Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Data description article
| 
30 Jun 2025
Data description article |
| 30 Jun 2025
| 30 Jun 2025
Smoothed monthly Greenland ice sheet elevation changes during 2003–2023
DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Helene Seroussi
Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
Mathieu Morlighem
Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
William Colgan
Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
Veit Helm
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany
Gong Cheng
Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
Danjal Berg
DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Valentina R. Barletta
DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Nicolaj K. Larsen
Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
William Kochtitzky
School of Marine and Environmental Programs, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA
Michiel van den Broeke
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Kurt H. Kjær
Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
Andy Aschwanden
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Brice Noël
Laboratoire de Climatologie et Topoclimatologie, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Jason E. Box
Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
Joseph A. MacGregor
Cryospheric Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Robert S. Fausto
Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
Kenneth D. Mankoff
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Autonomic Integra LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA
Ian M. Howat
Byrd Polar Research Center and School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
Kuba Oniszk
DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Dominik Fahrner
Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
Anja Løkkegaard
Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
Eigil Y. H. Lippert
DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Alicia Bråtner
DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
Javed Hassan
DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
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The Cryosphere, 20, 1071–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1071-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1071-2026, 2026
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Jamie Barnett, Felicity A. Holmes, Sarah L. Greenwood, Mathieu Morlighem, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
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The Cryosphere, 20, 427–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-427-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-427-2026, 2026
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Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Bert Wouters, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
The Cryosphere, 20, 87–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-87-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-87-2026, 2026
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The Cryosphere, 19, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, 2025
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Maria T. Kappelsberger, Johan Nilsson, Martin Horwath, Veit Helm, and Alex S. Gardner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5745, 2025
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We compare surface elevation changes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet interior as derived from satellite radar altimetry and laser altimetry between 2019 and 2024. Both methods indicate an increase in surface elevation across most of the study area, coinciding with an episode of excess snow accumulation as modelled. However, rates of surface elevation increase from radar altimetry are systematically lower than those from laser altimetry.
Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Richard Porter-Smith, Sue Cook, Eva Cougnon, David E. Gwyther, Wilma G. C. Huneke, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Xylar Asay-Davis, Fabio Boeira Dias, Michael S. Dinniman, David Holland, Kazuya Kusahara, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Keith W. Nicholls, Charles Pelletier, Ole Richter, Hélène Seroussi, and Ralph Timmermann
The Cryosphere, 19, 6507–6525, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6507-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6507-2025, 2025
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Steven Franke, Daniel Steinhage, Veit Helm, Tobias Binder, Uwe Nixdorf, Heinrich Miller, Angelika Humbert, Daniela Jansen, Graeme Eagles, Hannes Eisermann, Wilfried Jokat, Antonia Ruppel, Reinhard Drews, Alexandra Zuhr, Amelie Driemel, Andreas Walter, Peter Konopatzky, Robin Heß, Antonie Haas, Roland Koppe, Pascal H. Andreas, and Olaf Eisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5328, 2025
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This review synthesizes 30 years of AWI’s airborne radar research in Antarctica and Greenland, detailing six radar systems and their applications in studying ice dynamics, basal properties, and subglacial landscapes. It highlights scientific breakthroughs—from mapping ancient buried terrains to improving ice-sheet models—and introduces the public release of AWI’s radar datasets via the Radar Data Viewer and PANGAEA, ensuring FAIR-compliant access for future polar research.
Peter Van Katwyk, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Sophie Nowicki, Hélène Seroussi, and Karianne J. Bergen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4914, 2025
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We developed ISEFlow, a new climate emulator model that predicts how melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to future sea levels. Unlike past tools, it uses advanced machine learning to capture complex ice processes, distinguish between different greenhouse gas scenarios, and provide clearer estimates of uncertainty. This makes sea level projections more accurate and reliable, helping scientists and policymakers better plan for climate risks.
Steven Franke, Mara Neudert, Veit Helm, Arttu Jutila, Océane Hames, Niklas Neckel, Stefanie Arndt, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 19, 6319–6339, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6319-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6319-2025, 2025
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Our research explored how icebergs affect the distribution of snow and flooding on Antarctic coastal sea ice. Using aircraft-based radar and laser scanning, we found that icebergs create thick snow drifts on their wind-facing sides and leave snow-free zones in their lee. The weight of these snow drifts often causes the ice below to flood, forming slush. These patterns, driven by wind and iceberg placement, are crucial for understanding sea ice changes and improving climate models.
Robert S. Fausto, Penelope How, Baptiste Vandecrux, Mads C. Lund, Jason E. Box, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Signe B. Andersen, Dirk van As, Rasmus Bahbah, Michele Citterio, William Colgan, Henrik T. Jakobsgaard, Nanna B. Karlsson, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Signe H. Larsen, Charlotte Olsen, Falk Oraschewski, Anja Rutishauser, Christopher L. Shields, Anne M. Solgaard, Ian T. Stevens, Synne H. Svendsen, Kirsty Langley, Alexandra Messerli, Anders A. Bjørk, Jonas K. Andersen, Jakob Abermann, Jakob Steiner, Rainer Prinz, Berhard Hynek, James M. Lea, Stephen Brough, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-687, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-687, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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In summary, the PROMICE | GC-NET AWS data product update represents a significant advancement in Arctic climate monitoring. Through enhanced station designs, state-of-the-art instrumentation, and a transparent, automated data processing workflow, the dataset offers an essential resource for studying the Greenland Ice Sheet and its periphery, validating climate models, and supporting global assessments of cryospheric change.
Penelope How, Dorthe Petersen, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Katrine Raundrup, Nanna B. Karlsson, Alexandra Messerli, Anja Rutishauser, Jonathan L. Carrivick, James M. Lea, Robert S. Fausto, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, and Signe B. Andersen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6331–6351, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6331-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6331-2025, 2025
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We mapped 2918 ice-marginal lakes across Greenland (2016–2023), revealing changes in size, abundance and temperature. This open dataset improves understanding of terrestrial water storage, glacier dynamics, and Arctic ecology, supporting research on sea level rise, glacier-lake interactions, and sustainable resource planning including hydropower development under Greenland’s climate commitments.
Fredrik Boberg, Nicolaj Hansen, Ruth Mottram, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4360, 2025
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An ensemble of regional climate model simulations is used to estimate the 21st century change in precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet. For the end of the century, the change is in the range 40 to 170 Gt per year, depending on the emission scenario. Using annual values of 2 m air temperature and precipitation, we estimate an increase in precipitation of 35 Gt per year for every degree of warming.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Clara Burgard, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8333–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, 2025
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The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Nicole A. Loeb, Alex Crawford, Brice Noël, and Julienne Stroeve
The Cryosphere, 19, 5403–5422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5403-2025, 2025
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We examine how extreme precipitation days affect the seasonal mass balance (SMB) of land ice in Greenland and the Eastern Canadian Arctic in historical and future simulations. Past extreme precipitation led to higher SMB with snowfall. Future extreme precipitation may lead to the loss of ice mass as more falls as rain rather than snow in some regions, such as southwestern Greenland. Across the region, extreme precipitation becomes more important to seasonal SMB in the future, warmer climate.
