Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-355-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
05 Mar 2018
| 05 Mar 2018
A 20-year record (1998–2017) of permafrost, active layer and meteorological conditions at a high Arctic permafrost research site (Bayelva, Spitsbergen)
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research,
Telegrafenberg A43, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Humboldt University, Geography Department, Unter den Linden 6, 10099
Berlin, Germany
Inge Juszak
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research,
Telegrafenberg A43, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Stephan Lange
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research,
Telegrafenberg A43, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Sarah Chadburn
University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, LS2 9JT,
UK
University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical
sciences, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
Eleanor Burke
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Pier Paul Overduin
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research,
Telegrafenberg A43, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Kurt Roth
University of Heidelberg, Institute of Environmental Physics, INF 229,
69120 Heidelberg, Germany
Olaf Ippisch
TU Clausthal, Institute for Mathematics, Erzstr. 1, 38678
Clausthal-Zellerfeld, Germany
Niko Bornemann
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research,
Telegrafenberg A43, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Lielle Stern
University of Heidelberg, Institute of Environmental Physics, INF 229,
69120 Heidelberg, Germany
Isabelle Gouttevin
Irstea, UR HHLY, Centre de Lyon-Villeurbanne, 5 rue de la Doua, BP
32108, 69616 Villeurbanne CEDEX, France
Université Grenoble Alpes, Irstea, UR ETGR, Centre de Grenoble, 2
rue de la Papeterie-BP 76, 38402 St-Martin-d'Hères, France
Ernst Hauber
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Planetary Research,
Rutherfordstr. 2, 12489 Berlin, Germany
Sebastian Westermann
University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, P.O. Box 1047, Blindern,
0316 Oslo, Norway
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The Cryosphere, 17, 5357–5372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023, 2023
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The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
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Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2395–2422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, 2022
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We coupled established models for boreal forest (LAVESI) and permafrost dynamics (CryoGrid) in Siberia to investigate interactions of the diverse vegetation layer with permafrost soils. Our tests showed improved active layer depth estimations and newly included species growth according to their species-specific limits. We conclude that the new model system can be applied to simulate boreal forest dynamics and transitions under global warming and disturbances, expanding our knowledge.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kathleen Savage, Sara June Connon, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A. G. Schuur, Darcy Peter, Christina Minions, Julia Nojeim, Roisin Commane, Craig A. Emmerton, Mathias Goeckede, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Hiroki Iwata, Hideki Kobayashi, Pasi Kolari, Efrén López-Blanco, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Lutz Merbold, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Torsten Sachs, Oliver Sonnentag, Masahito Ueyama, Carolina Voigt, Mika Aurela, Julia Boike, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Eugenie Euskirchen, Achim Grelle, Juha Hatakka, Elyn Humphreys, Järvi Järveoja, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Tuomas Laurila, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Yojiro Matsuura, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Steven F. Oberbauer, Sang-Jong Park, Roman Petrov, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Christopher Schulze, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, William Quinton, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, and Viacheslav I. Zyryanov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 179–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, 2022
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The effects of climate warming on carbon cycling across the Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) remain poorly understood due to the relatively limited distribution of ABZ flux sites. Fortunately, this flux network is constantly increasing, but new measurements are published in various platforms, making it challenging to understand the ABZ carbon cycle as a whole. Here, we compiled a new database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes to help facilitate large-scale assessments of the ABZ carbon cycle.
Katharina Jentzsch, Julia Boike, and Thomas Foken
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7291–7296, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7291-2021, 2021
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Very small CO2 fluxes are measured at night in Arctic regions. If the sensible heat flux is not close to zero under these conditions, the WPL correction will take values on the order of the flux. A special quality control is proposed for these cases.
Lydia Stolpmann, Caroline Coch, Anne Morgenstern, Julia Boike, Michael Fritz, Ulrike Herzschuh, Kathleen Stoof-Leichsenring, Yury Dvornikov, Birgit Heim, Josefine Lenz, Amy Larsen, Katey Walter Anthony, Benjamin Jones, Karen Frey, and Guido Grosse
Biogeosciences, 18, 3917–3936, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3917-2021, 2021
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Our new database summarizes DOC concentrations of 2167 water samples from 1833 lakes in permafrost regions across the Arctic to provide insights into linkages between DOC and environment. We found increasing lake DOC concentration with decreasing permafrost extent and higher DOC concentrations in boreal permafrost sites compared to tundra sites. Our study shows that DOC concentration depends on the environmental properties of a lake, especially permafrost extent, ecoregion, and vegetation.
