support modelers of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 years ago) ocean. The LGM is a time of specific interest for climate researchers. The data are based on the results of state-of-the-art climate models and are the best available estimate of these variables for the LGM. The dataset shows clear spatial patterns but large uncertainties and is presented in a way that facilitates applications in any ocean model.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
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We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Dagmar Hainbucher, Marta Álvarez, Blanca Astray Uceda, Giancarlo Bachi, Vanessa Cardin, Paolo Celentano, Spyros Chaikalis, Maria del Mar Chaves Montero, Giuseppe Civitarese, Noelia M. Fajar, Francois Fripiat, Lennart Gerke, Alexandra Gogou, Elisa F. Guallart, Birte Gülk, Abed El Rahman Hassoun, Nico Lange, Andrea Rochner, Chiara Santinelli, Tobias Steinhoff, Toste Tanhua, Lidia Urbini, Dimitrios Velaoras, Fabian Wolf, and Andreas Welsch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2747–2763, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2747-2020, 2020
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We report on data from an oceanographic cruise in the Mediterranean Sea (MSM72, March 2018). The main objective of the cruise was to contribute to the understanding of long-term changes and trends in physical and biogeochemical parameters, such as the anthropogenic carbon uptake, and further assess the hydrographical situation after the Eastern and Western Mediterranean Transients. Multidisciplinary measurements were conducted on a predominantly
zonal section throughout the Mediterranean Sea.
Natasha MacBean, Russell L. Scott, Joel A. Biederman, Catherine Ottlé, Nicolas Vuichard, Agnès Ducharne, Thomas Kolb, Sabina Dore, Marcy Litvak, and David J. P. Moore
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5203–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5203-2020, 2020
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
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To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Yuan Zhang, Ana Bastos, Fabienne Maignan, Daniel Goll, Olivier Boucher, Laurent Li, Alessandro Cescatti, Nicolas Vuichard, Xiuzhi Chen, Christof Ammann, M. Altaf Arain, T. Andrew Black, Bogdan Chojnicki, Tomomichi Kato, Ivan Mammarella, Leonardo Montagnani, Olivier Roupsard, Maria J. Sanz, Lukas Siebicke, Marek Urbaniak, Francesco Primo Vaccari, Georg Wohlfahrt, Will Woodgate, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5401–5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, 2020
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We improved the ORCHIDEE LSM by distinguishing diffuse and direct light in canopy and evaluated the new model with observations from 159 sites. Compared with the old model, the new model has better sunny GPP and reproduced the diffuse light fertilization effect observed at flux sites. Our simulations also indicate different mechanisms causing the observed GPP enhancement under cloudy conditions at different times. The new model has the potential to study large-scale impacts of aerosol changes.
Rachel L. Tunnicliffe, Anita L. Ganesan, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Nicola Gedney, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Jošt V. Lavrič, David Walter, Matthew Rigby, Stephan Henne, Dickon Young, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13041–13067, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13041-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13041-2020, 2020
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This study quantifies Brazil’s emissions of a potent atmospheric greenhouse gas, methane. This is in the field of atmospheric modelling and uses remotely sensed data and surface measurements of methane concentrations as well as an atmospheric transport model to interpret the data. Because of Brazil’s large emissions from wetlands, agriculture and biomass burning, these emissions affect global methane concentrations and thus are of global significance.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13011–13022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, 2020
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Decadal trends and variations in OH are critical for understanding atmospheric CH4 evolution. We quantify the impacts of OH trends and variations on the CH4 budget by conducting CH4 inversions on a decadal scale with an ensemble of OH fields. We find the negative OH anomalies due to enhanced fires can reduce the optimized CH4 emissions by up to 10 Tg yr−1 during El Niño years and the positive OH trend from 1986 to 2010 results in a ∼ 23 Tg yr−1 additional increase in optimized CH4 emissions.
J. Doblas, A. Carneiro, Y. Shimabukuro, S. Sant’Anna, and L. Aragão
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3-W12-2020, 493–498, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W12-2020-493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W12-2020-493-2020, 2020
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
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Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
Ruqian Miao, Qi Chen, Yan Zheng, Xi Cheng, Yele Sun, Paul I. Palmer, Manish Shrivastava, Jianping Guo, Qiang Zhang, Yuhan Liu, Zhaofeng Tan, Xuefei Ma, Shiyi Chen, Limin Zeng, Keding Lu, and Yuanhang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12265–12284, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12265-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12265-2020, 2020
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In this study we evaluated the model performances for simulating secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and organic aerosol (OA) in PM2.5 in China against comprehensive datasets. The potential biases from factors related to meteorology, emission, chemistry, and atmospheric removal are systematically investigated. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of modeling PM2.5, which is important for studies on the effectiveness of emission control strategies.
Guillaume Monteil, Grégoire Broquet, Marko Scholze, Matthew Lang, Ute Karstens, Christoph Gerbig, Frank-Thomas Koch, Naomi E. Smith, Rona L. Thompson, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Emily White, Antoon Meesters, Philippe Ciais, Anita L. Ganesan, Alistair Manning, Michael Mischurow, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Jerôme Tarniewicz, Matt Rigby, Christian Rödenbeck, Alex Vermeulen, and Evie M. Walton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12063–12091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, 2020
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The paper presents the first results from the EUROCOM project, a regional atmospheric inversion intercomparison exercise involving six European research groups. It aims to produce an estimate of the net carbon flux between the European terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere for the period 2006–2015, based on constraints provided by observed CO2 concentrations and using inverse modelling techniques. The use of six different models enables us to investigate the robustness of the results.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Peter Landschützer, Goulven G. Laruelle, Alizee Roobaert, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2537–2553, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2537-2020, 2020
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In recent years, multiple estimates of the global air–sea CO2 flux emerged from upscaling shipboard pCO2 measurements. They are however limited to the open-ocean domain and do not consider the coastal ocean, i.e. a significant marine sink for CO2. We build towards an integrated pCO2 product that combines both the open-ocean and coastal-ocean domain and focus on the evaluation of the common overlap area of these products and how well the aquatic continuum is represented in the new climatology.
Robbie M. Andrew
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2411–2421, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2411-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2411-2020, 2020
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India is the world's third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide and is developing rapidly. While India has pledged an emissions-intensity reduction as its contribution to the Paris Agreement, the country does not regularly report emissions statistics, making tracking progress difficult. Here I compile monthly energy and industrial activity data, allowing for the production of estimates of India's CO2 emissions by month and calendar year.
Pengfei Han, Ning Zeng, Tom Oda, Xiaohui Lin, Monica Crippa, Dabo Guan, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Xiaolin Ma, Zhu Liu, Yuli Shan, Shu Tao, Haikun Wang, Rong Wang, Lin Wu, Xiao Yun, Qiang Zhang, Fang Zhao, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11371–11385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11371-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11371-2020, 2020
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An accurate estimation of China’s fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (FFCO2) is significant for quantification of carbon budget and emissions reductions towards the Paris Agreement goals. Here we assessed 9 global and regional inventories. Our findings highlight the significance of using locally measured coal emission factors. We call on the enhancement of physical measurements for validation and provide comprehensive information for inventory, monitoring, modeling, assimilation, and reducing emissions.
Tokuta Yokohata, Tsuguki Kinoshita, Gen Sakurai, Yadu Pokhrel, Akihiko Ito, Masashi Okada, Yusuke Satoh, Etsushi Kato, Tomoko Nitta, Shinichiro Fujimori, Farshid Felfelani, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Toshichika Iizumi, Motoki Nishimori, Naota Hanasaki, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yoshiki Yamagata, and Seita Emori
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4713–4747, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020, 2020
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The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balances, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land-use decision-making model based on economic activities. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand.
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Steve R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and Lars Nieradzik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10937–10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, 2020
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Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas which contributes to anthropogenic climate change; however, the effect of human emissions is uncertain because pre-industrial ozone concentrations are not well understood. We use revised inventories of pre-industrial natural emissions to estimate the human contribution to changes in tropospheric ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is up to 34 % lower when using improved pre-industrial biomass burning and vegetation emissions.
Arthur P. K. Argles, Jonathan R. Moore, Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Anna B. Harper, Chris D. Jones, and Peter M. Cox
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4067–4089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020, 2020
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The Robust Ecosystem Demography (RED) model simulates cohorts of vegetation through mass classes. RED establishes a framework for representing demographic changes through competition, growth, and mortality across the size distribution of a forest. The steady state of the model can be solved analytically, enabling initialization. When driven by mean growth rates from a land-surface model, RED is able to fit the observed global vegetation map, giving a map of implicit mortality rates.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Erik van Schaik, Maurits L. Kooreman, Piet Stammes, L. Gijsbert Tilstra, Olaf N. E. Tuinder, Abram F. J. Sanders, Willem W. Verstraeten, Rüdiger Lang, Alessandra Cacciari, Joanna Joiner, Wouter Peters, and K. Folkert Boersma
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4295–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4295-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-4295-2020, 2020
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With our improved algorithm we have generated a stable, long-term dataset of fluorescence measurements from the GOME-2A satellite instrument. In this study we determined a correction for the degradation of GOME-2A in orbit and applied this correction along with other improvements to our SIFTER v2 retrieval algorithm. The result is a coherent dataset of daily and monthly averaged fluorescence values for the period 2007–2018 to track worldwide changes in photosynthetic activity by vegetation.
Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew J. Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul B. Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray H. J. Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020
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This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of so-called SSP scenarios (the successors of the IPCC SRES and previous representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios). The projected CO2 concentrations range from 350 ppm for low-emission scenarios by 2150 to more than 2000 ppm under the high-emission scenarios. We also provide concentrations, latitudinal gradients, and seasonality for most of the other 42 considered GHGs.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Ray L. Langenfelds, Michel Ramonet, Doug Worthy, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9525–9546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9525-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9525-2020, 2020
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The hydroxyl radical (OH), which is the dominant sink of methane (CH4), plays a key role in closing the global methane budget. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical can influence top-down estimates of CH4 emissions based on 4D Bayesian inversions with different OH fields and the same surface observations. We show that uncertainties in CH4 emissions driven by different OH fields are comparable to the uncertainties given by current bottom-up and top-down estimations.
Thomas Gasser, Léa Crepin, Yann Quilcaille, Richard A. Houghton, Philippe Ciais, and Michael Obersteiner
Biogeosciences, 17, 4075–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4075-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4075-2020, 2020
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We combine several lines of evidence to provide a robust estimate of historical CO2 emissions from land use change. Our novel approach leads to reduced uncertainty and identifies key remaining sources of uncertainty and discrepancy.
We also quantify the carbon removal by natural ecosystems that would have occurred if these ecosystems had not been destroyed (mostly via deforestation). Over the last decade, this foregone carbon sink amounted to about 50 % of the actual emissions.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
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The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Daniel Broullón, Fiz F. Pérez, Antón Velo, Mario Hoppema, Are Olsen, Taro Takahashi, Robert M. Key, Toste Tanhua, J. Magdalena Santana-Casiano, and Alex Kozyr
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1725–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1725-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1725-2020, 2020
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This work offers a vision of the global ocean regarding the carbon cycle and the implications of ocean acidification through a climatology of a changing variable in the context of climate change: total dissolved inorganic carbon. The climatology was designed through artificial intelligence techniques to represent the mean state of the present ocean. It is very useful to introduce in models to evaluate the state of the ocean from different perspectives.
J. Doblas, A. Carneiro, Y. Shimabukuro, S. Sant’Anna, L. Aragão, and F. R. S. Pereira
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-3-2020, 89–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2020-89-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-3-2020-89-2020, 2020
Getachew Agmuas Adnew, Thijs L. Pons, Gerbrand Koren, Wouter Peters, and Thomas Röckmann
Biogeosciences, 17, 3903–3922, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3903-2020, 2020
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We measured the effect of photosynthesis, the largest flux in the carbon cycle, on the triple oxygen isotope composition of atmospheric CO2 at the leaf level during gas exchange using three plant species. The main factors that limit the impact of land vegetation on the triple oxygen isotope composition of atmospheric CO2 are identified, characterized and discussed. The effect of photosynthesis on the isotopic composition of CO2 is commonly quantified as discrimination (ΔA).
Shilpa Gahlot, Tzu-Shun Lin, Atul K. Jain, Somnath Baidya Roy, Vinay K. Sehgal, and Rajkumar Dhakar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 641–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-641-2020, 2020
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Spring wheat, a staple for millions of people in India and the world, is vulnerable to changing environmental and management factors. Using a new spring wheat model, we find that over the 1980–2016 period elevated CO2 levels, irrigation, and nitrogen fertilizers led to an increase of 30 %, 12 %, and 15 % in countrywide production, respectively. In contrast, rising temperatures have reduced production by 18 %. These effects vary across the country, thereby affecting production at regional scales.
Xianfeng Liu, Xiaoming Feng, Philippe Ciais, and Bojie Fu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3676, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3663-2020, 2020
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Freshwater availability is crucial for sustainable development across the Asian and eastern European regions. Our results indicate widespread decline in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the region during 2002–2017, primarily due to the intensive over-extraction of groundwater and warmth-induced surface water loss. The findings provide insights into changes in TWS and its components over the Asian and eastern European regions, where there is growing demand for food grains and water supplies.
Pierre St-Laurent, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Raymond G. Najjar, Elizabeth H. Shadwick, Hanqin Tian, and Yuanzhi Yao
Biogeosciences, 17, 3779–3796, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3779-2020, 2020
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Over the past century, estuaries have experienced global (atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature) and regional changes (river inputs, land use), but their relative impact remains poorly known. In the Chesapeake Bay, we find that global and regional changes have worked together to enhance how much atmospheric CO2 is taken up by the estuary. The increased uptake is roughly equally due to the global and regional changes, providing crucial perspective for managers of the bay's watershed.
Bo Zheng, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Yilong Wang, Jinghui Lian, and Yuanhong Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8501–8510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8501-2020, 2020
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The Paris Climate Agreement requires all parties to report CO2 emissions regularly. Given the self-reporting nature of this system, it is critical to evaluate the emission reports with independent observation systems. Here we present the direct observations of city CO2 plumes from space and the quantification of CO2 emissions from these observations over the largest emitter country China. The emissions from 46 hot-spot regions representing 13 % of China's total emissions can be well constrained.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
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Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith P. Shine, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Guy Brasseur, Natalia Sudarchikova, Idir Bouarar, Olivier Boucher, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1649–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, 2020
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Quantifying the imbalance in the Earth's energy budget caused by human activities is important to understand and predict climate changes. This study presents new estimates of the imbalance caused by changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, and particles of pollution. Over the period 2003–2017, the overall imbalance has been positive, indicating that the climate system has gained energy and will warm further.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
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Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Lei Ma, George C. Hurtt, Louise P. Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Julia Pongratz, Steve Frolking, Elke Stehfest, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Donal O'Leary, and Jonathan C. Doelman
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3203–3220, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3203-2020, 2020
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Earth system models require information on historical land cover change. We present transition rules to generate land cover change from newly developed land use dataset (Land-use Harmonization, LUH2). The resulting forest cover, vegetation carbon, and emissions from land use and land cover change are simulated and evaluated against remote sensing data and other studies. The rules can guide the incorporation of land-cover information within earth system models for CMIP6.
Dmitry A. Belikov, Naoko Saitoh, Prabir K. Patra, and Naveen Chandra
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2020-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2020-101, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Simon Jones, Lucy Rowland, Peter Cox, Deborah Hemming, Andy Wiltshire, Karina Williams, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Junjie Liu, Antonio C. L. da Costa, Patrick Meir, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Anna B. Harper
Biogeosciences, 17, 3589–3612, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, 2020
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Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are an important set of molecules that help plants to grow and respire when photosynthesis is restricted by extreme climate events. In this paper we present a simple model of NSC storage and assess the effect that it has on simulations of vegetation at the ecosystem scale. Our model has the potential to significantly change predictions of plant behaviour in global vegetation models, which would have large implications for predictions of the future climate.
Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sebastian Lienert, Jurek Müller, Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, I. Colin Prentice, Bette Otto-Bliesner, and Zhengyu Liu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3511–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3511-2020, 2020
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Results of the first globally resolved simulations of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling and N2O emissions over the past 21 000 years are compared with reconstructed N2O emissions. Modelled and reconstructed emissions increased strongly during past abrupt warming events. This evidence appears consistent with a dynamic response of biological N fixation to increasing N demand by ecosystems, thereby reducing N limitation of plant productivity and supporting a land sink for atmospheric CO2.
Pierre Sepulchre, Arnaud Caubel, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Pascale Braconnot, Patrick Brockmann, Anne Cozic, Yannick Donnadieu, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Victor Estella-Perez, Christian Ethé, Frédéric Fluteau, Marie-Alice Foujols, Guillaume Gastineau, Josefine Ghattas, Didier Hauglustaine, Frédéric Hourdin, Masa Kageyama, Myriam Khodri, Olivier Marti, Yann Meurdesoif, Juliette Mignot, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Jérôme Servonnat, Didier Swingedouw, Sophie Szopa, and Delphine Tardif
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3011–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, 2020
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Our paper describes IPSL-CM5A2, an Earth system model that can be integrated for long (several thousands of years) climate simulations. We describe the technical aspects, assess the model computing performance and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model, by comparing pre-industrial and historical runs to the previous-generation model simulations and to observations. We also present a Cretaceous simulation as a case study to show how the model simulates deep-time paleoclimates.
Rik Wanninkhof, Denis Pierrot, Kevin Sullivan, Leticia Barbero, and Joaquin Triñanes
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1489–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1489-2020, 2020
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This paper describes a 17-year dataset of over a million data points of automated partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) measurements on large luxury cruise ships of Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines (RCCL). These data are used to provide trends of ocean acidification and air–sea CO2 fluxes. The effort was possible through a unique continuing industry (RCCL), academic (University of Miami) and governmental (NOAA) partnership.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
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We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Robbie M. Andrew
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1437–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1437-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1437-2020, 2020
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There are now several global datasets with estimates of global CO2 emissions from fossil sources, but the totals from these differ. Sometimes the range of these estimates has been used to indicate uncertainty in global emissions. In this paper I discuss the reasons why these datasets differ, particularly their different system boundaries: which emissions sources are included and which are omitted. Analysis is both qualitative and quantitative.
Joe R. Melton, Vivek K. Arora, Eduard Wisernig-Cojoc, Christian Seiler, Matthew Fortier, Ed Chan, and Lina Teckentrup
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2825–2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2825-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2825-2020, 2020
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We transitioned the CLASS-CTEM land surface model to an open-source community model format by modernizing the code base to make the model easier to use and understand, providing a complete software environment to run the model within, developing a benchmarking suite for model evaluation, and creating an infrastructure to support community involvement. The new model, the Canadian Land Surface Scheme including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC), is now available for the community to use and develop.
Ingrid Super, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Michiel K. van der Molen, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, and Wouter Peters
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2695–2721, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2695-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2695-2020, 2020
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Understanding urban CO2 fluxes is increasingly important to support emission reduction policies. In this work we extended an existing framework for emission verification to increase its suitability for urban areas and source-sector-based decision-making by using a dynamic emission model. We find that the dynamic emission model provides a better understanding of emissions at small scales and their uncertainties. By including co-emitted species, emission can be related to specific source sectors.
Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Stuart J. Davies, Matteo Detto, Michael C. Dietze, Boris Faybishenko, Jennifer Holm, Maoyi Huang, Marlies Kovenock, Lara M. Kueppers, Gregory Lemieux, Elias Massoud, Nathan G. McDowell, Helene C. Muller-Landau, Jessica F. Needham, Richard J. Norby, Thomas Powell, Alistair Rogers, Shawn P. Serbin, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Charuleka Varadharajan, Anthony P. Walker, S. Joseph Wright, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, 2020
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Tropical forests play a crucial role in governing climate feedbacks, and are incredibly diverse ecosystems, yet most Earth system models do not take into account the diversity of plant traits in these forests and how this diversity may govern feedbacks. We present an approach to represent diverse competing plant types within Earth system models, test this approach at a tropical forest site, and explore how the representation of disturbance and competition governs traits of the forest community.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Christopher P. O. Reyer, Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez, Klara Dolos, Florian Hartig, Ylva Hauf, Matthias Noack, Petra Lasch-Born, Thomas Rötzer, Hans Pretzsch, Henning Meesenburg, Stefan Fleck, Markus Wagner, Andreas Bolte, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Pasi Kolari, Annikki Mäkelä, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Jukka Pumpanen, Alessio Collalti, Carlo Trotta, Giorgio Matteucci, Ettore D'Andrea, Lenka Foltýnová, Jan Krejza, Andreas Ibrom, Kim Pilegaard, Denis Loustau, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Paul Berbigier, Delphine Picart, Sébastien Lafont, Michael Dietze, David Cameron, Massimo Vieno, Hanqin Tian, Alicia Palacios-Orueta, Victor Cicuendez, Laura Recuero, Klaus Wiese, Matthias Büchner, Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Hyungjun Kim, Joanna A. Horemans, Friedrich Bohn, Jörg Steinkamp, Alexander Chikalanov, Graham P. Weedon, Justin Sheffield, Flurin Babst, Iliusi Vega del Valle, Felicitas Suckow, Simon Martel, Mats Mahnken, Martin Gutsch, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1295–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, 2020
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Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database provides a wide range of empirical data to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale to support systematic model intercomparisons and model development in Europe.
Marie Laugié, Yannick Donnadieu, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, J. A. Mattias Green, Laurent Bopp, and François Raisson
Clim. Past, 16, 953–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-953-2020, 2020
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To quantify the impact of major climate forcings on the Cretaceous climate, we use Earth system modelling to progressively reconstruct the Cretaceous state by changing boundary conditions one by one. Between the preindustrial and the Cretaceous simulations, the model simulates a global warming of more than 11°C. The study confirms the primary control exerted by atmospheric CO2 on atmospheric temperatures. Palaeogeographic changes represent the second major contributor to the warming.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Richard Betts, Ben Booth, Peter Challenor, Peter Good, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2487–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, 2020
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In the climate model FAMOUS, matching the modelled Amazon rainforest to observations required different land surface parameter settings than for other forests. It was unclear if this discrepancy was due to a bias in the modelled climate or an error in the land surface component of the model. Correcting the climate of the model with a statistical model corrects the simulation of the Amazon forest, suggesting that the land surface component of the model is not the source of the discrepancy.
Jerry F. Tjiputra, Jörg Schwinger, Mats Bentsen, Anne L. Morée, Shuang Gao, Ingo Bethke, Christoph Heinze, Nadine Goris, Alok Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2393–2431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2393-2020, 2020
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Ocean biogeochemistry plays an important role in determining the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Earth system models, which are regularly used to study and project future climate change, generally include an ocean biogeochemistry component. Prior to their application, such models are rigorously validated against real-world observations. In this study, we evaluate the ability of the ocean biogeochemistry in the Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 to simulate various datasets.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, Munir Hoffmann, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Marian Koch, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Xuhui Wang, Karina Williams, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2315–2336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, 2020
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Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Crop models, which represent plant biology, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate, farmer choices, and new agricultural geographies. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to evaluate and improve crop models.
Charel Wohl, Ian Brown, Vassilis Kitidis, Anna E. Jones, William T. Sturges, Philip D. Nightingale, and Mingxi Yang
Biogeosciences, 17, 2593–2619, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2593-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2593-2020, 2020
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The oceans represent a poorly understood source of organic carbon to the atmosphere. In this paper, we present ship-based measurements of specific compounds in ambient air and seawater of the Southern Ocean. We present fluxes of these gases between air and sea at very high resolution. The data also contain evidence for day and night variations in some of these compounds. These measurements can be used to better understand the role of the Southern Ocean in the cycling of these compounds.
Coraline Leseurre, Claire Lo Monaco, Gilles Reverdin, Nicolas Metzl, Jonathan Fin, Solveig Olafsdottir, and Virginie Racapé
Biogeosciences, 17, 2553–2577, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2553-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2553-2020, 2020
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In this study, we investigate the evolution of CO2 uptake and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic Subpolar surface water. Our results show an important reduction in the capacity of the ocean to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere (1993–2007), due to a rapid increase in the fCO2 and associated with a rapid decrease in pH. Conversely, data obtained during the last decade (2008–2017) show a stagnation of fCO2 (increasing the ocean sink for CO2) and pH.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Philippe Ciais, Francesco N. Tubiello, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Adrian Leip, Gema Carmona-Garcia, Wilfried Winiwarter, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Dirk Günther, Efisio Solazzo, Anja Kiesow, Ana Bastos, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Giulia Conchedda, Roberto Pilli, Robbie M. Andrew, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, and Albertus J. Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 961–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, 2020
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up GHG anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the EU28. The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models, aiming at reconciling GHG budgets with official country-level UNFCCC inventories. We provide comprehensive emission assessments in support to policy, facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Barbara Marcolla, Mirco Migliavacca, Christian Rödenbeck, and Alessandro Cescatti
Biogeosciences, 17, 2365–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2365-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2365-2020, 2020
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This work investigates the sensitivity of terrestrial CO2 fluxes to climate drivers. We observed that CO2 flux is mostly controlled by temperature during the growing season and by radiation off season. We also observe that radiation importance is increasing over time while sensitivity to temperature is decreasing in Eurasia. Ultimately this analysis shows that ecosystem response to climate is changing, with potential repercussions for future terrestrial sink and land role in climate mitigation.
Damiano Righetti, Meike Vogt, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Michael D. Guiry, and Nicolas Gruber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 907–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-907-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-907-2020, 2020
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Phytoplankton sustain marine life, as they are the principal primary producers in the global ocean. Despite their ecological importance, their distribution and diversity patterns are poorly known, mostly due to data limitations. We present a global dataset that synthesizes over 1.3 million occurrences of phytoplankton from public archives. It is easily extendable. This dataset can be used to characterize phytoplankton distribution and diversity in current and future oceans.
Sam S. Rabin, Peter Alexander, Roslyn Henry, Peter Anthoni, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Mark Rounsevell, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 357–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, 2020
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We modeled how agricultural performance and demand will shift as a result of climate change and population growth, and how the resulting adaptations will affect aspects of the Earth system upon which humanity depends. We found that the impacts of land use and management can have stronger impacts than climate change on some such
ecosystem services. The overall impacts are strongest in future scenarios with more severe climate change, high population growth, and/or resource-intensive lifestyles.
Yidi Xu, Le Yu, Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Yuqi Cheng, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 847–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-847-2020, 2020
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The first annual oil palm area dataset (AOPD) for Malaysia and Indonesia from 2001 to 2016 was produced by integrating multiple satellite datasets and a change-detection algorithm (BFAST). This dataset reveals that oil palm plantations have expanded from 5.69 to 19.05 M ha in the two countries during the past 16 years. The AOPD is useful in understanding the deforestation process in Southeast Asia and may serve as land-use change inputs in dynamic global vegetation models.
Didier G. Leibovici, Shaun Quegan, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Maria Val Martin, Mathieu Guimberteau, Arsène Druel, Dan Zhu, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences, 17, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, 2020
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Analysing the impact of environmental changes due to climate change, e.g. geographical spread of climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) and agriculture crop modelling, may require land surface modelling (LSM) to predict future land surface conditions. There are multiple LSMs to choose from. The paper proposes a multivariate spatio-temporal data science method to understand the inherent uncertainties in four LSMs and the variations between them in Nordic areas for the net primary production.
Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 17, 1765–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, 2020
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Marine micro-algae bind carbon dioxide, CO2. During their decay, snowflake-like aggregates form that sink, remineralize and transport organically bound CO2 to depth; this is referred to as the biological carbon pump. In our model study, we elucidate how variable aggregate composition impacts the global pattern of vertical carbon fluxes. Our mechanistic model approach advances the representation of the global biological carbon pump and promotes a more realistic projection under climate change.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren, Alexander Popp, Almut Arneth, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Jonathan Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Anna B. Harper, Taejin Park, David Makowski, Petr Havlik, Michael Obersteiner, Jingmeng Wang, Andreas Krause, and Wenfeng Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 789–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, 2020
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We generated spatially explicit bioenergy crop yields based on field measurements with climate, soil condition and remote-sensing variables as explanatory variables and the machine-learning method. We further compared our yield maps with the maps from three integrated assessment models (IAMs; IMAGE, MAgPIE and GLOBIOM) and found that the median yields in our maps are > 50 % higher than those in the IAM maps.
Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, 2020
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We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
Tzu-Shun Lin, Yang Song, Atul K. Jain, Peter Lawrence, and Haroon S. Kheshgi
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-68, 2020
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ISAM model was used to estimate soybean and maize crop yields over 1901–2100 driven by changes in environmental factors and management factors. Over the 20th century, each of these factors contributes to the increase in global crop yield with increasing nitrogen fertilizer application the strongest of these drivers for maize and increasing [CO2] the strongest for soybean. Over the 21st century, changing climate drives yield lower, while rising [CO2] drives yield higher for both crops.
Shufen Pan, Naiqing Pan, Hanqin Tian, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Hao Shi, Vivek K. Arora, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Catherine Ottlé, Benjamin Poulter, Sönke Zaehle, and Steven W. Running
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, 2020
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Evapotranspiration (ET) links global water, carbon and energy cycles. We used 4 remote sensing models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 land surface models to analyze the changes in global terrestrial ET. These three categories of approaches agreed well in terms of ET intensity. For 1982–2011, all models showed that Earth greening enhanced terrestrial ET. The small interannual variability of global terrestrial ET suggests it has a potential planetary boundary of around 600 mm yr-1.
Cheng Gong, Yadong Lei, Yimian Ma, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3841–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3841-2020, 2020
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We evaluate ozone–vegetation feedback using a fully coupled chemistry–carbon–climate global model (ModelE2-YIBs). Ozone damage to photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and isoprene emissions parameterized by different schemes and sensitivities is jointly considered. In general, surface ozone concentrations are increased due to ozone–vegetation interactions, especially over the regions with a high ambient ozone level such as the eastern US, eastern China, and western Europe.
Fabian A. Gomez, Rik Wanninkhof, Leticia Barbero, Sang-Ki Lee, and Frank J. Hernandez Jr.
Biogeosciences, 17, 1685–1700, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1685-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1685-2020, 2020
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We use a numerical model to infer annual changes of surface carbon chemistry in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The main seasonality drivers of partial pressure of carbon dioxide and aragonite saturation state from the model are temperature and river runoff. The GoM basin is a carbon sink in winter–spring and carbon source in summer–fall, but uptake prevails near the Mississippi Delta year-round due to high biological production. Our model results show good correspondence with observational studies.
Victoria Naipal, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, and Yilong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1201–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1201-2020, 2020
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In this study we present the Carbon Erosion DYNAMics model (CE-DYNAM) that links sediment dynamics resulting from water erosion with the soil carbon cycle along a cascade of hillslopes, floodplains, and rivers. The model can simulate the removal of soil and carbon from eroding areas and their destination at regional scale. We calibrated and validated the model for the Rhine catchment, and we show that soil erosion is a potential large net carbon sink over the period 1850–2005.
Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabian Gans, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Philipp Köhler, Kazuhito Ichii, Atul K. Jain, Junzhi Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Jacob A. Nelson, Michael O'Sullivan, Martijn Pallandt, Dario Papale, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Christian Rödenbeck, Stephen Sitch, Gianluca Tramontana, Anthony Walker, Ulrich Weber, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020
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We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystem’s mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.
Jan D. Zika, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Andrew J. S. Meijers, Alberto C. Naveira-Garabato, Andrew J. Watson, Marie-Jose Messias, and Brian A. King
Ocean Sci., 16, 323–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-323-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-323-2020, 2020
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The ocean can regulate climate by distributing heat and carbon dioxide into its interior. This work has resulted from a major experiment aimed at understanding how that distribution occurs. In the experiment an artificial tracer was released into the ocean. After release the tracer was tracked as it was distorted by ocean currents. Using novel methods we reveal how the tracer's distortions follow the movement of the underlying water masses in the ocean and we estimate the rate at which it mixes.
Yadong Lei, Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Cheng Gong, and Lin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1137–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1137-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1137-2020, 2020
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We coupled a dynamic vegetation model YIBs with the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to develop a new tool for studying interactions between atmospheric chemistry and biosphere. Within this framework, leaf area index and stomatal conductance are predicted for chemical simulations. In turn, surface ozone causes negative impacts to plant growth and the consequent dry deposition. Such interactions are important for air pollution prediction but ignored in most of current chemical models.
Binghao Jia, Xin Luo, Ximing Cai, Atul Jain, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Zhenghui Xie, Ning Zeng, Jiafu Mao, Xiaoying Shi, Akihiko Ito, Yaxing Wei, Hanqin Tian, Benjamin Poulter, Dan Hayes, and Kevin Schaefer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 235–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020, 2020
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We quantitatively examined the relative contributions of climate change, land
use and land cover change, and elevated CO2 to interannual variations and seasonal cycle amplitude of gross primary productivity (GPP) in China based on multi-model ensemble simulations. The contributions of major subregions to the temporal change in China's total GPP are also presented. This work may help us better understand GPP spatiotemporal patterns and their responses to regional changes and human activities.
Lin Yu, Bernhard Ahrens, Thomas Wutzler, Marion Schrumpf, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 783–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-783-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-783-2020, 2020
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In this paper, we have developed a new soil organic carbon model that describes the formation and turnover of soil organic matter in a more mechanistic manner. With this model, we are able to better represent how microorganisms and nutrient processes influence the below-ground carbon storage and better explain some observed features of soil organic matter. We hope this model can increase our confidence in predictions of future climate change, particularly on how soil can mitigate the process.
Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Huijun Wang, Tianyi Zhang, Nadine Unger, Stephen Sitch, Zhaozhong Feng, and Jia Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2353–2366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2353-2020, 2020
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We explore ecosystem responses in China to 1.5 °C global warming under stabilized versus transient pathways. Remarkably, GPP shows 30 % higher enhancement in the stabilized than the transient pathway because of the lower ozone (smaller damages to photosynthesis) and fewer aerosols (higher light availability) in the former pathway. Our analyses suggest that an associated reduction of CO2 and pollution emissions brings more benefits to ecosystems in China via 1.5 °C global warming.
Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Pierre Regnier, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 507–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, 2020
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In this second part of the study, we performed simulations of the carbon and water budget of the Lena catchment with the land surface model ORCHIDEE MICT-LEAK, enabled to simulate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production in soils and its transport and fate in high-latitude inland waters. We compare simulations using this model to existing data sources to show that it is capable of reproducing dissolved carbon fluxes of potentially great importance for the future of the global permafrost.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, John M. Edwards, Nicola Gedney, Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Hartley, Margaret A. Hendry, Eddy Robertson, and Kerry Smout-Day
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 483–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-483-2020, 2020
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We present the Global Land (GL) configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES-GL7 can be used to simulate the exchange of heat, water and momentum over land and is therefore applicable for helping understand past and future changes, and forms the land component of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 climate model. The configuration is freely available subject to licence restrictions.
Leyang Feng, Steven J. Smith, Caleb Braun, Monica Crippa, Matthew J. Gidden, Rachel Hoesly, Zbigniew Klimont, Margreet van Marle, Maarten van den Berg, and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 461–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-461-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-461-2020, 2020
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We describe the methods used for generating gridded emission datasets produced for use by the modeling community, particularly for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The development of three sets of gridded data (historical open burning, historical anthropogenic, and future scenarios) was coordinated to produce consistent data over 1750–2100. We discuss the methodologies used to produce these data along with limitations and potential for future work.
Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Kim Naudts, and Julia Pongratz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 185–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-185-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-185-2020, 2020
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Models need to account for forest age structures when investigating land use influences on land–atmosphere feedbacks. We present a consolidated scheme to introduce forest age classes, combining age-dependent simulations of important processes with the possibility to trace forest age, and describe its implementation in JSBACH4, the land surface model of the ICON Earth system model. We evaluate simulations with and without age classes demonstrating the benefit of forest age classes in JSBACH4.
Yufei Zou, Yuhang Wang, Yun Qian, Hanqin Tian, Jia Yang, and Ernesto Alvarado
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 995–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-995-2020, 2020
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Fire is a natural phenomenon that has a long history of interactions with the environment and human activity. The complex interactions were less represented in previous fire and climate models. Here we use a new global fire model with improved modeling capability to study how fire responds and contributes to climate change. The modeling results show increased global fire activity in the future driven by climate change, which in turn modulates local and remote climate and ecosystems.
Philippe Massicotte, Rémi Amiraux, Marie-Pier Amyot, Philippe Archambault, Mathieu Ardyna, Laurent Arnaud, Lise Artigue, Cyril Aubry, Pierre Ayotte, Guislain Bécu, Simon Bélanger, Ronald Benner, Henry C. Bittig, Annick Bricaud, Éric Brossier, Flavienne Bruyant, Laurent Chauvaud, Debra Christiansen-Stowe, Hervé Claustre, Véronique Cornet-Barthaux, Pierre Coupel, Christine Cox, Aurelie Delaforge, Thibaud Dezutter, Céline Dimier, Florent Domine, Francis Dufour, Christiane Dufresne, Dany Dumont, Jens Ehn, Brent Else, Joannie Ferland, Marie-Hélène Forget, Louis Fortier, Martí Galí, Virginie Galindo, Morgane Gallinari, Nicole Garcia, Catherine Gérikas Ribeiro, Margaux Gourdal, Priscilla Gourvil, Clemence Goyens, Pierre-Luc Grondin, Pascal Guillot, Caroline Guilmette, Marie-Noëlle Houssais, Fabien Joux, Léo Lacour, Thomas Lacour, Augustin Lafond, José Lagunas, Catherine Lalande, Julien Laliberté, Simon Lambert-Girard, Jade Larivière, Johann Lavaud, Anita LeBaron, Karine Leblanc, Florence Le Gall, Justine Legras, Mélanie Lemire, Maurice Levasseur, Edouard Leymarie, Aude Leynaert, Adriana Lopes dos Santos, Antonio Lourenço, David Mah, Claudie Marec, Dominique Marie, Nicolas Martin, Constance Marty, Sabine Marty, Guillaume Massé, Atsushi Matsuoka, Lisa Matthes, Brivaela Moriceau, Pierre-Emmanuel Muller, Christopher-John Mundy, Griet Neukermans, Laurent Oziel, Christos Panagiotopoulos, Jean-Jacques Pangrazi, Ghislain Picard, Marc Picheral, France Pinczon du Sel, Nicole Pogorzelec, Ian Probert, Bernard Quéguiner, Patrick Raimbault, Joséphine Ras, Eric Rehm, Erin Reimer, Jean-François Rontani, Søren Rysgaard, Blanche Saint-Béat, Makoto Sampei, Julie Sansoulet, Catherine Schmechtig, Sabine Schmidt, Richard Sempéré, Caroline Sévigny, Yuan Shen, Margot Tragin, Jean-Éric Tremblay, Daniel Vaulot, Gauthier Verin, Frédéric Vivier, Anda Vladoiu, Jeremy Whitehead, and Marcel Babin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 151–176, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-151-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-151-2020, 2020
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The Green Edge initiative was developed to understand the processes controlling the primary productivity and the fate of organic matter produced during the Arctic spring bloom (PSB). In this article, we present an overview of an extensive and comprehensive dataset acquired during two expeditions conducted in 2015 and 2016 on landfast ice southeast of Qikiqtarjuaq Island in Baffin Bay.
Fabrice Lacroix, Tatiana Ilyina, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 17, 55–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, 2020
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Contributions of rivers to the oceanic cycling of carbon have been poorly represented in global models until now. Here, we assess the long–term implications of preindustrial riverine loads in the ocean in a novel framework which estimates the loads through a hierarchy of weathering and land–ocean export models. We investigate their impacts for the oceanic biological production and air–sea carbon flux. Finally, we assess the potential incorporation of the framework in an Earth system model.
Mark F. Lunt, Paul I. Palmer, Liang Feng, Christopher M. Taylor, Hartmut Boesch, and Robert J. Parker
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14721–14740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14721-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14721-2019, 2019
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Using data from the GOSAT satellite between 2010 and 2016 and a Bayesian inversion approach, we estimate monthly emissions of methane from tropical Africa. We find an increase in methane emissions during this period, driven in part by rising emissions from South Sudan. Using ancillary data we attribute this short-term emissions rise to an increase in the extent of the Sudd wetlands driven by increased outflow from the East African lakes.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Frédéric Chevallier, Marine Remaud, Christopher W. O'Dell, David Baker, Philippe Peylin, and Anne Cozic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14233–14251, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14233-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14233-2019, 2019
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We present a way to rate the CO2 flux estimates made from inversion of a global atmospheric transport model. Our approach relies on accurate aircraft measurements in the free troposphere. It shows that some satellite soundings can now provide inversion results that are, despite their uncertainty, comparable in credibility to traditional inversions using the accurate but sparse surface network and that these inversions are, therefore, complementary for studies of the global carbon budget.
Neil C. Swart, Jason N. S. Cole, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Mike Lazare, John F. Scinocca, Nathan P. Gillett, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, James R. Christian, Sarah Hanna, Yanjun Jiao, Warren G. Lee, Fouad Majaess, Oleg A. Saenko, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Michael Sigmond, Larry Solheim, Knut von Salzen, Duo Yang, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4823–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, 2019
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The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) is a global model developed to simulate historical climate change and variability, to make centennial-scale projections of future climate, and to produce initialized seasonal and decadal predictions. This paper describes the model components and quantifies the model performance. CanESM5 simulations contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and will be employed for climate science applications in Canada.
Nicolas Vuichard, Palmira Messina, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Bertrand Guenet, Sönke Zaehle, Josefine Ghattas, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4751–4779, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4751-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4751-2019, 2019
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In this research, we present a new version of the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE in which carbon and nitrogen cycles are coupled. We evaluate its skills at simulating primary production at 78 sites and at a global scale. Based on a set of additional simulations in which carbon and nitrogen cycles are coupled and uncoupled, we show that the functional responses of the model with carbon–nitrogen interactions better agree with our current understanding of photosynthesis.
Tea Thum, Silvia Caldararu, Jan Engel, Melanie Kern, Marleen Pallandt, Reiner Schnur, Lin Yu, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4781–4802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4781-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4781-2019, 2019
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To predict the response of the vegetation to climate change, we need global models that describe the relevant processes taking place in the vegetation. Recently, we have obtained more in-depth understanding of vegetation processes and the role of nutrients in the biogeochemical cycles. We have developed a new global vegetation model that includes carbon, water, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles. We show that the model is successful in evaluation against a wide range of observations.
