Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Data description paper
| 
10 Mar 2023
Data description paper |
| 10 Mar 2023
| 10 Mar 2023
Harmonising the land-use flux estimates of global models and national inventories for 2000–2020
Giacomo Grassi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Clemens Schwingshackl
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
Thomas Gasser
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria
Richard A. Houghton
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
Stephen Sitch
Department of Geography, College of Life and Environmental
Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Josep G. Canadell
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Alessandro Cescatti
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement CEA, CNRS,
UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Sandro Federici
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Japan
Pierre Friedlingstein
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences,
University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/Institut
Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, Ecole Normale, Paris, France
Werner A. Kurz
Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria,
British Columbia, Canada
Maria J. Sanz Sanchez
Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Sede Building, 1, 1st
floor, Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940,
Leioa, Spain
Ikerbasque, Basque Science Foundation, María Díaz Haroko
Kalea, 3, 48013, Bilbao, Spain
Raúl Abad Viñas
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Ramdane Alkama
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Selma Bultan
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
Guido Ceccherini
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Stefanie Falk
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
Etsushi Kato
Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
Daniel Kennedy
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Jürgen Knauer
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney
University, Penrith, NSW, Australia
Anu Korosuo
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Joana Melo
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Matthew J. McGrath
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement CEA, CNRS,
UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Julia E. M. S. Nabel
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Benjamin Poulter
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory,
Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Anna A. Romanovskaya
Yu. A. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Glebovskaya
20B, Moscow 107258, Russia
Simone Rossi
Arcadia SIT, contracted to Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Hanqin Tian
Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and
Society, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College,
Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USA
Anthony P. Walker
Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science
Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
Wenping Yuan
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai,
China
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing
University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, 210044,
China
Julia Pongratz
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
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Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Matthew J. McGrath, Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Francesco N. Tubiello, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Pongratz, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, Matthias Kuhnert, Juraj Balkovič, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Hugo A. C. Denier van der
Gon, Efisio Solazzo, Chunjing Qiu, Roberto Pilli, Igor B. Konovalov, Richard A. Houghton, Dirk Günther, Lucia Perugini, Monica Crippa, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Pete Smith, Saqr Munassar, Rona L. Thompson, Giulia Conchedda, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
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Francesco N. Tubiello, Giulia Conchedda, Nathan Wanner, Sandro Federici, Simone Rossi, and Giacomo Grassi
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Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Philippe Ciais, Francesco N. Tubiello, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Adrian Leip, Gema Carmona-Garcia, Wilfried Winiwarter, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Dirk Günther, Efisio Solazzo, Anja Kiesow, Ana Bastos, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Giulia Conchedda, Roberto Pilli, Robbie M. Andrew, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, and Albertus J. Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 961–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, 2020
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up GHG anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the EU28. The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models, aiming at reconciling GHG budgets with official country-level UNFCCC inventories. We provide comprehensive emission assessments in support to policy, facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Roberto Pilli, Giacomo Grassi, Werner A. Kurz, Giulia Fiorese, and Alessandro Cescatti
Biogeosciences, 14, 2387–2405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2387-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2387-2017, 2017
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We modeled, for 26 European countries, the C budget and fluxes of the main forest pools from 2000 to 2030 under different management scenarios. Our findings show an incipient aging process for the existing forests, but specific conditions, such as the harvest rate and the current age structure, may have different impacts on the country-specific evolution of biomass stock. This provides a useful framework for more detailed analyses of the mitigation potential of the forest sector.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
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The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin G. De Kauwe, Samuel Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig R. Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
Biogeosciences, 21, 5517–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, 2024
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This paper evaluates land models – computer-based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics; land carbon, water, and energy cycles; and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning and AI approaches to show that, despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
Bettina K. Gier, Manuel Schlund, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Sönke Zaehle, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 21, 5321–5360, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024, 2024
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This study investigates present-day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better but also show many remaining biases. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with a nitrogen cycle is found, with only small differences between emission- and concentration-based simulations. Thus, we recommend using emission-driven simulations in CMIP7 by default and including the nitrogen cycle in all future carbon cycle models.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3522, 2024
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We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from CMIP6 Earth System Models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, particularly in nitrogen, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Sabine Egerer, Stefanie Falk, Dorothea Mayer, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 21, 5005–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024, 2024
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Using a state-of-the-art land model, we find that bioenergy plants can store carbon more efficiently than forests over long periods in the soil, in geological reservoirs, or by substituting fossil-fuel-based energy. Planting forests is more suitable for reaching climate targets by 2050. The carbon removal potential depends also on local environmental conditions. These considerations have important implications for climate policy, spatial planning, nature conservation, and agriculture.
Ling Kang, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, and Ye Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3470, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Climate change over 2010–2045 under carbon neutrality scenario is simulated to increase ozone levels in China in the model of Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0. Future climate change increases summertime MDA8 O3 levels by 2.3, 4.7, and 3.0 ppbv in eastern China, North China Plain, and Yangtze River Delta, respectively. Temperature, radiation, and RH are the key meteorological parameters and net chemical production is the key process for climate-driven ozone increases in eastern China.
Flossie Brown, Gerd Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Paulo Artaxo, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Matteo Detto, Ninong Komala, Luciana Rizzo, Nestor Rojas, Ines dos Santos Vieira, Steven Turnock, Hans Verbeeck, and Alfonso Zambrano
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12537–12555, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12537-2024, 2024
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Ozone is a pollutant that is detrimental to human and plant health. Ozone monitoring sites in the tropics are limited, so models are often used to understand ozone exposure. We use measurements from the tropics to evaluate ozone from the UK Earth system model, UKESM1. UKESM1 is able to capture the pattern of ozone in the tropics, except in southeast Asia, although it systematically overestimates it at all sites. This work highlights that UKESM1 can capture seasonal and hourly variability.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Guillaume Marie, Jina Jeong, Hervé Jactel, Gunnar Petter, Maxime Cailleret, Matthew J. McGrath, Vladislav Bastrikov, Josefine Ghattas, Bertrand Guenet, Anne Sofie Lansø, Kim Naudts, Aude Valade, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8023–8047, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, 2024
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This research looks at how climate change influences forests, and particularly how altered wind and insect activities could make forests emit instead of absorb carbon. We have updated a land surface model called ORCHIDEE to better examine the effect of bark beetles on forest health. Our findings suggest that sudden events, such as insect outbreaks, can dramatically affect carbon storage, offering crucial insights into tackling climate change.
Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Maria Carolina Duran-Rojas, Thais Michele Rosan, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Louise P. Chini, and George C. Hurtt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3165, 2024
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Indonesia is 3 world's highest carbon emitter from land use change. However, there are uncertainties of the carbon emission of Indonesia that can be reduced with satellite-based datasets. But later, we found that the uncertainties are also caused by the difference of carbon pool in various models. Our best estimation of carbon emissions from land use change in Indonesia is 0.12 ± 0.02 PgC/yr with steady trend. This double when include peat fire and peat drainage emissions.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Alexandre Héraud, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Theodoros Christoudias, Jonilda Kushta, and Jean Sciare
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-410, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-410, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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In this study, we estimate emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in 2022 at high-resolution at the global scale, using satellite observations. We provide maps of the emissions and identify several types of sources. Our results are similar to the EDGAR emission inventory. However, differences are found in countries with lower observation densities and lower emissions.
Olivier Bouriaud, Ernst-Detlef Schulze, Konstantin Gregor, Issam Bourkhris, Peter Högberg, Roland Irslinger, Phillip Papastefanou, Julia Pongratz, Anja Rammig, Riccardo Valentini, and Christian Körner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3092, 2024
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The impact of harvesting on forests' carbon sink capacities is debated. One view is that their sink strength is resilient to harvesting, the other that it disrupts these capacities. Our work shows that leaf area index (LAI) has been overlooked in this discussion. We found that temperate forests' carbon uptake is largely insensitive to variations in LAI beyond about 4 m² m-², but that forests operate at higher levels.
Yonghang Hu, Chenguang Tian, Xu Yue, Yadong Lei, Yang Cao, Rongbin Xu, and Yuming Guo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-414, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-414, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We develop a global dataset of daily fire-sourced PM2.5 concentration at a spatial resolution of 0.25° for 2000–2023, using a chemical transport model driven with two fire emission inventories and a machine learning approach trained with ground measurements from over 9000 sites. The dataset shows significant spatiotemporal variations of fire PM2.5 in the past decades, serving a useful tool for exploring the impacts of fire-related air pollutants on climate, ecosystems, and public health.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Juliette Bernard, Catherine Prigent, Carlos Jimenez, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Bernhard Lehner, Elodie Salmon, Philippe Ciais, Zhen Zhang, Shushi Peng, and Marielle Saunois
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-466, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-466, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Wetlands are responsible for about a third of global emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. We have developed the GIEMS-MethaneCentric (GIEMS-MC) dataset to represent the dynamics of wetland extent on a global scale (0.25°x0.25° resolution, monthly time step). This updated resource combines satellite data and existing wetland databases, covering 1992 to 2020. Consistent maps of other methane-emitting surface waters (lakes, rivers, reservoirs, rice paddies) are also provided.
David A. Gibbs, Melissa Rose, Giacomo Grassi, Joana Melo, Simone Rossi, Viola Heinrich, and Nancy L. Harris
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-397, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-397, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Updated global maps of greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration by forests from 2001 onwards using satellite-derived data show that forests are strong net carbon sinks, capturing about as much CO2 each year on average as the United States emits from fossil fuels. After reclassifying fluxes to countries’ reporting categories for national greenhouse gas inventories, we found that roughly two-thirds of the total net flux from forests is anthropogenic and one-third is non-anthropogenic.
Jinghui Lian, Olivier Laurent, Mali Chariot, Luc Lienhardt, Michel Ramonet, Hervé Utard, Thomas Lauvaux, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Karina Cucchi, Laurent Millair, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5821–5839, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5821-2024, 2024
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We have designed and deployed a mid-cost medium-precision CO2 sensor monitoring network in Paris since July 2020. The data are automatically calibrated by a newly implemented data processing system. The accuracies of the mid-cost instruments vary from 1.0 to 2.4 ppm for hourly afternoon measurements. Our model–data analyses highlight prospects for integrating mid-cost instrument data with high-precision measurements to improve fine-scale CO2 emission quantification in urban areas.
Zhengyang Lin, Ling Huang, Hanqin Tian, Anping Chen, and Xuhui Wang
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-170, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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Wildfires release large amounts of greenhouse gases, contributing to global warming. We developed a new model that provides near-real-time estimates of wildfire emissions in China. Our model improves the accuracy of burned area measurements and incorporates advanced data in fuel loads and emission factors. We found that most emissions come from agricultural fires, while emissions from forests and grasslands are decreasing. This model will help reduce the environmental impacts of wildfires.
Yufen Wang, Ke Li, Xi Chen, Zhenjiang Yang, Minglong Tang, Pascoal M. D. Campos, Yang Yang, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2576, 2024
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The impact of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions on high tropospheric ozone was not well studied in Southern Africa. We combined the model simulation with recent observations at the surface and from space to quantify tropospheric ozone and its main drivers in Southern Africa. Our work focuses on the impact of emissions from different sources at different spatial scales, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of air pollution drivers and their uncertainties in Southern Africa.
Josselin Doc, Michel Ramonet, François-Marie Bréon, Delphine Combaz, Mali Chariot, Morgan Lopez, Marc Delmotte, Cristelle Cailteau-Fischbach, Guillaume Nief, Nathanaël Laporte, Thomas Lauvaux, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2826, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Description of the network for measuring greenhouse gas concentrations in the Paris region and analysis of eight years of continuous monitoring.
Thi Lan Anh Dinh, Daniel Goll, Philippe Ciais, and Ronny Lauerwald
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6725–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024, 2024
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The study assesses the performance of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) ORCHIDEE in capturing the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks across Europe. Comparisons with observations reveal that the model accurately represents carbon fluxes and stocks. Despite the underestimations in certain land-use conversions, the model describes general trends in soil carbon response to land-use change, aligning with the site observations.
Xinyi Zhou, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian, and Xiaofei Lu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9923–9937, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9923-2024, 2024
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With a climate–vegetation–chemistry coupled model, we explore global climatic responses to the ozone–vegetation interactions of the present day. We find strong warming and drying effects due to the ozone-induced inhibition on plant stomatal conductance, especially over polluted regions such as the eastern US and China. These climatic perturbations further enhance surface ozone by decreasing dry deposition but reduce aerosol optical depth by increasing cloudiness and the drought tendency.
Minna Ma, Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-29, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD
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A new model (ORCHIDEE-NLAT) was developed to estimate lateral nitrogen (N) transport from land to oceans through rivers at daily step. The model includes transport of water and N, as well as the decomposition of dissolved organic N and particulate organic, and denitrification of dissolved inorganic N. Model evaluations indicate that ORCHIDEE-NLAT reproduce observed rates and seasonal variations of water discharge and total N flow well.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, 2024
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Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the CMIP6-LUMIP project. We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.20 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasise the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Fang Li, Zhimin Zhou, Samuel Levis, Stephen Sitch, Felicity Hayes, Zhaozhong Feng, Peter B. Reich, Zhiyi Zhao, and Yanqing Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6173–6193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6173-2024, 2024
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A new scheme is developed to model the surface ozone damage to vegetation in regional and global process-based models. Based on 4210 data points from ozone experiments, it accurately reproduces statistically significant linear or nonlinear photosynthetic and stomatal responses to ozone in observations for all vegetation types. It also enables models to implicitly capture the variability in plant ozone tolerance and the shift among species within a vegetation type.
Mathew Williams, David T. Milodowski, Thomas Luke Smallman, Kyle G. Dexter, Gabi C. Hegerl, Iain M. McNicol, Michael O'Sullivan, Carla M. Roesch, Casey M. Ryan, Stephen Sitch, and Aude Valade
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2497, 2024
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Southern African woodlands are important in both regional and global carbon cycles. A new carbon analysis created by combining satellite data with ecosystem modelling shows that the region has a neutral C balance overall, but with important spatial variations. Patterns of biomass and C balance across the region are the outcome of climate controls on production, vegetation-fire interactions, which determine mortality of vegetation, and spatial variations in vegetation function.
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2387, 2024
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Land-cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) can alter climate even in intact areas, causing carbon changes in remote areas. This study is the first to assess these effects, finding they substantially alter global carbon dynamics, changing terrestrial stocks by up to dozens of gigatons. These results are vital for scientific and policy assessments, given the expected role of LCLMCs in achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming below 1.5 °C.
Bernhard Lehner, Mira Anand, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Florence Tan, Filipe Aires, George H. Allen, Pilippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Nick Davidson, C. Max Finlayson, Thomas Gumbricht, Lammert Hilarides, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Maartje C. Korver, Peter B. McIntyre, Szabolcs Nagy, David Olefeldt, Tamlin M. Pavelsky, Jean-Francois Pekel, Benjamin Poulter, Catherine Prigent, Jida Wang, Thomas A. Worthington, Dai Yamazaki, and Michele Thieme
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-204, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD) version 2 distinguishes a total of 33 non-overlapping wetland classes, providing a static map of the world’s inland surface waters. It contains cell fractions of wetland extents per class at a grid cell resolution of ~500 m. The total combined extent of all classes including all inland and coastal waterbodies and wetlands of all inundation frequencies—that is, the maximum extent—covers 18.2 million km2, equivalent to 13.4 % of total global land area.
Rodrigo Rivera-Martinez, Pramod Kumar, Olivier Laurent, Gregoire Broquet, Christopher Caldow, Ford Cropley, Diego Santaren, Adil Shah, Cécile Mallet, Michel Ramonet, Leonard Rivier, Catherine Juery, Olivier Duclaux, Caroline Bouchet, Elisa Allegrini, Hervé Utard, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4257–4290, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4257-2024, 2024
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We explore the use of metal oxide semiconductors (MOSs) as a low-cost alternative for detecting and measuring CH4 emissions from industrial facilities. MOSs were exposed to several controlled releases to test their accuracy in detecting and quantifying emissions. Two reconstruction models were compared, and emission estimates were computed using a Gaussian dispersion model. Findings show that MOSs can provide accurate emission estimates with a 25 % emission rate error and a 9.5 m location error.
Chuanlong Zhou, Biqing Zhu, Antoine Halff, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Simon Bowring, Simon Ben Arous, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-173, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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After Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe's energy dynamics shifted significantly. Our study introduces updated datasets tracking changes in natural gas supply, usage, and transmission within the EU27&UK. We discovered that Europe adapted to losing Russian gas by increasing LNG imports and shifting to renewables. Our insights could shape future energy policies and climate research.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Liting Hu, Adrien Martinez, Marielle Saunois, Rona L. Thompson, Kushal Tibrewal, Wouter Peters, Brendan Byrne, Giacomo Grassi, Paul I. Palmer, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Xuekun Fang, Tengjiao Wang, Hanqin Tian, Katsumasa Tanaka, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin Poulter, Clément Albergel, Aki Tsuruta, Shamil Maksyutov, Rajesh Janardanan, Yosuke Niwa, Bo Zheng, Joël Thanwerdas, Dmitry Belikov, Arjo Segers, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-103, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-103, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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This study reconciles national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories with updated atmospheric inversion results to evaluate discrepancies for three main GHG fluxes at the national level. Compared to the previous study, new satellite-based CO2 inversions were included. Additionally, an updated mask of managed lands was used, improving agreement for Brazil and Canada. The proposed methodology can be regularly applied as a check to assess the gap between top-down inversions and bottom-up inventories.
Mengjie Han, Qing Zhao, Xili Wang, Ying-Ping Wang, Philippe Ciais, Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Zhe Zhao, Zhixuan Guo, Chen Wang, Wei Zhuang, Fengchang Wu, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4871–4890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024, 2024
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The impact of biochar (BC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is not represented in most land carbon models used for assessing land-based climate change mitigation. Our study develops a BC model that incorporates our current understanding of BC effects on SOC based on a soil carbon model (MIMICS). The BC model can reproduce the SOC changes after adding BC, providing a useful tool to couple dynamic land models to evaluate the effectiveness of BC application for CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
Yi Xi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4727–4754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024, 2024
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The ORCHIDEE-MICT model can simulate the carbon cycle and hydrology at a sub-grid scale but energy budgets only at a grid scale. This paper assessed the implementation of a multi-tiling energy budget approach in ORCHIDEE-MICT and found warmer surface and soil temperatures, higher soil moisture, and more soil organic carbon across the Northern Hemisphere compared with the original version.
Yitong Yao, Philippe Ciais, Emilie Joetzjer, Wei Li, Lei Zhu, Yujie Wang, Christian Frankenberg, and Nicolas Viovy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 763–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-763-2024, 2024
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Elevated CO2 concentration (eCO2) is critical for shaping the future path of forest carbon uptake, while uncertainties remain about concurrent carbon loss. Here, we found that eCO2 might amplify competition-induced carbon loss, while the extent of drought-induced carbon loss hinges on the balance between heightened biomass density and water-saving benefits. This is the first time that such carbon loss responses to ongoing climate change have been quantified separately over the Amazon rainforest.
Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yimian Ma, Yihan Hu, Cheng Gong, Hui Zheng, and Hong Liao
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4621–4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024
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We develop the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE). The model considers the full coupling between carbon and water cycles, dynamic fire emissions, wetland methane emissions, biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, and trait-based ozone vegetation damage. Evaluations show that iMAPLE is a useful tool for the study of the interactions among climate, chemistry, and ecosystems.
Rebecca M. Varney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 21, 2759–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, 2024
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Soil carbon is the largest store of carbon on the land surface of Earth and is known to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Understanding this future response is vital to successfully meeting Paris Agreement targets, which rely heavily on carbon uptake by the land surface. In this study, the individual responses of soil carbon are quantified and compared amongst CMIP6 Earth system models used within the most recent IPCC report, and the role of soils in the land response is highlighted.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Xi Yi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584, 2024
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This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 per year in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Joseph G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihito Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joel Thanwerdas, Hanquin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido van der Werf, Doug E. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesize and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progresses in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
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This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Nikola Besic, Nicolas Picard, Cédric Vega, Lionel Hertzog, Jean-Pierre Renaud, Fajwel Fogel, Agnès Pellissier-Tanon, Gabriel Destouet, Milena Planells-Rodriguez, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-95, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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The creation of advanced mapping models for forest attributes, utilizing remote sensing data and incorporating machine or deep learning methods, has become a key area of interest in the domain of forest observation and monitoring. This paper introduces a method where we blend and collectively interpret five models dedicated to estimating forest canopy height. We achieve this through Bayesian model averaging, offering a comprehensive approach to height estimation in forest ecosystems.
Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata, and Olivier Boucher
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1553, 2024
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Reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases helps limit global warming alongside CO2 reduction. We compared the effects using an Earth System Model. We show that the carbon cycle feedback differ between CO2 and non-CO2 gases, with the presence or absence of CO2 change in the atmosphere influencing their effects. The study underscores the need to consider interactions between CO2 and non-CO2 impacts on the carbon cycle in climate models and emission reduction strategies.
Daju Wang, Peiyang Ren, Xiaosheng Xia, Lei Fan, Zhangcai Qin, Xiuzhi Chen, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2465–2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2465-2024, 2024
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This study generated a high-precision dataset, locating forest harvested carbon and quantifying post-harvest wood emissions for various uses. It enhances our understanding of forest harvesting and post-harvest carbon dynamics in China, providing essential data for estimating the forest ecosystem carbon budget and emphasizing wood utilization's impact on carbon emissions.
Juliette Bernard, Marielle Saunois, Elodie Salmon, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Antoine Berchet, Penélope Serrano-Ortiz, Palingamoorthy Gnanamoorthy, and Joachim Jansen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1331, 2024
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Despite their importance, uncertainties remain in estimating methane emissions from wetlands. Here, a simplified model that operates at a global scale is developed. Taking advantage of advances in remote sensing data and in situ observations, the model effectively reproduces the spatial and temporal patterns of emissions, albeit with limitations in the tropics due to data scarcity. This model, while simple, can provide valuable insights for sensitivity analyses.
David Gampe, Clemens Schwingshackl, Andrea Böhnisch, Magdalena Mittermeier, Marit Sandstad, and Raul R. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 589–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024, 2024
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Using a special suite of climate simulations, we determine if and when climate change is detectable and translate this to the global warming prevalent in the corresponding year. Our results show that, at 1.5°C warming, >85 % of the global population (>95 % at 2.0° warming) is already exposed to nighttime temperatures altered by climate change beyond natural variability. Furthermore, even incremental changes in global warming levels result in increased human exposure to emerged climate signals.
Nanhong Xie, Tijian Wang, Xiaodong Xie, Xu Yue, Filippo Giorgi, Qian Zhang, Danyang Ma, Rong Song, Beiyao Xu, Shu Li, Bingliang Zhuang, Mengmeng Li, Min Xie, Natalya Andreeva Kilifarska, Georgi Gadzhev, and Reneta Dimitrova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3259–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3259-2024, 2024
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For the first time, we coupled a regional climate chemistry model, RegCM-Chem, with a dynamic vegetation model, YIBs, to create a regional climate–chemistry–ecology model, RegCM-Chem–YIBs. We applied it to simulate climatic, chemical, and ecological parameters in East Asia and fully validated it on a variety of observational data. Results show that RegCM-Chem–YIBs model is a valuable tool for studying the terrestrial carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change on a regional scale.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Biogeosciences, 21, 1923–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024, 2024
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We study the timescale dependence of airborne fraction and underlying feedbacks by a theory of the climate–carbon system. Using simulations we show the predictive power of this theory and find that (1) this fraction generally decreases for increasing timescales and (2) at all timescales the total feedback is negative and the model spread in a single feedback causes the spread in the airborne fraction. Our study indicates that those are properties of the system, independently of the scenario.
Léna Gurriaran, Yannig Goude, Katsumasa Tanaka, Biqing Zhu, Zhu Deng, Xuanren Song, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2663–2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2663-2024, 2024
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We developed a data-driven model simulating daily regional power demand based on climate and socioeconomic variables. Our model was applied to eight countries or regions (Australia, Brazil, China, EU, India, Russia, South Africa, US), identifying influential factors and their relationship with power demand. Our findings highlight the significance of economic indicators in addition to temperature, showcasing country-specific variations. This research aids energy planning and emission reduction.
Jiachen Cao, Xu Yue, and Mingrui Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3973–3987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3973-2024, 2024
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We implemented two widely used ozone damage schemes into a same regional model. Although the two schemes yielded distinct ozone vegetation damages, they predicted similar feedbacks to surface air temperature and ozone air quality in China. Our results highlighted the significance of ozone pollution control given its detrimental impacts on ecosystem functions, contributions to global warming, and amplifications of ozone pollution through ozone–vegetation coupling.
Qing Ying, Benjamin Poulter, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Lori Bruhwiler, Youmi Oh, Brendan M. Rogers, Susan M. Natali, Hilary Sullivan, Luke D. Schiferl, Clayton Elder, Olli Peltola, Annett Bartsch, Amanda Armstrong, Ankur R. Desai, Eugénie Euskirchen, Mathias Göckede, Bernhard Lehner, Mats B. Nilsson, Matthias Peichl, Oliver Sonnentag, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Torsten Sachs, Aram Kalhori, Masahito Ueyama, and Zhen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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We present daily methane fluxes of northern wetlands at 10-km resolution during 2016–2022 (WetCH4) derived from a novel machine-learning framework with improved accuracy. We estimated an average annual CH4 emissions of 20.8 ±2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1. Emissions were intensified in 2016, 2020, and 2022, with the largest interannual variations coming from West Siberia. Continued, all-season tower observations and improved soil moisture products are needed for future improvement of CH4 upscaling.
Lingbo Li, Hong-Yi Li, Guta Abeshu, Jinyun Tang, L. Ruby Leung, Chang Liao, Zeli Tan, Hanqin Tian, Peter Thornton, and Xiaojuan Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-43, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We have developed a new map that reveals how organic carbon from soil leaches into headwater streams over the contiguous United States. We use advanced artificial intelligence techniques and a massive amount of data, including observations at over 2,500 gauges and a wealth of climate and environmental information. The map is a critical step in understanding and predicting how carbon moves through our environment, hence a useful tool for tackling climate challenges.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
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Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Zun Yin, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2141–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, 2024
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We show a new irrigation scheme included in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The new irrigation scheme restrains irrigation due to water shortage, includes water adduction, and represents environmental limits and facilities to access water, due to representing infrastructure in a simple way. Our results show that the new irrigation scheme helps simulate acceptable land surface conditions and fluxes in irrigated areas, even if there are difficulties due to shortcomings and limited information.
Pramod Kumar, Christopher Caldow, Grégoire Broquet, Adil Shah, Olivier Laurent, Camille Yver-Kwok, Sebastien Ars, Sara Defratyka, Susan Warao Gichuki, Luc Lienhardt, Mathis Lozano, Jean-Daniel Paris, Felix Vogel, Caroline Bouchet, Elisa Allegrini, Robert Kelly, Catherine Juery, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1229–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1229-2024, 2024
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This study presents a series of mobile measurement campaigns to monitor the CH4 emissions from an active landfill. These measurements are processed using a Gaussian plume model and atmospheric inversion techniques to quantify the landfill CH4 emissions. The methane emission estimates range between ~0.4 and ~7 t CH4 per day, and their variations are analyzed. The robustness of the estimates is assessed depending on the distance of the measurements from the potential sources in the landfill.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, 2024
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This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations. We successfully identified problems of global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues that should be solved in the latest generation of models, land use change CO2 emissions.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, Isla R. Simpson, and Daniel Kennedy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, 2024
Preprint archived
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This study investigates temporal characteristics and typical circulation conditions associated with onsets and terminations of soil moisture droughts in Europe. More understanding of drought onsets and terminations can aid in improving early predictions for devastating intense droughts.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
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Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Yang Yang, Yang Zhou, Hailong Wang, Mengyun Li, Huimin Li, Pinya Wang, Xu Yue, Ke Li, Jia Zhu, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1177–1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1177-2024, 2024
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This study reveals that extreme ozone pollution over the North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta is due to the chemical production related to hot and dry conditions, and the regional transport explains the ozone pollution over the Sichuan Basin and Pearl River Delta. The frequency of meteorological conditions of the extreme ozone pollution increases from the past to the future. The sustainable scenario is the optimal path to retaining clean air in China in the future.
Wolfgang Alexander Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Ana Bastos, Giulia Conchedda, Thomas Gasser, Giacomo Grassi, Richard A. Houghton, Francesco Nicola Tubiello, Stephen Sitch, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 605–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, 2024
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We provide and compare country-level estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes from a variety and large number of models, bottom-up estimates, and country reports for the period 1950–2021. Although net fluxes are small in many countries, they are often composed of large compensating emissions and removals. In many countries, the estimates agree well once their individual characteristics are accounted for, but in other countries, including some of the largest emitters, substantial uncertainties exist.
Ruben Urraca, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Nicolás Álamos, Lucas Berna-Peña, Monica Crippa, Sabine Darras, Stijn Dellaert, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Mark Dowell, Nadine Gobron, Claire Granier, Giacomo Grassi, Marc Guevara, Diego Guizzardi, Kevin Gurney, Nicolás Huneeus, Sekou Keita, Jeroen Kuenen, Ana Lopez-Noreña, Enrique Puliafito, Geoffrey Roest, Simone Rossi, Antonin Soulie, and Antoon Visschedijk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 501–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-501-2024, 2024
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CoCO2-MOSAIC 1.0 is a global mosaic of regional bottom-up inventories providing gridded (0.1×0.1) monthly emissions of anthropogenic CO2. Regional inventories include country-specific information and finer spatial resolution than global inventories. CoCO2-MOSAIC provides harmonized access to these datasets and can be considered as a regionally accepted reference to assess the quality of global inventories, as done in the current paper.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Mueller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, 2024
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Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in Northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions and up-scaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions and up-scaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Mounia Mostefaoui, Philippe Ciais, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Prabir K. Patra, and Yolandi Ernst
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 245–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-245-2024, 2024
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Our aim is to assess African anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals by using different data products, including inventories and process-based models, and to compare their relative merits with inversion data coming from satellites. We show a good match among the various estimates in terms of overall trends at a regional level and on a decadal basis, but large differences exist even among similar data types, which is a limit to the possibility of verification of country-reported data.
Gregory Duveiller, Mark Pickering, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Luca Caporaso, Souhail Boussetta, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Alessandro Cescatti
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7357–7373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7357-2023, 2023
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Some of our best tools to describe the state of the land system, including the intensity of heat waves, have a problem. The model currently assumes that the number of leaves in ecosystems always follows the same cycle. By using satellite observations of when leaves are present, we show that capturing the yearly changes in this cycle is important to avoid errors in estimating surface temperature. We show that this has strong implications for our capacity to describe heat waves across Europe.
Jan De Pue, Sebastian Wieneke, Ana Bastos, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Maral Maleki, Fabienne Maignan, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Ivan Janssens, and Manuela Balzarolo
Biogeosciences, 20, 4795–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, 2023
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The gross primary production (GPP) of the terrestrial biosphere is a key source of variability in the global carbon cycle. To estimate this flux, models can rely on remote sensing data (RS-driven), meteorological data (meteo-driven) or a combination of both (hybrid). An intercomparison of 11 models demonstrated that RS-driven models lack the sensitivity to short-term anomalies. Conversely, the simulation of soil moisture dynamics and stress response remains a challenge in meteo-driven models.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yangyang Fu, Xiuzhi Chen, Chaoqing Song, Xiaojuan Huang, Jie Dong, Qiongyan Peng, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-432, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-432, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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This study proposed the Winter-Triticeae Crops Index (WTCI)，which had great performance and stable spatiotemporal transferability in identifying winter-triticeae crops in 65 countries worldwide, with an overall accuracy of 87.7 %. The first global 30 m resolution distribution maps of winter-triticeae crops from 2017 to 2022 were further produced based on the WTCI method. The product can serve as an important basis for agricultural applications.