Juditha Undine Schmidt, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Florence Magnin, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2491–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, 2021
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This study presents rock surface temperatures (RSTs) of steep high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard from 2016 to 2020. The field data show that coastal cliffs are characterized by warmer RSTs than inland locations during winter seasons. By running model simulations, we analyze factors leading to that effect, calculate the surface energy balance and simulate different future scenarios. Both field data and model results can contribute to a further understanding of RST in high-Arctic rock walls.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 15, 1399–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, 2021
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We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect permafrost thaw under climate-warming scenarios. Our results show that representing small-scale heterogeneities in the model can decide whether a landscape is water-logged or well-drained in the future. This in turn affects how fast permafrost thaws under warming. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering small-scale processes in model assessments of permafrost thaw under climate change.
Simone Maria Stuenzi, Julia Boike, William Cable, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Sebastian Westermann, Evgenii S. Zakharov, and Moritz Langer
Biogeosciences, 18, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, 2021
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Boreal forests in eastern Siberia are an essential component of global climate patterns. We use a physically based model and field measurements to study the interactions between forests, permanently frozen ground and the atmosphere. We find that forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing snow cover dynamics and altering the surface energy balance, through absorbing most of the incoming solar radiation and suppressing below-canopy turbulent fluxes.
Jean-Louis Bonne, Hanno Meyer, Melanie Behrens, Julia Boike, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Benjamin Rabe, Toni Schmidt, Lutz Schönicke, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020
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This study introduces 2 years of continuous near-surface in situ observations of the stable isotopic composition of water vapour in parallel with precipitation in north-eastern Siberia. We evaluate the atmospheric transport of moisture towards the region of our observations with simulations constrained by meteorological reanalyses and use this information to interpret the temporal variations of the vapour isotopic composition from seasonal to synoptic timescales.
Inge Grünberg, Evan J. Wilcox, Simon Zwieback, Philip Marsh, and Julia Boike
Biogeosciences, 17, 4261–4279, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4261-2020, 2020
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Based on topsoil temperature data for different vegetation types at a low Arctic tundra site, we found large small-scale variability. Winter temperatures were strongly influenced by vegetation through its effects on snow. Summer temperatures were similar below most vegetation types and not consistently related to late summer permafrost thaw depth. Given that vegetation type defines the relationship between winter and summer soil temperature and thaw depth, it controls permafrost vulnerability.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Westermann, Léo Martin, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 13, 1089–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, 2019
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We studied the stability of ice wedges (massive bodies of ground ice in permafrost) under recent climatic conditions in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia. For this we used a novel modelling approach that takes into account lateral transport of heat, water, and snow and the subsidence of the ground surface due to melting of ground ice. We found that wetter conditions have a destabilizing effect on the ice wedges and associated our simulation results with observations from the study area.
Julia Boike, Jan Nitzbon, Katharina Anders, Mikhail Grigoriev, Dmitry Bolshiyanov, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Niko Bornemann, Anne Morgenstern, Peter Schreiber, Christian Wille, Sarah Chadburn, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019
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Long-term observational data are available from the Samoylov research site in northern Siberia, where meteorological parameters, energy balance, and subsurface observations have been recorded since 1998. This paper presents the temporal data set produced between 2002 and 2017, explaining the instrumentation, calibration, processing, and data quality control. Furthermore, we present a merged dataset of the parameters, which were measured from 1998 onwards.
David Holl, Christian Wille, Torsten Sachs, Peter Schreiber, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Lutz Beckebanze, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, Irina Fedorova, Dimitry Y. Bolshianov, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 221–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, 2019
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We present a multi-annual time series of land–atmosphere carbon dioxide fluxes measured in situ with the eddy covariance technique in the Siberian Arctic. In arctic permafrost regions, climate–carbon feedbacks are amplified. Therefore, increased efforts to better represent these regions in global climate models have been made in recent years. Up to now, the available database of in situ measurements from the Arctic was biased towards Alaska and records from the Eurasian Arctic were scarce.
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019
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Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Isabelle Gouttevin, Moritz Langer, Henning Löwe, Julia Boike, Martin Proksch, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 12, 3693–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, 2018
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Snow insulates the ground from the cold air in the Arctic winter, majorly affecting permafrost. This insulation depends on snow characteristics and is poorly quantified. Here, we characterize it at a carbon-rich permafrost site, using a recent technique that retrieves the 3-D structure of snow and its thermal properties. We adapt a snowpack model enabling the simulation of this insulation over a whole winter. We estimate that local snow variations induce up to a 6 °C spread in soil temperatures.