Robbie M. Andrew
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1675–1710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1675-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1675-2019, 2019
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Global production of cement has grown very rapidly in recent years, and, after fossil fuels and land-use change, it is the third-largest source of society's emissions of carbon dioxide. This paper draws on a large variety of available datasets, prioritising official data and emission factors, to produce both global and country-level estimates of these
processemissions from cement production.
Peter J. Rayner, Anna M. Michalak, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13911–13932, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13911-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13911-2019, 2019
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This paper describes the methods for combining models and data to understand how nutrients and pollutants move through natural systems. The methods are analogous to the process of weather forecasting in which previous information is combined with new observations and a model to improve our knowledge of the internal state of the physical system. The methods appear highly diverse but the paper shows that they are all examples of a single underlying formalism.
Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, T. Scott Zaccheo, Jeremy Dobler, Michel Ramonet, Johannes Staufer, Diego Santaren, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13809–13825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13809-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13809-2019, 2019
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CO2 emissions within urban areas impact nearby and downwind concentrations. A different system, based on bi-wavelength laser measurements, has been deployed over Paris. It samples CO2 concentrations along horizontal lines, between a transceiver and a reflector. In this paper, we analyze the measurements provided by this system, together with the more classical in situ sampling and high-resolution modeling. We focus on the temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
Dave van Wees and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4681–4703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4681-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4681-2019, 2019
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For this paper, a novel high spatial-resolution fire emission model based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) modelling framework was developed and compared to a coarser-resolution version of the same model. Our findings highlight the importance of fine spatial resolution when modelling global-scale fire emissions, especially considering the comparison of model pixels to individual field measurements and the model representation of heterogeneity in the landscape.
Sajeev Philip, Matthew S. Johnson, Christopher Potter, Vanessa Genovesse, David F. Baker, Katherine D. Haynes, Daven K. Henze, Junjie Liu, and Benjamin Poulter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13267–13287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13267-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13267-2019, 2019
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This research was conducted to quantify the impact of different prior global biosphere models on the estimate of terrestrial CO2 fluxes when assimilating Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite observations. To determine the prior model impact, we apply observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Even with the substantial spatiotemporal coverage of OCO-2 data, residual differences in posterior CO2 flux estimates remain due to the choice of prior flux mean and uncertainties.
Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Kari Alterskjær, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Piers M. Forster, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, 2019
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Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, Michael Bock, Barbara Seth, Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Sebastian Lienert, Gianna Battaglia, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrian Schilt, and Edward J. Brook
Biogeosciences, 16, 3997–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3997-2019, 2019
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N2O concentrations were subject to strong variations accompanying glacial–interglacial but also rapid climate changes over the last 21 kyr. The sources of these N2O changes can be identified by measuring the isotopic composition of N2O in ice cores and using the distinct isotopic composition of terrestrial and marine N2O. We show that both marine and terrestrial sources increased from the last glacial to the Holocene but that only terrestrial emissions responded quickly to rapid climate changes.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
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Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Fang Li, Maria Val Martin, Meinrat O. Andreae, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gitta Lasslop, Chao Yue, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Erik Kluzek, Xiaohong Liu, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Daniel S. Ward, Anton Darmenov, Thomas Hickler, Charles Ichoku, Brian I. Magi, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Christine Wiedinmyer, and Sam S. Rabin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019
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Fire emissions are critical for atmospheric composition, climate, carbon cycle, and air quality. We provide the first global multi-model fire emission reconstructions for 1700–2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols, based on the nine state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in FireMIP. We also provide information on the recent status and limitations of the model-based reconstructions and identify the main uncertainty sources in their long-term changes.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
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This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Fabienne Maignan, Yi Yin, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep Peñuelas, Shilong L. Piao, Stephen Sitch, William K. Smith, Xuhui Wang, Zaichun Zhu, Vanessa Haverd, Etsushi Kato, Atul K. Jain, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, and Dan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12361–12375, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, 2019
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Here we show that land-surface models improved their ability to simulate the increase in the amplitude of seasonal CO2-cycle exchange (SCANBP) by ecosystems compared to estimates by two atmospheric inversions. We find a dominant role of vegetation growth over boreal Eurasia to the observed increase in SCANBP, strongly driven by CO2 fertilization, and an overall negative effect of temperature on SCANBP. Biases can be explained by the sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature.
Are Olsen, Nico Lange, Robert M. Key, Toste Tanhua, Marta Álvarez, Susan Becker, Henry C. Bittig, Brendan R. Carter, Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, Richard A. Feely, Steven van Heuven, Mario Hoppema, Masao Ishii, Emil Jeansson, Steve D. Jones, Sara Jutterström, Maren K. Karlsen, Alex Kozyr, Siv K. Lauvset, Claire Lo Monaco, Akihiko Murata, Fiz F. Pérez, Benjamin Pfeil, Carsten Schirnick, Reiner Steinfeldt, Toru Suzuki, Maciej Telszewski, Bronte Tilbrook, Anton Velo, and Rik Wanninkhof
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1437–1461, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1437-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1437-2019, 2019
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GLODAP is a data product for ocean inorganic carbon and related biogeochemical variables measured by chemical analysis of water bottle samples at scientific cruises. GLODAPv2.2019 is the first update of GLODAPv2 from 2016. The data that are included have been subjected to extensive quality control, including systematic evaluation of measurement biases. This version contains data from 840 hydrographic cruises covering the world's oceans from 1972 to 2017.
Renaud Person, Olivier Aumont, Gurvan Madec, Martin Vancoppenolle, Laurent Bopp, and Nacho Merino
Biogeosciences, 16, 3583–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3583-2019, 2019
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is considered a possibly important but largely overlooked source of iron (Fe). Here we explore its fertilization capacity by evaluating the response of marine biogeochemistry to Fe release from icebergs and ice shelves in a global ocean model. Large regional impacts are simulated, leading to only modest primary production and carbon export increases at the scale of the Southern Ocean. Large uncertainties are due to low observational constraints on modeling choices.
Elias C. Massoud, Chonggang Xu, Rosie A. Fisher, Ryan G. Knox, Anthony P. Walker, Shawn P. Serbin, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Jennifer A. Holm, Lara M. Kueppers, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Liang Wei, Daniel J. Johnson, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Charlie D. Koven, Nate G. McDowell, and Jasper A. Vrugt
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4133–4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, 2019
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We conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to understand behaviors of a demographic vegetation model within a land surface model. By running the model 5000 times with changing input parameter values, we found that (1) the photosynthetic capacity controls carbon fluxes, (2) the allometry is important for tree growth, and (3) the targeted carbon storage is important for tree survival. These results can provide guidance on improved model parameterization for a better fit to observations.
Jarmo Mäkelä, Jürgen Knauer, Mika Aurela, Andrew Black, Martin Heimann, Hideki Kobayashi, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Hank Margolis, Tiina Markkanen, Jouni Susiluoto, Tea Thum, Toni Viskari, Sönke Zaehle, and Tuula Aalto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4075–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, 2019
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We assess the differences of six stomatal conductance formulations, embedded into a land–vegetation model JSBACH, on 10 boreal coniferous evergreen forest sites. We calibrate the model parameters using all six functions in a multi-year experiment, as well as for a separate drought event at one of the sites, using the adaptive population importance sampler. The analysis reveals weaknesses in the stomatal conductance formulation-dependent model behaviour that we are able to partially amend.
Bo Zheng, Frederic Chevallier, Yi Yin, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Merritt N. Deeter, Robert J. Parker, Yilong Wang, Helen M. Worden, and Yuanhong Zhao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1411–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1411-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1411-2019, 2019
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We use a multi-species atmospheric Bayesian inversion approach to attribute satellite-observed atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) variations to its sources and sinks in order to achieve a full closure of the global CO budget during 2000–2017. We identify a declining trend in the global CO budget since 2000, driven by reduced anthropogenic emissions in the US, Europe, and China, as well as by reduced biomass burning emissions globally, especially in equatorial Africa.
Youngjoon Jang, Sang Bum Hong, Christo Buizert, Hun-Gyu Lee, Sang-Young Han, Ji-Woong Yang, Yoshinori Iizuka, Akira Hori, Yeongcheol Han, Seong Joon Jun, Pieter Tans, Taejin Choi, Seong-Joong Kim, Soon Do Hur, and Jinho Ahn
The Cryosphere, 13, 2407–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2407-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2407-2019, 2019
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We can learn how human activity altered atmospheric air from the interstitial air in the porous snow layer (firn) on top of glaciers. However, old firn air (> 55 years) was observed only at sites where surface temperatures and snow accumulation rates are very low, such as the South Pole. In this study, we report an unusually old firn air with CO2 age of 93 years from Styx Glacier, near the Ross Sea coast in Antarctica. We hypothesize that the large snow density variations increase firn air ages.
Bruno Ringeval, Marko Kvakić, Laurent Augusto, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Christoph Müller, Thomas Nesme, Nicolas Vuichard, Xuhui Wang, and Sylvain Pellerin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-298, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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Crossed fertilization additions lead to the definition of nutrient interaction categories. However, the implications of such categories in terms of nutrient interaction modeling are not clear. We developed a theoretical analysis of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization experiments, then applied it to current estimates of nutrient limitation in cropland. We found that a true co-limitation could affect up to 42 % of the global maize area when using a given formalism of nutrient interaction.
Olli Peltola, Timo Vesala, Yao Gao, Olle Räty, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Bogdan Chojnicki, Ankur R. Desai, Albertus J. Dolman, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Thomas Friborg, Mathias Göckede, Manuel Helbig, Elyn Humphreys, Robert B. Jackson, Georg Jocher, Fortunat Joos, Janina Klatt, Sara H. Knox, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Sebastian Lienert, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Daniel F. Nadeau, Mats B. Nilsson, Walter C. Oechel, Matthias Peichl, Thomas Pypker, William Quinton, Janne Rinne, Torsten Sachs, Mateusz Samson, Hans Peter Schmid, Oliver Sonnentag, Christian Wille, Donatella Zona, and Tuula Aalto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1263–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1263-2019, 2019
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Here we develop a monthly gridded dataset of northern (> 45 N) wetland methane (CH4) emissions. The data product is derived using a random forest machine-learning technique and eddy covariance CH4 fluxes from 25 wetland sites. Annual CH4 emissions from these wetlands calculated from the derived data product are comparable to prior studies focusing on these areas. This product is an independent estimate of northern wetland CH4 emissions and hence could be used, e.g. for process model evaluation.
Sinikka T. Lennartz, Marc von Hobe, Dennis Booge, Henry C. Bittig, Tim Fischer, Rafael Gonçalves-Araujo, Kerstin B. Ksionzek, Boris P. Koch, Astrid Bracher, Rüdiger Röttgers, Birgit Quack, and Christa A. Marandino
Ocean Sci., 15, 1071–1090, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1071-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1071-2019, 2019
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The ocean emits the gases carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and carbon disulfide (CS2), which affect our climate. The goal of this study was to quantify the rates at which both gases are produced in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP), one of the most productive oceanic regions worldwide. Both gases are produced by reactions triggered by sunlight, but we found that the amount produced depends on different factors. Our results improve numerical models to predict oceanic concentrations of both gases.
Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, 2019
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Few Earth system models represent permafrost soil biogeochemistry, contributing to uncertainty in estimating its response and that of the planet to warming. Because the permafrost contains over double the carbon in the present atmosphere, its fate as it is
unlockedby warming is globally significant. One way it can be mobilised is into rivers, the sea, or the atmosphere: a vector previously ignored in climate modelling. We present a model scheme for resolving this vector at a global scale.
Karel Castro-Morales, Gregor Schürmann, Christoph Köstler, Christian Rödenbeck, Martin Heimann, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 16, 3009–3032, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3009-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3009-2019, 2019
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To obtain nearly 30 years of global terrestrial carbon fluxes, we simultaneously incorporated in a land surface model three different time periods of two observational data sets: absorbed photosynthetic active radiation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. One decade of data is enough to improve the modeled long-term trends and seasonal amplitudes of the assimilated variables, particularly in boreal regions. This model has the potential to provide short-term predictions of land carbon fluxes.
Sean Crowell, David Baker, Andrew Schuh, Sourish Basu, Andrew R. Jacobson, Frederic Chevallier, Junjie Liu, Feng Deng, Liang Feng, Kathryn McKain, Abhishek Chatterjee, John B. Miller, Britton B. Stephens, Annmarie Eldering, David Crisp, David Schimel, Ray Nassar, Christopher W. O'Dell, Tomohiro Oda, Colm Sweeney, Paul I. Palmer, and Dylan B. A. Jones
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9797–9831, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9797-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9797-2019, 2019
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Space-based retrievals of carbon dioxide offer the potential to provide dense data in regions that are sparsely observed by the surface network. We find that flux estimates that are informed by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) show different character from that inferred using surface measurements in tropical land regions, particularly in Africa, with a much larger total emission and larger amplitude seasonal cycle.
Daniel Broullón, Fiz F. Pérez, Antón Velo, Mario Hoppema, Are Olsen, Taro Takahashi, Robert M. Key, Toste Tanhua, Melchor González-Dávila, Emil Jeansson, Alex Kozyr, and Steven M. A. C. van Heuven
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1109–1127, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1109-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1109-2019, 2019
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In this work, we are contributing to the knowledge of the consequences of climate change in the ocean. We have focused on a variable related to this process: total alkalinity. We have designed a monthly climatology of total alkalinity using artificial intelligence techniques, that is, a representation of the average capacity of the ocean in the last decades to decelerate the consequences of climate change. The climatology is especially useful to infer the evolution of the ocean through models.
Johannes Winckler, Christian H. Reick, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Alessandro Cescatti, Paul C. Stoy, Quentin Lejeune, Thomas Raddatz, Andreas Chlond, Marvin Heidkamp, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 473–484, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-473-2019, 2019
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For local living conditions, it matters whether deforestation influences the surface temperature, temperature at 2 m, or the temperature higher up in the atmosphere. Here, simulations with a climate model show that at a location of deforestation, surface temperature generally changes more strongly than atmospheric temperature. Comparison across climate models shows that both for summer and winter the surface temperature response exceeds the air temperature response locally by a factor of 2.
Yasunori Tohjima, Hitoshi Mukai, Toshinobu Machida, Yu Hoshina, and Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9269–9285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9269-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9269-2019, 2019
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The amount of fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide that was taken up by land biosphere and ocean was evaluated from atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen observations in the western Pacific over a 15-year period. The results showed that about 30 % and 17 % of the fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide emitted during a 17-year period (2000–2016) was taken up by the ocean and land sinks, respectively. Long-term trends of land and ocean sinks for the decadal period were also evaluated.
Susan J. Cheng, Peter G. Hess, William R. Wieder, R. Quinn Thomas, Knute J. Nadelhoffer, Julius Vira, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Per Gundersen, Ivan J. Fernandez, Patrick Schleppi, Marie-Cécile Gruselle, Filip Moldan, and Christine L. Goodale
Biogeosciences, 16, 2771–2793, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2771-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2771-2019, 2019
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Nitrogen deposition and fertilizer can change how much carbon is stored in plants and soils. Understanding how much added nitrogen is recovered in plants or soils is critical to estimating the size of the future land carbon sink. We compared how nitrogen additions are recovered in modeled soil and plant stocks against data from long-term nitrogen addition experiments. We found that the model simulates recovery of added nitrogen into soils through a different process than found in the field.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Adam Hastie
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2961–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, 2019
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We present a model that can simulate the dynamics of peatland area extent and the vertical buildup of peat. The model is validated across a range of northern peatland sites and over the Northern Hemisphere (> 30° N). It is able to reproduce the spatial extent of northern peatlands and peat carbon accumulation over the Holocene.
Joseph R. Pitt, Grant Allen, Stéphane J.-B. Bauguitte, Martin W. Gallagher, James D. Lee, Will Drysdale, Beth Nelson, Alistair J. Manning, and Paul I. Palmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8931–8945, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8931-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8931-2019, 2019
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This paper presents a new method to assess inventory estimates of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions for large cities and their surrounding regions. A case study using data sampled by a research aircraft around London was used to test the method. We found that the UK national inventory agrees with our observations for CO but needed lower emissions for CH4 to agree with the measured data. Repeated studies could help determine how these emissions vary on different timescales.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Stephen R. Arnold, Richard J. Pope, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Joe McNorton, Piers Forster, Hamish Gordon, Kirsty J. Pringle, Wuhu Feng, Brian J. Kerridge, Barry L. Latter, and Richard Siddans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8669–8686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8669-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8669-2019, 2019
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Wildfires and meteorology have a substantial effect on atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as methane and ozone. During the 1997 El Niño event, unusually large fire emissions indirectly increased global methane through carbon monoxide emission, which decreased the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere. There were also large regional changes to tropospheric ozone concentrations, but contrasting effects of fire and meteorology resulted in a small change to global radiative forcing.
Victor Brovkin, Stephan Lorenz, Thomas Raddatz, Tatiana Ilyina, Irene Stemmler, Matthew Toohey, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 16, 2543–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, 2019
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Mechanisms of atmospheric CO2 growth by 20 ppm from 6000 BCE to the pre-industrial period are still uncertain. We apply the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR for two transient simulations of the climate–carbon cycle. An additional process, e.g. carbonate accumulation on shelves, is required for consistency with ice-core CO2 data. Our simulations support the hypothesis that the ocean was a source of CO2 until the late Holocene when anthropogenic CO2 sources started to affect atmospheric CO2.
Jens Terhaar, James C. Orr, Marion Gehlen, Christian Ethé, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 16, 2343–2367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019, 2019
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A budget of anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean, the main driver of open-ocean acidification, was constructed for the first time using a high-resolution ocean model. The budget reveals that anthropogenic carbon enters the Arctic Ocean mainly by lateral transport; the air–sea flux plays a minor role. Coarser-resolution versions of the same model, typical of earth system models, store less anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean and thus underestimate ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean.
Zongbo Shi, Tuan Vu, Simone Kotthaus, Roy M. Harrison, Sue Grimmond, Siyao Yue, Tong Zhu, James Lee, Yiqun Han, Matthias Demuzere, Rachel E. Dunmore, Lujie Ren, Di Liu, Yuanlin Wang, Oliver Wild, James Allan, W. Joe Acton, Janet Barlow, Benjamin Barratt, David Beddows, William J. Bloss, Giulia Calzolai, David Carruthers, David C. Carslaw, Queenie Chan, Lia Chatzidiakou, Yang Chen, Leigh Crilley, Hugh Coe, Tie Dai, Ruth Doherty, Fengkui Duan, Pingqing Fu, Baozhu Ge, Maofa Ge, Daobo Guan, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Kebin He, Mathew Heal, Dwayne Heard, C. Nicholas Hewitt, Michael Hollaway, Min Hu, Dongsheng Ji, Xujiang Jiang, Rod Jones, Markus Kalberer, Frank J. Kelly, Louisa Kramer, Ben Langford, Chun Lin, Alastair C. Lewis, Jie Li, Weijun Li, Huan Liu, Junfeng Liu, Miranda Loh, Keding Lu, Franco Lucarelli, Graham Mann, Gordon McFiggans, Mark R. Miller, Graham Mills, Paul Monk, Eiko Nemitz, Fionna O'Connor, Bin Ouyang, Paul I. Palmer, Carl Percival, Olalekan Popoola, Claire Reeves, Andrew R. Rickard, Longyi Shao, Guangyu Shi, Dominick Spracklen, David Stevenson, Yele Sun, Zhiwei Sun, Shu Tao, Shengrui Tong, Qingqing Wang, Wenhua Wang, Xinming Wang, Xuejun Wang, Zifang Wang, Lianfang Wei, Lisa Whalley, Xuefang Wu, Zhijun Wu, Pinhua Xie, Fumo Yang, Qiang Zhang, Yanli Zhang, Yuanhang Zhang, and Mei Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7519–7546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7519-2019, 2019
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APHH-Beijing is a collaborative international research programme to study the sources, processes and health effects of air pollution in Beijing. This introduction to the special issue provides an overview of (i) the APHH-Beijing programme, (ii) the measurement and modelling activities performed as part of it and (iii) the air quality and meteorological conditions during joint intensive field campaigns as a core activity within APHH-Beijing.
Anna Agustí-Panareda, Michail Diamantakis, Sébastien Massart, Frédéric Chevallier, Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Jérôme Barré, Roger Curcoll, Richard Engelen, Bavo Langerock, Rachel M. Law, Zoë Loh, Josep Anton Morguí, Mark Parrington, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Ramonet, Coleen Roehl, Alex T. Vermeulen, Thorsten Warneke, and Debra Wunch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7347–7376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7347-2019, 2019
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This paper demonstrates the benefits of using global models with high horizontal resolution to represent atmospheric CO2 patterns associated with evolving weather. The modelling of CO2 weather is crucial to interpret the variability from ground-based and satellite CO2 observations, which can then be used to infer CO2 fluxes in atmospheric inversions. The benefits of high resolution come from an improved representation of the topography, winds, tracer transport and CO2 flux distribution.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Marion Gehlen, Mathieu Vrac, and Carlos Mejia
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2091–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019, 2019
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This work is dedicated to a new model that reconstructs the surface ocean partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) over the global ocean on a monthly 1°×1° grid. The model is based on a feed-forward neural network and represents the nonlinear relationships between pCO2 and the ocean drivers. Reconstructed pCO2 has a satisfying accuracy compared to independent observational data and shows a good agreement in seasonal and interannual variability with three existing mapping methods.
Mingkai Jiang, Sönke Zaehle, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anthony P. Walker, Silvia Caldararu, David S. Ellsworth, and Belinda E. Medlyn
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2069–2089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2069-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2069-2019, 2019
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Here we used a simple analytical framework developed by Comins and McMurtrie (1993) to investigate how different model assumptions affected plant responses to elevated CO2. This framework is useful in revealing both the consequences and the mechanisms through which different assumptions affect predictions. We therefore recommend the use of this framework to analyze the likely outcomes of new assumptions before introducing them to complex model structures.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Tomohiro Oda, Franck Lespinas, Yasjka Meijer, Armin Loescher, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Bo Zheng, Haoran Xu, Shu Tao, Kevin R. Gurney, Geoffrey Roest, Diego Santaren, and Yongxian Su
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 687–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-687-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-687-2019, 2019
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We address the question of the global characterization of fossil fuel CO2 emission hotspots that may cause coherent XCO2 plumes in space-borne CO2 images, based on the ODIAC global high-resolution 1 km fossil fuel emission data product. For space imagery with 0.5 ppm precision for a single XCO2 measurement, a total of 11 314 hotspots are identified, covering 72 % of the global emissions. These hotspots define the targets for the purpose of monitoring fossil fuel CO2 emissions from space.
Emmanuel Arzoumanian, Felix R. Vogel, Ana Bastos, Bakhram Gaynullin, Olivier Laurent, Michel Ramonet, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2665–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2665-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2665-2019, 2019
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We tested commercial lower-cost CO2 sensors in laboratory and field studies to see if they can measure atmospheric CO2 mole fractions with less than 1 ppm bias (with monthly calibration), to allow continuous urban CO2 monitoring.
We find that the sensors' CO2 readings are influenced by temperature, atmospheric pressure and water vapour content, but this can be corrected for by adding sensors (T, p, RH) and carefully calibrating each sensor against a high-precision instrument.
Leonardo Calle, Benjamin Poulter, and Prabir K. Patra
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2611–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2611-2019, 2019
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Satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide offer extraordinary insights into terrestrial ecosystem activity on Earth. The algorithm we present provides researchers with a great deal more information from these satellite data than has been available in the past. We hope the application of this algorithm and analyses tools provides insight into atmospheric dynamics of carbon dioxide and helps inform the development of global ecosystem models in the future.
Paul I. Palmer, Emily L. Wilson, Geronimo L. Villanueva, Giuliano Liuzzi, Liang Feng, Anthony J. DiGregorio, Jianping Mao, Lesley Ott, and Bryan Duncan
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2579–2594, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2579-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2579-2019, 2019
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We describe the potential impact of a new, low-cost, portable ground instrument (the mini-LHR) that measures methane and carbon dioxide in the atmospheric column. This region is key in quantifying the global carbon budget but has geographical gaps in measurements left by ground-based networks and space-based observations. A deployment of 50 mini-LHRs would add new data products in the Amazon, the Arctic, and southern Asia and significantly improve knowledge of regional and global carbon budgets.
Niels Andela, Douglas C. Morton, Louis Giglio, Ronan Paugam, Yang Chen, Stijn Hantson, Guido R. van der Werf, and James T. Randerson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 529–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, 2019
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Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, and satellite observations provide evidence for rapid changes in global fire activity. The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed, and direction is the first global data product on individual fire behavior. Moving towards a global understanding of individual fire behavior is a critical next step in fire research, required to understand how global fire regimes are changing in response to land management and climate.
Emily D. White, Matthew Rigby, Mark F. Lunt, T. Luke Smallman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Alistair J. Manning, Anita L. Ganesan, Simon O'Doherty, Ann R. Stavert, Kieran Stanley, Mathew Williams, Peter Levy, Michel Ramonet, Grant L. Forster, Andrew C. Manning, and Paul I. Palmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4345–4365, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4345-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4345-2019, 2019
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Understanding carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from the terrestrial biosphere on a national scale is important for evaluating land use strategies to mitigate climate change. We estimate emissions of CO2 from the UK biosphere using atmospheric data in a top-down approach. Our findings show that bottom-up estimates from models of biospheric fluxes overestimate the amount of CO2 uptake in summer. This suggests these models wrongly estimate or omit key processes, e.g. land disturbance due to harvest.
Katja Fennel, Simone Alin, Leticia Barbero, Wiley Evans, Timothée Bourgeois, Sarah Cooley, John Dunne, Richard A. Feely, Jose Martin Hernandez-Ayon, Xinping Hu, Steven Lohrenz, Frank Muller-Karger, Raymond Najjar, Lisa Robbins, Elizabeth Shadwick, Samantha Siedlecki, Nadja Steiner, Adrienne Sutton, Daniela Turk, Penny Vlahos, and Zhaohui Aleck Wang
Biogeosciences, 16, 1281–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1281-2019, 2019
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We review and synthesize available information on coastal ocean carbon fluxes around North America (NA). There is overwhelming evidence, compiled and discussed here, that the NA coastal margins act as a sink. Our synthesis shows the great diversity in processes driving carbon fluxes in different coastal regions, highlights remaining gaps in observations and models, and discusses current and anticipated future trends with respect to carbon fluxes and acidification.
Adrienne J. Sutton, Richard A. Feely, Stacy Maenner-Jones, Sylvia Musielwicz, John Osborne, Colin Dietrich, Natalie Monacci, Jessica Cross, Randy Bott, Alex Kozyr, Andreas J. Andersson, Nicholas R. Bates, Wei-Jun Cai, Meghan F. Cronin, Eric H. De Carlo, Burke Hales, Stephan D. Howden, Charity M. Lee, Derek P. Manzello, Michael J. McPhaden, Melissa Meléndez, John B. Mickett, Jan A. Newton, Scott E. Noakes, Jae Hoon Noh, Solveig R. Olafsdottir, Joseph E. Salisbury, Uwe Send, Thomas W. Trull, Douglas C. Vandemark, and Robert A. Weller
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 421–439, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-421-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-421-2019, 2019
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Long-term observations are critical records for distinguishing natural cycles from climate change. We present a data set of 40 surface ocean CO2 and pH time series that suggests the time length necessary to detect a trend in seawater CO2 due to uptake of atmospheric CO2 varies from 8 years in the least variable ocean regions to 41 years in the most variable coastal regions. This data set provides a tool to evaluate natural cycles of ocean CO2, with long-term trends emerging as records lengthen.
Felix R. Vogel, Matthias Frey, Johannes Staufer, Frank Hase, Grégoire Broquet, Irène Xueref-Remy, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Mahesh Kumar Sha, Pascale Chelin, Pascal Jeseck, Christof Janssen, Yao Té, Jochen Groß, Thomas Blumenstock, Qiansi Tu, and Johannes Orphal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3271–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3271-2019, 2019
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Providing timely information on greenhouse gas emissions to stakeholders at sub-national scale is an emerging challenge and understanding urban CO2 levels is one key aspect. This study uses atmospheric observations of total column CO2 and compares them to numerical simulations to investigate CO2 levels in the Paris metropolitan area due to natural fluxes and anthropogenic emissions. Our measurements reveal the influence of locally added CO2, which our model is also able to predict.
Mingxi Yang, Thomas G. Bell, Ian J. Brown, James R. Fishwick, Vassilis Kitidis, Philip D. Nightingale, Andrew P. Rees, and Timothy J. Smyth
Biogeosciences, 16, 961–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-961-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-961-2019, 2019
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We quantify the emissions and uptake of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane from the coastal seas of the UK over 1 year using the state-of-the-art eddy covariance technique. Our measurements show how these air–sea fluxes vary twice a day (tidal), diurnally (circadian) and seasonally. We also estimate the air–sea gas transfer velocity, which is essential for modelling and predicting coastal air-sea exchange.
Carole Helfter, Neil Mullinger, Massimo Vieno, Simon O'Doherty, Michel Ramonet, Paul I. Palmer, and Eiko Nemitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3043–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3043-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3043-2019, 2019
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We present a novel approach to estimate the annual budgets of carbon dioxide (881.0 ± 128.5 Tg) and methane (2.55 ± 0.48 Tg) of the British Isles from shipborne measurements taken over a 3-year period (2015–2017). This study brings independent verification of the emission budgets estimated using alternative products and investigates the seasonality of these emissions, which is usually not possible.
Ludivine Conte, Sophie Szopa, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 16, 881–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-881-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-881-2019, 2019
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The ocean is a source of atmospheric carbon monoxide, a key component for the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. We use a global ocean biogeochemistry model to dynamically assess the oceanic CO budget and its emission to the atmosphere at the global scale. The total emissions of CO to the atmosphere are 4.0 Tg C yr−1. The oceanic CO emission maps produced are relevant for use by atmospheric chemical models, especially to study the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere above the remote ocean.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
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We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Rongting Xu, Hanqin Tian, Shufen Pan, Shree R. S. Dangal, Jian Chen, Jinfeng Chang, Yonglong Lu, Ute Maria Skiba, Francesco N. Tubiello, and Bowen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 175–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-175-2019, 2019
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We provide three gridded datasets of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer and manure N inputs in global pastures and rangelands at a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° for the period 1860–2016 (i.e., annual manure N deposition (by grazing animals) rate, synthetic N fertilizer use rate and manure N application rate). These three datasets could fill data gaps of N inputs in global and regional grasslands and serve as input drivers for earth system models.
Florent F. Malavelle, Jim M. Haywood, Lina M. Mercado, Gerd A. Folberth, Nicolas Bellouin, Stephen Sitch, and Paulo Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1301–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019, 2019
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Diffuse light can increase the efficiency of vegetation photosynthesis. Diffuse light results from scattering by either clouds or aerosols in the atmosphere. During the dry season biomass burning (BB) on the edges of the Amazon rainforest contributes significantly to the aerosol burden over the entire region. We show that despite a modest effect of change in light conditions, the overall impact of BB aerosols on the vegetation is still important when indirect climate feedbacks are considered.
Riley X. Brady, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Michael A. Alexander, Michael Jacox, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 16, 329–346, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-329-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-329-2019, 2019
Rasoul Yousefpour, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 16, 241–254, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-241-2019, 2019
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Global forest resources are accounted for to establish their potential to sink carbon in woody biomass. Climate prediction models realize the effects of future global forest utilization rates, defined by population demand and its evolution over time. However, forest management approaches consider the supply side to realize a sustainable forest carbon stock and adapt the harvest rates to novel climate conditions. This study simulates such an adaptive sustained
yield approach.
Pierre Laurent, Florent Mouillot, Maria Vanesa Moreno, Chao Yue, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences, 16, 275–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-275-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-275-2019, 2019
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Fire propagation and fire size are usually considered to be proportional to fire intensity. We used a global database of fire patch size and fire radiative power, used as a proxy of fire intensity, to test this relationship at a global scale. We showed that in some regions fire size tends to saturate when a regional fire intensity threshold is reached. We concluded that increasing landscape fragmentation limits fire propagation and this effect should be accounted for in global fire modules.
Chuncheng Guo, Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, Mehmet Ilicak, Jerry Tjiputra, Thomas Toniazzo, Jörg Schwinger, and Odd Helge Otterå
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 343–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-343-2019, 2019
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In this paper, we describe and evaluate a new variant of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). It is a computationally efficient model that is designed for experiments such as paleoclimate, carbon cycle, and large ensemble simulations. The model, with various recent code updates, shows improved climate performance compared to the CMIP5 version of NorESM, while the model resolution remains similar.
Mian Liu and Toste Tanhua
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-140, 2019
Publication in OS not foreseen
Camille Richon, Jean-Claude Dutay, Laurent Bopp, Briac Le Vu, James C. Orr, Samuel Somot, and François Dulac
Biogeosciences, 16, 135–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-135-2019, 2019
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We evaluate the effects of climate change and biogeochemical forcing evolution on the nutrient and plankton cycles of the Mediterranean Sea for the first time. We use a high-resolution coupled physical and biogeochemical model and perform 120-year transient simulations. The results indicate that changes in external nutrient fluxes and climate change may have synergistic or antagonistic effects on nutrient concentrations, depending on the region and the scenario.
Benjamin Gaubert, Britton B. Stephens, Sourish Basu, Frédéric Chevallier, Feng Deng, Eric A. Kort, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Christian Rödenbeck, Tazu Saeki, David Schimel, Ingrid Van der Laan-Luijkx, Steven Wofsy, and Yi Yin
Biogeosciences, 16, 117–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-117-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-117-2019, 2019
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We have compared global carbon budgets calculated from numerical inverse models and CO2 observations, and evaluated how these systems reproduce vertical gradients in atmospheric CO2 from aircraft measurements. We found that available models have converged on near-neutral tropical total fluxes for several decades, implying consistent sinks in intact tropical forests, and that assumed fossil fuel emissions and predicted atmospheric growth rates are now the dominant axes of disagreement.
Pingyang Li, Jens Mühle, Stephen A. Montzka, David E. Oram, Benjamin R. Miller, Ray F. Weiss, Paul J. Fraser, and Toste Tanhua
Ocean Sci., 15, 33–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-33-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-33-2019, 2019
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Use of CFCs as oceanic transient tracers is difficult for recently ventilated water masses as their atmospheric mole fractions have been decreasing. To explore novel tracers, we synthesized consistent annual mean atmospheric histories of HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, HFC-134a, HFC-125, HFC-23, PFC-14 (CF4) and PFC-116 in both hemispheres and reconstructed their solubility functions in water and seawater. This work is also potentially useful for tracer studies in a range of natural waters.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
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Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Chantelle Burton, Richard Betts, Manoel Cardoso, Ted R. Feldpausch, Anna Harper, Chris D. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, 2019
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Fire and land-use change are important disturbances within the Earth system, and their inclusion in models is critical to enable the correct simulation of vegetation cover. Here we describe developments to the land surface model JULES to represent explicit land-use change and fire and to assess the effects of each process on present day vegetation compared to observations. Using historical land-use data and the fire model INFERNO, overall model results are improved by the developments.
Anja Rammig, Jens Heinke, Florian Hofhansl, Hans Verbeeck, Timothy R. Baker, Bradley Christoffersen, Philippe Ciais, Hannes De Deurwaerder, Katrin Fleischer, David Galbraith, Matthieu Guimberteau, Andreas Huth, Michelle Johnson, Bart Krujit, Fanny Langerwisch, Patrick Meir, Phillip Papastefanou, Gilvan Sampaio, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso von Randow, Christian Zang, and Edna Rödig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5203–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, 2018
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We propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products. We provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty in ecosystem variables. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest.
Sarah Connors, Alistair J. Manning, Andrew D. Robinson, Stuart N. Riddick, Grant L. Forster, Anita Ganesan, Aoife Grant, Stephen Humphrey, Simon O'Doherty, Dave E. Oram, Paul I. Palmer, Robert L. Skelton, Kieran Stanley, Ann Stavert, Dickon Young, and Neil R. P. Harris
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1187, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas & reducing its emissions is a vital part of climate change mitigation to limit global temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C. This paper explains a way to estimate emitted methane over a sub-national area by combining measurements & computer dispersion modelling in a so-called
inversiontechnique. Compared with the current national inventory, our results show lower emissions for Cambridgeshire, possibly due to waste sector emission differences.
Oscar B. Dimdore-Miles, Paul I. Palmer, and Lori P. Bruhwiler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17895–17907, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17895-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17895-2018, 2018
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The Arctic is experiencing warming trends higher than the global mean. Arctic ecosystems are a large store of carbon. As the soil organic carbon thaws and decomposes, some fraction of this store will eventually be released to the atmosphere as methane. We show that a previously used measurement-based metric to identify changes in Arctic methane emissions does not reliably quantify these changes because it neglects the effect of atmospheric transport. A better metric will combine data and models.
Christopher W. O'Dell, Annmarie Eldering, Paul O. Wennberg, David Crisp, Michael R. Gunson, Brendan Fisher, Christian Frankenberg, Matthäus Kiel, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Lukas Mandrake, Aronne Merrelli, Vijay Natraj, Robert R. Nelson, Gregory B. Osterman, Vivienne H. Payne, Thomas E. Taylor, Debra Wunch, Brian J. Drouin, Fabiano Oyafuso, Albert Chang, James McDuffie, Michael Smyth, David F. Baker, Sourish Basu, Frédéric Chevallier, Sean M. R. Crowell, Liang Feng, Paul I. Palmer, Mavendra Dubey, Omaira E. García, David W. T. Griffith, Frank Hase, Laura T. Iraci, Rigel Kivi, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Hirofumi Ohyama, Christof Petri, Coleen M. Roehl, Mahesh K. Sha, Kimberly Strong, Ralf Sussmann, Yao Te, Osamu Uchino, and Voltaire A. Velazco
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 6539–6576, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-6539-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-6539-2018, 2018
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Robbie M. Andrew
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2213–2239, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2213-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2213-2018, 2018
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Global production of cement has grown very rapidly in recent years, and after fossil fuels and land-use change, it is the third-largest source of society's emissions of carbon dioxide. This paper draws on a large variety of available datasets, prioritising official data and emission factors, to produce both global and country-level estimates of these
processemissions from cement production.
Hanna Paulsen, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Katharina D. Six, and Irene Stemmler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1283–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018, 2018
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We use an Earth system model to study the effects of light absorption by marine cyanobacteria on climate. We find that cyanobacteria have a considerable cooling effect on tropical SST with implications for ocean and atmosphere circulation patterns as well as for climate variability. The results indicate the importance of considering phytoplankton light absorption in climate models, and specifically highlight the role of cyanobacteria due to their regulative effect on tropical SST and climate.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Anne L. Morée, Jörg Schwinger, and Christoph Heinze
Biogeosciences, 15, 7205–7223, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7205-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7205-2018, 2018
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Changes in the distribution of the carbon isotope 13C can be used to study the climate system if the governing processes (ocean circulation and biogeochemistry) are understood. We show the Southern Ocean importance for the global 13C distribution and that changes in 13C can be strongly influenced by biogeochemistry. Interpretation of 13C as a proxy for climate signals needs to take into account the effects of changes in biogeochemistry in addition to changes in ocean circulation.
Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Stefano Manzoni, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, and Yuanyuan Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4779–4796, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4779-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4779-2018, 2018
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Carbon use efficiency (CUE) of decomposers depends strongly on the organic matter quality (C : N ratio) and soil nutrient availability rather than a fixed value. A soil biogeochemical model with flexible CUE can better capture the differences in respiration rate of litter with contrasting C : N ratios and under different levels of mineral N availability than the model with fixed CUE, and well represent the effect of varying litter quality (N content) on SOM formation across temporal scales.
Jonathan E. Hickman, Enrico Dammers, Corinne Galy-Lacaux, and Guido R. van der Werf
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16713–16727, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16713-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16713-2018, 2018
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Ammonia gas, which contributes to air pollution, is emitted from soils and combustion. In regions with distinct dry and rainy seasons, the first rainfall events each year trigger biogeochemical activity in soils. We used satellite observations of the atmosphere over the African Sahel savanna ecosystem to show that increases in soil moisture at the onset of the rainy season are responsible for large pulsed emissions of ammonia equal to roughly a fifth of annual ammonia emissions from the region
Cara Nissen, Meike Vogt, Matthias Münnich, Nicolas Gruber, and F. Alexander Haumann
Biogeosciences, 15, 6997–7024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6997-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6997-2018, 2018
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Using a regional ocean model, we find that coccolithophore biomass in the Southern Ocean is highest in the subantarctic in late summer when diatom growth becomes limited by silicate. We show that zooplankton grazing is crucial to explain phytoplankton biomass distributions in this area and conclude that assessments of future distributions should not only consider physical and chemical factors (temperature, light, nutrients, pH), but also interactions with other phytoplankton or zooplankton.
Martina Franz, Rocio Alonso, Almut Arneth, Patrick Büker, Susana Elvira, Giacomo Gerosa, Lisa Emberson, Zhaozhong Feng, Didier Le Thiec, Riccardo Marzuoli, Elina Oksanen, Johan Uddling, Matthew Wilkinson, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 15, 6941–6957, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, 2018
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Four published ozone damage functions previously used in terrestrial biosphere models were evaluated regarding their ability to simulate observed biomass dose–response relationships using the O-CN model. Neither damage function was able to reproduce the observed ozone-induced biomass reductions. Calibrating a plant-functional-type-specific relationship between accumulated ozone uptake and leaf-level photosynthesis did lead to a good agreement between observed and modelled ozone damage.
Ali Asaadi, Vivek K. Arora, Joe R. Melton, and Paul Bartlett
Biogeosciences, 15, 6885–6907, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6885-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6885-2018, 2018
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Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs), which play a central role in a plant's life processes and its response to environmental conditions, are typically not included in terrestrial biogeochemistry models used in Earth system models (ESMs). In this study, we include NSC pools in the framework of the land component of the Canadian ESM and show how they help address the long-standing problem of delayed leaf phenology.