Lilian Vallet, Charbel Abdallah, Thomas Lauvaux, Lilian Joly, Michel Ramonet, Philippe Ciais, Morgan Lopez, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Florent Mouillot
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2421, 2023
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2022 fire season had a huge impact on European temperate forest, with several large fires exhibiting prolonged soil combustion reported. We analyzed CO and CO2 concentration recorded at nearby atmospheric towers, revealing intense smoldering combustion. We refined a fire emission model to incorporate this process. We estimated 7.95 MteqCO2 fire emission, twice the global estimate. Fires contributed to 1.97 % of the country's annual carbon footprint, reducing forest carbon sink by 30 % this year.
Zi Huang, Jiaoyue Wang, Longfei Bing, Yijiao Qiu, Rui Guo, Ying Yu, Mingjing Ma, Le Niu, Dan Tong, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep G. Canadell, Fengming Xi, and Zhu Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4947–4958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4947-2023, 2023
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This is about global and regional cement process carbon emissions and CO2 uptake calculations from 1930 to 2019. The global cement production is rising to 4.4 Gt, causing processing carbon emission of 1.81 Gt (95% CI: 1.75–1.88 Gt CO2) in 2021. Plus, in 2021, cement’s carbon accumulated uptake (22.9 Gt, 95% CI: 19.6–22.6 Gt CO2) has offset 55.2% of cement process CO2 emissions (41.5 Gt, 95% CI: 38.7–47.1 Gt CO2) since 1930.
Ioannis Cheliotis, Thomas Lauvaux, Jinghui Lian, Theodoros Christoudias, George Georgiou, Alba Badia, Frédéric Chevallier, Pramod Kumar, Yathin Kudupaje, Ruixue Lei, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2487, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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A consistent estimation of CO2 emissions is complicated due to the scarcity of CO2 observations. In this study, we showcase the potential to improve the CO2 emissions estimations from the NO2 concentrations based on the NO2-to-CO2 ratio, which should be constant for a source co-emitting NO2 and CO2, by comparing satellite observations with atmospheric chemistry and transport model simulations for NO2 and CO2. Furthermore, we demonstrate the significance of the chemistry in NO2 simulations.
Martin Schwartz, Philippe Ciais, Aurélien De Truchis, Jérôme Chave, Catherine Ottlé, Cedric Vega, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Manuel Nicolas, Sami Jouaber, Siyu Liu, Martin Brandt, and Ibrahim Fayad
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4927–4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, 2023
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As forests play a key role in climate-related issues, their accurate monitoring is critical to reduce global carbon emissions effectively. Based on open-access remote-sensing sensors, and artificial intelligence methods, we created high-resolution tree height, wood volume, and biomass maps of metropolitan France that outperform previous products. This study, based on freely available data, provides essential information to support climate-efficient forest management policies at a low cost.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Jonilda Kushta, Theodoros Christoudias, I. Safak Bayram, and Jean Sciare
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13565–13583, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13565-2023, 2023
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We use four years (2019–2022) of TROPOMI NO2 data to map NOx emissions in Qatar. We estimate average monthly emissions for the country and industrial facilities and derive an emission factor for the power sector. Monthly emissions have a weekly cycle reflecting the social norms in Qatar and an annual cycle consistent with the electricity production by gas-fired power plants. Their mean value is lower than the NOx emissions in global inventories but similar to the emissions reported for 2007.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
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Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Lilian Vallet, Martin Schwartz, Philippe Ciais, Dave van Wees, Aurelien de Truchis, and Florent Mouillot
Biogeosciences, 20, 3803–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3803-2023, 2023
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This study analyzes the ecological impact of the 2022 summer fire season in France by using high-resolution satellite data. The total biomass loss was 2.553 Mt, equivalent to a 17 % increase of the average natural mortality of all French forests. While Mediterranean forests had a lower biomass loss, there was a drastic increase in burned area and biomass loss over the Atlantic pine forests and temperate forests. This result revisits the distinctiveness of the 2022 fire season.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Almut Arneth, Stefanie Falk, Atul K. Jain, Fortunat Joos, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Naiqing Pan, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 767–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, 2023
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Nitrogen (N) is an essential limiting nutrient to terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. We evaluate N cycling in an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models. We find that variability in N processes across models is large. Models tended to overestimate C storage per unit N in vegetation and soil, which could have consequences for projecting the future terrestrial C sink. However, N cycling measurements are highly uncertain, and more are necessary to guide the development of N cycling in models.
Jinghui Lian, Thomas Lauvaux, Hervé Utard, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Laurent, Ivonne Albarus, Mali Chariot, Simone Kotthaus, Martial Haeffelin, Olivier Sanchez, Olivier Perrussel, Hugo Anne Denier van der Gon, Stijn Nicolaas Camiel Dellaert, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8823–8835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8823-2023, 2023
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This study quantifies urban CO2 emissions via an atmospheric inversion for the Paris metropolitan area over a 6-year period from 2016 to 2021. Results show a long-term decreasing trend of about 2 % ± 0.6 % per year in the annual CO2 emissions over Paris. We conclude that our current capacity can deliver near-real-time CO2 emission estimates at the city scale in under a month, and the results agree within 10 % with independent estimates from multiple city-scale inventories.
Ruoque Shen, Baihong Pan, Qiongyan Peng, Jie Dong, Xuebing Chen, Xi Zhang, Tao Ye, Jianxi Huang, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3203–3222, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3203-2023, 2023
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Paddy rice is the second-largest grain crop in China and plays an important role in ensuring global food security. This study developed a new rice-mapping method and produced distribution maps of single-season rice in 21 provincial administrative regions of China from 2017 to 2022 at a 10 or 20 m resolution. The accuracy was examined using 108 195 survey samples and county-level statistical data, and we found that the distribution maps have good accuracy.
Marc Guevara, Hervé Petetin, Oriol Jorba, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jeroen Kuenen, Ingrid Super, Claire Granier, Thierno Doumbia, Philippe Ciais, Zhu Liu, Robin D. Lamboll, Sabine Schindlbacher, Bradley Matthews, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8081–8101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8081-2023, 2023
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This study provides an intercomparison of European 2020 emission changes derived from official inventories, which are reported by countries under the framework of several international conventions and directives, and non-official near-real-time estimates, the use of which has significantly grown since the COVID-19 outbreak. The results of the work are used to produce recommendations on how best to approach and make use of near-real-time emissions for modelling and monitoring applications.
Yuan Zhao, Xu Yue, Yang Cao, Jun Zhu, Chenguang Tian, Hao Zhou, Yuwen Chen, Yihan Hu, Weijie Fu, and Xu Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7823–7838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023, 2023
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We project the future changes of dust emissions and loading using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 under four scenarios. We find increased dust emissions and loading in North Africa, due to increased drought and strengthened surface wind, and decreased dust loading over Asia, following enhanced precipitation. Such a spatial pattern remains similar, though the regional intensity varies among different scenarios.
Adil Shah, Olivier Laurent, Luc Lienhardt, Grégoire Broquet, Rodrigo Rivera Martinez, Elisa Allegrini, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3391–3419, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3391-2023, 2023
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As methane (CH4) contributes to global warming, more CH4 measurements are required to better characterise source emissions. Hence, we tested a cheap CH4 sensor for 338 d of landfill sampling. We derived an excellent CH4 response model in a stable environment. However, different types of air with the same CH4 level had diverse sensor responses. We characterised temperature and water vapour response but could not replicate field sampling. Thus, other species may cause sensor interactions.
Xueqin Yang, Xiuzhi Chen, Jiashun Ren, Wenping Yuan, Liyang Liu, Juxiu Liu, Dexiang Chen, Yihua Xiao, Qinghai Song, Yanjun Du, Shengbiao Wu, Lei Fan, Xiaoai Dai, Yunpeng Wang, and Yongxian Su
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2601–2622, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2601-2023, 2023
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We developed the first time-mapped, continental-scale gridded dataset of monthly leaf area index (LAI) in three leaf age cohorts (i.e., young, mature, and old) from 2001–2018 data (referred to as Lad-LAI). The seasonality of three LAI cohorts from the new Lad-LAI product agrees well at eight sites with very fine-scale collections of monthly LAI. The proposed satellite-based approaches can provide references for mapping finer spatiotemporal-resolution LAI products with different leaf age cohorts.
A. Elia, M. Pickering, M. Girardello, G. Oton, G. Ceccherini, S. Capobianco, M. Piccardo, G. Forzieri, M. Migliavacca, and A. Cescatti
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-W7-2023, 41–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W7-2023-41-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W7-2023-41-2023, 2023
Xiaojuan Lin, Ronald van der A, Jos de Laat, Henk Eskes, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Zhu Deng, Yuanhao Geng, Xuanren Song, Xiliang Ni, Da Huo, Xinyu Dou, and Zhu Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6599–6611, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6599-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6599-2023, 2023
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Satellite observations provide evidence for CO2 emission signals from isolated power plants. We use these satellite observations to quantify emissions. We found that for power plants with multiple observations, the correlation of estimated and reported emissions is significantly improved compared to a single observation case. This demonstrates that accurate estimation of power plant emissions can be achieved by monitoring from future satellite missions with more frequent observations.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
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This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Richard A. Houghton and Andrea Castanho
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2025–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2025-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2025-2023, 2023
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We update a previous analysis of carbon emissions (annual and national) from land use, land-use change, and forestry from 1850 to 2020. We use data from the latest (2020) Global Forest Resources Assessment, incorporate shifting cultivation, and include improvements to the bookkeeping model and recent estimates of emissions from peatlands. Net global emissions declined steadily over the decade from 2011 to 2020 (mean of 0.96 Pg C yr−1), falling below 1.0 Pg C yr−1 for the first time in 30 years.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
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Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Yuchan Chen, Xiuzhi Chen, Meimei Xue, Chuanxun Yang, Wei Zheng, Jun Cao, Wenting Yan, and Wenping Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1929–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1929-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1929-2023, 2023
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This study addresses the quantification and estimation of the watershed-characteristic-related parameter (Pw) in the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups. The results show that Pw is closely related to soil moisture and fractional vegetation cover, and the relationship varies across specific hydrologic similarity groups. The overall satisfactory performance of the Pw estimation model improves the applicability of the Budyko framework for global runoff estimation.
Aparnna Ravi, Dhanyalekshmi Pillai, Christoph Gerbig, Stephen Sitch, Sönke Zaehle, Vishnu Thilakan, and Chandra Shekhar Jha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-817, 2023
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We derive high-resolution terrestrial CO2 fluxes over India from 2012 to 2020. This is achieved by utilizing satellite-based vegetation indices and meteorological data in a data-driven biospheric model. The model simulations are improved by incorporating soil variables and SIF retrievals from satellite instruments and relate them to ecosystem productivity across different biomes. The derived flux products better explain the flux variability compared to other existing model estimates.
Yimian Ma, Xu Yue, Stephen Sitch, Nadine Unger, Johan Uddling, Lina M. Mercado, Cheng Gong, Zhaozhong Feng, Huiyi Yang, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Yang Cao, Yadong Lei, Alexander W. Cheesman, Yansen Xu, and Maria Carolina Duran Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2261–2276, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2261-2023, 2023
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Plants have been found to respond differently to O3, but the variations in the sensitivities have rarely been explained nor fully implemented in large-scale assessment. This study proposes a new O3 damage scheme with leaf mass per area to unify varied sensitivities for all plant species. Our assessment reveals an O3-induced reduction of 4.8 % in global GPP, with the highest reduction of >10 % for cropland, suggesting an emerging risk of crop yield loss under the threat of O3 pollution.
Rodrigo Andres Rivera Martinez, Diego Santaren, Olivier Laurent, Gregoire Broquet, Ford Cropley, Cécile Mallet, Michel Ramonet, Adil Shah, Leonard Rivier, Caroline Bouchet, Catherine Juery, Olivier Duclaux, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2209–2235, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2209-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2209-2023, 2023
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A network of low-cost sensors is a good alternative to improve the detection of fugitive CH4 emissions. We present the results of four tests conducted with two types of Figaro sensors that were assembled on four chambers in a laboratory experiment: a comparison of five models to reconstruct the CH4 signal, a strategy to reduce the training set size, a detection of age effects in the sensors and a test of the capability to transfer a model between chambers for the same type of sensor.
Shengli Tao, Zurui Ao, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Sassan Saatchi, Philippe Ciais, Jérôme Chave, Thuy Le Toan, Pierre-Louis Frison, Xiaomei Hu, Chi Chen, Lei Fan, Mengjia Wang, Jiangling Zhu, Xia Zhao, Xiaojun Li, Xiangzhuo Liu, Yanjun Su, Tianyu Hu, Qinghua Guo, Zhiheng Wang, Zhiyao Tang, Yi Y. Liu, and Jingyun Fang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1577–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1577-2023, 2023
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We provide the first long-term (since 1992), high-resolution (8.9 km) satellite radar backscatter data set (LHScat) with a C-band (5.3 GHz) signal dynamic for global lands. LHScat was created by fusing signals from ERS (1992–2001; C-band), QSCAT (1999–2009; Ku-band), and ASCAT (since 2007; C-band). LHScat has been validated against independent ERS-2 signals. It could be used in a variety of studies, such as vegetation monitoring and hydrological modelling.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
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This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Brendan Byrne, David F. Baker, Sourish Basu, Michael Bertolacci, Kevin W. Bowman, Dustin Carroll, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Noel Cressie, David Crisp, Sean Crowell, Feng Deng, Zhu Deng, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Manvendra K. Dubey, Sha Feng, Omaira E. García, David W. T. Griffith, Benedikt Herkommer, Lei Hu, Andrew R. Jacobson, Rajesh Janardanan, Sujong Jeong, Matthew S. Johnson, Dylan B. A. Jones, Rigel Kivi, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Shamil Maksyutov, John B. Miller, Scot M. Miller, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Tomohiro Oda, Christopher W. O'Dell, Young-Suk Oh, Hirofumi Ohyama, Prabir K. Patra, Hélène Peiro, Christof Petri, Sajeev Philip, David F. Pollard, Benjamin Poulter, Marine Remaud, Andrew Schuh, Mahesh K. Sha, Kei Shiomi, Kimberly Strong, Colm Sweeney, Yao Té, Hanqin Tian, Voltaire A. Velazco, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Thorsten Warneke, John R. Worden, Debra Wunch, Yuanzhi Yao, Jeongmin Yun, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 963–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, 2023
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Changes in the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems result in emissions and removals of CO2. These can be driven by anthropogenic activities (e.g., deforestation), natural processes (e.g., fires) or in response to rising CO2 (e.g., CO2 fertilization). This paper describes a dataset of CO2 emissions and removals derived from atmospheric CO2 observations. This pilot dataset informs current capabilities and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.
Xiaoyong Li, Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun Lu, and Shufen Pan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1005–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1005-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1005-2023, 2023
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We reconstructed land use and land cover (LULC) history for the conterminous United States during 1630–2020 by integrating multi-source data. The results show the widespread expansion of cropland and urban land and the shrinking of natural vegetation in the past four centuries. Forest planting and regeneration accelerated forest recovery since the 1920s. The datasets can be used to assess the LULC impacts on the ecosystem's carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles.
Chuanlong Zhou, Biqing Zhu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Antoine Halff, Simon Ben Arous, Hugo de Almeida Rodrigues, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 949–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-949-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-949-2023, 2023
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Our work aims to analyze sectoral and country-based daily natural gas supply–storage–consumption based on ENTSOG, Eurostat, and multiple datasets in the EU27 and UK. We estimated the magnitude of the Russian gas gap if Russian gas imports were to stop as well as potential short-term solutions to fill this gap. Our datasets could be important in various fields, such as gas/energy consumption and market modeling, carbon emission and climate change research, and policy decision-making.
Weiwei Xiong, Katsumasa Tanaka, Philippe Ciais, Daniel J. A. Johansson, and Mariliis Lehtveer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1508, 2023
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The development and maintenance of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) requires large coordination efforts. The emulator we developed for IAMs (emIAM) can reproduce their emission outcomes well, paving a way to generate multi-IAM scenarios with small computational resources more easily. emIAM can be applied to extend the capabilities of simple climate models as a tool to calculate cost-effective pathways directly related to temperature targets.
Yann Quilcaille, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1129–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, 2023
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The model OSCAR is a simple climate model, meaning its representation of the Earth system is simplified but calibrated on models of higher complexity. Here, we diagnose its latest version using a total of 99 experiments in a probabilistic framework and under observational constraints. OSCAR v3.1 shows good agreement with observations, complex Earth system models and emerging properties. Some points for improvements are identified, such as the ocean carbon cycle.
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
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For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
Andrew F. Feldman, Zhen Zhang, Yasuko Yoshida, Abhishek Chatterjee, and Benjamin Poulter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1545–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1545-2023, 2023
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We investigate the conditions under which satellite-retrieved column carbon dioxide concentrations directly hold information about surface carbon dioxide fluxes, without the use of inversion models. We show that OCO-2 column carbon dioxide retrievals, available at 1–3 month latency, can be used to directly detect and roughly estimate extreme biospheric CO2 fluxes. As such, these OCO-2 retrievals have value for rapidly monitoring extreme conditions in the terrestrial biosphere.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 789–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-789-2023, 2023
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The large uncertainties in OH simulated by atmospheric chemistry models hinder accurate estimates of CH4 chemical loss through the bottom-up method. This study presents a new approach based on OH precursor observations and a chemical box model to improve the tropospheric OH distributions simulated by atmospheric chemistry models. Through this approach, both the global OH burden and the corresponding methane chemical loss reach consistency with the top-down method based on MCF inversions.
Huibin Dai, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Xu Yue, Yang Yang, Jia Zhu, Jianbing Jin, Baojie Li, and Xingwen Jiang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 23–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-23-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-23-2023, 2023
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We apply the 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to simulate co-polluted days by O3 and PM2.5 (O3–PM2.5PDs) in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei in 2013–2020 and investigate the chemical and physical characteristics of O3–PM2.5PDs by composited analyses of such days that are captured by both the observations and the model. We report for the first time the unique features in vertical distributions of aerosols during O3–PM2.5PDs and the physical and chemical characteristics of O3–PM2.5PDs.
Yuan Zhang, Devaraju Narayanappa, Philippe Ciais, Wei Li, Daniel Goll, Nicolas Vuichard, Martin G. De Kauwe, Laurent Li, and Fabienne Maignan
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9111–9125, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9111-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9111-2022, 2022
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There are a few studies to examine if current models correctly represented the complex processes of transpiration. Here, we use a coefficient Ω, which indicates if transpiration is mainly controlled by vegetation processes or by turbulence, to evaluate the ORCHIDEE model. We found a good performance of ORCHIDEE, but due to compensation of biases in different processes, we also identified how different factors control Ω and where the model is wrong. Our method is generic to evaluate other models.
Thomas Bossy, Thomas Gasser, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8831–8868, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8831-2022, 2022
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We developed a new simple climate model designed to fill a perceived gap within the existing simple climate models by fulfilling three key requirements: calibration using Bayesian inference, the possibility of coupling with integrated assessment models, and the capacity to explore climate scenarios compatible with limiting climate impacts. Here, we describe the model and its calibration using the latest data from complex CMIP6 models and the IPCC AR6, and we assess its performance.
Rainer Schneck, Veronika Gayler, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Thomas Raddatz, Christian H. Reick, and Reiner Schnur
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8581–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8581-2022, 2022
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The versions of ICON-A and ICON-Land/JSBACHv4 used for this study constitute the first milestone in the development of the new ICON Earth System Model ICON-ESM. JSBACHv4 is the successor of JSBACHv3, and most of the parameterizations of JSBACHv4 are re-implementations from JSBACHv3. We assess and compare the performance of JSBACHv4 and JSBACHv3. Overall, the JSBACHv4 results are as good as JSBACHv3, but both models reveal the same main shortcomings, e.g. the depiction of the leaf area index.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yitong Yao, Emilie Joetzjer, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Jerome Chave, Lawren Sack, Megan Bartlett, Patrick Meir, Rosie Fisher, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7809–7833, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, 2022
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To facilitate more mechanistic modeling of drought effects on forest dynamics, our study implements a hydraulic module to simulate the vertical water flow, change in water storage and percentage loss of stem conductance (PLC). With the relationship between PLC and tree mortality, our model can successfully reproduce the large biomass drop observed under throughfall exclusion. Our hydraulic module provides promising avenues benefiting the prediction for mortality under future drought events.
Arthur Nicolaus Fendrich, Philippe Ciais, Emanuele Lugato, Marco Carozzi, Bertrand Guenet, Pasquale Borrelli, Victoria Naipal, Matthew McGrath, Philippe Martin, and Panos Panagos
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7835–7857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7835-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7835-2022, 2022
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Currently, spatially explicit models for soil carbon stock can simulate the impacts of several changes. However, they do not incorporate the erosion, lateral transport, and deposition (ETD) of soil material. The present work developed ETD formulation, illustrated model calibration and validation for Europe, and presented the results for a depositional site. We expect that our work advances ETD models' description and facilitates their reproduction and incorporation in land surface models.
Giacomo Grassi, Giulia Conchedda, Sandro Federici, Raul Abad Viñas, Anu Korosuo, Joana Melo, Simone Rossi, Marieke Sandker, Zoltan Somogyi, Matteo Vizzarri, and Francesco N. Tubiello
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4643-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4643-2022, 2022
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Despite increasing attention on the role of land use CO2 fluxes in climate change mitigation, there are large differences in available databases. Here we present the most updated and complete compilation of land use CO2 data based on country submissions to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and explain differences with other datasets. Our dataset brings clarity of land use CO2 fluxes and helps track country progress under the Paris Agreement.
Hanqin Tian, Zihao Bian, Hao Shi, Xiaoyu Qin, Naiqing Pan, Chaoqun Lu, Shufen Pan, Francesco N. Tubiello, Jinfeng Chang, Giulia Conchedda, Junguo Liu, Nathaniel Mueller, Kazuya Nishina, Rongting Xu, Jia Yang, Liangzhi You, and Bowen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4551–4568, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4551-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4551-2022, 2022
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Nitrogen is one of the critical nutrients for growth. Evaluating the change in nitrogen inputs due to human activity is necessary for nutrient management and pollution control. In this study, we generated a historical dataset of nitrogen input to land at the global scale. This dataset consists of nitrogen fertilizer, manure, and atmospheric deposition inputs to cropland, pasture, and rangeland at high resolution from 1860 to 2019.
Mark Pickering, Alessandro Cescatti, and Gregory Duveiller
Biogeosciences, 19, 4833–4864, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4833-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4833-2022, 2022
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This study explores two of the most recent products in carbon productivity estimation, FLUXCOM gross primary productivity (GPP), calculated by upscaling local measurements of CO2 exchange, and remotely sensed sun-induced chlorophyll a fluorescence (SIF). High-resolution SIF data are valuable in demonstrating similarity in the SIF–GPP relationship between vegetation covers, provide an independent probe of the FLUXCOM GPP model and demonstrate the response of SIF to meteorological fluctuations.
Brendan Byrne, Junjie Liu, Yonghong Yi, Abhishek Chatterjee, Sourish Basu, Rui Cheng, Russell Doughty, Frédéric Chevallier, Kevin W. Bowman, Nicholas C. Parazoo, David Crisp, Xing Li, Jingfeng Xiao, Stephen Sitch, Bertrand Guenet, Feng Deng, Matthew S. Johnson, Sajeev Philip, Patrick C. McGuire, and Charles E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 19, 4779–4799, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4779-2022, 2022
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Plants draw CO2 from the atmosphere during the growing season, while respiration releases CO2 to the atmosphere throughout the year, driving seasonal variations in atmospheric CO2 that can be observed by satellites, such as the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2). Using OCO-2 XCO2 data and space-based constraints on plant growth, we show that permafrost-rich northeast Eurasia has a strong seasonal release of CO2 during the autumn, hinting at an unexpectedly large respiration signal from soils.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Chenguang Tian, Xu Yue, Jun Zhu, Hong Liao, Yang Yang, Yadong Lei, Xinyi Zhou, Hao Zhou, Yimian Ma, and Yang Cao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12353–12366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12353-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12353-2022, 2022
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We quantify the impacts of fire aerosols on climate through direct, indirect, and albedo effects. In atmosphere-only simulations, we find global fire aerosols cause surface cooling and rainfall inhibition over many land regions. These fast atmospheric perturbations further lead to a reduction in regional leaf area index and lightning activities. By considering the feedback of fire aerosols on humidity, lightning, and leaf area index, we predict a slight reduction in fire emissions.
Flossie Brown, Gerd A. Folberth, Stephen Sitch, Susanne Bauer, Marijn Bauters, Pascal Boeckx, Alexander W. Cheesman, Makoto Deushi, Inês Dos Santos Vieira, Corinne Galy-Lacaux, James Haywood, James Keeble, Lina M. Mercado, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Hans Verbeeck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12331–12352, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022, 2022
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Surface ozone can decrease plant productivity and impair human health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface ozone due to climate change over South America and Africa using Earth system models. We find that if the climate were to change according to the worst-case scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of ozone exposure, but other areas will experience a climate benefit.
Elise Potier, Grégoire Broquet, Yilong Wang, Diego Santaren, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Julia Marshall, Philippe Ciais, François-Marie Bréon, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5261–5288, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5261-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric inversion at local–regional scales over Europe and pseudo-data assimilation are used to evaluate how CO2 and 14CO2 ground-based measurement networks could complement satellite CO2 imagers to monitor fossil fuel (FF) CO2 emissions. This combination significantly improves precision in the FF emission estimates in areas with a dense network but does not strongly support the separation of the FF from the biogenic signals or the spatio-temporal extrapolation of the satellite information.
Jan De Pue, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Manuela Balzarolo, Fabienne Maignan, and Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs
Biogeosciences, 19, 4361–4386, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4361-2022, 2022
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The functioning of ecosystems involves numerous biophysical processes which interact with each other. Land surface models (LSMs) are used to describe these processes and form an essential component of climate models. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of three LSMs and their interactions with soil moisture and vegetation. Though we found room for improvement in the simulation of soil moisture and drought stress, the main cause of errors was related to the simulated growth of vegetation.
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Theodoros Christoudias, Jonilda Kushta, Didier Hauglustaine, and Jean Sciare
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11505–11527, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11505-2022, 2022
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Emission inventories for air pollutants can be uncertain in developing countries. In order to overcome these uncertainties, we model nitrogen oxide emissions in Egypt using satellite retrievals. We detect a weekly cycle reflecting Egyptian social norms, an annual cycle consistent with electricity consumption and an activity drop due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, discrepancies with inventories remain high, illustrating the needs for additional data to improve the potential of our method.
Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Pierre Regnier, Philippe Ciais, Kristof Van Oost, Victoria Naipal, Bertrand Guenet, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1119–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, 2022
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We present a land surface model which can simulate the complete lateral transfer of sediment and carbon from land to ocean through rivers. Our model captures the water, sediment, and organic carbon discharges in European rivers well. Application of our model in Europe indicates that lateral carbon transfer can strongly change regional land carbon budgets by affecting organic carbon distribution and soil moisture.
Daniel J. Jacob, Daniel J. Varon, Daniel H. Cusworth, Philip E. Dennison, Christian Frankenberg, Ritesh Gautam, Luis Guanter, John Kelley, Jason McKeever, Lesley E. Ott, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Qu, Andrew K. Thorpe, John R. Worden, and Riley M. Duren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9617–9646, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9617-2022, 2022
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We review the capability of satellite observations of atmospheric methane to quantify methane emissions on all scales. We cover retrieval methods, precision requirements, inverse methods for inferring emissions, source detection thresholds, and observations of system completeness. We show that current instruments already enable quantification of regional and national emissions including contributions from large point sources. Coverage and resolution will increase significantly in coming years.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
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Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Roberto Pilli, Ramdane Alkama, Alessandro Cescatti, Werner A. Kurz, and Giacomo Grassi
Biogeosciences, 19, 3263–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, 2022
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To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
Yohanna Villalobos, Peter J. Rayner, Jeremy D. Silver, Steven Thomas, Vanessa Haverd, Jürgen Knauer, Zoë M. Loh, Nicholas M. Deutscher, David W. T. Griffith, and David F. Pollard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8897–8934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8897-2022, 2022
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We study the interannual variability in Australian carbon fluxes for 2015–2019 derived from OCO-2 satellite data. Our results suggest that Australia's semi-arid ecosystems are highly responsive to variations in climate drivers such as rainfall and temperature. We found that high rainfall and low temperatures recorded in 2016 led to an anomalous carbon sink over savanna and sparsely vegetated regions, while unprecedented dry and hot weather in 2019 led to anomalous carbon release.
Mahdi André Nakhavali, Lina M. Mercado, Iain P. Hartley, Stephen Sitch, Fernanda V. Cunha, Raffaello di Ponzio, Laynara F. Lugli, Carlos A. Quesada, Kelly M. Andersen, Sarah E. Chadburn, Andy J. Wiltshire, Douglas B. Clark, Gyovanni Ribeiro, Lara Siebert, Anna C. M. Moraes, Jéssica Schmeisk Rosa, Rafael Assis, and José L. Camargo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5241–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, 2022
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In tropical ecosystems, the availability of rock-derived elements such as P can be very low. Thus, without a representation of P cycling, tropical forest responses to rising atmospheric CO2 conditions in areas such as Amazonia remain highly uncertain. We introduced P dynamics and its interactions with the N and P cycles into the JULES model. Our results highlight the potential for high P limitation and therefore lower CO2 fertilization capacity in the Amazon forest with low-fertility soils.
Quandi Niu, Xuecao Li, Jianxi Huang, Hai Huang, Xianda Huang, Wei Su, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2851–2864, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2851-2022, 2022
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In this paper we generated the first national maize phenology product with a fine spatial resolution (30 m) and a long temporal span (1985–2020) in China, using Landsat images. The derived phenological indicators agree with in situ observations and provide more spatial details than moderate resolution phenology products. The extracted maize phenology dataset can support precise yield estimation and deepen our understanding of the response of agroecosystem to global warming in the future.
Anne Sophie Daloz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Priscilla Mooney, Susanna Strada, Diana Rechid, Edouard L. Davin, Eleni Katragkou, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka, Marcus Breil, Rita M. Cardoso, Peter Hoffmann, Daniela C. A. Lima, Ronny Meier, Pedro M. M. Soares, Giannis Sofiadis, Gustav Strandberg, Merja H. Toelle, and Marianne T. Lund
The Cryosphere, 16, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2403-2022, 2022
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Snow plays a major role in the regulation of the Earth's surface temperature. Together with climate change, rising temperatures are already altering snow in many ways. In this context, it is crucial to better understand the ability of climate models to represent snow and snow processes. This work focuses on Europe and shows that the melting season in spring still represents a challenge for climate models and that more work is needed to accurately simulate snow–atmosphere interactions.
Jiyuan Gao, Yang Yang, Hailong Wang, Pinya Wang, Huimin Li, Mengyun Li, Lili Ren, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7131–7142, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7131-2022, 2022
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China has been implementing a sequence of policies for clean air since the year 2013. The aerosol decline produced a 0.09 ± 0.10°C warming during 2013–2017 estimated in this study, and the increase in ozone in the lower troposphere during this time period accelerated the warming, leading to a total 0.16 ± 0.15°C temperature increase in eastern China. Residential emission reductions led to a cooling effect because of a substantial decrease in light-absorbing aerosols.