Charlotte M. Carter, Steven Franke, Daniela Jansen, Chris R. Stokes, Veit Helm, John Paden, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 19, 5299–5315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5299-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5299-2025, 2025
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The subglacial landforms beneath actively fast-flowing ice in Greenland have not been explored in detail, as digital elevation models have not had a high enough resolution to see these features. We use swath radar imaging to visualise landforms at the onset of an ice stream, revealing mega-scale glacial lineations, that would usually be assumed to be indicative of faster ice flow than the current velocities. Interpretation of the landscape also gives an indication of the properties of the bed.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Nicolaj Hansen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 19, 5157–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5157-2025, 2025
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Perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), year-round bodies of liquid water within firns, can potentially impact ice-shelf and ice-sheet stability. We developed a fast XGBoost firn emulator to predict the 21st-century distribution of PFAs in Antarctica for 12 climatic forcing datasets. Our findings suggest that, in low-emission scenarios, PFAs remain confined to the Antarctic Peninsula. However, in a high-emission scenario, PFAs are projected to expand to a region in West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
Robert G. Bingham, Julien A. Bodart, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Ailsa Chung, Rebecca J. Sanderson, Johannes C. R. Sutter, Olaf Eisen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Joseph A. MacGregor, Neil Ross, Duncan A. Young, David W. Ashmore, Andreas Born, Winnie Chu, Xiangbin Cui, Reinhard Drews, Steven Franke, Vikram Goel, John W. Goodge, A. Clara J. Henry, Antoine Hermant, Benjamin H. Hills, Nicholas Holschuh, Michelle R. Koutnik, Gwendolyn J.-M. C. Leysinger Vieli, Emma J. MacKie, Elisa Mantelli, Carlos Martín, Felix S. L. Ng, Falk M. Oraschewski, Felipe Napoleoni, Frédéric Parrenin, Sergey V. Popov, Therese Rieckh, Rebecca Schlegel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Xueyuan Tang, Thomas O. Teisberg, Kate Winter, Shuai Yan, Harry Davis, Christine F. Dow, Tyler J. Fudge, Tom A. Jordan, Bernd Kulessa, Kenichi Matsuoka, Clara J. Nyqvist, Maryam Rahnemoonfar, Matthew R. Siegfried, Shivangini Singh, Vjeran Višnjević, Rodrigo Zamora, and Alexandra Zuhr
The Cryosphere, 19, 4611–4655, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4611-2025, 2025
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The ice sheets covering Antarctica have built up over millenia through successive snowfall events which become buried and preserved as internal surfaces of equal age detectable with ice-penetrating radar. This paper describes an international initiative working together on these archival data to build a comprehensive 3-D picture of how old the ice is everywhere across Antarctica and how this is being used to reconstruct past and to predict future ice and climate behaviour.
Christian T. Wild, Reinhard Drews, Niklas Neckel, Joohan Lee, Sihyung Kim, Hyangsun Han, Won Sang Lee, Veit Helm, Sebastian Harry Reid Rosier, Oliver J. Marsh, and Wolfgang Rack
The Cryosphere, 19, 4533–4554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4533-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4533-2025, 2025
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The stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet depends on how resistance along the sides of large glaciers slows down the flow of ice into the ocean. We present a method to map ice strength using the effect of ocean tides on floating ice shelves. Incorporating weaker ice in shear zones improves the accuracy of model predictions, compared with satellite observations. This demonstrates the untapped potential of radar satellites to map ice stiffness in the most critical areas for ice sheet stability.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
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Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Luc Houriez, Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Surendra Adhikari, Erik Ivins, Tyler Pelle, Hélène Seroussi, Eric Darve, and Martin Fischer
The Cryosphere, 19, 4355–4372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4355-2025, 2025
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This work examines how interactions between the ice sheet and the Earth’s evolving surface affect the future of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. We find that small features in the bedrock play a major role in these interactions which can delay the glacier’s retreat by decades or even centuries. This can significantly reduce sea-level rise projections. Our study highlights resolution requirements for similar ice–earth models and the importance of bedrock mapping efforts in Antarctica.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
The Cryosphere, 19, 4061–4090, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4061-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present a new surface mass balance (SMB) and near-surface climate product for Antarctica with the regional climate model RACMO2.4p1. We assess the impact of major model updates on the climate of Antarctica. Locally, the SMB has changed substantially but also agrees well with observations. In addition, we show that the SMB components, surface energy budget, albedo, pressure, temperature, and wind speed compare well with in situ and remote sensing observations.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4933–4955, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4933-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4933-2025, 2025
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This paper describes the measurements from the 19 IMAU (Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht) automatic weather stations that operated on the Antarctic ice sheet from 1995 through 2022. These stations also measured the net surface radiation and surface height change, allowing for the quantification of the surface energy and mass balance at hourly resolution. These data are invaluable for the evaluation of atmospheric models and for the detection of climatological changes.
Marte Gé Hofsteenge, Willem Jan van de Berg, Christiaan van Dalum, Kristiina Verro, Maurice van Tiggelen, and Michiel van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4176, 2025
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We use a regional climate model to study how surface melt on Antarctic ice shelves responds to air temperature changes. The relationship is strongly non-linear, mainly due to feedbacks in surface reflectivity, with other energy sources also contributing. Currently colder, drier, and more stable ice shelves will experience more melt at the same temperature than wetter ice shelves, highlighting their vulnerability to fracturing, ice shelf instability, and contributions to global sea-level rise.
Mansa Krishna, Gong Cheng, and Mathieu Morlighem
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3964, 2025
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Estimates of the Greenland Ice Sheet’s contribution to sea level rise are affected by uncertainties in the bed topography. Traditional, physics-based methods for inferring the bed elevation are limited to fast-flowing areas of the ice sheet. We use machine learning models informed with two physical laws to infer the bed elevation for different regions in Greenland, showing that this method can be used to infer the bed elevation in slower-moving, sparsely surveyed regions of the ice sheet.