HyeJin Kim, Isabel M. D. Rosa, Rob Alkemade, Paul Leadley, George Hurtt, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Emma Caton, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Adriana De Palma, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Felipe Espinoza, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Ricardo E. Gonzalez, Maya Gueguen, Carlos Guerra, Mike Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Ines S. Martins, Tetsuya Matsui, Cory Merow, Michael Obersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Richard Sharp, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, and Henrique M. Pereira
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4537–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, 2018
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This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based Intercomparison of Models (BES-SIM) that projects the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century. BES-SIM uses harmonized scenarios and input data and a set of common output metrics at multiple scales, and identifies model uncertainties and research gaps.
Marine Remaud, Frédéric Chevallier, Anne Cozic, Xin Lin, and Philippe Bousquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4489–4513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4489-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4489-2018, 2018
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We compare several versions of a global atmospheric transport model for the simulation of CO2. The representation of subgrid-scale processes modulates the interhemispheric gradient and the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere. It has the largest impact over Brazil. Refining the horizontal resolution improves the simulation near emission hotspots or along the coastlines. The sensitivities to the land surface model and to the increase in vertical resolution are marginal.
Julien Palmiéri, Jean-Claude Dutay, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Loïc Houpert, Nicolas Mayot, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-423, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-423, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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In this model study, we highlight the importance of the subsurface phytoplankton dynamic in the Mediterranean sea. Comparing surface chlorophyll annual cycle to vertically integrated one, we show how important the subsurface phytoplankton community is, throughout the Mediterranean. It shows that surface chlorophyll is incomplete and cannot alone be considered a good proxy of the total phytoplankton biomass. Then, we decrypt some deep chlorophyll maximum mechanisms in the low production area.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Matthieu Guimberteau, Xuhui Wang, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Jan Polcher, Feng Zhou, Hyungjun Kim, and other China-Trend-Stream project members
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5463–5484, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, 2018
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Simulations in China were performed in ORCHIDEE driven by different forcing datasets: GSWP3, PGF, CRU-NCEP, and WFDEI. Simulated soil moisture was compared to several datasets to evaluate the ability of ORCHIDEE in reproducing soil moisture dynamics. Results showed that ORCHIDEE soil moisture coincided well with other datasets in wet areas and in non-irrigated areas. It suggested that the ORCHIDEE-MICT was suitable for further hydrological studies in China.
Gilles Reverdin, Nicolas Metzl, Solveig Olafsdottir, Virginie Racapé, Taro Takahashi, Marion Benetti, Hedinn Valdimarsson, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Magnus Danielsen, Jonathan Fin, Aicha Naamar, Denis Pierrot, Kevin Sullivan, Francis Bringas, and Gustavo Goni
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1901–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1901-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1901-2018, 2018
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This paper presents the SURATLANT data set (SURveillance ATLANTique), consisting of individual data of temperature, salinity, parameters of the carbonate system, nutrients, and water stable isotopes (δ18O and δD) collected mostly from ships of opportunity since 1993 along transects between Iceland and Newfoundland. These data are used to quantify the seasonal cycle and can be used to investigate long-term tendencies in the surface ocean, including of pCO2 and pH.
Igor B. Konovalov, Daria A. Lvova, Matthias Beekmann, Hiren Jethva, Eugene F. Mikhailov, Jean-Daniel Paris, Boris D. Belan, Valerii S. Kozlov, Philippe Ciais, and Meinrat O. Andreae
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14889–14924, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14889-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14889-2018, 2018
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A good knowledge of black carbon (BC) emissions from open biomass burning (BB) is an important prerequisite for reliable climate predictions, especially in the Arctic. This paper introduces a method to constrain a regional budget of BB BC emissions using satellite measurements of the absorption and extinction optical depths and evaluates its potential application in a large Siberian region.
Taku Umezawa, Hidekazu Matsueda, Yousuke Sawa, Yosuke Niwa, Toshinobu Machida, and Lingxi Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14851–14866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14851-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14851-2018, 2018
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Distribution of atmospheric CO2 is key to estimate surface CO2 sources and sinks. We present extensive analysis of a unique 10-year three-dimensional dataset of atmospheric CO2 achieved by the CONTRAIL commercial airliner measurements over the Asia-Pacific region. Aided by model simulations, we identified the influence of anthropogenic and biospheric CO2 fluxes in the seasonal evolution of the spatial CO2 distributions under the seasonally varying meteorology (e.g., Asian summer monsoon)
Liang Feng, Paul I. Palmer, Robyn Butler, Stephen J. Andrews, Elliot L. Atlas, Lucy J. Carpenter, Valeria Donets, Neil R. P. Harris, Ross J. Salawitch, Laura L. Pan, and Sue M. Schauffler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14787–14798, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14787-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14787-2018, 2018
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We infer surface fluxes of bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromoform (CH2Br2) from CAST and CONTRAST aircraft observations over the western Pacific, using a tagged version of the GEOS-Chem global 3-D atmospheric chemistry model and a Maximum A Posteriori inverse model. Using the aircraft data, we estimate the regional fluxes about 20–40 % smaller than the prior inventories by Ordóñez et al. (2012). We find no evidence to support a robust linear relationship between CHBr3 and CH2Br2 oceanic emissions.
Michael F. Schibig, Duane Kitzis, and Pieter P. Tans
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 5565–5586, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5565-2018, 2018
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For long-term monitoring of CO2 in the atmosphere it is crucial that standard reference gas mixtures stored in high-pressure aluminum cylinders, used to calibrate global measurements, remain stable over their whole time of use. This study finds a reproducible small enrichment as a cylinder is emptied at a low-flow rate, as well as somewhat larger and variable effects when a cylinder is emptied using a high-flow rate.
Kerstin Hartung, Gunilla Svensson, Hamish Struthers, Anna-Lena Deppenmeier, and Wilco Hazeleger
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4117–4137, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4117-2018, 2018
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Single-column models have been used to develop weather and climate models for several decades. They decouple small-scale processes from large-scale forcing and allow us to test models in a controlled environment with reduced computational cost. Here, we present a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean single-column model, including sea ice. We demonstrate that it is a valuable tool to advance our understanding in marine and polar boundary layer processes and interactions of their coupled components.
Melissa Meléndez, Joseph Salisbury, Dwight Gledhill, Chris Langdon, Julio M. Morell, Derek Manzello, Sylvia Musielewicz, and Adrienne Sutton
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-408, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
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Using observations from the NOAA CO2 buoy in La Parguera, Puerto Rico along with modeling approaches yield useful indices of biological processes affecting the water column over the reef. This study provided the first long-term monitoring of coral reef biological processes. Results show that processes that produce CO2 dominated over most of the year leading to high dissolution rates. This can have implications on the reef system's ability to recover to other climate-scale stressors (warming).
Sam Illingworth, Alice Bell, Stuart Capstick, Adam Corner, Piers Forster, Rosie Leigh, Maria Loroño Leturiondo, Catherine Muller, Harriett Richardson, and Emily Shuckburgh
Geosci. Commun., 1, 9–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-9-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-9-2018, 2018
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Climate change is real, it is happening now, and it will not be stopped by the sole efforts of scientists. This study shows how poetry and open conversation can be used to develop a dialogue around mitigating climate change with different communities, including faith groups and people living with disabilities. Furthermore, it shows how this dialogue can help us to better understand the opportunities that these communities present in tackling the negative effects of human-made climate change.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Yuanyuan Huang, Yiqi Luo, Ying-Ping Wang, A. Anthony Bloom, Grégoire Broquet, Jens Hartmann, Shushi Peng, Josep Penuelas, Shilong Piao, Jordi Sardans, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rong Wang, Sönke Zaehle, and Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3903–3928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, 2018
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We present a new modeling framework called Global Observation-based Land-ecosystems Utilization Model of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (GOLUM-CNP) that combines a data-constrained C-cycle analysis with data-driven estimates of N and P inputs and losses and with observed stoichiometric ratios. GOLUM-CNP provides a traceable tool, where a consistency between different datasets of global C, N, and P cycles has been achieved.
Johannes Meyerholt and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 15, 5677–5698, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5677-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5677-2018, 2018
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Terrestrial biosphere models employ various representations of ecosystem nitrogen loss, some based on soil N availability, some based on net N mineralization. We show in local and global simulations that this variety leads to pronounced uncertainty in the predicted magnitude and sign of ecosystem N loss change under elevated CO2. Suprisingly, this uncertainty barely affects predicted carbon storage responses to elevated CO2, illustrating the need for new benchmarks especially in the boreal zone.
Eunjee Lee, Fan-Wei Zeng, Randal D. Koster, Brad Weir, Lesley E. Ott, and Benjamin Poulter
Biogeosciences, 15, 5635–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5635-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5635-2018, 2018
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Land carbon fluxes are controlled in part by the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric conditions near the Earth's surface. This study offers a comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of multiple facets of spatiotemporal variability in atmospheric CO2 for carbon cycle dynamics. Globally, consideration of the diurnal CO2 variability reduces the gross primary production and net land carbon uptake. The relative contributions of other variability vary regionally and seasonally.
Robyn Butler, Paul I. Palmer, Liang Feng, Stephen J. Andrews, Elliot L. Atlas, Lucy J. Carpenter, Valeria Donets, Neil R. P. Harris, Stephen A. Montzka, Laura L. Pan, Ross J. Salawitch, and Sue M. Schauffler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13135–13153, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13135-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13135-2018, 2018
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Natural sources of short-lived bromoform and dibromomethane are important for determining the inorganic bromine budget in the stratosphere that drives ozone loss. Two new modelling techniques describe how different geographical source regions influence their atmospheric variability over the western Pacific. We find that it is driven primarily by open ocean sources, and we use atmospheric observations to help estimate their contributions to the upper tropospheric inorganic bromine budget.
Neil Humpage, Hartmut Boesch, Paul I. Palmer, Andy Vick, Phil Parr-Burman, Martyn Wells, David Pearson, Jonathan Strachan, and Naidu Bezawada
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 5199–5222, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5199-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5199-2018, 2018
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We present an overview of the GreenHouse gas Observations of the Stratosphere and Troposphere (GHOST) instrument, a novel shortwave infrared grating spectrometer designed for remote sensing of total column greenhouse gas concentrations from an aircraft. Using laboratory measurements we show that the GHOST design is able to achieve its science objectives. We conclude by describing GHOST's maiden flights on board the NASA Global Hawk UAV during CAST/ATTREX and show some of the initial results.
Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, Alan Robock, Corey Gabriel, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13097–13113, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, 2018
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Marine cloud brightening has been proposed as a means of geoengineering/climate intervention, or deliberately altering the climate system to offset anthropogenic climate change. In idealized simulations that highlight contrasts between land and ocean, we find that the globe warms, including the ocean due to transport of heat from land. This study reinforces that no net energy input into the Earth system does not mean that temperature will necessarily remain unchanged.
Chris Huntingford, Rebecca J. Oliver, Lina M. Mercado, and Stephen Sitch
Biogeosciences, 15, 5415–5422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5415-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5415-2018, 2018
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Raised ozone levels impact plant stomatal opening and thus photosynthesis. Most models describe this as a suppression of stomata opening. Field evidence suggests more complexity, as ozone damage may make stomatal response
sluggish. In some circumstances, this causes stomata to be more open – a concern during drought conditions – by increasing transpiration. To guide interpretation and modelling of field measurements, we present an equation for sluggish effects, via a single tau parameter.
Linden Ashcroft, Joan Ramon Coll, Alba Gilabert, Peter Domonkos, Manola Brunet, Enric Aguilar, Mercè Castella, Javier Sigro, Ian Harris, Per Unden, and Phil Jones
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1613–1635, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1613-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1613-2018, 2018
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We present a dataset of 8.8 million sub-daily weather observations for Europe and the southern Mediterranean, compiled and digitised from historical and modern sources. We describe the methods used to digitise and quality control the data, and show that 3.5 % of the observations required correction or removal, similar to other data rescue projects. These newly recovered records will help to improve weather simulations over Europe.
Wei He, Ivar R. van der Velde, Arlyn E. Andrews, Colm Sweeney, John Miller, Pieter Tans, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Thomas Nehrkorn, Marikate Mountain, Weimin Ju, Wouter Peters, and Huilin Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3515–3536, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3515-2018, 2018
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We have implemented a regional, high-resolution, and computationally attractive carbon dioxide data assimilation system. This system, named CTDAS-Lagrange, is capable of simultaneously optimizing terrestrial biosphere fluxes and the lateral boundary conditions. The CTDAS-Lagrange system can be easily extended to assimilate an additional tracer, e.g., carbonyl sulfide (COS or OCS), for regional estimates of both net and gross carbon fluxes.
Thibaut Wagener, Nicolas Metzl, Mathieu Caffin, Jonathan Fin, Sandra Helias Nunige, Dominique Lefevre, Claire Lo Monaco, Gilles Rougier, and Thierry Moutin
Biogeosciences, 15, 5221–5236, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5221-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5221-2018, 2018
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The western tropical South Pacific was sampled along a longitudinal 4000 km transect (OUTPACE cruise) for the measurement of carbonate parameters (total alkalinity and total inorganic carbon) between the Melanesian Archipelago and the western part of the South Pacific gyre. This paper reports this new dataset and derived properties. We also estimate anthropogenic carbon distribution in the water column using the TrOCA method.
Elisa Lovecchio, Nicolas Gruber, and Matthias Münnich
Biogeosciences, 15, 5061–5091, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5061-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5061-2018, 2018
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We find that the ocean's flow on scales of a few tens to a few hundred km has a central role in the lateral redistribution of the organic carbon from the coast to the open ocean. Narrow coastal filaments drive the offshore flux of organic carbon and strongly enhance its availability up to 1000 km from the coast. Eddies extend the flux up to 2000 km offshore containing 30 % of the organic matter in the open waters. Resolving these scales is essential to capture the coastal/open ocean coupling.
Paul I. Palmer, Simon O'Doherty, Grant Allen, Keith Bower, Hartmut Bösch, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Sarah Connors, Sandip Dhomse, Liang Feng, Douglas P. Finch, Martin W. Gallagher, Emanuel Gloor, Siegfried Gonzi, Neil R. P. Harris, Carole Helfter, Neil Humpage, Brian Kerridge, Diane Knappett, Roderic L. Jones, Michael Le Breton, Mark F. Lunt, Alistair J. Manning, Stephan Matthiesen, Jennifer B. A. Muller, Neil Mullinger, Eiko Nemitz, Sebastian O'Shea, Robert J. Parker, Carl J. Percival, Joseph Pitt, Stuart N. Riddick, Matthew Rigby, Harjinder Sembhi, Richard Siddans, Robert L. Skelton, Paul Smith, Hannah Sonderfeld, Kieran Stanley, Ann R. Stavert, Angelina Wenger, Emily White, Christopher Wilson, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11753–11777, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11753-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11753-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of the Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) experiment. GAUGE was designed to quantify nationwide GHG emissions of the UK, bringing together measurements and atmospheric transport models. This novel experiment is the first of its kind. We anticipate it will inform the blueprint for countries that are building a measurement infrastructure in preparation for global stocktakes, which are a key part of the Paris Agreement.
Chloé Largeron, Gerhard Krinner, Philippe Ciais, and Claire Brutel-Vuilmet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3279–3297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3279-2018, 2018
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Peatlands are widely present in boreal regions and contain large carbon stocks due to their hydrologic properties and high water content. We have enhanced the global land surface model ORCHIDEE by introducing boreal peatlands. These are considered as a new type of vegetation in the model, with specific hydrological properties for peat soil. In this paper, we focus on the representation of the hydrology of northern peatlands and on the evaluation of the hydrological impact of this implementation.
Ivy Frenger, Matthias Münnich, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 15, 4781–4798, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4781-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4781-2018, 2018
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Although mesoscale ocean eddies are ubiquitous in the Southern Ocean (SO), their regional and seasonal association with phytoplankton has not been quantified. We identify over 100 000 eddies and determine the associated phytoplankton biomass anomalies using satellite-based chlorophyll (Chl) as a proxy. The emerging Chl anomalies can be explained largely by lateral advection of Chl by eddies. This impact of eddies on phytoplankton may implicate downstream effects on SO biogeochemical properties.
Anthony P. Walker, Ming Ye, Dan Lu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Lianhong Gu, Belinda E. Medlyn, Alistair Rogers, and Shawn P. Serbin
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3159–3185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3159-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3159-2018, 2018
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Large uncertainty is inherent in model predictions due to imperfect knowledge of how to describe the processes that a model is intended to represent. Yet methods to quantify and evaluate this model hypothesis uncertainty are limited. To address this, the multi-assumption architecture and testbed (MAAT) automates the generation of all possible models by combining multiple representations of multiple processes. MAAT provides a formal framework for quantification of model hypothesis uncertainty.
Adrienne J. Sutton, Richard A. Feely, Stacy Maenner-Jones, Sylvia Musielwicz, John Osborne, Colin Dietrich, Natalie Monacci, Jessica Cross, Randy Bott, and Alex Kozyr
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2018-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2018-77, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
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Long-term observations are critical records for distinguishing natural cycles from climate change. We present a data set of 40 surface ocean CO2 and pH time series that suggest the time length necessary to detect a trend in seawater CO2 due to uptake of atmospheric CO2 varies from 8 years in the least variable ocean regions to 41 years in the most variable coastal regions. This data set provides a tool to evaluate natural cycles of ocean CO2, with long-term trends emerging as records lengthen.
Maarten Krol, Marco de Bruine, Lars Killaars, Huug Ouwersloot, Andrea Pozzer, Yi Yin, Frederic Chevallier, Philippe Bousquet, Prabir Patra, Dmitry Belikov, Shamil Maksyutov, Sandip Dhomse, Wuhu Feng, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3109–3130, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3109-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3109-2018, 2018
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The TransCom inter-comparison project regularly carries out studies to quantify errors in simulated atmospheric transport. This paper presents the first results of an age of air (AoA) inter-comparison of six global transport models. Following a protocol, six models simulated five tracers from which atmospheric transport times can easily be deduced. Results highlight that inter-model differences associated with atmospheric transport are still large and require further analysis.
Cale A. Miller, Katie Pocock, Wiley Evans, and Amanda L. Kelley
Ocean Sci., 14, 751–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-751-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-751-2018, 2018
Vivek K. Arora, Joe R. Melton, and David Plummer
Biogeosciences, 15, 4683–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4683-2018, 2018
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Earth system models (ESMs) project future changes in climate in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, before this can be achieved the natural fluxes of a given GHG must also be modelled. This paper evaluates the natural methane fluxes simulated by the CLASS-CTEM model (which is the land component of the Canadian ESM) against observations to show that the simulated methane emissions from wetlands and fires, and soil uptake of methane are realistic.
Virginie Racapé, Patricia Zunino, Herlé Mercier, Pascale Lherminier, Laurent Bopp, Fiz F. Pérèz, and Marion Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 15, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4661-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4661-2018, 2018
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This study of a model–data comparison investigates the relationship between transport, air–sea flux and storage rate of Cant in the North Atlantic Subpolar Ocean over the past 53 years. It reveals the key role played by Central Water for storing Cant in the subtropical region and for supplying Cant into the deep ocean. The Cant transfer to the deep ocean occurred mainly north of the OVIDE section, and just a small fraction was exported to the subtropical gyre within the lower MOC.
Andrea J. Fassbender, Simone R. Alin, Richard A. Feely, Adrienne J. Sutton, Jan A. Newton, Christopher Krembs, Julia Bos, Mya Keyzers, Allan Devol, Wendi Ruef, and Greg Pelletier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1367–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1367-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1367-2018, 2018
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Ocean acidification (OA) is difficult to identify in coastal marine waters due to the magnitude of natural variability and lack of historical baseline information. To provide regional context for ongoing research, adaptation, and management efforts, we have collated high-quality publicly available data to characterize seasonal cycles of OA-relevant parameters in the Pacific Northwest marine surface waters. Large nonstationary chemical gradients from the open ocean into the Salish Sea are found.
Vanessa Haverd, Benjamin Smith, Lars Nieradzik, Peter R. Briggs, William Woodgate, Cathy M. Trudinger, Josep G. Canadell, and Matthias Cuntz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2995–3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, 2018
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CABLE is a terrestrial biosphere model that can be applied stand-alone and provides for land surface–atmosphere exchange within a climate model. We extend CABLE for regional and global carbon–climate simulations, accounting for land use and land cover change mediated by tree demography. A novel algorithm to simulate the coordination of rate-limiting photosynthetic processes is also implemented. Simulations satisfy multiple observational constraints on the global land carbon cycle.
Victoria Naipal, Philippe Ciais, Yilong Wang, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, and Kristof Van Oost
Biogeosciences, 15, 4459–4480, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4459-2018, 2018
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We seek to better understand the links between soil erosion by rainfall and the global carbon (C) cycle by coupling a soil erosion model to the C cycle of a land surface model. With this modeling approach we evaluate the effects of soil removal on soil C stocks in the presence of climate change and land use change. We find that accelerated soil erosion leads to a potential SOC removal flux of 74 ±18 Pg of C globally over the period AD 1850–2005, with significant impacts on the land C balance.
Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Meirong Wang, Fei Jiang, Jingming Chen, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Ziqiang Jiang, Weimin Ju, Sebastian Lienert, Julia Nabel, Stephen Sitch, Nicolas Viovy, Hengmao Wang, and Andrew J. Wiltshire
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10333–10345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, 2018
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Based on the Mauna Loa CO2 records and TRENDY multi-model historical simulations, we investigate the different impacts of EP and CP El Niños on interannual carbon cycle variability. Composite analysis indicates that the evolutions of CO2 growth rate anomalies have three clear differences in terms of precursors (negative and neutral), amplitudes (strong and weak), and durations of peak (Dec–Apr and Oct–Jan) during EP and CP El Niños, respectively. We further discuss their terrestrial mechanisms.
Emilie Joetzjer, Fabienne Maignan, Jérôme Chave, Daniel Goll, Ben Poulter, Jonathan Barichivich, Isabelle Maréchaux, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Matthieu Guimberteau, Kim Naudts, Damien Bonal, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-308, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This study explores the relative contributions of tree demographic, canopy structure and hydraulic processes on the Amazonian carbon and water cycles using large-scale process-based model. Our results imply that explicit coupling of the water and carbon cycles improves the representation of biogeochemical cycles and their spatial variability. Representing the variation in the ecological functioning of Amazonia should be the next step to improve the performance and predictive ability of models.
Duoying Ji, Songsong Fang, Charles L. Curry, Hiroki Kashimura, Shingo Watanabe, Jason N. S. Cole, Andrew Lenton, Helene Muri, Ben Kravitz, and John C. Moore
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10133–10156, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10133-2018, 2018
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We examine extreme temperature and precipitation under climate-model-simulated solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering schemes. Both types of geoengineering lead to lower minimum temperatures at higher latitudes and greater cooling of minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures over land compared with oceans. Stratospheric aerosol injection is more effective in reducing tropical extreme precipitation, while solar dimming is more effective over extra-tropical regions.
Rebecca J. Oliver, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, David Simpson, Belinda E. Medlyn, Yan-Shih Lin, and Gerd A. Folberth
Biogeosciences, 15, 4245–4269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4245-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4245-2018, 2018
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Potential gains in terrestrial carbon sequestration over Europe from elevated CO2 can be partially offset by concurrent rises in tropospheric O3. The land surface model JULES was run in a factorial suite of experiments showing that by 2050 simulated GPP was reduced by 4 to 9 % due to plant O3 damage. Large regional variations exist with larger impacts identified for temperate compared to boreal regions. Plant O3 damage was greatest over the twentieth century and declined into the future.
Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, Karina Williams, and Carolina Duran-Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2857–2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, 2018
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Dynamic global vegetation models are used for studying historical and future changes to vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle. JULES is a DGVM that represents the land surface in the UK Earth System Model. We compared simulated gross and net primary productivity of vegetation, vegetation distribution, and aspects of the transient carbon cycle to observational datasets. JULES was able to accurately reproduce many aspects of the terrestrial carbon cycle with the recent improvements.
Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Eddy Robertson, Wei Li, Goran Georgievski, Peter Lawrence, Andy Wiltshire, Philippe Ciais, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Almut Arneth, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, 2018
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Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's surface can alter the local energy balance, which can result in a local warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location, as well as on the background climate. While models can theoretically simulate these effects, their skill is not well documented across space and time. Here we provide a dedicated framework to evaluate such models against measurements derived from satellite observations.
Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Katharina Waha, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2789–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2789-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle are of central importance for Earth system science. Nutrient limitations, especially from nitrogen, are important constraints on vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon cycle. We extended the well-established global vegetation, hydrology, and crop model LPJmL with a nitrogen cycle. We find significant improvement in global patterns of crop productivity. Regional differences in crop productivity can now be largely reproduced by the model.
Xin Lin, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Bousquet, Michel Ramonet, Yi Yin, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Marc Delmotte, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Nuggehalli K. Indira, Robin Locatelli, Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Marielle Saunois, Panangady S. Swathi, Rong Wang, Camille Yver-Kwok, Yogesh K. Tiwari, and Lingxi Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9475–9497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9475-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9475-2018, 2018
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We simulate CH4 and CO2 using a zoomed global transport model with a horizontal resolution of ~50 km over South and East Asia, as well as a standard model version for comparison. Model performance is evaluated for both gases and versions at multiple timescales against a new collection of surface stations over this key GHG-emitting region. The evaluation at different timescales and comparisons between gases and model versions have implications for possible model improvements and inversions.
Yu Hoshina, Yasunori Tohjima, Keiichi Katsumata, Toshinobu Machida, and Shin-ichiro Nakaoka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9283–9295, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9283-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9283-2018, 2018
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We installed a low flow rate measurement system on a cargo ship sailing between Japan and North America and started onboard continuous measurements for O2 and CO2. From the comparison between the in situ measurements and flask samples, we concluded that the uncertainties in the O2 and CO2 mole fraction for the in situ measurements are about 9 per meg and about 0.3 ppm, respectively.
Derek T. Robinson, Alan Di Vittorio, Peter Alexander, Almut Arneth, C. Michael Barton, Daniel G. Brown, Albert Kettner, Carsten Lemmen, Brian C. O'Neill, Marco Janssen, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Sam S. Rabin, Mark Rounsevell, James P. Syvitski, Isaac Ullah, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 895–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, 2018
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Understanding the complexity behind the rapid use of Earth’s resources requires modelling approaches that couple human and natural systems. We propose a framework that comprises the configuration, frequency of interaction, and coordination of communication between models along with eight lessons as guidelines to increase the success of coupled human–natural systems modelling initiatives. We also suggest a way to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models.
Amanda R. Fay, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Galen A. McKinley, David R. Munro, Colm Sweeney, Alison R. Gray, Peter Landschützer, Britton B. Stephens, Taro Takahashi, and Nancy Williams
Biogeosciences, 15, 3841–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3841-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3841-2018, 2018
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The Southern Ocean is highly under-sampled and since this region dominates the ocean sink for CO2, understanding change is critical. Here we utilize available observations to evaluate how the seasonal cycle, variability, and trends in surface ocean carbon in the well-sampled Drake Passage region compare to that of the broader subpolar Southern Ocean. Results indicate that the Drake Passage is representative of the broader region; however, additional winter observations would improve comparisons.
Maite Bauwens, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Lesley De Cruz, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Quentin Laffineur, Crist Amelynck, Niels Schoon, Bernard Heinesch, Thomas Holst, Almut Arneth, Reinhart Ceulemans, Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, and Alex Guenther
Biogeosciences, 15, 3673–3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3673-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3673-2018, 2018
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Biogenic isoprene fluxes are simulated over Europe with the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model for the recent past and end-of-century climate at high spatiotemporal resolution (0.1°, 3 min). Due to climate change, fluxes increased by 40 % over 1979–2014. Climate scenarios for 2070–2099 suggest an increase by 83 % due to climate, and an even stronger increase when the potential impact of CO2 fertilization is considered (up to 141 %). Accounting for CO2 inhibition cancels out a large part of these increases.
Christopher J. Smith, Piers M. Forster, Myles Allen, Nicholas Leach, Richard J. Millar, Giovanni A. Passerello, and Leighton A. Regayre
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2273–2297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018, 2018
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FAIR v1.3 is a simple Python-based climate model emulator. It takes emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol and ozone precursors to calculate radiative forcing and temperature change. It includes a simple representation of carbon cycle feedbacks due to temperature and accumulated carbon uptake. Large ensembles can be run with minimal computational expense for any user-specified emissions pathway. We produce such an ensemble using the RCP emissions datasets.
Wei Li, Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Daniel Goll, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, and Albert Jornet-Puig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2249–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2249-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2249-2018, 2018
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We implemented four major lignocellulosic bioenergy crops in ORCHIDEE. We added new PFTs, did new parameterizations of photosynthesis, carbon allocation, and phenology based on a compilation of field measurements, and added a specific harvest module. The resulting ORCHIDEE-MICT-BIOENERGY model is evaluated at 296 locations where field measurements of harvested biomass are available, and the new model can generally reproduce the global bioenergy crop yield observations.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Bjørn H. Samset, Oliviér Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Jana Sillmann, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Timothy Andrews, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Trond Iversen, Matthew Kasoar, Viatcheslav Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Richardson, Camilla W. Stjern, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8439–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, 2018
Christoph Heinze, Tatiana Ilyina, and Marion Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 15, 3521–3539, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3521-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3521-2018, 2018
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The ocean becomes increasingly acidified through uptake of additional man-made CO2 from the atmosphere. This is impacting ecosystems. In order to find out whether reduced biological production of calcium carbonate shell material of biota is occurring at a large scale, we carried out a model study simulating the changes in oceanic 230Th concentrations with reduced availability of calcium carbonate particles in the water. 230Th can serve as a useful magnifying glass for acidification impacts.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
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Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Ye Huang, Bertrand Guenet, Philippe Ciais, Ivan A. Janssens, Jennifer L. Soong, Yilong Wang, Daniel Goll, Evgenia Blagodatskaya, and Yuanyuan Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2111–2138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018, 2018
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ORCHIMIC is a modeling effort trying to improve the representation of SOC dynamics in Earth system models (ESM). It has a structure that can be easily incorporated into CENTURY-based ESMs. In ORCHIMIC, key microbial dynamics (i.e., enzyme production, enzymatic decomposition and microbial dormancy) are included. The ORCHIMIC model can also reproduce the observed temporal dynamics of respiration and priming effects; thus it is an improved tool for climate projections and SOC response predictions.
Sourish Basu, David F. Baker, Frédéric Chevallier, Prabir K. Patra, Junjie Liu, and John B. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7189–7215, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7189-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7189-2018, 2018
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CO2 measurements from the global surface network and CO2 estimates from satellites such as the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) are currently used to quantify the surface sources and sinks of CO2, using what we know about atmospheric transport of gases. In this work, we quantify the uncertainties in those surface source/sink estimates that stem from errors in our atmospheric transport models, using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE).
Steven J. Lade, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, John M. Anderies, Christian Beer, Sarah E. Cornell, Thomas Gasser, Jon Norberg, Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockström, and Will Steffen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, 2018
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Around half of the carbon that humans emit into the atmosphere each year is taken up on land (by trees) and in the ocean (by absorption). We construct a simple model of carbon uptake that, unlike the complex models that are usually used, can be analysed mathematically. Our results include that changes in atmospheric carbon may affect future carbon uptake more than changes in climate. Our simple model could also study mechanisms that are currently too uncertain for complex models.
Sebastian Lienert and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 15, 2909–2930, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018, 2018
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Deforestation, shifting cultivation and wood harvesting cause large carbon emissions, altering climate. We apply a dynamic global vegetation model in a probabilistic framework. Diverse observations are assimilated to establish an optimally performing model and a large ensemble of model versions. Land-use carbon emissions are reported for individual countries, regions and the world. We find that parameter-related uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude as process-related effects.
Truls Andersen, Bert Scheeren, Wouter Peters, and Huilin Chen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2683–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2683-2018, 2018
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We developed and field-tested a UAV-based active AirCore for atmospheric measurements of CO2, CH4, and CO. AirCore is an innovative tool that passively samples air using the atmospheric pressure gradient during descent. Here we have taken further steps to change the “active” sampling process with a pump, miniaturize it, and deploy it on a UAV. The active AirCore system opens up a wide variety of opportunities, e.g., quantifying CH4 emissions from wetlands, landfills, other CH4 hot spots.
Karel Castro-Morales, Thomas Kleinen, Sonja Kaiser, Sönke Zaehle, Fanny Kittler, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Beer, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 15, 2691–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, 2018
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We present year-round methane emissions from wetlands in Northeast Siberia that were simulated with a land surface model. Ground-based flux measurements from the same area were used for evaluation of the model results, finding a best agreement with the observations in the summertime emissions that take place in this region predominantly through plants. During winter, methane emissions through the snow contribute 4 % of the total annual methane budget, but these are still underestimated.
Christian Rödenbeck, Sönke Zaehle, Ralph Keeling, and Martin Heimann
Biogeosciences, 15, 2481–2498, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2481-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2481-2018, 2018
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In this paper we investigate how the CO2 exchange between the land vegetation and the atmosphere varies from year to year. We quantify the relation between variations in the CO2 exchange and variations in air temperature. For this quantification, we use long-term measurements of CO2 in the air at many locations, a simulation code for the transport of carbon dioxide through the atmosphere, and a data set of air temperature. The results help us to understand the mechanisms of CO2 exchange.
Erik T. Buitenhuis, Parvadha Suntharalingam, and Corinne Le Quéré
Biogeosciences, 15, 2161–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2161-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2161-2018, 2018
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Thanks to decreases in CFC concentrations, N2O is now the third-most important greenhouse gas, and the dominant contributor to stratospheric ozone depletion. Here we estimate the ocean–atmosphere N2O flux. We find that an estimate based on observations alone has a large uncertainty. By combining observations and a range of model simulations we find that the uncertainty is much reduced to 2.45 ± 0.8 Tg N yr−1, and better constrained and at the lower end of the estimate in the latest IPCC report.
Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, Heike K. Lotze, Eric D. Galbraith, William Cheung, Manuel Barange, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Jose A. Fernandes, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Alistair J. Hobday, Veronika Huber, Simon Jennings, Miranda Jones, Patrick Lehodey, Jason S. Link, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tilla Roy, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago Silva, Charles A. Stock, Jeroen Steenbeek, Philip J. Underwood, Jan Volkholz, James R. Watson, and Nicola D. Walker
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1421–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, 2018
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Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial for strengthening future projections. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, which brings together the marine ecosystem modelling community to inform long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
Stephan Harrison, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Christian Huggel, John Reynolds, Dan H. Shugar, Richard A. Betts, Adam Emmer, Neil Glasser, Umesh K. Haritashya, Jan Klimeš, Liam Reinhardt, Yvonne Schaub, Andy Wiltshire, Dhananjay Regmi, and Vít Vilímek
The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018
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Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate change. This recession produces a range of natural hazards including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have produced the first global inventory of GLOFs associated with the failure of moraine dams and show, counterintuitively, that these have reduced in frequency over recent decades. In this paper we explore the reasons for this pattern.
Andrew Lenton, Richard J. Matear, David P. Keller, Vivian Scott, and Naomi E. Vaughan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 339–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-339-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-339-2018, 2018
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Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and surface warming while also addressing ocean acidification. We simulate the Earth system response to a fixed addition of AOA under low and high emissions. We explore the regional and global response to AOA. A key finding is that AOA is much more effective at reducing warming and ocean acidification under low emissions, despite lower carbon uptake.
Luke Surl, Paul I. Palmer, and Gonzalo González Abad
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4549–4566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4549-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4549-2018, 2018
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We used observations of HCHO formaldehyde columns from the OMI satellite instrument and the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model to investigate how and why HCHO varies over India. We find that emissions of biogenic VOC from forests are the most powerful driver, with forests' response to seasonal temperature variations causing variation over time. Human-driven emissions of VOC and burning of vegetation have detectable, but more limited, impacts.
Martin Kunz, Jost V. Lavric, Christoph Gerbig, Pieter Tans, Don Neff, Christine Hummelgård, Hans Martin, Henrik Rödjegård, Burkhard Wrenger, and Martin Heimann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1833–1849, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1833-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1833-2018, 2018
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Unmanned aircraft could provide a cost-effective way to close gaps in the observation of the carbon cycle, provided that small yet accurate analysers are available. We have developed a COmpact Carbon dioxide analyser for Airborne Platforms (COCAP). During validation of its CO2 measurements in simulated and real flights we found a measurement error of 1.2 μmol mol−1 or better with no indication of bias. COCAP is a self-contained package that has proven well suited for operation on board UASs.
David P. Keller, Andrew Lenton, Vivian Scott, Naomi E. Vaughan, Nico Bauer, Duoying Ji, Chris D. Jones, Ben Kravitz, Helene Muri, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1133–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, 2018
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There is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of proposed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods as a potential means of mitigating climate change. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) has been initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments.
Yilong Wang, Grégoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Felix Vogel, Lin Wu, Yi Yin, Rong Wang, and Shu Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4229–4250, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4229-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4229-2018, 2018
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This paper assesses the potential of atmospheric 14CO2 observations and a global inversion system to solve for fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions in Europe. The estimate of monthly emission budgets is largely improved in high emitting regions. The results are sensitive to the observation network and the prior uncertainty. Using a high-resolution transport model and a systematic evaluation of the uncertainty in current emission inventories should improve the potential to retrieve FFCO2 emissions.
Vincent Taillandier, Thibaut Wagener, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Nicolas Mayot, Hervé Legoff, Joséphine Ras, Laurent Coppola, Orens Pasqueron de Fommervault, Catherine Schmechtig, Emilie Diamond, Henry Bittig, Dominique Lefevre, Edouard Leymarie, Antoine Poteau, and Louis Prieur
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 627–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-627-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-627-2018, 2018
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We report on data from an oceanographic cruise, covering western, central and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea. This cruise was fully dedicated to the maintenance and the metrological verification of a biogeochemical observing system based on a fleet of BGC-Argo floats.
Richard J. Matear and Andrew Lenton
Biogeosciences, 15, 1721–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1721-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1721-2018, 2018
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We show climate–carbon feedbacks accelerate and enhance ocean acidification. Such an acceleration of ocean acidification may further undermine the ability of marine biota to adapt to the changing environment. Our study also identifies the need to use Earth system models to make future ocean acidification projections (relevance to AR6) and the need to reduce the uncertainty in the climate–carbon feedbacks.
Abdelhadi El Yazidi, Michel Ramonet, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Isabelle Pison, Amara Abbaris, Dominik Brunner, Sebastien Conil, Marc Delmotte, Francois Gheusi, Frederic Guerin, Lynn Hazan, Nesrine Kachroudi, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Leonard Rivier, and Dominique Serça
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1599-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1599-2018, 2018
Sayaka Yasunaka, Eko Siswanto, Are Olsen, Mario Hoppema, Eiji Watanabe, Agneta Fransson, Melissa Chierici, Akihiko Murata, Siv K. Lauvset, Rik Wanninkhof, Taro Takahashi, Naohiro Kosugi, Abdirahman M. Omar, Steven van Heuven, and Jeremy T. Mathis
Biogeosciences, 15, 1643–1661, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1643-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1643-2018, 2018
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We estimated monthly air–sea CO2 fluxes in the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent seas north of 60° N from 1997 to 2014, after mapping pCO2 in the surface water using a self-organizing map technique. The addition of Chl a as a parameter enabled us to improve the estimate of pCO2 via better representation of its decline in spring. The uncertainty in the CO2 flux estimate was reduced, and a net annual Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake of 180 ± 130 Tg C y−1 was determined to be significant.
Alizée Roobaert, Goulven G. Laruelle, Peter Landschützer, and Pierre Regnier
Biogeosciences, 15, 1701–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1701-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1701-2018, 2018
Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Philippe Ciais, Vladislav Bastrikov, Bruno De Vos, Bert Gielen, Gerd Gleixner, Albert Jornet-Puig, Klaus Kaiser, Dolly Kothawala, Ronny Lauerwald, Josep Peñuelas, Marion Schrumpf, Sara Vicca, Nicolas Vuichard, David Walmsley, and Ivan A. Janssens
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 937–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-937-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-937-2018, 2018
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Global models generally oversimplify the representation of soil organic carbon (SOC), and thus its response to global warming remains uncertain. We present the new soil module ORCHIDEE-SOM, within the global model ORCHIDEE, that refines the representation of SOC dynamics and includes the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) processes. The model is able to reproduce SOC stocks and DOC concentrations in four different ecosystems, opening an opportunity for improved predictions of SOC in global models.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Irène Xueref-Remy, Elsa Dieudonné, Cyrille Vuillemin, Morgan Lopez, Christine Lac, Martina Schmidt, Marc Delmotte, Frédéric Chevallier, François Ravetta, Olivier Perrussel, Philippe Ciais, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Michel Ramonet, T. Gerard Spain, and Christophe Ampe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3335–3362, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3335-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3335-2018, 2018
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Urbanized and industrialized areas are the largest source of fossil CO2. This work analyses the atmospheric CO2 variability observed from the first in situ network deployed in the Paris megacity area. Gradients of several ppm are found between the rural, peri-urban and urban sites at the diurnal to the seasonal scales. Wind direction and speed as well as boundary layer dynamics, correlated to highly variable urban emissions, are shown to be key regulator factors of the observed CO2 records.
Panagiotis Kountouris, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Karstens, Thomas Frank Koch, and Martin Heimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3027–3045, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3027-2018, 2018
Panagiotis Kountouris, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Karstens, Thomas F. Koch, and Martin Heimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3047–3064, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3047-2018, 2018
Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, and Wei Li
Biogeosciences, 15, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1185-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1185-2018, 2018
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Gross land use change such as shifting cultivation causes carbon emissions because carbon release in cleared forests is larger than absorption in regrowing ones. However, to appropriately account for this process, vegetation models have to represent sub-grid secondary forest dynamics. We found that gross land use emissions can be overestimated if sub-grid secondary forests are neglected in the model. Conversely, rotation lengths of shifting cultivation have a critical role.