Colm Sweeney, Abhishek Chatterjee, Sonja Wolter, Kathryn McKain, Robert Bogue, Stephen Conley, Tim Newberger, Lei Hu, Lesley Ott, Benjamin Poulter, Luke Schiferl, Brad Weir, Zhen Zhang, and Charles E. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6347–6364, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6347-2022, 2022
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The Arctic Carbon Atmospheric Profiles (Arctic-CAP) project demonstrates the utility of aircraft profiles for independent evaluation of model-derived emissions and uptake of atmospheric CO2, CH4, and CO from land and ocean. Comparison with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling system suggests that fluxes of CO2 are very consistent with observations, while those of CH4 have some regional and seasonal biases, and that CO comparison is complicated by transport errors.
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2045–2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, 2022
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To investigate the impacts of drought on vegetation, which few studies have done due to various limitations, we used the leaf area index as proxy and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to simulate drought impacts because the models use observationally derived climate. We found that the semi-desert biome responds strongly to drought in the summer season, while the tropical forest biome shows a weak response. This study could help target areas to improve drought monitoring and simulation.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ruqi Yang, Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Stephen Sitch, Wenhan Tang, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Qixiang Cai, Di Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Hanqin Tian, Atul K. Jain, and Pengfei Han
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 833–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, 2022
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We comprehensively investigate historical GPP trends based on five kinds of GPP datasets and analyze the causes for any discrepancies among them. Results show contrasting behaviors between modeled and satellite-based GPP trends, and their inconsistencies are likely caused by the contrasting performance between satellite-derived and modeled leaf area index (LAI). Thus, the uncertainty in satellite-based GPP induced by LAI undermines its role in assessing the performance of DGVM simulations.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
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The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Mathilda Hancock, Stephen Sitch, Fabian Jörg Fischer, Jérôme Chave, Michael O'Sullivan, Dominic Fawcett, and Lina María Mercado
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-87, 2022
Publication in BG not foreseen
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Global vegetation models often underestimate the spatial variability of carbon stored in the Amazon forest. This paper demonstrates that including spatially varying tree mortality rates, as opposed to a homogeneous rate, in one model, significantly improves its simulations of the forest carbon store. To overcome the limited resolution of tree mortality data, this research presents a simple method of calculating mortality rates across Amazonia using a dependence on wood density.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Zitely A. Tzompa-Sosa, Marielle Saunois, Chunjing Qiu, Chang Tan, Taochun Sun, Piyu Ke, Yanan Cui, Katsumasa Tanaka, Xin Lin, Rona L. Thompson, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Atul K. Jain, Xiaoming Xu, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Paul I. Palmer, Thomas Lauvaux, Alexandre d'Aspremont, Clément Giron, Antoine Benoit, Benjamin Poulter, Jinfeng Chang, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Giacomo Grassi, Clément Albergel, Francesco N. Tubiello, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1639–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, 2022
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In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, we proposed a method for reconciling the results of global atmospheric inversions with data from UNFCCC national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, based on a new global harmonized database that we compiled from the UNFCCC NGHGIs and a comprehensive framework presented in this study to process the results of inversions, we compared their results of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Elodie Salmon, Fabrice Jégou, Bertrand Guenet, Line Jourdain, Chunjing Qiu, Vladislav Bastrikov, Christophe Guimbaud, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Peylin, Sébastien Gogo, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Mika Aurela, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Jiquan Chen, Bogdan H. Chojnicki, Housen Chu, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, David Holl, Janina Klatt, Olaf Kolle, Natalia Kowalska, Lars Kutzbach, Annalea Lohila, Lutz Merbold, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Torsten Sachs, and Klaudia Ziemblińska
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2813–2838, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2813-2022, 2022
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A methane model that features methane production and transport by plants, the ebullition process and diffusion in soil, oxidation to CO2, and CH4 fluxes to the atmosphere has been embedded in the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model, which includes an explicit representation of northern peatlands. This model, ORCHIDEE-PCH4, was calibrated and evaluated on 14 peatland sites. Results show that the model is sensitive to temperature and substrate availability over the top 75 cm of soil depth.
Benjamin Wild, Irene Teubner, Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Matthias Forkel, Robin van der Schalie, Stephen Sitch, and Wouter Dorigo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1063–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1063-2022, 2022
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Gross primary production (GPP) describes the conversion of CO2 to carbohydrates and can be seen as a filter for our atmosphere of the primary greenhouse gas CO2. We developed VODCA2GPP, a GPP dataset that is based on vegetation optical depth from microwave remote sensing and temperature. Thus, it is mostly independent from existing GPP datasets and also available in regions with frequent cloud coverage. Analysis showed that VODCA2GPP is able to complement existing state-of-the-art GPP datasets.
Céline Gommet, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Haicheng Zhang, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 393–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, 2022
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Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils into river networks is an important component of the land carbon (C) budget, but its spatiotemporal variation is not yet fully constrained. We use a land surface model to simulate the present-day land C budget at the European scale, including leaching of DOC from the soil. We found average leaching of 14.3 Tg C yr−1 (0.6 % of terrestrial net primary production) with seasonal variations. We determine runoff and temperature to be the main drivers.
Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Josep G. Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoly Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022
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The second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this paper, we give definitions, review different methods, and make recommendations for estimating different components of the total land–atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.
Hao Zhou, Xu Yue, Yadong Lei, Chenguang Tian, Jun Zhu, Yimian Ma, Yang Cao, Xixi Yin, and Zhiding Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-693-2022, 2022
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Aerosols enhance plant photosynthesis by increasing diffuse radiation. In this study, we found that the aerosol impacts are quite different for varied species. Scattering aerosols such as sulfate and organic carbon promote photosynthesis while absorbing aerosols such as black carbon have negative impacts. Earth system models should consider the impacts of cloud and aerosol species on terrestrial ecosystems so as to better predict carbon cycles under different emission scenarios.
Lore T. Verryckt, Sara Vicca, Leandro Van Langenhove, Clément Stahl, Dolores Asensio, Ifigenia Urbina, Romà Ogaya, Joan Llusià, Oriol Grau, Guille Peguero, Albert Gargallo-Garriga, Elodie A. Courtois, Olga Margalef, Miguel Portillo-Estrada, Philippe Ciais, Michael Obersteiner, Lucia Fuchslueger, Laynara F. Lugli, Pere-Roc Fernandez-Garberí, Helena Vallicrosa, Melanie Verlinden, Christian Ranits, Pieter Vermeir, Sabrina Coste, Erik Verbruggen, Laëtitia Bréchet, Jordi Sardans, Jérôme Chave, Josep Peñuelas, and Ivan A. Janssens
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5-2022, 2022
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We provide a comprehensive dataset of vertical profiles of photosynthesis and important leaf traits, including leaf N and P concentrations, from two 3-year, large-scale nutrient addition experiments conducted in two tropical rainforests in French Guiana. These data present a unique source of information to further improve model representations of the roles of N and P, and other leaf nutrients, in photosynthesis in tropical forests.
István Dunkl, Aaron Spring, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, 2021
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The variability in atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by terrestrial carbon fluxes. These land–atmosphere fluxes are predictable for around 2 years, but the mechanisms providing the predictability are not well understood. By decomposing the predictability of carbon fluxes into individual contributors we were able to explain the spatial and seasonal patterns and the interannual variability of CO2 flux predictability.
Yohanna Villalobos, Peter J. Rayner, Jeremy D. Silver, Steven Thomas, Vanessa Haverd, Jürgen Knauer, Zoë M. Loh, Nicholas M. Deutscher, David W. T. Griffith, and David F. Pollard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17453–17494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17453-2021, 2021
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Semi-arid ecosystems such as those in Australia are evolving and might play an essential role in the future of climate change. We use carbon dioxide concentrations derived from the OCO-2 satellite instrument and a regional transport model to understand if Australia was a carbon sink or source of CO2 in 2015. Our research's main findings suggest that Australia acted as a carbon sink of about −0.41 ± 0.08 petagrams of carbon in 2015, driven primarily by savanna and sparsely vegetated ecosystems.
Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas Döbbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5213–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, 2021
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We provide a synthetic dataset on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. We show that GHG emissions continued to rise across all gases and sectors. Annual average GHG emissions growth slowed, but absolute decadal increases have never been higher in human history. We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues in global inventories and highlight their importance for monitoring progress towards international climate goals.
Adrian Chappell, Nicholas Webb, Mark Hennen, Charles Zender, Philippe Ciais, Kerstin Schepanski, Brandon Edwards, Nancy Ziegler, Sandra Jones, Yves Balkanski, Daniel Tong, John Leys, Stephan Heidenreich, Robert Hynes, David Fuchs, Zhenzhong Zeng, Marie Ekström, Matthew Baddock, Jeffrey Lee, and Tarek Kandakji
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-337, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Dust emissions influence global climate while simultaneously reducing the productive potential and resilience of landscapes to climate stressors, together impacting food security and human health. Our results indicate that tuning dust emission models to dust in the atmosphere has hidden dust emission modelling weaknesses and its poor performance. Our new approach will reduce uncertainty and driven by prognostic albedo improve Earth System Models of aerosol effects on future environmental change.
Stefanie Falk, Ane V. Vollsnes, Aud B. Eriksen, Lisa Emberson, Connie O'Neill, Frode Stordal, and Terje Koren Berntsen
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-260, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-260, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Subarctic vegetation is threatened by climate change and ozone. We assess essential climate variables in 2018/19. 2018 was warmer and brighter than usual in Spring with forest fires and elevated ozone in summer. Visible damage was observed on plant species in 2018. We find that generic parameterizations used in modeling ozone dose do not suffice. We propose a method to acclimate these parameterizations and find an ozone-induced biomass loss of 2.5 to 17.4 % (up to 6 % larger than default).
Simon Besnard, Sujan Koirala, Maurizio Santoro, Ulrich Weber, Jacob Nelson, Jonas Gütter, Bruno Herault, Justin Kassi, Anny N'Guessan, Christopher Neigh, Benjamin Poulter, Tao Zhang, and Nuno Carvalhais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4881–4896, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4881-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4881-2021, 2021
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Forest age can determine the capacity of a forest to uptake carbon from the atmosphere. Yet, a lack of global diagnostics that reflect the forest stage and associated disturbance regimes hampers the quantification of age-related differences in forest carbon dynamics. In this paper, we introduced a new global distribution of forest age inferred from forest inventory, remote sensing and climate data in support of a better understanding of the global dynamics in the forest water and carbon cycles.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Anthony P. Walker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 5639–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, 2021
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The Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, yet the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations by an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models over Australia and highlighted a number of key areas that lead to model divergence on both short (inter-annual) and long (decadal) timescales.
Stefanie Falk, Ane V. Vollsnes, Aud B. Eriksen, Frode Stordal, and Terje Koren Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 15647–15661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15647-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15647-2021, 2021
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We evaluate regional and global models for ozone modeling and damage risk mapping of vegetation over subarctic Europe. Our analysis suggests that low-resolution global models do not reproduce the observed ozone seasonal cycle at ground level, underestimating ozone by 30–50 %. High-resolution regional models capture the seasonal cycle well, still underestimating ozone by up to 20 %. Our proposed gap-filling method for site observations shows a 76 % accuracy compared to the regional model (80 %).
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
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Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 501–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, 2021
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Linear response functions are a powerful tool to both predict and investigate the dynamics of a system when subjected to small perturbations. In practice, these functions must often be derived from perturbation experiment data. Nevertheless, current methods for this identification require a tailored perturbation experiment, often with many realizations. We present a method that instead derives these functions from a single realization of an experiment driven by any type of perturbation.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 533–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-533-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-533-2021, 2021
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We apply a new identification method to derive the response functions that characterize the sensitivity of the land carbon cycle to CO2 perturbations in an Earth system model. By means of these response functions, which generalize the usually employed single-valued sensitivities, we can reliably predict the response of the land carbon to weak perturbations. Further, we demonstrate how by this new method one can robustly derive and interpret internal spectra of timescales of the system.
Jina Jeong, Jonathan Barichivich, Philippe Peylin, Vanessa Haverd, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Nicolas Vuichard, Michael Neil Evans, Flurin Babst, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5891–5913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021, 2021
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We have proposed and evaluated the use of four benchmarks that leverage tree-ring width observations to provide more nuanced verification targets for land-surface models (LSMs), which currently lack a long-term benchmark for forest ecosystem functioning. Using relatively unbiased European biomass network datasets, we identify the extent to which presumed biases in the much larger International Tree-Ring Data Bank might degrade the validation of LSMs.
Alex Resovsky, Michel Ramonet, Leonard Rivier, Jerome Tarniewicz, Philippe Ciais, Martin Steinbacher, Ivan Mammarella, Meelis Mölder, Michal Heliasz, Dagmar Kubistin, Matthias Lindauer, Jennifer Müller-Williams, Sebastien Conil, and Richard Engelen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6119–6135, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6119-2021, 2021
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We present a technical description of a statistical methodology for extracting synoptic- and seasonal-length anomalies from greenhouse gas time series. The definition of what represents an anomalous signal is somewhat subjective, which we touch on throughout the paper. We show, however, that the method performs reasonably well in extracting portions of time series influenced by significant North Atlantic Oscillation weather episodes and continent-wide terrestrial biospheric aberrations.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
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Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Pramod Kumar, Grégoire Broquet, Camille Yver-Kwok, Olivier Laurent, Susan Gichuki, Christopher Caldow, Ford Cropley, Thomas Lauvaux, Michel Ramonet, Guillaume Berthe, Frédéric Martin, Olivier Duclaux, Catherine Juery, Caroline Bouchet, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5987–6003, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5987-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5987-2021, 2021
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This study presents a simple atmospheric inversion modeling framework for the localization and quantification of unknown CH4 and CO2 emissions from point sources based on near-surface mobile concentration measurements and a Gaussian plume dispersion model. It is applied for the estimate of a series of brief controlled releases of CH4 and CO2 with a wide range of rates during the TOTAL TADI-2018 experiment. Results indicate a ~10 %–40 % average error on the estimate of the release rates.
Yuanyuan Huang, Phillipe Ciais, Maurizio Santoro, David Makowski, Jerome Chave, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Rose Z. Abramoff, Daniel S. Goll, Hui Yang, Ye Chen, Wei Wei, and Shilong Piao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4263–4274, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4263-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4263-2021, 2021
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Roots play a key role in our Earth system. Here we combine 10 307 field measurements of forest root biomass worldwide with global observations of forest structure, climatic conditions, topography, land management and soil characteristics to derive a spatially explicit global high-resolution (~ 1 km) root biomass dataset. In total, 142 ± 25 (95 % CI) Pg of live dry-matter biomass is stored belowground, representing a global average root : shoot biomass ratio of 0.25 ± 0.10.
Louise Chini, George Hurtt, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Stephen Sitch, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Lei Ma, Lesley Ott, Julia Pongratz, and Benjamin Poulter
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4175–4189, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4175-2021, 2021
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Carbon emissions from land-use change are a large and uncertain component of the global carbon cycle. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset was developed as an input to carbon and climate simulations and has been updated annually for the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2 updates and describe the 2019 version which used new cropland and grazing land data inputs for the globally important region of Brazil.
Yi Yin, Frederic Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Bousquet, Marielle Saunois, Bo Zheng, John Worden, A. Anthony Bloom, Robert J. Parker, Daniel J. Jacob, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Christian Frankenberg
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12631–12647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12631-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12631-2021, 2021
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The growth of methane, the second-most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, has been accelerating in recent years. Using an ensemble of multi-tracer atmospheric inversions constrained by surface or satellite observations, we show that global methane emissions increased by nearly 1 % per year from 2010–2017, with leading contributions from the tropics and East Asia.
Yadong Lei, Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Lin Zhang, Yang Yang, Hao Zhou, Chenguang Tian, Cheng Gong, Yimian Ma, Lan Gao, and Yang Cao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11531–11543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11531-2021, 2021
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We present the first estimate of ozone enhancement by fire emissions through ozone–vegetation interactions using a fully coupled chemistry–vegetation model (GC-YIBs). In fire-prone areas, fire-induced ozone causes a positive feedback to surface ozone mainly because of the inhibition effects on stomatal conductance.
Kyle B. Delwiche, Sara Helen Knox, Avni Malhotra, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Gavin McNicol, Sarah Feron, Zutao Ouyang, Dario Papale, Carlo Trotta, Eleonora Canfora, You-Wei Cheah, Danielle Christianson, Ma. Carmelita R. Alberto, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Dennis Baldocchi, Sheel Bansal, David P. Billesbach, Gil Bohrer, Rosvel Bracho, Nina Buchmann, David I. Campbell, Gerardo Celis, Jiquan Chen, Weinan Chen, Housen Chu, Higo J. Dalmagro, Sigrid Dengel, Ankur R. Desai, Matteo Detto, Han Dolman, Elke Eichelmann, Eugenie Euskirchen, Daniela Famulari, Kathrin Fuchs, Mathias Goeckede, Sébastien Gogo, Mangaliso J. Gondwe, Jordan P. Goodrich, Pia Gottschalk, Scott L. Graham, Martin Heimann, Manuel Helbig, Carole Helfter, Kyle S. Hemes, Takashi Hirano, David Hollinger, Lukas Hörtnagl, Hiroki Iwata, Adrien Jacotot, Gerald Jurasinski, Minseok Kang, Kuno Kasak, John King, Janina Klatt, Franziska Koebsch, Ken W. Krauss, Derrick Y. F. Lai, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Giovanni Manca, Jaclyn Hatala Matthes, Trofim Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Bhaskar Mitra, Timothy H. Morin, Eiko Nemitz, Mats B. Nilsson, Shuli Niu, Walter C. Oechel, Patricia Y. Oikawa, Keisuke Ono, Matthias Peichl, Olli Peltola, Michele L. Reba, Andrew D. Richardson, William Riley, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Youngryel Ryu, Torsten Sachs, Ayaka Sakabe, Camilo Rey Sanchez, Edward A. Schuur, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Oliver Sonnentag, Jed P. Sparks, Ellen Stuart-Haëntjens, Cove Sturtevant, Ryan C. Sullivan, Daphne J. Szutu, Jonathan E. Thom, Margaret S. Torn, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Jessica Turner, Masahito Ueyama, Alex C. Valach, Rodrigo Vargas, Andrej Varlagin, Alma Vazquez-Lule, Joseph G. Verfaillie, Timo Vesala, George L. Vourlitis, Eric J. Ward, Christian Wille, Georg Wohlfahrt, Guan Xhuan Wong, Zhen Zhang, Donatella Zona, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Benjamin Poulter, and Robert B. Jackson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3607–3689, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, 2021
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas, yet we lack knowledge about its global emissions and drivers. We present FLUXNET-CH4, a new global collection of methane measurements and a critical resource for the research community. We use FLUXNET-CH4 data to quantify the seasonality of methane emissions from freshwater wetlands, finding that methane seasonality varies strongly with latitude. Our new database and analysis will improve wetland model accuracy and inform greenhouse gas budgets.
Yidi Xu, Philippe Ciais, Le Yu, Wei Li, Xiuzhi Chen, Haicheng Zhang, Chao Yue, Kasturi Kanniah, Arthur P. Cracknell, and Peng Gong
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4573–4592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4573-2021, 2021
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In this study, we implemented the specific morphology, phenology and harvest process of oil palm in the global land surface model ORCHIDEE-MICT. The improved model generally reproduces the same leaf area index, biomass density and life cycle fruit yield as observations. This explicit representation of oil palm in a global land surface model offers a useful tool for understanding the ecological processes of oil palm growth and assessing the environmental impacts of oil palm plantations.
Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Thomas Lauvaux, Bo Zheng, Michel Ramonet, Irène Xueref-Remy, Simone Kotthaus, Martial Haeffelin, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10707–10726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10707-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10707-2021, 2021
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Currently there is growing interest in monitoring city-scale CO2 emissions based on atmospheric CO2 measurements, atmospheric transport modeling, and inversion technique. We analyze the various sources of uncertainty that impact the atmospheric CO2 modeling and that may compromise the potential of this method for the monitoring of CO2 emission over Paris. Results suggest selection criteria for the assimilation of CO2 measurements into the inversion system that aims at retrieving city emissions.
Elisa Bruni, Bertrand Guenet, Yuanyuan Huang, Hugues Clivot, Iñigo Virto, Roberta Farina, Thomas Kätterer, Philippe Ciais, Manuel Martin, and Claire Chenu
Biogeosciences, 18, 3981–4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3981-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3981-2021, 2021
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Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is beneficial for climate change mitigation and food security. One way to enhance SOC stocks is to increase carbon input to the soil. We estimate the amount of carbon input required to reach a 4 % annual increase in SOC stocks in 14 long-term agricultural experiments around Europe. We found that annual carbon input should increase by 43 % under current temperature conditions, by 54 % for a 1 °C warming scenario and by 120 % for a 5 °C warming scenario.
Ana Bastos, Kerstin Hartung, Tobias B. Nützel, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Richard A. Houghton, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 745–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, 2021
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Fluxes from land-use change and management (FLUC) are a large source of uncertainty in global and regional carbon budgets. Here, we evaluate the impact of different model parameterisations on FLUC. We show that carbon stock densities and allocation of carbon following transitions contribute more to uncertainty in FLUC than response-curve time constants. Uncertainty in FLUC could thus, in principle, be reduced by available Earth-observation data on carbon densities at a global scale.
Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Louise Chini, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Felix Havermann, George C. Hurtt, Tammas Loughran, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 763–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, 2021
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In this study, we model the relative importance of several contributors to the land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) flux based on a LULCC dataset including uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty of LULCC is as relevant as applying wood harvest and gross transitions for the cumulative LULCC flux over the industrial period. However, LULCC uncertainty matters less than the other two factors for the LULCC flux in 2014; historical LULCC uncertainty is negligible for estimates of future scenarios.
Brad Weir, Lesley E. Ott, George J. Collatz, Stephan R. Kawa, Benjamin Poulter, Abhishek Chatterjee, Tomohiro Oda, and Steven Pawson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9609–9628, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9609-2021, 2021
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We present a collection of carbon surface fluxes, the Low-order Flux Inversion (LoFI), derived from satellite observations of the Earth's surface and calibrated to match long-term inventories and atmospheric and oceanic records. Simulations using LoFI reproduce background atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements with comparable skill to the leading surface flux products. Available both retrospectively and as a forecast, LoFI enables the study of the carbon cycle as it occurs.
Bowen Cao, Le Yu, Victoria Naipal, Philippe Ciais, Wei Li, Yuanyuan Zhao, Wei Wei, Die Chen, Zhuang Liu, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2437–2456, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2437-2021, 2021
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In this study, the first 30 m resolution terrace map of China was developed through supervised pixel-based classification using multisource, multi-temporal data based on the Google Earth Engine platform. The classification performed well with an overall accuracy of 94 %. The terrace mapping algorithm can be used to map large-scale terraces in other regions globally, and the terrace map will be valuable for studies on soil erosion, carbon cycle, and ecosystem service assessments.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Matthew J. McGrath, Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Francesco N. Tubiello, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Pongratz, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, Matthias Kuhnert, Juraj Balkovič, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Hugo A. C. Denier van der
Gon, Efisio Solazzo, Chunjing Qiu, Roberto Pilli, Igor B. Konovalov, Richard A. Houghton, Dirk Günther, Lucia Perugini, Monica Crippa, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Pete Smith, Saqr Munassar, Rona L. Thompson, Giulia Conchedda, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2363–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CO2 fossil emissions and CO2 land fluxes in the EU27+UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with ecosystem data, land carbon models and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling CO2 estimates with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
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We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Jasdeep Singh Anand, Alessandro Anav, Marcello Vitale, Daniele Peano, Nadine Unger, Xu Yue, Robert J. Parker, and Hartmut Boesch
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-125, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-125, 2021
Publication in BG not foreseen
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Ozone damages plants, which prevents them from absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. This poses a potential threat to preventing dangerous climate change. In this work, satellite observations of forest cover, ozone, climate, and growing season are combined with an empirical model to estimate the carbon lost due to ozone exposure over Europe. The estimated carbon losses agree well with prior modelled estimates, showing for the first time that satellites can be used to better understand this effect.
Zhen Zhang, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Katherine Jensen, Kyle McDonald, Gustaf Hugelius, Thomas Gumbricht, Mark Carroll, Catherine Prigent, Annett Bartsch, and Benjamin Poulter
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2001–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2001-2021, 2021
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The spatiotemporal distribution of wetlands is one of the important and yet uncertain factors determining the time and locations of methane fluxes. The Wetland Area and Dynamics for Methane Modeling (WAD2M) dataset describes the global data product used to quantify the areal dynamics of natural wetlands and how global wetlands are changing in response to climate.
Leonardo Calle and Benjamin Poulter
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2575–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2575-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2575-2021, 2021
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We developed a model to simulate and track the age of ecosystems on Earth. We found that the effect of ecosystem age on net primary production and ecosystem respiration is as important as climate in large areas of every vegetated continent. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age-class model simulates dynamic age-class distributions on Earth and represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
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We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Zichong Chen, Junjie Liu, Daven K. Henze, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Kelley C. Wells, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Emilie Joetzjer, Vladislav Bastrikov, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Hanqin Tian, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Scot M. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6663–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, 2021
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NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite observes atmospheric CO2 globally. We use a multiple regression and inverse model to quantify the relationships between OCO-2 and environmental drivers within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. Our results point to limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to inform key relationships that are very uncertain in process-based models.
Rui Guo, Jiaoyue Wang, Longfei Bing, Dan Tong, Philippe Ciais, Steven J. Davis, Robbie M. Andrew, Fengming Xi, and Zhu Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1791–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1791-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1791-2021, 2021
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Using a life-cycle approach, we estimated the CO2 process emission and uptake of cement materials produced and consumed from 1930 to 2019; ~21 Gt of CO2, about 55 % of the total process emission, had been abated through cement carbonation. China contributed the greatest to the cumulative uptake, with more than 6 Gt (~30 % of the world total), while ~59 %, or more than 12 Gt, of the total uptake was attributed to mortar. Cement CO2 uptake makes up a considerable part of the human carbon budget.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
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Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Francesco N. Tubiello, Giulia Conchedda, Nathan Wanner, Sandro Federici, Simone Rossi, and Giacomo Grassi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1681–1691, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1681-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1681-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the first estimates of forest carbon fluxes (1990–2020) based on the new Global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) 2020. We document for the first time in the literature forest carbon fluxes for the last decade 2011–2020. Results show that carbon losses from net forest conversion (3.1 billion tonnes of CO2) were counterbalanced by carbon gains on forest land (−3.3 billion tonnes of CO2), resulting in the world's forests acting overall as a small carbon sink in the past decade.
Wei Min Hao, Matthew C. Reeves, L. Scott Baggett, Yves Balkanski, Philippe Ciais, Bryce L. Nordgren, Alexander Petkov, Rachel E. Corley, Florent Mouillot, Shawn P. Urbanski, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 18, 2559–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2559-2021, 2021
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We examined the trends in the spatial and temporal distribution of the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016. The annual area burned in this region declined by 53 % during the 15-year period under analysis. Grassland fires in Kazakhstan dominated the fire activity, comprising 47 % of the area burned but accounting for 84 % of the decline. A wetter climate and the increase in grazing livestock in Kazakhstan are the major factors contributing to the decline in the area burned.
Yuan Zhang, Olivier Boucher, Philippe Ciais, Laurent Li, and Nicolas Bellouin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2029–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, 2021
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We investigated different methods to reconstruct spatiotemporal distribution of the fraction of diffuse radiation (Fdf) to qualify the aerosol impacts on GPP using the ORCHIDEE_DF land surface model. We find that climatological-averaging methods which dampen the variability of Fdf can cause significant bias in the modeled diffuse radiation impacts on GPP. Better methods to reconstruct Fdf are recommended.
Daniele Peano, Deborah Hemming, Stefano Materia, Christine Delire, Yuanchao Fan, Emilie Joetzjer, Hanna Lee, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Taejin Park, Philippe Peylin, David Wårlind, Andy Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 2405–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2405-2021, 2021
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Global climate models are the scientist’s tools used for studying past, present, and future climate conditions. This work examines the ability of a group of our tools in reproducing and capturing the right timing and length of the season when plants show their green leaves. This season, indeed, is fundamental for CO2 exchanges between land, atmosphere, and climate. This work shows that discrepancies compared to observations remain, demanding further polishing of these tools.
Yan Sun, Daniel S. Goll, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Betrand Guenet, Julian Helfenstein, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Fabienne Maignan, Victoria Naipal, Yilong Wang, Hui Yang, and Haicheng Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1987–2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1987-2021, 2021
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We evaluated the performance of the nutrient-enabled version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CNP v1.2 against remote sensing, ground-based measurement networks and ecological databases. The simulated carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes among different spatial scales are generally in good agreement with data-driven estimates. However, the recent carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere is substantially underestimated. Potential causes and model development priorities are discussed.
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
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All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
Bruno Ringeval, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Christian Folberth, Wenfeng Liu, Philippe Debaeke, and Sylvain Pellerin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1639–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, 2021
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We assess how and why global gridded crop models (GGCMs) differ in their simulation of potential yield. We build a GCCM emulator based on generic formalism and fit its parameters against aboveground biomass and yield at harvest simulated by eight GGCMs. Despite huge differences between GGCMs, we show that the calibration of a few key parameters allows the emulator to reproduce the GGCM simulations. Our simple but mechanistic model could help to improve the global simulation of potential yield.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Feng Zhou, Xuhui Wang, Polcher Jan, Patrice Dumas, Shushi Peng, Laurent Li, Xudong Zhou, Yan Bo, Yi Xi, and Shilong Piao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1133–1150, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1133-2021, 2021
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We improved the irrigation module in a land surface model ORCHIDEE and developed a dam operation model with the aim to investigate how irrigation and dams affect the streamflow fluctuations of the Yellow River. Results show that irrigation mainly reduces the annual river flow. The dam operation, however, mainly affects streamflow variation. By considering two generic operation rules, flood control and base flow guarantee, our dam model can sustainably improve the simulation accuracy.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Zihao Bian, Hanqin Tian, Qichun Yang, Rongting Xu, Shufen Pan, and Bowen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 515–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-515-2021, 2021
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The estimation of manure nutrient production and application is critical for the efficient use of manure nutrients. This study developed four manure nitrogen and phosphorus datasets with high spatial resolution and a long time period (1860–2017) in the US. The datasets can provide useful information for stakeholders and scientists who focus on agriculture, nutrient budget, and biogeochemical cycle.
Sudhanshu Pandey, Sander Houweling, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Maria Tsivlidou, A. Anthony Bloom, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, and Ilse Aben
Biogeosciences, 18, 557–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-557-2021, 2021
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We use atmospheric methane observations from the novel TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI; Sentinel-5p) to estimate methane emissions from South Sudan's wetlands. Our emission estimates are an order of magnitude larger than the estimate of process-based wetland models. We find that this underestimation by the models is likely due to their misrepresentation of the wetlands' inundation extent and temperature dependences.