Simon Zwieback, Steven V. Kokelj, Frank Günther, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse, and Irena Hajnsek
The Cryosphere, 12, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, 2018
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We analyse elevation losses at thaw slumps, at which icy sediments are exposed. As ice requires a large amount of energy to melt, one would expect that mass wasting is governed by the available energy. However, we observe very little mass wasting in June, despite the ample energy supply. Also, in summer, mass wasting is not always energy limited. This highlights the importance of other processes, such as the formation of a protective veneer, in shaping mass wasting at sub-seasonal scales.
Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Julia Boike, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 12, 247–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate how snow cover data from satellites can be used to constrain estimates of snow distributions at sites in the Arctic. In this effort, we make use of data assimilation to combine the information contained in the snow cover data with a simple snow model. By comparing our snow distribution estimates to independent observations, we find that this method performs favorably. Being modular, this method could be applied to other areas as a component of a larger reanalysis system.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Gerhard Krinner, Philipp Porada, Annett Bartsch, Christian Beer, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Julia Boike, Altug Ekici, Bo Elberling, Thomas Friborg, Gustaf Hugelius, Margareta Johansson, Peter Kuhry, Lars Kutzbach, Moritz Langer, Magnus Lund, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Shushi Peng, Ko Van Huissteden, Tao Wang, Sebastian Westermann, Dan Zhu, and Eleanor J. Burke
Biogeosciences, 14, 5143–5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, 2017
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Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Sabrina Marx, Katharina Anders, Sofia Antonova, Inga Beck, Julia Boike, Philip Marsh, Moritz Langer, and Bernhard Höfle
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2017-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2017-49, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Global climate warming causes permafrost to warm and thaw, and, consequently, to release the carbon into the atmosphere. Terrestrial laser scanning is evaluated and current methods are extended in the context of monitoring subsidence in Arctic permafrost regions. The extracted information is important to gain a deeper understanding of permafrost-related subsidence processes and provides highly accurate ground-truth data which is necessary for further developing area-wide monitoring methods.
Sebastian Westermann, Maria Peter, Moritz Langer, Georg Schwamborn, Lutz Schirrmeister, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 11, 1441–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, 2017
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We demonstrate a remote-sensing-based scheme estimating the evolution of ground temperature and active layer thickness by means of a ground thermal model. A comparison to in situ observations from the Lena River delta in Siberia indicates that the model is generally capable of reproducing the annual temperature regime and seasonal thawing of the ground. The approach could hence be a first step towards remote detection of ground thermal conditions in permafrost areas.
Sina Muster, Kurt Roth, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Annett Bartsch, Anne Morgenstern, Guido Grosse, Benjamin Jones, A. Britta K. Sannel, Ylva Sjöberg, Frank Günther, Christian Andresen, Alexandra Veremeeva, Prajna R. Lindgren, Frédéric Bouchard, Mark J. Lara, Daniel Fortier, Simon Charbonneau, Tarmo A. Virtanen, Gustaf Hugelius, Juri Palmtag, Matthias B. Siewert, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Julia Boike
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 317–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, 2017
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Waterbodies are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. Most waterbodies are ponds with a surface area smaller than 100 x 100 m. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake Database (PeRL) for the first time maps ponds as small as 10 x 10 m. PeRL maps can be used to document changes both by comparing them to historical and future imagery. The distribution of waterbodies in the Arctic is important to know in order to manage resources in the Arctic and to improve climate predictions in the Arctic.
Fabian Beermann, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Wetterich, Jens Strauss, Julia Boike, Claudia Fiencke, Lutz Schirrmeister, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-117, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This paper aims to quantify pools of inorganic nitrogen in permafrost soils of arctic Siberia and to estimate annual release rates of this nitrogen due to permafrost thaw. We report for the first time stores of inorganic nitrogen in Siberian permafrost soils. These nitrogen stores are important as permafrost thaw can mobilize substantial amounts of nitrogen, potentially changing the nutrient balance of these soils and representing a significant non-carbon permafrost climate feedback.
J. Boike, C. Georgi, G. Kirilin, S. Muster, K. Abramova, I. Fedorova, A. Chetverova, M. Grigoriev, N. Bornemann, and M. Langer
Biogeosciences, 12, 5941–5965, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, 2015
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We show that lakes in northern Siberia are very efficient with respect to energy absorption and mixing using measurements as well as numerical modeling. We show that (i) the lakes receive substantial energy for warming from net short-wave radiation; (ii) convective mixing occurs beneath the ice cover, follow beneath the ice cover, following ice break-up, summer, and fall (iii) modeling suggests that the annual mean net heat flux across the bottom sediment boundary is approximately zero.