Ben Parkes, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Philippe Ciais, and Xuhui Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018, 2018
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We present an analysis of three crops in West Africa and their response to short-term climate change in a world where temperatures are 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels. We show that the number of crop failures for all crops is due to increase in the future climate. We further show the difference in yield change across several West African countries and show that the yields are not expected to increase fast enough to prevent food shortages.
Bakr Badawy, Saroja Polavarapu, Dylan B. A. Jones, Feng Deng, Michael Neish, Joe R. Melton, Ray Nassar, and Vivek K. Arora
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 631–663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-631-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-631-2018, 2018
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We assess the impact of using the meteorological fields from GEM-MACH-GHG to drive CLASS-CTEM. This coupling is considered an important step toward understanding how meteorological uncertainties affect both CO2 flux estimates and modeled atmospheric transport. Ultimately, such an approach will provide more direct feedback to the CLASS-CTEM developers and thus help to improve the performance of CLASS-CTEM by identifying the model limitations based on atmospheric constraints.
Emily Ane Dionizio, Marcos Heil Costa, Andrea D. de Almeida Castanho, Gabrielle Ferreira Pires, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon-Junior, Eddie Lenza, Fernando Martins Pimenta, Xiaojuan Yang, and Atul K. Jain
Biogeosciences, 15, 919–936, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-919-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-919-2018, 2018
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Using a dynamic vegetation model, we demonstrate that fire occurrence is the main determinant factor of vegetation changes along the Amazon–Cerrado border, followed by nutrient limitation and interannual climate variability. Although we simulated more than 80 % of the variability of biomass in the transition zone, in many places the simulated biomass clearly does not match observations. The accurate representation of the transition is important for understanding the savannization of the Amazon.
Mahdi Nakhavali, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ronny Lauerwald, Jing Tang, Sarah Chadburn, Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Anna Harper, David Walmsley, Matthias Peichl, and Bert Gielen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 593–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, 2018
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In order to provide a better understanding of the Earth's carbon cycle, we need a model that represents the whole continuum from atmosphere to land and into the ocean. In this study we include in JULES a representation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) processes. Our results show that the model is able to reproduce the DOC concentration and controlling processes, including leaching to the riverine system, which is fundamental for integrating the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem.
Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Emmanuel Renault, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Heinrich Bovensmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Lin Wu, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 681–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-681-2018, 2018
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This study assesses the potential of space-borne imagery of CO2 atmospheric concentrations for monitoring the emissions from the Paris area. Such imagery could be provided by European and American missions in the next decade. It highlights the difficulty to improve current knowledge on CO2 emissions for urban areas with CO2 observations from satellites, and calls for more technological innovations in the remote sensing of CO2 and in the models that exploit it.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Gerhard Krinner, Shushi Peng, Mika Aurela, Christian Bernhofer, Christian Brümmer, Syndonia Bret-Harte, Housen Chu, Jiquan Chen, Ankur R. Desai, Jiří Dušek, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Thomas Friborg, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sébastien Gogo, Thomas Grünwald, Birger U. Hansen, David Holl, Elyn Humphreys, Miriam Hurkuck, Gerard Kiely, Janina Klatt, Lars Kutzbach, Chloé Largeron, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Magnus Lund, Peter M. Lafleur, Xuefei Li, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Mats B. Nilsson, Janusz Olejnik, Mikaell Ottosson-Löfvenius, Walter Oechel, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Norbert Pirk, Olli Peltola, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Daniel Rasse, Janne Rinne, Gaius Shaver, Hans Peter Schmid, Matteo Sottocornola, Rainer Steinbrecher, Torsten Sachs, Marek Urbaniak, Donatella Zona, and Klaudia Ziemblinska
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, 2018
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Northern peatlands store large amount of soil carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We implemented peatland hydrological and carbon accumulation processes into the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model was evaluated against EC measurements from 30 northern peatland sites. The model generally well reproduced the spatial gradient and temporal variations in GPP and NEE at these sites. Water table depth was not well predicted but had only small influence on simulated NEE.
Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Wei Li, Matthew J. McGrath, Jinfeng Chang, and Shushi Peng
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 409–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-409-2018, 2018
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Human alteration of land cover has caused CO2 that is stored in forest biomass and soil to be released into the atmosphere and thus contribute to global warming. Global vegetation models that are used to quantify such carbon emissions from land use change traditionally rarely include shifting cultivation and secondary forest age dynamics. In this study, we expanded one vegetation model to include these features. We found that carbon emissions from land use change are estimated to be smaller.
Wei Li, Natasha MacBean, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Defourny, Céline Lamarche, Sophie Bontemps, Richard A. Houghton, and Shushi Peng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 219–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-219-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-219-2018, 2018
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We evaluated the land cover changes based on plant functional types (PFTs) derived from the newly released annual ESA land cover maps. We addressed the geographical distributions and temporal trends of the translated PFT maps and compared with other datasets commonly used by the land surface model community. Different choices of these datasets for the applications in land surface models are proposed depending on the research purposes.
Robbie M. Andrew
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 195–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-195-2018, 2018
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The production of cement releases large quantities of carbon dioxide and is the third-largest anthropogenic source after fossil fuel combustion and land-use change. Global estimates of these emissions have varied considerably. Here we present a new database of country-level process emissions of CO2 from the production of cement, combining the best available sources. The global data series covers the period 1928–2016. Emissions in 2016 were 1.45 ± 0.20 Gt CO2.
Roland Séférian, Sunghye Baek, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Bertrand Decharme, David Saint-Martin, and Romain Roehrig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 321–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-321-2018, 2018
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This paper presents a new interactive scheme for ocean surface albedo suited for the current generation of Earth system models. This scheme computes the ocean surface albedo accounting for the spectral dependence (across a range of wavelengths between 200 and 4000 nm), the characteristics of incident solar radiation (direct of diffuse), the effects of surface winds, chlorophyll content and whitecaps in addition to the canonical solar zenith angle dependence.
Ivar R. van der Velde, John B. Miller, Michiel K. van der Molen, Pieter P. Tans, Bruce H. Vaughn, James W. C. White, Kevin Schaefer, and Wouter Peters
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 283–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-283-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-283-2018, 2018
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We explored an inverse modeling technique to interpret global atmospheric measurements of CO2 and the ratio of its stable carbon isotopes (δ13C). We detected the possible underestimation of drought stress in biosphere models after applying combined atmospheric CO2 and δ13C constraints. This study highlights the importance of improving the representation of the biosphere in carbon–climate models, in particular in a world where droughts become more extreme and more frequent.
Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Lars Ahlm, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Ben Kravitz, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven J. Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, 2018
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Marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed to help limit global warming. We present here the first multi-model assessment of idealized MCB simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. While all models predict a global cooling as intended, there is considerable spread between the models both in terms of radiative forcing and the climate response, largely linked to the substantial differences in the models' representation of clouds.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Ye Huang, Chao Yue, Sarah Dantec-Nédélec, Catherine Ottlé, Albert Jornet-Puig, Ana Bastos, Pierre Laurent, Daniel Goll, Simon Bowring, Jinfeng Chang, Bertrand Guenet, Marwa Tifafi, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Agnès Ducharne, Fuxing Wang, Tao Wang, Xuhui Wang, Yilong Wang, Zun Yin, Ronny Lauerwald, Emilie Joetzjer, Chunjing Qiu, Hyungjun Kim, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 121–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, 2018
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Improved projections of future Arctic and boreal ecosystem transformation require improved land surface models that integrate processes specific to these cold biomes. To this end, this study lays out relevant new parameterizations in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. These describe the interactions between soil carbon, soil temperature and hydrology, and their resulting feedbacks on water and CO2 fluxes, in addition to a recently developed fire module.
Fei Lun, Junguo Liu, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Nesme, Jinfeng Chang, Rong Wang, Daniel Goll, Jordi Sardans, Josep Peñuelas, and Michael Obersteiner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1-2018, 2018
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We quantified in detail the P budgets in agricultural systems and PUE on global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P inputs into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils, with the rest lost to bodies of water. There are great differences in P budgets and PUE in agricultural systems on global, regional, and national scales. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution and P in fertilizer and food among countries.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Chao Yue, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, and Ana Bastos
Biogeosciences, 15, 91–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-91-2018, 2018
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We compared the biomass recovery curves from a recent field-based study with those used in bookkeeping models and demonstrated the importance of considering gross forest changes rather than net forest changes. We also derived a critical gross-to-net forest area change ratio, beyond which the sign of carbon flux will be reversed. This critical ratio was further applied to the high-resolution satellite data in the Amazon to distinguish the sensitive regions.
Friederike Fröb, Are Olsen, Fiz F. Pérez, Maribel I. García-Ibáñez, Emil Jeansson, Abdirahman Omar, and Siv K. Lauvset
Biogeosciences, 15, 51–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-51-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-51-2018, 2018
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On long timescales, the inventory of total dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean is mainly driven by the increase in anthropogenic CO2 emitted to the atmosphere due to human activities. On short timescales, however, the anthropogenic signal can be masked by the variability in natural inorganic carbon, shown in this study based on Irminger Sea cruise data from 1991 to 2015. In order to estimate oceanic carbon budgets, we suggest jointly assessing natural, anthropogenic and total carbon.
Thomas W. Trull, Abraham Passmore, Diana M. Davies, Tim Smit, Kate Berry, and Bronte Tilbrook
Biogeosciences, 15, 31–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-31-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-31-2018, 2018
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We present the first large-scale survey of planktonic biogenic carbonate concentrations south of Australia, accompanied by biogenic silica and particulate organic carbon. These suggest that coccolithophores are largely restricted to subantarctic waters and are present in much lower abundance than in Northern Hemisphere polar waters. Comparison to upper ocean properties suggests that thermal tolerance and competition with diatoms for limiting iron may be as influential as ocean acidification.
Arsène Druel, Philippe Peylin, Gerhard Krinner, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Anna Peregon, Vladislav Bastrikov, Natalya Kosykh, and Nina Mironycheva-Tokareva
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4693–4722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4693-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4693-2017, 2017
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To improve the simulation of vegetation–climate feedbacks at high latitudes, three new circumpolar vegetation types were added in the ORCHIDEE land surface model: bryophytes (mosses) and lichens, Arctic shrubs, and Arctic grasses. This article is an introduction to the modification of vegetation distribution and physical behaviour, implying for example lower productivity, roughness, and higher winter albedo or freshwater discharge in the Arctic Ocean.
Xin Lan, Pieter Tans, Colm Sweeney, Arlyn Andrews, Andrew Jacobson, Molly Crotwell, Edward Dlugokencky, Jonathan Kofler, Patricia Lang, Kirk Thoning, and Sonja Wolter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 15151–15165, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-15151-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-15151-2017, 2017
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We analyze spatial patterns of column CO2 over North America using well-calibrated aircraft and tall tower measurements. We find that the long-term averaged spatial gradients of column CO2 across North America show a smooth pattern that mainly reflects the large-scale circulation. Our results can serve as a good reference for evaluating current and future column CO2 retrievals from both ground and satellite platforms.
Anna Mackie, Paul I. Palmer, and Helen Brindley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 15095–15119, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-15095-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-15095-2017, 2017
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We compare the balance of solar and thermal radiation at the surface and the top of the atmosphere from a forecasting model to observations at a site in Niamey, Niger, in the Sahel. To interpret the energy budgets we examine other factors, such as cloud properties, water vapour and aerosols, which we use to understand the differences between the observation and model. We find that some differences are linked to lack of ice in clouds, underestimated aerosol loading and surface temperatures.
Heather Graven, Colin E. Allison, David M. Etheridge, Samuel Hammer, Ralph F. Keeling, Ingeborg Levin, Harro A. J. Meijer, Mauro Rubino, Pieter P. Tans, Cathy M. Trudinger, Bruce H. Vaughn, and James W. C. White
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4405–4417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4405-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4405-2017, 2017
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Modelling of carbon isotopes 13C and 14C in land and ocean components of Earth system models provides opportunities for new insights and improved understanding of global carbon cycling, and for model evaluation. We compiled existing historical datasets to define the annual mean carbon isotopic composition of atmospheric CO2 for 1850–2015 that can be used in CMIP6 and other modelling activities.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Yu Liu, Nicolas Gruber, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14145–14169, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14145-2017, 2017
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We analyze fossil fuel signals in atmospheric CO2 over Europe using a high-resolution atmospheric transport model and diurnal emission data. We find that fossil fuel CO2 accounts for more than half of the atmospheric CO2 variations, mainly at diurnal timescales. The covariance of diurnal emission and transport also leads to a substantial rectification effect. Thus, the consideration of diurnal emissions and high-resolution transport is paramount for accurately modeling the fossil fuel signal.
Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frederic Chevallier, Yi Yin, Christian Rödenbeck, and Taejin Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13903–13919, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13903-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13903-2017, 2017
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The year 2015 appeared as a paradox regarding how global carbon cycle has responded to climate variation: it is the greenest year since 2000 according to satellite observation, but the atmospheric CO2 growth rate is also the highest since 1959. We found that this is due to a only moderate land carbon sink, because high growing-season sink in northern lands has been partly offset by autumn and winter release and the late-year El Niño has led to an abrupt transition to land source in the tropics.
Paula Conde Pardo, Bronte Tilbrook, Clothilde Langlais, Thomas William Trull, and Stephen Rich Rintoul
Biogeosciences, 14, 5217–5237, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5217-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5217-2017, 2017
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The carbon content of the water masses of the Southern Ocean south of Tasmania has increased over the period 1995–2011, leading to a general decrease in pH. An enhancement in the upwelling of DIC-rich deep waters is the main plausible cause of the increase in carbon in surface waters south of the Polar Front. North of the Polar Front, strong winds favor the ventilation of surface to intermediate layers, where the DIC increase is explained by the uptake of atmospheric CO2.
Xu Yue, Susanna Strada, Nadine Unger, and Aihui Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13699–13719, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13699-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13699-2017, 2017
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Climate change will significantly increase wildfire emissions in boreal North America by the midcentury, leading to increased surface ozone and atmospheric aerosols. These air pollutants can affect vegetation photosynthesis through stomatal uptake (for ozone) and radiative and climatic perturbations (for aerosols). Using a carbon–chemistry–climate model, we estimate trivial ozone vegetation damages but significant aerosol-induced reduction in ecosystem productivity by the 2050s.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
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We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Ingrid Super, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Michiel K. van der Molen, Hendrika A. M. Sterk, Arjan Hensen, and Wouter Peters
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13297–13316, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13297-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13297-2017, 2017
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In this research we examined the use of different models to simulate CO2 concentrations in and around urban areas. We find that in the presence of large stack emissions in a gridded model is insufficient to represent the small dimensions of the CO2 plumes. A plume model improves this representation up to 10–14 km from the stack. Better model results can improve the estimate of CO2 emissions from urban areas and assist in identifying efficient emission reduction policies.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Helen E. K. Smith, Alex J. Poulton, Rebecca Garley, Jason Hopkins, Laura C. Lubelczyk, Dave T. Drapeau, Sara Rauschenberg, Ben S. Twining, Nicholas R. Bates, and William M. Balch
Biogeosciences, 14, 4905–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4905-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4905-2017, 2017
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The Great Calcite Belt (GCB), a region of high calcite concentration from coccolithophores, covers 60 % of the Southern Ocean area. We examined the influence of temperature, macronutrients, and carbonate chemistry on the distribution of mineralizing phytoplankton in the GCB. Coccolithophores occupy a niche in the Southern Ocean after the diatom spring bloom depletes silicic acid. No single environmental variable holds a dominant influence over phytoplankton biogeography in summer GCB conditions.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Jonathan C. Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Peter Anthoni, Stefan Olin, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 4829–4850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, 2017
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Many climate change mitigation scenarios require negative emissions from land management. However, environmental side effects are often not considered. Here, we use projections of future land use from two land-use models as input to a vegetation model. We show that carbon removal via bioenergy production or forest maintenance and expansion affect a range of ecosystem functions. Largest impacts are found for crop production, nitrogen losses, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds.
Rudra K. Shrestha, Vivek K. Arora, Joe R. Melton, and Laxmi Sushama
Biogeosciences, 14, 4733–4753, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4733-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4733-2017, 2017
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Computer models of vegetation provide a tool to assess how future changes in climate may the affect geographical distribution of vegetation. However, such models must first be assessed for their ability to reproduce the present-day geographical distribution of vegetation. Here, we assess the ability of one such dynamic vegetation model. We find that while the model is broadly successful in reproducing the geographical distribution of trees and grasses in North America some limitations remain.
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gabriel Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Caitlin Moore, Youngryel Ryu, Simon Scheiter, Stanislaus J. Schymanski, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 14, 4711–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4711-2017, 2017
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This paper attempts to review some of the current challenges faced by the modelling community in simulating the behaviour of savanna ecosystems. We provide a particular focus on three dynamic processes (phenology, root-water access, and fire) that are characteristic of savannas, which we believe are not adequately represented in current-generation terrestrial biosphere models. We highlight reasons for these misrepresentations, possible solutions and a future direction for research in this area.
Naoko Saitoh, Shuhei Kimoto, Ryo Sugimura, Ryoichi Imasu, Kei Shiomi, Akihiko Kuze, Yosuke Niwa, Toshinobu Machida, Yousuke Sawa, and Hidekazu Matsueda
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 3877–3892, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3877-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3877-2017, 2017
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This study evaluated biases in GOSAT/TANSO-FTS thermal infrared (TIR) V1 CO2 product on 736–287 hPa on the basis of comparisons with CONTRAIL CME CO2 data over airports. TIR V1 CO2 data had consistent negative biases of 1–1.5 %, with the largest negative biases at 541–398 hPa. Global comparisons between TIR CO2 data to which the bias-correction values were applied and CO2 data simulated by NICAM-TM confirmed the validity of the bias-correction values evaluated over airports in limited areas.
Naveen Chandra, Sachiko Hayashida, Tazu Saeki, and Prabir K. Patra
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 12633–12643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12633-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12633-2017, 2017
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This study shows difficulties in interpreting columnar dry-air mole fractions of methane (XCH4) for surface emissions of CH4 over the South Asia region, without separating the role of chemistry and transport. Using a chemistry-transport model, we suggest that a link between surface emissions and higher levels of XCH4 is not always valid in this region of complex monsoonal meteorology, although there is often a fair correlation between the seasonal variations in surface emissions and XCH4.
Ronny Lauerwald, Pierre Regnier, Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Matthieu Guimberteau, Agnès Ducharne, Jan Polcher, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3821–3859, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3821-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3821-2017, 2017
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ORCHILEAK is a new branch of the terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE that represents dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production from canopy and soils, DOC and CO2 leaching from soils to streams, DOC decomposition, and CO2 evasion to the atmosphere during its lateral transport in rivers, as well as exchange with the soil carbon and litter stocks on floodplains and in swamps. We parameterized and validated ORCHILEAK for the Amazon basin.
Goulven G. Laruelle, Peter Landschützer, Nicolas Gruber, Jean-Louis Tison, Bruno Delille, and Pierre Regnier
Biogeosciences, 14, 4545–4561, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4545-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4545-2017, 2017
Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Vuichard, Fabienne Maignan, Albert Jornet-Puig, Jordi Sardans, Aurelie Violette, Shushi Peng, Yan Sun, Marko Kvakic, Matthieu Guimberteau, Bertrand Guenet, Soenke Zaehle, Josep Penuelas, Ivan Janssens, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3745–3770, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3745-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3745-2017, 2017
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We describe a representation of the terrestrial phosphorus cycle for the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model is able to reproduce the observed shift from nitrogen to phosphorus limited net primary productivity along a soil formation chronosequence in Hawaii, as well as the contrasting responses of net primary productivity to nutrient addition. However, the simulated nutrient use efficiencies are lower, as observed primarily due to biases in the nutrient content and turnover of woody biomass.
Dan Lu, Daniel Ricciuto, Anthony Walker, Cosmin Safta, and William Munger
Biogeosciences, 14, 4295–4314, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4295-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4295-2017, 2017
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Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is important but challenging. This study applies an advanced sampling technique for parameter estimation of a TEM. The results improve the model fit and predictive performance.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Thierry Fanin and Guido R. van der Werf
Biogeosciences, 14, 3995–4008, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3995-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3995-2017, 2017
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Using night fire detection and rainfall datasets during 1997–2015, we found that the number of night fires detected in 1997 was 2.2 times higher than in 2015, but with a higher fraction of peatland burned in 2015. We also confirmed the non-linearity of rainfall accumulation prior to a fire to indicate a high fire year. The influence of rainfall on the number of yearly fires varies across Indonesia. Southern Sumatra and Kalimantan need 120 days of observations, while northern Sumatra only 30.
Guido R. van der Werf, James T. Randerson, Louis Giglio, Thijs T. van Leeuwen, Yang Chen, Brendan M. Rogers, Mingquan Mu, Margreet J. E. van Marle, Douglas C. Morton, G. James Collatz, Robert J. Yokelson, and Prasad S. Kasibhatla
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 697–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-697-2017, 2017
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Fires occur in many vegetation types and are sometimes natural but often ignited by humans for various purposes. We have estimated how much area they burn globally and what their emissions are. Total burned area is roughly equivalent to the size of the EU with most fires burning in tropical savannas. Their emissions vary substantially from year to year and contribute to the atmospheric burdens of many trace gases and aerosols. The 20-year dataset is mostly suited for large-scale assessments.
Margreet J. E. van Marle, Silvia Kloster, Brian I. Magi, Jennifer R. Marlon, Anne-Laure Daniau, Robert D. Field, Almut Arneth, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Chao Yue, Johannes W. Kaiser, and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3329–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, 2017
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Fire emission estimates are a key input dataset for climate models. We have merged satellite information with proxy datasets and fire models to reconstruct fire emissions since 1750 AD. Our dataset indicates that, on a global scale, fire emissions were relatively constant over time. Since roughly 1950, declining emissions from savannas were approximately balanced by increased emissions from tropical deforestation zones.
Bowen Zhang, Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun Lu, Shree R. S. Dangal, Jia Yang, and Shufen Pan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 667–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-667-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-667-2017, 2017
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This work addressed how manure nitrogen (N) production and application to cropland have changed over time and space. The 5 arcmin gridded global dataset of manure nitrogen production generated from this study could be used as an input for global or regional land surface and ecosystem models to evaluate the impacts of manure nitrogen on key biogeochemical processes and water quality.
Hongyan Zhao, Xin Li, Qiang Zhang, Xujia Jiang, Jintai Lin, Glen P. Peters, Meng Li, Guannan Geng, Bo Zheng, Hong Huo, Lin Zhang, Haikun Wang, Steven J. Davis, and Kebin He
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10367–10381, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10367-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10367-2017, 2017
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Effective and efficient control of air pollution relies upon an understanding of the pollution sources. We conduct an interdisciplinary study and find that 33 % of China’s PM2.5-related premature mortality in 2010 were caused by production emission in other regions; 56 % of the mortality was related to consumption in other regions. Multilateral and multi-stage cooperation under a regional sustainable development framework is in urgent need to mitigate air pollution and related health impacts.
Richard P. Sims, Ute Schuster, Andrew J. Watson, Ming Xi Yang, Frances E. Hopkins, John Stephens, and Thomas G. Bell
Ocean Sci., 13, 649–660, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-649-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-649-2017, 2017
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This paper describes a near-surface ocean profiler (NSOP) that is deployed from a research vessel. The NSOP is used to sample the top 10 m of the ocean and pumps water back to the research ship for scientific analyses such as for trace gases. The precision in the depth of the seawater collection improves upon previous methods. The NSOP has been used to observe vertical gradients in the upper 5 m for temperature, carbon dioxide and dimethylsulfide.
Barbara Marcolla, Christian Rödenbeck, and Alessandro Cescatti
Biogeosciences, 14, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3815-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3815-2017, 2017
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Patterns and controls of the inter-annual variability of carbon net ecosystem exchange were analysed using three different data streams: ecosystem-level observations (FLUXNET database), a global upscaling of site-level fluxes (MPI-MTE), and a top–down estimate of fluxes (Jena CarboScope Inversion). Consistencies and discrepancies in the temporal and spatial patterns and in the climatic and physiological controls of the inter-annual variability were investigated for the three data sources.
Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Valerio Avitabile, Leonardo Calle, Nuno Carvalhais, Philippe Ciais, Fabian Gans, Nicolas Gruber, Jens Hartmann, Martin Herold, Kazuhito Ichii, Martin Jung, Peter Landschützer, Goulven G. Laruelle, Ronny Lauerwald, Dario Papale, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, Deepak Ray, Pierre Regnier, Christian Rödenbeck, Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, Christopher Schwalm, Gianluca Tramontana, Alexandra Tyukavina, Riccardo Valentini, Guido van der Werf, Tristram O. West, Julie E. Wolf, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 14, 3685–3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, 2017
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Here we synthesize a wide range of global spatiotemporal observational data on carbon exchanges between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. A key challenge was to consistently combining observational products of terrestrial and aquatic surfaces. Our primary goal is to identify today’s key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that would need to be addressed in future measurement campaigns or expansions of in situ observatories.
Ines Bamberger, Nadine K. Ruehr, Michael Schmitt, Andreas Gast, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 3649–3667, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, 2017
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We studied the effects of summer heatwaves and drought on photosynthesis and isoprene emissions in black locust trees. While photosynthesis decreased, isoprene emission increased sharply during the heatwaves. Comparing isoprene emissions of stressed and unstressed trees at the same temperature, however, demonstrated that stressed trees emitted less isoprene than expected. This reveals that in order to predict isoprene emissions during heat waves, model parameters need to be re-evaluated.
Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Nadine Goris, Katharina D. Six, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Christoph Heinze, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 14, 3633–3648, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3633-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3633-2017, 2017
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Transient global warming under the high emission scenario RCP8.5 is amplified by up to 6 % if a pH dependency of marine DMS production is assumed. Importantly, this additional warming is not spatially homogeneous but shows a pronounced north–south gradient. Over the Antarctic continent, the additional warming is almost twice the global average. In the Southern Ocean we find a small DMS–climate feedback that counteracts the original reduction of DMS production due to ocean acidification.
Guangsheng Chen, Shufen Pan, Daniel J. Hayes, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 545–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-545-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-545-2017, 2017
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Through synthesizing multiple inventory data sources, this study developed methods to spatialize the time series plantation forest and tree species distribution data for the conterminous US during 1928–2012. These time series and gridded data set can be readily applied in regional Earth system modeling frameworks for assessing the impacts of plantation management practices on forest productivity, carbon and nitrogen stocks, and greenhouse gas and water fluxes on regional or national scales.
Rongting Xu, Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun Lu, Shufen Pan, Jian Chen, Jia Yang, and Bowen Zhang
Clim. Past, 13, 977–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-977-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-977-2017, 2017
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As N2O emissions were present in preindustrial times, only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net human-induced climate change. Large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere. Our estimate using process-based model was the first study that provided the preindustrial N2O emission at the biome, sector or country, and global level, which could be a useful reference for future climate mitigation.
Pieter P. Tans, Andrew M. Crotwell, and Kirk W. Thoning
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2669–2685, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2669-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2669-2017, 2017
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We describe a new CO2 calibration system for the Central Calibration Laboratory of the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmosphere Watch program. The system uses two laser spectroscopic instruments to measure the three major CO2 isotopologues individually. We account for isotopic differences between standards in the calibration hierarchy when assigning CO2 mole fraction, eliminating bias due to variations in the isotopic composition.
Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Ivar R. van der Velde, Emma van der Veen, Aki Tsuruta, Karolina Stanislawska, Arne Babenhauserheide, Hui Fang Zhang, Yu Liu, Wei He, Huilin Chen, Kenneth A. Masarie, Maarten C. Krol, and Wouter Peters
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2785–2800, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2785-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2785-2017, 2017
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The CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS) is the new modular implementation of the CarbonTracker Europe (CTE) data assimilation system. We present and document CTDAS and demonstrate its ability to estimate global carbon sources and sinks. We present the latest CTE results including the distribution of the carbon sinks over the hemispheres and between the land biosphere and the oceans. We show the versatility of CTDAS with an overview of the wide range of other applications.
Elisa Lovecchio, Nicolas Gruber, Matthias Münnich, and Zouhair Lachkar
Biogeosciences, 14, 3337–3369, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3337-2017, 2017
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We find that a big portion of the phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detrital organic matter produced near the northern African coast is laterally transported towards the open North Atlantic. This offshore flux sustains a relevant part of the biological activity in the open sea and reaches as far as the middle of the North Atlantic. Our results, obtained with a state-of-the-art model, highlight the fundamental role of the narrow but productive coastal ocean in sustaining global marine life.
Ana Bastos, Anna Peregon, Érico A. Gani, Sergey Khudyaev, Chao Yue, Wei Li, Célia Gouveia, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-267, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The ice-core record indicates a stabilization of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, which is not captured by the state-of-the-art reconstructions of CO2 sources and sinks.
The 1940s where marked by major socio-economic disruptions due to war. At the same time, very strong warming was registered in the high-latitudes. Here we evaluate the contributions of these two factors to a possible increase in the terrestrial sink not captured in other datasets, using the Former Soviet Union as a case study.
Rachel M. Law, Tilo Ziehn, Richard J. Matear, Andrew Lenton, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Lauren E. Stevens, Ying-Ping Wang, Jhan Srbinovsky, Daohua Bi, Hailin Yan, and Peter F. Vohralik
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2567–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, 2017
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The paper describes a version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator that has been enabled to simulate the carbon cycle, which is designated ACCESS-ESM1. The model performance for pre-industrial conditions is assessed and land and ocean carbon fluxes are found to be simulated realistically.
Tilo Ziehn, Andrew Lenton, Rachel M. Law, Richard J. Matear, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2591–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2591-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2591-2017, 2017
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Our work presents the evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) over the historical period (1850–2005). The main focus is on climate and carbon related variables. Globally integrated land–atmosphere and ocean–atmosphere fluxes and flux patterns are well reproduced and show good agreement with most recent observations. This makes ACCESS-ESM1 a useful tool to explore the change in land and oceanic carbon uptake in the future.
Priscilla Le Mézo, Luc Beaufort, Laurent Bopp, Pascale Braconnot, and Masa Kageyama
Clim. Past, 13, 759–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-759-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-759-2017, 2017
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This paper focuses on the relationship between Arabian Sea biological productivity and the Indian summer monsoon in climates of the last 72 kyr. A general circulation model coupled to a biogeochemistry model simulates the changes in productivity and monsoon intensity and pattern. The paradigm stating that a stronger summer monsoon enhances productivity is not always verified in our simulations. This work highlights the importance of considering the monsoon pattern in addition to its intensity.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
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There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Anna M. Michalak, Nina A. Randazzo, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7405–7421, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7405-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7405-2017, 2017
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The use of inverse modeling for quantifying emissions of greenhouse gases is increasing. Estimates are very difficult to evaluate objectively, however, due to limited atmospheric observations and the lack of direct emissions measurements at compatible scales. Diagnostic tools have been proposed to partially circumvent these limitations. This paper presents the first systematic review of the scope and applicability of these tools for atmospheric inversions of long-lived greenhouse gases.
Richard J. Millar, Zebedee R. Nicholls, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Myles R. Allen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7213–7228, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017, 2017
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Simple representations of the global coupled climate–carbon-cycle system are required for climate policy analysis. Existing models have often failed to capture important physical dependencies of the climate response to carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper we propose a simple but novel modification to impulse-response climate–carbon-cycle models to capture these physical dependencies. This simple model creates an important tool for both climate policy and climate science analysis.
Yosuke Niwa, Yosuke Fujii, Yousuke Sawa, Yosuke Iida, Akihiko Ito, Masaki Satoh, Ryoichi Imasu, Kazuhiro Tsuboi, Hidekazu Matsueda, and Nobuko Saigusa
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2201–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2201-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2201-2017, 2017
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A new 4D-Var inversion system based on the icosahedral grid model, NICAM, is introduced and tested. Adding to the offline forward and adjoint models, this study has introduced the optimization method of POpULar; it does not require difficult decomposition of a matrix that establishes the correlation among the prior flux errors. In identical twin experiments of atmospheric CO2 inversion, the system successfully reproduces the spatiotemporal variations of the surface fluxes.
Jerónimo Escribano, Olivier Boucher, Frédéric Chevallier, and Nicolás Huneeus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7111–7126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7111-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7111-2017, 2017
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Top-down estimates of mineral dust flux usually rely on a single observational dataset whose observational errors propagate onto the emission estimates. Aerosol optical depth from five satellites are assimilated one by one into a source inversion system over northern Africa. We find a relatively large dispersion in flux estimates among the five experiments, which can likely be attributed to differences in the assimilated observational datasets and their associated error statistics.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Sabina Assan, Alexia Baudic, Ali Guemri, Philippe Ciais, Valerie Gros, and Felix R. Vogel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2077–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2077-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2077-2017, 2017
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This study is dedicated to improving measurement methods when using a Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy instrument to measure methane at sites with elevated ethane concentrations such as Oil and Gas sites. The research was undertaken after measurements of natural gas samples suggested biased δ13CH4 results. Two instruments were extensively tested to characterize the cross sensitivities to ethane and δ13CH4 and propose corrections. Results indicate that it is imperative to account for the biases.
Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David M. Etheridge, Paul J. Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul B. Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Ian G. Enting, Rachel M. Law, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray Weiss
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017
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Climate change is primarily driven by human-induced increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Based on ongoing community efforts (e.g. AGAGE and NOAA networks, ice cores), this study presents historical concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and 40 other GHGs from year 0 to year 2014. The data is recommended as input for climate models for pre-industrial, historical runs under CMIP6. Global means, but also latitudinal by monthly surface concentration fields are provided.
Kathrin M. Keller, Sebastian Lienert, Anil Bozbiyik, Thomas F. Stocker, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), David C. Frank, Stefan Klesse, Charles D. Koven, Markus Leuenberger, William J. Riley, Matthias Saurer, Rolf Siegwolf, Rosemarie B. Weigt, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 14, 2641–2673, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, 2017
Reinhard Prestele, Almut Arneth, Alberte Bondeau, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Stephen Sitch, Elke Stehfest, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 369–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, 2017
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Land-use change is still overly simplistically implemented in global ecosystem and climate models. We identify and discuss three major challenges at the interface of land-use and climate modeling and propose ways for how to improve land-use representation in climate models. We conclude that land-use data-provider and user communities need to engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced land-use datasets to improve the quantification of land use–climate interactions and feedback.
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
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The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Xu Yue, Nadine Unger, Kandice Harper, Xiangao Xia, Hong Liao, Tong Zhu, Jingfeng Xiao, Zhaozhong Feng, and Jing Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6073–6089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6073-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6073-2017, 2017
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While it is widely recognized that air pollutants adversely affect human health and climate change, their impacts on the regional carbon balance are less well understood. We apply an Earth system model to quantify the combined effects of ozone and aerosol particles on net primary production in China. Ozone vegetation damage dominates over the aerosol effects, leading to a substantial net suppression of land carbon uptake in the present and future worlds.
Shreeya Verma, Julia Marshall, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Kai Uwe Totsche
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5665–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5665-2017, 2017
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The inverse modelling approach for estimating surface fluxes is based on transport models that have an imperfect representation of atmospheric processes like vertical mixing. In this paper, we show how assimilating commercial aircraft-based vertical profiles of CO2 into inverse models can help reduce error due to the transport model, thus providing more accurate estimates of surface fluxes. Further, the reduction in flux uncertainty due to aircraft profiles from the IAGOS project is quantified.
Olivier Aumont, Marco van Hulten, Matthieu Roy-Barman, Jean-Claude Dutay, Christian Éthé, and Marion Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 14, 2321–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2321-2017, 2017
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The marine biological carbon pump is dominated by the vertical transfer of particulate organic carbon (POC) from the surface ocean to its interior. In this study, we explore the impacts of a variable composition of this organic matter using a global ocean biogeochemical model. We show that accounting for a variable lability of POC increases POC concentrations by up to 2 orders of magnitude in the ocean's interior. Furthermore, the amount of carbon that reaches the sediments is twice as large.
Leif G. Anderson, Göran Björk, Ola Holby, Sara Jutterström, Carl Magnus Mörth, Matt O'Regan, Christof Pearce, Igor Semiletov, Christian Stranne, Tim Stöven, Toste Tanhua, Adam Ulfsbo, and Martin Jakobsson
Ocean Sci., 13, 349–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-349-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-349-2017, 2017
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We use data collected in 2014 to show that the outflow of nutrient-rich water occurs much further to the west than has been reported in the past. We suggest that this is due to much less summer sea-ice coverage in the northwestern East Siberian Sea than in the past decades. Further, our data support a more complicated flow pattern in the region where the Mendeleev Ridge reaches the shelf compared to the general cyclonic circulation within the individual basins as suggested historically.
Jiye Zeng, Tsuneo Matsunaga, Nobuko Saigusa, Tomoko Shirai, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, and Zheng-Hong Tan
Ocean Sci., 13, 303–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-303-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-303-2017, 2017
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Three machine learning models were investigated for the reconstruction of global surface ocean CO2 concentration. They include self-organizing maps (SOMs), feedforward neural networks (FNNs), and support vector machines (SVMs). Our results show that the SVM performs the best, the FNN the second, and the SOM the worst. While the SOM does not have over-fitting problems, it is sensitive to data scaling and its discrete interpolation may not be good for some applications.
Adrien Napoly, Aaron Boone, Patrick Samuelsson, Stefan Gollvik, Eric Martin, Roland Seferian, Dominique Carrer, Bertrand Decharme, and Lionel Jarlan
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1621–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1621-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1621-2017, 2017
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This paper is the second part of a new parameterization for canopy representation that has been developed in the Interactions between the Surface Biosphere Atmosphere model (ISBA). A module for the explicit representation of the litter bellow forest canopies has been added. Then, the first evaluation of these new developments is performed at local scale among three well-instrumented sites and then at the global scale using the FLUXNET network.
Liang Feng, Paul I. Palmer, Hartmut Bösch, Robert J. Parker, Alex J. Webb, Caio S. C. Correia, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Lucas G. Domingues, Dietrich G. Feist, Luciana V. Gatti, Emanuel Gloor, Frank Hase, Rigel Kivi, Yi Liu, John B. Miller, Isamu Morino, Ralf Sussmann, Kimberly Strong, Osamu Uchino, Jing Wang, and Andreas Zahn
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4781–4797, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4781-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4781-2017, 2017
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We use the GEOS-Chem global 3-D model of atmospheric chemistry and transport and an ensemble Kalman filter to simultaneously infer regional fluxes of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) directly from GOSAT retrievals of XCH4:XCO2, using sparse ground-based CH4 and CO2 mole fraction data to anchor the ratio. Our results show that assimilation of GOSAT data significantly reduced the posterior uncertainty and changed the a priori spatial distribution of CH4 emissions.
Tea Thum, Sönke Zaehle, Philipp Köhler, Tuula Aalto, Mika Aurela, Luis Guanter, Pasi Kolari, Tuomas Laurila, Annalea Lohila, Federico Magnani, Christiaan Van Der Tol, and Tiina Markkanen
Biogeosciences, 14, 1969–1987, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1969-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1969-2017, 2017
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Modelling seasonal cycle at the coniferous forests poses a challenge. We implemented a model for sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to a land surface model JSBACH. It was used to study the seasonality of the carbon cycle in the Fenno-Scandinavian region. Comparison was made to direct CO2 flux measurements and satellite observations of SIF. SIF proved to be a better proxy for photosynthesis than the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation.
Hyeong-Ahn Kwon, Rokjin J. Park, Jaein I. Jeong, Seungun Lee, Gonzalo González Abad, Thomas P. Kurosu, Paul I. Palmer, and Kelly Chance
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4673–4686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4673-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4673-2017, 2017
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A geostationary satellite can measure daytime hourly HCHO columns. Atmospheric conditions such as synoptic meteorology and the presence of other gases and aerosols may affect HCHO measurements. We examine the effects of their temporal variation on the HCHO measurement of a geostationary satellite in East Asia. We find that the hourly variation of other species could be important. Especially the inclusion of hourly aerosol variation in the retrieval could lead to improving HCHO measurements.
Thomas Gasser, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, William J. Collins, Drew T. Shindell, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 235–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, 2017
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Emission metrics such as GWP or GTP are used to put non-CO2 species on a
CO2-equivalentscale. In the fifth IPCC report the metrics are inconsistent, as the climate–carbon feedback is included only for CO2 but not for non-CO2 species. Here, we simulate a new impulse response function for the feedback, and we use it to correct the metrics. For instance, 1 g of CH4 is equivalent to 31 g of CO2 (instead of 28 g) following the corrected GWP100 metric. It is 34 g if other factors are also updated.
Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Christian Folberth, Michael Glotter, Steven Hoek, Toshichika Iizumi, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Peter Lawrence, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Deepak K. Ray, Ashwan Reddy, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C. Ruane, Gen Sakurai, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalsky, Carol X. Song, Xuhui Wang, Allard de Wit, and Hong Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1403–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, 2017
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Crop models are increasingly used in climate change impact research and integrated assessments. For the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) have supplied crop yield simulations (1980–2010) for maize, wheat, rice and soybean. We evaluate the performance of these models against observational data at global, national and grid cell level. We propose an open-access benchmark system against which future model versions can be tested.
Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, Leif Backman, Janne Hakkarainen, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Maarten C. Krol, Renato Spahni, Sander Houweling, Marko Laine, Ed Dlugokencky, Angel J. Gomez-Pelaez, Marcel van der Schoot, Ray Langenfelds, Raymond Ellul, Jgor Arduini, Francesco Apadula, Christoph Gerbig, Dietrich G. Feist, Rigel Kivi, Yukio Yoshida, and Wouter Peters
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1261–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1261-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1261-2017, 2017
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In this study, we found that the average global methane emission for 2000–2012, estimated by the CTE-CH4 model, was 516±51 Tg CH4 yr-1, and the estimates for 2007–2012 were 4 % larger than for 2000–2006. The model estimates are sensitive to inputs and setups, but according to sensitivity tests the study suggests that the increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during 21st century was due to an increase in emissions from the 35S-EQ latitudinal bands.