Y. Sim Tang, Chris R. Flechard, Ulrich Dämmgen, Sonja Vidic, Vesna Djuricic, Marta Mitosinkova, Hilde T. Uggerud, Maria J. Sanz, Ivan Simmons, Ulrike Dragosits, Eiko Nemitz, Marsailidh Twigg, Netty van Dijk, Yannick Fauvel, Francisco Sanz, Martin Ferm, Cinzia Perrino, Maria Catrambone, David Leaver, Christine F. Braban, J. Neil Cape, Mathew R. Heal, and Mark A. Sutton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 875–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-875-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-875-2021, 2021
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The DELTA® approach provided speciated, monthly data on reactive gases (NH3, HNO3, SO2, HCl) and aerosols (NH4+, NO3−, SO42−, Cl−, Na+) across Europe (2006–2010). Differences in spatial and temporal concentrations and patterns between geographic regions and four ecosystem types were captured. NH3 and NH4NO3 were dominant components, highlighting their growing relative importance in ecosystem impacts (acidification, eutrophication) and human health effects (NH3 as a precursor to PM2.5) in Europe.
Xiaoying Shi, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Peter E. Thornton, Xiaofeng Xu, Fengming Yuan, Richard J. Norby, Anthony P. Walker, Jeffrey M. Warren, Jiafu Mao, Paul J. Hanson, Lin Meng, David Weston, and Natalie A. Griffiths
Biogeosciences, 18, 467–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-467-2021, 2021
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The Sphagnum mosses are the important species of a wetland ecosystem. To better represent the peatland ecosystem, we introduced the moss species to the land model component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing water content dynamics and nonvascular photosynthetic processes for moss. We tested the model against field observations and used the model to make projections of the site's carbon cycle under warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios.
Diego Santaren, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Frédéric Chevallier, Denis Siméoni, Bo Zheng, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 403–433, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-403-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-403-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric transport inversions with synthetic data are used to assess the potential of new satellite observations of atmospheric CO2 to monitor anthropogenic emissions from regions, cities and large industrial plants. The analysis, applied to a large ensemble of sources in western Europe, shows a strong dependence of the results on different characteristics of the spaceborne instrument, on the source emission budgets and spreads, and on the wind conditions.
Adam Hastie, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Fabrice Papa, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, 2021
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We used a model of the Congo Basin to investigate the transfer of carbon (C) from land (vegetation and soils) to inland waters. We estimate that leaching of C to inland waters, emissions of CO2 from the water surface, and the export of C to the coast have all increased over the last century, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change. We predict that these trends may continue through the 21st century and call for long-term monitoring of these fluxes.
Quentin Lejeune, Edouard L. Davin, Grégory Duveiller, Bas Crezee, Ronny Meier, Alessandro Cescatti, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1209–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020, 2020
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Trees are darker than crops or grasses; hence, they absorb more solar radiation. Therefore, land cover changes modify the fraction of solar radiation reflected by the land surface (its albedo), with consequences for the climate. We apply a new statistical method to simulations conducted with 15 recent climate models and find that albedo variations due to land cover changes since 1860 have led to a decrease in the net amount of energy entering the atmosphere by −0.09 W m2 on average.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Bettina K. Gier, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 17, 6115–6144, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6115-2020, 2020
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Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phases 5 and 6 are compared to a satellite data product of column-averaged CO2 mole fractions (XCO2). The previously believed discrepancy of the negative trend in seasonal cycle amplitude in the satellite product, which is not seen in in situ data nor in the models, is attributed to a sampling characteristic. Furthermore, CMIP6 models are shown to have made progress in reproducing the observed XCO2 time series compared to CMIP5.
Felix Leung, Karina Williams, Stephen Sitch, Amos P. K. Tai, Andy Wiltshire, Jemma Gornall, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Timothy Arkebauer, and David Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6201–6213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6201-2020, 2020
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Ground-level ozone (O3) is detrimental to plant productivity and crop yield. Currently, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) includes a representation of crops (JULES-crop). The parameters for O3 damage in soybean in JULES-crop were calibrated against photosynthesis measurements from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE). The result shows good performance for yield, and it helps contribute to understanding of the impacts of climate and air pollution on food security.
Yilong Wang, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Franck Lespinas, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Yasjka Meijer, Armin Loescher, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Bo Zheng, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5813–5831, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5813-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5813-2020, 2020
Jie Dong, Yangyang Fu, Jingjing Wang, Haifeng Tian, Shan Fu, Zheng Niu, Wei Han, Yi Zheng, Jianxi Huang, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3081–3095, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3081-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3081-2020, 2020
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For the first time, we produced a 30 m winter wheat distribution map in China for 3 years during 2016–2018. Validated with 33 776 survey samples, the map had perfect performance with an overall accuracy of 89.88 %. Moreover, the method can identify planting areas of winter wheat 3 months prior to harvest; that is valuable information for production predictions and is urgently necessary for policymakers to reduce economic loss and assess food security.
Tea Thum, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Jari Liski, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Tiina Markkanen, Julia Pongratz, Yukio Yoshida, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 17, 5721–5743, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5721-2020, 2020
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Global vegetation models are important tools in estimating the impacts of global climate change. The fate of soil carbon is of the upmost importance as its emissions will enhance the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. To evaluate the skill of global vegetation models to model the soil carbon and its responses to environmental factors, it is important to use different data sources. We evaluated two different soil carbon models by using atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
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We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
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To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Yuan Zhang, Ana Bastos, Fabienne Maignan, Daniel Goll, Olivier Boucher, Laurent Li, Alessandro Cescatti, Nicolas Vuichard, Xiuzhi Chen, Christof Ammann, M. Altaf Arain, T. Andrew Black, Bogdan Chojnicki, Tomomichi Kato, Ivan Mammarella, Leonardo Montagnani, Olivier Roupsard, Maria J. Sanz, Lukas Siebicke, Marek Urbaniak, Francesco Primo Vaccari, Georg Wohlfahrt, Will Woodgate, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5401–5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, 2020
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We improved the ORCHIDEE LSM by distinguishing diffuse and direct light in canopy and evaluated the new model with observations from 159 sites. Compared with the old model, the new model has better sunny GPP and reproduced the diffuse light fertilization effect observed at flux sites. Our simulations also indicate different mechanisms causing the observed GPP enhancement under cloudy conditions at different times. The new model has the potential to study large-scale impacts of aerosol changes.
Rachel L. Tunnicliffe, Anita L. Ganesan, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Nicola Gedney, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Jošt V. Lavrič, David Walter, Matthew Rigby, Stephan Henne, Dickon Young, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13041–13067, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13041-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13041-2020, 2020
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This study quantifies Brazil’s emissions of a potent atmospheric greenhouse gas, methane. This is in the field of atmospheric modelling and uses remotely sensed data and surface measurements of methane concentrations as well as an atmospheric transport model to interpret the data. Because of Brazil’s large emissions from wetlands, agriculture and biomass burning, these emissions affect global methane concentrations and thus are of global significance.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13011–13022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, 2020
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Decadal trends and variations in OH are critical for understanding atmospheric CH4 evolution. We quantify the impacts of OH trends and variations on the CH4 budget by conducting CH4 inversions on a decadal scale with an ensemble of OH fields. We find the negative OH anomalies due to enhanced fires can reduce the optimized CH4 emissions by up to 10 Tg yr−1 during El Niño years and the positive OH trend from 1986 to 2010 results in a ∼ 23 Tg yr−1 additional increase in optimized CH4 emissions.
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
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Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
Guillaume Monteil, Grégoire Broquet, Marko Scholze, Matthew Lang, Ute Karstens, Christoph Gerbig, Frank-Thomas Koch, Naomi E. Smith, Rona L. Thompson, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Emily White, Antoon Meesters, Philippe Ciais, Anita L. Ganesan, Alistair Manning, Michael Mischurow, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Jerôme Tarniewicz, Matt Rigby, Christian Rödenbeck, Alex Vermeulen, and Evie M. Walton
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12063–12091, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12063-2020, 2020
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The paper presents the first results from the EUROCOM project, a regional atmospheric inversion intercomparison exercise involving six European research groups. It aims to produce an estimate of the net carbon flux between the European terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere for the period 2006–2015, based on constraints provided by observed CO2 concentrations and using inverse modelling techniques. The use of six different models enables us to investigate the robustness of the results.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Tokuta Yokohata, Tsuguki Kinoshita, Gen Sakurai, Yadu Pokhrel, Akihiko Ito, Masashi Okada, Yusuke Satoh, Etsushi Kato, Tomoko Nitta, Shinichiro Fujimori, Farshid Felfelani, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Toshichika Iizumi, Motoki Nishimori, Naota Hanasaki, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yoshiki Yamagata, and Seita Emori
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4713–4747, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020, 2020
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The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balances, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land-use decision-making model based on economic activities. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand.
Senna Bouabdelli, Ayoub Zeroual, Mohamed Meddi, Fateh Djelloul, and Ramdane Alkama
Proc. IAHS, 383, 315–318, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-315-2020, 2020
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The temporal evolution of drought events characteristics is discussed.
Data from observations and simulations of the regional climate model RCA4 MPI-ESM-LR under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios for the period (1941–2100) are used. An amplification of drought frequencies is projected in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum duration is expected to hardly change under the RCP8.5 scenario or even to decline.
Ramdane Alkama, Patrick C. Taylor, Lorea Garcia-San Martin, Herve Douville, Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Didier Swingedouw, and Alessandro Cescatti
The Cryosphere, 14, 2673–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2673-2020, 2020
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The amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth is believed to strongly depend on clouds. Here, we investigate this relationship using satellite data and 32 climate models, showing that this relationship holds everywhere except over polar seas, where an increased reflection by clouds corresponds to an increase in absorbed solar radiation at the surface. This interplay between clouds and sea ice reduces by half the increase of net radiation at the surface that follows the sea ice retreat.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew J. Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul B. Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray H. J. Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020
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This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of so-called SSP scenarios (the successors of the IPCC SRES and previous representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios). The projected CO2 concentrations range from 350 ppm for low-emission scenarios by 2150 to more than 2000 ppm under the high-emission scenarios. We also provide concentrations, latitudinal gradients, and seasonality for most of the other 42 considered GHGs.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Ray L. Langenfelds, Michel Ramonet, Doug Worthy, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9525–9546, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9525-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9525-2020, 2020
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The hydroxyl radical (OH), which is the dominant sink of methane (CH4), plays a key role in closing the global methane budget. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical can influence top-down estimates of CH4 emissions based on 4D Bayesian inversions with different OH fields and the same surface observations. We show that uncertainties in CH4 emissions driven by different OH fields are comparable to the uncertainties given by current bottom-up and top-down estimations.
Thomas Gasser, Léa Crepin, Yann Quilcaille, Richard A. Houghton, Philippe Ciais, and Michael Obersteiner
Biogeosciences, 17, 4075–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4075-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4075-2020, 2020
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We combine several lines of evidence to provide a robust estimate of historical CO2 emissions from land use change. Our novel approach leads to reduced uncertainty and identifies key remaining sources of uncertainty and discrepancy.
We also quantify the carbon removal by natural ecosystems that would have occurred if these ecosystems had not been destroyed (mostly via deforestation). Over the last decade, this foregone carbon sink amounted to about 50 % of the actual emissions.
Xianfeng Liu, Xiaoming Feng, Philippe Ciais, and Bojie Fu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3676, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3663-2020, 2020
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Freshwater availability is crucial for sustainable development across the Asian and eastern European regions. Our results indicate widespread decline in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the region during 2002–2017, primarily due to the intensive over-extraction of groundwater and warmth-induced surface water loss. The findings provide insights into changes in TWS and its components over the Asian and eastern European regions, where there is growing demand for food grains and water supplies.
Pierre St-Laurent, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Raymond G. Najjar, Elizabeth H. Shadwick, Hanqin Tian, and Yuanzhi Yao
Biogeosciences, 17, 3779–3796, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3779-2020, 2020
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Over the past century, estuaries have experienced global (atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature) and regional changes (river inputs, land use), but their relative impact remains poorly known. In the Chesapeake Bay, we find that global and regional changes have worked together to enhance how much atmospheric CO2 is taken up by the estuary. The increased uptake is roughly equally due to the global and regional changes, providing crucial perspective for managers of the bay's watershed.
Bo Zheng, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Yilong Wang, Jinghui Lian, and Yuanhong Zhao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8501–8510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8501-2020, 2020
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The Paris Climate Agreement requires all parties to report CO2 emissions regularly. Given the self-reporting nature of this system, it is critical to evaluate the emission reports with independent observation systems. Here we present the direct observations of city CO2 plumes from space and the quantification of CO2 emissions from these observations over the largest emitter country China. The emissions from 46 hot-spot regions representing 13 % of China's total emissions can be well constrained.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
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Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
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Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Charles D. Koven, Ryan G. Knox, Rosie A. Fisher, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Stuart J. Davies, Matteo Detto, Michael C. Dietze, Boris Faybishenko, Jennifer Holm, Maoyi Huang, Marlies Kovenock, Lara M. Kueppers, Gregory Lemieux, Elias Massoud, Nathan G. McDowell, Helene C. Muller-Landau, Jessica F. Needham, Richard J. Norby, Thomas Powell, Alistair Rogers, Shawn P. Serbin, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Charuleka Varadharajan, Anthony P. Walker, S. Joseph Wright, and Chonggang Xu
Biogeosciences, 17, 3017–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020, 2020
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Tropical forests play a crucial role in governing climate feedbacks, and are incredibly diverse ecosystems, yet most Earth system models do not take into account the diversity of plant traits in these forests and how this diversity may govern feedbacks. We present an approach to represent diverse competing plant types within Earth system models, test this approach at a tropical forest site, and explore how the representation of disturbance and competition governs traits of the forest community.
Christopher P. O. Reyer, Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez, Klara Dolos, Florian Hartig, Ylva Hauf, Matthias Noack, Petra Lasch-Born, Thomas Rötzer, Hans Pretzsch, Henning Meesenburg, Stefan Fleck, Markus Wagner, Andreas Bolte, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Pasi Kolari, Annikki Mäkelä, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Jukka Pumpanen, Alessio Collalti, Carlo Trotta, Giorgio Matteucci, Ettore D'Andrea, Lenka Foltýnová, Jan Krejza, Andreas Ibrom, Kim Pilegaard, Denis Loustau, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Paul Berbigier, Delphine Picart, Sébastien Lafont, Michael Dietze, David Cameron, Massimo Vieno, Hanqin Tian, Alicia Palacios-Orueta, Victor Cicuendez, Laura Recuero, Klaus Wiese, Matthias Büchner, Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Hyungjun Kim, Joanna A. Horemans, Friedrich Bohn, Jörg Steinkamp, Alexander Chikalanov, Graham P. Weedon, Justin Sheffield, Flurin Babst, Iliusi Vega del Valle, Felicitas Suckow, Simon Martel, Mats Mahnken, Martin Gutsch, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1295–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, 2020
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Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database provides a wide range of empirical data to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale to support systematic model intercomparisons and model development in Europe.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, Munir Hoffmann, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Marian Koch, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Xuhui Wang, Karina Williams, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2315–2336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, 2020
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Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Crop models, which represent plant biology, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate, farmer choices, and new agricultural geographies. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to evaluate and improve crop models.
Gregory Duveiller, Federico Filipponi, Sophia Walther, Philipp Köhler, Christian Frankenberg, Luis Guanter, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1101–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1101-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1101-2020, 2020
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Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence is a valuable indicator of vegetation productivity, but our capacity to measure it from space using satellite remote techniques has been hampered by a lack of spatial detail. Based on prior knowledge of how ecosystems should respond to growing conditions in some modelling along with ancillary satellite observations, we provide here a new enhanced dataset with higher spatial resolution that better represents the spatial patterns of vegetation growth over land.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Philippe Ciais, Francesco N. Tubiello, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Adrian Leip, Gema Carmona-Garcia, Wilfried Winiwarter, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Dirk Günther, Efisio Solazzo, Anja Kiesow, Ana Bastos, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Giulia Conchedda, Roberto Pilli, Robbie M. Andrew, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, and Albertus J. Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 961–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, 2020
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up GHG anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the EU28. The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models, aiming at reconciling GHG budgets with official country-level UNFCCC inventories. We provide comprehensive emission assessments in support to policy, facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Barbara Marcolla, Mirco Migliavacca, Christian Rödenbeck, and Alessandro Cescatti
Biogeosciences, 17, 2365–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2365-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2365-2020, 2020
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This work investigates the sensitivity of terrestrial CO2 fluxes to climate drivers. We observed that CO2 flux is mostly controlled by temperature during the growing season and by radiation off season. We also observe that radiation importance is increasing over time while sensitivity to temperature is decreasing in Eurasia. Ultimately this analysis shows that ecosystem response to climate is changing, with potential repercussions for future terrestrial sink and land role in climate mitigation.
Yidi Xu, Le Yu, Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Yuqi Cheng, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 847–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-847-2020, 2020
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The first annual oil palm area dataset (AOPD) for Malaysia and Indonesia from 2001 to 2016 was produced by integrating multiple satellite datasets and a change-detection algorithm (BFAST). This dataset reveals that oil palm plantations have expanded from 5.69 to 19.05 M ha in the two countries during the past 16 years. The AOPD is useful in understanding the deforestation process in Southeast Asia and may serve as land-use change inputs in dynamic global vegetation models.
Didier G. Leibovici, Shaun Quegan, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Maria Val Martin, Mathieu Guimberteau, Arsène Druel, Dan Zhu, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences, 17, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020, 2020
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Analysing the impact of environmental changes due to climate change, e.g. geographical spread of climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) and agriculture crop modelling, may require land surface modelling (LSM) to predict future land surface conditions. There are multiple LSMs to choose from. The paper proposes a multivariate spatio-temporal data science method to understand the inherent uncertainties in four LSMs and the variations between them in Nordic areas for the net primary production.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren, Alexander Popp, Almut Arneth, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Jonathan Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Anna B. Harper, Taejin Park, David Makowski, Petr Havlik, Michael Obersteiner, Jingmeng Wang, Andreas Krause, and Wenfeng Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 789–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, 2020
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We generated spatially explicit bioenergy crop yields based on field measurements with climate, soil condition and remote-sensing variables as explanatory variables and the machine-learning method. We further compared our yield maps with the maps from three integrated assessment models (IAMs; IMAGE, MAgPIE and GLOBIOM) and found that the median yields in our maps are > 50 % higher than those in the IAM maps.
Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, 2020
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We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
Shufen Pan, Naiqing Pan, Hanqin Tian, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Hao Shi, Vivek K. Arora, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Catherine Ottlé, Benjamin Poulter, Sönke Zaehle, and Steven W. Running
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, 2020
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Evapotranspiration (ET) links global water, carbon and energy cycles. We used 4 remote sensing models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 land surface models to analyze the changes in global terrestrial ET. These three categories of approaches agreed well in terms of ET intensity. For 1982–2011, all models showed that Earth greening enhanced terrestrial ET. The small interannual variability of global terrestrial ET suggests it has a potential planetary boundary of around 600 mm yr-1.
Cheng Gong, Yadong Lei, Yimian Ma, Xu Yue, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3841–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3841-2020, 2020
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We evaluate ozone–vegetation feedback using a fully coupled chemistry–carbon–climate global model (ModelE2-YIBs). Ozone damage to photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and isoprene emissions parameterized by different schemes and sensitivities is jointly considered. In general, surface ozone concentrations are increased due to ozone–vegetation interactions, especially over the regions with a high ambient ozone level such as the eastern US, eastern China, and western Europe.
Chris R. Flechard, Andreas Ibrom, Ute M. Skiba, Wim de Vries, Marcel van Oijen, David R. Cameron, Nancy B. Dise, Janne F. J. Korhonen, Nina Buchmann, Arnaud Legout, David Simpson, Maria J. Sanz, Marc Aubinet, Denis Loustau, Leonardo Montagnani, Johan Neirynck, Ivan A. Janssens, Mari Pihlatie, Ralf Kiese, Jan Siemens, André-Jean Francez, Jürgen Augustin, Andrej Varlagin, Janusz Olejnik, Radosław Juszczak, Mika Aurela, Daniel Berveiller, Bogdan H. Chojnicki, Ulrich Dämmgen, Nicolas Delpierre, Vesna Djuricic, Julia Drewer, Eric Dufrêne, Werner Eugster, Yannick Fauvel, David Fowler, Arnoud Frumau, André Granier, Patrick Gross, Yannick Hamon, Carole Helfter, Arjan Hensen, László Horváth, Barbara Kitzler, Bart Kruijt, Werner L. Kutsch, Raquel Lobo-do-Vale, Annalea Lohila, Bernard Longdoz, Michal V. Marek, Giorgio Matteucci, Marta Mitosinkova, Virginie Moreaux, Albrecht Neftel, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Kim Pilegaard, Gabriel Pita, Francisco Sanz, Jan K. Schjoerring, Maria-Teresa Sebastià, Y. Sim Tang, Hilde Uggerud, Marek Urbaniak, Netty van Dijk, Timo Vesala, Sonja Vidic, Caroline Vincke, Tamás Weidinger, Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Eiko Nemitz, and Mark A. Sutton
Biogeosciences, 17, 1583–1620, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1583-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1583-2020, 2020
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Experimental evidence from a network of 40 monitoring sites in Europe suggests that atmospheric nitrogen deposition to forests and other semi-natural vegetation impacts the carbon sequestration rates in ecosystems, as well as the net greenhouse gas balance including other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and methane. Excess nitrogen deposition in polluted areas also leads to other environmental impacts such as nitrogen leaching to groundwater and other pollutant gaseous emissions.
Chris R. Flechard, Marcel van Oijen, David R. Cameron, Wim de Vries, Andreas Ibrom, Nina Buchmann, Nancy B. Dise, Ivan A. Janssens, Johan Neirynck, Leonardo Montagnani, Andrej Varlagin, Denis Loustau, Arnaud Legout, Klaudia Ziemblińska, Marc Aubinet, Mika Aurela, Bogdan H. Chojnicki, Julia Drewer, Werner Eugster, André-Jean Francez, Radosław Juszczak, Barbara Kitzler, Werner L. Kutsch, Annalea Lohila, Bernard Longdoz, Giorgio Matteucci, Virginie Moreaux, Albrecht Neftel, Janusz Olejnik, Maria J. Sanz, Jan Siemens, Timo Vesala, Caroline Vincke, Eiko Nemitz, Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Ute M. Skiba, and Mark A. Sutton
Biogeosciences, 17, 1621–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1621-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1621-2020, 2020
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Nitrogen deposition from the atmosphere to unfertilized terrestrial vegetation such as forests can increase carbon dioxide uptake and favour carbon sequestration by ecosystems. However the data from observational networks are difficult to interpret in terms of a carbon-to-nitrogen response, because there are a number of other confounding factors, such as climate, soil physical properties and fertility, and forest age. We propose a model-based method to untangle the different influences.
Victoria Naipal, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, and Yilong Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1201–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1201-2020, 2020
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In this study we present the Carbon Erosion DYNAMics model (CE-DYNAM) that links sediment dynamics resulting from water erosion with the soil carbon cycle along a cascade of hillslopes, floodplains, and rivers. The model can simulate the removal of soil and carbon from eroding areas and their destination at regional scale. We calibrated and validated the model for the Rhine catchment, and we show that soil erosion is a potential large net carbon sink over the period 1850–2005.
Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabian Gans, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Philipp Köhler, Kazuhito Ichii, Atul K. Jain, Junzhi Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Jacob A. Nelson, Michael O'Sullivan, Martijn Pallandt, Dario Papale, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Christian Rödenbeck, Stephen Sitch, Gianluca Tramontana, Anthony Walker, Ulrich Weber, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020
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We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystem’s mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.
Yadong Lei, Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Cheng Gong, and Lin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1137–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1137-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1137-2020, 2020
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We coupled a dynamic vegetation model YIBs with the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to develop a new tool for studying interactions between atmospheric chemistry and biosphere. Within this framework, leaf area index and stomatal conductance are predicted for chemical simulations. In turn, surface ozone causes negative impacts to plant growth and the consequent dry deposition. Such interactions are important for air pollution prediction but ignored in most of current chemical models.
Binghao Jia, Xin Luo, Ximing Cai, Atul Jain, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Zhenghui Xie, Ning Zeng, Jiafu Mao, Xiaoying Shi, Akihiko Ito, Yaxing Wei, Hanqin Tian, Benjamin Poulter, Dan Hayes, and Kevin Schaefer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 235–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020, 2020
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We quantitatively examined the relative contributions of climate change, land
use and land cover change, and elevated CO2 to interannual variations and seasonal cycle amplitude of gross primary productivity (GPP) in China based on multi-model ensemble simulations. The contributions of major subregions to the temporal change in China's total GPP are also presented. This work may help us better understand GPP spatiotemporal patterns and their responses to regional changes and human activities.
Xu Yue, Hong Liao, Huijun Wang, Tianyi Zhang, Nadine Unger, Stephen Sitch, Zhaozhong Feng, and Jia Yang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2353–2366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2353-2020, 2020
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We explore ecosystem responses in China to 1.5 °C global warming under stabilized versus transient pathways. Remarkably, GPP shows 30 % higher enhancement in the stabilized than the transient pathway because of the lower ozone (smaller damages to photosynthesis) and fewer aerosols (higher light availability) in the former pathway. Our analyses suggest that an associated reduction of CO2 and pollution emissions brings more benefits to ecosystems in China via 1.5 °C global warming.
Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Pierre Regnier, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 507–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, 2020
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In this second part of the study, we performed simulations of the carbon and water budget of the Lena catchment with the land surface model ORCHIDEE MICT-LEAK, enabled to simulate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production in soils and its transport and fate in high-latitude inland waters. We compare simulations using this model to existing data sources to show that it is capable of reproducing dissolved carbon fluxes of potentially great importance for the future of the global permafrost.
Giovanni Forzieri, Matteo Pecchi, Marco Girardello, Achille Mauri, Marcus Klaus, Christo Nikolov, Marius Rüetschi, Barry Gardiner, Julián Tomaštík, David Small, Constantin Nistor, Donatas Jonikavicius, Jonathan Spinoni, Luc Feyen, Francesca Giannetti, Rinaldo Comino, Alessandro Wolynski, Francesco Pirotti, Fabio Maistrelli, Ionut Savulescu, Stéphanie Wurpillot-Lucas, Stefan Karlsson, Karolina Zieba-Kulawik, Paulina Strejczek-Jazwinska, Martin Mokroš, Stefan Franz, Lukas Krejci, Ionel Haidu, Mats Nilsson, Piotr Wezyk, Filippo Catani, Yi-Ying Chen, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Gherardo Chirici, Alessandro Cescatti, and Pieter S. A. Beck
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 257–276, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-257-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-257-2020, 2020
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Strong winds may uproot and break trees and represent a risk for forests. Despite the importance of this natural disturbance and possible intensification in view of climate change, spatial information about wind-related impacts is currently missing on a pan-European scale. We present a new database of wind disturbances in European forests comprised of more than 80 000 records over the period 2000–2018. Our database is a unique spatial source for the study of forest disturbances at large scales.
Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Kim Naudts, and Julia Pongratz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 185–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-185-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-185-2020, 2020
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Models need to account for forest age structures when investigating land use influences on land–atmosphere feedbacks. We present a consolidated scheme to introduce forest age classes, combining age-dependent simulations of important processes with the possibility to trace forest age, and describe its implementation in JSBACH4, the land surface model of the ICON Earth system model. We evaluate simulations with and without age classes demonstrating the benefit of forest age classes in JSBACH4.
Yufei Zou, Yuhang Wang, Yun Qian, Hanqin Tian, Jia Yang, and Ernesto Alvarado
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 995–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-995-2020, 2020
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Fire is a natural phenomenon that has a long history of interactions with the environment and human activity. The complex interactions were less represented in previous fire and climate models. Here we use a new global fire model with improved modeling capability to study how fire responds and contributes to climate change. The modeling results show increased global fire activity in the future driven by climate change, which in turn modulates local and remote climate and ecosystems.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Jinghui Lian, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, T. Scott Zaccheo, Jeremy Dobler, Michel Ramonet, Johannes Staufer, Diego Santaren, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13809–13825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13809-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13809-2019, 2019
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CO2 emissions within urban areas impact nearby and downwind concentrations. A different system, based on bi-wavelength laser measurements, has been deployed over Paris. It samples CO2 concentrations along horizontal lines, between a transceiver and a reflector. In this paper, we analyze the measurements provided by this system, together with the more classical in situ sampling and high-resolution modeling. We focus on the temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
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The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
Stefanie Falk and Amund Søvde Haslerud
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4705–4728, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4705-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4705-2019, 2019
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High concentrations of ozone in ambient air are hazardous to the whole ecosystem. The impact of ozone-induced damage on vegetation and agricultural plants in combination with advancing climate change may affect food security in the future. The process of dry deposition is important for predicting and understanding the observed surface ozone concentrations. We have updated the dry deposition scheme in Oslo CTM3 to a more process-based parameterization and assess the effect on modeled ozone.
Sajeev Philip, Matthew S. Johnson, Christopher Potter, Vanessa Genovesse, David F. Baker, Katherine D. Haynes, Daven K. Henze, Junjie Liu, and Benjamin Poulter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13267–13287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13267-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13267-2019, 2019
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This research was conducted to quantify the impact of different prior global biosphere models on the estimate of terrestrial CO2 fluxes when assimilating Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite observations. To determine the prior model impact, we apply observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Even with the substantial spatiotemporal coverage of OCO-2 data, residual differences in posterior CO2 flux estimates remain due to the choice of prior flux mean and uncertainties.
Fang Li, Maria Val Martin, Meinrat O. Andreae, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gitta Lasslop, Chao Yue, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Erik Kluzek, Xiaohong Liu, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Daniel S. Ward, Anton Darmenov, Thomas Hickler, Charles Ichoku, Brian I. Magi, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Christine Wiedinmyer, and Sam S. Rabin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019
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Fire emissions are critical for atmospheric composition, climate, carbon cycle, and air quality. We provide the first global multi-model fire emission reconstructions for 1700–2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols, based on the nine state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in FireMIP. We also provide information on the recent status and limitations of the model-based reconstructions and identify the main uncertainty sources in their long-term changes.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
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This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Fabienne Maignan, Yi Yin, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep Peñuelas, Shilong L. Piao, Stephen Sitch, William K. Smith, Xuhui Wang, Zaichun Zhu, Vanessa Haverd, Etsushi Kato, Atul K. Jain, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, and Dan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12361–12375, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, 2019
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Here we show that land-surface models improved their ability to simulate the increase in the amplitude of seasonal CO2-cycle exchange (SCANBP) by ecosystems compared to estimates by two atmospheric inversions. We find a dominant role of vegetation growth over boreal Eurasia to the observed increase in SCANBP, strongly driven by CO2 fertilization, and an overall negative effect of temperature on SCANBP. Biases can be explained by the sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature.
Elias C. Massoud, Chonggang Xu, Rosie A. Fisher, Ryan G. Knox, Anthony P. Walker, Shawn P. Serbin, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Jennifer A. Holm, Lara M. Kueppers, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Liang Wei, Daniel J. Johnson, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Charlie D. Koven, Nate G. McDowell, and Jasper A. Vrugt
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4133–4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4133-2019, 2019
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We conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to understand behaviors of a demographic vegetation model within a land surface model. By running the model 5000 times with changing input parameter values, we found that (1) the photosynthetic capacity controls carbon fluxes, (2) the allometry is important for tree growth, and (3) the targeted carbon storage is important for tree survival. These results can provide guidance on improved model parameterization for a better fit to observations.