Anneke L. Vries, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice Noël, Lorenz Meire, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 19, 3897–3914, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3897-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3897-2025, 2025
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Freshwater flows into Greenland's fjords from various sources. Solid ice discharge (e.g. calving icebergs) dominates freshwater input in the southeast and northwest. In contrast, in the southwest, runoff from the ice sheet and tundra are the most significant. Seasonal data revealed that fjord precipitation and tundra runoff contribute up to 11 % and 35 % of the monthly freshwater input, respectively. Our results provide valuable input for ocean models and for researchers studying fjord ecosystems.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Lizz Ultee, Helene Seroussi, Andrew F. Thompson, Lars Ackermann, Youngmin Choi, and Uta Krebs-Kanzow
The Cryosphere, 19, 3749–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025, 2025
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This study examines how random variations in climate may influence future ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet. We find that random climate variations are important for predicting future ice loss from the entire Greenland ice sheet over the next 20–30 years but relatively unimportant after that period. Thus, uncertainty in sea level projections from the effect of climate variability on Greenland may play a role in coastal decision-making about sea level rise over the next few decades.
Mikkel Langgaard Lauritzen, Anne Solgaard, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Bo Møllesøe Vinther, Aslak Grindsted, Brice Noël, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
The Cryosphere, 19, 3599–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3599-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3599-2025, 2025
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We studied the Holocene (past 11 700 years) to understand how the Greenland Ice Sheet has changed. Using 841 computer simulations, we tested different scenarios and matched them to historical ice elevation data, confirming our model's accuracy. Results show that Greenland's melting has raised sea levels by about 5.3 m since the Holocene began and by around 12 mm in just the past 500 years.
Jamie Barnett, Felicity A. Holmes, Joshua Cuzzone, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Matt O'Regan, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 19, 3631–3653, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3631-2025, 2025
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Understanding how ice sheets have changed in the past can allow us to make better predictions for the future. By running a state-of-the-art model of Ryder Glacier, North Greenland, over the past 12 000 years we find that both a warming atmosphere and the ocean play a key role in the evolution of the glacier. Our conclusions stress that accurately quantifying the ice sheet’s interactions with the ocean is required to predict future changes and reliable sea level rise estimates.
Gong Cheng, Mansa Krishna, and Mathieu Morlighem
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5311–5327, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5311-2025, 2025
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Predicting ice sheet contributions to sea level rise is challenging due to limited data and uncertainties in key processes. Traditional models require complex methods that lack flexibility. We developed PINNICLE (Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Ice and CLimatE), an open-source Python library that integrates machine learning with physical laws to improve ice sheet modeling. By combining data and physics, PINNICLE enhances predictions and adaptability, providing a powerful tool for climate research and sea level rise projections.
Martin Rückamp, Gong Cheng, Karlheinz Gutjahr, Marco Möller, Petri K. E. Pellikka, and Christoph Mayer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3150, 2025
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The study simulates the 21st-century evolution of Great Aletsch Glacier and Hintereisferner using full-Stokes ice dynamics and surface mass balance under different emission scenarios. Results show significant ice loss, with Hintereisferner expected to disappear by mid-century. Great Aletsch Glacier vanish by the end of the century under high-emission scenarios, but persist under lower-emission scenarios. These trends agree with large-scale models except some variability.
Aman KC, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Dominik Fahrner, Twila Moon, and Dustin Carroll
The Cryosphere, 19, 3089–3106, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3089-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3089-2025, 2025
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The sum of ice flowing towards a glacier’s terminus and changes in the position of the terminus over time collectively makes up terminus ablation. We found that terminus ablation has more seasonal variability than previously concluded from flux-based estimates of ice discharge. The findings are of importance in understanding the timing and location of the freshwater input to the fjords and surrounding ocean basins affecting local and regional ecosystems and ocean properties.
Angelika Humbert, Veit Helm, Ole Zeising, Niklas Neckel, Matthias H. Braun, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Martin Rückamp, Holger Steeb, Julia Sohn, Matthias Bohnen, and Ralf Müller
The Cryosphere, 19, 3009–3032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3009-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3009-2025, 2025
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We study the evolution of a massive lake on the Greenland Ice Sheet using satellite and airborne data and some modelling. The lake is emptying rapidly. Water flows to the glacier's base through cracks and triangular-shaped moulins that remain visible over the years. Some of them become reactivated. We find features inside the glacier that stem from drainage events with a width of even 1 km. These features are persistent over the years, although they are changing in shape.
Felicity A. Holmes, Jamie Barnett, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 19, 2695–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025, 2025
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Northern Greenland contains some of the ice sheet's last remaining glaciers with floating ice tongues. One of these is Ryder Glacier, which has been relatively stable in recent decades, in contrast to nearby glaciers. Here, we use a computer model to simulate Ryder Glacier until 2300 under both a low- and a high-emissions scenario. Very high levels of surface melt under a high-emissions future lead to a sea level rise contribution that is an order of magnitude higher than under a low-emissions future.
Daniel Abele, Thomas Kleiner, Yannic Fischler, Benjamin Uekermann, Gerasimos Chourdakis, Mathieu Morlighem, Achim Basermann, Christian Bischof, Hans-Joachim Bungartz, and Angelika Humbert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3345, 2025
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For accurate projections of the evolution of continental ice sheets in Greenland and Antartica, interactions between the ice and its environment must be included in simulations. For this purpose, we have implemented adapters for the ice sheet model ISSM and subglacial hydrology model CUAS-MPI for the coupling library preCICE. This simplifies the study of earth systems by allowing the models to interact with each other as well as with models of the oceans or atmosphere with very little effort.
Younghyun Koo, Gong Cheng, Mathieu Morlighem, and Maryam Rahnemoonfar
The Cryosphere, 19, 2583–2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2583-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2583-2025, 2025
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Calving, the breaking of ice bodies from the terminus of a glacier, plays an important role in the mass losses of Greenland ice sheets. However, calving parameters have been poorly understood because of the intensive computational demands of traditional numerical models. To address this issue and find the optimal calving parameter that best represents real observations, we develop deep-learning emulators based on graph neural network architectures.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Mark A. Fahnestock, John D. Paden, Jilu Li, Jeremy P. Harbeck, and Andy Aschwanden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2911–2931, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2911-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2911-2025, 2025
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This paper describes the second version of a deep radiostratigraphic database for the Greenland Ice Sheet. It includes numerous improvements to the original database from 2015 and includes newer high-quality radar sounding data from 2014–2019. It represents a unique and widespread constraint on the history of the ice sheet that could be helpful to initialize and interpret ice-sheet models.
Matthias O. Willen, Bert Wouters, Taco Broerse, Eric Buchta, and Veit Helm
The Cryosphere, 19, 2213–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2213-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2213-2025, 2025
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Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Amundsen Sea Embayment is likely in the near future. Vertical uplift of bedrock due to glacial isostatic adjustment stabilizes the ice sheet and may delay its collapse. So far, only spatially and temporally sparse GPS measurements have been able to observe this bedrock motion. We have combined satellite data and quantified a region-wide bedrock motion that independently matches GPS measurements. This can improve ice sheet predictions.