Karina Williams, Jemma Gornall, Anna Harper, Andy Wiltshire, Debbie Hemming, Tristan Quaife, Tim Arkebauer, and David Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1291–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, 2017
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This study looks in detail at how well the crop model within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), a community land-surface model, is able to simulate irrigated maize in Nebraska. We use the results to point to future priorities for model development and describe how our methodology can be adapted to set up model runs for other sites and crop varieties.
Yi Yin, Frederic Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Anne Cozic, Sophie Szopa, and Yilong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-166, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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CO inverse modelling studies have so far reported significant discrepancies between model concentrations optimised with the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite retrievals and surface in-situ measurements. Here, we assess how well a global CTM fits a large variety of independent CO observations before and after assimilating MOPITTv6 retrievals to optimise CO sources/sink and discuss potential sources of errors and their implications for global CO modelling studies.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, and Glen P. Peters
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-25, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Yosuke Niwa, Hirofumi Tomita, Masaki Satoh, Ryoichi Imasu, Yousuke Sawa, Kazuhiro Tsuboi, Hidekazu Matsueda, Toshinobu Machida, Motoki Sasakawa, Boris Belan, and Nobuko Saigusa
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1157–1174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1157-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1157-2017, 2017
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We have developed forward and adjoint models based on NICAM-TM, as part of the 4D-Var system for atmospheric GHGs inversions. The models are computationally efficient enough to make the 4D-Var iterative calculation feasible. Trajectory analysis for high-CO2 concentration events are performed to test adjoint sensitivities; we also demonstrate the potential usefulness of our adjoint model for diagnosing tracer transport.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
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Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Mohamed Ayache, Jean-Claude Dutay, Anne Mouchet, Nadine Tisnérat-Laborde, Paolo Montagna, Toste Tanhua, Giuseppe Siani, and Philippe Jean-Baptiste
Biogeosciences, 14, 1197–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1197-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1197-2017, 2017
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A high-resolution dynamical model was used to give the first simulation of the distribution of natural and anthropogenic radiocarbon (14C) across the whole Mediterranean Sea. The model correctly simulates the main features of 14C distribution during and after the bomb perturbation. The results demonstrate the major influence of the flux of Atlantic water through the Strait of Gibraltar, and a significant increase in 14C in the Aegean deep water during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient event.
Marco van Hulten, Rob Middag, Jean-Claude Dutay, Hein de Baar, Matthieu Roy-Barman, Marion Gehlen, Alessandro Tagliabue, and Andreas Sterl
Biogeosciences, 14, 1123–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1123-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1123-2017, 2017
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We ran a global ocean model to understand manganese (Mn), a biologically essential element. Our model shows that (i) in the deep ocean, dissolved [Mn] is mostly homogeneous ~0.10—0.15 nM. The model reproduces this with a threshold on MnO2 of 25 pM, suggesting a minimal particle concentration is needed before aggregation and removal become efficient.
(ii) The observed distinct hydrothermal signals are produced by assuming both a strong source and a strong removal of Mn near hydrothermal vents.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Ciais, Agnès Ducharne, Juan Pablo Boisier, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Hester Biemans, Hannes De Deurwaerder, David Galbraith, Bart Kruijt, Fanny Langerwisch, German Poveda, Anja Rammig, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Graciela Tejada, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso Von Randow, Rita C. S. Von Randow, Ke Zhang, and Hans Verbeeck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, 2017
Chaoqun Lu and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 181–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-181-2017, 2017
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This work has addressed how agricultural nitrogen and phosphorous fertilizer use has changed over time and space. The final product covers global agricultural land, spanning from 1961 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° latitude by longitude. It can serve as an important input driver for regional and global assessment and Earth system modeling of agricultural productivity, crop yield, greenhouse gas balance, global nutrient budget, and ecosystem feedback to climate.
Mehliyar Sadiq, Amos P. K. Tai, Danica Lombardozzi, and Maria Val Martin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3055–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3055-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3055-2017, 2017
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Surface ozone harms vegetation, which can influence not only climate but also ozone air quality itself. We implement a scheme for ozone damage on vegetation into an Earth system model, so that for the first time simulated vegetation and ozone can coevolve in a fully coupled simulation. With ozone–vegetation coupling, simulated ozone is found to be significantly higher by up to 6 ppbv. Reduced dry deposition and enhanced isoprene emission contribute to most of these increases.
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
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Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Peter M. Anthoni, Richard Fuchs, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 91–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, 2017
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We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a dynamic global vegetation model. Different historical reconstructions yielded an uncertainty of ca. ±30 % in the mean annual land use emission over the last decades. Accounting for the parallel expansion and abandonment of croplands on a sub-grid level (tropical shifting cultivation) substantially increased the effect of land use on carbon stocks and fluxes compared to only accounting for net effects.
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
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This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
Xu Yue and Nadine Unger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1329–1342, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1329-2017, 2017
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We study aerosol effects on net primary productivity (NPP) in China through perturbations in diffuse and direct radiation. Regional NPP responses are diverse, depending on local aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud amount. Two AOD threshold maps are derived to determine the potential for aerosol diffuse fertilization effects. The net impact of aerosol pollution is limited in China due to dense cloud cover, as well as the offset between regional fertilization and inhibition on NPP.
Danica L. Lombardozzi, Melanie J. B. Zeppel, Rosie A. Fisher, and Ahmed Tawfik
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 321–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-321-2017, 2017
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Earth's terrestrial surface influences climate by exchanging carbon and water with the atmosphere through stomatal pores. However, most land-surface models, used to predict global carbon and water fluxes, estimate that water lost through stomata is less than what observations show. In this study, we integrate plant water loss data from 204 species into a global land surface model, finding that global estimates of plant water loss increase, soil moisture decreases, and carbon gain also decreases.
Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Olivier Boucher, Yann Quilcaille, Maxime Tortora, Laurent Bopp, and Didier Hauglustaine
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 271–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, 2017
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Simple models of the Earth system are useful, especially because of their high computing efficiency. This work describes the OSCAR model: a new simple Earth system model calibrated on state-of-the-art complex models. It will add to the pool of the few simple models currently used by the community, and it will therefore improve the robustness of future studies. Its source code is available upon request.
Tamás Kovács, Wuhu Feng, Anna Totterdill, John M. C. Plane, Sandip Dhomse, Juan Carlos Gómez-Martín, Gabriele P. Stiller, Florian J. Haenel, Christopher Smith, Piers M. Forster, Rolando R. García, Daniel R. Marsh, and Martyn P. Chipperfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 883–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-883-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-883-2017, 2017
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Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a very potent greenhouse gas, which is present in the atmosphere only through its industrial use, for example as an electrical insulator. To estimate accurately the impact of SF6 emissions on climate we need to know how long it persists in the atmosphere before being removed. Previous estimates of the SF6 lifetime indicate a large degree of uncertainty. Here we use a detailed atmospheric model to calculate a current best estimate of the SF6 lifetime.
Henry C. Bittig and Arne Körtzinger
Ocean Sci., 13, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-1-2017, 2017
Martina Franz, David Simpson, Almut Arneth, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 45–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-45-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-45-2017, 2017
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Ozone is a toxic air pollutant that can damage plant leaves and impact their carbon uptake from the atmosphere. We extend a terrestrial biosphere model to account for ozone damage of plants and investigate the impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Our approach accounts for ozone transport from the free troposphere to leaf level. We find that this substantially affects simulated ozone uptake into the plants. Simulations indicate that ozone damages plants less than expected from previous studies
Sander Houweling, Peter Bergamaschi, Frederic Chevallier, Martin Heimann, Thomas Kaminski, Maarten Krol, Anna M. Michalak, and Prabir Patra
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 235–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-235-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-235-2017, 2017
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The aim of this paper is to present an overview of inverse modeling methods, developed over the years, for estimating the global sources and sinks of the greenhouse gas methane from atmospheric measurements. It provides insight into how techniques and estimates have evolved over time, what the remaining shortcomings are, new developments, and promising future directions.
Pearse J. Buchanan, Richard J. Matear, Andrew Lenton, Steven J. Phipps, Zanna Chase, and David M. Etheridge
Clim. Past, 12, 2271–2295, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2271-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2271-2016, 2016
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We quantify the contributions of physical and biogeochemical changes in the ocean to enhancing ocean carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum. We find that simulated circulation and surface conditions cannot explain changes in carbon storage or other major biogeochemical fields that existed during the glacial climate. Key modifications to the functioning of the biological pump are therefore required to explain the glacial climate and improve model–proxy agreement for all fields.
Lamia Ammoura, Irène Xueref-Remy, Felix Vogel, Valérie Gros, Alexia Baudic, Bernard Bonsang, Marc Delmotte, Yao Té, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 15653–15664, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15653-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-15653-2016, 2016
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We propose a new approach to estimate urban emission ratios that takes advantage of the enhanced local urban signal in the atmosphere at low wind speed. We apply it to estimate monthly ratios between CO2, CO and some VOCs from atmospheric measurement datasets acquired in the centre of Paris between 2010 and 2014. We find that this approach is little sensitive to the regional background level definition. With this new method, we may reveal spatial and seasonal variability in the ratios in Paris.
Christian Folberth, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Juraj Balkovic, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis D. Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Wenfeng Liu, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalský, Hong Yang, Almut Arneth, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Peter J. Lawrence, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Alex C. Ruane, and Xuhui Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Global crop models differ in numerous aspects such as algorithms, parameterization, input data, and management assumptions. This study compares five global crop model frameworks, all based on the same field-scale model, to identify differences induced by the latter three. Results indicate that foremost nutrient supply, soil handling, and crop management induce substantial differences in crop yield estimates whereas crop cultivars primarily result in scaling of yield levels.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Cathy M. Trudinger, Vanessa Haverd, Peter R. Briggs, and Josep G. Canadell
Biogeosciences, 13, 6363–6383, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6363-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6363-2016, 2016
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Semi-arid ecosystems in Australia are responsible for a significant part of the variability in global atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here we use Australian observations to estimate parameters in a land surface model of carbon and water cycles. We quantify the variability in Australian carbon fluxes between 1982 and 2013, including the large uptake in 2011 associated with exceptionally wet conditions following a prolonged drought. We estimate the effect of parameter uncertainty on these estimates.
Johannes Staufer, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Vincent Puygrenier, Frédéric Chevallier, Irène Xueref-Rémy, Elsa Dieudonné, Morgan Lopez, Martina Schmidt, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Perrussel, Christine Lac, Lin Wu, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14703–14726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14703-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14703-2016, 2016
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Ben Booth, Richard Betts, Peter Challenor, Andy Wiltshire, and David Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, 2016
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We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land surface component of a climate model.
We find that the model is unlikely to be able to simulate the Amazon and other major forests simultaneously at any one parameter set, suggesting a bias in the model's representation of the Amazon.
We find we cannot constrain parameters individually, but we can rule out large areas of joint parameter space.
Eleonora Aruffo, Fabio Biancofiore, Piero Di Carlo, Marcella Busilacchio, Marco Verdecchia, Barbara Tomassetti, Cesare Dari-Salisburgo, Franco Giammaria, Stephane Bauguitte, James Lee, Sarah Moller, James Hopkins, Shalini Punjabi, Stephen J. Andrews, Alistair C. Lewis, Paul I. Palmer, Edward Hyer, Michael Le Breton, and Carl Percival
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5591–5606, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5591-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5591-2016, 2016
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During the BORTAS aircraft campaign, we measured NO2 and their oxidtation products (as peroxy nitrates) with a custom laser-induced fluorescence instrument. Because of the high correlation between known pyrogenic tracers (i.e., carbon monoxide) and peroxy nitrates, we provide two methods to use these species for the identification of biomass burning (BB) plumes. Using an artifical neural network, we improved the BB identification taking into account of a meteorological parameter (pressure).
Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Bengang Li, Xin Lin, Shu Tao, Zhiping Wang, Yuan Zhang, and Feng Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14545–14562, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14545-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14545-2016, 2016
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas, which accounts for about 20 % of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. Anthropogenic methane emissions from China may have been growing rapidly in the past decades because of increased coal mining and fast growing livestock. A good long-term methane emissions dataset is still lacking. Here, we produced a detailed bottom-up inventory of anthropogenic methane emissions from the eight major source sectors in China during 1980–2010.
Kerstin Engström, Stefan Olin, Mark D. A. Rounsevell, Sara Brogaard, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Alexander, Dave Murray-Rust, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 893–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016, 2016
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The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.
Palmira Messina, Juliette Lathière, Katerina Sindelarova, Nicolas Vuichard, Claire Granier, Josefine Ghattas, Anne Cozic, and Didier A. Hauglustaine
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14169–14202, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14169-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14169-2016, 2016
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We provide BVOC emissions for the present scenario, employing the updated ORCHIDEE emission module and the MEGAN model. The modelling community still faces the problem of emission model evaluation because of the absence of adequate observations. The accurate analysis performed, employing the two models, allowed the various processes modelled to be investigated, in order to fully understand the origin of the mismatch between the model estimates and to quantify the emission uncertainties.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Igor B. Konovalov, Evgeny V. Berezin, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Ruslan V. Zhuravlev, and Greet Janssens-Maenhout
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13509–13540, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13509-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13509-2016, 2016
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The knowledge of CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel (FF) burning is of paramount importance both for climate prediction and mitigation policy purposes. The paper introduces a method to indirectly constrain a regional budget of FF CO2 emissions by using satellite measurements of "proxy" chemical species and evaluates its potential in application to a western European region.
Eva van Gorsel, Sebastian Wolf, James Cleverly, Peter Isaac, Vanessa Haverd, Cäcilia Ewenz, Stefan Arndt, Jason Beringer, Víctor Resco de Dios, Bradley J. Evans, Anne Griebel, Lindsay B. Hutley, Trevor Keenan, Natascha Kljun, Craig Macfarlane, Wayne S. Meyer, Ian McHugh, Elise Pendall, Suzanne M. Prober, and Richard Silberstein
Biogeosciences, 13, 5947–5964, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5947-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5947-2016, 2016
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Temperature extremes are expected to become more prevalent in the future and understanding ecosystem response is crucial. We synthesised measurements and model results to investigate the effect of a summer heat wave on carbon and water exchange across three biogeographic regions in southern Australia. Forests proved relatively resilient to short-term heat extremes but the response of woodlands indicates that the carbon sinks of large areas of Australia may not be sustainable in a future climate.
Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Ian McHugh, Stefan K. Arndt, David Campbell, Helen A. Cleugh, James Cleverly, Víctor Resco de Dios, Derek Eamus, Bradley Evans, Cacilia Ewenz, Peter Grace, Anne Griebel, Vanessa Haverd, Nina Hinko-Najera, Alfredo Huete, Peter Isaac, Kasturi Kanniah, Ray Leuning, Michael J. Liddell, Craig Macfarlane, Wayne Meyer, Caitlin Moore, Elise Pendall, Alison Phillips, Rebecca L. Phillips, Suzanne M. Prober, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, Susanna Rutledge, Ivan Schroder, Richard Silberstein, Patricia Southall, Mei Sun Yee, Nigel J. Tapper, Eva van Gorsel, Camilla Vote, Jeff Walker, and Tim Wardlaw
Biogeosciences, 13, 5895–5916, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5895-2016, 2016
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OzFlux is the regional Australian and New Zealand flux tower network that aims to provide a continental-scale national facility to monitor and assess trends, and improve predictions, of Australia’s terrestrial biosphere and climate. We describe the evolution, design, and status as well as an overview of data processing. We suggest that a synergistic approach is required to address all of the spatial, ecological, human, and cultural challenges of managing Australian ecosystems.
Meike Becker, Nils Andersen, Helmut Erlenkeuser, Matthew P. Humphreys, Toste Tanhua, and Arne Körtzinger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 559–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-559-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-559-2016, 2016
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The stable carbon isotope composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13C-DIC) can be used to quantify fluxes within the marine carbon system such as the exchange between ocean and atmosphere or the amount of anthropogenic carbon in the water column. In this study, an internally consistent δ13C-DIC dataset for the North Atlantic is presented. The data have undergone a secondary quality control during which systematic biases between the respective cruises have been quantified and adjusted.
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Martin Herold, Mariana C. Rufino, Todd S. Rosenstock, Richard A. Houghton, Simone Rossi, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Stephen Ogle, Benjamin Poulter, Louis Verchot, Christopher Martius, and Sytze de Bruin
Biogeosciences, 13, 5799–5819, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5799-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5799-2016, 2016
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The land use sector (AFOLU) is a pivotal component of countries' mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement. Global land use data are therefore important to complement and fill in countries' data gaps. But how different are the existing AFOLU datasets and why? Here we contrast six AFOLU datasets for the tropics at different levels of aggregation (spatial, gases, emission sources) and point out possible reasons for the observed differences and the next steps to improve land use emissions.
Sylvia S. Nyawira, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Axel Don, Victor Brovkin, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 13, 5661–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, 2016
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We introduce an approach applicable to dynamic global vegetation models for evaluating simulated soil carbon changes from land-use changes against meta-analyses. The approach makes use of the large spatial coverage of the observations, and accounts for different ages of the sampled land-use transitions. The evaluation offers an opportunity for identifying causes of model–data discrepancies. Applied to the model JSBACH, we find that introducing crop harvest substantially improves the results.
Björn Fiedler, Damian S. Grundle, Florian Schütte, Johannes Karstensen, Carolin R. Löscher, Helena Hauss, Hannes Wagner, Alexandra Loginova, Rainer Kiko, Péricles Silva, Toste Tanhua, and Arne Körtzinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 5633–5647, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5633-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5633-2016, 2016
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Oxygen-depleted mesoscale features in the open eastern tropical North Atlantic, which are formed in the Mauritanian upwelling region, were discovered recently. This study examines biogeochemical structure and magnitudes of related processes within these isolated water masses. We found very low oxygen concentrations and strongly enhanced acidity at near-surface depth. Oxygen utilization and downward carbon export were found to exceed known values for this ocean region.
Marta Camino-Serrano, Elisabeth Graf Pannatier, Sara Vicca, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Mathieu Jonard, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Bert Gielen, Josep Peñuelas, Jordi Sardans, Peter Waldner, Sophia Etzold, Guia Cecchini, Nicholas Clarke, Zoran Galić, Laure Gandois, Karin Hansen, Jim Johnson, Uwe Klinck, Zora Lachmanová, Antti-Jussi Lindroos, Henning Meesenburg, Tiina M. Nieminen, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Kasia Sawicka, Walter Seidling, Anne Thimonier, Elena Vanguelova, Arne Verstraeten, Lars Vesterdal, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 13, 5567–5585, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5567-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5567-2016, 2016
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We investigated the long-term trends of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in soil solution and the drivers of changes in over 100 forest monitoring plots across Europe. An overall increasing trend was detected in the organic layers, but no overall trend was found in the mineral horizons. There are strong interactions between controls acting at local and regional scales. Our findings are relevant for researchers focusing on the link between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and for C-cycle models.
Natasha MacBean, Philippe Peylin, Frédéric Chevallier, Marko Scholze, and Gregor Schürmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3569–3588, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3569-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3569-2016, 2016
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Model projections of the response of the terrestrial biosphere to anthropogenic emissions are uncertain, in part due to unknown fixed parameters in a model. Data assimilation can address this by using observations to optimise these parameter values. Using multiple types of data is beneficial for constraining different model processes, but it can also pose challenges in a DA context. This paper demonstrates and discusses the issues involved using toy models and examples from existing literature.
Brian C. O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jason Lowe, Gerald A. Meehl, Richard Moss, Keywan Riahi, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016
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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. The design consists of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions. Climate model projections will facilitate integrated studies of climate change as well as address targeted scientific questions.
Robert Pincus, Piers M. Forster, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3447–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3447-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3447-2016, 2016
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This paper describes an experimental protocol to understand the changes in energy balance (the "radiative forcing") that arise due to changes in atmospheric composition and why this value is not the same across climate models. The protocol includes a way to determine the total forcing to which each model is subjected, experiments designed at teasing out why certain errors occur, and experiments to identify any robust signals caused by atmospheric particles from human activities.
Dennis Booge, Christa A. Marandino, Cathleen Schlundt, Paul I. Palmer, Michael Schlundt, Elliot L. Atlas, Astrid Bracher, Eric S. Saltzman, and Douglas W. R. Wallace
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11807–11821, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11807-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11807-2016, 2016
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Isoprene, a biogenic trace gas, is an important precursor of secondary organic aerosol/cloud condensation nuclei. Here, we use isoprene and related field measurements from three different ocean data sets together with remotely sensed satellite data to model global marine isoprene emissions. Our findings suggest that there is at least one missing oceanic source of isoprene and possibly other unknown factors in the ocean or atmosphere influencing the atmospheric values.
Philippe Peylin, Cédric Bacour, Natasha MacBean, Sébastien Leonard, Peter Rayner, Sylvain Kuppel, Ernest Koffi, Abdou Kane, Fabienne Maignan, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, and Pascal Prunet
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3321–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3321-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3321-2016, 2016
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The study describes a carbon cycle data assimilation system that uses satellite observations of vegetation activity, net ecosystem exchange of carbon and water at many sites and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, in order to optimize the parameters of the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The optimized model is able to fit all three data streams leading to a land carbon uptake similar to independent estimates, which opens new perspectives for better prediction of the land carbon balance.
Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul J. Durack, Alistair J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, Claus W. Böning, Eric P. Chassignet, Enrique Curchitser, Julie Deshayes, Helge Drange, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Peter J. Gleckler, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helmuth Haak, Robert W. Hallberg, Patrick Heimbach, Helene T. Hewitt, David M. Holland, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Yoshiki Komuro, John P. Krasting, William G. Large, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Trevor J. McDougall, A. J. George Nurser, James C. Orr, Anna Pirani, Fangli Qiao, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, Anne Marie Treguier, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Petteri Uotila, Maria Valdivieso, Qiang Wang, Michael Winton, and Stephen G. Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This document defines OMIP and details a protocol both for simulating global ocean/sea-ice models and for analysing their output.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 745–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, 2016
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We used a vegetation model to study the legacy effects of different land-use histories on ecosystem recovery in a range of environmental conditions. We found that recovery trajectories are crucially influenced by type and duration of former agricultural land use, especially for soil carbon. Spatially, we found the greatest sensitivity to land-use history in boreal forests and subtropical grasslands. These results are relevant for measurements, climate modeling and afforestation projects.
Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Benjamin Pfeil, Camilla S. Landa, Nicolas Metzl, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Karl Smith, Cathy Cosca, Sumiko Harasawa, Stephen D. Jones, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, Ute Schuster, Tobias Steinhoff, Colm Sweeney, Taro Takahashi, Bronte Tilbrook, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Simone R. Alin, Carlos F. Balestrini, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Alejandro A. Bianchi, Frédéric Bonou, Jacqueline Boutin, Yann Bozec, Eugene F. Burger, Wei-Jun Cai, Robert D. Castle, Liqi Chen, Melissa Chierici, Kim Currie, Wiley Evans, Charles Featherstone, Richard A. Feely, Agneta Fransson, Catherine Goyet, Naomi Greenwood, Luke Gregor, Steven Hankin, Nick J. Hardman-Mountford, Jérôme Harlay, Judith Hauck, Mario Hoppema, Matthew P. Humphreys, Christopher W. Hunt, Betty Huss, J. Severino P. Ibánhez, Truls Johannessen, Ralph Keeling, Vassilis Kitidis, Arne Körtzinger, Alex Kozyr, Evangelia Krasakopoulou, Akira Kuwata, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Claire Lo Monaco, Ansley Manke, Jeremy T. Mathis, Liliane Merlivat, Frank J. Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Akihiko Murata, Timothy Newberger, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Kristina Paterson, David Pearce, Denis Pierrot, Lisa L. Robbins, Shu Saito, Joe Salisbury, Reiner Schlitzer, Bernd Schneider, Roland Schweitzer, Rainer Sieger, Ingunn Skjelvan, Kevin F. Sullivan, Stewart C. Sutherland, Adrienne J. Sutton, Kazuaki Tadokoro, Maciej Telszewski, Matthias Tuma, Steven M. A. C. van Heuven, Doug Vandemark, Brian Ward, Andrew J. Watson, and Suqing Xu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 383–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-383-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-383-2016, 2016
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Version 3 of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (www.socat.info) has 14.5 million CO2 (carbon dioxide) values for the years 1957 to 2014 covering the global oceans and coastal seas. Version 3 is an update to version 2 with a longer record and 44 % more CO2 values. The CO2 measurements have been made on ships, fixed moorings and drifting buoys. SOCAT enables quantification of the ocean carbon sink and ocean acidification, as well as model evaluation, thus informing climate negotiations.
Ingrid Super, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Michiel K. van der Molen, Hendrika A. M. Sterk, Arjan Hensen, and Wouter Peters
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-807, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Anna Totterdill, Tamás Kovács, Wuhu Feng, Sandip Dhomse, Christopher J. Smith, Juan Carlos Gómez-Martín, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and John M. C. Plane
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11451–11463, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11451-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11451-2016, 2016
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In this study we have experimentally determined the infrared absorption cross sections of NF3 and CFC-115, calculated the radiative forcing and efficiency using two radiative transfer models and identified the effect of clouds and stratospheric adjustment. We have also determined their atmospheric lifetimes using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model.
Fang Zhao, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Pierre Friedlingstein, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Eugenia Kalnay, Etsushi Kato, Charles D. Koven, Ben Poulter, Rashid Rafique, Stephen Sitch, Shijie Shu, Beni Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, and Sonke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 13, 5121–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, 2016
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The increasing seasonality of atmospheric CO2 is strongly linked with enhanced land vegetation activities in the last 5 decades, for which the importance of increasing CO2, climate and land use/cover change was evaluated in single model studies (Zeng et al., 2014; Forkel et al., 2016). Here we examine the relative importance of these factors in multiple models. Our results highlight models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying regional dynamics.
Adrienne J. Sutton, Christopher L. Sabine, Richard A. Feely, Wei-Jun Cai, Meghan F. Cronin, Michael J. McPhaden, Julio M. Morell, Jan A. Newton, Jae-Hoon Noh, Sólveig R. Ólafsdóttir, Joseph E. Salisbury, Uwe Send, Douglas C. Vandemark, and Robert A. Weller
Biogeosciences, 13, 5065–5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5065-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5065-2016, 2016
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Ocean carbonate observations from surface buoys reveal that marine life is currently exposed to conditions outside preindustrial bounds at 12 study locations around the world. Seasonal conditions in the California Current Ecosystem and Gulf of Maine also exceed thresholds that may impact shellfish larvae. High-resolution observations place long-term change in the context of large natural variability: a necessary step to understand ocean acidification impacts under real-world conditions.
Xiyan Xu, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, Dave P. Billesbach, Rachel Y.-W. Chang, Róisín Commane, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Sean Hartery, Yoshinobu Harazono, Hiroki Iwata, Kyle C. McDonald, Charles E. Miller, Walter C. Oechel, Benjamin Poulter, Naama Raz-Yaseef, Colm Sweeney, Margaret Torn, Steven C. Wofsy, Zhen Zhang, and Donatella Zona
Biogeosciences, 13, 5043–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, 2016
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Wetlands are the largest global natural methane source. Peat-rich bogs and fens lying between 50°N and 70°N contribute 10–30% to this source. The predictive capability of the seasonal methane cycle can directly affect the estimation of global methane budget. We present multiscale methane seasonal emission by observations and modeling and find that the uncertainties in predicting the seasonal methane emissions are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH4 production and CH4 transport processes.
Vanessa Haverd, Matthias Cuntz, Lars P. Nieradzik, and Ian N. Harman
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3111–3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3111-2016, 2016
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CABLE is a global land surface model, which has been used extensively in offline and coupled simulations. We improve CABLE’s simulation of evaporation using a new scheme for drought response and a physically accurate representation of coupled energy and water fluxes in the soil. Marked improvements in predictions of evaporation are demonstrated globally. Results highlight the important roles of deep soil moisture in mediating drought response and litter in dampening soil evaporation.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
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The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
J. M. Barlow, P. I. Palmer, and L. M. Bruhwiler
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-752, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-752, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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We report significant changes in the amplitude of the atmospheric CH4 seasonal cycle at sites over the Arctic. All corresponding evidence points to a persistent increase in wetlands. We show using a global 3-d chemistry transport model that reductions in North American and European fossil fuel emissions could explain a large portion of the amplitude decrease, but we still require significant, persistent emissions from wetlands to reconcile observed trends in the seasonal cycle.
Gregor J. Schürmann, Thomas Kaminski, Christoph Köstler, Nuno Carvalhais, Michael Voßbeck, Jens Kattge, Ralf Giering, Christian Rödenbeck, Martin Heimann, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2999–3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2999-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2999-2016, 2016
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We describe the Max Planck Institute Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (MPI-CCDAS). The system improves the modelled carbon cycle of the terrestrial biosphere by systematically confronting (or assimilating) the model with observations of atmospheric CO2 and fractions of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation. Jointly assimilating both data streams outperforms the single-data stream experiments, thus showing the value of a multi-data stream assimilation.
Yiying Chen, James Ryder, Vladislav Bastrikov, Matthew J. McGrath, Kim Naudts, Juliane Otto, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Peylin, Jan Polcher, Aude Valade, Andrew Black, Jan A. Elbers, Eddy Moors, Thomas Foken, Eva van Gorsel, Vanessa Haverd, Bernard Heinesch, Frank Tiedemann, Alexander Knohl, Samuli Launiainen, Denis Loustau, Jérôme Ogée, Timo Vessala, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2951–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2951-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2951-2016, 2016
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In this study, we compiled a set of within-canopy and above-canopy measurements of energy and water fluxes, and used these data to parametrize and validate the new multi-layer energy budget scheme for a range of forest types. An adequate parametrization approach has been presented for the global-scale land surface model (ORCHIDEE-CAN). Furthermore, model performance of the new multi-layer parametrization was compared against the existing single-layer scheme.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
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Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
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How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, Leif Backman, Janne Hakkarainen, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Maarten C. Krol, Renato Spahni, Sander Houweling, Marko Laine, Marcel van der Schoot, Ray Langenfelds, Raymond Ellul, and Wouter Peters
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-181, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-181, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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In this study, we found that methane emission estimates, driven by the CTE-CH4 model, depend on model setups and inputs, especially for regional estimates. An optimal setup makes the estimates stable, but inputs, such as emission estimates from inventories, and observations, also play significant role. The results can be used for an extended analysis on relative contributions of methane emissions to atmospheric methane concentration changes in recent decades.
Anna Agustí-Panareda, Sébastien Massart, Frédéric Chevallier, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Emanuel Dutra, and Anton Beljaars
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10399–10418, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10399-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10399-2016, 2016
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This paper presents a method to adjust the sinks and sources of CO2 associated with land ecosystems within a global atmospheric CO2 forecasting system in order to reduce the errors in the forecast. This is done by combining information on (1) retrospective fluxes estimated by a global flux inversion system, (2) land-use information, and (3) simulated fluxes from the model. Because the method is simple and flexible, it can easily run in real time as part of a forecasting system.
Stéphane Mangeon, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Richard Gilham, Anna Harper, Stephen Sitch, and Gerd Folberth
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2685–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2685-2016, 2016
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To understand the role of fires in the Earth system, global fire models are required. In this paper we describe the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO). It follows a reduced complexity approach using mainly temperature, humidity and precipitation. INFERNO was found to perform well on a global scale and to maintain regional patterns over the 1997–2011 period of study, despite regional biases particularly linked to fuel consumption.
Are Olsen, Robert M. Key, Steven van Heuven, Siv K. Lauvset, Anton Velo, Xiaohua Lin, Carsten Schirnick, Alex Kozyr, Toste Tanhua, Mario Hoppema, Sara Jutterström, Reiner Steinfeldt, Emil Jeansson, Masao Ishii, Fiz F. Pérez, and Toru Suzuki
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 297–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-297-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-297-2016, 2016
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The GLODAPv2 data product collects data from more than 700 hydrographic cruises into a global and internally calibrated product. It provides access to the data from almost all ocean carbon cruises carried out since the 1970s and is a unique resource for marine science, in particular regarding the ocean carbon cycle. GLODAPv2 will form the foundation for future routine synthesis of hydrographic data of the same sort.
Siv K. Lauvset, Robert M. Key, Are Olsen, Steven van Heuven, Anton Velo, Xiaohua Lin, Carsten Schirnick, Alex Kozyr, Toste Tanhua, Mario Hoppema, Sara Jutterström, Reiner Steinfeldt, Emil Jeansson, Masao Ishii, Fiz F. Perez, Toru Suzuki, and Sylvain Watelet
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 325–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-325-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-325-2016, 2016
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This paper describes the mapped climatologies that are part of the Global Ocean Data Analysis Project Version 2 (GLODAPv2). GLODAPv2 is a uniformly calibrated open ocean data product on inorganic carbon and carbon-relevant variables. Global mapped climatologies of the total dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, pH, saturation state of calcite and aragonite, anthropogenic carbon, preindustrial carbon content, inorganic macronutrients, oxygen, salinity, and temperature have been created.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
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The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Zuo Xue, Ruoying He, Katja Fennel, Wei-Jun Cai, Steven Lohrenz, Wei-Jen Huang, Hanqin Tian, Wei Ren, and Zhengchen Zang
Biogeosciences, 13, 4359–4377, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4359-2016, 2016
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In this study we used a state-of-the-science coupled physical–biogeochemical model to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of sea surface CO2 concentration in the Gulf of Mexico. Our model revealed the Gulf was a net CO2 sink with a flux of 1.11 ± 0.84 × 1012 mol C yr−1. We also found that biological uptake was the primary driver making the Gulf an overall CO2 sink and that the carbon flux in the northern Gulf was very susceptible to changes in river inputs.
Jörg Schwinger, Nadine Goris, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Iris Kriest, Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, Mehmet Ilicak, Karen M. Assmann, and Christoph Heinze
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2589–2622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2589-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2589-2016, 2016
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We present an evaluation of the ocean carbon cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model. A re-tuning of the ecosystem parameterisation improves surface tracer fields between versions 1 and 1.2 of the model. Focus is placed on the evaluation of newly implemented parameterisations of the biological carbon pump (i.e. the sinking of particular organic carbon). We find that the model previously underestimated the carbon transport into the deep ocean below 2000 m depth.
Makoto Inoue, Isamu Morino, Osamu Uchino, Takahiro Nakatsuru, Yukio Yoshida, Tatsuya Yokota, Debra Wunch, Paul O. Wennberg, Coleen M. Roehl, David W. T. Griffith, Voltaire A. Velazco, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Thorsten Warneke, Justus Notholt, John Robinson, Vanessa Sherlock, Frank Hase, Thomas Blumenstock, Markus Rettinger, Ralf Sussmann, Esko Kyrö, Rigel Kivi, Kei Shiomi, Shuji Kawakami, Martine De Mazière, Sabrina G. Arnold, Dietrich G. Feist, Erica A. Barrow, James Barney, Manvendra Dubey, Matthias Schneider, Laura T. Iraci, James R. Podolske, Patrick W. Hillyard, Toshinobu Machida, Yousuke Sawa, Kazuhiro Tsuboi, Hidekazu Matsueda, Colm Sweeney, Pieter P. Tans, Arlyn E. Andrews, Sebastien C. Biraud, Yukio Fukuyama, Jasna V. Pittman, Eric A. Kort, and Tomoaki Tanaka
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 3491–3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3491-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3491-2016, 2016
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In this study, we correct the biases of GOSAT XCO2 and XCH4 using TCCON data. To evaluate the effectiveness of our correction method, uncorrected/corrected GOSAT data are compared to independent XCO2 and XCH4 data derived from aircraft measurements. Consequently, we suggest that this method is effective for reducing the biases of the GOSAT data. We consider that our work provides GOSAT data users with valuable information and contributes to the further development of studies on greenhouse gases.
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Mariana C. Rufino, Martin Herold, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Todd S. Rosenstock, Mario Herrero, Stephen Ogle, Changsheng Li, Benjamin Poulter, Louis Verchot, Christopher Martius, John Stuiver, and Sytze de Bruin
Biogeosciences, 13, 4253–4269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4253-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4253-2016, 2016
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This research provides spatial data on gross emissions from the land use sector for the tropical region for the period 2000–2005. This sector contributes up to 24 % of the global emissions, but there is little understanding of where the hotspots of emissions are, how uncertain they are, and what the human activities behind these emissions are. Data provided here should assist countries to identify priority areas for mitigation action and contrast the effectiveness of their current measures.
R. Hossaini, P. K. Patra, A. A. Leeson, G. Krysztofiak, N. L. Abraham, S. J. Andrews, A. T. Archibald, J. Aschmann, E. L. Atlas, D. A. Belikov, H. Bönisch, L. J. Carpenter, S. Dhomse, M. Dorf, A. Engel, W. Feng, S. Fuhlbrügge, P. T. Griffiths, N. R. P. Harris, R. Hommel, T. Keber, K. Krüger, S. T. Lennartz, S. Maksyutov, H. Mantle, G. P. Mills, B. Miller, S. A. Montzka, F. Moore, M. A. Navarro, D. E. Oram, K. Pfeilsticker, J. A. Pyle, B. Quack, A. D. Robinson, E. Saikawa, A. Saiz-Lopez, S. Sala, B.-M. Sinnhuber, S. Taguchi, S. Tegtmeier, R. T. Lidster, C. Wilson, and F. Ziska
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9163–9187, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9163-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9163-2016, 2016
Abdirahman M. Omar, Ingunn Skjelvan, Svein Rune Erga, and Are Olsen
Ocean Sci., 12, 937–951, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-937-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-937-2016, 2016
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We have determined, for the first time, the seasonal changes and controlling processes of ocean acidification parameters across western Norwegian fjords, based on data obtained mainly with sensors on board a commercial ship, MS Trans Carrier, in 2005–2009. The study fills an important gap in our knowledge on ocean acidification in western Norwegian fjords, which are important ecosystems: important recreation areas, marine pathways, spawning grounds for different fish species, etc.
Lisa R. Welp, Prabir K. Patra, Christian Rödenbeck, Rama Nemani, Jian Bi, Stephen C. Piper, and Ralph F. Keeling
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9047–9066, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9047-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9047-2016, 2016
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Boreal and arctic ecosystems have been responding to elevated temperatures and atmospheric CO2 over the last decades. It is not clear if these ecosystems are sequestering more carbon or possibly becoming sources. This is an important feedback of the carbon cycle to global warming. We studied monthly biological land CO2 fluxes inferred from atmospheric CO2 concentrations using inverse models and found that net summer CO2 uptake increased, resulting in a small increase in annual CO2 uptake.
Cindy Cressot, Isabelle Pison, Peter J. Rayner, Philippe Bousquet, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9089–9108, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9089-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9089-2016, 2016
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Several hypothesis have been made to attribute current trends in atmospheric methane to particular regions. In this context, this work aims at evaluating how well anomalies in methane emissions can be detected at the regional scale with currently available observing systems: two space-borne instruments and a surface network. Our results show that inter-annual analyses of methane emissions inferred by atmospheric inversions should always include an uncertainty assessment.
Anna B. Harper, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris D. Jones, Stephen Sitch, Lina M. Mercado, Margriet Groenendijk, Eddy Robertson, Jens Kattge, Gerhard Bönisch, Owen K. Atkin, Michael Bahn, Johannes Cornelissen, Ülo Niinemets, Vladimir Onipchenko, Josep Peñuelas, Lourens Poorter, Peter B. Reich, Nadjeda A. Soudzilovskaia, and Peter van Bodegom
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2415–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, 2016
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Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to predict the response of vegetation to climate change. We improved the representation of carbon uptake by ecosystems in a DGVM by including a wider range of trade-offs between nutrient allocation to photosynthetic capacity and leaf structure, based on observed plant traits from a worldwide data base. The improved model has higher rates of photosynthesis and net C uptake by plants, and more closely matches observations at site and global scales.
Timothée Bourgeois, James C. Orr, Laure Resplandy, Jens Terhaar, Christian Ethé, Marion Gehlen, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 13, 4167–4185, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4167-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4167-2016, 2016
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The global coastal ocean took up 0.1 Pg C yr−1 of anthropogenic carbon during 1993–2012 based on new biogeochemical simulations with an eddying 3-D global model. That is about half of the most recent estimate, an extrapolation based on surface areas. It should not be confused with the continental shelf pump, perhaps 10 times larger, which includes natural as well as anthropogenic carbon. Coastal uptake of anthropogenic carbon is limited by its offshore transport.
Corinne Le Quéré, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Róisín Moriarty, Séverine Alvain, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Sophie Chollet, Clare Enright, Daniel J. Franklin, Richard J. Geider, Sandy P. Harrison, Andrew G. Hirst, Stuart Larsen, Louis Legendre, Trevor Platt, I. Colin Prentice, Richard B. Rivkin, Sévrine Sailley, Shubha Sathyendranath, Nick Stephens, Meike Vogt, and Sergio M. Vallina
Biogeosciences, 13, 4111–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, 2016
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We present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types, and use the model to assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton growth.
Charlotte Laufkötter, Meike Vogt, Nicolas Gruber, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Judith Hauck, Jasmin G. John, Ivan D. Lima, Roland Seferian, and Christoph Völker
Biogeosciences, 13, 4023–4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, 2016
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We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. While all models project decreases in export, they differ strongly regarding the drivers. The formation of sinking particles of organic matter is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. Changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for export in some models but of low significance in others.
Vivek K. Arora and John F. Scinocca
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2357–2376, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2357-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2357-2016, 2016
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This paper uses observed features of the global carbon cycle to constrain how much carbon the land should take up in an Earth system model in response to increasing fossil fuel CO2 emissions since the start of the industrial era. These models are the only tool available to us for projecting future climate change. Despite their uncertainties, if current observations can be used to constrain models then more confidence can be places in models' future climate change projections.
Peter Rayner, Anna M. Michalak, and Frédéric Chevallier
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-148, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-148, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Numerical models are among our most important tools for understanding and prediction. Models include quantities or equations that we cannot verify directly. We learn about these unknowns by comparing model output with observations and using some algorithm to improve the inputs. We show here that the many methods for doing this are special cases of underlying statistics. This provides a unified way of comparing and contrasting such methods.
Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Mario Herrero, Petr Havlik, Matteo Campioli, Xianzhou Zhang, Yongfei Bai, Nicolas Viovy, Joanna Joiner, Xuhui Wang, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Shilong Piao, Tao Wang, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Jean-Francois Soussana, Anna Peregon, Natalya Kosykh, and Nina Mironycheva-Tokareva
Biogeosciences, 13, 3757–3776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, 2016
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We derived the global maps of grassland management intensity of 1901–2012, including the minimum area of managed grassland with fraction of mown/grazed part. These maps, to our knowledge for the first time, provide global, time-dependent information for drawing up global estimates of management impact on biomass production and yields and for global vegetation models to enable simulations of carbon stocks and GHG budgets beyond simple tuning of grassland productivities to account for management.
Niels Andela, Guido R. van der Werf, Johannes W. Kaiser, Thijs T. van Leeuwen, Martin J. Wooster, and Caroline E. R. Lehmann
Biogeosciences, 13, 3717–3734, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3717-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3717-2016, 2016
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Landscape fires occur on a large scale in savannas and grasslands, affecting ecosystems and air quality. We combined two satellite-derived datasets to derive fuel consumption per unit of area burned for savannas and grasslands in the (sub)tropics. Fire return periods, vegetation productivity, vegetation type and human land management were all important drivers of its spatial distribution. The results can be used to improve fire emission modelling and management or to detect ecosystem degradation.
Xiaofeng Xu, Fengming Yuan, Paul J. Hanson, Stan D. Wullschleger, Peter E. Thornton, William J. Riley, Xia Song, David E. Graham, Changchun Song, and Hanqin Tian
Biogeosciences, 13, 3735–3755, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3735-2016, 2016
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Accurately projecting future climate change requires a good methane modeling. However, how good the current models are and what are the key improvements needed remain unclear. This paper reviews the 40 published methane models to characterize the strengths and weakness of current methane models and further lay out the roadmap for future model improvements.
Christian Frankenberg, Susan S. Kulawik, Steven C. Wofsy, Frédéric Chevallier, Bruce Daube, Eric A. Kort, Christopher O'Dell, Edward T. Olsen, and Gregory Osterman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7867–7878, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7867-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7867-2016, 2016
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We use observations from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) flights from January 2009 through September 2011 to validate CO2 measurements from satellites (GOSAT, TES, AIRS) and atmospheric inversion models (CarbonTracker CT2013B, MACC v13r1).
Lin Wu, Grégoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Valentin Bellassen, Felix Vogel, Frédéric Chevallier, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Yilong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7743–7771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7743-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7743-2016, 2016
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This paper advances atmospheric inversion of city CO2 emissions as follows: (1) illustrate how inversion methodology can be tailored to deal with very large urban networks of sensors measuring CO2 concentrations; (2) demonstrate that atmospheric inversion could be a relevant tool of Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of city CO2 emissions; (3) clarify the theoretical potential of inversion for reducing uncertainties in the estimates of citywide total and sectoral CO2 emissions.
Maribel I. García-Ibáñez, Patricia Zunino, Friederike Fröb, Lidia I. Carracedo, Aida F. Ríos, Herlé Mercier, Are Olsen, and Fiz F. Pérez
Biogeosciences, 13, 3701–3715, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3701-2016, 2016
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We assessed the progressive acidification (pH decrease) of the North Atlantic waters from direct observations between 1991 and 2015. The greatest pH decreases were observed in surface and intermediate waters. We conclude that the observed pH decreases are a consequence of the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2. In addition we find that they have been partially offset by alkalinity increases.
Khatab Abdalla, Pauline Chivenge, Philippe Ciais, and Vincent Chaplot
Biogeosciences, 13, 3619–3633, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3619-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3619-2016, 2016
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Discrepancies exist on the impact of tillage on soil CO2 emissions and on the main soil and environmental controls. Results from a meta-analysis using 174 paired observations comparing CO2 emissions over entire seasons or years from tilled (untilled) soils across different climates, crop types and soil conditions show that on average: (1) tilled soils emit 21 % more CO2 than untilled soils; (2) the difference increase to 29 % in sandy soils from arid climates with low soil organic carbon content.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Alex Boon, Grégoire Broquet, Deborah J. Clifford, Frédéric Chevallier, David M. Butterfield, Isabelle Pison, Michel Ramonet, Jean-Daniel Paris, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6735–6756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6735-2016, 2016
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We measured carbon dioxide and methane concentrations at four near-ground sites located in London, 2012. We investigated the potential for using these measurements, alongside numerical modelling, to help us to understand urban greenhouse gas emissions. Low-level sites were highly sensitive to local emissions, which questions our ability to use measurements from near-ground sites in cities in some modelling applications. A gradient approach was found to be beneficial to reduce model–data errors.
Rhys Whitley, Jason Beringer, Lindsay B. Hutley, Gab Abramowitz, Martin G. De Kauwe, Remko Duursma, Bradley Evans, Vanessa Haverd, Longhui Li, Youngryel Ryu, Benjamin Smith, Ying-Ping Wang, Mathew Williams, and Qiang Yu
Biogeosciences, 13, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3245-2016, 2016
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In this study we assess how well terrestrial biosphere models perform at predicting water and carbon cycling for savanna ecosystems. We apply our models to five savanna sites in Northern Australia and highlight key causes for model failure. Our assessment of model performance uses a novel benchmarking system that scores a model’s predictive ability based on how well it is utilizing its driving information. On average, we found the models as a group display only moderate levels of performance.
Victoria Naipal, Christian Reick, Kristof Van Oost, Thomas Hoffmann, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 407–423, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-407-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-407-2016, 2016
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We present a new large-scale coarse-resolution sediment budget model that is compatible with Earth system models and simulates sediment dynamics in floodplains and on hillslopes. We applied this model on the Rhine catchment for the last millennium, and found that the model reproduces the spatial distribution of sediment storage and the scaling relationships as found in observations. We also identified that land use change explains most of the temporal variability in sediment storage.
Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, Laurent Bopp, Laure Resplandy, James C. Orr, Olivier Marti, John P. Dunne, James R. Christian, Scott C. Doney, Tatiana Ilyina, Keith Lindsay, Paul R. Halloran, Christoph Heinze, Joachim Segschneider, Jerry Tjiputra, Olivier Aumont, and Anastasia Romanou
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1827–1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, 2016
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This paper explores how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for ocean biogeochemistry in CMIP5 models contributed to inter-model differences in modeled fields. We show that a link between spin-up duration and skill-score metrics emerges from both individual IPSL-CM5A-LR's results and an ensemble of CMIP5 models. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols constitute a source of inter-model uncertainty which would require more attention in future intercomparison exercises.
Mingxi Yang, Thomas G. Bell, Frances E. Hopkins, Vassilis Kitidis, Pierre W. Cazenave, Philip D. Nightingale, Margaret J. Yelland, Robin W. Pascal, John Prytherch, Ian M. Brooks, and Timothy J. Smyth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5745–5761, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5745-2016, 2016
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Coastal seas are sources of methane in the atmosphere and can fluctuate from emitting to absorbing carbon dioxide. Direct air–sea transport measurements of these two greenhouse gases in near shore regions remain scarce. From a recently established coastal atmospheric station on the south-west coast of the UK, we observed that the oceanic absorption of carbon dioxide peaked during the phytoplankton bloom, while methane emission varied with the tidal cycle, likely due to an estuary influence.
Veronika Eyring, Mattia Righi, Axel Lauer, Martin Evaldsson, Sabrina Wenzel, Colin Jones, Alessandro Anav, Oliver Andrews, Irene Cionni, Edouard L. Davin, Clara Deser, Carsten Ehbrecht, Pierre Friedlingstein, Peter Gleckler, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Juckes, Stephan Kindermann, John Krasting, Dominik Kunert, Richard Levine, Alexander Loew, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Erik Mason, Adam S. Phillips, Simon Read, Catherine Rio, Romain Roehrig, Daniel Senftleben, Andreas Sterl, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Jeremy Walton, Shiyu Wang, and Keith D. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016
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A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) in CMIP has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations.
Almut Arneth, Risto Makkonen, Stefan Olin, Pauli Paasonen, Thomas Holst, Maija K. Kajos, Markku Kulmala, Trofim Maximov, Paul A. Miller, and Guy Schurgers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5243–5262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5243-2016, 2016
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We study the potentially contrasting effects of enhanced ecosystem CO2 release in response to warmer temperatures vs. emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds and their formation of secondary organic aerosol through a combination of measurements and modelling at a remote location in Eastern Siberia. The study aims to highlight the number of potentially opposing processes and complex interactions between vegetation physiology, soil processes and trace-gas exchanges in the climate system.
Sudhanshu Pandey, Sander Houweling, Maarten Krol, Ilse Aben, Frédéric Chevallier, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Luciana V. Gatti, Emanuel Gloor, John B. Miller, Rob Detmers, Toshinobu Machida, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5043–5062, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5043-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the constraint provided by measurements of Xratio (XCH4/XCO2) from space on surface fluxes of CH4 and CO2. We apply the ratio inversion method described in Pandey et al. (2015) to Xratio retrievals from the GOSAT with the TM5-4DVAR inverse modeling system, to constrain the surface fluxes of CH4 and CO2 for 2009 and 2010. The results are compared to proxy CH4 inversions using model-derived-XCO2 mixing ratios from CarbonTracker and MACC.
Elodie Gutknecht, Guillaume Reffray, Marion Gehlen, Iis Triyulianti, Dessy Berlianty, and Philippe Gaspar
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1523–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1523-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1523-2016, 2016
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An operational ocean forecasting system was developed to monitor the state of the Indonesian seas in terms of circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries (INDESO project). Here we describe the skill assessment of the physical-biogeochemical coupled model configuration. Model results reproduce the main characteristics of biogeochemical tracer distributions in space and time: phasing of chlorophyll bloom, nutrient and oxygen distributions, water mass transformation across the archipelago.
Roland Séférian, Christine Delire, Bertrand Decharme, Aurore Voldoire, David Salas y Melia, Matthieu Chevallier, David Saint-Martin, Olivier Aumont, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Dominique Carrer, Hervé Douville, Laurent Franchistéguy, Emilie Joetzjer, and Séphane Sénési
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1423–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, 2016
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This paper presents the first IPCC-class Earth system model developed at Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-ESM1). We detail how the various carbon reservoirs were initialized and analyze the behavior of the carbon cycle and its prominent physical drivers, comparing model results to the most up-to-date climate and carbon cycle dataset over the latest decades.
Antoine Berchet, Philippe Bousquet, Isabelle Pison, Robin Locatelli, Frédéric Chevallier, Jean-Daniel Paris, Ed J. Dlugokencky, Tuomas Laurila, Juha Hatakka, Yrjo Viisanen, Doug E. J. Worthy, Euan Nisbet, Rebecca Fisher, James France, David Lowry, Viktor Ivakhov, and Ove Hermansen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4147–4157, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4147-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4147-2016, 2016
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We propose insights based on atmospheric observations around the Arctic circle to evaluate estimates of methane emissions to the atmosphere from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Based on a comprehensive statistical analysis of the observations and of high-resolution transport simulations, annual methane emissions from ESAS are estimated to range from 0.0 to 4.5 TgCH4 yr−1, with a maximum in summer and very low emissions in winter.
Andrew Lenton, Bronte Tilbrook, Richard J. Matear, Tristan P. Sasse, and Yukihiro Nojiri
Biogeosciences, 13, 1753–1765, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1753-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1753-2016, 2016
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We reconstruct the observed variability and mean state in pH and aragonite saturation state around Australia at high spatial resolution and reconstruct the changes that have occurred in the Australian region over the last 140 years. We find that large changes in aragonite saturation state and pH have very different spatial patterns, which suggests that the biological responses to ocean acidification are likely to be non-uniform and dependent on the relative sensitivity of organisms to change.
Marcella Busilacchio, Piero Di Carlo, Eleonora Aruffo, Fabio Biancofiore, Cesare Dari Salisburgo, Franco Giammaria, Stephane Bauguitte, James Lee, Sarah Moller, James Hopkins, Shalini Punjabi, Stephen Andrews, Alistair C. Lewis, Mark Parrington, Paul I. Palmer, Edward Hyer, and Glenn M. Wolfe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3485–3497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3485-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3485-2016, 2016
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Boreal fire emissions have little effect on ozone concentrations but evident impact on some NOx reservoirs as peroxy nitrates that we quantified. This should be taken into account since NOx reservoirs can be efficiently transported and may influence the ozone budget far away from the fire emission.
The study is based on observations carried out on board the BAe 146 aircraft during BORTAS in Canada. We used a custom laser-induced fluorescence system to measure NO2 and NOx reservoirs.
Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, and Matthew J. Smith
Biogeosciences, 13, 1491–1518, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1491-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1491-2016, 2016
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We investigated how today's state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models represent biological nitrogen fixation and what the consequences of varying representation are for model predictions under ambient conditions and under scenarios of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We found that varying global nitrogen fixation rates are simulated under ambient conditions and that the responses of the simulated carbon and nitrogen cycles are significantly affected under perturbation.
Natalie Mahowald, Fiona Lo, Yun Zheng, Laura Harrison, Chris Funk, Danica Lombardozzi, and Christine Goodale
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-211-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-211-2016, 2016
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This paper evaluates the model predictions of leaf area index in the current climate, compared against satellite observations. It also summarizes the predicted changes in leaf area index in the future, and identifies whether some of the uncertainty in future predictions can be decreased.
Zhen Zhang, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Jed O. Kaplan, and Benjamin Poulter
Biogeosciences, 13, 1387–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, 2016
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This study investigates improvements and uncertainties associated with estimating global inundated area and wetland CH4 emissions using TOPMODEL. Different topographic information and catchment aggregation schemes are evaluated against seasonal and permanently inundated wetland observations. Reducing uncertainty in prognostic wetland dynamics modeling must take into account forcing data as well as topographic scaling schemes.
X. Wu, N. Vuichard, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, X. Wang, V. Magliulo, M. Wattenbach, L. Vitale, P. Di Tommasi, E. J. Moors, W. Jans, J. Elbers, E. Ceschia, T. Tallec, C. Bernhofer, T. Grünwald, C. Moureaux, T. Manise, A. Ligne, P. Cellier, B. Loubet, E. Larmanou, and D. Ripoche
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 857–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-857-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-857-2016, 2016
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The response of crops to changing climate and atmospheric CO2 could have large effects on food production, terrestrial carbon, water, energy fluxes and the climate feedbacks. We developed a new process-oriented terrestrial biogeochemical model named ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0), which integrates a generic crop phenology and harvest module into the land surface model ORCHIDEE. Our model has good ability to capture the spatial gradients of crop phenology, carbon and energy-related variables across Europe.
Bertrand Guenet, Fernando Esteban Moyano, Philippe Peylin, Philippe Ciais, and Ivan A Janssens
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 841–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-841-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-841-2016, 2016
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We present a simple conceptual model of soil carbon decomposition (PRIM) able to reproduce priming experiments. Parameters were optimized using a Bayesian framework and evaluated against another set of soil incubation. PRIM better fit data than the original, CENTURY-type soil decomposition model. We then compared both models incorporated into the global land biosphere model ORCHIDEE. Both versions reproduced observed decay litter rates, but only ORCHIDEE-PRIM could simulate the observed priming.
Yuli Shan, Dabo Guan, Jianghua Liu, Zhu Liu, Jingru Liu, Heike Schroeder, Yang Chen, Shuai Shao, Zhifu Mi, and Qiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-176, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Cities contribute 85 % of the total CO2 emissions in China and thus are considered the key areas for implementing policies designed for climate change adaption and CO2 emission mitigation. This study presents a method for constructing a CO2 emissions inventory for Chinese cities in terms of the definition provided by the IPCC territorial emission accounting approach. We apply this method to compile CO2 emissions inventories for 20 Chinese cities and analyse their emission characteristic.
Susan Kulawik, Debra Wunch, Christopher O'Dell, Christian Frankenberg, Maximilian Reuter, Tomohiro Oda, Frederic Chevallier, Vanessa Sherlock, Michael Buchwitz, Greg Osterman, Charles E. Miller, Paul O. Wennberg, David Griffith, Isamu Morino, Manvendra K. Dubey, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Justus Notholt, Frank Hase, Thorsten Warneke, Ralf Sussmann, John Robinson, Kimberly Strong, Matthias Schneider, Martine De Mazière, Kei Shiomi, Dietrich G. Feist, Laura T. Iraci, and Joyce Wolf
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 683–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-683-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-683-2016, 2016
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To accurately estimate source and sink locations of carbon dioxide, systematic errors in satellite measurements and models must be characterized. This paper examines two satellite data sets (GOSAT, launched 2009, and SCIAMACHY, launched 2002), and two models (CarbonTracker and MACC) vs. the TCCON CO2 validation data set. We assess biases and errors by season and latitude, satellite performance under averaging, and diurnal variability. Our findings are useful for assimilation of satellite data.
Tim Stöven, Toste Tanhua, Mario Hoppema, and Wilken-Jon von Appen
Ocean Sci., 12, 319–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-319-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-319-2016, 2016
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The article describes transient tracer distributions of CFC-12 and SF6 in the Fram Strait in 2012. The SF6 excess and the anthropogenic carbon content in this area was estimated assuming a standard parameterization of the inverse-Gaussian–transit-time distribution. Hydrographic data were obtained along a mooring array at 78°50’N and a mean velocity field was used for flux estimates.
Kristen M. Krumhardt, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Natalie M. Freeman, and Nicholas R. Bates
Biogeosciences, 13, 1163–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1163-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1163-2016, 2016
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In this study, we combine phytoplankton pigment data with particulate inorganic carbon and chlorophyll measurements from the satellite record to assess recent trends in phytoplankton dynamics in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, with a focus on coccolithophores. We show that coccolithophores in the North Atlantic have been increasing in abundance. Correlations suggest that they are responding positively to increasing inorganic carbon from anthropogenic inputs in the upper mixed layer.
Sébastien Massart, Anna Agustí-Panareda, Jens Heymann, Michael Buchwitz, Frédéric Chevallier, Maximilian Reuter, Michael Hilker, John P. Burrows, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Dietrich G. Feist, Frank Hase, Ralf Sussmann, Filip Desmet, Manvendra K. Dubey, David W. T. Griffith, Rigel Kivi, Christof Petri, Matthias Schneider, and Voltaire A. Velazco
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1653–1671, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1653-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1653-2016, 2016
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This study presents the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) monitoring of atmospheric CO2 using measurements from the Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT). We show that the modelled CO2 has a better precision than standard CO2 satellite products compared to ground-based measurements. We also present the CO2 forecast based on our best knowledge of the atmospheric CO2 distribution. We show that it has skill to forecast the largest scale CO2 patterns up to day 5.
V. Haverd, B. Smith, M. Raupach, P. Briggs, L. Nieradzik, J. Beringer, L. Hutley, C. M. Trudinger, and J. Cleverly
Biogeosciences, 13, 761–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-761-2016, 2016
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We present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation in savannas, and test it using data from the OzFlux network. Model behaviour emerges from complex feedbacks between the plant physiology and vegetation dynamics, in response to resource availability, and not from imposed hypotheses about the controls on tree-grass co-existence. Results indicate that resource limitation is a stronger determinant of tree cover than disturbance in Australian savannas.
L. Feng, P. I. Palmer, R. J. Parker, N. M. Deutscher, D. G. Feist, R. Kivi, I. Morino, and R. Sussmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1289–1302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1289-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1289-2016, 2016
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There is an on-going debate on the larger European biospheric uptake inferred from GOSAT XCO2 retrievals than those inferred from in situ data. Using a set of 15 experiments, we found that the elevated uptake over Europe could largely be explained by mis-fitting data due to regional XCO2 biases: 50–80 % of the elevated European uptake is due to retrievals outside the immediate European; and a varying monthly bias of up to 0.5 ppm for XCO2 retrievals over Europe could explain most of the remainder.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, D. Zhu, T. Wang, S. S. Peng, and S. L. Piao
Biogeosciences, 13, 675–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016, 2016
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The pan-boreal biome (> N45°) removes CO2 from the atmosphere (i.e., it is a carbon sink). Fires can alter this carbon balance because they release CO2 to the atmosphere but also initiate a long-term carbon sink during post-fire vegetation recovery. We found that historical fires of 1850–2009 have a small net sink contribution (~6 %) to the 2000–2009 regional carbon sink, which is a balance between immediate source effect of fires in 2000–2009 and sink effects of those in 1850–1999.
M. K. van der Molen, R. A. M. de Jeu, W. Wagner, I. R. van der Velde, P. Kolari, J. Kurbatova, A. Varlagin, T. C. Maximov, A. V. Kononov, T. Ohta, A. Kotani, M. C. Krol, and W. Peters
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 605–624, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-605-2016, 2016
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Boreal Eurasia contains extensive forests, which play an important role in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Droughts can modify this cycle considerably, although very few ground-based observations are available in the region. We test whether satellite-observed soil moisture may be used to improve carbon cycle models in this region. This paper explains when and where this works best. The interpretation of satellite soil moisture is best in summer conditions, and is hampered by snow, ice and ponding.
M. J. E. van Marle, G. R. van der Werf, R. A. M. de Jeu, and Y. Y. Liu
Biogeosciences, 13, 609–624, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-609-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-609-2016, 2016
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We have quantified large-scale forest loss over a 21-year period (1990–2010) in the tropical biomes of South America using a new satellite-based data set. We found that South American forest exhibited interannual variability without a clear trend during the 1990s, but increased from 2000 to 2004. After 2004, forest loss decreased again, mainly as a result of a decrease in the Brazilian Amazon, whereas at the same time regions south of the arc of deforestation showed an increase in forest loss.
J. R. Melton and V. K. Arora
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-323-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-323-2016, 2016
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We use a modified form of the Lotka–Volterra (L–V) equations to simulate competition between plant functional types (PFTs) on a global scale with the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) version 2.0. Our modified L–V simulations compare well against observation-based records of PFT distributions, while simulations with unmodified L–V equations show significant biases. We include an appendix detailing all aspects of CTEM v. 2.0.
J. Ryder, J. Polcher, P. Peylin, C. Ottlé, Y. Chen, E. van Gorsel, V. Haverd, M. J. McGrath, K. Naudts, J. Otto, A. Valade, and S. Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 223–245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-223-2016, 2016
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
L. Stramma, R. Czeschel, T. Tanhua, P. Brandt, M. Visbeck, and B. S. Giese
Ocean Sci., 12, 153–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-153-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-153-2016, 2016
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The subsurface circulation in the eastern tropical North Atlantic OMZ is derived from velocity, float and tracer data and data assimilation results, and shows a cyclonic flow around the Guinea Dome reaching into the oxygen minimum zone. The stronger cyclonic flow around the Guinea Dome in 2009 seem to be connected to a strong Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) event.
A continuous deoxygenation trend of the low oxygen layer was confirmed.
Eddy influence is weak south of the Cape Verde Islands.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
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We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
J. R. Pitt, M. Le Breton, G. Allen, C. J. Percival, M. W. Gallagher, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, S. J. O'Shea, J. B. A. Muller, M. S. Zahniser, J. Pyle, and P. I. Palmer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-63-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-63-2016, 2016
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We present details of an Aerodyne quantum cascade laser absorption spectrometer (QCLAS) used to make airborne measurements of N2O and CH4, including its configuration for use on board an aircraft. Two different methods to correct for the influence of water vapour on the measurements are evaluated. We diagnose a sensitivity of the instrument to changes in pressure, introduce a new calibration procedure to account for this effect, and assess its performance.
W. Knorr, L. Jiang, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 13, 267–282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, 2016
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Wildfires are the largest contributor to atmospheric pollution from all fires globally, with major consequences for health and air quality. This study examines the main contributing factors governing wildfire emissions during the 20th and 21st centuries using simulations with climate and ecosystem models. Contrary to common perception, climate change is only one of several important factors, but population change, urbanization and changing atmospheric CO2 levels are at least equally important.
S. Walter, A. Kock, T. Steinhoff, B. Fiedler, P. Fietzek, J. Kaiser, M. Krol, M. E. Popa, Q. Chen, T. Tanhua, and T. Röckmann
Biogeosciences, 13, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-323-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-323-2016, 2016
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Oceans are a source of H2, an indirect greenhouse gas. Measurements constraining the temporal and spatial patterns of oceanic H2 emissions are sparse and although H2 is assumed to be produced mainly biologically, direct evidence for biogenic marine production was lacking. By analyzing the H2 isotopic composition (δD) we were able to constrain the global H2 budget in more detail, verify biogenic production and point to additional sources. We also showed that current models are reasonably working.
D. Fowler, C. E. Steadman, D. Stevenson, M. Coyle, R. M. Rees, U. M. Skiba, M. A. Sutton, J. N. Cape, A. J. Dore, M. Vieno, D. Simpson, S. Zaehle, B. D. Stocker, M. Rinaldi, M. C. Facchini, C. R. Flechard, E. Nemitz, M. Twigg, J. W. Erisman, K. Butterbach-Bahl, and J. N. Galloway
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13849–13893, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13849-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13849-2015, 2015
J. M. Barlow, P. I. Palmer, L. M. Bruhwiler, and P. Tans
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13739–13758, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13739-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13739-2015, 2015
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The major results from our analysis include (1) a significant revision to previously reported estimates of phase changes in the seasonal cycle atmospheric CO2, which are more closely related to changes in the terrestrial biosphere; and (2) an indirect observation that is consistent with high northern latitude ecosystems progressively taking up more CO2 during spring and early summer.
C. Rödenbeck, D. C. E. Bakker, N. Gruber, Y. Iida, A. R. Jacobson, S. Jones, P. Landschützer, N. Metzl, S. Nakaoka, A. Olsen, G.-H. Park, P. Peylin, K. B. Rodgers, T. P. Sasse, U. Schuster, J. D. Shutler, V. Valsala, R. Wanninkhof, and J. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 12, 7251–7278, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7251-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7251-2015, 2015
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This study investigates variations in the CO2 uptake of the ocean from year to year. These variations have been calculated from measurements of the surface-ocean carbon content by various different interpolation methods. The equatorial Pacific is estimated to be the region with the strongest year-to-year variations, tied to the El Nino phase. The global ocean CO2 uptake gradually increased from about the year 2000. The comparison of the interpolation methods identifies these findings as robust.
N. MacBean, F. Maignan, P. Peylin, C. Bacour, F.-M. Bréon, and P. Ciais
Biogeosciences, 12, 7185–7208, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7185-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7185-2015, 2015
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Previous model evaluation studies have shown that terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) need a better representation of the leaf phenology, but the model deficiency could be related to incorrect model parameters or inaccurate model structure. This paper presents a framework for optimising the parameters of phenology models that are commonly used in TBMs. It further demonstrates that the optimisation can result in changes to trends in vegetation productivity and an improvement in gross C fluxes.
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015
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We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
C. Mathison, A. J. Wiltshire, P. Falloon, and A. J. Challinor
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4783–4810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4783-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4783-2015, 2015
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South Asia is a highly variable region where there is concern over water and food security. The simulations presented suggest an increasing trend in water resources, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the century although this is masked by the large annual variability of river flows for this region. Future peak river flows still occur during the monsoon period, with a tendency for reduced frequency of lowest flows and increased magnitude of highest flows across the selected locations.
Y. Yin, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, G. Broquet, A. Fortems-Cheiney, I. Pison, and M. Saunois
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13433–13451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13433-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13433-2015, 2015
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We studied the global CO concentration decline over the recent decade with a sophisticated atmospheric inversion system assimilating MOPITT CO retrievals, surface methane and surface methyl chloroform in situ measurements. The inversion interprets the CO concentration decline as a 23% decrease in the CO emissions from 2002 to 2011, twice the negative trend estimated by emission inventories. In contrast to bottom-up inventories, we find negative trends over China and South-east Asia.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
S. Olin, M. Lindeskog, T. A. M. Pugh, G. Schurgers, D. Wårlind, M. Mishurov, S. Zaehle, B. D. Stocker, B. Smith, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015
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Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being. Properly managed they can supply food, store carbon and even sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Conversely, if poorly managed, croplands can be a source of nitrogen to inland and coastal waters, causing algal blooms, and a source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, accentuating climate change. Here we studied cropland management types for their potential to store carbon and minimize nitrogen losses while maintaining crop yields.
H. Lindqvist, C. W. O'Dell, S. Basu, H. Boesch, F. Chevallier, N. Deutscher, L. Feng, B. Fisher, F. Hase, M. Inoue, R. Kivi, I. Morino, P. I. Palmer, R. Parker, M. Schneider, R. Sussmann, and Y. Yoshida
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13023–13040, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13023-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13023-2015, 2015
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Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration varies seasonally mainly due to plant photosynthesis in the Northern Hemisphere. We found that the satellite GOSAT can capture this variability from space to within 1ppm. We also found that models can differ by more than 1ppm. This implies that the satellite measurements could be useful in evaluating models and their prior estimates of carbon dioxide sources and sinks.
N. Kadygrov, G. Broquet, F. Chevallier, L. Rivier, C. Gerbig, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12765–12787, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12765-2015, 2015
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We study the potential of the European Integrated Carbon Observing System (ICOS) atmospheric network for estimating European CO2 ecosystem fluxes. Regional atmospheric inversions with synthetic data are used to derive it in terms of statistical uncertainty. This potential is high in western Europe and future extensions of the network will increase it in eastern Europe. Future improvements of the models underlying the inversion should also significantly decrease uncertainties at high resolution.
R. J. Parker, H. Boesch, K. Byckling, A. J. Webb, P. I. Palmer, L. Feng, P. Bergamaschi, F. Chevallier, J. Notholt, N. Deutscher, T. Warneke, F. Hase, R. Sussmann, S. Kawakami, R. Kivi, D. W. T. Griffith, and V. Velazco
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 4785–4801, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-4785-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-4785-2015, 2015
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Atmospheric CH4 is an important greenhouse gas. Long-term global observations are necessary to understand its behaviour, with satellite observations playing a key role. The "proxy" retrieval method is one of the most successful but relies on the contribution from atmospheric CO2 models. This work assesses the significance of the uncertainty from the model CO2 within the retrieval and determines that despite this uncertainty the data are still valuable for determining sources and sinks of CH4.
J. E. M. S. Nabel
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3563–3577, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3563-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3563-2015, 2015
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Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) often have high computational expenses, which the presented dynamic two-layer classification concept (D2C) aims to reduce. When implementing D2C into a DVM, a new layer for the dynamic grouping of grid-cells with similar climate and species compositions is introduced. The grouping of cells reduces the number of required calculations. With TreeMig-2L, I present how D2C can be implemented in a DVM and demonstrate that D2C can strongly reduce computational expenses.
X. Yue, N. Unger, and Y. Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11931–11948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11931-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11931-2015, 2015
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We estimate decadal trends in land carbon fluxes and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) during 1982-2011, with a focus on the feedback from biosphere (such as tree growth and phenology). Increases of LAI at peak season accounts for ~25% of the trends in GPP and isoprene emissions at the northern lands. However, phenological change alone does not promote regional carbon uptake and BVOC emissions.
T. P. Sasse, B. I. McNeil, R. J. Matear, and A. Lenton
Biogeosciences, 12, 6017–6031, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6017-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6017-2015, 2015
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Our results show that accounting for oceanic CO2 seasonality is crucial to projecting the future onset of critical ocean acidification levels (i.e. aragonite undersaturation). In particular, seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by a global average of 17 years. Importantly, widespread undersaturation is projected to occur once atmospheric CO2 reaches 496ppm in the North Pacific and 511ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emissions scenario.
T. Fanin and G. R. van der Werf
Biogeosciences, 12, 6033–6043, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6033-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6033-2015, 2015
R. Arruda, P. H. R. Calil, A. A. Bianchi, S. C. Doney, N. Gruber, I. Lima, and G. Turi
Biogeosciences, 12, 5793–5809, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5793-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5793-2015, 2015
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We investigate surface ocean pCO2 and air-sea CO2 fluxes climatological variability through biogeochemical modeling in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 spatio-temporal variability was found to be controlled mainly by temperature and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC). Biological production, physical transport and solubility are the main controlling processes. With different behaviors on subtropical and subantarctic open ocean, and on inner/outer continental shelves.
B. Oney, S. Henne, N. Gruber, M. Leuenberger, I. Bamberger, W. Eugster, and D. Brunner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11147–11164, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11147-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11147-2015, 2015
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We present a detailed analysis of a new greenhouse gas measurement network
in the Swiss Plateau, situated between the Jura mountains and the Alps. We
find the network's measurements to be information rich and suitable
for studying surface carbon fluxes of the study region. However, we are
limited by the high-resolution (2km) atmospheric transport model's ability
to simulate meteorology at the individual measurement stations, especially
at those situated in rough terrain.
F. Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11133–11145, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11133-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11133-2015, 2015
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We demonstrate that the current two-step approach to infer the CO2 surface fluxes from satellite measured radiances, with CO2 retrievals as an intermediate product, is not optimal. This suboptimality corrupts the 4D information flow from the radiance measurements to the surface flux estimates. It is amplified by current retrieval strategies where prior errors are much larger than the performance of prior CO2 simulations used in atmospheric inversions.
T. Stöven, T. Tanhua, M. Hoppema, and J. L. Bullister
Ocean Sci., 11, 699–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-699-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-699-2015, 2015
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We use a suite of transient tracer measurements from a Southern Ocean sector southeast of Africa collected from 1998 and 2012 to quantify ventilation and change in ventilation. We found that the ventilation can be constrained by an inverse Gaussian transit time distribution north of the Subantarctic Front. We do not find any significant changes in upper ocean ventilation during this time period.
A. Berchet, I. Pison, F. Chevallier, J.-D. Paris, P. Bousquet, J.-L. Bonne, M. Y. Arshinov, B. D. Belan, C. Cressot, D. K. Davydov, E. J. Dlugokencky, A. V. Fofonov, A. Galanin, J. Lavrič, T. Machida, R. Parker, M. Sasakawa, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, and J. Winderlich
Biogeosciences, 12, 5393–5414, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5393-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5393-2015, 2015
V. Naipal, C. Reick, J. Pongratz, and K. Van Oost
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2893–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2893-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2893-2015, 2015
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We adjusted the topographical and rainfall erosivity factors that are the triggers of erosion in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model to make the model better applicable at coarse resolution on a global scale. The adjusted RUSLE model compares much better to current high resolution estimates of soil erosion in the USA and Europe. It therefore provides a basis for estimating past and future global impacts of soil erosion on climate with the use of Earth system models.
X. Yue, L. J. Mickley, J. A. Logan, R. C. Hudman, M. V. Martin, and R. M. Yantosca
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10033–10055, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015, 2015
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Based on simulated meteorology from 13 GCMs, we projected future wildfire activity in Alaskan and Canadian ecoregions by the mid-century. The most robust change is the increase of 150-390% in area burned over Alaska and western Canada. The models also predict an increase of 45-90% in the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, but a decrease of up to 50% in northern Canada. We further quantify how the changes in wildfire emissions may affect ozone concentrations in North America.
C. D. Koven, J. Q. Chambers, K. Georgiou, R. Knox, R. Negron-Juarez, W. J. Riley, V. K. Arora, V. Brovkin, P. Friedlingstein, and C. D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 12, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, 2015
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Terrestrial carbon feedbacks are a large uncertainty in climate change. We separate modeled feedback responses into those governed by changed carbon inputs (productivity) and changed outputs (turnover). The disaggregated responses show that both are important in controlling inter-model uncertainty. Interactions between productivity and turnover are also important, and research must focus on these interactions for more accurate projections of carbon cycle feedbacks.
X. Lin, N. K. Indira, M. Ramonet, M. Delmotte, P. Ciais, B. C. Bhatt, M. V. Reddy, D. Angchuk, S. Balakrishnan, S. Jorphail, T. Dorjai, T. T. Mahey, S. Patnaik, M. Begum, C. Brenninkmeijer, S. Durairaj, R. Kirubagaran, M. Schmidt, P. S. Swathi, N. V. Vinithkumar, C. Yver Kwok, and V. K. Gaur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9819–9849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9819-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9819-2015, 2015
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We present 5-year flask measurements (2007–2011) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at three atmospheric stations in India. The results suggest significant sources of CO2, CH4, N2O, CO, and H2 over S and NE India, while SF6 sources are weak. The seasonal cycles for each species reflect the seasonality of sources/sinks and influences of the Indian monsoon circulations. The data show potential to infer regional patterns of GHG fluxes and atmospheric transport over this under-documented region.
A. Babenhauserheide, S. Basu, S. Houweling, W. Peters, and A. Butz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9747–9763, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9747-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9747-2015, 2015
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We compare two different data assimilation systems for estimating sources and sinks of CO_2 from concentration measurements. The systems are CarbonTracker and TM5-4DVar, which have both been used in a number of scientific studies. We analyze the differences between both models as well as the sensitivity of the estimated sources and sinks to the observation coverage. The results provide a lower limit for the uncertainty of surface carbon fluxes with the current measurement network.
R. Locatelli, P. Bousquet, M. Saunois, F. Chevallier, and C. Cressot
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9765–9780, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9765-2015, 2015
T. Launois, P. Peylin, S. Belviso, and B. Poulter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9285–9312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9285-2015, 2015
O. Aumont, C. Ethé, A. Tagliabue, L. Bopp, and M. Gehlen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2465–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, 2015
N. Andela, J. W. Kaiser, G. R. van der Werf, and M. J. Wooster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8831–8846, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8831-2015, 2015
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The polar orbiting MODIS instruments provide four daily observations of the fire diurnal cycle, resulting in erroneous fire radiative energy (FRE) estimates. Using geostationary SEVIRI data, we explore the fire diurnal cycle and its drivers for Africa to develop a new method to estimate global FRE in near real-time using MODIS. The fire diurnal cycle varied with climate and vegetation type, and including information on the fire diurnal cycle in the model significantly improved the FRE estimates.
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
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In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
X. Yue, N. Unger, T. F. Keenan, X. Zhang, and C. S. Vogel
Biogeosciences, 12, 4693–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4693-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4693-2015, 2015
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We performed model inter-comparison and selected the best model capturing the spatial and temporal variations of observations to predict trends of forest phenology over the past 3 decades. Our results show that phenological trends, which are dominantly driven by temperature changes, are not uniform over the contiguous USA, with a significant spring advance in the east, an autumn delay in the northeast and west, but no evidence of change elsewhere.
A. Jahn, K. Lindsay, X. Giraud, N. Gruber, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, Z. Liu, and E. C. Brady
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2419–2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2419-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2419-2015, 2015
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Carbon isotopes have been added to the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). This paper describes the details of how the abiotic 14C tracer and the biotic 13C and 14C tracers were added to the existing ocean model of the CESM. In addition, it shows the first results of the new model features compared to observational data for the 1990s.
X. Yue and N. Unger
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2399–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2399-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2399-2015, 2015
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The Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere model (YIBs) predicts land carbon fluxes and tree growth based on mature schemes but with special updates in phenology, ozone vegetation damage, and photosynthetic-dependent biogenic volatile organic compounds. Evaluations with data from 145 flux tower sites and multiple satellite products show that the model predicts reasonable magnitude, seasonality, and spatial distribution of land carbon fluxes.
B. Poulter, N. MacBean, A. Hartley, I. Khlystova, O. Arino, R. Betts, S. Bontemps, M. Boettcher, C. Brockmann, P. Defourny, S. Hagemann, M. Herold, G. Kirches, C. Lamarche, D. Lederer, C. Ottlé, M. Peters, and P. Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2315–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, 2015
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Land cover is an essential variable in earth system models and determines conditions driving biogeochemical, energy and water exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere. A methodology is presented for mapping plant functional types used in global vegetation models from a updated land cover classification system and open-source conversion tool, resulting from a consultative process among map producers and modelers engaged in the European Space Agency’s Land Cover Climate Change Initiative.
A. I. Stegehuis, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A. J. Teuling, D. G. Miralles, and M. Wild
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2285–2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, 2015
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Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes such as heat wave conditions. We use a regional climate model with different atmospheric physics schemes to simulate the heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. The five best-performing and diverse physics scheme combinations may be used in the future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of climate change in summer in Europe.
L. Molina, G. Broquet, P. Imbach, F. Chevallier, B. Poulter, D. Bonal, B. Burban, M. Ramonet, L. V. Gatti, S. C. Wofsy, J. W. Munger, E. Dlugokencky, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8423–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8423-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8423-2015, 2015
D. Zhu, S. S. Peng, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, A. Druel, M. Kageyama, G. Krinner, P. Peylin, C. Ottlé, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, D. Schepaschenko, and A. Shvidenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2263–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, 2015
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This study presents a new parameterization of the vegetation dynamics module in the process-based ecosystem model ORCHIDEE for mid- to high-latitude regions, showing significant improvements in the modeled distribution of tree functional types north of 40°N. A new set of metrics is proposed to quantify the performance of ORCHIDEE, which integrates uncertainties in the observational data sets.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
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We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
W. D. Collins, A. P. Craig, J. E. Truesdale, A. V. Di Vittorio, A. D. Jones, B. Bond-Lamberty, K. V. Calvin, J. A. Edmonds, S. H. Kim, A. M. Thomson, P. Patel, Y. Zhou, J. Mao, X. Shi, P. E. Thornton, L. P. Chini, and G. C. Hurtt
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2203–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2203-2015, 2015
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The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a
new tool for projecting the joint human-climate system. The
iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM)
and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling
infrastructure. By introducing heretofore-omitted
feedbacks between natural and societal drivers in iESM, we can improve
scientific understanding of the human-Earth system
dynamics.
C. E. Yver Kwok, D. Müller, C. Caldow, B. Lebègue, J. G. Mønster, C. W. Rella, C. Scheutz, M. Schmidt, M. Ramonet, T. Warneke, G. Broquet, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2853–2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2853-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2853-2015, 2015
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This study presents two methods for estimating methane emissions from a waste water treatment plant (WWTP) along with results from a measurement campaign at a WWTP in Valence, France. We show that the tracer release method is suitable to quantify facility emissions, while the chamber measurements, provide insights into individual processes. We confirm that the open basins are not a major source of CH4 on the WWTP but that the pretreatment and sludge treatment are the main emitters.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
K. Nishina, A. Ito, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, D. J. Beerling, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, R. Kahana, E. Kato, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, 2015
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Our study focused on uncertainties in terrestrial C cycling under newly developed scenarios with CMIP5. This study presents first results for examining relative uncertainties of projected terrestrial C cycling in multiple projection components. Only using our new model inter-comparison project data sets enables us to evaluate various uncertainty sources in projection periods. The information on relative uncertainties is useful for climate science and climate change impact evaluation.