Jarmo Mäkelä, Jürgen Knauer, Mika Aurela, Andrew Black, Martin Heimann, Hideki Kobayashi, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Hank Margolis, Tiina Markkanen, Jouni Susiluoto, Tea Thum, Toni Viskari, Sönke Zaehle, and Tuula Aalto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4075–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4075-2019, 2019
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We assess the differences of six stomatal conductance formulations, embedded into a land–vegetation model JSBACH, on 10 boreal coniferous evergreen forest sites. We calibrate the model parameters using all six functions in a multi-year experiment, as well as for a separate drought event at one of the sites, using the adaptive population importance sampler. The analysis reveals weaknesses in the stomatal conductance formulation-dependent model behaviour that we are able to partially amend.
Bo Zheng, Frederic Chevallier, Yi Yin, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Merritt N. Deeter, Robert J. Parker, Yilong Wang, Helen M. Worden, and Yuanhong Zhao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1411–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1411-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1411-2019, 2019
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We use a multi-species atmospheric Bayesian inversion approach to attribute satellite-observed atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) variations to its sources and sinks in order to achieve a full closure of the global CO budget during 2000–2017. We identify a declining trend in the global CO budget since 2000, driven by reduced anthropogenic emissions in the US, Europe, and China, as well as by reduced biomass burning emissions globally, especially in equatorial Africa.
Bruno Ringeval, Marko Kvakić, Laurent Augusto, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Christoph Müller, Thomas Nesme, Nicolas Vuichard, Xuhui Wang, and Sylvain Pellerin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-298, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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Crossed fertilization additions lead to the definition of nutrient interaction categories. However, the implications of such categories in terms of nutrient interaction modeling are not clear. We developed a theoretical analysis of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization experiments, then applied it to current estimates of nutrient limitation in cropland. We found that a true co-limitation could affect up to 42 % of the global maize area when using a given formalism of nutrient interaction.
Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, 2019
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Few Earth system models represent permafrost soil biogeochemistry, contributing to uncertainty in estimating its response and that of the planet to warming. Because the permafrost contains over double the carbon in the present atmosphere, its fate as it is
unlockedby warming is globally significant. One way it can be mobilised is into rivers, the sea, or the atmosphere: a vector previously ignored in climate modelling. We present a model scheme for resolving this vector at a global scale.
Johannes Winckler, Christian H. Reick, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Alessandro Cescatti, Paul C. Stoy, Quentin Lejeune, Thomas Raddatz, Andreas Chlond, Marvin Heidkamp, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 473–484, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-473-2019, 2019
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For local living conditions, it matters whether deforestation influences the surface temperature, temperature at 2 m, or the temperature higher up in the atmosphere. Here, simulations with a climate model show that at a location of deforestation, surface temperature generally changes more strongly than atmospheric temperature. Comparison across climate models shows that both for summer and winter the surface temperature response exceeds the air temperature response locally by a factor of 2.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Adam Hastie
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2961–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, 2019
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We present a model that can simulate the dynamics of peatland area extent and the vertical buildup of peat. The model is validated across a range of northern peatland sites and over the Northern Hemisphere (> 30° N). It is able to reproduce the spatial extent of northern peatlands and peat carbon accumulation over the Holocene.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Mingkai Jiang, Sönke Zaehle, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anthony P. Walker, Silvia Caldararu, David S. Ellsworth, and Belinda E. Medlyn
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2069–2089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2069-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2069-2019, 2019
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Here we used a simple analytical framework developed by Comins and McMurtrie (1993) to investigate how different model assumptions affected plant responses to elevated CO2. This framework is useful in revealing both the consequences and the mechanisms through which different assumptions affect predictions. We therefore recommend the use of this framework to analyze the likely outcomes of new assumptions before introducing them to complex model structures.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Tomohiro Oda, Franck Lespinas, Yasjka Meijer, Armin Loescher, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Bo Zheng, Haoran Xu, Shu Tao, Kevin R. Gurney, Geoffrey Roest, Diego Santaren, and Yongxian Su
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 687–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-687-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-687-2019, 2019
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We address the question of the global characterization of fossil fuel CO2 emission hotspots that may cause coherent XCO2 plumes in space-borne CO2 images, based on the ODIAC global high-resolution 1 km fossil fuel emission data product. For space imagery with 0.5 ppm precision for a single XCO2 measurement, a total of 11 314 hotspots are identified, covering 72 % of the global emissions. These hotspots define the targets for the purpose of monitoring fossil fuel CO2 emissions from space.
Emmanuel Arzoumanian, Felix R. Vogel, Ana Bastos, Bakhram Gaynullin, Olivier Laurent, Michel Ramonet, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2665–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2665-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2665-2019, 2019
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We tested commercial lower-cost CO2 sensors in laboratory and field studies to see if they can measure atmospheric CO2 mole fractions with less than 1 ppm bias (with monthly calibration), to allow continuous urban CO2 monitoring.
We find that the sensors' CO2 readings are influenced by temperature, atmospheric pressure and water vapour content, but this can be corrected for by adding sensors (T, p, RH) and carefully calibrating each sensor against a high-precision instrument.
Leonardo Calle, Benjamin Poulter, and Prabir K. Patra
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2611–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2611-2019, 2019
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Satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide offer extraordinary insights into terrestrial ecosystem activity on Earth. The algorithm we present provides researchers with a great deal more information from these satellite data than has been available in the past. We hope the application of this algorithm and analyses tools provides insight into atmospheric dynamics of carbon dioxide and helps inform the development of global ecosystem models in the future.
Felix R. Vogel, Matthias Frey, Johannes Staufer, Frank Hase, Grégoire Broquet, Irène Xueref-Remy, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Mahesh Kumar Sha, Pascale Chelin, Pascal Jeseck, Christof Janssen, Yao Té, Jochen Groß, Thomas Blumenstock, Qiansi Tu, and Johannes Orphal
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 3271–3285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-3271-2019, 2019
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Providing timely information on greenhouse gas emissions to stakeholders at sub-national scale is an emerging challenge and understanding urban CO2 levels is one key aspect. This study uses atmospheric observations of total column CO2 and compares them to numerical simulations to investigate CO2 levels in the Paris metropolitan area due to natural fluxes and anthropogenic emissions. Our measurements reveal the influence of locally added CO2, which our model is also able to predict.
Rongting Xu, Hanqin Tian, Shufen Pan, Shree R. S. Dangal, Jian Chen, Jinfeng Chang, Yonglong Lu, Ute Maria Skiba, Francesco N. Tubiello, and Bowen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 175–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-175-2019, 2019
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We provide three gridded datasets of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer and manure N inputs in global pastures and rangelands at a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° for the period 1860–2016 (i.e., annual manure N deposition (by grazing animals) rate, synthetic N fertilizer use rate and manure N application rate). These three datasets could fill data gaps of N inputs in global and regional grasslands and serve as input drivers for earth system models.
Florent F. Malavelle, Jim M. Haywood, Lina M. Mercado, Gerd A. Folberth, Nicolas Bellouin, Stephen Sitch, and Paulo Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 1301–1326, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019, 2019
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Diffuse light can increase the efficiency of vegetation photosynthesis. Diffuse light results from scattering by either clouds or aerosols in the atmosphere. During the dry season biomass burning (BB) on the edges of the Amazon rainforest contributes significantly to the aerosol burden over the entire region. We show that despite a modest effect of change in light conditions, the overall impact of BB aerosols on the vegetation is still important when indirect climate feedbacks are considered.
Rasoul Yousefpour, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 16, 241–254, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-241-2019, 2019
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Global forest resources are accounted for to establish their potential to sink carbon in woody biomass. Climate prediction models realize the effects of future global forest utilization rates, defined by population demand and its evolution over time. However, forest management approaches consider the supply side to realize a sustainable forest carbon stock and adapt the harvest rates to novel climate conditions. This study simulates such an adaptive sustained
yield approach.
Pierre Laurent, Florent Mouillot, Maria Vanesa Moreno, Chao Yue, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences, 16, 275–288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-275-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-275-2019, 2019
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Fire propagation and fire size are usually considered to be proportional to fire intensity. We used a global database of fire patch size and fire radiative power, used as a proxy of fire intensity, to test this relationship at a global scale. We showed that in some regions fire size tends to saturate when a regional fire intensity threshold is reached. We concluded that increasing landscape fragmentation limits fire propagation and this effect should be accounted for in global fire modules.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
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Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Anja Rammig, Jens Heinke, Florian Hofhansl, Hans Verbeeck, Timothy R. Baker, Bradley Christoffersen, Philippe Ciais, Hannes De Deurwaerder, Katrin Fleischer, David Galbraith, Matthieu Guimberteau, Andreas Huth, Michelle Johnson, Bart Krujit, Fanny Langerwisch, Patrick Meir, Phillip Papastefanou, Gilvan Sampaio, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso von Randow, Christian Zang, and Edna Rödig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5203–5215, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5203-2018, 2018
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We propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products. We provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty in ecosystem variables. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Haicheng Zhang, Daniel S. Goll, Stefano Manzoni, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, and Yuanyuan Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4779–4796, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4779-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4779-2018, 2018
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Carbon use efficiency (CUE) of decomposers depends strongly on the organic matter quality (C : N ratio) and soil nutrient availability rather than a fixed value. A soil biogeochemical model with flexible CUE can better capture the differences in respiration rate of litter with contrasting C : N ratios and under different levels of mineral N availability than the model with fixed CUE, and well represent the effect of varying litter quality (N content) on SOM formation across temporal scales.
HyeJin Kim, Isabel M. D. Rosa, Rob Alkemade, Paul Leadley, George Hurtt, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Emma Caton, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Adriana De Palma, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Felipe Espinoza, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Ricardo E. Gonzalez, Maya Gueguen, Carlos Guerra, Mike Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Ines S. Martins, Tetsuya Matsui, Cory Merow, Michael Obersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Richard Sharp, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, and Henrique M. Pereira
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4537–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, 2018
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This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based Intercomparison of Models (BES-SIM) that projects the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century. BES-SIM uses harmonized scenarios and input data and a set of common output metrics at multiple scales, and identifies model uncertainties and research gaps.
Zun Yin, Catherine Ottlé, Philippe Ciais, Matthieu Guimberteau, Xuhui Wang, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Jan Polcher, Feng Zhou, Hyungjun Kim, and other China-Trend-Stream project members
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5463–5484, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5463-2018, 2018
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Simulations in China were performed in ORCHIDEE driven by different forcing datasets: GSWP3, PGF, CRU-NCEP, and WFDEI. Simulated soil moisture was compared to several datasets to evaluate the ability of ORCHIDEE in reproducing soil moisture dynamics. Results showed that ORCHIDEE soil moisture coincided well with other datasets in wet areas and in non-irrigated areas. It suggested that the ORCHIDEE-MICT was suitable for further hydrological studies in China.
Igor B. Konovalov, Daria A. Lvova, Matthias Beekmann, Hiren Jethva, Eugene F. Mikhailov, Jean-Daniel Paris, Boris D. Belan, Valerii S. Kozlov, Philippe Ciais, and Meinrat O. Andreae
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14889–14924, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14889-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14889-2018, 2018
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A good knowledge of black carbon (BC) emissions from open biomass burning (BB) is an important prerequisite for reliable climate predictions, especially in the Arctic. This paper introduces a method to constrain a regional budget of BB BC emissions using satellite measurements of the absorption and extinction optical depths and evaluates its potential application in a large Siberian region.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Martin Hirschi, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1217–1234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1217-2018, 2018
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Changing amounts of water in the soil can have a strong impact on atmospheric temperatures. We present a theoretical approach that can be used to quantify the effect that soil moisture has on temperature and validate it using climate model simulations in which soil moisture is prescribed. This theoretical approach also allows us to study the soil moisture effect on temperature in standard climate models, even if they do not provide dedicated soil moisture simulations.
Yilong Wang, Philippe Ciais, Daniel Goll, Yuanyuan Huang, Yiqi Luo, Ying-Ping Wang, A. Anthony Bloom, Grégoire Broquet, Jens Hartmann, Shushi Peng, Josep Penuelas, Shilong Piao, Jordi Sardans, Benjamin D. Stocker, Rong Wang, Sönke Zaehle, and Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3903–3928, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3903-2018, 2018
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We present a new modeling framework called Global Observation-based Land-ecosystems Utilization Model of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (GOLUM-CNP) that combines a data-constrained C-cycle analysis with data-driven estimates of N and P inputs and losses and with observed stoichiometric ratios. GOLUM-CNP provides a traceable tool, where a consistency between different datasets of global C, N, and P cycles has been achieved.
Eunjee Lee, Fan-Wei Zeng, Randal D. Koster, Brad Weir, Lesley E. Ott, and Benjamin Poulter
Biogeosciences, 15, 5635–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5635-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5635-2018, 2018
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Land carbon fluxes are controlled in part by the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric conditions near the Earth's surface. This study offers a comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of multiple facets of spatiotemporal variability in atmospheric CO2 for carbon cycle dynamics. Globally, consideration of the diurnal CO2 variability reduces the gross primary production and net land carbon uptake. The relative contributions of other variability vary regionally and seasonally.
Chris Huntingford, Rebecca J. Oliver, Lina M. Mercado, and Stephen Sitch
Biogeosciences, 15, 5415–5422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5415-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5415-2018, 2018
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Raised ozone levels impact plant stomatal opening and thus photosynthesis. Most models describe this as a suppression of stomata opening. Field evidence suggests more complexity, as ozone damage may make stomatal response
sluggish. In some circumstances, this causes stomata to be more open – a concern during drought conditions – by increasing transpiration. To guide interpretation and modelling of field measurements, we present an equation for sluggish effects, via a single tau parameter.
Thomas Wutzler, Antje Lucas-Moffat, Mirco Migliavacca, Jürgen Knauer, Kerstin Sickel, Ladislav Šigut, Olaf Menzer, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 15, 5015–5030, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5015-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5015-2018, 2018
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Net fluxes of carbon dioxide at the ecosystem level measured by eddy covariance are a main source for understanding biosphere–atmosphere interactions. However, there is a need for more usable and extensible tools for post-processing steps of the half-hourly flux data. Therefore, we developed the REddyProc package, providing data filtering, gap filling, and flux partitioning. The extensible functions are compatible with state-of-the-art tools but allow easier integration in extended analysis.
Chloé Largeron, Gerhard Krinner, Philippe Ciais, and Claire Brutel-Vuilmet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3279–3297, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3279-2018, 2018
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Peatlands are widely present in boreal regions and contain large carbon stocks due to their hydrologic properties and high water content. We have enhanced the global land surface model ORCHIDEE by introducing boreal peatlands. These are considered as a new type of vegetation in the model, with specific hydrological properties for peat soil. In this paper, we focus on the representation of the hydrology of northern peatlands and on the evaluation of the hydrological impact of this implementation.
Anthony P. Walker, Ming Ye, Dan Lu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Lianhong Gu, Belinda E. Medlyn, Alistair Rogers, and Shawn P. Serbin
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3159–3185, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3159-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3159-2018, 2018
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Large uncertainty is inherent in model predictions due to imperfect knowledge of how to describe the processes that a model is intended to represent. Yet methods to quantify and evaluate this model hypothesis uncertainty are limited. To address this, the multi-assumption architecture and testbed (MAAT) automates the generation of all possible models by combining multiple representations of multiple processes. MAAT provides a formal framework for quantification of model hypothesis uncertainty.
Vanessa Haverd, Benjamin Smith, Lars Nieradzik, Peter R. Briggs, William Woodgate, Cathy M. Trudinger, Josep G. Canadell, and Matthias Cuntz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2995–3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, 2018
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CABLE is a terrestrial biosphere model that can be applied stand-alone and provides for land surface–atmosphere exchange within a climate model. We extend CABLE for regional and global carbon–climate simulations, accounting for land use and land cover change mediated by tree demography. A novel algorithm to simulate the coordination of rate-limiting photosynthetic processes is also implemented. Simulations satisfy multiple observational constraints on the global land carbon cycle.
Victoria Naipal, Philippe Ciais, Yilong Wang, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, and Kristof Van Oost
Biogeosciences, 15, 4459–4480, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4459-2018, 2018
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We seek to better understand the links between soil erosion by rainfall and the global carbon (C) cycle by coupling a soil erosion model to the C cycle of a land surface model. With this modeling approach we evaluate the effects of soil removal on soil C stocks in the presence of climate change and land use change. We find that accelerated soil erosion leads to a potential SOC removal flux of 74 ±18 Pg of C globally over the period AD 1850–2005, with significant impacts on the land C balance.
Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Meirong Wang, Fei Jiang, Jingming Chen, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Ziqiang Jiang, Weimin Ju, Sebastian Lienert, Julia Nabel, Stephen Sitch, Nicolas Viovy, Hengmao Wang, and Andrew J. Wiltshire
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10333–10345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, 2018
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Based on the Mauna Loa CO2 records and TRENDY multi-model historical simulations, we investigate the different impacts of EP and CP El Niños on interannual carbon cycle variability. Composite analysis indicates that the evolutions of CO2 growth rate anomalies have three clear differences in terms of precursors (negative and neutral), amplitudes (strong and weak), and durations of peak (Dec–Apr and Oct–Jan) during EP and CP El Niños, respectively. We further discuss their terrestrial mechanisms.
Emilie Joetzjer, Fabienne Maignan, Jérôme Chave, Daniel Goll, Ben Poulter, Jonathan Barichivich, Isabelle Maréchaux, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Matthieu Guimberteau, Kim Naudts, Damien Bonal, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-308, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This study explores the relative contributions of tree demographic, canopy structure and hydraulic processes on the Amazonian carbon and water cycles using large-scale process-based model. Our results imply that explicit coupling of the water and carbon cycles improves the representation of biogeochemical cycles and their spatial variability. Representing the variation in the ecological functioning of Amazonia should be the next step to improve the performance and predictive ability of models.
Rebecca J. Oliver, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, David Simpson, Belinda E. Medlyn, Yan-Shih Lin, and Gerd A. Folberth
Biogeosciences, 15, 4245–4269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4245-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4245-2018, 2018
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Potential gains in terrestrial carbon sequestration over Europe from elevated CO2 can be partially offset by concurrent rises in tropospheric O3. The land surface model JULES was run in a factorial suite of experiments showing that by 2050 simulated GPP was reduced by 4 to 9 % due to plant O3 damage. Large regional variations exist with larger impacts identified for temperate compared to boreal regions. Plant O3 damage was greatest over the twentieth century and declined into the future.
Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, Karina Williams, and Carolina Duran-Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2857–2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, 2018
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Dynamic global vegetation models are used for studying historical and future changes to vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle. JULES is a DGVM that represents the land surface in the UK Earth System Model. We compared simulated gross and net primary productivity of vegetation, vegetation distribution, and aspects of the transient carbon cycle to observational datasets. JULES was able to accurately reproduce many aspects of the terrestrial carbon cycle with the recent improvements.
Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Eddy Robertson, Wei Li, Goran Georgievski, Peter Lawrence, Andy Wiltshire, Philippe Ciais, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Almut Arneth, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, 2018
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Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's surface can alter the local energy balance, which can result in a local warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location, as well as on the background climate. While models can theoretically simulate these effects, their skill is not well documented across space and time. Here we provide a dedicated framework to evaluate such models against measurements derived from satellite observations.
Xin Lin, Philippe Ciais, Philippe Bousquet, Michel Ramonet, Yi Yin, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Marc Delmotte, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Nuggehalli K. Indira, Robin Locatelli, Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Marielle Saunois, Panangady S. Swathi, Rong Wang, Camille Yver-Kwok, Yogesh K. Tiwari, and Lingxi Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9475–9497, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9475-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9475-2018, 2018
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We simulate CH4 and CO2 using a zoomed global transport model with a horizontal resolution of ~50 km over South and East Asia, as well as a standard model version for comparison. Model performance is evaluated for both gases and versions at multiple timescales against a new collection of surface stations over this key GHG-emitting region. The evaluation at different timescales and comparisons between gases and model versions have implications for possible model improvements and inversions.
Wei Li, Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Daniel Goll, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, and Albert Jornet-Puig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2249–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2249-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2249-2018, 2018
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We implemented four major lignocellulosic bioenergy crops in ORCHIDEE. We added new PFTs, did new parameterizations of photosynthesis, carbon allocation, and phenology based on a compilation of field measurements, and added a specific harvest module. The resulting ORCHIDEE-MICT-BIOENERGY model is evaluated at 296 locations where field measurements of harvested biomass are available, and the new model can generally reproduce the global bioenergy crop yield observations.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
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Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Ye Huang, Bertrand Guenet, Philippe Ciais, Ivan A. Janssens, Jennifer L. Soong, Yilong Wang, Daniel Goll, Evgenia Blagodatskaya, and Yuanyuan Huang
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2111–2138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018, 2018
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ORCHIMIC is a modeling effort trying to improve the representation of SOC dynamics in Earth system models (ESM). It has a structure that can be easily incorporated into CENTURY-based ESMs. In ORCHIMIC, key microbial dynamics (i.e., enzyme production, enzymatic decomposition and microbial dormancy) are included. The ORCHIMIC model can also reproduce the observed temporal dynamics of respiration and priming effects; thus it is an improved tool for climate projections and SOC response predictions.
Steven J. Lade, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, John M. Anderies, Christian Beer, Sarah E. Cornell, Thomas Gasser, Jon Norberg, Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockström, and Will Steffen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, 2018
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Around half of the carbon that humans emit into the atmosphere each year is taken up on land (by trees) and in the ocean (by absorption). We construct a simple model of carbon uptake that, unlike the complex models that are usually used, can be analysed mathematically. Our results include that changes in atmospheric carbon may affect future carbon uptake more than changes in climate. Our simple model could also study mechanisms that are currently too uncertain for complex models.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, Hester Biemans, Matthias Forkel, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Jonas Jägermeyr, Jürgen Knauer, Fanny Langerwisch, Wolfgang Lucht, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018
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Here we provide a comprehensive model description of a global terrestrial biosphere model, named LPJmL4, incorporating the carbon and water cycle and the quantification of agricultural production. The model allows for the consistent and joint quantification of climate and land use change impacts on the biosphere. The model represents the key ecosystem functions, but also the influence of humans on the biosphere. It comes with an evaluation paper to demonstrate the credibility of LPJmL4.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Matthias Forkel, Christoph Müller, Jürgen Knauer, Werner von Bloh, Dieter Gerten, Jonas Jägermeyr, Wolfgang Lucht, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1377–1403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1377-2018, 2018
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Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the now launched version 4.0 of the LPJmL biosphere, water, and agricultural model. The article is the second part to a comprehensive description of the LPJmL4 model. We have evaluated the model against various datasets of satellite observations, agricultural statistics, and in situ measurements by applying a range of metrics. We are able to show that the LPJmL4 model simulates many parameters and relations reasonably.
Stefanie Falk and Björn-Martin Sinnhuber
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1115–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1115-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1115-2018, 2018
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Ozone depletion events (ODEs) in the polar boundary layer are observed frequently in spring. ODEs serve as a source of tropospheric BrO at high latitudes. A treatment of bromine release and recycling on sea-ice- and snow-covered surfaces is implemented in global chemistry–climate model EMAC based on a scheme of Toyota et al. (2011). Many aspects of bromine enhancement and associated ODEs are reproduced in both polar regions. Further bromine release mechanisms can now be tested in a global model.
Yilong Wang, Grégoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Felix Vogel, Lin Wu, Yi Yin, Rong Wang, and Shu Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4229–4250, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4229-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4229-2018, 2018
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This paper assesses the potential of atmospheric 14CO2 observations and a global inversion system to solve for fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions in Europe. The estimate of monthly emission budgets is largely improved in high emitting regions. The results are sensitive to the observation network and the prior uncertainty. Using a high-resolution transport model and a systematic evaluation of the uncertainty in current emission inventories should improve the potential to retrieve FFCO2 emissions.
Abdelhadi El Yazidi, Michel Ramonet, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Isabelle Pison, Amara Abbaris, Dominik Brunner, Sebastien Conil, Marc Delmotte, Francois Gheusi, Frederic Guerin, Lynn Hazan, Nesrine Kachroudi, Giorgos Kouvarakis, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Leonard Rivier, and Dominique Serça
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1599-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1599-2018, 2018
Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Philippe Ciais, Vladislav Bastrikov, Bruno De Vos, Bert Gielen, Gerd Gleixner, Albert Jornet-Puig, Klaus Kaiser, Dolly Kothawala, Ronny Lauerwald, Josep Peñuelas, Marion Schrumpf, Sara Vicca, Nicolas Vuichard, David Walmsley, and Ivan A. Janssens
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 937–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-937-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-937-2018, 2018
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Global models generally oversimplify the representation of soil organic carbon (SOC), and thus its response to global warming remains uncertain. We present the new soil module ORCHIDEE-SOM, within the global model ORCHIDEE, that refines the representation of SOC dynamics and includes the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) processes. The model is able to reproduce SOC stocks and DOC concentrations in four different ecosystems, opening an opportunity for improved predictions of SOC in global models.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Irène Xueref-Remy, Elsa Dieudonné, Cyrille Vuillemin, Morgan Lopez, Christine Lac, Martina Schmidt, Marc Delmotte, Frédéric Chevallier, François Ravetta, Olivier Perrussel, Philippe Ciais, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Michel Ramonet, T. Gerard Spain, and Christophe Ampe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3335–3362, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3335-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3335-2018, 2018
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Urbanized and industrialized areas are the largest source of fossil CO2. This work analyses the atmospheric CO2 variability observed from the first in situ network deployed in the Paris megacity area. Gradients of several ppm are found between the rural, peri-urban and urban sites at the diurnal to the seasonal scales. Wind direction and speed as well as boundary layer dynamics, correlated to highly variable urban emissions, are shown to be key regulator factors of the observed CO2 records.
Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, and Wei Li
Biogeosciences, 15, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1185-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1185-2018, 2018
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Gross land use change such as shifting cultivation causes carbon emissions because carbon release in cleared forests is larger than absorption in regrowing ones. However, to appropriately account for this process, vegetation models have to represent sub-grid secondary forest dynamics. We found that gross land use emissions can be overestimated if sub-grid secondary forests are neglected in the model. Conversely, rotation lengths of shifting cultivation have a critical role.
Ben Parkes, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Philippe Ciais, and Xuhui Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018, 2018
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We present an analysis of three crops in West Africa and their response to short-term climate change in a world where temperatures are 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels. We show that the number of crop failures for all crops is due to increase in the future climate. We further show the difference in yield change across several West African countries and show that the yields are not expected to increase fast enough to prevent food shortages.
Mahdi Nakhavali, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ronny Lauerwald, Jing Tang, Sarah Chadburn, Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Anna Harper, David Walmsley, Matthias Peichl, and Bert Gielen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 593–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, 2018
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In order to provide a better understanding of the Earth's carbon cycle, we need a model that represents the whole continuum from atmosphere to land and into the ocean. In this study we include in JULES a representation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) processes. Our results show that the model is able to reproduce the DOC concentration and controlling processes, including leaching to the riverine system, which is fundamental for integrating the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem.
Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Emmanuel Renault, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Heinrich Bovensmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Lin Wu, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 681–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-681-2018, 2018
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This study assesses the potential of space-borne imagery of CO2 atmospheric concentrations for monitoring the emissions from the Paris area. Such imagery could be provided by European and American missions in the next decade. It highlights the difficulty to improve current knowledge on CO2 emissions for urban areas with CO2 observations from satellites, and calls for more technological innovations in the remote sensing of CO2 and in the models that exploit it.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Gerhard Krinner, Shushi Peng, Mika Aurela, Christian Bernhofer, Christian Brümmer, Syndonia Bret-Harte, Housen Chu, Jiquan Chen, Ankur R. Desai, Jiří Dušek, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Thomas Friborg, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sébastien Gogo, Thomas Grünwald, Birger U. Hansen, David Holl, Elyn Humphreys, Miriam Hurkuck, Gerard Kiely, Janina Klatt, Lars Kutzbach, Chloé Largeron, Fatima Laggoun-Défarge, Magnus Lund, Peter M. Lafleur, Xuefei Li, Ivan Mammarella, Lutz Merbold, Mats B. Nilsson, Janusz Olejnik, Mikaell Ottosson-Löfvenius, Walter Oechel, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Norbert Pirk, Olli Peltola, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Daniel Rasse, Janne Rinne, Gaius Shaver, Hans Peter Schmid, Matteo Sottocornola, Rainer Steinbrecher, Torsten Sachs, Marek Urbaniak, Donatella Zona, and Klaudia Ziemblinska
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018, 2018
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Northern peatlands store large amount of soil carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We implemented peatland hydrological and carbon accumulation processes into the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model was evaluated against EC measurements from 30 northern peatland sites. The model generally well reproduced the spatial gradient and temporal variations in GPP and NEE at these sites. Water table depth was not well predicted but had only small influence on simulated NEE.
Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Wei Li, Matthew J. McGrath, Jinfeng Chang, and Shushi Peng
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 409–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-409-2018, 2018
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Human alteration of land cover has caused CO2 that is stored in forest biomass and soil to be released into the atmosphere and thus contribute to global warming. Global vegetation models that are used to quantify such carbon emissions from land use change traditionally rarely include shifting cultivation and secondary forest age dynamics. In this study, we expanded one vegetation model to include these features. We found that carbon emissions from land use change are estimated to be smaller.
Wei Li, Natasha MacBean, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Defourny, Céline Lamarche, Sophie Bontemps, Richard A. Houghton, and Shushi Peng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 219–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-219-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-219-2018, 2018
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We evaluated the land cover changes based on plant functional types (PFTs) derived from the newly released annual ESA land cover maps. We addressed the geographical distributions and temporal trends of the translated PFT maps and compared with other datasets commonly used by the land surface model community. Different choices of these datasets for the applications in land surface models are proposed depending on the research purposes.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Ye Huang, Chao Yue, Sarah Dantec-Nédélec, Catherine Ottlé, Albert Jornet-Puig, Ana Bastos, Pierre Laurent, Daniel Goll, Simon Bowring, Jinfeng Chang, Bertrand Guenet, Marwa Tifafi, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Agnès Ducharne, Fuxing Wang, Tao Wang, Xuhui Wang, Yilong Wang, Zun Yin, Ronny Lauerwald, Emilie Joetzjer, Chunjing Qiu, Hyungjun Kim, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 121–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, 2018
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Improved projections of future Arctic and boreal ecosystem transformation require improved land surface models that integrate processes specific to these cold biomes. To this end, this study lays out relevant new parameterizations in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. These describe the interactions between soil carbon, soil temperature and hydrology, and their resulting feedbacks on water and CO2 fluxes, in addition to a recently developed fire module.
Fei Lun, Junguo Liu, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Nesme, Jinfeng Chang, Rong Wang, Daniel Goll, Jordi Sardans, Josep Peñuelas, and Michael Obersteiner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1-2018, 2018
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We quantified in detail the P budgets in agricultural systems and PUE on global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P inputs into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils, with the rest lost to bodies of water. There are great differences in P budgets and PUE in agricultural systems on global, regional, and national scales. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution and P in fertilizer and food among countries.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Chao Yue, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, and Ana Bastos
Biogeosciences, 15, 91–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-91-2018, 2018
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We compared the biomass recovery curves from a recent field-based study with those used in bookkeeping models and demonstrated the importance of considering gross forest changes rather than net forest changes. We also derived a critical gross-to-net forest area change ratio, beyond which the sign of carbon flux will be reversed. This critical ratio was further applied to the high-resolution satellite data in the Amazon to distinguish the sensitive regions.