Ziad Rashed, Alexander A. Robel, and Hélène Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 19, 1775–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, 2025
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Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland's largest glacier, has significantly retreated since the late 1990s in response to warming ocean temperatures. Using a large-ensemble approach, our simulations show that the retreat is mainly initiated by the arrival of warm water but sustained and accelerated by the glacier's position over deeper bed troughs and vigorous calving. We highlight the need for models of ice mélange to project glacier behavior under rapid calving regimes.
Dorota Medrzycka, Luke Copland, Laura Thomson, William Kochtitzky, and Braden Smeda
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 14, 69–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-14-69-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-14-69-2025, 2025
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This work explores the use of aerial photography surveys for mapping glaciers, specifically in challenging environments. Using examples from two glaciers in Arctic Canada, we discuss the main factors which can affect data collection and review methods for capturing and processing images to create accurate topographic maps. Key recommendations include choosing the right camera and positioning equipment and adapting survey design to maximise data quality, even under less-than-ideal conditions.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Aaron Barth, Kelsey Barker, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 19, 1559–1575, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1559-2025, 2025
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We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Last Glacial Maximum conditions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) across the northeastern United States. A complex thermal history existed for the LIS that caused high erosion across most of the NE USA but prevented erosion across high-elevation mountain peaks and areas where ice flow was slow. This has implications for geologic studies which rely on the erosional nature of the LIS to reconstruct its glacial history and landscape evolution.
Peter Van Katwyk, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Sophie Nowicki, Hélène Seroussi, and Karianne J. Bergen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-870, 2025
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We present ISEFlow, a machine learning emulator that predicts how the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets will contribute to sea level. ISEFlow is fast and accurate, allowing scientists to explore different climate scenarios with greater confidence. ISEFlow distinguishes between high and low emissions scenarios, helping us understand how today’s choices impact future sea levels. ISEFlow supports more reliable climate predictions and helps scientists study the future of ice sheets.
Steven Franke, Daniel Steinhage, Veit Helm, Alexandra M. Zuhr, Julien A. Bodart, Olaf Eisen, and Paul Bons
The Cryosphere, 19, 1153–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1153-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1153-2025, 2025
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The study presents internal reflection horizons (IRHs) over an area of 450 000 km² from western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, spanning 4.8–91 ka. Using radar and ice core data, nine IRHs were dated and correlated with volcanic events. The data enhance our understanding of the ice sheet's age–depth architecture, accumulation, and dynamics. The findings inform ice flow models and contribute to Antarctic-wide comparisons of IRHs, supporting efforts toward a 3D age–depth ice sheet model.
Emily Glen, Amber Leeson, Alison F. Banwell, Jennifer Maddalena, Diarmuid Corr, Olivia Atkins, Brice Noël, and Malcolm McMillan
The Cryosphere, 19, 1047–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1047-2025, 2025
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We compare surface meltwater features from optical satellite imagery in the Russell–Leverett glacier catchment during high (2019) and low (2018) melt years. In the high melt year, features appear at higher elevations, meltwater systems are more connected, small lakes are more frequent, and slush is more widespread. These findings provide insights into how a warming climate, where high melt years become common, could alter meltwater distribution and dynamics on the Greenland Ice Sheet.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
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We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Francesca Baldacchino, Nicholas R. Golledge, Mathieu Morlighem, Huw Horgan, Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Daniel P. Lowry, and Laurine van Haastrecht
The Cryosphere, 19, 107–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, 2025
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Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for predicting ice sheet change. Field measurements show clear intra-annual variations in ice flow; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. We show that local perturbations in basal melt can have a significant impact on ice flow speed, but a combination of forcings is likely driving the observed variability in ice flow.
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Paul A. Carling, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Zhang Guotao, Liu Dingzhu, and Javed Hassan
The Cryosphere, 18, 5921–5938, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5921-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5921-2024, 2024
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We explored the growing threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) driven by glacier surges in the Karakoram. Using advanced remote sensing and field data, we identified key lake volumes and depths that indicate potential GLOFs. Our findings improve early warning systems by providing rapid methods to assess lake volumes in remote areas. This research seeks to protect vulnerable communities and contribute to global efforts in predicting and mitigating catastrophic flood risks.
Mai Winstrup, Heidi Ranndal, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Robert S. Fausto, and Louise Sandberg Sørensen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5405–5428, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5405-2024, 2024
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Surface topography across the marginal zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is constantly evolving. Here we present an annual series (2019–2022) of summer digital elevation models (PRODEMs) for the Greenland Ice Sheet margin, covering all outlet glaciers from the ice sheet. The PRODEMs are based on fusion of CryoSat-2 radar altimetry and ICESat-2 laser altimetry. With their high spatial and temporal resolution, the PRODEMs will enable detailed studies of the changes in marginal ice sheet elevations.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
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Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
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The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Signe Hillerup Larsen, Daniel Binder, Anja Rutishauser, Bernhard Hynek, Robert Schjøtt Fausto, and Michele Citterio
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4103-2024, 2024
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The Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring programme has been running since 1995. In 2008, the Glaciological monitoring sub-program GlacioBasis was initiated at the Zackenberg site in northeast Greenland, with a transect of three weather stations on the A. P. Olsen Ice Cap. In 2022, the weather stations were replaced with a more standardized set up. Here, we provide the reprocessed and quality-checked data from 2008 to 2022, i.e., the first 15 years of continued monitoring.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Srinidhi N. Gadde, Maurice van Tiggelen, Tijmen van der Drift, Erik van Meijgaard, Lambertus H. van Ulft, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4065–4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, 2024
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We present a new version of the polar Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), version 2.4p1, and show first results for Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic. We provide an overview of all changes and investigate the impact that they have on the climate of polar regions. By comparing the results with observations and the output from the previous model version, we show that the model performs well regarding the surface mass balance of the ice sheets and near-surface climate.
Veit Helm, Alireza Dehghanpour, Ronny Hänsch, Erik Loebel, Martin Horwath, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 18, 3933–3970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3933-2024, 2024
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We present a new approach (AWI-ICENet1), based on a deep convolutional neural network, for analysing satellite radar altimeter measurements to accurately determine the surface height of ice sheets. Surface height estimates obtained with AWI-ICENet1 (along with related products, such as ice sheet height change and volume change) show improved and unbiased results compared to other products. This is important for the long-term monitoring of ice sheet mass loss and its impact on sea level rise.
Gong Cheng, Mathieu Morlighem, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6227–6247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6227-2024, 2024
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We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the stabilization and reinitialization techniques currently employed in ISSM and Úa for solving level-set equations, specifically those related to the dynamic representation of moving ice fronts within numerical ice sheet models. Our results demonstrate that the streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method outperforms the other approaches. We found that excessively frequent reinitialization can lead to exceptionally high errors in simulations.