J. Martinez-Rey, L. Bopp, M. Gehlen, A. Tagliabue, and N. Gruber
Biogeosciences, 12, 4133–4148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4133-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4133-2015, 2015
K. Naudts, J. Ryder, M. J. McGrath, J. Otto, Y. Chen, A. Valade, V. Bellasen, G. Berhongaray, G. Bönisch, M. Campioli, J. Ghattas, T. De Groote, V. Haverd, J. Kattge, N. MacBean, F. Maignan, P. Merilä, J. Penuelas, P. Peylin, B. Pinty, H. Pretzsch, E. D. Schulze, D. Solyga, N. Vuichard, Y. Yan, and S. Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2035–2065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2035-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2035-2015, 2015
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Despite the potential of forest management to mitigate climate change, none of today's predictions of future climate accounts for the impact of forest management. To address this gap in modelling capability, we developed and parametrised a land-surface model to simulate biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management. Comparison of model output against data showed an increased model performance in reproducing large-scale spatial patterns and inter-annual variability over Europe.
N. Vuichard and D. Papale
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 157–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-157-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-157-2015, 2015
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In order to fill the gaps in the in situ meteorological data that is acquired at FLUXNET stations, we develop a method that makes use of the reanalysis ERA-interim, which is available globally and at a high temporal resolution. Because the ERA-interim data are not measured at site level, we bias-correct them. The developed method is applied and evaluated at 153 FLUXNET stations. The final product consists of uninterrupted meteorological records that can be used for running most ecosystem models.
G. Wohlfahrt, C. Amelynck, C. Ammann, A. Arneth, I. Bamberger, A. H. Goldstein, L. Gu, A. Guenther, A. Hansel, B. Heinesch, T. Holst, L. Hörtnagl, T. Karl, Q. Laffineur, A. Neftel, K. McKinney, J. W. Munger, S. G. Pallardy, G. W. Schade, R. Seco, and N. Schoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7413–7427, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7413-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7413-2015, 2015
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Methanol is the second most abundant volatile organic compound in the troposphere and plays a significant role in atmospheric chemistry. While there is consensus about the dominant role of plants as the major source and the reaction with OH as the major sink, global methanol budgets diverge considerably in terms of source/sink estimates. Here we present micrometeorological methanol flux data from eight sites in order to provide a first cross-site synthesis of the terrestrial methanol exchange.
E. Joetzjer, C. Delire, H. Douville, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, D. Carrer, H. Verbeeck, M. De Weirdt, and D. Bonal
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1709-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1709-2015, 2015
C. Heinze, S. Meyer, N. Goris, L. Anderson, R. Steinfeldt, N. Chang, C. Le Quéré, and D. C. E. Bakker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 327–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, 2015
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Rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by human actions over the past 250 years have raised cause for concern that changes in Earth’s climate system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past 20,000 years. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon inventory will affect its ecosystems. Major future ocean carbon research challenges are discussed.
R. Wang, Y. Balkanski, O. Boucher, L. Bopp, A. Chappell, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, J. Peñuelas, and S. Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6247–6270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, 2015
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This study makes a first attempt to estimate the temporal trend of Fe emissions from anthropogenic and natural combustion sources from 1960 to 2007 and the emissions of Fe from mineral dust based on a recent mineralogical database. The new emission inventory is introduced into a global aerosol model. The simulated total Fe and soluble Fe concentrations in surface air as well as the deposition of total Fe are evaluated by observations over major continental and oceanic regions globally.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
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We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
N. Bouttes, D. M. Roche, V. Mariotti, and L. Bopp
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1563–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1563-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1563-2015, 2015
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We describe the development of a relatively simple climate model to include a model of the carbon cycle in the ocean. The carbon cycle consists of the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, land vegetation and ocean. In the ocean, carbon exists in organic form, such as plankton which grows and dies, and inorganic forms, such as dissolved CO2. With this we will be able to explore long-standing questions such as why the atmospheric CO2 has changed over time during the last million years.
J. Karstensen, G. P. Peters, and R. M. Andrew
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 287–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-287-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-287-2015, 2015
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We quantify uncertainties in estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants, the metric used and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are dominated by metric parameters and emission uncertainties, while the economic data appear to have small uncertainties at the national level.
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
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Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
T. De Groote, D. Zona, L. S. Broeckx, M. S. Verlinden, S. Luyssaert, V. Bellassen, N. Vuichard, R. Ceulemans, A. Gobin, and I. A. Janssens
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1461–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1461-2015, 2015
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This paper describes the modification of the widely used land surface model ORCHIDEE for stand-scale simulations of short rotation coppice (SRC) plantations. The modifications presented in this paper were evaluated using data from two Belgian poplar-based SRC sites, for which multiple measurements and meteorological data were available. The simulations show that the model predicts aboveground biomass production, ecosystem photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration well.
T. Roy, F. Lombard, L. Bopp, and M. Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 12, 2873–2889, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2873-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2873-2015, 2015
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, and T. T. van Leeuwen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1321–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1321-2015, 2015
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We conducted parallel simulations using a global land surface model, with and without fires being included, respectively. When the anthropogenic land cover change fire is excluded, we find that natural wildfires have reduced the global land carbon uptake by 0.3Pg C per year over 1901-2012. This is equivalent to 20% of the land carbon uptake in a world without fire. This fire-induced reduction in carbon uptake could be partly explained by climate variability, in particular the ENSO events.
C. Evenhuis, A. Lenton, N. E. Cantin, and J. M. Lough
Biogeosciences, 12, 2607–2630, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2607-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2607-2015, 2015
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Coral reefs are diverse ecosystems threatened by rising CO2 levels through increases in sea surface temperature and ocean acidification. This study presents a new unified model, based on experimental and observational data, that links changes in temperature and carbonate chemistry to coral health. We show that, despite the implicit complexity of the coral reef environment, our simple model can give important insights into how corals respond to changes in temperature and ocean acidification.
A. P. Ballantyne, R. Andres, R. Houghton, B. D. Stocker, R. Wanninkhof, W. Anderegg, L. A. Cooper, M. DeGrandpre, P. P. Tans, J. B. Miller, C. Alden, and J. W. C. White
Biogeosciences, 12, 2565–2584, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015, 2015
S. Gonzi, P. I. Palmer, R. Paugam, M. Wooster, and M. N. Deeter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 4339–4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-4339-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-4339-2015, 2015
S. Olin, G. Schurgers, M. Lindeskog, D. Wårlind, B. Smith, P. Bodin, J. Holmér, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015
T. Osborne, J. Gornall, J. Hooker, K. Williams, A. Wiltshire, R. Betts, and T. Wheeler
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1139-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1139-2015, 2015
R. J. Matear, A. Lenton, D. Etheridge, and S. J. Phipps
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-1093-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-1093-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Global climate models provide an important tool for simulating the earth's climate. Here we present a simulation of the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, which was obtained by setting atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the earth's orbital parameters to the 21 000 years before present values. We simulate an ocean behaviour that agrees with paleoclimate reconstructions supporting our ability to model the climate system and use the model to explore the impacts on the carbon cycle.
M. D. Jolleys, H. Coe, G. McFiggans, J. W. Taylor, S. J. O'Shea, M. Le Breton, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, S. Moller, P. Di Carlo, E. Aruffo, P. I. Palmer, J. D. Lee, C. J. Percival, and M. W. Gallagher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3077–3095, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3077-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3077-2015, 2015
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Particulate emissions in the form of organic aerosol from boreal forest fires in Canada have been measured during an aircraft measurement campaign. Ratios of the amount of aerosol emitted relative to gas species such as CO were calculated and show high levels of variability throughout the campaign. This variability is affected by both changes in fire conditions, as fires tended to die down later in the measurement period, and by changes to the aerosol due to chemical reactions in the atmosphere.
F. Pacifico, G. A. Folberth, S. Sitch, J. M. Haywood, L. V. Rizzo, F. F. Malavelle, and P. Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2791–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, 2015
R. A. Betts, N. Golding, P. Gonzalez, J. Gornall, R. Kahana, G. Kay, L. Mitchell, and A. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 12, 1317–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015, 2015
T. Launois, S. Belviso, L. Bopp, C. G. Fichot, and P. Peylin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2295–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2295-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2295-2015, 2015
S. K. Lauvset, N. Gruber, P. Landschützer, A. Olsen, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 12, 1285–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1285-2015, 2015
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This paper utilizes the SOCATv2 data product to calculate surface ocean pH. The pH data are divided into 17 biomes, and a linear regression is used to derive the long-term trend of pH in each biome. The results are consistent with the trends observed at time series stations. The uncertainties are too large for a mechanistic understanding of the driving forces behind the trend, but there are indications that concurrent changes in chemistry create spatial variability.
J. R. Melton, R. K. Shrestha, and V. K. Arora
Biogeosciences, 12, 1151–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1151-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1151-2015, 2015
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Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in seasonally dry Amazon forests varies
greatly between sites with similar precipitation patterns. We ran CLASS-CTEM at two LBA Amazon sites (Tapajós 83km & Jarú Reserve) that exhibit opposite seasonal NEP cycles despite reasonably similar meteorological conditions. We find the influence of soil texture and depth, through soil moisture, on seasonal patterns of GPP and, especially, heterotrophic respiration is important for correctly simulating NEP seasonality.
F. M. Bréon, G. Broquet, V. Puygrenier, F. Chevallier, I. Xueref-Remy, M. Ramonet, E. Dieudonné, M. Lopez, M. Schmidt, O. Perrussel, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1707–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1707-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1707-2015, 2015
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
P. Brandt, H. W. Bange, D. Banyte, M. Dengler, S.-H. Didwischus, T. Fischer, R. J. Greatbatch, J. Hahn, T. Kanzow, J. Karstensen, A. Körtzinger, G. Krahmann, S. Schmidtko, L. Stramma, T. Tanhua, and M. Visbeck
Biogeosciences, 12, 489–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-489-2015, 2015
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Our observational study looks at the structure of the eastern tropical North Atlantic (ETNA) oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in comparison with the less-ventilated, eastern tropical South Pacific OMZ. We quantify the OMZ’s oxygen budget composed of consumption, advection, lateral and vertical mixing. Substantial oxygen variability is observed on interannual to multidecadal timescales. The deoxygenation of the ETNA OMZ during the last decades represents a substantial imbalance of the oxygen budget.
B. Aouizerats, G. R. van der Werf, R. Balasubramanian, and R. Betha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 363–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-363-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-363-2015, 2015
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In this study, we simulated the regional transport and evolution of biomass burning occurring in Indonesia during the high fire event in 2006.
We studied and quantified the contribution of those fires to the Singapore pollution levels.
This high resolution modelling study showed that about half of the particulate pollution events in Singapore were mainly due to fires occurring in Sumatra (Indonesia), while the other half were due to local pollution.
M. Heinze and T. Ilyina
Clim. Past, 11, 63–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-63-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-63-2015, 2015
C. D. Nevison, M. Manizza, R. F. Keeling, M. Kahru, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, J. Tiputra, T. Ilyina, and B. G. Mitchell
Biogeosciences, 12, 193–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-193-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-193-2015, 2015
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The observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) at five surface monitoring sites are compared to those inferred from the air-sea O2 fluxes of six ocean biogeochemistry models. The simulated air-sea fluxes are translated into APO seasonal cycles using a matrix method that takes into account atmospheric transport model (ATM) uncertainty among 13 different ATMs. Net primary production (NPP), estimated from satellite ocean color data, is also compared to model output.
A. Oviedo, P. Ziveri, M. Álvarez, and T. Tanhua
Ocean Sci., 11, 13–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-13-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-13-2015, 2015
M. Combe, J. Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, H. G. Ouwersloot, C. M. J. Jacobs, and W. Peters
Biogeosciences, 12, 103–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-103-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-103-2015, 2015
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This study investigates the interactions among the carbon, water and heat cycles above a maize field at the diurnal scale. We couple two land-surface schemes, corresponding to two different modelling approaches, to the same atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) model. We find the simpler meteorological approach best reproduces the surface and upper-air observations. Finally, we show that the interaction of subsidence with ABL dynamics is key to explain the daytime atmospheric CO2 budget.
D. P. Finch, P. I. Palmer, and M. Parrington
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13789–13800, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13789-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13789-2014, 2014
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We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to quantify the CO sources responsible for the observed CO during the BORTAS-B campaign over Canada in 2011. We found the largest source was biomass burning from Ontario, with smaller sources from fossil fuel emissions from Asia and NE US. We develop an age-of-emission metric and show values in BORTAS-B are consistent with a slowing of photochemistry in plumes. Indirect evidence suggests this slowing is due to aerosols within the plumes.
J. W. Taylor, J. D. Allan, G. Allen, H. Coe, P. I. Williams, M. J. Flynn, M. Le Breton, J. B. A. Muller, C. J. Percival, D. Oram, G. Forster, J. D. Lee, A. R. Rickard, M. Parrington, and P. I. Palmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13755–13771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13755-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13755-2014, 2014
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We present a case study of BC wet removal by examining aerosol properties in three biomass burning plumes, one of which passed through a precipitating cloud. Nucleation scavenging preferentially removed the largest and most coated BC-containing particles. Calculated single-scattering albedo (SSA) showed little variation, as a large number of non-BC particles were also present in the precipitation-affected plume.
T. T. van Leeuwen, G. R. van der Werf, A. A. Hoffmann, R. G. Detmers, G. Rücker, N. H. F. French, S. Archibald, J. A. Carvalho Jr., G. D. Cook, W. J. de Groot, C. Hély, E. S. Kasischke, S. Kloster, J. L. McCarty, M. L. Pettinari, P. Savadogo, E. C. Alvarado, L. Boschetti, S. Manuri, C. P. Meyer, F. Siegert, L. A. Trollope, and W. S. W. Trollope
Biogeosciences, 11, 7305–7329, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7305-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7305-2014, 2014
L. Kwiatkowski, A. Yool, J. I. Allen, T. R. Anderson, R. Barciela, E. T. Buitenhuis, M. Butenschön, C. Enright, P. R. Halloran, C. Le Quéré, L. de Mora, M.-F. Racault, B. Sinha, I. J. Totterdell, and P. M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 11, 7291–7304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, 2014
K. A. Masarie, W. Peters, A. R. Jacobson, and P. P. Tans
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 375–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-375-2014, 2014
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Observation Package (ObsPack) is a framework designed to bring together atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements from a variety of sampling platforms, prepare them with specific applications in mind, and package and distribute them in a self-consistent and well-documented product. The framework includes a unique distribution stategy designed to improve communication between product users and data providers. The concepts presented are general and may be easily applied to other scientific data.
C. Lo Monaco, N. Metzl, F. D'Ovidio, J. Llort, and C. Ridame
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-17543-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-17543-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
M. Gehlen, R. Séférian, D. O. B. Jones, T. Roy, R. Roth, J. Barry, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, C. Heinze, F. Joos, J. C. Orr, L. Resplandy, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 11, 6955–6967, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, 2014
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This study evaluates potential impacts of pH reductions on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to latest IPCC scenarios.Multi-model projections of pH changes over the seafloor are analysed with reference to a critical threshold based on palaeo-oceanographic studies, contemporary observations and model results. By 2100 under the most severe IPCC CO2 scenario, pH reductions occur over ~23% of deep-sea canyons and ~8% of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as marine protected areas.
E. Joetzjer, C. Delire, H. Douville, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, R. Fisher, B. Christoffersen, J. C. Calvet, A. C. L. da Costa, L. V. Ferreira, and P. Meir
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2933–2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2933-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2933-2014, 2014
N. R. Bates, R. Garley, K. E. Frey, K. L. Shake, and J. T. Mathis
Biogeosciences, 11, 6769–6789, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6769-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6769-2014, 2014
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In a era or rapid warming and sea-ice loss in the Arctic Ocean, the paper describes the variability of seawater carbon dioxide (CO2) in summertime sea-ice melt pond water in the Pacific Arctic region, and the impact of melt pond chemistry upon the underlying upper ocean.
A. Fraser, P. I. Palmer, L. Feng, H. Bösch, R. Parker, E. J. Dlugokencky, P. B. Krummel, and R. L. Langenfelds
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12883–12895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12883-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12883-2014, 2014
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Satellite measurements of CO2 and CH4 can be subject to regional systematic errors that can consequently compromise their ability to infer robust flux estimates of these two gases. We develop a method to use retrieved ratios of CH4 and CO2 that are less affected by systematic error. We show that additional in situ data are needed to anchor these observed ratios so they can simultaneously infer fluxes of CO2 and CH4. We argue the ratio data will provide a more faithful description of true fluxes.
L. Ammoura, I. Xueref-Remy, V. Gros, A. Baudic, B. Bonsang, J.-E. Petit, O. Perrussel, N. Bonnaire, J. Sciare, and F. Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 12871–12882, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12871-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-12871-2014, 2014
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We present the first study of CO2, VOCs and NOx measured all together in a road tunnel around the Paris megacity with the aim to quantify the ratios of these species co-emitted within traffic emissions. It allows us to independently assess some of the ratios provided in the latest Paris emission inventory. It also reveals a large variability of the ratios to CO2, implying that traffic does not have a unique imprint in the urban plume, but rather leaves various signatures.
Y. Wei, S. Liu, D. N. Huntzinger, A. M. Michalak, N. Viovy, W. M. Post, C. R. Schwalm, K. Schaefer, A. R. Jacobson, C. Lu, H. Tian, D. M. Ricciuto, R. B. Cook, J. Mao, and X. Shi
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2875-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2875-2014, 2014
P. Bodin, S. Olin, T. A. M. Pugh, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Food security is defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In regions where food security is highly dependent on local production it is thus of importance to produce not only enough calories but also to minimize variation in yield. This trade-off is investigated here using simulated crop yield and by selecting relative distributions of crops. The results show a large potential to either increase food production or to decrease its variance by applying optimized crop selection.
I. R. van der Velde, J. B. Miller, K. Schaefer, G. R. van der Werf, M. C. Krol, and W. Peters
Biogeosciences, 11, 6553–6571, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6553-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6553-2014, 2014
F. Fendereski, M. Vogt, M. R. Payne, Z. Lachkar, N. Gruber, A. Salmanmahiny, and S. A. Hosseini
Biogeosciences, 11, 6451–6470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6451-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6451-2014, 2014
A. V. Di Vittorio, L. P. Chini, B. Bond-Lamberty, J. Mao, X. Shi, J. Truesdale, A. Craig, K. Calvin, A. Jones, W. D. Collins, J. Edmonds, G. C. Hurtt, P. Thornton, and A. Thomson
Biogeosciences, 11, 6435–6450, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6435-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6435-2014, 2014
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Economic models provide scenarios of land use and greenhouse gas emissions to earth system models to project global change. We found, and partially addressed, inconsistencies in land cover between an economic and an earth system model that effectively alter a prescribed scenario, causing significant differences in projected terrestrial carbon and atmospheric CO2 between prescribed and altered scenarios. We outline a solution to this current problem in scenario-based global change projections.
M. Van Oijen, J. Balkovi, C. Beer, D. R. Cameron, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, T. Kato, M. Kuhnert, R. Martin, R. Myneni, A. Rammig, S. Rolinski, J.-F. Soussana, K. Thonicke, M. Van der Velde, and L. Xu
Biogeosciences, 11, 6357–6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, 2014
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We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, S. Archibald, B. Poulter, W. M. Hao, S. Hantson, F. Mouillot, P. Friedlingstein, F. Maignan, and N. Viovy
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2747–2767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, 2014
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ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE model could moderately capture the decadal trend and variation of burned area during the 20th century, and the spatial and temporal patterns of contemporary vegetation fires. The model has a better performance in simulating fires for regions dominated by climate-driven fires, such as boreal forests. However, it has limited capability to reproduce the infrequent but important large fires in different ecosystems, where urgent model improvement is needed in the future.
A. Agustí-Panareda, S. Massart, F. Chevallier, S. Boussetta, G. Balsamo, A. Beljaars, P. Ciais, N. M. Deutscher, R. Engelen, L. Jones, R. Kivi, J.-D. Paris, V.-H. Peuch, V. Sherlock, A. T. Vermeulen, P. O. Wennberg, and D. Wunch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11959–11983, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014, 2014
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This paper presents a new operational CO2 forecast product as part of the Copernicus Atmospheric Services suite of atmospheric composition products, using the state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The evaluation with independent observations shows that the forecast has skill in predicting the synoptic variability of CO2. The online simulation of CO2 fluxes from vegetation contributes to this skill.
D. Wårlind, B. Smith, T. Hickler, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014
S. Kuppel, P. Peylin, F. Maignan, F. Chevallier, G. Kiely, L. Montagnani, and A. Cescatti
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2581–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2581-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2581-2014, 2014
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A consistent calibration of an advanced land surface model was performed by grouping in situ information on land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon and water using broad ecosystem and climate classes. Signatures of improved carbon cycle simulations were found across spatial and temporal scales, along with insights into current model limitations. These results hold promising perspectives within the ongoing efforts towards building robust model-data fusion frameworks for earth system models.
A. J. Sutton, C. L. Sabine, S. Maenner-Jones, N. Lawrence-Slavas, C. Meinig, R. A. Feely, J. T. Mathis, S. Musielewicz, R. Bott, P. D. McLain, H. J. Fought, and A. Kozyr
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 353–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-353-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-353-2014, 2014
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In an effort to track ocean change, sustained ocean observations are becoming increasingly important. Advancements in the ocean carbon observation network over the last decade have dramatically improved our ability to understand how rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change affect the chemistry of the oceans and their marine ecosystems. Here we describe one of those advancements, the MAPCO2 system, and the climate-quality data produced from 14 ocean CO2 observatories.
G. R. van der Werf and A. J. Dolman
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 375–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-375-2014, 2014
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Climate sensitivity can be quantified using measured changes in temperature and forcings. This approach requires disentangling natural and anthropogenic influences on global climate. We focused on the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in this and show how different AMO characterizations influence the anthropogenic temperature trends (we found they were in between previously published values) and transient climate sensitivity, which we found to be 1.6 (1.0-3.3)°C.
C. Wilson, M. P. Chipperfield, M. Gloor, and F. Chevallier
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2485–2500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2485-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2485-2014, 2014
D. Nomura, H. Yoshikawa-Inoue, S. Kobayashi, S. Nakaoka, K. Nakata, and G. Hashida
Biogeosciences, 11, 5749–5761, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5749-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5749-2014, 2014
I. B. Konovalov, E. V. Berezin, P. Ciais, G. Broquet, M. Beekmann, J. Hadji-Lazaro, C. Clerbaux, M. O. Andreae, J. W. Kaiser, and E.-D. Schulze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10383–10410, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10383-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10383-2014, 2014
L. R. Boysen, V. Brovkin, V. K. Arora, P. Cadule, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, E. Kato, J. Pongratz, and V. Gayler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 309–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-309-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-309-2014, 2014
J. P. Boisier, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, and P. Ciais
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3571–3590, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3571-2014, 2014
S. Wilkenskjeld, S. Kloster, J. Pongratz, T. Raddatz, and C. H. Reick
Biogeosciences, 11, 4817–4828, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4817-2014, 2014
C. Rödenbeck, D. C. E. Bakker, N. Metzl, A. Olsen, C. Sabine, N. Cassar, F. Reum, R. F. Keeling, and M. Heimann
Biogeosciences, 11, 4599–4613, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4599-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4599-2014, 2014
J. E. Franklin, J. R. Drummond, D. Griffin, J. R. Pierce, D. L. Waugh, P. I. Palmer, M. Parrington, J. D. Lee, A. C. Lewis, A. R. Rickard, J. W. Taylor, J. D. Allan, H. Coe, K. A. Walker, L. Chisholm, T. J. Duck, J. T. Hopper, Y. Blanchard, M. D. Gibson, K. R. Curry, K. M. Sakamoto, G. Lesins, L. Dan, J. Kliever, and A. Saha
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8449–8460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8449-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8449-2014, 2014
B. P. Guillod, B. Orlowsky, D. Miralles, A. J. Teuling, P. D. Blanken, N. Buchmann, P. Ciais, M. Ek, K. L. Findell, P. Gentine, B. R. Lintner, R. L. Scott, B. Van den Hurk, and S. I. Seneviratne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8343–8367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, 2014
M. Ribas-Ribas, V. M. C. Rérolle, D. C. E. Bakker, V. Kitidis, G. A. Lee, I. Brown, E. P. Achterberg, N. J. Hardman-Mountford, and T. Tyrrell
Biogeosciences, 11, 4339–4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4339-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4339-2014, 2014
J. B. Fisher, M. Sikka, W. C. Oechel, D. N. Huntzinger, J. R. Melton, C. D. Koven, A. Ahlström, M. A. Arain, I. Baker, J. M. Chen, P. Ciais, C. Davidson, M. Dietze, B. El-Masri, D. Hayes, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, P. E. Levy, M. R. Lomas, B. Poulter, D. Price, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, H. Tian, E. Tomelleri, H. Verbeeck, N. Viovy, R. Wania, N. Zeng, and C. E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 11, 4271–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, 2014
V. K. Arora and G. J. Boer
Biogeosciences, 11, 4157–4171, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4157-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4157-2014, 2014
K. B. Rodgers, O. Aumont, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Y. Plancherel, L. Bopp, C. de Boyer Montégut, D. Iudicone, R. F. Keeling, G. Madec, and R. Wanninkhof
Biogeosciences, 11, 4077–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4077-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4077-2014, 2014
V. Haverd, B. Smith, L. P. Nieradzik, and P. R. Briggs
Biogeosciences, 11, 4039–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4039-2014, 2014
R. J. Matear and A. Lenton
Biogeosciences, 11, 3965–3983, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3965-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3965-2014, 2014
M. Schmidt, M. Lopez, C. Yver Kwok, C. Messager, M. Ramonet, B. Wastine, C. Vuillemin, F. Truong, B. Gal, E. Parmentier, O. Cloué, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2283–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2283-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2283-2014, 2014
D. Hainbucher, A. Rubino, V. Cardin, T. Tanhua, K. Schroeder, and M. Bensi
Ocean Sci., 10, 669–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-669-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-669-2014, 2014
A. Arneth, S. Olin, R. Makkonen, P. Paasonen, T. Holst, M. Kajos, M. Kulmala, T. Maximov, P. A. Miller, and G. Schurgers
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-19149-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-19149-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
D. Bozhinova, M. K. van der Molen, I. R. van der Velde, M. C. Krol, S. van der Laan, H. A. J. Meijer, and W. Peters
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7273–7290, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7273-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7273-2014, 2014
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
N. M. Fyllas, E. Gloor, L. M. Mercado, S. Sitch, C. A. Quesada, T. F. Domingues, D. R. Galbraith, A. Torre-Lezama, E. Vilanova, H. Ramírez-Angulo, N. Higuchi, D. A. Neill, M. Silveira, L. Ferreira, G. A. Aymard C., Y. Malhi, O. L. Phillips, and J. Lloyd
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1251–1269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1251-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1251-2014, 2014
M. R. Raupach, M. Gloor, J. L. Sarmiento, J. G. Canadell, T. L. Frölicher, T. Gasser, R. A. Houghton, C. Le Quéré, and C. M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 11, 3453–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014, 2014
A. Valade, P. Ciais, N. Vuichard, N. Viovy, A. Caubel, N. Huth, F. Marin, and J.-F. Martiné
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1225–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1225-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1225-2014, 2014
R. L. Thompson, K. Ishijima, E. Saikawa, M. Corazza, U. Karstens, P. K. Patra, P. Bergamaschi, F. Chevallier, E. Dlugokencky, R. G. Prinn, R. F. Weiss, S. O'Doherty, P. J. Fraser, L. P. Steele, P. B. Krummel, A. Vermeulen, Y. Tohjima, A. Jordan, L. Haszpra, M. Steinbacher, S. Van der Laan, T. Aalto, F. Meinhardt, M. E. Popa, J. Moncrieff, and P. Bousquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6177–6194, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6177-2014, 2014
S. Massart, A. Agusti-Panareda, I. Aben, A. Butz, F. Chevallier, C. Crevoisier, R. Engelen, C. Frankenberg, and O. Hasekamp
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6139–6158, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6139-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6139-2014, 2014
C. Rumpel, V. Chaplot, P. Ciais, A. Chabbi, B. Bouahom, and C. Valentin
Biogeosciences, 11, 3299–3305, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3299-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3299-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
X. Wu, F. Babst, P. Ciais, D. Frank, M. Reichstein, M. Wattenbach, C. Zang, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 11, 3057–3068, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, 2014
H. F. Zhang, B. Z. Chen, I. T. van der Laan-Luijk, T. Machida, H. Matsueda, Y. Sawa, Y. Fukuyama, R. Langenfelds, M. van der Schoot, G. Xu, J. W. Yan, M. L. Cheng, L. X. Zhou, P. P. Tans, and W. Peters
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5807–5824, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5807-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5807-2014, 2014
M. Guimberteau, A. Ducharne, P. Ciais, J. P. Boisier, S. Peng, M. De Weirdt, and H. Verbeeck
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1115–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1115-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1115-2014, 2014
T. Stöven and T. Tanhua
Ocean Sci., 10, 439–457, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-439-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-439-2014, 2014
L. Zhang, D. J. Jacob, X. Yue, N. V. Downey, D. A. Wood, and D. Blewitt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5295–5309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5295-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5295-2014, 2014
C. M. Hoppe, H. Elbern, and J. Schwinger
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1025–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1025-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1025-2014, 2014
A. J. Wiltshire
The Cryosphere, 8, 941–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-941-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-941-2014, 2014
M. Balzarolo, S. Boussetta, G. Balsamo, A. Beljaars, F. Maignan, J.-C. Calvet, S. Lafont, A. Barbu, B. Poulter, F. Chevallier, C. Szczypta, and D. Papale
Biogeosciences, 11, 2661–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2661-2014, 2014
C. Szczypta, J.-C. Calvet, F. Maignan, W. Dorigo, F. Baret, and P. Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 931–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, 2014
P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, V. Artale, G. L. Borzelli-Eusebi, S. Brenner, A. Crise, M. Gacic, N. Kress, S. Marullo, M. Ribera d'Alcalà, S. Sofianos, T. Tanhua, A. Theocharis, M. Alvarez, Y. Ashkenazy, A. Bergamasco, V. Cardin, S. Carniel, G. Civitarese, F. D'Ortenzio, J. Font, E. Garcia-Ladona, J. M. Garcia-Lafuente, A. Gogou, M. Gregoire, D. Hainbucher, H. Kontoyannis, V. Kovacevic, E. Kraskapoulou, G. Kroskos, A. Incarbona, M. G. Mazzocchi, M. Orlic, E. Ozsoy, A. Pascual, P.-M. Poulain, W. Roether, A. Rubino, K. Schroeder, J. Siokou-Frangou, E. Souvermezoglou, M. Sprovieri, J. Tintoré, and G. Triantafyllou
Ocean Sci., 10, 281–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-281-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-281-2014, 2014
U. Schuster, A. J. Watson, D. C. E. Bakker, A. M. de Boer, E. M. Jones, G. A. Lee, O. Legge, A. Louwerse, J. Riley, and S. Scally
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 175–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-175-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-175-2014, 2014
K. E. O. Todd-Brown, J. T. Randerson, F. Hopkins, V. Arora, T. Hajima, C. Jones, E. Shevliakova, J. Tjiputra, E. Volodin, T. Wu, Q. Zhang, and S. D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 11, 2341–2356, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, 2014
P. Castellanos, K. F. Boersma, and G. R. van der Werf
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3929–3943, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3929-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3929-2014, 2014
B. Smith, D. Wårlind, A. Arneth, T. Hickler, P. Leadley, J. Siltberg, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014
K. Nishina, A. Ito, D. J. Beerling, P. Cadule, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, R. Kahana, E. Kato, R. Keribin, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, T. T. Rademacher, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, N. Vuichard, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 197–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, 2014
V. Racapé, N. Metzl, C. Pierre, G. Reverdin, P. D. Quay, and S. R. Olafsdottir
Biogeosciences, 11, 1683–1692, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1683-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1683-2014, 2014
J. Pongratz, C. H. Reick, R. A. Houghton, and J. I. House
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 177–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-177-2014, 2014
I. N. Fletcher, L. E. O. C. Aragão, A. Lima, Y. Shimabukuro, and P. Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 11, 1449–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1449-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1449-2014, 2014
S. X. Fang, L. X. Zhou, P. P. Tans, P. Ciais, M. Steinbacher, L. Xu, and T. Luan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2541–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2541-2014, 2014
D. C. E. Bakker, B. Pfeil, K. Smith, S. Hankin, A. Olsen, S. R. Alin, C. Cosca, S. Harasawa, A. Kozyr, Y. Nojiri, K. M. O'Brien, U. Schuster, M. Telszewski, B. Tilbrook, C. Wada, J. Akl, L. Barbero, N. R. Bates, J. Boutin, Y. Bozec, W.-J. Cai, R. D. Castle, F. P. Chavez, L. Chen, M. Chierici, K. Currie, H. J. W. de Baar, W. Evans, R. A. Feely, A. Fransson, Z. Gao, B. Hales, N. J. Hardman-Mountford, M. Hoppema, W.-J. Huang, C. W. Hunt, B. Huss, T. Ichikawa, T. Johannessen, E. M. Jones, S. D. Jones, S. Jutterström, V. Kitidis, A. Körtzinger, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. B. Manke, J. T. Mathis, L. Merlivat, N. Metzl, A. Murata, T. Newberger, A. M. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, K. Paterson, D. Pierrot, A. F. Ríos, C. L. Sabine, S. Saito, J. Salisbury, V. V. S. S. Sarma, R. Schlitzer, R. Sieger, I. Skjelvan, T. Steinhoff, K. F. Sullivan, H. Sun, A. J. Sutton, T. Suzuki, C. Sweeney, T. Takahashi, J. Tjiputra, N. Tsurushima, S. M. A. C. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, P. Vlahos, D. W. R. Wallace, R. Wanninkhof, and A. J. Watson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 69–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-69-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-69-2014, 2014
W. Knorr, T. Kaminski, A. Arneth, and U. Weber
Biogeosciences, 11, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, 2014
J. R. Melton and V. K. Arora
Biogeosciences, 11, 1021–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1021-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1021-2014, 2014
R. L. Thompson, F. Chevallier, A. M. Crotwell, G. Dutton, R. L. Langenfelds, R. G. Prinn, R. F. Weiss, Y. Tohjima, T. Nakazawa, P. B. Krummel, L. P. Steele, P. Fraser, S. O'Doherty, K. Ishijima, and S. Aoki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1801–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1801-2014, 2014
M. Álvarez, H. Sanleón-Bartolomé, T. Tanhua, L. Mintrop, A. Luchetta, C. Cantoni, K. Schroeder, and G. Civitarese
Ocean Sci., 10, 69–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-69-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-69-2014, 2014
M. Ishii, R. A. Feely, K. B. Rodgers, G.-H. Park, R. Wanninkhof, D. Sasano, H. Sugimoto, C. E. Cosca, S. Nakaoka, M. Telszewski, Y. Nojiri, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Y. Niwa, P. K. Patra, V. Valsala, H. Nakano, I. Lima, S. C. Doney, E. T. Buitenhuis, O. Aumont, J. P. Dunne, A. Lenton, and T. Takahashi
Biogeosciences, 11, 709–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-709-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-709-2014, 2014
G. Turi, Z. Lachkar, and N. Gruber
Biogeosciences, 11, 671–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-671-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-671-2014, 2014
Y. Peng, V. K. Arora, W. A. Kurz, R. A. Hember, B. J. Hawkins, J. C. Fyfe, and A. T. Werner
Biogeosciences, 11, 635–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-635-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-635-2014, 2014
D. Dalmonech, A. M. Foley, A. Anav, P. Friedlingstein, A. D. Friend, M. Kidston, M. Willeit, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
J. Holt, C. Schrum, H. Cannaby, U. Daewel, I. Allen, Y. Artioli, L. Bopp, M. Butenschon, B. A. Fach, J. Harle, D. Pushpadas, B. Salihoglu, and S. Wakelin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
C. R. Schwalm, D. N. Huntinzger, R. B. Cook, Y. Wei, I. T. Baker, R. P. Neilson, B. Poulter, P. Caldwell, G. Sun, H. Q. Tian, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1801-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
R. Valentini, A. Arneth, A. Bombelli, S. Castaldi, R. Cazzolla Gatti, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, E. Grieco, J. Hartmann, M. Henry, R. A. Houghton, M. Jung, W. L. Kutsch, Y. Malhi, E. Mayorga, L. Merbold, G. Murray-Tortarolo, D. Papale, P. Peylin, B. Poulter, P. A. Raymond, M. Santini, S. Sitch, G. Vaglio Laurin, G. R. van der Werf, C. A. Williams, and R. J. Scholes
Biogeosciences, 11, 381–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-381-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-381-2014, 2014
A. Schneider, T. Tanhua, W. Roether, and R. Steinfeldt
Ocean Sci., 10, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-1-2014, 2014
C. Cressot, F. Chevallier, P. Bousquet, C. Crevoisier, E. J. Dlugokencky, A. Fortems-Cheiney, C. Frankenberg, R. Parker, I. Pison, R. A. Scheepmaker, S. A. Montzka, P. B. Krummel, L. P. Steele, and R. L. Langenfelds
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 577–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-577-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-577-2014, 2014
V. M. C. Rérolle, M. Ribas-Ribas, V. Kitidis, I. Brown, D. C. E. Bakker, G. A. Lee, T. Shi, M. C. Mowlem, and E. P. Achterberg
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-943-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-943-2014, 2014
Preprint retracted
J. F. Chang, N. Viovy, N. Vuichard, P. Ciais, T. Wang, A. Cozic, R. Lardy, A.-I. Graux, K. Klumpp, R. Martin, and J.-F. Soussana
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2165–2181, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2165-2013, 2013
S. J. O'Shea, G. Allen, M. W. Gallagher, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, S. M. Illingworth, M. Le Breton, J. B. A. Muller, C. J. Percival, A. T. Archibald, D. E. Oram, M. Parrington, P. I. Palmer, and A. C. Lewis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 12451–12467, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12451-2013, 2013
B. Guenet, F. E. Moyano, N. Vuichard, G. J. D. Kirk, P. H. Bellamy, S. Zaehle, and P. Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2153–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2153-2013, 2013
F. Souty, B. Dorin, T. Brunelle, P. Dumas, and P. Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
D. N. Huntzinger, C. Schwalm, A. M. Michalak, K. Schaefer, A. W. King, Y. Wei, A. Jacobson, S. Liu, R. B. Cook, W. M. Post, G. Berthier, D. Hayes, M. Huang, A. Ito, H. Lei, C. Lu, J. Mao, C. H. Peng, S. Peng, B. Poulter, D. Riccuito, X. Shi, H. Tian, W. Wang, N. Zeng, F. Zhao, and Q. Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2121–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2121-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2121-2013, 2013
H. Tian, G. Chen, C. Lu, X. Xu, W. Ren, K. Banger, B. Zhang, B. Tao, S. Pan, M. Liu, and C. Zhang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-19811-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-19811-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
C. Yue, P. Ciais, S. Luyssaert, P. Cadule, J. Harden, J. Randerson, V. Bellassen, T. Wang, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, and N. Viovy
Biogeosciences, 10, 8233–8252, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8233-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8233-2013, 2013
R. Väänänen, E.-M. Kyrö, T. Nieminen, N. Kivekäs, H. Junninen, A. Virkkula, M. Dal Maso, H. Lihavainen, Y. Viisanen, B. Svenningsson, T. Holst, A. Arneth, P. P. Aalto, M. Kulmala, and V.-M. Kerminen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11887–11903, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11887-2013, 2013
Y. Song, A. K. Jain, and G. F. McIsaac
Biogeosciences, 10, 8039–8066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8039-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8039-2013, 2013
E. Joetzjer, H. Douville, C. Delire, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, and S. Tyteca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4885–4895, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4885-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4885-2013, 2013
P. Landschützer, N. Gruber, D. C. E. Bakker, U. Schuster, S. Nakaoka, M. R. Payne, T. P. Sasse, and J. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 10, 7793–7815, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7793-2013, 2013
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, and N. Gruber
Biogeosciences, 10, 7373–7393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7373-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7373-2013, 2013
C. Ottlé, J. Lescure, F. Maignan, B. Poulter, T. Wang, and N. Delbart
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 331–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-331-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-331-2013, 2013
V. V. S. S. Sarma, A. Lenton, R. M. Law, N. Metzl, P. K. Patra, S. Doney, I. D. Lima, E. Dlugokencky, M. Ramonet, and V. Valsala
Biogeosciences, 10, 7035–7052, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7035-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7035-2013, 2013
P. C. Stoy, M. C. Dietze, A. D. Richardson, R. Vargas, A. G. Barr, R. S. Anderson, M. A. Arain, I. T. Baker, T. A. Black, J. M. Chen, R. B. Cook, C. M. Gough, R. F. Grant, D. Y. Hollinger, R. C. Izaurralde, C. J. Kucharik, P. Lafleur, B. E. Law, S. Liu, E. Lokupitiya, Y. Luo, J. W. Munger, C. Peng, B. Poulter, D. T. Price, D. M. Ricciuto, W. J. Riley, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, C. R. Schwalm, H. Tian, H. Verbeeck, and E. Weng
Biogeosciences, 10, 6893–6909, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6893-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6893-2013, 2013
M. Vogt, T. Hashioka, M. R. Payne, E. T. Buitenhuis, C. Le Quéré, S. Alvain, M. N. Aita, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, T. Hirata, I. Lima, S. Sailley, and Y. Yamanaka
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-17193-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-17193-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
T. Hashioka, M. Vogt, Y. Yamanaka, C. Le Quéré, E. T. Buitenhuis, M. N. Aita, S. Alvain, L. Bopp, T. Hirata, I. Lima, S. Sailley, and S. C. Doney
Biogeosciences, 10, 6833–6850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6833-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6833-2013, 2013
D. Lombardozzi, J. P. Sparks, and G. Bonan
Biogeosciences, 10, 6815–6831, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6815-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6815-2013, 2013
C. E. Yver-Kwok, D. Müller, C. Caldow, B. Lebegue, J. G. Mønster, C. W. Rella, C. Scheutz, M. Schmidt, M. Ramonet, T. Warneke, G. Broquet, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-6-9181-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-6-9181-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
P. Peylin, R. M. Law, K. R. Gurney, F. Chevallier, A. R. Jacobson, T. Maki, Y. Niwa, P. K. Patra, W. Peters, P. J. Rayner, C. Rödenbeck, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, and X. Zhang
Biogeosciences, 10, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6699-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6699-2013, 2013
N. Unger, K. Harper, Y. Zheng, N. Y. Kiang, I. Aleinov, A. Arneth, G. Schurgers, C. Amelynck, A. Goldstein, A. Guenther, B. Heinesch, C. N. Hewitt, T. Karl, Q. Laffineur, B. Langford, K. A. McKinney, P. Misztal, M. Potosnak, J. Rinne, S. Pressley, N. Schoon, and D. Serça