Arsène Druel, Philippe Peylin, Gerhard Krinner, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Anna Peregon, Vladislav Bastrikov, Natalya Kosykh, and Nina Mironycheva-Tokareva
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4693–4722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4693-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4693-2017, 2017
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To improve the simulation of vegetation–climate feedbacks at high latitudes, three new circumpolar vegetation types were added in the ORCHIDEE land surface model: bryophytes (mosses) and lichens, Arctic shrubs, and Arctic grasses. This article is an introduction to the modification of vegetation distribution and physical behaviour, implying for example lower productivity, roughness, and higher winter albedo or freshwater discharge in the Arctic Ocean.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frederic Chevallier, Yi Yin, Christian Rödenbeck, and Taejin Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13903–13919, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13903-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13903-2017, 2017
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The year 2015 appeared as a paradox regarding how global carbon cycle has responded to climate variation: it is the greenest year since 2000 according to satellite observation, but the atmospheric CO2 growth rate is also the highest since 1959. We found that this is due to a only moderate land carbon sink, because high growing-season sink in northern lands has been partly offset by autumn and winter release and the late-year El Niño has led to an abrupt transition to land source in the tropics.
Xu Yue, Susanna Strada, Nadine Unger, and Aihui Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13699–13719, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13699-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13699-2017, 2017
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Climate change will significantly increase wildfire emissions in boreal North America by the midcentury, leading to increased surface ozone and atmospheric aerosols. These air pollutants can affect vegetation photosynthesis through stomatal uptake (for ozone) and radiative and climatic perturbations (for aerosols). Using a carbon–chemistry–climate model, we estimate trivial ozone vegetation damages but significant aerosol-induced reduction in ecosystem productivity by the 2050s.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
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We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Ronny Lauerwald, Pierre Regnier, Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Matthieu Guimberteau, Agnès Ducharne, Jan Polcher, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3821–3859, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3821-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3821-2017, 2017
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ORCHILEAK is a new branch of the terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE that represents dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production from canopy and soils, DOC and CO2 leaching from soils to streams, DOC decomposition, and CO2 evasion to the atmosphere during its lateral transport in rivers, as well as exchange with the soil carbon and litter stocks on floodplains and in swamps. We parameterized and validated ORCHILEAK for the Amazon basin.
Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Vuichard, Fabienne Maignan, Albert Jornet-Puig, Jordi Sardans, Aurelie Violette, Shushi Peng, Yan Sun, Marko Kvakic, Matthieu Guimberteau, Bertrand Guenet, Soenke Zaehle, Josep Penuelas, Ivan Janssens, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3745–3770, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3745-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3745-2017, 2017
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We describe a representation of the terrestrial phosphorus cycle for the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The model is able to reproduce the observed shift from nitrogen to phosphorus limited net primary productivity along a soil formation chronosequence in Hawaii, as well as the contrasting responses of net primary productivity to nutrient addition. However, the simulated nutrient use efficiencies are lower, as observed primarily due to biases in the nutrient content and turnover of woody biomass.
Martin G. De Kauwe, Belinda E. Medlyn, Jürgen Knauer, and Christopher A. Williams
Biogeosciences, 14, 4435–4453, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4435-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4435-2017, 2017
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Understanding the sensitivity of transpiration to stomatal conductance is critical to simulating the water cycle. This sensitivity is a function of the degree of coupling between the vegetation and the atmosphere. We combined an extensive literature summary with estimates of coupling derived from FLUXNET data. We found notable departures from the values previously reported. These data form a model benchmarking metric to test existing coupling assumptions.
Dan Lu, Daniel Ricciuto, Anthony Walker, Cosmin Safta, and William Munger
Biogeosciences, 14, 4295–4314, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4295-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4295-2017, 2017
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Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is important but challenging. This study applies an advanced sampling technique for parameter estimation of a TEM. The results improve the model fit and predictive performance.
Stefanie Falk, Björn-Martin Sinnhuber, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Patrick Jöckel, Phoebe Graf, and Sinikka T. Lennartz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11313–11329, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11313-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11313-2017, 2017
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Brominated very short-lived source gases (VSLS) contribute significantly to the tropospheric and stratospheric bromine loading. We find an increase of future ocean–atmosphere flux of brominated VSLS of 8–10 % compared to present day. A decrease in the tropospheric mixing ratios of VSLS and an increase in the lower stratosphere are attributed to changes in atmospheric chemistry and transport. Bromine impact on stratospheric ozone at the end of the 21st century is reduced compared to present day.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Bowen Zhang, Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun Lu, Shree R. S. Dangal, Jia Yang, and Shufen Pan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 667–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-667-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-667-2017, 2017
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This work addressed how manure nitrogen (N) production and application to cropland have changed over time and space. The 5 arcmin gridded global dataset of manure nitrogen production generated from this study could be used as an input for global or regional land surface and ecosystem models to evaluate the impacts of manure nitrogen on key biogeochemical processes and water quality.
Barbara Marcolla, Christian Rödenbeck, and Alessandro Cescatti
Biogeosciences, 14, 3815–3829, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3815-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3815-2017, 2017
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Patterns and controls of the inter-annual variability of carbon net ecosystem exchange were analysed using three different data streams: ecosystem-level observations (FLUXNET database), a global upscaling of site-level fluxes (MPI-MTE), and a top–down estimate of fluxes (Jena CarboScope Inversion). Consistencies and discrepancies in the temporal and spatial patterns and in the climatic and physiological controls of the inter-annual variability were investigated for the three data sources.
Zhiyuan Zhang, Renduo Zhang, Yang Zhou, Alessandro Cescatti, Georg Wohlfahrt, Minmin Sun, Juan Zhu, Vincenzo Magliulo, Feng Tao, and Guanhong Chen
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-345, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-345, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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This study highlight the key role of temperature as main controlling factor of the maximum respiration rates in most terrestrial ecosystems, while other driving forces reduce the maximum respiration rates and temperature sensitivity of the respiratory process. These findings are particularly relevant under the current scenario of rapid global warming, given that the potential climate-induced changes in ecosystem respiration may lead to substantial anomalies in terrestrial carbon budget.
Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Valerio Avitabile, Leonardo Calle, Nuno Carvalhais, Philippe Ciais, Fabian Gans, Nicolas Gruber, Jens Hartmann, Martin Herold, Kazuhito Ichii, Martin Jung, Peter Landschützer, Goulven G. Laruelle, Ronny Lauerwald, Dario Papale, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, Deepak Ray, Pierre Regnier, Christian Rödenbeck, Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, Christopher Schwalm, Gianluca Tramontana, Alexandra Tyukavina, Riccardo Valentini, Guido van der Werf, Tristram O. West, Julie E. Wolf, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 14, 3685–3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, 2017
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Here we synthesize a wide range of global spatiotemporal observational data on carbon exchanges between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. A key challenge was to consistently combining observational products of terrestrial and aquatic surfaces. Our primary goal is to identify today’s key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that would need to be addressed in future measurement campaigns or expansions of in situ observatories.
Guangsheng Chen, Shufen Pan, Daniel J. Hayes, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 545–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-545-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-545-2017, 2017
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Through synthesizing multiple inventory data sources, this study developed methods to spatialize the time series plantation forest and tree species distribution data for the conterminous US during 1928–2012. These time series and gridded data set can be readily applied in regional Earth system modeling frameworks for assessing the impacts of plantation management practices on forest productivity, carbon and nitrogen stocks, and greenhouse gas and water fluxes on regional or national scales.
Rongting Xu, Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun Lu, Shufen Pan, Jian Chen, Jia Yang, and Bowen Zhang
Clim. Past, 13, 977–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-977-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-977-2017, 2017
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As N2O emissions were present in preindustrial times, only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net human-induced climate change. Large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere. Our estimate using process-based model was the first study that provided the preindustrial N2O emission at the biome, sector or country, and global level, which could be a useful reference for future climate mitigation.
Ana Bastos, Anna Peregon, Érico A. Gani, Sergey Khudyaev, Chao Yue, Wei Li, Célia Gouveia, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-267, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The ice-core record indicates a stabilization of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, which is not captured by the state-of-the-art reconstructions of CO2 sources and sinks.
The 1940s where marked by major socio-economic disruptions due to war. At the same time, very strong warming was registered in the high-latitudes. Here we evaluate the contributions of these two factors to a possible increase in the terrestrial sink not captured in other datasets, using the Former Soviet Union as a case study.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
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There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Richard J. Millar, Zebedee R. Nicholls, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Myles R. Allen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7213–7228, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017, 2017
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Simple representations of the global coupled climate–carbon-cycle system are required for climate policy analysis. Existing models have often failed to capture important physical dependencies of the climate response to carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper we propose a simple but novel modification to impulse-response climate–carbon-cycle models to capture these physical dependencies. This simple model creates an important tool for both climate policy and climate science analysis.
Sabina Assan, Alexia Baudic, Ali Guemri, Philippe Ciais, Valerie Gros, and Felix R. Vogel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2077–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2077-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2077-2017, 2017
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This study is dedicated to improving measurement methods when using a Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy instrument to measure methane at sites with elevated ethane concentrations such as Oil and Gas sites. The research was undertaken after measurements of natural gas samples suggested biased δ13CH4 results. Two instruments were extensively tested to characterize the cross sensitivities to ethane and δ13CH4 and propose corrections. Results indicate that it is imperative to account for the biases.
Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David M. Etheridge, Paul J. Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul B. Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Ian G. Enting, Rachel M. Law, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray Weiss
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017
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Climate change is primarily driven by human-induced increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Based on ongoing community efforts (e.g. AGAGE and NOAA networks, ice cores), this study presents historical concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and 40 other GHGs from year 0 to year 2014. The data is recommended as input for climate models for pre-industrial, historical runs under CMIP6. Global means, but also latitudinal by monthly surface concentration fields are provided.
Reinhard Prestele, Almut Arneth, Alberte Bondeau, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Stephen Sitch, Elke Stehfest, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 369–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, 2017
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Land-use change is still overly simplistically implemented in global ecosystem and climate models. We identify and discuss three major challenges at the interface of land-use and climate modeling and propose ways for how to improve land-use representation in climate models. We conclude that land-use data-provider and user communities need to engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced land-use datasets to improve the quantification of land use–climate interactions and feedback.
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
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The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Xu Yue, Nadine Unger, Kandice Harper, Xiangao Xia, Hong Liao, Tong Zhu, Jingfeng Xiao, Zhaozhong Feng, and Jing Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6073–6089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6073-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6073-2017, 2017
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While it is widely recognized that air pollutants adversely affect human health and climate change, their impacts on the regional carbon balance are less well understood. We apply an Earth system model to quantify the combined effects of ozone and aerosol particles on net primary production in China. Ozone vegetation damage dominates over the aerosol effects, leading to a substantial net suppression of land carbon uptake in the present and future worlds.
Roberto Pilli, Giacomo Grassi, Werner A. Kurz, Giulia Fiorese, and Alessandro Cescatti
Biogeosciences, 14, 2387–2405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2387-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2387-2017, 2017
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We modeled, for 26 European countries, the C budget and fluxes of the main forest pools from 2000 to 2030 under different management scenarios. Our findings show an incipient aging process for the existing forests, but specific conditions, such as the harvest rate and the current age structure, may have different impacts on the country-specific evolution of biomass stock. This provides a useful framework for more detailed analyses of the mitigation potential of the forest sector.
Thomas Gasser, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, William J. Collins, Drew T. Shindell, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 235–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, 2017
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Emission metrics such as GWP or GTP are used to put non-CO2 species on a
CO2-equivalentscale. In the fifth IPCC report the metrics are inconsistent, as the climate–carbon feedback is included only for CO2 but not for non-CO2 species. Here, we simulate a new impulse response function for the feedback, and we use it to correct the metrics. For instance, 1 g of CH4 is equivalent to 31 g of CO2 (instead of 28 g) following the corrected GWP100 metric. It is 34 g if other factors are also updated.
Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Christian Folberth, Michael Glotter, Steven Hoek, Toshichika Iizumi, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Peter Lawrence, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Deepak K. Ray, Ashwan Reddy, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C. Ruane, Gen Sakurai, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalsky, Carol X. Song, Xuhui Wang, Allard de Wit, and Hong Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1403–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, 2017
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Crop models are increasingly used in climate change impact research and integrated assessments. For the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) have supplied crop yield simulations (1980–2010) for maize, wheat, rice and soybean. We evaluate the performance of these models against observational data at global, national and grid cell level. We propose an open-access benchmark system against which future model versions can be tested.
Yi Yin, Frederic Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Anne Cozic, Sophie Szopa, and Yilong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-166, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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CO inverse modelling studies have so far reported significant discrepancies between model concentrations optimised with the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite retrievals and surface in-situ measurements. Here, we assess how well a global CTM fits a large variety of independent CO observations before and after assimilating MOPITTv6 retrievals to optimise CO sources/sink and discuss potential sources of errors and their implications for global CO modelling studies.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
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Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Ciais, Agnès Ducharne, Juan Pablo Boisier, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Hester Biemans, Hannes De Deurwaerder, David Galbraith, Bart Kruijt, Fanny Langerwisch, German Poveda, Anja Rammig, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Graciela Tejada, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso Von Randow, Rita C. S. Von Randow, Ke Zhang, and Hans Verbeeck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, 2017
Chaoqun Lu and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 181–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-181-2017, 2017
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This work has addressed how agricultural nitrogen and phosphorous fertilizer use has changed over time and space. The final product covers global agricultural land, spanning from 1961 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° latitude by longitude. It can serve as an important input driver for regional and global assessment and Earth system modeling of agricultural productivity, crop yield, greenhouse gas balance, global nutrient budget, and ecosystem feedback to climate.
Guido Ceccherini, Simone Russo, Iban Ameztoy, Andrea Francesco Marchese, and Cesar Carmona-Moreno
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 115–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-115-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-115-2017, 2017
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The purpose of this article is to show the extreme temperature regime of heat waves across Africa over recent years (1981–2015). Heat waves have been quantified using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId), which merges the duration and the intensity of extreme temperature events into a single numerical index. The analysis show an increasing number of heat waves of both maxima and minima temperatures in the last decades.
Xu Yue and Nadine Unger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1329–1342, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1329-2017, 2017
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We study aerosol effects on net primary productivity (NPP) in China through perturbations in diffuse and direct radiation. Regional NPP responses are diverse, depending on local aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud amount. Two AOD threshold maps are derived to determine the potential for aerosol diffuse fertilization effects. The net impact of aerosol pollution is limited in China due to dense cloud cover, as well as the offset between regional fertilization and inhibition on NPP.
Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Olivier Boucher, Yann Quilcaille, Maxime Tortora, Laurent Bopp, and Didier Hauglustaine
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 271–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, 2017
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Simple models of the Earth system are useful, especially because of their high computing efficiency. This work describes the OSCAR model: a new simple Earth system model calibrated on state-of-the-art complex models. It will add to the pool of the few simple models currently used by the community, and it will therefore improve the robustness of future studies. Its source code is available upon request.
Christian Folberth, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Juraj Balkovic, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis D. Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Wenfeng Liu, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalský, Hong Yang, Almut Arneth, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Peter J. Lawrence, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Alex C. Ruane, and Xuhui Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Global crop models differ in numerous aspects such as algorithms, parameterization, input data, and management assumptions. This study compares five global crop model frameworks, all based on the same field-scale model, to identify differences induced by the latter three. Results indicate that foremost nutrient supply, soil handling, and crop management induce substantial differences in crop yield estimates whereas crop cultivars primarily result in scaling of yield levels.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Cathy M. Trudinger, Vanessa Haverd, Peter R. Briggs, and Josep G. Canadell
Biogeosciences, 13, 6363–6383, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6363-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6363-2016, 2016
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Semi-arid ecosystems in Australia are responsible for a significant part of the variability in global atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here we use Australian observations to estimate parameters in a land surface model of carbon and water cycles. We quantify the variability in Australian carbon fluxes between 1982 and 2013, including the large uptake in 2011 associated with exceptionally wet conditions following a prolonged drought. We estimate the effect of parameter uncertainty on these estimates.
Johannes Staufer, Grégoire Broquet, François-Marie Bréon, Vincent Puygrenier, Frédéric Chevallier, Irène Xueref-Rémy, Elsa Dieudonné, Morgan Lopez, Martina Schmidt, Michel Ramonet, Olivier Perrussel, Christine Lac, Lin Wu, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14703–14726, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14703-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14703-2016, 2016
Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Bengang Li, Xin Lin, Shu Tao, Zhiping Wang, Yuan Zhang, and Feng Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 14545–14562, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14545-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-14545-2016, 2016
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas, which accounts for about 20 % of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. Anthropogenic methane emissions from China may have been growing rapidly in the past decades because of increased coal mining and fast growing livestock. A good long-term methane emissions dataset is still lacking. Here, we produced a detailed bottom-up inventory of anthropogenic methane emissions from the eight major source sectors in China during 1980–2010.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Igor B. Konovalov, Evgeny V. Berezin, Philippe Ciais, Grégoire Broquet, Ruslan V. Zhuravlev, and Greet Janssens-Maenhout
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13509–13540, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13509-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13509-2016, 2016
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The knowledge of CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel (FF) burning is of paramount importance both for climate prediction and mitigation policy purposes. The paper introduces a method to indirectly constrain a regional budget of FF CO2 emissions by using satellite measurements of "proxy" chemical species and evaluates its potential in application to a western European region.
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Martin Herold, Mariana C. Rufino, Todd S. Rosenstock, Richard A. Houghton, Simone Rossi, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Stephen Ogle, Benjamin Poulter, Louis Verchot, Christopher Martius, and Sytze de Bruin
Biogeosciences, 13, 5799–5819, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5799-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5799-2016, 2016
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The land use sector (AFOLU) is a pivotal component of countries' mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement. Global land use data are therefore important to complement and fill in countries' data gaps. But how different are the existing AFOLU datasets and why? Here we contrast six AFOLU datasets for the tropics at different levels of aggregation (spatial, gases, emission sources) and point out possible reasons for the observed differences and the next steps to improve land use emissions.
Sylvia S. Nyawira, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Axel Don, Victor Brovkin, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 13, 5661–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, 2016
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We introduce an approach applicable to dynamic global vegetation models for evaluating simulated soil carbon changes from land-use changes against meta-analyses. The approach makes use of the large spatial coverage of the observations, and accounts for different ages of the sampled land-use transitions. The evaluation offers an opportunity for identifying causes of model–data discrepancies. Applied to the model JSBACH, we find that introducing crop harvest substantially improves the results.
Marta Camino-Serrano, Elisabeth Graf Pannatier, Sara Vicca, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Mathieu Jonard, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Bert Gielen, Josep Peñuelas, Jordi Sardans, Peter Waldner, Sophia Etzold, Guia Cecchini, Nicholas Clarke, Zoran Galić, Laure Gandois, Karin Hansen, Jim Johnson, Uwe Klinck, Zora Lachmanová, Antti-Jussi Lindroos, Henning Meesenburg, Tiina M. Nieminen, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Kasia Sawicka, Walter Seidling, Anne Thimonier, Elena Vanguelova, Arne Verstraeten, Lars Vesterdal, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 13, 5567–5585, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5567-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5567-2016, 2016
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We investigated the long-term trends of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in soil solution and the drivers of changes in over 100 forest monitoring plots across Europe. An overall increasing trend was detected in the organic layers, but no overall trend was found in the mineral horizons. There are strong interactions between controls acting at local and regional scales. Our findings are relevant for researchers focusing on the link between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and for C-cycle models.
Brian C. O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jason Lowe, Gerald A. Meehl, Richard Moss, Keywan Riahi, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016
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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. The design consists of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions. Climate model projections will facilitate integrated studies of climate change as well as address targeted scientific questions.
Alessandro Cescatti, Barbara Marcolla, Ignacio Goded, and Carsten Gruening
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 4665–4672, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4665-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4665-2016, 2016
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Multi-point monitoring systems are required to measure atmospheric gas concentrations at tall towers and eddy covariance sites. The use of buffer volumes can reduce the uncertainty due to the discrete temporal sampling. We propose a processing scheme that accounts for the fraction of signal built up in the averaging period and reduces the error up to 80 % compared to the standard setup. A relationship is derived to estimate the optimal volume size given the specifications of the sampling system.
Philippe Peylin, Cédric Bacour, Natasha MacBean, Sébastien Leonard, Peter Rayner, Sylvain Kuppel, Ernest Koffi, Abdou Kane, Fabienne Maignan, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, and Pascal Prunet
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3321–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3321-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3321-2016, 2016
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The study describes a carbon cycle data assimilation system that uses satellite observations of vegetation activity, net ecosystem exchange of carbon and water at many sites and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, in order to optimize the parameters of the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The optimized model is able to fit all three data streams leading to a land carbon uptake similar to independent estimates, which opens new perspectives for better prediction of the land carbon balance.
Fang Zhao, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Pierre Friedlingstein, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Eugenia Kalnay, Etsushi Kato, Charles D. Koven, Ben Poulter, Rashid Rafique, Stephen Sitch, Shijie Shu, Beni Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, and Sonke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 13, 5121–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, 2016
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The increasing seasonality of atmospheric CO2 is strongly linked with enhanced land vegetation activities in the last 5 decades, for which the importance of increasing CO2, climate and land use/cover change was evaluated in single model studies (Zeng et al., 2014; Forkel et al., 2016). Here we examine the relative importance of these factors in multiple models. Our results highlight models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying regional dynamics.
Xiyan Xu, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, Dave P. Billesbach, Rachel Y.-W. Chang, Róisín Commane, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Sean Hartery, Yoshinobu Harazono, Hiroki Iwata, Kyle C. McDonald, Charles E. Miller, Walter C. Oechel, Benjamin Poulter, Naama Raz-Yaseef, Colm Sweeney, Margaret Torn, Steven C. Wofsy, Zhen Zhang, and Donatella Zona
Biogeosciences, 13, 5043–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, 2016
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Wetlands are the largest global natural methane source. Peat-rich bogs and fens lying between 50°N and 70°N contribute 10–30% to this source. The predictive capability of the seasonal methane cycle can directly affect the estimation of global methane budget. We present multiscale methane seasonal emission by observations and modeling and find that the uncertainties in predicting the seasonal methane emissions are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH4 production and CH4 transport processes.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
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The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
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Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
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How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Stéphane Mangeon, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Richard Gilham, Anna Harper, Stephen Sitch, and Gerd Folberth
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2685–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2685-2016, 2016
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To understand the role of fires in the Earth system, global fire models are required. In this paper we describe the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO). It follows a reduced complexity approach using mainly temperature, humidity and precipitation. INFERNO was found to perform well on a global scale and to maintain regional patterns over the 1997–2011 period of study, despite regional biases particularly linked to fuel consumption.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
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The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Zuo Xue, Ruoying He, Katja Fennel, Wei-Jun Cai, Steven Lohrenz, Wei-Jen Huang, Hanqin Tian, Wei Ren, and Zhengchen Zang
Biogeosciences, 13, 4359–4377, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4359-2016, 2016
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In this study we used a state-of-the-science coupled physical–biogeochemical model to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of sea surface CO2 concentration in the Gulf of Mexico. Our model revealed the Gulf was a net CO2 sink with a flux of 1.11 ± 0.84 × 1012 mol C yr−1. We also found that biological uptake was the primary driver making the Gulf an overall CO2 sink and that the carbon flux in the northern Gulf was very susceptible to changes in river inputs.
Gianluca Tramontana, Martin Jung, Christopher R. Schwalm, Kazuhito Ichii, Gustau Camps-Valls, Botond Ráduly, Markus Reichstein, M. Altaf Arain, Alessandro Cescatti, Gerard Kiely, Lutz Merbold, Penelope Serrano-Ortiz, Sven Sickert, Sebastian Wolf, and Dario Papale
Biogeosciences, 13, 4291–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4291-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4291-2016, 2016
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We have evaluated 11 machine learning (ML) methods and two complementary drivers' setup to estimate the carbon dioxide (CO2) and energy exchanges between land ecosystems and atmosphere. Obtained results have shown high consistency among ML and high capability to estimate the spatial and seasonal variability of the target fluxes. The results were good for all the ecosystems, with limitations to the ones in the extreme environments (cold, hot) or less represented in the training data (tropics).
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Mariana C. Rufino, Martin Herold, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Todd S. Rosenstock, Mario Herrero, Stephen Ogle, Changsheng Li, Benjamin Poulter, Louis Verchot, Christopher Martius, John Stuiver, and Sytze de Bruin
Biogeosciences, 13, 4253–4269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4253-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4253-2016, 2016
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This research provides spatial data on gross emissions from the land use sector for the tropical region for the period 2000–2005. This sector contributes up to 24 % of the global emissions, but there is little understanding of where the hotspots of emissions are, how uncertain they are, and what the human activities behind these emissions are. Data provided here should assist countries to identify priority areas for mitigation action and contrast the effectiveness of their current measures.
Anna B. Harper, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris D. Jones, Stephen Sitch, Lina M. Mercado, Margriet Groenendijk, Eddy Robertson, Jens Kattge, Gerhard Bönisch, Owen K. Atkin, Michael Bahn, Johannes Cornelissen, Ülo Niinemets, Vladimir Onipchenko, Josep Peñuelas, Lourens Poorter, Peter B. Reich, Nadjeda A. Soudzilovskaia, and Peter van Bodegom
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2415–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, 2016
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Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to predict the response of vegetation to climate change. We improved the representation of carbon uptake by ecosystems in a DGVM by including a wider range of trade-offs between nutrient allocation to photosynthetic capacity and leaf structure, based on observed plant traits from a worldwide data base. The improved model has higher rates of photosynthesis and net C uptake by plants, and more closely matches observations at site and global scales.
Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Mario Herrero, Petr Havlik, Matteo Campioli, Xianzhou Zhang, Yongfei Bai, Nicolas Viovy, Joanna Joiner, Xuhui Wang, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Shilong Piao, Tao Wang, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Jean-Francois Soussana, Anna Peregon, Natalya Kosykh, and Nina Mironycheva-Tokareva
Biogeosciences, 13, 3757–3776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3757-2016, 2016
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We derived the global maps of grassland management intensity of 1901–2012, including the minimum area of managed grassland with fraction of mown/grazed part. These maps, to our knowledge for the first time, provide global, time-dependent information for drawing up global estimates of management impact on biomass production and yields and for global vegetation models to enable simulations of carbon stocks and GHG budgets beyond simple tuning of grassland productivities to account for management.
Xiaofeng Xu, Fengming Yuan, Paul J. Hanson, Stan D. Wullschleger, Peter E. Thornton, William J. Riley, Xia Song, David E. Graham, Changchun Song, and Hanqin Tian
Biogeosciences, 13, 3735–3755, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3735-2016, 2016
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Accurately projecting future climate change requires a good methane modeling. However, how good the current models are and what are the key improvements needed remain unclear. This paper reviews the 40 published methane models to characterize the strengths and weakness of current methane models and further lay out the roadmap for future model improvements.
Lin Wu, Grégoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Valentin Bellassen, Felix Vogel, Frédéric Chevallier, Irène Xueref-Remy, and Yilong Wang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7743–7771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7743-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7743-2016, 2016
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This paper advances atmospheric inversion of city CO2 emissions as follows: (1) illustrate how inversion methodology can be tailored to deal with very large urban networks of sensors measuring CO2 concentrations; (2) demonstrate that atmospheric inversion could be a relevant tool of Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of city CO2 emissions; (3) clarify the theoretical potential of inversion for reducing uncertainties in the estimates of citywide total and sectoral CO2 emissions.
Khatab Abdalla, Pauline Chivenge, Philippe Ciais, and Vincent Chaplot
Biogeosciences, 13, 3619–3633, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3619-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3619-2016, 2016
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Discrepancies exist on the impact of tillage on soil CO2 emissions and on the main soil and environmental controls. Results from a meta-analysis using 174 paired observations comparing CO2 emissions over entire seasons or years from tilled (untilled) soils across different climates, crop types and soil conditions show that on average: (1) tilled soils emit 21 % more CO2 than untilled soils; (2) the difference increase to 29 % in sandy soils from arid climates with low soil organic carbon content.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Alex Boon, Grégoire Broquet, Deborah J. Clifford, Frédéric Chevallier, David M. Butterfield, Isabelle Pison, Michel Ramonet, Jean-Daniel Paris, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6735–6756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6735-2016, 2016
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We measured carbon dioxide and methane concentrations at four near-ground sites located in London, 2012. We investigated the potential for using these measurements, alongside numerical modelling, to help us to understand urban greenhouse gas emissions. Low-level sites were highly sensitive to local emissions, which questions our ability to use measurements from near-ground sites in cities in some modelling applications. A gradient approach was found to be beneficial to reduce model–data errors.
Victoria Naipal, Christian Reick, Kristof Van Oost, Thomas Hoffmann, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 407–423, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-407-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-407-2016, 2016
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We present a new large-scale coarse-resolution sediment budget model that is compatible with Earth system models and simulates sediment dynamics in floodplains and on hillslopes. We applied this model on the Rhine catchment for the last millennium, and found that the model reproduces the spatial distribution of sediment storage and the scaling relationships as found in observations. We also identified that land use change explains most of the temporal variability in sediment storage.
Veronika Eyring, Mattia Righi, Axel Lauer, Martin Evaldsson, Sabrina Wenzel, Colin Jones, Alessandro Anav, Oliver Andrews, Irene Cionni, Edouard L. Davin, Clara Deser, Carsten Ehbrecht, Pierre Friedlingstein, Peter Gleckler, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Juckes, Stephan Kindermann, John Krasting, Dominik Kunert, Richard Levine, Alexander Loew, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Erik Mason, Adam S. Phillips, Simon Read, Catherine Rio, Romain Roehrig, Daniel Senftleben, Andreas Sterl, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Jeremy Walton, Shiyu Wang, and Keith D. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016
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A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) in CMIP has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations.
Guido Ceccherini, Simone Russo, Iban Ameztoy, Claudia Patricia Romero, and Cesar Carmona-Moreno
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 821–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-821-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-821-2016, 2016
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In recent decades there has been an increase in magnitude and occurrence of heat waves and a decrease of cold waves which are possibly related to the anthropogenic influence. This study describes the extreme temperature regime of heat waves and cold waves across South America over recent years (1980–2014). Results indicate an increase in intensity and in frequency of heat waves, especially in the last 10 years. Conversely, no significant changes are detected for cold waves.
Zhen Zhang, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Jed O. Kaplan, and Benjamin Poulter
Biogeosciences, 13, 1387–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, 2016
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This study investigates improvements and uncertainties associated with estimating global inundated area and wetland CH4 emissions using TOPMODEL. Different topographic information and catchment aggregation schemes are evaluated against seasonal and permanently inundated wetland observations. Reducing uncertainty in prognostic wetland dynamics modeling must take into account forcing data as well as topographic scaling schemes.
X. Wu, N. Vuichard, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, X. Wang, V. Magliulo, M. Wattenbach, L. Vitale, P. Di Tommasi, E. J. Moors, W. Jans, J. Elbers, E. Ceschia, T. Tallec, C. Bernhofer, T. Grünwald, C. Moureaux, T. Manise, A. Ligne, P. Cellier, B. Loubet, E. Larmanou, and D. Ripoche
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 857–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-857-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-857-2016, 2016
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The response of crops to changing climate and atmospheric CO2 could have large effects on food production, terrestrial carbon, water, energy fluxes and the climate feedbacks. We developed a new process-oriented terrestrial biogeochemical model named ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0), which integrates a generic crop phenology and harvest module into the land surface model ORCHIDEE. Our model has good ability to capture the spatial gradients of crop phenology, carbon and energy-related variables across Europe.