Xueyu Zhang, Lin Liu, Brice Noël, and Zhicai Luo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1726, 2024
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This study indicates that the overall characteristics of the upper firn density in the percolation zone could be captured by the choice of appropriate model configurations and climatic forcing, which is necessary for understanding the current mass balance of the GrIS and predicting its future. The modelled firn density in this study generally aligns well with observations from 16 cores, with the relative bias in density ranging from 0.36 % to 6 % at Dye-2 and being within ±5 % at KAN_U.
Anja Rutishauser, Kirk M. Scanlan, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nanna B. Karlsson, Nicolas Jullien, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Robert S. Fausto, and Penelope How
The Cryosphere, 18, 2455–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2455-2024, 2024
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The Greenland Ice Sheet interior is covered by a layer of firn, which is important for surface meltwater runoff and contributions to global sea-level rise. Here, we combine airborne radar sounding and laser altimetry measurements to delineate vertically homogeneous and heterogeneous firn. Our results reveal changes in firn between 2011–2019, aligning well with known climatic events. This approach can be used to outline firn areas primed for significantly changing future meltwater runoff.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 1983–1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, 2024
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We use the IMAU firn densification model to simulate the 21st-century evolution of Antarctic firn air content. Ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total firn air content (FAC) depletion. Our results also underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice slab formation.
Ole Zeising, Niklas Neckel, Nils Dörr, Veit Helm, Daniel Steinhage, Ralph Timmermann, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 18, 1333–1357, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1333-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1333-2024, 2024
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The 79° North Glacier in Greenland has experienced significant changes over the last decades. Due to extreme melt rates, the ice has thinned significantly in the vicinity of the grounding line, where a large subglacial channel has formed since 2010. We attribute these changes to warm ocean currents and increased subglacial discharge from surface melt. However, basal melting has decreased since 2018, indicating colder water inflow into the cavity below the glacier.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
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This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
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A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Matthias O. Willen, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Mirko Scheinert, Veit Helm, Bernd Uebbing, and Jürgen Kusche
The Cryosphere, 18, 775–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-775-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-775-2024, 2024
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Shrinkage of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) leads to sea level rise. Satellite gravimetry measures AIS mass changes. We apply a new method that overcomes two limitations: low spatial resolution and large uncertainties due to the Earth's interior mass changes. To do so, we additionally include data from satellite altimetry and climate and firn modelling, which are evaluated in a globally consistent way with thoroughly characterized errors. The results are in better agreement with independent data.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
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How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Xueyu Zhang, Lin Liu, Brice Noël, and Zhicai Luo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-122, 2024
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In this study, an improved firn densification model is developed by integrating the Bucket scheme and Darcy’s law to assess the capillary retention, refreezing, and runoff of liquid water within the firn layer. This model captures high-density peaks (~917 kg · m-3) or the features of high-density layers caused by the refreezing of liquid water. In general, the modelled firn depth-density profiles at KAN_U and Dye-2 agree well with the in situ measurements.
Anjali Sandip, Ludovic Räss, and Mathieu Morlighem
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 899–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, 2024
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We solve momentum balance for unstructured meshes to predict ice flow for real glaciers using a pseudo-transient method on graphics processing units (GPUs) and compare it to a standard central processing unit (CPU) implementation. We justify the GPU implementation by applying the price-to-performance metric for up to million-grid-point spatial resolutions. This study represents a first step toward leveraging GPU processing power, enabling more accurate polar ice discharge predictions.
Tong Zhang, William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Anja Løkkegaard, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Cunde Xiao
The Cryosphere, 18, 387–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, 2024
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The geothermal heat flux determines how much heat enters from beneath the ice sheet, and thus impacts the temperature and the flow of the ice sheet. In this study we investigate how much geothermal heat flux impacts the initialization of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the Community Ice Sheet Model with two different initialization methods. We find a non-trivial influence of the choice of heat flow boundary conditions on the ice sheet initializations for further designs of ice sheet modeling.
Youngmin Choi, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Alex Gardner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5499–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, 2023
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Ice sheet models are often initialized using snapshot observations of present-day conditions, but this approach has limitations in capturing the transient evolution of the system. To more accurately represent the accelerating changes in glaciers, we employed time-dependent data assimilation. We found that models calibrated with the transient data better capture past trends and more accurately reproduce changes after the calibration period, even with limited observations.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Jason E. Box, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, Nicolas Bayou, William T. Colgan, Nicolas J. Cullen, Robert S. Fausto, Dominik Haas-Artho, Achim Heilig, Derek A. Houtz, Penelope How, Ionut Iosifescu Enescu, Nanna B. Karlsson, Rebecca Kurup Buchholz, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Daniel McGrath, Noah P. Molotch, Bianca Perren, Maiken K. Revheim, Anja Rutishauser, Kevin Sampson, Martin Schneebeli, Sandy Starkweather, Simon Steffen, Jeff Weber, Patrick J. Wright, Henry Jay Zwally, and Konrad Steffen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5467–5489, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5467-2023, 2023
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The Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) comprises stations that have been monitoring the weather on the Greenland Ice Sheet for over 30 years. These stations are being replaced by newer ones maintained by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). The historical data were reprocessed to improve their quality, and key information about the weather stations has been compiled. This augmented dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/VVXGUT (Steffen et al., 2022).
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
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We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Lena G. Buth, Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Sophie de Roda Husman, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Bert Wouters
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, 2023
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Whyjay Zheng, Shashank Bhushan, Maximillian Van Wyk De Vries, William Kochtitzky, David Shean, Luke Copland, Christine Dow, Renette Jones-Ivey, and Fernando Pérez
The Cryosphere, 17, 4063–4078, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4063-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4063-2023, 2023
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We design and propose a method that can evaluate the quality of glacier velocity maps. The method includes two numbers that we can calculate for each velocity map. Based on statistics and ice flow physics, velocity maps with numbers close to the recommended values are considered to have good quality. We test the method using the data from Kaskawulsh Glacier, Canada, and release an open-sourced software tool called GLAcier Feature Tracking testkit (GLAFT) to help users assess their velocity maps.
Anja Løkkegaard, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Christian Zdanowicz, Gary D. Clow, Martin P. Lüthi, Samuel H. Doyle, Henrik H. Thomsen, David Fisher, Joel Harper, Andy Aschwanden, Bo M. Vinther, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Harry Zekollari, Toby Meierbachtol, Ian McDowell, Neil Humphrey, Anne Solgaard, Nanna B. Karlsson, Shfaqat A. Khan, Benjamin Hills, Robert Law, Bryn Hubbard, Poul Christoffersen, Mylène Jacquemart, Julien Seguinot, Robert S. Fausto, and William T. Colgan
The Cryosphere, 17, 3829–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023, 2023
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This study presents a database compiling 95 ice temperature profiles from the Greenland ice sheet and peripheral ice caps. Ice viscosity and hence ice flow are highly sensitive to ice temperature. To highlight the value of the database in evaluating ice flow simulations, profiles from the Greenland ice sheet are compared to a modeled temperature field. Reoccurring discrepancies between modeled and observed temperatures provide insight on the difficulties faced when simulating ice temperatures.