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10243–10269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10243-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10243-2013, 2013
D. Griffin, K. A. Walker, J. E. Franklin, M. Parrington, C. Whaley, J. Hopper, J. R. Drummond, P. I. Palmer, K. Strong, T. J. Duck, I. Abboud, P. F. Bernath, C. Clerbaux, P.-F. Coheur, K. R. Curry, L. Dan, E. Hyer, J. Kliever, G. Lesins, M. Maurice, A. Saha, K. Tereszchuk, and D. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10227–10241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10227-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10227-2013, 2013
B. Badawy, C. Rödenbeck, M. Reichstein, N. Carvalhais, and M. Heimann
Biogeosciences, 10, 6485–6508, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6485-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6485-2013, 2013
R. Locatelli, P. Bousquet, F. Chevallier, A. Fortems-Cheney, S. Szopa, M. Saunois, A. Agusti-Panareda, D. Bergmann, H. Bian, P. Cameron-Smith, M. P. Chipperfield, E. Gloor, S. Houweling, S. R. Kawa, M. Krol, P. K. Patra, R. G. Prinn, M. Rigby, R. Saito, and C. Wilson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9917–9937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9917-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9917-2013, 2013
L. Bopp, L. Resplandy, J. C. Orr, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, M. Gehlen, P. Halloran, C. Heinze, T. Ilyina, R. Séférian, J. Tjiputra, and M. Vichi
Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013
B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3707–3720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, 2013
S. Nakaoka, M. Telszewski, Y. Nojiri, S. Yasunaka, C. Miyazaki, H. Mukai, and N. Usui
Biogeosciences, 10, 6093–6106, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6093-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6093-2013, 2013
E. V. Berezin, I. B. Konovalov, P. Ciais, A. Richter, S. Tao, G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Beekmann, and E.-D. Schulze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9415–9438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9415-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9415-2013, 2013
G. Broquet, F. Chevallier, F.-M. Bréon, N. Kadygrov, M. Alemanno, F. Apadula, S. Hammer, L. Haszpra, F. Meinhardt, J. A. Morguí, J. Necki, S. Piacentino, M. Ramonet, M. Schmidt, R. L. Thompson, A. T. Vermeulen, C. Yver, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9039–9056, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9039-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9039-2013, 2013
F. Ziska, B. Quack, K. Abrahamsson, S. D. Archer, E. Atlas, T. Bell, J. H. Butler, L. J. Carpenter, C. E. Jones, N. R. P. Harris, H. Hepach, K. G. Heumann, C. Hughes, J. Kuss, K. Krüger, P. Liss, R. M. Moore, A. Orlikowska, S. Raimund, C. E. Reeves, W. Reifenhäuser, A. D. Robinson, C. Schall, T. Tanhua, S. Tegtmeier, S. Turner, L. Wang, D. Wallace, J. Williams, H. Yamamoto, S. Yvon-Lewis, and Y. Yokouchi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8915–8934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8915-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8915-2013, 2013
T. Tanhua, D. Hainbucher, K. Schroeder, V. Cardin, M. Álvarez, and G. Civitarese
Ocean Sci., 9, 789–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-789-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-789-2013, 2013
A. Schmittner, N. Gruber, A. C. Mix, R. M. Key, A. Tagliabue, and T. K. Westberry
Biogeosciences, 10, 5793–5816, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5793-2013, 2013
A. M. Waite, V. Rossi, M. Roughan, B. Tilbrook, P. A. Thompson, M. Feng, A. S. J. Wyatt, and E. J. Raes
Biogeosciences, 10, 5691–5702, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5691-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5691-2013, 2013
D. J. L. Olivié and G. P. Peters
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 267–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-267-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-267-2013, 2013
F. Deng, J. M. Chen, Y. Pan, W. Peters, R. Birdsey, K. McCullough, and J. Xiao
Biogeosciences, 10, 5335–5348, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5335-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5335-2013, 2013
N. R. Bates, M. I. Orchowska, R. Garley, and J. T. Mathis
Biogeosciences, 10, 5281–5309, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5281-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5281-2013, 2013
M. Parrington, P. I. Palmer, A. C. Lewis, J. D. Lee, A. R. Rickard, P. Di Carlo, J. W. Taylor, J. R. Hopkins, S. Punjabi, D. E. Oram, G. Forster, E. Aruffo, S. J. Moller, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, J. D. Allan, H. Coe, and R. J. Leigh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7321–7341, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7321-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7321-2013, 2013
T. Tanhua, D. Hainbucher, V. Cardin, M. Álvarez, G. Civitarese, A. P. McNichol, and R. M. Key
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 289–294, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-289-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-289-2013, 2013
M. D. Gibson, J. R. Pierce, D. Waugh, J. S. Kuchta, L. Chisholm, T. J. Duck, J. T. Hopper, S. Beauchamp, G. H. King, J. E. Franklin, W. R. Leaitch, A. J. Wheeler, Z. Li, G. A. Gagnon, and P. I. Palmer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7199–7213, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7199-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7199-2013, 2013
A. Berchet, I. Pison, F. Chevallier, P. Bousquet, S. Conil, M. Geever, T. Laurila, J. Lavrič, M. Lopez, J. Moncrieff, J. Necki, M. Ramonet, M. Schmidt, M. Steinbacher, and J. Tarniewicz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7115–7132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7115-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7115-2013, 2013
T. Fischer, D. Banyte, P. Brandt, M. Dengler, G. Krahmann, T. Tanhua, and M. Visbeck
Biogeosciences, 10, 5079–5093, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5079-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5079-2013, 2013
M. Roland, P. Serrano-Ortiz, A. S. Kowalski, Y. Goddéris, E. P. Sánchez-Cañete, P. Ciais, F. Domingo, S. Cuezva, S. Sanchez-Moral, B. Longdoz, D. Yakir, R. Van Grieken, J. Schott, C. Cardell, and I. A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 10, 5009–5017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5009-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5009-2013, 2013
K. R. N. Anthony, G. Diaz-Pulido, N. Verlinden, B. Tilbrook, and A. J. Andersson
Biogeosciences, 10, 4897–4909, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4897-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4897-2013, 2013
M. K. Kajos, H. Hakola, T. Holst, T. Nieminen, V. Tarvainen, T. Maximov, T. Petäjä, A. Arneth, and J. Rinne
Biogeosciences, 10, 4705–4719, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4705-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4705-2013, 2013
C. J. O'Brien, J. A. Peloquin, M. Vogt, M. Heinle, N. Gruber, P. Ajani, H. Andruleit, J. Arístegui, L. Beaufort, M. Estrada, D. Karentz, E. Kopczyńska, R. Lee, A. J. Poulton, T. Pritchard, and C. Widdicombe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 259–276, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-259-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-259-2013, 2013
N. Huneeus, O. Boucher, and F. Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6555–6573, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6555-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6555-2013, 2013
P. I. Palmer, M. Parrington, J. D. Lee, A. C. Lewis, A. R. Rickard, P. F. Bernath, T. J. Duck, D. L. Waugh, D. W. Tarasick, S. Andrews, E. Aruffo, L. J. Bailey, E. Barrett, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, K. R. Curry, P. Di Carlo, L. Chisholm, L. Dan, G. Forster, J. E. Franklin, M. D. Gibson, D. Griffin, D. Helmig, J. R. Hopkins, J. T. Hopper, M. E. Jenkin, D. Kindred, J. Kliever, M. Le Breton, S. Matthiesen, M. Maurice, S. Moller, D. P. Moore, D. E. Oram, S. J. O'Shea, R. C. Owen, C. M. L. S. Pagniello, S. Pawson, C. J. Percival, J. R. Pierce, S. Punjabi, R. M. Purvis, J. J. Remedios, K. M. Rotermund, K. M. Sakamoto, A. M. da Silva, K. B. Strawbridge, K. Strong, J. Taylor, R. Trigwell, K. A. Tereszchuk, K. A. Walker, D. Weaver, C. Whaley, and J. C. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6239–6261, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6239-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6239-2013, 2013
H. Kaeriyama, D. Ambe, Y. Shimizu, K. Fujimoto, T. Ono, S. Yonezaki, Y. Kato, H. Matsunaga, H. Minami, S. Nakatsuka, and T. Watanabe
Biogeosciences, 10, 4287–4295, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4287-2013, 2013
D. Dalmonech and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 4189–4210, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4189-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4189-2013, 2013
A. Lenton, B. Tilbrook, R. M. Law, D. Bakker, S. C. Doney, N. Gruber, M. Ishii, M. Hoppema, N. S. Lovenduski, R. J. Matear, B. I. McNeil, N. Metzl, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, P. M. S. Monteiro, C. Rödenbeck, C. Sweeney, and T. Takahashi
Biogeosciences, 10, 4037–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4037-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4037-2013, 2013
A. Fraser, P. I. Palmer, L. Feng, H. Boesch, A. Cogan, R. Parker, E. J. Dlugokencky, P. J. Fraser, P. B. Krummel, R. L. Langenfelds, S. O'Doherty, R. G. Prinn, L. P. Steele, M. van der Schoot, and R. F. Weiss
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5697–5713, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5697-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5697-2013, 2013
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B. Aamaas, G. P. Peters, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 145–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-145-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-145-2013, 2013
C. J. Hardacre, P. I. Palmer, K. Baumanns, M. Rounsevell, and D. Murray-Rust
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5451–5472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5451-2013, 2013
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5189–5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5189-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5189-2013, 2013
K. Tsuboi, H. Matsueda, Y. Sawa, Y. Niwa, M. Nakamura, D. Kuboike, K. Saito, H. Ohmori, S. Iwatsubo, H. Nishi, Y. Hanamiya, K. Tsuji, and Y. Baba
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R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
C. Le Quéré, R. J. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, G. Marland, G. P. Peters, G. R. van der Werf, A. Ahlström, R. M. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, C. Jourdain, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S. Sitch, B. D. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
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M. Krol, W. Peters, P. Hooghiemstra, M. George, C. Clerbaux, D. Hurtmans, D. McInerney, F. Sedano, P. Bergamaschi, M. El Hajj, J. W. Kaiser, D. Fisher, V. Yershov, and J.-P. Muller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4737–4747, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4737-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4737-2013, 2013
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voss, and A. J. Wiltshire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013
P. R. Oke, D. A. Griffin, A. Schiller, R. J. Matear, R. Fiedler, J. Mansbridge, A. Lenton, M. Cahill, M. A. Chamberlain, and K. Ridgway
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Biogeosciences, 10, 2711–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013, 2013
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S. Khatiwala, T. Tanhua, S. Mikaloff Fletcher, M. Gerber, S. C. Doney, H. D. Graven, N. Gruber, G. A. McKinley, A. Murata, A. F. Ríos, and C. L. Sabine
Biogeosciences, 10, 2169–2191, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2169-2013, 2013
M. Ménégoz, G. Krinner, Y. Balkanski, A. Cozic, O. Boucher, and P. Ciais
The Cryosphere, 7, 537–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-537-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-537-2013, 2013
V. Haverd, M. R. Raupach, P. R. Briggs, J. G. Canadell, P. Isaac, C. Pickett-Heaps, S. H. Roxburgh, E. van Gorsel, R. A. Viscarra Rossel, and Z. Wang
Biogeosciences, 10, 2011–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2011-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2011-2013, 2013
J. Peloquin, C. Swan, N. Gruber, M. Vogt, H. Claustre, J. Ras, J. Uitz, R. Barlow, M. Behrenfeld, R. Bidigare, H. Dierssen, G. Ditullio, E. Fernandez, C. Gallienne, S. Gibb, R. Goericke, L. Harding, E. Head, P. Holligan, S. Hooker, D. Karl, M. Landry, R. Letelier, C. A. Llewellyn, M. Lomas, M. Lucas, A. Mannino, J.-C. Marty, B. G. Mitchell, F. Muller-Karger, N. Nelson, C. O'Brien, B. Prezelin, D. Repeta, W. O. Jr. Smith, D. Smythe-Wright, R. Stumpf, A. Subramaniam, K. Suzuki, C. Trees, M. Vernet, N. Wasmund, and S. Wright
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 109–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-109-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-109-2013, 2013
R. Wanninkhof, G. -H. Park, T. Takahashi, C. Sweeney, R. Feely, Y. Nojiri, N. Gruber, S. C. Doney, G. A. McKinley, A. Lenton, C. Le Quéré, C. Heinze, J. Schwinger, H. Graven, and S. Khatiwala
Biogeosciences, 10, 1983–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
O. D. Andrews, N. L. Bindoff, P. R. Halloran, T. Ilyina, and C. Le Quéré
Biogeosciences, 10, 1799–1813, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
J. P. Boisier, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, and P. Ciais
Biogeosciences, 10, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1501-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1501-2013, 2013
J. F. Tjiputra, C. Roelandt, M. Bentsen, D. M. Lawrence, T. Lorentzen, J. Schwinger, Ø. Seland, and C. Heinze
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 301–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-301-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-301-2013, 2013
C. Rödenbeck, R. F. Keeling, D. C. E. Bakker, N. Metzl, A. Olsen, C. Sabine, and M. Heimann
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J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
D. A. Belikov, S. Maksyutov, M. Krol, A. Fraser, M. Rigby, H. Bian, A. Agusti-Panareda, D. Bergmann, P. Bousquet, P. Cameron-Smith, M. P. Chipperfield, A. Fortems-Cheiney, E. Gloor, K. Haynes, P. Hess, S. Houweling, S. R. Kawa, R. M. Law, Z. Loh, L. Meng, P. I. Palmer, P. K. Patra, R. G. Prinn, R. Saito, and C. Wilson
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Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013
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Biogeosciences, 10, 607–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-607-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-607-2013, 2013
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AQ-Bench: a benchmark dataset for machine learning on global air quality metrics
Bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated seasonal forecasts: a long-term reference forecast product for the water sector in semi-arid regions
The consolidated European synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2017
The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2018
A new merged dataset for analyzing clouds, precipitation and atmospheric parameters based on ERA5 reanalysis data and the measurements of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar and visible and infrared scanner
A new satellite-derived dataset for marine aquaculture areas in China's coastal region
Database of petrophysical properties of the Mid-German Crystalline Rise
Landsat-derived bathymetry of lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska
Merging ground-based sunshine duration observations with satellite cloud and aerosol retrievals to produce high-resolution long-term surface solar radiation over China
Hyperspectral-reflectance dataset of dry, wet and submerged marine litter
A climate service for ecologists: sharing pre-processed EURO-CORDEX regional climate scenario data using the eLTER Information System
Crowdsourced air traffic data from the OpenSky Network 2019–2020
A restructured and updated global soil respiration database (SRDB-V5)
The Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature Record
Dielectric database of organic Arctic soils (DDOAS)
A global long-term (1981–2000) land surface temperature product for NOAA AVHRR
A coastally improved global dataset of wet tropospheric corrections for satellite altimetry
Development of a standard database of reference sites for validating global burned area products
Xinxin Wang, Xiangming Xiao, Yuanwei Qin, Jinwei Dong, Jihua Wu, and Bo Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3757–3771, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3757-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3757-2022, 2022
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We generated China’s surface water bodies, Large Dams, Reservoirs, and Lakes (China-LDRL) dataset by analyzing all available Landsat imagery in 2019 (19\,338 images) in Google Earth Engine. The dataset provides accurate information on the geographical locations and sizes of surface water bodies, large dams, reservoirs, and lakes in China. The China-LDRL dataset will contribute to the understanding of water security and water resources management in China.
Jie Chen, Qi Yao, Ziyue Chen, Manchun Li, Zhaozhan Hao, Cheng Liu, Wei Zheng, Miaoqing Xu, Xiao Chen, Jing Yang, Qiancheng Lv, and Bingbo Gao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3489–3508, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3489-2022, 2022
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The potential degradation of mainstream global fire products leads to large uncertainty in the effective monitoring of wildfires and their influence. To fill this gap, we produced a Fengyun-3D (FY-3D) global active fire product with a similar spatial and temporal resolution to MODIS fire products, aiming to serve as continuity and a replacement for MODIS fire products. The FY-3D fire product is an ideal tool for global fire monitoring and can be preferably employed for fire monitoring in China.
Yijie Sui, Min Feng, Chunling Wang, and Xin Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3349–3363, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3349-2022, 2022
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High-latitude water bodies differ greatly in their morphological and topological characteristics related to their formation, type, and vulnerability. In this paper, we present a water body dataset for the North American high latitudes (WBD-NAHL). Nearly 6.5 million water bodies were identified, with approximately 6 million (~90 %) of them smaller than 0.1 km2.
Amy McNally, Jossy Jacob, Kristi Arsenault, Kimberly Slinski, Daniel P. Sarmiento, Andrew Hoell, Shahriar Pervez, James Rowland, Mike Budde, Sujay Kumar, Christa Peters-Lidard, and James P. Verdin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3115–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3115-2022, 2022
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The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) global and Central Asia data streams described here generate routine estimates of snow, soil moisture, runoff, and other variables useful for tracking water availability. These data are hosted by NASA and USGS data portals for public use.
Thomas R. Etherington, George L. W. Perry, and Janet M. Wilmshurst
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2817–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2817-2022, 2022
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Long time series of temperature and rainfall grids are fundamental to understanding how these variables affects environmental or ecological patterns and processes. We present a History of Open Temperature and Rainfall with Uncertainty in New Zealand (HOTRUNZ) that is an open-access dataset that provides monthly 1 km resolution grids of rainfall and mean, minimum, and maximum daily temperatures with associated uncertainties for New Zealand from 1910 to 2019.
Philipp Richter, Mathias Palm, Christine Weinzierl, Hannes Griesche, Penny M. Rowe, and Justus Notholt
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2767–2784, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2767-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2767-2022, 2022
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We present a dataset of cloud optical depths, effective radii and water paths from optically thin clouds observed in the Arctic around Svalbard. The data have been retrieved from infrared spectral radiance measured using a Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer. Besides a description of the measurements and retrieval technique, the data are put into context with results of corresponding measurements from microwave radiometer, lidar and cloud radar.
Jianglei Xu, Shunlin Liang, and Bo Jiang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2315–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2315-2022, 2022
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Land surface all-wave net radiation (Rn) is a key parameter in many land processes. Current products have drawbacks of coarse resolutions, large uncertainty, and short time spans. A deep learning method was used to obtain global surface Rn. A long-term Rn product was generated from 1981 to 2019 using AVHRR data. The product has the highest accuracy and a reasonable spatiotemporal variation compared to three other products. Our product will play an important role in long-term climate change.
Verónica González-Gambau, Estrella Olmedo, Antonio Turiel, Cristina González-Haro, Aina García-Espriu, Justino Martínez, Pekka Alenius, Laura Tuomi, Rafael Catany, Manuel Arias, Carolina Gabarró, Nina Hoareau, Marta Umbert, Roberto Sabia, and Diego Fernández
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2343–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2343-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2343-2022, 2022
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We present the first Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) dedicated products over the Baltic Sea (ESA Baltic+ Salinity Dynamics). The Baltic+ L3 product covers 9 days in a 0.25° grid. The Baltic+ L4 is derived by merging L3 SSS with sea surface temperature information, giving a daily product in a 0.05° grid. The accuracy of L3 is 0.7–0.8 and 0.4 psu for the L4. Baltic+ products have shown to be useful, covering spatiotemporal data gaps and for validating numerical models.
Chunlüe Zhou, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Erik Engström, Lorenzo Minola, Lennart Wern, Sverker Hellström, Jessika Lönn, and Deliang Chen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2167–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2167-2022, 2022
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To fill the key gap of short availability and inhomogeneity of wind speed (WS) in Sweden, we rescued the early paper records of WS since 1925 and built the first 10-member centennial homogenized WS dataset (HomogWS-se) for community use. An initial WS stilling and recovery before the 1990s was observed, and a strong link with North Atlantic Oscillation was found. HomogWS-se improves our knowledge of uncertainty and causes of historical WS changes.
Wenjun Tang, Jun Qin, Kun Yang, Yaozhi Jiang, and Weihao Pan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2007–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2007-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2007-2022, 2022
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Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) is a fundamental physiological variable for research in the ecological, agricultural, and global change fields. In this study, we produced a 35-year high-resolution global gridded PAR dataset. Compared with the well-known global satellite-based PAR product of the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), our PAR product was found to be a more accurate dataset with higher resolution.
Wenbin Sun, Yang Yang, Liya Chao, Wenjie Dong, Boyin Huang, Phil Jones, and Qingxiang Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1677–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1677-2022, 2022
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The new China global Merged Surface Temperature CMST 2.0 is the updated version of CMST-Interim used in the IPCC's AR6. The updated dataset is described in this study, containing three versions: CMST2.0 – Nrec, CMST2.0 – Imax, and CMST2.0 – Imin. The reconstructed datasets significantly improve data coverage, especially in the high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, thus increasing the long-term trends at global, hemispheric, and regional scales since 1850.
Rohaifa Khaldi, Domingo Alcaraz-Segura, Emilio Guirado, Yassir Benhammou, Abdellatif El Afia, Francisco Herrera, and Siham Tabik
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1377–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1377-2022, 2022
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This dataset with millions of 22-year time series for seven spectral bands was built by merging Terra and Aqua satellite data and annotated for 29 LULC classes by spatial–temporal agreement across 15 global LULC products. The mean F1 score was 96 % at the coarsest classification level and 87 % at the finest one. The dataset is born to develop and evaluate machine learning models to perform global LULC mapping given the disagreement between current global LULC products.
Chuanmin Hu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1183–1192, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1183-2022, 2022
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Using data collected by the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) between 2010–2014, hyperspectral reflectance of various floating matters in global oceans and lakes is derived for the spectral range of 400–800 nm. Such reflectance spectra are expected to provide spectral endmembers to differentiate and quantify the floating matters from existing multi-band satellite sensors and future hyperspectral satellite missions such as NASA’s PACE, SBG, and GLIMR missions.
Tobias K. D. Weber, Joachim Ingwersen, Petra Högy, Arne Poyda, Hans-Dieter Wizemann, Michael Scott Demyan, Kristina Bohm, Ravshan Eshonkulov, Sebastian Gayler, Pascal Kremer, Moritz Laub, Yvonne Funkiun Nkwain, Christian Troost, Irene Witte, Tim Reichenau, Thomas Berger, Georg Cadisch, Torsten Müller, Andreas Fangmeier, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Thilo Streck
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1153–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1153-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1153-2022, 2022
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Presented are measurement results from six agricultural fields operated by local farmers in southwestern Germany over 9 years. Six eddy-covariance stations measuring water, energy, and carbon fluxes between the vegetated soil surface and the atmosphere provided the backbone of the measurement sites and were supplemented by extensive soil and vegetation state monitoring. The dataset is ideal for testing process models characterizing fluxes at the vegetated soil surface and in the atmosphere.
Runmei Ma, Jie Ban, Qing Wang, Yayi Zhang, Yang Yang, Shenshen Li, Wenjiao Shi, Zhen Zhou, Jiawei Zang, and Tiantian Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 943–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-943-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-943-2022, 2022
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We constructed multi-variable random forest models based on 10-fold cross-validation and estimated daily PM2.5 and O3 concentration of China in 2005–2017 at a resolution of 1 km. The daily R2 values of PM2.5 and O3 were 0.85 and 0.77. The meteorological variables can significantly affect both PM2.5 and O3 modeling. During 2005–2017, PM2.5 exhibited an overall downward trend, while O3 experienced the opposite. The temporal trend of PM2.5 and O3 had spatial characteristics during the study period.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Hong-Yi Li, Zhenduo Zhu, Zeli Tan, and L. Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 929–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-929-2022, 2022
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Existing riverbed sediment particle size data are sparsely available at individual sites. We develop a continuous map of median riverbed sediment particle size over the contiguous US corresponding to millions of river segments based on the existing observations and machine learning methods. This map is useful for research in large-scale river sediment using model- and data-driven approaches, teaching environmental and earth system sciences, planning and managing floodplain zones, etc.
Anna M. Ukkola, Gab Abramowitz, and Martin G. De Kauwe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 449–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-449-2022, 2022
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Flux towers provide measurements of water, energy, and carbon fluxes. Flux tower data are invaluable in improving and evaluating land models but are not suited to modelling applications as published. Here we present flux tower data tailored for land modelling, encompassing 170 sites globally. Our dataset resolves several key limitations hindering the use of flux tower data in land modelling, including incomplete forcing variable, data format, and low data quality.
Hui Tao, Kaishan Song, Ge Liu, Qiang Wang, Zhidan Wen, Pierre-Andre Jacinthe, Xiaofeng Xu, Jia Du, Yingxin Shang, Sijia Li, Zongming Wang, Lili Lyu, Junbin Hou, Xiang Wang, Dong Liu, Kun Shi, Baohua Zhang, and Hongtao Duan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 79–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-79-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-79-2022, 2022
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During 1984–2018, lakes in the Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau had the clearest water (mean 3.32 ± 0.38 m), while those in the northeastern region had the lowest Secchi disk depth (SDD) (mean 0.60 ± 0.09 m). Among the 10 814 lakes with > 10 years of SDD results, 55.4 % and 3.5 % experienced significantly increasing and decreasing trends of SDD, respectively. With the exception of Inner Mongolia–Xinjiang, more than half of lakes in all the other regions exhibited a significant trend of increasing SDD.
Jiao Lu, Guojie Wang, Tiexi Chen, Shijie Li, Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan, Giri Kattel, Jian Peng, Tong Jiang, and Buda Su
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5879–5898, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5879-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5879-2021, 2021
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This study has combined three existing land evaporation (ET) products to obtain a single framework of a long-term (1980–2017) daily ET product at a spatial resolution of 0.25° to define the global proxy ET with lower uncertainties. The merged product is the best at capturing dynamics over different locations and times among all data sets. The merged product performed well over a range of vegetation cover scenarios and also captured the trend of land evaporation over different areas well.
Kytt MacManus, Deborah Balk, Hasim Engin, Gordon McGranahan, and Rya Inman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5747–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5747-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5747-2021, 2021
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New estimates of population and land area by settlement types within low-elevation coastal zones (LECZs) based on four sources of population data, four sources of settlement data and four sources of elevation data for the years 1990, 2000 and 2015. The paper describes the sensitivity of these estimates and discusses the fitness of use guiding user decisions. Data choices impact the number of people estimated within LECZs, but across all sources the LECZs are predominantly urban and growing.
Yanhua Xie, Holly K. Gibbs, and Tyler J. Lark
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5689–5710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5689-2021, 2021
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We created 30 m resolution annual irrigation maps covering the conterminous US for the period of 1997–2017, together with derivative products and ground reference data. The products have several improvements over other data, including field-level details of change and frequency, an annual time step, a collection of ~ 10 000 ground reference locations for the eastern US, and improved mapping accuracy of over 90 %, especially in the east compared to others of 50 % to 80 %.
Holger Virro, Giuseppe Amatulli, Alexander Kmoch, Longzhu Shen, and Evelyn Uuemaa
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5483–5507, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5483-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5483-2021, 2021
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Water quality modeling is essential for understanding and mitigating water quality deterioration in river networks due to agricultural and industrial pollution. Improving the availability and usability of open data is vital to support global water quality modeling efforts. The GRQA extends the spatial and temporal coverage of previously available water quality data and provides a reproducible workflow for combining multi-source water quality datasets.
Bowen Cao, Le Yu, Xuecao Li, Min Chen, Xia Li, Pengyu Hao, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5403–5421, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5403-2021, 2021
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In the study, the first 1 km global cropland proportion dataset for 10 000 BCE–2100 CE was produced through the harmonization and downscaling framework. The mapping result coincides well with widely used datasets at present. With improved spatial resolution, our maps can better capture the cropland distribution details and spatial heterogeneity. The dataset will be valuable for long-term simulations and precise analyses. The framework can be extended to specific regions or other land use types.
Diyang Cui, Shunlin Liang, Dongdong Wang, and Zheng Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5087–5114, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5087-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5087-2021, 2021
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Large portions of the Earth's surface are expected to experience changes in climatic conditions. The rearrangement of climate distributions can lead to serious impacts on ecological and social systems. Major climate zones are distributed in a predictable pattern and are largely defined following the Köppen climate classification. This creates an urgent need to compile a series of Köppen climate classification maps with finer spatial and temporal resolutions and improved accuracy.
Amanda R. Fay, Luke Gregor, Peter Landschützer, Galen A. McKinley, Nicolas Gruber, Marion Gehlen, Yosuke Iida, Goulven G. Laruelle, Christian Rödenbeck, Alizée Roobaert, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4693–4710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, 2021
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The movement of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the ocean is estimated using surface ocean carbon (pCO2) measurements and an equation including variables such as temperature and wind speed; the choices of these variables lead to uncertainties. We introduce the SeaFlux ensemble which provides carbon flux maps calculated in a consistent manner, thus reducing uncertainty by using common choices for wind speed and a set definition of "global" coverage.
Samuel J. Tomlinson, Edward J. Carnell, Anthony J. Dore, and Ulrike Dragosits
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4677–4692, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4677-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4677-2021, 2021
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Nitrogen (N) may impact the environment in many ways, and estimation of its deposition to the terrestrial surface is of interest. N deposition data have not been generated at a high resolution (1 km × 1 km) over a long time series in the UK before now. This study concludes that N deposition has reduced by ~ 40 % from 1990. The impact of these results allows analysis of environmental impacts at a high spatial and temporal resolution, using a consistent methodology and consistent set of input data.
Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Emanuel Dutra, Anna Agustí-Panareda, Clément Albergel, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Margarita Choulga, Shaun Harrigan, Hans Hersbach, Brecht Martens, Diego G. Miralles, María Piles, Nemesio J. Rodríguez-Fernández, Ervin Zsoter, Carlo Buontempo, and Jean-Noël Thépaut
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4349–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, 2021
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The creation of ERA5-Land responds to a growing number of applications requiring global land datasets at a resolution higher than traditionally reached. ERA5-Land provides operational, global, and hourly key variables of the water and energy cycles over land surfaces, at 9 km resolution, from 1981 until the present. This work provides evidence of an overall improvement of the water cycle compared to previous reanalyses, whereas the energy cycle variables perform as well as those of ERA5.
Yan Chen, Shunlin Liang, Han Ma, Bing Li, Tao He, and Qian Wang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4241–4261, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4241-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4241-2021, 2021
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This study used remotely sensed and assimilated data to estimate all-sky land surface air temperature (Ta) using a machine learning method, and developed an all-sky 1 km daily mean land Ta product for 2003–2019 over mainland China. Validation results demonstrated that this dataset has achieved satisfactory accuracy and high spatial resolution simultaneously, which fills the current dataset gap in this field and plays an important role in studies of climate change and the hydrological cycle.
Guoqing Zhang, Youhua Ran, Wei Wan, Wei Luo, Wenfeng Chen, Fenglin Xu, and Xin Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3951–3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3951-2021, 2021
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Lakes can be effective indicators of climate change, especially over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Here, we provide the most comprehensive lake mapping covering the past 100 years. The new features of this data set are (1) its temporal length, providing the longest period of lake observations from maps, (2) the data set provides a state-of-the-art lake inventory for the Landsat era (from the 1970s to 2020), and (3) it provides the densest lake observations for lakes with areas larger than 1 km2.
Jie Yang and Xin Huang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3907–3925, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3907-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3907-2021, 2021
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We produce the 30 m annual China land cover dataset (CLCD), with an accuracy reaching 79.31 %. Trends and patterns of land cover changes during 1985 and 2019 were revealed, such as expansion of impervious surface (+148.71 %) and water (+18.39 %), decrease in cropland (−4.85 %) and increase in forest (+4.34 %). The CLCD generally reflected the rapid urbanization and a series of ecological projects in China and revealed the anthropogenic implications on LC under the condition of climate change.
Richard Porter-Smith, John McKinlay, Alexander D. Fraser, and Robert A. Massom
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3103–3114, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3103-2021, 2021
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This study quantifies the characteristic complexity
signaturesaround the Antarctic outer coastal margin, giving a multiscale estimate of the magnitude and direction of undulation or complexity at each point location along the entire coastline. It has numerous applications for both geophysical and biological studies and will contribute to Antarctic research requiring quantitative information about this important interface.
Gonçalo Vieira, Carla Mora, Pedro Pina, Ricardo Ramalho, and Rui Fernandes
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3179–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3179-2021, 2021
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Fogo in Cabo Verde is one of the most active ocean island volcanoes on Earth, posing important hazards to local populations and at a regional level. The last eruption occurred from November 2014 to February 2015. A survey of the Chã das Caldeiras area was conducted using a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle. A point cloud, digital surface model and orthomosaic with 10 and 25 cm resolutions are provided, together with the full aerial survey projects and datasets.
Clara Betancourt, Timo Stomberg, Ribana Roscher, Martin G. Schultz, and Scarlet Stadtler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3013–3033, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3013-2021, 2021
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With the AQ-Bench dataset, we contribute to shared data usage and machine learning methods in the field of environmental science. The AQ-Bench dataset contains air quality data and metadata from more than 5500 air quality observation stations all over the world. The dataset offers a low-threshold entrance to machine learning on a real-world environmental dataset. AQ-Bench thus provides a blueprint for environmental benchmark datasets.
Christof Lorenz, Tanja C. Portele, Patrick Laux, and Harald Kunstmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2701–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2701-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2701-2021, 2021
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Semi-arid regions depend on the freshwater resources from the rainy seasons as they are crucial for ensuring security for drinking water, food and electricity. Thus, forecasting the conditions for the next season is crucial for proactive water management. We hence present a seasonal forecast product for four semi-arid domains in Iran, Brazil, Sudan/Ethiopia and Ecuador/Peru. It provides a benchmark for seasonal forecasts and, finally, a crucial contribution for improved disaster preparedness.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Matthew J. McGrath, Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Francesco N. Tubiello, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Pongratz, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, Matthias Kuhnert, Juraj Balkovič, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Hugo A. C. Denier van der
Gon, Efisio Solazzo, Chunjing Qiu, Roberto Pilli, Igor B. Konovalov, Richard A. Houghton, Dirk Günther, Lucia Perugini, Monica Crippa, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Pete Smith, Saqr Munassar, Rona L. Thompson, Giulia Conchedda, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2363–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CO2 fossil emissions and CO2 land fluxes in the EU27+UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with ecosystem data, land carbon models and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling CO2 estimates with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Lilu Sun and Yunfei Fu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2293–2306, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2293-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2293-2021, 2021
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Multi-source dataset use is hampered by use of different spatial and temporal resolutions. We merged Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation radar and visible and infrared scanner measurements with ERA5 reanalysis. The statistical results indicate this process has no unacceptable influence on the original data. The merged dataset can help in studying characteristics of and changes in cloud and precipitation systems and provides an opportunity for data analysis and model simulations.
Yongyong Fu, Jinsong Deng, Hongquan Wang, Alexis Comber, Wu Yang, Wenqiang Wu, Shixue You, Yi Lin, and Ke Wang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1829–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1829-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1829-2021, 2021
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Marine aquaculture areas in a region up to 30 km from the coast in China were mapped for the first time. It was found to cover a total area of ~1100 km2, of which more than 85 % is marine plant culture areas, with 87 % found in four coastal provinces. The results confirm the applicability and effectiveness of deep learning when applied to GF-1 data at the national scale, identifying the detailed spatial distributions and supporting the sustainable management of coastal resources in China.
Sebastian Weinert, Kristian Bär, and Ingo Sass
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1441–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1441-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1441-2021, 2021
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Physical rock properties are a key element for resource exploration, the interpretation of results from geophysical methods or the parameterization of physical or geological models. Despite the need for physical rock properties, data are still very scarce and often not available for the area of interest. The database presented aims to provide easy access to physical rock properties measured at 224 locations in Bavaria, Hessen, Rhineland-Palatinate and Thuringia (Germany).
Claire E. Simpson, Christopher D. Arp, Yongwei Sheng, Mark L. Carroll, Benjamin M. Jones, and Laurence C. Smith
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1135–1150, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1135-2021, 2021
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Sonar depth point measurements collected at 17 lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska are used to train and validate models to map lake bathymetry. These models predict depth from remotely sensed lake color and are able to explain 58.5–97.6 % of depth variability. To calculate water volumes, we integrate this modeled bathymetry with lake surface area. Knowledge of Alaskan lake bathymetries and volumes is crucial to better understanding water storage, energy balance, and ecological habitat.
Fei Feng and Kaicun Wang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 907–922, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-907-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-907-2021, 2021
Els Knaeps, Sindy Sterckx, Gert Strackx, Johan Mijnendonckx, Mehrdad Moshtaghi, Shungudzemwoyo P. Garaba, and Dieter Meire
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 713–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-713-2021, 2021
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This paper describes a dataset consisting of 47 hyperspectral-reflectance measurements of plastic litter samples. The plastic litter samples include virgin and real samples. They were measured in dry conditions, and a selection of the samples were also measured in wet conditions and submerged in a water tank. The dataset can be used to better understand the effect of water absorption on the plastics and develop algorithms to detect and characterize marine plastics.
Susannah Rennie, Klaus Goergen, Christoph Wohner, Sander Apweiler, Johannes Peterseil, and John Watkins
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 631–644, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-631-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-631-2021, 2021
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This paper describes a pan-European climate service data product intended for ecological researchers. Access to regional climate scenario data will save ecologists time, and, for many, it will allow them to work with data resources that they will not previously have used due to a lack of knowledge and skills to access them. Providing easy access to climate scenario data in this way enhances long-term ecological research, for example in general regional climate change or impact assessments.
Martin Strohmeier, Xavier Olive, Jannis Lübbe, Matthias Schäfer, and Vincent Lenders
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 357–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-357-2021, 2021
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Flight data have been used widely for research by academic researchers and (supra)national institutions. Example domains range from epidemiology (e.g. examining the spread of COVID-19 via air travel) to economics (e.g. use as proxy for immediate forecasting of the state of a country's economy) and Earth sciences (climatology in particular). Until now, accurate flight data have been available only in small pieces from closed, proprietary sources. This work changes this with a crowdsourced effort.
Jinshi Jian, Rodrigo Vargas, Kristina Anderson-Teixeira, Emma Stell, Valentine Herrmann, Mercedes Horn, Nazar Kholod, Jason Manzon, Rebecca Marchesi, Darlin Paredes, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 255–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-255-2021, 2021
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Field soil-to-atmosphere CO2 flux (soil respiration, Rs) observations were compiled into a global database (SRDB) a decade ago. Here, we restructured and updated the database to the fifth version, SRDB-V5, with data published through 2017 included. SRDB-V5 aims to be a data framework for the scientific community to share seasonal to annual field Rs measurements, and it provides opportunities for the scientific community to better understand the spatial and temporal variability of Rs.
Robert A. Rohde and Zeke Hausfather
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3469–3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3469-2020, 2020
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A global land and ocean temperature record was created by combining the Berkeley Earth monthly land temperature field with a newly interpolated version of the HadSST3 ocean dataset. The resulting dataset covers the period from 1850 to present.
This paper describes the methods used to create that combination and compares the results to other estimates of global temperature and the associated recent climate change, giving similar results.
Igor Savin, Valery Mironov, Konstantin Muzalevskiy, Sergey Fomin, Andrey Karavayskiy, Zdenek Ruzicka, and Yuriy Lukin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3481–3487, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3481-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3481-2020, 2020
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This article presents a dielectric database of organic Arctic soils. This database was created based on dielectric measurements of seven samples of organic soils collected in various parts of the Arctic tundra. The created database can serve not only as a source of experimental data for the development of new soil dielectric models for the Arctic tundra but also as a source of training data for artificial intelligence satellite algorithms of soil moisture retrievals based on neural networks.
Jin Ma, Ji Zhou, Frank-Michael Göttsche, Shunlin Liang, Shaofei Wang, and Mingsong Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3247–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3247-2020, 2020
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Land surface temperature is an important parameter in the research of climate change and many land surface processes. This article describes the development and testing of an algorithm for generating a consistent global long-term land surface temperature product from 20 years of NOAA AVHRR radiance data. The preliminary validation results indicate good accuracy of this new long-term product, which has been designed to simplify applications and support the scientific research community.
Clara Lázaro, Maria Joana Fernandes, Telmo Vieira, and Eliana Vieira
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3205–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3205-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3205-2020, 2020
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In satellite altimetry (SA), the wet tropospheric correction (WTC) accounts for the path delay induced mainly by atmospheric water vapour. In coastal regions, the accuracy of the WTC determined by the on-board radiometer deteriorates. The GPD+ methodology, developed by the University of Porto in the remit of ESA-funded projects, computes improved WTCs for SA. Global enhanced products are generated for all past and operational altimetric missions, forming a relevant dataset for coastal altimetry.
Magí Franquesa, Melanie K. Vanderhoof, Dimitris Stavrakoudis, Ioannis Z. Gitas, Ekhi Roteta, Marc Padilla, and Emilio Chuvieco
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3229–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3229-2020, 2020
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The article presents a database of reference sites for the validation of burned area products. We have compiled 2661 reference files from different international projects. The paper describes the methods used to generate and standardize the data. The Burned Area Reference Data (BARD) is publicly available and will facilitate the arduous task of validating burned area algorithms.
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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the...
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