Bertrand Guenet, Fernando Esteban Moyano, Philippe Peylin, Philippe Ciais, and Ivan A Janssens
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 841–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-841-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-841-2016, 2016
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We present a simple conceptual model of soil carbon decomposition (PRIM) able to reproduce priming experiments. Parameters were optimized using a Bayesian framework and evaluated against another set of soil incubation. PRIM better fit data than the original, CENTURY-type soil decomposition model. We then compared both models incorporated into the global land biosphere model ORCHIDEE. Both versions reproduced observed decay litter rates, but only ORCHIDEE-PRIM could simulate the observed priming.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, D. Zhu, T. Wang, S. S. Peng, and S. L. Piao
Biogeosciences, 13, 675–690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016, 2016
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The pan-boreal biome (> N45°) removes CO2 from the atmosphere (i.e., it is a carbon sink). Fires can alter this carbon balance because they release CO2 to the atmosphere but also initiate a long-term carbon sink during post-fire vegetation recovery. We found that historical fires of 1850–2009 have a small net sink contribution (~6 %) to the 2000–2009 regional carbon sink, which is a balance between immediate source effect of fires in 2000–2009 and sink effects of those in 1850–1999.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
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We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
N. MacBean, F. Maignan, P. Peylin, C. Bacour, F.-M. Bréon, and P. Ciais
Biogeosciences, 12, 7185–7208, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7185-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7185-2015, 2015
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Previous model evaluation studies have shown that terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) need a better representation of the leaf phenology, but the model deficiency could be related to incorrect model parameters or inaccurate model structure. This paper presents a framework for optimising the parameters of phenology models that are commonly used in TBMs. It further demonstrates that the optimisation can result in changes to trends in vegetation productivity and an improvement in gross C fluxes.
Y. Yin, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, G. Broquet, A. Fortems-Cheiney, I. Pison, and M. Saunois
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13433–13451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13433-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13433-2015, 2015
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We studied the global CO concentration decline over the recent decade with a sophisticated atmospheric inversion system assimilating MOPITT CO retrievals, surface methane and surface methyl chloroform in situ measurements. The inversion interprets the CO concentration decline as a 23% decrease in the CO emissions from 2002 to 2011, twice the negative trend estimated by emission inventories. In contrast to bottom-up inventories, we find negative trends over China and South-east Asia.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
U. Karstens, C. Schwingshackl, D. Schmithüsen, and I. Levin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12845–12865, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12845-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12845-2015, 2015
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Detailed 222Rn flux maps are a prerequisite for the use of radon in atmospheric transport studies. We present a high-resolution 222Rn flux map for Europe, based on a parameterization of 222Rn production and transport in the soil. Spatial variations in 222Rn exhalation rates are determined by soil uranium content, water table depth and soil texture. Temporal variations are related to soil moisture variations as the diffusion in the soil depends on available air-filled pore space.
N. Kadygrov, G. Broquet, F. Chevallier, L. Rivier, C. Gerbig, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12765–12787, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12765-2015, 2015
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We study the potential of the European Integrated Carbon Observing System (ICOS) atmospheric network for estimating European CO2 ecosystem fluxes. Regional atmospheric inversions with synthetic data are used to derive it in terms of statistical uncertainty. This potential is high in western Europe and future extensions of the network will increase it in eastern Europe. Future improvements of the models underlying the inversion should also significantly decrease uncertainties at high resolution.
J. E. M. S. Nabel
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3563–3577, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3563-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3563-2015, 2015
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Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) often have high computational expenses, which the presented dynamic two-layer classification concept (D2C) aims to reduce. When implementing D2C into a DVM, a new layer for the dynamic grouping of grid-cells with similar climate and species compositions is introduced. The grouping of cells reduces the number of required calculations. With TreeMig-2L, I present how D2C can be implemented in a DVM and demonstrate that D2C can strongly reduce computational expenses.
X. Yue, N. Unger, and Y. Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11931–11948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11931-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11931-2015, 2015
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We estimate decadal trends in land carbon fluxes and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) during 1982-2011, with a focus on the feedback from biosphere (such as tree growth and phenology). Increases of LAI at peak season accounts for ~25% of the trends in GPP and isoprene emissions at the northern lands. However, phenological change alone does not promote regional carbon uptake and BVOC emissions.
V. Naipal, C. Reick, J. Pongratz, and K. Van Oost
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2893–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2893-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2893-2015, 2015
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We adjusted the topographical and rainfall erosivity factors that are the triggers of erosion in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model to make the model better applicable at coarse resolution on a global scale. The adjusted RUSLE model compares much better to current high resolution estimates of soil erosion in the USA and Europe. It therefore provides a basis for estimating past and future global impacts of soil erosion on climate with the use of Earth system models.
X. Yue, L. J. Mickley, J. A. Logan, R. C. Hudman, M. V. Martin, and R. M. Yantosca
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10033–10055, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015, 2015
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Based on simulated meteorology from 13 GCMs, we projected future wildfire activity in Alaskan and Canadian ecoregions by the mid-century. The most robust change is the increase of 150-390% in area burned over Alaska and western Canada. The models also predict an increase of 45-90% in the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, but a decrease of up to 50% in northern Canada. We further quantify how the changes in wildfire emissions may affect ozone concentrations in North America.
C. D. Koven, J. Q. Chambers, K. Georgiou, R. Knox, R. Negron-Juarez, W. J. Riley, V. K. Arora, V. Brovkin, P. Friedlingstein, and C. D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 12, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, 2015
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Terrestrial carbon feedbacks are a large uncertainty in climate change. We separate modeled feedback responses into those governed by changed carbon inputs (productivity) and changed outputs (turnover). The disaggregated responses show that both are important in controlling inter-model uncertainty. Interactions between productivity and turnover are also important, and research must focus on these interactions for more accurate projections of carbon cycle feedbacks.
X. Lin, N. K. Indira, M. Ramonet, M. Delmotte, P. Ciais, B. C. Bhatt, M. V. Reddy, D. Angchuk, S. Balakrishnan, S. Jorphail, T. Dorjai, T. T. Mahey, S. Patnaik, M. Begum, C. Brenninkmeijer, S. Durairaj, R. Kirubagaran, M. Schmidt, P. S. Swathi, N. V. Vinithkumar, C. Yver Kwok, and V. K. Gaur
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9819–9849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9819-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9819-2015, 2015
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We present 5-year flask measurements (2007–2011) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at three atmospheric stations in India. The results suggest significant sources of CO2, CH4, N2O, CO, and H2 over S and NE India, while SF6 sources are weak. The seasonal cycles for each species reflect the seasonality of sources/sinks and influences of the Indian monsoon circulations. The data show potential to infer regional patterns of GHG fluxes and atmospheric transport over this under-documented region.
T. Launois, P. Peylin, S. Belviso, and B. Poulter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9285–9312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9285-2015, 2015
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
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In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
X. Yue, N. Unger, T. F. Keenan, X. Zhang, and C. S. Vogel
Biogeosciences, 12, 4693–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4693-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4693-2015, 2015
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We performed model inter-comparison and selected the best model capturing the spatial and temporal variations of observations to predict trends of forest phenology over the past 3 decades. Our results show that phenological trends, which are dominantly driven by temperature changes, are not uniform over the contiguous USA, with a significant spring advance in the east, an autumn delay in the northeast and west, but no evidence of change elsewhere.
X. Yue and N. Unger
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2399–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2399-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2399-2015, 2015
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The Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere model (YIBs) predicts land carbon fluxes and tree growth based on mature schemes but with special updates in phenology, ozone vegetation damage, and photosynthetic-dependent biogenic volatile organic compounds. Evaluations with data from 145 flux tower sites and multiple satellite products show that the model predicts reasonable magnitude, seasonality, and spatial distribution of land carbon fluxes.
B. Poulter, N. MacBean, A. Hartley, I. Khlystova, O. Arino, R. Betts, S. Bontemps, M. Boettcher, C. Brockmann, P. Defourny, S. Hagemann, M. Herold, G. Kirches, C. Lamarche, D. Lederer, C. Ottlé, M. Peters, and P. Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2315–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, 2015
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Land cover is an essential variable in earth system models and determines conditions driving biogeochemical, energy and water exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere. A methodology is presented for mapping plant functional types used in global vegetation models from a updated land cover classification system and open-source conversion tool, resulting from a consultative process among map producers and modelers engaged in the European Space Agency’s Land Cover Climate Change Initiative.
A. I. Stegehuis, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A. J. Teuling, D. G. Miralles, and M. Wild
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2285–2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2285-2015, 2015
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Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes such as heat wave conditions. We use a regional climate model with different atmospheric physics schemes to simulate the heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. The five best-performing and diverse physics scheme combinations may be used in the future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of climate change in summer in Europe.
L. Molina, G. Broquet, P. Imbach, F. Chevallier, B. Poulter, D. Bonal, B. Burban, M. Ramonet, L. V. Gatti, S. C. Wofsy, J. W. Munger, E. Dlugokencky, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8423–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8423-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8423-2015, 2015
D. Zhu, S. S. Peng, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, A. Druel, M. Kageyama, G. Krinner, P. Peylin, C. Ottlé, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, D. Schepaschenko, and A. Shvidenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2263–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, 2015
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This study presents a new parameterization of the vegetation dynamics module in the process-based ecosystem model ORCHIDEE for mid- to high-latitude regions, showing significant improvements in the modeled distribution of tree functional types north of 40°N. A new set of metrics is proposed to quantify the performance of ORCHIDEE, which integrates uncertainties in the observational data sets.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
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We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
C. E. Yver Kwok, D. Müller, C. Caldow, B. Lebègue, J. G. Mønster, C. W. Rella, C. Scheutz, M. Schmidt, M. Ramonet, T. Warneke, G. Broquet, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2853–2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2853-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2853-2015, 2015
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This study presents two methods for estimating methane emissions from a waste water treatment plant (WWTP) along with results from a measurement campaign at a WWTP in Valence, France. We show that the tracer release method is suitable to quantify facility emissions, while the chamber measurements, provide insights into individual processes. We confirm that the open basins are not a major source of CH4 on the WWTP but that the pretreatment and sludge treatment are the main emitters.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
K. Nishina, A. Ito, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, D. J. Beerling, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, R. Kahana, E. Kato, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, 2015
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Our study focused on uncertainties in terrestrial C cycling under newly developed scenarios with CMIP5. This study presents first results for examining relative uncertainties of projected terrestrial C cycling in multiple projection components. Only using our new model inter-comparison project data sets enables us to evaluate various uncertainty sources in projection periods. The information on relative uncertainties is useful for climate science and climate change impact evaluation.
E. Joetzjer, C. Delire, H. Douville, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, D. Carrer, H. Verbeeck, M. De Weirdt, and D. Bonal
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1709–1727, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1709-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1709-2015, 2015
R. Wang, Y. Balkanski, O. Boucher, L. Bopp, A. Chappell, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, J. Peñuelas, and S. Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6247–6270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, 2015
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This study makes a first attempt to estimate the temporal trend of Fe emissions from anthropogenic and natural combustion sources from 1960 to 2007 and the emissions of Fe from mineral dust based on a recent mineralogical database. The new emission inventory is introduced into a global aerosol model. The simulated total Fe and soluble Fe concentrations in surface air as well as the deposition of total Fe are evaluated by observations over major continental and oceanic regions globally.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
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We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
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Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, and T. T. van Leeuwen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1321–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1321-2015, 2015
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We conducted parallel simulations using a global land surface model, with and without fires being included, respectively. When the anthropogenic land cover change fire is excluded, we find that natural wildfires have reduced the global land carbon uptake by 0.3Pg C per year over 1901-2012. This is equivalent to 20% of the land carbon uptake in a world without fire. This fire-induced reduction in carbon uptake could be partly explained by climate variability, in particular the ENSO events.
A. P. Ballantyne, R. Andres, R. Houghton, B. D. Stocker, R. Wanninkhof, W. Anderegg, L. A. Cooper, M. DeGrandpre, P. P. Tans, J. B. Miller, C. Alden, and J. W. C. White
Biogeosciences, 12, 2565–2584, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015, 2015
F. Pacifico, G. A. Folberth, S. Sitch, J. M. Haywood, L. V. Rizzo, F. F. Malavelle, and P. Artaxo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2791–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2791-2015, 2015
F. M. Bréon, G. Broquet, V. Puygrenier, F. Chevallier, I. Xueref-Remy, M. Ramonet, E. Dieudonné, M. Lopez, M. Schmidt, O. Perrussel, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1707–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1707-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1707-2015, 2015
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
A. W. King, R. J. Andres, K. J. Davis, M. Hafer, D. J. Hayes, D. N. Huntzinger, B. de Jong, W. A. Kurz, A. D. McGuire, R. Vargas, Y. Wei, T. O. West, and C. W. Woodall
Biogeosciences, 12, 399–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-399-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-399-2015, 2015
E. Joetzjer, C. Delire, H. Douville, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, R. Fisher, B. Christoffersen, J. C. Calvet, A. C. L. da Costa, L. V. Ferreira, and P. Meir
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2933–2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2933-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2933-2014, 2014
Y. Wei, S. Liu, D. N. Huntzinger, A. M. Michalak, N. Viovy, W. M. Post, C. R. Schwalm, K. Schaefer, A. R. Jacobson, C. Lu, H. Tian, D. M. Ricciuto, R. B. Cook, J. Mao, and X. Shi
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2875-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2875-2014, 2014
M. Van Oijen, J. Balkovi, C. Beer, D. R. Cameron, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, T. Kato, M. Kuhnert, R. Martin, R. Myneni, A. Rammig, S. Rolinski, J.-F. Soussana, K. Thonicke, M. Van der Velde, and L. Xu
Biogeosciences, 11, 6357–6375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014, 2014
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We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, S. Archibald, B. Poulter, W. M. Hao, S. Hantson, F. Mouillot, P. Friedlingstein, F. Maignan, and N. Viovy
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2747–2767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, 2014
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ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE model could moderately capture the decadal trend and variation of burned area during the 20th century, and the spatial and temporal patterns of contemporary vegetation fires. The model has a better performance in simulating fires for regions dominated by climate-driven fires, such as boreal forests. However, it has limited capability to reproduce the infrequent but important large fires in different ecosystems, where urgent model improvement is needed in the future.
A. Agustí-Panareda, S. Massart, F. Chevallier, S. Boussetta, G. Balsamo, A. Beljaars, P. Ciais, N. M. Deutscher, R. Engelen, L. Jones, R. Kivi, J.-D. Paris, V.-H. Peuch, V. Sherlock, A. T. Vermeulen, P. O. Wennberg, and D. Wunch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11959–11983, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11959-2014, 2014
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This paper presents a new operational CO2 forecast product as part of the Copernicus Atmospheric Services suite of atmospheric composition products, using the state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The evaluation with independent observations shows that the forecast has skill in predicting the synoptic variability of CO2. The online simulation of CO2 fluxes from vegetation contributes to this skill.
S. Kuppel, P. Peylin, F. Maignan, F. Chevallier, G. Kiely, L. Montagnani, and A. Cescatti
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2581–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2581-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2581-2014, 2014
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A consistent calibration of an advanced land surface model was performed by grouping in situ information on land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon and water using broad ecosystem and climate classes. Signatures of improved carbon cycle simulations were found across spatial and temporal scales, along with insights into current model limitations. These results hold promising perspectives within the ongoing efforts towards building robust model-data fusion frameworks for earth system models.
I. B. Konovalov, E. V. Berezin, P. Ciais, G. Broquet, M. Beekmann, J. Hadji-Lazaro, C. Clerbaux, M. O. Andreae, J. W. Kaiser, and E.-D. Schulze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10383–10410, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10383-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10383-2014, 2014
L. R. Boysen, V. Brovkin, V. K. Arora, P. Cadule, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, E. Kato, J. Pongratz, and V. Gayler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 309–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-309-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-309-2014, 2014
J. P. Boisier, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, and P. Ciais
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3571–3590, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3571-2014, 2014
S. Wilkenskjeld, S. Kloster, J. Pongratz, T. Raddatz, and C. H. Reick
Biogeosciences, 11, 4817–4828, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4817-2014, 2014
B. P. Guillod, B. Orlowsky, D. Miralles, A. J. Teuling, P. D. Blanken, N. Buchmann, P. Ciais, M. Ek, K. L. Findell, P. Gentine, B. R. Lintner, R. L. Scott, B. Van den Hurk, and S. I. Seneviratne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 8343–8367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8343-2014, 2014
J. B. Fisher, M. Sikka, W. C. Oechel, D. N. Huntzinger, J. R. Melton, C. D. Koven, A. Ahlström, M. A. Arain, I. Baker, J. M. Chen, P. Ciais, C. Davidson, M. Dietze, B. El-Masri, D. Hayes, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, P. E. Levy, M. R. Lomas, B. Poulter, D. Price, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, H. Tian, E. Tomelleri, H. Verbeeck, N. Viovy, R. Wania, N. Zeng, and C. E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 11, 4271–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, 2014
M. Schmidt, M. Lopez, C. Yver Kwok, C. Messager, M. Ramonet, B. Wastine, C. Vuillemin, F. Truong, B. Gal, E. Parmentier, O. Cloué, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2283–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2283-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2283-2014, 2014
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
C. E. Smyth, G. Stinson, E. Neilson, T. C. Lemprière, M. Hafer, G. J. Rampley, and W. A. Kurz
Biogeosciences, 11, 3515–3529, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3515-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3515-2014, 2014
N. M. Fyllas, E. Gloor, L. M. Mercado, S. Sitch, C. A. Quesada, T. F. Domingues, D. R. Galbraith, A. Torre-Lezama, E. Vilanova, H. Ramírez-Angulo, N. Higuchi, D. A. Neill, M. Silveira, L. Ferreira, G. A. Aymard C., Y. Malhi, O. L. Phillips, and J. Lloyd
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1251–1269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1251-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1251-2014, 2014
M. R. Raupach, M. Gloor, J. L. Sarmiento, J. G. Canadell, T. L. Frölicher, T. Gasser, R. A. Houghton, C. Le Quéré, and C. M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 11, 3453–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014, 2014
A. Valade, P. Ciais, N. Vuichard, N. Viovy, A. Caubel, N. Huth, F. Marin, and J.-F. Martiné
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1225–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1225-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1225-2014, 2014
C. Rumpel, V. Chaplot, P. Ciais, A. Chabbi, B. Bouahom, and C. Valentin
Biogeosciences, 11, 3299–3305, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3299-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3299-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
X. Wu, F. Babst, P. Ciais, D. Frank, M. Reichstein, M. Wattenbach, C. Zang, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 11, 3057–3068, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, 2014
M. Guimberteau, A. Ducharne, P. Ciais, J. P. Boisier, S. Peng, M. De Weirdt, and H. Verbeeck
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1115–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1115-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1115-2014, 2014
L. Zhang, D. J. Jacob, X. Yue, N. V. Downey, D. A. Wood, and D. Blewitt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5295–5309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5295-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5295-2014, 2014
M. Balzarolo, S. Boussetta, G. Balsamo, A. Beljaars, F. Maignan, J.-C. Calvet, S. Lafont, A. Barbu, B. Poulter, F. Chevallier, C. Szczypta, and D. Papale
Biogeosciences, 11, 2661–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2661-2014, 2014
C. Szczypta, J.-C. Calvet, F. Maignan, W. Dorigo, F. Baret, and P. Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 931–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-931-2014, 2014
M. Verma, M. A. Friedl, A. D. Richardson, G. Kiely, A. Cescatti, B. E. Law, G. Wohlfahrt, B. Gielen, O. Roupsard, E. J. Moors, P. Toscano, F. P. Vaccari, D. Gianelle, G. Bohrer, A. Varlagin, N. Buchmann, E. van Gorsel, L. Montagnani, and P. Propastin
Biogeosciences, 11, 2185–2200, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2185-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2185-2014, 2014
K. Nishina, A. Ito, D. J. Beerling, P. Cadule, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, R. Kahana, E. Kato, R. Keribin, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, T. T. Rademacher, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, N. Vuichard, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 197–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, 2014
J. Pongratz, C. H. Reick, R. A. Houghton, and J. I. House
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 177–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-177-2014, 2014
I. N. Fletcher, L. E. O. C. Aragão, A. Lima, Y. Shimabukuro, and P. Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 11, 1449–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1449-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1449-2014, 2014
S. X. Fang, L. X. Zhou, P. P. Tans, P. Ciais, M. Steinbacher, L. Xu, and T. Luan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2541–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2541-2014, 2014
Y. Peng, V. K. Arora, W. A. Kurz, R. A. Hember, B. J. Hawkins, J. C. Fyfe, and A. T. Werner
Biogeosciences, 11, 635–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-635-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-635-2014, 2014
D. Dalmonech, A. M. Foley, A. Anav, P. Friedlingstein, A. D. Friend, M. Kidston, M. Willeit, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
C. R. Schwalm, D. N. Huntinzger, R. B. Cook, Y. Wei, I. T. Baker, R. P. Neilson, B. Poulter, P. Caldwell, G. Sun, H. Q. Tian, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1801-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
R. Valentini, A. Arneth, A. Bombelli, S. Castaldi, R. Cazzolla Gatti, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, E. Grieco, J. Hartmann, M. Henry, R. A. Houghton, M. Jung, W. L. Kutsch, Y. Malhi, E. Mayorga, L. Merbold, G. Murray-Tortarolo, D. Papale, P. Peylin, B. Poulter, P. A. Raymond, M. Santini, S. Sitch, G. Vaglio Laurin, G. R. van der Werf, C. A. Williams, and R. J. Scholes
Biogeosciences, 11, 381–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-381-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-381-2014, 2014
J. F. Chang, N. Viovy, N. Vuichard, P. Ciais, T. Wang, A. Cozic, R. Lardy, A.-I. Graux, K. Klumpp, R. Martin, and J.-F. Soussana
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2165–2181, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2165-2013, 2013
B. Guenet, F. E. Moyano, N. Vuichard, G. J. D. Kirk, P. H. Bellamy, S. Zaehle, and P. Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2153–2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2153-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2153-2013, 2013
F. Souty, B. Dorin, T. Brunelle, P. Dumas, and P. Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-6975-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
D. N. Huntzinger, C. Schwalm, A. M. Michalak, K. Schaefer, A. W. King, Y. Wei, A. Jacobson, S. Liu, R. B. Cook, W. M. Post, G. Berthier, D. Hayes, M. Huang, A. Ito, H. Lei, C. Lu, J. Mao, C. H. Peng, S. Peng, B. Poulter, D. Riccuito, X. Shi, H. Tian, W. Wang, N. Zeng, F. Zhao, and Q. Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2121–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2121-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2121-2013, 2013
H. Tian, G. Chen, C. Lu, X. Xu, W. Ren, K. Banger, B. Zhang, B. Tao, S. Pan, M. Liu, and C. Zhang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-19811-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-19811-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
C. Yue, P. Ciais, S. Luyssaert, P. Cadule, J. Harden, J. Randerson, V. Bellassen, T. Wang, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, and N. Viovy
Biogeosciences, 10, 8233–8252, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8233-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8233-2013, 2013
E. Joetzjer, H. Douville, C. Delire, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, and S. Tyteca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4885–4895, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4885-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4885-2013, 2013
C. Ottlé, J. Lescure, F. Maignan, B. Poulter, T. Wang, and N. Delbart
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 331–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-331-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-331-2013, 2013
P. C. Stoy, M. C. Dietze, A. D. Richardson, R. Vargas, A. G. Barr, R. S. Anderson, M. A. Arain, I. T. Baker, T. A. Black, J. M. Chen, R. B. Cook, C. M. Gough, R. F. Grant, D. Y. Hollinger, R. C. Izaurralde, C. J. Kucharik, P. Lafleur, B. E. Law, S. Liu, E. Lokupitiya, Y. Luo, J. W. Munger, C. Peng, B. Poulter, D. T. Price, D. M. Ricciuto, W. J. Riley, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, C. R. Schwalm, H. Tian, H. Verbeeck, and E. Weng
Biogeosciences, 10, 6893–6909, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6893-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6893-2013, 2013
W. Yuan, S. Liu, W. Cai, W. Dong, J. Chen, A. Arain, P. D. Blanken, A. Cescatti, G. Wohlfahrt, T. Georgiadis, L. Genesio, D. Gianelle, A. Grelle, G. Kiely, A. Knohl, D. Liu, M. Marek, L. Merbold, L. Montagnani, O. Panferov, M. Peltoniemi, S. Rambal, A. Raschi, A. Varlagin, and J. Xia
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-5475-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-5475-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
C. E. Yver-Kwok, D. Müller, C. Caldow, B. Lebegue, J. G. Mønster, C. W. Rella, C. Scheutz, M. Schmidt, M. Ramonet, T. Warneke, G. Broquet, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-6-9181-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-6-9181-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3707–3720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, 2013
E. V. Berezin, I. B. Konovalov, P. Ciais, A. Richter, S. Tao, G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Beekmann, and E.-D. Schulze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9415–9438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9415-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9415-2013, 2013
G. Broquet, F. Chevallier, F.-M. Bréon, N. Kadygrov, M. Alemanno, F. Apadula, S. Hammer, L. Haszpra, F. Meinhardt, J. A. Morguí, J. Necki, S. Piacentino, M. Ramonet, M. Schmidt, R. L. Thompson, A. T. Vermeulen, C. Yver, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9039–9056, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9039-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9039-2013, 2013
M. Roland, P. Serrano-Ortiz, A. S. Kowalski, Y. Goddéris, E. P. Sánchez-Cañete, P. Ciais, F. Domingo, S. Cuezva, S. Sanchez-Moral, B. Longdoz, D. Yakir, R. Van Grieken, J. Schott, C. Cardell, and I. A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 10, 5009–5017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5009-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5009-2013, 2013
T. Gasser and P. Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 171–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-171-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-171-2013, 2013
R. Wang, S. Tao, P. Ciais, H. Z. Shen, Y. Huang, H. Chen, G. F. Shen, B. Wang, W. Li, Y. Y. Zhang, Y. Lu, D. Zhu, Y. C. Chen, X. P. Liu, W. T. Wang, X. L. Wang, W. X. Liu, B. G. Li, and S. L. Piao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5189–5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5189-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5189-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
C. Le Quéré, R. J. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, G. Marland, G. P. Peters, G. R. van der Werf, A. Ahlström, R. M. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, C. Jourdain, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S. Sitch, B. D. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, 2013
B. Guenet, T. Eglin, N. Vasilyeva, P. Peylin, P. Ciais, and C. Chenu
Biogeosciences, 10, 2379–2392, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2379-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2379-2013, 2013
B. B. B. Booth, D. Bernie, D. McNeall, E. Hawkins, J. Caesar, C. Boulton, P. Friedlingstein, and D. M. H. Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, 2013
M. Ménégoz, G. Krinner, Y. Balkanski, A. Cozic, O. Boucher, and P. Ciais
The Cryosphere, 7, 537–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-537-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-537-2013, 2013
V. Haverd, M. R. Raupach, P. R. Briggs, J. G. Canadell, P. Isaac, C. Pickett-Heaps, S. H. Roxburgh, E. van Gorsel, R. A. Viscarra Rossel, and Z. Wang
Biogeosciences, 10, 2011–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2011-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2011-2013, 2013
J. P. Boisier, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, and P. Ciais
Biogeosciences, 10, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1501-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1501-2013, 2013
V. Haverd, M. R. Raupach, P. R. Briggs, J. G. Canadell., S. J. Davis, R. M. Law, C. P. Meyer, G. P. Peters, C. Pickett-Heaps, and B. Sherman
Biogeosciences, 10, 851–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-851-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-851-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
P. K. Patra, J. G. Canadell, R. A. Houghton, S. L. Piao, N.-H. Oh, P. Ciais, K. R. Manjunath, A. Chhabra, T. Wang, T. Bhattacharya, P. Bousquet, J. Hartman, A. Ito, E. Mayorga, Y. Niwa, P. A. Raymond, V. V. S. S. Sarma, and R. Lasco
Biogeosciences, 10, 513–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-513-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-513-2013, 2013
B. Ringeval, P. O. Hopcroft, P. J. Valdes, P. Ciais, G. Ramstein, A. J. Dolman, and M. Kageyama
Clim. Past, 9, 149–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-149-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-149-2013, 2013
G. Hugelius, C. Tarnocai, G. Broll, J. G. Canadell, P. Kuhry, and D. K. Swanson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 3–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-3-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-3-2013, 2013
G. Lasslop, M. Migliavacca, G. Bohrer, M. Reichstein, M. Bahn, A. Ibrom, C. Jacobs, P. Kolari, D. Papale, T. Vesala, G. Wohlfahrt, and A. Cescatti
Biogeosciences, 9, 5243–5259, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5243-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5243-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Domain: ESSD – Land | Subject: Land Cover and Land Use
Advances in LUCAS Copernicus 2022: enhancing Earth observations with comprehensive in situ data on EU land cover and use
Global 30 m seamless data cube (2000–2022) of land surface reflectance generated from Landsat 5, 7, 8, and 9 and MODIS Terra constellations
Mapping rangeland health indicators in eastern Africa from 2000 to 2022
3D-GloBFP: the first global three-dimensional building footprint dataset
Enhancing high-resolution forest stand mean height mapping in China through an individual tree-based approach with close-range lidar data
Annual high-resolution grazing-intensity maps on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1990 to 2020
Global mapping of oil palm planting year from 1990 to 2021
A 28-time-point cropland area change dataset in Northeast China from 1000 to 2020
Mapping sugarcane globally at 10 m resolution using Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) and Sentinel-2
Annual maps of forest and evergreen forest in the contiguous United States during 2015–2017 from analyses of PALSAR-2 and Landsat images
Monsoon Asia Rice Calendar (MARC): a gridded rice calendar in monsoon Asia based on Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images
EARice10: A 10 m Resolution Annual Rice Distribution Map of East Asia for 2023
A 100 m gridded population dataset of China's seventh census using ensemble learning and big geospatial data
Annual time-series 1 km maps of crop area and types in the conterminous US (CropAT-US): cropping diversity changes during 1850–2021
Retrieval of dominant methane (CH4) emission sources, the first high-resolution (1–2 m) dataset of storage tanks of China in 2000–2021
A 10 m resolution land cover map of the Tibetan Plateau with detailed vegetation types
ChinaSoyArea10m: a dataset of soybean-planting areas with a spatial resolution of 10 m across China from 2017 to 2021
A Sentinel-2 Machine Learning Dataset for Tree Species Classification in Germany
Physical, social, and biological attributes for improved understanding and prediction of wildfires: FPA FOD-Attributes dataset
Map of forest tree species for Poland based on Sentinel-2 data
The ABoVE L-band and P-band airborne synthetic aperture radar surveys
A 30 m annual cropland dataset of China from 1986 to 2021
Global 1 km land surface parameters for kilometer-scale Earth system modeling
A flux tower site attribute dataset intended for land surface modeling
ChinaRiceCalendar – seasonal crop calendars for early-, middle-, and late-season rice in China
Harmonized European Union subnational crop statistics can reveal climate impacts and crop cultivation shifts
GLC_FCS30D: the first global 30 m land-cover dynamics monitoring product with a fine classification system for the period from 1985 to 2022 generated using dense-time-series Landsat imagery and the continuous change-detection method
A global estimate of monthly vegetation and soil fractions from spatiotemporally adaptive spectral mixture analysis during 2001–2022
A 2020 forest age map for China with 30 m resolution
GMIE-100: a global maximum irrigation extent and irrigation type dataset derived through irrigation performance during drought stress and machine learning method
Country-level estimates of gross and net carbon fluxes from land use, land-use change and forestry
A global FAOSTAT reference database of cropland nutrient budgets and nutrient use efficiency (1961–2020): nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium
Annual maps of forest cover in the Brazilian Amazon from analyses of PALSAR and MODIS images
Global 500 m seamless dataset (2000–2022) of land surface reflectance generated from MODIS products
The first map of crop sequence types in Europe over 2012–2018
WorldCereal: a dynamic open-source system for global-scale, seasonal, and reproducible crop and irrigation mapping
High-resolution mapping of global winter-triticeae crops using a sample-free identification method
A new cropland area database by country circa 2020
FORMS: Forest Multiple Source height, wood volume, and biomass maps in France at 10 to 30 m resolution based on Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) data with a deep learning approach
SinoLC-1: the first 1 m resolution national-scale land-cover map of China created with a deep learning framework and open-access data
HISDAC-ES: historical settlement data compilation for Spain (1900–2020)
LCM2021 – the UK Land Cover Map 2021
ChinaWheatYield30m: a 30 m annual winter wheat yield dataset from 2016 to 2021 in China
Refined fine-scale mapping of tree cover using time series of Planet-NICFI and Sentinel-1 imagery for Southeast Asia (2016–2021)
High-resolution global map of closed-canopy coconut palm
High-resolution land use and land cover dataset for regional climate modelling: historical and future changes in Europe
Global urban fractional changes at a 1 km resolution throughout 2100 under eight scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
China Building Rooftop Area: the first multi-annual (2016–2021) and high-resolution (2.5 m) building rooftop area dataset in China derived with super-resolution segmentation from Sentinel-2 imagery
High-resolution distribution maps of single-season rice in China from 2017 to 2022
Mapping global non-floodplain wetlands
Raphaël d'Andrimont, Momchil Yordanov, Fernando Sedano, Astrid Verhegghen, Peter Strobl, Savvas Zachariadis, Flavia Camilleri, Alessandra Palmieri, Beatrice Eiselt, Jose Miguel Rubio Iglesias, and Marijn van der Velde
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5723–5735, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5723-2024, 2024
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The Land Use/Cover Area frame Survey (LUCAS) Copernicus 2022 is a large and systematic in situ field survey of 137 966 polygons over the European Union in 2022. The data contain 82 land cover classes and 40 land use classes.