Ailsa Chung, Frédéric Parrenin, Daniel Steinhage, Robert Mulvaney, Carlos Martín, Marie G. P. Cavitte, David A. Lilien, Veit Helm, Drew Taylor, Prasad Gogineni, Catherine Ritz, Massimo Frezzotti, Charles O'Neill, Heinrich Miller, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 17, 3461–3483, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3461-2023, 2023
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We combined a numerical model with radar measurements in order to determine the age of ice in the Dome C region of Antarctica. Our results show that at the current ice core drilling sites on Little Dome C, the maximum age of the ice is almost 1.5 Ma. We also highlight a new potential drill site called North Patch with ice up to 2 Ma. Finally, we explore the nature of a stagnant ice layer at the base of the ice sheet which has been independently observed and modelled but is not well understood.
Sarah A. Woodroffe, Leanne M. Wake, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Antony J. Long, and Kurt H. Kjær
Clim. Past, 19, 1585–1606, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1585-2023, 2023
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Salt marsh in SE Greenland records sea level changes over the past 300 years in sediments and microfossils. The pattern is rising sea level until ~ 1880 CE and sea level fall since. This disagrees with modelled sea level, which overpredicts sea level fall by at least 0.5 m. This is the same even when reducing the overall amount of Greenland ice sheet melt and allowing for more time. Fitting the model to the data leaves ~ 3 mm yr−1 of unexplained sea level rise in SE Greenland since ~ 1880 CE.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
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This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Angelika Humbert, Veit Helm, Niklas Neckel, Ole Zeising, Martin Rückamp, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Erik Loebel, Jörg Brauchle, Karsten Stebner, Dietmar Gross, Rabea Sondershaus, and Ralf Müller
The Cryosphere, 17, 2851–2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, 2023
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The largest floating glacier mass in Greenland, the 79° N Glacier, is showing signs of instability. We investigate how crack formation at the glacier's calving front has changed over the last decades by using satellite imagery and airborne data. The calving front is about to lose contact to stabilizing ice islands. Simulations show that the glacier will accelerate as a result of this, leading to an increase in ice discharge of more than 5.1 % if its calving front retreats by 46 %.
William Colgan, Christopher Shields, Pavel Talalay, Xiaopeng Fan, Austin P. Lines, Joshua Elliott, Harihar Rajaram, Kenneth Mankoff, Morten Jensen, Mira Backes, Yunchen Liu, Xianzhe Wei, Nanna B. Karlsson, Henrik Spanggård, and Allan Ø. Pedersen
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 12, 121–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-12-121-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-12-121-2023, 2023
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We describe a new drill for glaciers and ice sheets. Instead of drilling down into the ice, via mechanical action, our drill melts into the ice. Our goal is simply to pull a cable of temperature sensors on a one-way trip down to the ice–bed interface. Here, we describe the design and testing of our drill. Under laboratory conditions, our melt-tip drill has an efficiency of ∼ 35 % with a theoretical maximum penetration rate of ∼ 12 m h−1. Under field conditions, our efficiency is just ∼ 15 %.
Michael J. Bentley, James A. Smith, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Margaret R. Lindeman, Brice R. Rea, Angelika Humbert, Timothy P. Lane, Christopher M. Darvill, Jeremy M. Lloyd, Fiamma Straneo, Veit Helm, and David H. Roberts
The Cryosphere, 17, 1821–1837, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1821-2023, 2023
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The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream is a major outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Some of its outlet glaciers and ice shelves have been breaking up and retreating, with inflows of warm ocean water identified as the likely reason. Here we report direct measurements of warm ocean water in an unusual lake that is connected to the ocean beneath the ice shelf in front of the 79° N Glacier. This glacier has not yet shown much retreat, but the presence of warm water makes future retreat more likely.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 17, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, 2023
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Firn is the transition of snow to glacier ice and covers 99 % of the Antarctic ice sheet. Knowledge about the firn layer and its variability is important, as it impacts satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. Also, firn contains pores in which nearly all of the surface melt is retained. Here, we improve a semi-empirical firn model and simulate the firn characteristics for the period 1979–2020. We evaluate the performance with field and satellite measures and test its sensitivity.
Julien A. Bodart, Robert G. Bingham, Duncan A. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, David W. Ashmore, Enrica Quartini, Andrew S. Hein, David G. Vaughan, and Donald D. Blankenship
The Cryosphere, 17, 1497–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023, 2023
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Estimating how West Antarctica will change in response to future climatic change depends on our understanding of past ice processes. Here, we use a reflector widely visible on airborne radar data across West Antarctica to estimate accumulation rates over the past 4700 years. By comparing our estimates with current atmospheric data, we find that accumulation rates were 18 % greater than modern rates. This has implications for our understanding of past ice processes in the region.
Eva Friis Møller, Asbjørn Christensen, Janus Larsen, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Mads Hvid Ribergaard, Mikael Sejr, Philip Wallhead, and Marie Maar
Ocean Sci., 19, 403–420, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-403-2023, 2023
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Melt from the Greenland ice sheet and sea ice both influence light and nutrient availability in the Arctic coastal ocean. We use a 3D coupled hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model to evaluate the relative importance of these processes for timing, distribution, and magnitude of phytoplankton production in Disko Bay, west Greenland. Our study indicates that decreasing sea ice and more freshwater discharge can work synergistically and increase primary productivity of the coastal ocean around Greenland.
Mads Dømgaard, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Flora Huiban, Jonathan L. Carrivick, Shfaqat A. Khan, and Anders A. Bjørk
The Cryosphere, 17, 1373–1387, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1373-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1373-2023, 2023
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Sudden releases of meltwater from glacier-dammed lakes can influence ice flow, cause flooding hazards and landscape changes. This study presents a record of 14 drainages from 2007–2021 from a lake in west Greenland. The time series reveals how the lake fluctuates between releasing large and small amounts of drainage water which is caused by a weakening of the damming glacier following the large events. We also find a shift in the water drainage route which increases the risk of flooding hazards.
Marte G. Hofsteenge, Nicolas J. Cullen, Carleen H. Reijmer, Michiel van den Broeke, Marwan Katurji, and John F. Orwin
The Cryosphere, 16, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, 2022
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In the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), foehn winds can impact glacial meltwater production and the fragile ecosystem that depends on it. We study these dry and warm winds at Joyce Glacier and show they are caused by a different mechanism than that found for nearby valleys, demonstrating the complex interaction of large-scale winds with the mountains in the MDV. We find that foehn winds increase sublimation of ice, increase heating from the atmosphere, and increase the occurrence and rates of melt.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
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We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, and Ian M. Howat
The Cryosphere, 16, 4679–4700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, 2022
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We estimate that Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, will contribute 5.2–8.7 mm to global sea level in 2007–2100, using an ensemble of model simulations constrained by observations of glacier retreat and speedup. This is a significant fraction of the 40–140 mm from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet predicted by the recent ISMIP6 multi-model ensemble, suggesting that calibrating models against observed velocity changes could result in higher estimates of 21st century sea-level rise from Greenland.