Shuang Chen, Jie Wang, Qiang Liu, Xiangan Liang, Rui Liu, Peng Qin, Jincheng Yuan, Junbo Wei, Shuai Yuan, Huabing Huang, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5449–5475, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5449-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5449-2024, 2024
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The inconsistent coverage of Landsat data due to its long revisit intervals and frequent cloud cover poses challenges to large-scale land monitoring. We developed a global 30 m 23-year (2000–2022) daily seamless data cube (SDC) of surface reflectance based on Landsat 5, 7, 8, and 9 and MODIS products. The SDC exhibits enhanced capabilities for monitoring land cover changes and robust consistency in both spatial and temporal dimensions, which are important for global environmental monitoring.
Gerardo E. Soto, Steven W. Wilcox, Patrick E. Clark, Francesco P. Fava, Nathaniel D. Jensen, Njoki Kahiu, Chuan Liao, Benjamin Porter, Ying Sun, and Christopher B. Barrett
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5375–5404, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5375-2024, 2024
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This paper uses machine learning and linear unmixing to produce rangeland health indicators: Landsat time series of land cover classes and vegetation fractional cover of photosynthetic vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation, and bare ground in arid and semi-arid Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia. This represents the first multi-decadal Landsat-resolution dataset specifically designed for mapping and monitoring rangeland health in the arid and semi-arid rangelands of this portion of eastern Africa.
Yangzi Che, Xuecao Li, Xiaoping Liu, Yuhao Wang, Weilin Liao, Xianwei Zheng, Xucai Zhang, Xiaocong Xu, Qian Shi, Jiajun Zhu, Honghui Zhang, Hua Yuan, and Yongjiu Dai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5357–5374, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5357-2024, 2024
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Most existing building height products are limited with respect to either spatial resolution or coverage, not to mention the spatial heterogeneity introduced by global building forms. Using Earth Observation (EO) datasets for 2020, we developed a global height dataset at the individual building scale. The dataset provides spatially explicit information on 3D building morphology, supporting both macro- and microanalysis of urban areas.
Yuling Chen, Haitao Yang, Zekun Yang, Qiuli Yang, Weiyan Liu, Guoran Huang, Yu Ren, Kai Cheng, Tianyu Xiang, Mengxi Chen, Danyang Lin, Zhiyong Qi, Jiachen Xu, Yixuan Zhang, Guangcai Xu, and Qinghua Guo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5267–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5267-2024, 2024
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The national-scale continuous maps of arithmetic mean height and weighted mean height across China address the challenges of accurately estimating forest stand mean height using a tree-based approach. These maps produced in this study provide critical datasets for forest sustainable management in China, including climate change mitigation (e.g., terrestrial carbon estimation), forest ecosystem assessment, and forest inventory practices.
Jia Zhou, Jin Niu, Ning Wu, and Tao Lu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5171–5189, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5171-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5171-2024, 2024
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The study provided an annual 100 m resolution glimpse into the grazing activities across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The newly minted Gridded Dataset of Grazing Intensity (GDGI) not only boasts exceptional accuracy but also acts as a pivotal resource for further research and strategic planning, with the potential to shape sustainable grazing practices, guide informed environmental stewardship, and ensure the longevity of the region’s precious ecosystems.
Adrià Descals, David L. A. Gaveau, Serge Wich, Zoltan Szantoi, and Erik Meijaard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5111–5129, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5111-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5111-2024, 2024
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This study provides a 10 m global oil palm extent layer for 2021 and a 30 m oil palm planting-year layer from 1990 to 2021. The oil palm extent layer was produced using a convolutional neural network that identified industrial and smallholder plantations using Sentinel-1 data. The oil palm planting year was developed using a methodology specifically designed to detect the early stages of oil palm development in the Landsat time series.
Ran Jia, Xiuqi Fang, Yundi Yang, Masayuki Yokozawa, and Yu Ye
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4971–4994, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4971-2024, 2024
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We reconstructed a cropland area change dataset in Northeast China over the past millennium by integrating multisource data with a unified standard using the historical and archaeological record, statistical yearbook, and national land survey. Cropland in Northeast China exhibited phases of expansion–reduction–expansion over the past millennium. This dataset can be used for improving the land use and land cover change (LUCC) dataset and assessing LUCC-induced carbon emission and climate change.
Stefania Di Tommaso, Sherrie Wang, Rob Strey, and David B. Lobell
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4931–4947, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4931-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4931-2024, 2024
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Sugarcane plays a vital role in food, biofuel, and farmer income globally, yet its cultivation faces numerous social and environmental challenges. Despite its significance, accurate mapping remains limited. Our study addresses this gap by introducing a novel 10 m global dataset of sugarcane maps spanning 2019–2022. Comparisons with field data, pre-existing maps, and official government statistics all indicate the high precision and high recall of our maps.
Jie Wang, Xiangming Xiao, Yuanwei Qin, Jinwei Dong, Geli Zhang, Xuebin Yang, Xiaocui Wu, Chandrashekhar Biradar, and Yang Hu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4619–4639, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4619-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4619-2024, 2024
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Existing satellite-based forest maps have large uncertainties due to different forest definitions and mapping algorithms. To effectively manage forest resources, timely and accurate annual forest maps at a high spatial resolution are needed. This study improved forest maps by integrating PALSAR-2 and Landsat images. Annual evergreen and non-evergreen forest-type maps were also generated. This critical information supports the Global Forest Resources Assessment.
Xin Zhao, Kazuya Nishina, Haruka Izumisawa, Yuji Masutomi, Seima Osako, and Shuhei Yamamoto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3893–3911, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3893-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3893-2024, 2024
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Mapping a rice calendar in a spatially explicit manner with a consistent framework remains challenging at a global or continental scale. We successfully developed a new gridded rice calendar for monsoon Asia based on Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images, which characterize transplanting and harvesting dates and the number of rice croppings in a comprehensive framework. Our rice calendar will be beneficial for rice management, production prediction, and the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions.
Mingyang Song, Lu Xu, Ji Ge, Hong Zhang, Lijun Zuo, Jingling Jiang, Yinhaibin Ding, Yazhe Xie, and Fan Wu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-331, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-331, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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We designed to generate the 10 m resolution rice distribution map of EA in 2023 (EARice10). The generated EARice10 has an OA of 90.48 % on the validation samples, showing good consistency with statistical data and existing datasets, with R2 values ranging between 0.94 and 0.98 with statistical data, and between 0.79 and 0.98 with existing datasets. Moreover, EARice10 is the most up-to-date rice distribution map that comprehensively covers four rice production countries of EA in 10 m resolution.
Yuehong Chen, Congcong Xu, Yong Ge, Xiaoxiang Zhang, and Ya'nan Zhou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3705–3718, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3705-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3705-2024, 2024
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Population data is crucial for human–nature interactions. Gridded population data can address limitations of census data in irregular units. In China, rapid urbanization necessitates timely and accurate population grids. However, existing datasets for China are either outdated or lack recent census data. Hence, a novel approach was developed to disaggregate China’s seventh census data into 100 m population grids. The resulting dataset outperformed the existing LandScan and WorldPop datasets.
Shuchao Ye, Peiyu Cao, and Chaoqun Lu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3453–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3453-2024, 2024
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We reconstructed annual cropland density and crop type maps, including nine major crop types (corn, soybean, winter wheat, spring wheat, durum wheat, cotton, sorghum, barley, and rice), from 1850 to 2021 at 1 km × 1 km resolution. We found that the US total crop acreage has increased by 118 × 106 ha (118 Mha), mainly driven by corn (30 Mha) and soybean (35 Mha). Additionally, the US cropping diversity experienced an increase in the 1850s–1960s, followed by a decline over the past 6 decades.
Fang Chen, Lei Wang, Yu Wang, Haiying Zhang, Ning Wang, Pengfei Ma, and Bo Yu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3369–3382, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3369-2024, 2024
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Storage tanks are responsible for approximately 25 % of CH4 emissions in the atmosphere, exacerbating climate warming. Currently there is no publicly accessible storage tank inventory. We generated the first high-spatial-resolution (1–2 m) storage tank dataset (STD) over 92 typical cities in China in 2021, totaling 14 461 storage tanks with the construction year from 2000–2021. It shows significant agreement with CH4 emission spatially and temporally, promoting the CH4 control strategy proposal.
Xingyi Huang, Yuwei Yin, Luwei Feng, Xiaoye Tong, Xiaoxin Zhang, Jiangrong Li, and Feng Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3307–3332, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3307-2024, 2024
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The Tibetan Plateau, with its diverse vegetation ranging from forests to alpine grasslands, plays a key role in understanding climate change impacts. Existing maps lack detail or miss unique ecosystems. Our research, using advanced satellite technology and machine learning, produced the map TP_LC10-2022. Comparisons with other maps revealed TP_LC10-2022's excellence in capturing local variations. Our map is significant for in-depth ecological studies.
Qinghang Mei, Zhao Zhang, Jichong Han, Jie Song, Jinwei Dong, Huaqing Wu, Jialu Xu, and Fulu Tao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3213–3231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3213-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3213-2024, 2024
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In order to make up for the lack of long-term soybean planting area maps in China, we firstly generated a dataset of soybean planting area with a spatial resolution of 10 m for major producing areas in China from 2017 to 2021 (ChinaSoyArea10m). Compared with existing datasets, ChinaSoyArea10m has higher consistency with census data and further improvement in spatial details. The dataset can provide reliable support for subsequent studies on yield monitoring and food security.
Maximilian Freudenberg, Sebastian Schnell, and Paul Magdon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-206, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Classifying tree species in satellite images is an important task for environmental monitoring and forest management. Here we present a dataset containing Sentinel-2 satellite pixel time series of individual trees, intended for training machine learning models. The dataset was created by merging information from the German national forest inventory in 2012 with satellite data. It sparsely covers entire Germany for the years 2015 to 2022 and comprises 51 species and species groups.
Yavar Pourmohamad, John T. Abatzoglou, Erin J. Belval, Erica Fleishman, Karen Short, Matthew C. Reeves, Nicholas Nauslar, Philip E. Higuera, Eric Henderson, Sawyer Ball, Amir AghaKouchak, Jeffrey P. Prestemon, Julia Olszewski, and Mojtaba Sadegh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3045–3060, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3045-2024, 2024
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The FPA FOD-Attributes dataset provides > 300 biological, physical, social, and administrative attributes associated with > 2.3×106 wildfire incidents across the US from 1992 to 2020. The dataset can be used to (1) answer numerous questions about the covariates associated with human- and lightning-caused wildfires and (2) support descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive wildfire analytics, including the development of machine learning models.
Ewa Grabska-Szwagrzyk, Dirk Tiede, Martin Sudmanns, and Jacek Kozak
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2877–2891, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2877-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2877-2024, 2024
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We accurately mapped 16 dominant tree species and genera in Poland using Sentinel-2 observations from short periods in spring, summer, and autumn (2018–2021). The classification achieved more than 80% accuracy in country-wide forest species mapping, with variation based on species, region, and observation frequency. Freely accessible resources, including the forest tree species map and training and test data, can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10180469.
Charles E. Miller, Peter C. Griffith, Elizabeth Hoy, Naiara S. Pinto, Yunling Lou, Scott Hensley, Bruce D. Chapman, Jennifer Baltzer, Kazem Bakian-Dogaheh, W. Robert Bolton, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Richard H. Chen, Byung-Hun Choe, Leah K. Clayton, Thomas A. Douglas, Nancy French, Jean E. Holloway, Gang Hong, Lingcao Huang, Go Iwahana, Liza Jenkins, John S. Kimball, Tatiana Loboda, Michelle Mack, Philip Marsh, Roger J. Michaelides, Mahta Moghaddam, Andrew Parsekian, Kevin Schaefer, Paul R. Siqueira, Debjani Singh, Alireza Tabatabaeenejad, Merritt Turetsky, Ridha Touzi, Elizabeth Wig, Cathy J. Wilson, Paul Wilson, Stan D. Wullschleger, Yonghong Yi, Howard A. Zebker, Yu Zhang, Yuhuan Zhao, and Scott J. Goetz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2605–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2605-2024, 2024
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NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) conducted airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) surveys of over 120 000 km2 in Alaska and northwestern Canada during 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022. This paper summarizes those results and provides links to details on ~ 80 individual flight lines. This paper is presented as a guide to enable interested readers to fully explore the ABoVE L- and P-band SAR data.
Ying Tu, Shengbiao Wu, Bin Chen, Qihao Weng, Yuqi Bai, Jun Yang, Le Yu, and Bing Xu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2297–2316, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2297-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2297-2024, 2024
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We developed the first 30 m annual cropland dataset of China (CACD) for 1986–2021. The overall accuracy of CACD reached up to 0.93±0.01 and was superior to other products. Our fine-resolution cropland maps offer valuable information for diverse applications and decision-making processes in the future.
Lingcheng Li, Gautam Bisht, Dalei Hao, and L. Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2007–2032, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2007-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2007-2024, 2024
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This study fills a gap to meet the emerging needs of kilometer-scale Earth system modeling by developing global 1 km land surface parameters for land use, vegetation, soil, and topography. Our demonstration simulations highlight the substantial impacts of these parameters on spatial variability and information loss in water and energy simulations. Using advanced explainable machine learning methods, we identified influential factors driving spatial variability and information loss.
Jiahao Shi, Hua Yuan, Wanyi Lin, Wenzong Dong, Hongbin Liang, Zhuo Liu, Jianxin Zeng, Haolin Zhang, Nan Wei, Zhongwang Wei, Shupeng Zhang, Shaofeng Liu, Xingjie Lu, and Yongjiu Dai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-77, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Flux tower data are widely recognized as benchmarking data for land surface models, but insufficient emphasis on and deficiency in site attribute data limits their true value. We collect site-observed vegetation, soil, and topography data from various sources. The final dataset encompasses 90 sites globally with relatively complete site attribute data and high-quality flux validation data. This work has provided more reliable site attribute data, benefiting land surface model development.
Hui Li, Xiaobo Wang, Shaoqiang Wang, Jinyuan Liu, Yuanyuan Liu, Zhenhai Liu, Shiliang Chen, Qinyi Wang, Tongtong Zhu, Lunche Wang, and Lizhe Wang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1689–1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1689-2024, 2024
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Utilizing satellite remote sensing data, we established a multi-season rice calendar dataset named ChinaRiceCalendar. It exhibits strong alignment with field observations collected by agricultural meteorological stations across China. ChinaRiceCalendar stands as a reliable dataset for investigating and optimizing the spatiotemporal dynamics of rice phenology in China, particularly in the context of climate and land use changes.
Giulia Ronchetti, Luigi Nisini Scacchiafichi, Lorenzo Seguini, Iacopo Cerrani, and Marijn van der Velde
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1623–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1623-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1623-2024, 2024
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We present a dataset of EU-wide harmonized subnational crop area, production, and yield statistics with information on data sources, processing steps, missing and derived data, and quality checks. Statistical records (344 282) collected from 1975 to 2020 for soft and durum wheat, winter and spring barley, grain maize, sunflower, and sugar beet were aligned with the EUROSTAT crop legend and the 2016 territorial classification for 961 regions. Time series have a median length of 21 years.
Xiao Zhang, Tingting Zhao, Hong Xu, Wendi Liu, Jinqing Wang, Xidong Chen, and Liangyun Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1353–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1353-2024, 2024
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This work describes GLC_FCS30D, the first global 30 m land-cover dynamics monitoring dataset, which contains 35 land-cover subcategories and covers the period of 1985–2022 in 26 time steps (its maps are updated every 5 years before 2000 and annually after 2000).
Qiangqiang Sun, Ping Zhang, Xin Jiao, Xin Lin, Wenkai Duan, Su Ma, Qidi Pan, Lu Chen, Yongxiang Zhang, Shucheng You, Shunxi Liu, Jinmin Hao, Hong Li, and Danfeng Sun
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1333–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1333-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1333-2024, 2024
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To provide multifaceted changes under climate change and anthropogenic impacts, we estimated monthly vegetation and soil fractions in 2001–2022, providing an accurate estimate of surface heterogeneous composition, better than vegetation index and vegetation continuous-field products. We find a greening trend on Earth except for the tropics. A combination of interactive changes in vegetation and soil can be adopted as a valuable measurement of climate change and anthropogenic impacts.
Kai Cheng, Yuling Chen, Tianyu Xiang, Haitao Yang, Weiyan Liu, Yu Ren, Hongcan Guan, Tianyu Hu, Qin Ma, and Qinghua Guo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 803–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-803-2024, 2024
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To quantify forest carbon stock and its future potential accurately, we generated a 30 m resolution forest age map for China in 2020 using multisource remote sensing datasets based on machine learning and time series analysis approaches. Validation with independent field samples indicated that the mapped forest age had an R2 of 0.51--0.63. Nationally, the average forest age is 56.1 years (standard deviation of 32.7 years).
Fuyou Tian, Bingfang Wu, Hongwei Zeng, Miao Zhang, Weiwei Zhu, Nana Yan, Yuming Lu, and Yifan Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-536, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-536, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Our team has developed an irrigation map with 100 m resolution, which is more detailed than existing one. We used satellite images and focused on the crop status during the dry conditions. We found that 23.4 % of global cropland is irrigated, with the most extensive areas in India, China, the US, and Pakistan. We also explored the distribution of central pivot systems, which are commonly used in the US and Saudi Arabia. This new map can better support water management and food security globally.
Wolfgang Alexander Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Ana Bastos, Giulia Conchedda, Thomas Gasser, Giacomo Grassi, Richard A. Houghton, Francesco Nicola Tubiello, Stephen Sitch, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 605–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, 2024
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We provide and compare country-level estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes from a variety and large number of models, bottom-up estimates, and country reports for the period 1950–2021. Although net fluxes are small in many countries, they are often composed of large compensating emissions and removals. In many countries, the estimates agree well once their individual characteristics are accounted for, but in other countries, including some of the largest emitters, substantial uncertainties exist.
Cameron I. Ludemann, Nathan Wanner, Pauline Chivenge, Achim Dobermann, Rasmus Einarsson, Patricio Grassini, Armelle Gruere, Kevin Jackson, Luis Lassaletta, Federico Maggi, Griffiths Obli-Laryea, Martin K. van Ittersum, Srishti Vishwakarma, Xin Zhang, and Francesco N. Tubiello
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 525–541, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-525-2024, 2024
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Nutrient budgets help identify the excess or insufficient use of fertilizers and other nutrient sources in agriculture. They allow the calculation of indicators, such as the nutrient balance (surplus or deficit) and nutrient use efficiency, that help to monitor agricultural productivity and sustainability. This article describes a global cropland nutrient budget that provides data on 205 countries and territories from 1961 to 2020 (data available at https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/ESB).
Yuanwei Qin, Xiangming Xiao, Hao Tang, Ralph Dubayah, Russell Doughty, Diyou Liu, Fang Liu, Yosio Shimabukuro, Egidio Arai, Xinxin Wang, and Berrien Moore III
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 321–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-321-2024, 2024
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Forest definition has two major biophysical parameters, i.e., canopy height and canopy coverage. However, few studies have assessed forest cover maps in terms of these two parameters at a large scale. Here, we assessed the annual forest cover maps in the Brazilian Amazon using 1.1 million footprints of canopy height and canopy coverage. Over 93 % of our forest cover maps are consistent with the FAO forest definition, showing the high accuracy of these forest cover maps in the Brazilian Amazon.
Xiangan Liang, Qiang Liu, Jie Wang, Shuang Chen, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 177–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-177-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-177-2024, 2024
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The state-of-the-art MODIS surface reflectance products suffer from temporal and spatial gaps, which make it difficult to characterize the continuous variation of the terrestrial surface. We proposed a framework for generating the first global 500 m daily seamless data cubes (SDC500), covering the period from 2000 to 2022. We believe that the SDC500 dataset can interest other researchers who study land cover mapping, quantitative remote sensing, and ecological science.
Rémy Ballot, Nicolas Guilpart, and Marie-Hélène Jeuffroy
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5651–5666, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5651-2023, 2023
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Assessing the benefits of crop diversification – a key element of agroecological transition – on a large scale requires a description of current crop sequences as a baseline, which is lacking at the scale of Europe. To fill this gap, we used a dataset that provides temporally and spatially incomplete land cover information to create a map of dominant crop sequence types for Europe over 2012–2018. This map is a useful baseline for assessing the benefits of future crop diversification.
Kristof Van Tricht, Jeroen Degerickx, Sven Gilliams, Daniele Zanaga, Marjorie Battude, Alex Grosu, Joost Brombacher, Myroslava Lesiv, Juan Carlos Laso Bayas, Santosh Karanam, Steffen Fritz, Inbal Becker-Reshef, Belén Franch, Bertran Mollà-Bononad, Hendrik Boogaard, Arun Kumar Pratihast, Benjamin Koetz, and Zoltan Szantoi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5491–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5491-2023, 2023
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WorldCereal is a global mapping system that addresses food security challenges. It provides seasonal updates on crop areas and irrigation practices, enabling informed decision-making for sustainable agriculture. Our global products offer insights into temporary crop extent, seasonal crop type maps, and seasonal irrigation patterns. WorldCereal is an open-source tool that utilizes space-based technologies, revolutionizing global agricultural mapping.
Yangyang Fu, Xiuzhi Chen, Chaoqing Song, Xiaojuan Huang, Jie Dong, Qiongyan Peng, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-432, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-432, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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This study proposed the Winter-Triticeae Crops Index (WTCI)，which had great performance and stable spatiotemporal transferability in identifying winter-triticeae crops in 65 countries worldwide, with an overall accuracy of 87.7 %. The first global 30 m resolution distribution maps of winter-triticeae crops from 2017 to 2022 were further produced based on the WTCI method. The product can serve as an important basis for agricultural applications.
Francesco N. Tubiello, Giulia Conchedda, Leon Casse, Pengyu Hao, Giorgia De Santis, and Zhongxin Chen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4997–5015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4997-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4997-2023, 2023
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We describe a new dataset of cropland area circa the year 2020, with global coverage and country detail. Data are generated from geospatial information on the agreement characteristics of six high-resolution cropland maps. By helping to highlight features of cropland characteristics and underlying causes for agreement across land cover products, the dataset can be used as a tool to help guide future mapping efforts towards improved agricultural monitoring.
Martin Schwartz, Philippe Ciais, Aurélien De Truchis, Jérôme Chave, Catherine Ottlé, Cedric Vega, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Manuel Nicolas, Sami Jouaber, Siyu Liu, Martin Brandt, and Ibrahim Fayad
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4927–4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4927-2023, 2023
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As forests play a key role in climate-related issues, their accurate monitoring is critical to reduce global carbon emissions effectively. Based on open-access remote-sensing sensors, and artificial intelligence methods, we created high-resolution tree height, wood volume, and biomass maps of metropolitan France that outperform previous products. This study, based on freely available data, provides essential information to support climate-efficient forest management policies at a low cost.
Zhuohong Li, Wei He, Mofan Cheng, Jingxin Hu, Guangyi Yang, and Hongyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4749–4780, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4749-2023, 2023
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Nowadays, a very-high-resolution land-cover (LC) map with national coverage is still unavailable in China, hindering efficient resource allocation. To fill this gap, the first 1 m resolution LC map of China, SinoLC-1, was built. The results showed that SinoLC-1 had an overall accuracy of 73.61 % and conformed to the official survey reports. Comparison with other datasets suggests that SinoLC-1 can be a better support for downstream applications and provide more accurate LC information to users.
Johannes H. Uhl, Dominic Royé, Keith Burghardt, José A. Aldrey Vázquez, Manuel Borobio Sanchiz, and Stefan Leyk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4713–4747, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4713-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4713-2023, 2023
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Historical, fine-grained geospatial datasets on built-up areas are rarely available, constraining studies of urbanization, settlement evolution, or the dynamics of human–environment interactions to recent decades. In order to provide such historical data, we used publicly available cadastral building data for Spain and created a series of gridded surfaces, measuring age, physical, and land-use-related features of the built environment in Spain and the evolution of settlements from 1900 to 2020.
Christopher G. Marston, Aneurin W. O'Neil, R. Daniel Morton, Claire M. Wood, and Clare S. Rowland
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4631–4649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4631-2023, 2023
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The UK Land Cover Map 2021 (LCM2021) is a UK-wide land cover data set, with 21- and 10-class versions. It is intended to support a broad range of UK environmental research, including ecological and hydrological research. LCM2021 was produced by classifying Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. LCM2021 is distributed as a suite of products to facilitate easy use for a range of applications. To support research at different spatial scales it includes 10 m, 25 m and 1 km resolution products.
Yu Zhao, Shaoyu Han, Jie Zheng, Hanyu Xue, Zhenhai Li, Yang Meng, Xuguang Li, Xiaodong Yang, Zhenhong Li, Shuhong Cai, and Guijun Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4047–4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4047-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4047-2023, 2023
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In the present study, we generated a 30 m Chinese winter wheat yield dataset from 2016 to 2021, called ChinaWheatYield30m. The dataset has high spatial resolution and great accuracy. It is the highest-resolution yield dataset known. Such a dataset will provide basic knowledge of detailed wheat yield distribution, which can be applied for many purposes including crop production modeling or regional climate evaluation.
Feng Yang and Zhenzhong Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4011–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4011-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4011-2023, 2023
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We generated a 4.77 m resolution annual tree cover map product for Southeast Asia (SEA) for 2016–2021 using Planet-NICFI and Sentinel-1 imagery. Maps were created with good accuracy and high consistency during 2016–2021. The baseline maps at 4.77 m can be converted to forest cover maps for SEA at various resolutions to meet different users’ needs. Our products can help resolve rounding errors in forest cover mapping by counting isolated trees and monitoring long, narrow forest cover removal.
Adrià Descals, Serge Wich, Zoltan Szantoi, Matthew J. Struebig, Rona Dennis, Zoe Hatton, Thina Ariffin, Nabillah Unus, David L. A. Gaveau, and Erik Meijaard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3991–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3991-2023, 2023
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The spatial extent of coconut palm is understudied despite its increasing demand and associated impacts. We present the first global coconut palm layer at 20 m resolution. The layer was produced using deep learning and remotely sensed data. The global coconut area estimate is 12.31 Mha for dense coconut palm, but the estimate is 3 times larger when sparse coconut palm is considered. This means that coconut production can likely increase on the lands currently allocated to coconut palm.
Peter Hoffmann, Vanessa Reinhart, Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Edouard L. Davin, Christina Asmus, Benjamin Bechtel, Jürgen Böhner, Eleni Katragkou, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3819–3852, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3819-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3819-2023, 2023
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This paper introduces the new high-resolution land use and land cover change dataset LUCAS LUC for Europe (version 1.1), tailored for use in regional climate models. Historical and projected future land use change information from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset is translated into annual plant functional type changes from 1950 to 2015 and 2016 to 2100, respectively, by employing a newly developed land use translator.
Wanru He, Xuecao Li, Yuyu Zhou, Zitong Shi, Guojiang Yu, Tengyun Hu, Yixuan Wang, Jianxi Huang, Tiecheng Bai, Zhongchang Sun, Xiaoping Liu, and Peng Gong
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3623–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3623-2023, 2023
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Most existing global urban products with future projections were developed in urban and non-urban categories, which ignores the gradual change of urban development at the local scale. Using annual global urban extent data from 1985 to 2015, we forecasted global urban fractional changes under eight scenarios throughout 2100. The developed dataset can provide spatially explicit information on urban fractions at 1 km resolution, which helps support various urban studies (e.g., urban heat island).
Zeping Liu, Hong Tang, Lin Feng, and Siqing Lyu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3547–3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3547-2023, 2023
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Large-scale maps of building rooftop area (BRA) are crucial for addressing policy decisions and sustainable development. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method for high-resolution BRA mapping (2.5 m) from Sentinel-2 imagery (10 m). The resulting China building rooftop area dataset (CBRA) is the first multi-annual (2016–2021) and high-resolution (2.5 m) BRA dataset in China. Cross-comparisons show that the CBRA achieves the best performance in capturing the spatiotemporal information.
Ruoque Shen, Baihong Pan, Qiongyan Peng, Jie Dong, Xuebing Chen, Xi Zhang, Tao Ye, Jianxi Huang, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3203–3222, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3203-2023, 2023
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Paddy rice is the second-largest grain crop in China and plays an important role in ensuring global food security. This study developed a new rice-mapping method and produced distribution maps of single-season rice in 21 provincial administrative regions of China from 2017 to 2022 at a 10 or 20 m resolution. The accuracy was examined using 108 195 survey samples and county-level statistical data, and we found that the distribution maps have good accuracy.
Charles R. Lane, Ellen D'Amico, Jay R. Christensen, Heather E. Golden, Qiusheng Wu, and Adnan Rajib
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2927–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2927-2023, 2023
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Non-floodplain wetlands (NFWs) – wetlands located outside floodplains – confer watershed-scale resilience to hydrological, biogeochemical, and biotic disturbances. Although they are frequently unmapped, we identified ~ 33 million NFWs covering > 16 × 10 km2 across the globe. NFWs constitute the majority of the world's wetlands (53 %). Despite their small size (median 0.039 km2), these imperiled systems have an outsized impact on watershed functions and sustainability and require protection.
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Short summary
Striking differences exist in estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse gas inventories and the IPCC assessment reports. These differences hamper an accurate assessment of the collective progress under the Paris Agreement. By implementing an approach that conceptually reconciles land-use CO2 flux from national inventories and the global models used by the IPCC, our study is an important step forward for increasing confidence in land-use CO2 flux estimates.
Striking differences exist in estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse...
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