Angelika Humbert, Julia Christmann, Hugh F. J. Corr, Veit Helm, Lea-Sophie Höyns, Coen Hofstede, Ralf Müller, Niklas Neckel, Keith W. Nicholls, Timm Schultz, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Wolovick, and Ole Zeising
The Cryosphere, 16, 4107–4139, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4107-2022, 2022
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Ice shelves are normally flat structures that fringe the Antarctic continent. At some locations they have channels incised into their underside. On Filchner Ice Shelf, such a channel is more than 50 km long and up to 330 m high. We conducted field measurements of basal melt rates and found a maximum of 2 m yr−1. Simulations represent the geometry evolution of the channel reasonably well. There is no reason to assume that this type of melt channel is destabilizing ice shelves.
Jason P. Briner, Caleb K. Walcott, Joerg M. Schaefer, Nicolás E. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, Kristin Poinar, Benjamin A. Keisling, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Mary R. Albert, Tanner Kuhl, and Grant Boeckmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 3933–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, 2022
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The 7.4 m of sea level equivalent stored as Greenland ice is getting smaller every year. The uncertain trajectory of ice loss could be better understood with knowledge of the ice sheet's response to past climate change. Within the bedrock below the present-day ice sheet is an archive of past ice-sheet history. We analyze all available data from Greenland to create maps showing where on the ice sheet scientists can drill, using currently available drills, to obtain sub-ice materials.
Lena G. Buth, Bert Wouters, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
Francesca Baldacchino, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicholas R. Golledge, Huw Horgan, and Alena Malyarenko
The Cryosphere, 16, 3723–3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, 2022
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Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf will evolve in a warming world is important to the future stability of Antarctica. It remains unclear what changes could drive the largest mass loss in the future and where places are most likely to trigger larger mass losses. Sensitivity maps are modelled showing that the RIS is sensitive to changes in environmental and glaciological controls at regions which are currently experiencing changes. These regions need to be monitored in a warming world.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
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To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Winnie Chu, William T. Colgan, Mark A. Fahnestock, Denis Felikson, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, and Michael Studinger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3033–3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, 2022
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Where the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet is frozen and where it is thawed is not well known, yet knowing this state is increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow there. We produced a second synthesis of knowledge of the basal thermal state of the ice sheet using airborne and satellite observations and numerical models. About one-third of the ice sheet’s bed is likely thawed; two-fifths is likely frozen; and the remainder is too uncertain to specify.
Thomas R. Chudley, Ian M. Howat, Bidhyananda Yadav, and Myoung-Jong Noh
The Cryosphere, 16, 2629–2642, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2629-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2629-2022, 2022
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Sentinel-2 images are subject to distortion due to orthorectification error, which makes it difficult to extract reliable glacier velocity fields from images from different orbits. Here, we use a complete record of velocity fields at four Greenlandic outlet glaciers to empirically estimate the systematic error, allowing us to correct cross-track glacier velocity fields to a comparable accuracy to other medium-resolution satellite datasets.
Mimmi Oksman, Anna Bang Kvorning, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Kristian Kjellerup Kjeldsen, Kenneth David Mankoff, William Colgan, Thorbjørn Joest Andersen, Niels Nørgaard-Pedersen, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Naja Mikkelsen, and Sofia Ribeiro
The Cryosphere, 16, 2471–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2471-2022, 2022
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One of the questions facing the cryosphere community today is how increasing runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet impacts marine ecosystems. To address this, long-term data are essential. Here, we present multi-site records of fjord productivity for SW Greenland back to the 19th century. We show a link between historical freshwater runoff and productivity, which is strongest in the inner fjord – influenced by marine-terminating glaciers – where productivity has increased since the late 1990s.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicolás E. Young, Mathieu Morlighem, Jason P. Briner, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
The Cryosphere, 16, 2355–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, 2022
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We use an ice sheet model to determine what influenced the Greenland Ice Sheet to retreat across a portion of southwestern Greenland during the Holocene (about the last 12 000 years). Our simulations, constrained by observations from geologic markers, show that atmospheric warming and ice melt primarily caused the ice sheet to retreat rapidly across this domain. We find, however, that iceberg calving at the interface where the ice meets the ocean significantly influenced ice mass change.
William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Kenneth Mankoff, Mareen Lösing, John Hopper, Keith Louden, Jörg Ebbing, Flemming G. Christiansen, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Lillemor Claesson Liljedahl, Joseph A. MacGregor, Árni Hjartarson, Stefan Bernstein, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sven Fuchs, Juha Hartikainen, Johan Liakka, Robert S. Fausto, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Anders Bjørk, Jens-Ove Naslund, Finn Mørk, Yasmina Martos, Niels Balling, Thomas Funck, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Dorthe Petersen, Ulrik Gregersen, Gregers Dam, Tove Nielsen, Shfaqat A. Khan, and Anja Løkkegaard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2209–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2209-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2209-2022, 2022
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We assemble all available geothermal heat flow measurements collected in and around Greenland into a new database. We use this database of point measurements, in combination with other geophysical datasets, to model geothermal heat flow in and around Greenland. Our geothermal heat flow model is generally cooler than previous models of Greenland, especially in southern Greenland. It does not suggest any high geothermal heat flows resulting from Icelandic plume activity over 50 million years ago.
Yannic Fischler, Martin Rückamp, Christian Bischof, Vadym Aizinger, Mathieu Morlighem, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3753–3771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, 2022
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Ice sheet models are used to simulate the changes of ice sheets in future but are currently often run in coarse resolution and/or with neglecting important physics to make them affordable in terms of computational costs. We conducted a study simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet in high resolution and adequate physics to test where the ISSM ice sheet code is using most time and what could be done to improve its performance for future computer architectures that allow massive parallel computing.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 16, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, 2022
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In this study, we improve the regional climate model RACMO2 and investigate the climate of Antarctica. We have implemented a new radiative transfer and snow albedo scheme and do several sensitivity experiments. When fully tuned, the results compare well with observations and snow temperature profiles improve. Moreover, small changes in the albedo and the investigated processes can lead to a strong overestimation of melt, locally leading to runoff and a reduced surface mass balance.
Steven Franke, Daniela Jansen, Tobias Binder, John D. Paden, Nils Dörr, Tamara A. Gerber, Heinrich Miller, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Veit Helm, Daniel Steinhage, Ilka Weikusat, Frank Wilhelms, and Olaf Eisen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 763–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-763-2022, 2022
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The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) is the largest ice stream in Greenland. In order to better understand the past and future dynamics of the NEGIS, we present a high-resolution airborne radar data set (EGRIP-NOR-2018) for the onset region of the NEGIS. The survey area is centered at the location of the drill site of the East Greenland Ice-Core Project (EastGRIP), and radar profiles cover both shear margins and are aligned parallel to several flow lines.
Thomas Frank, Henning Åkesson, Basile de Fleurian, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kerim H. Nisancioglu
The Cryosphere, 16, 581–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, 2022
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The shape of a fjord can promote or inhibit glacier retreat in response to climate change. We conduct experiments with a synthetic setup under idealized conditions in a numerical model to study and quantify the processes involved. We find that friction between ice and fjord is the most important factor and that it is possible to directly link ice discharge and grounding line retreat to fjord topography in a quantitative way.
Alexander A. Robel, Earle Wilson, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 16, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, 2022
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Warm seawater may intrude as a thin layer below glaciers in contact with the ocean. Mathematical theory predicts that this intrusion may extend over distances of kilometers under realistic conditions. Computer models demonstrate that if this warm seawater causes melting of a glacier bottom, it can cause rates of glacier ice loss and sea level rise to be up to 2 times faster in response to potential future ocean warming.
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
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Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, and Douglas Brinkerhoff
The Cryosphere, 16, 179–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, 2022
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Projecting the future evolution of Greenland and Antarctica and their potential contribution to sea level rise often relies on computer simulations carried out by numerical ice sheet models. Here we present a new vertically integrated ice sheet model and assess its performance using different benchmarks. The new model shows results comparable to a three-dimensional model at relatively lower computational cost, suggesting that it is an excellent alternative for long-term simulations.
Zhongyang Hu, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Maaike Izeboud, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 5639–5658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, 2021
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Antarctica is shrinking, and part of the mass loss is caused by higher temperatures leading to more snowmelt. We use computer models to estimate the amount of melt, but this can be inaccurate – specifically in the areas with the most melt. This is because the model cannot account for small, darker areas like rocks or darker ice. Thus, we trained a computer using artificial intelligence and satellite images that showed these darker areas. The model computed an improved estimate of melt.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Matt O'Regan, Thomas M. Cronin, Brendan Reilly, Aage Kristian Olsen Alstrup, Laura Gemery, Anna Golub, Larry A. Mayer, Mathieu Morlighem, Matthias Moros, Ole L. Munk, Johan Nilsson, Christof Pearce, Henrieka Detlef, Christian Stranne, Flor Vermassen, Gabriel West, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 15, 4073–4097, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4073-2021, 2021
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Ryder Glacier is a marine-terminating glacier in north Greenland discharging ice into the Lincoln Sea. Here we use marine sediment cores to reconstruct its retreat and advance behavior through the Holocene. We show that while Sherard Osborn Fjord has a physiography conducive to glacier and ice tongue stability, Ryder still retreated more than 40 km inland from its current position by the Middle Holocene. This highlights the sensitivity of north Greenland's marine glaciers to climate change.
Robert S. Fausto, Dirk van As, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Baptiste Vandecrux, Michele Citterio, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, William Colgan, Nanna B. Karlsson, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Niels J. Korsgaard, Signe H. Larsen, Søren Nielsen, Allan Ø. Pedersen, Christopher L. Shields, Anne M. Solgaard, and Jason E. Box
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3819–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3819-2021, 2021
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The Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) has been measuring climate and ice sheet properties since 2007. Here, we present our data product from weather and ice sheet measurements from a network of automatic weather stations mainly located in the melt area of the ice sheet. Currently the PROMICE automatic weather station network includes 25 instrumented sites in Greenland.
Anne Solgaard, Anders Kusk, John Peter Merryman Boncori, Jørgen Dall, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, Michele Citterio, Nanna B. Karlsson, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Niels J. Korsgaard, Signe H. Larsen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3491–3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3491-2021, 2021
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The PROMICE Ice Velocity product is a time series of Greenland Ice Sheet ice velocity mosaics spanning September 2016 to present. It is derived from Sentinel-1 SAR data and has a spatial resolution of 500 m. Each mosaic spans 24 d (two Sentinel-1 cycles), and a new one is posted every 12 d (every Sentinel-1A cycle). The spatial comprehensiveness and temporal consistency make the product ideal for monitoring and studying ice-sheet-wide ice discharge and dynamics of glaciers.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Bert Wouters, Jakob F. Steiner, Emile J. Nieuwstraten, Walter W. Immerzeel, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 2601–2621, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, 2021
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We developed a method to estimate the aerodynamic properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using either UAV or ICESat-2 elevation data. We show that this new method is able to reproduce the important spatiotemporal variability in surface aerodynamic roughness, measured by the field observations. The new maps of surface roughness can be used in atmospheric models to improve simulations of surface turbulent heat fluxes and therefore surface energy and mass balance over rough ice worldwide.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Michael Studinger, Emily Arnold, Carlton J. Leuschen, Fernando Rodríguez-Morales, and John D. Paden
The Cryosphere, 15, 2569–2574, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2569-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2569-2021, 2021
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We combine multiple recent global glacier datasets and extend one of them (GlaThiDa) to evaluate past performance of radar-sounding surveys of the thickness of Earth's temperate glaciers. An empirical envelope for radar performance as a function of center frequency is determined, its limitations are discussed and its relevance to future radar-sounder survey and system designs is considered.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2545–2573, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2545-2021, 2021
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Numerical models are routinely used to understand the past and future behavior of ice sheets in response to climate evolution. As is always the case with numerical modeling, one needs to minimize biases and numerical artifacts due to the choice of numerical scheme employed in such models. Here, we assess different numerical schemes in time-dependent simulations of ice sheets. We also introduce a new parameterization for the driving stress, the force that drives the ice sheet flow.
Jowan M. Barnes, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Daniel Goldberg, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Mathieu Morlighem, and Jan De Rydt
The Cryosphere, 15, 1975–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, 2021
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Some properties of ice flow models must be initialised using observed data before they can be used to produce reliable predictions of the future. Different models have different ways of doing this, and the process is generally seen as being specific to an individual model. We compare the methods used by three different models and show that they produce similar outputs. We also demonstrate that the outputs from one model can be used in other models without introducing large uncertainties.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 1823–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Absorption of solar radiation is often limited to the surface in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new radiative transfer scheme in the model RACMO2, which allows for internal heating and improves the surface reflectivity. Here, we evaluate its impact on the surface mass and energy budget and (sub)surface temperature, by using observations and the previous model version for the Greenland ice sheet. New results match better with observations and introduce subsurface melt.
Cited articles
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Short summary
The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and be useful for GIS ice sheet modeling.
The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance...
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