I. Beck, R. Ludwig, M. Bernier, T. Strozzi, and J. Boike
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 409–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-409-2015, 2015
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
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In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
A. Ekici, S. Chadburn, N. Chaudhary, L. H. Hajdu, A. Marmy, S. Peng, J. Boike, E. Burke, A. D. Friend, C. Hauck, G. Krinner, M. Langer, P. A. Miller, and C. Beer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1343–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, 2015
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This paper compares the performance of different land models in estimating soil thermal regimes at distinct cold region landscape types. Comparing models with different processes reveal the importance of surface insulation (snow/moss layer) and soil internal processes (heat/water transfer). The importance of model processes also depend on site conditions such as high/low snow cover, dry/wet soil types.
T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Grosse, J. Strauss, L. Schirrmeister, A. Morgenstern, S. Schaphoff, M. Meinshausen, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, 2015
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We have modelled the carbon release from thawing permafrost soils under various scenarios of future warming. Our results suggests that up to about 140Pg of carbon could be released under strong warming by end of the century. We have shown that abrupt thaw processes under thermokarst lakes can unlock large amounts of perennially frozen carbon stored in deep deposits (which extend many metres into the soil).
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
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Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
M. Langer, S. Westermann, K. Walter Anthony, K. Wischnewski, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 977–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, 2015
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Methane production rates of Arctic ponds during the freezing period within a typical tundra landscape in northern Siberia are presented. Production rates were inferred by inverse modeling based on measured methane concentrations in the ice cover. Results revealed marked differences in early winter methane production among ponds showing different stages of shore degradation. This suggests that shore erosion can increase methane production of Arctic ponds by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude.
I. Fedorova, A. Chetverova, D. Bolshiyanov, A. Makarov, J. Boike, B. Heim, A. Morgenstern, P. P. Overduin, C. Wegner, V. Kashina, A. Eulenburg, E. Dobrotina, and I. Sidorina
Biogeosciences, 12, 345–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-345-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-345-2015, 2015
J. Lüers, S. Westermann, K. Piel, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 11, 6307–6322, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, 2014
S. Yi, K. Wischnewski, M. Langer, S. Muster, and J. Boike
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1671–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1671-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1671-2014, 2014
Anfisa Pismeniuk, Peter Dörsch, Mats Ippach, Clarissa Willmes, Sunniva Sheffield, Norbert Pirk, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3059, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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Thermokarst ponds in high latitudes are important methane (CH4) sources in summer. Meanwhile, these lakes are ice-covered for around 60 % of the year and can accumulate CH4 in the ice and within the underlying water column, which potentially results in high emissions during the ice-off. Here, we present data on wintertime CH4 storage of ponds located within two peat plateaus in Northern Norway. Our results show that the wintertime CH4 storage can contribute up to 40 % to the annual CH4 budget.
Robin B. Zweigel, Dashtseren Avirmed, Khurelbaatar Temuujin, Clare Webster, Hanna Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2366, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Two years of data along a forest disturbance gradient in Mongolia show a larger annual ground surface temperature range in dead and logged forests than intact forest, while the range is dampened in stands of young regrowth. Compared to intact forest, mean annual ground surface temperatures are 0.5 °C colder in dead and logged forest and dense stands of young regrowth. This is linked to differences in vegetation and surface cover due to the disturbance and patterns in livestock activity.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Christian Otto, Jan Volkholz, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke, Colin Jones, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Ryan Heneghan, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Dánnell Quesada Chacón, Kerry Emanuel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Lisa Novak, Inga J. Sauer, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, Michel Bechtold, Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf, Jed O. Kaplan, Alexander Koch, and Matthieu Lengaigne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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This paper describes the experiments and data sets necessary to run historic and future impact projections, and the underlying assumptions of future climate change as defined by the 3rd round of the ISIMIP Project (Inter-sectoral Impactmodel Intercomparison Project, isimip.org). ISIMIP provides a framework for cross-sectorally consistent climate impact simulations to contribute to a comprehensive and consistent picture of the world under different climate-change scenarios.
Oriol Pomarol Moya, Madlene Nussbaum, Siamak Mehrkanoon, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Isabelle Gouttevin, Derek Karssenberg, and Walter W. Immerzeel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1845, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Two hybrid Machine Learning (ML) approaches using meteorological data and snowpack simulations from the Crocus snow model were evaluated for daily snow water equivalent (SWE) prediction at ten locations in the Northern Hemisphere, where they improved both Crocus and traditional ML approaches. In particular, a hybrid setup augmenting the measured data with Crocus simulations considerably enhanced prediction on unseen locations, paving the way for better long-term SWE monitoring.
Danaé Préaux, Ingrid Dombrowski-Etchevers, Isabelle Gouttevin, and Yann Seity
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-708, 2025
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Structural inhomogeneities of the valleys and mountains observational network contribute to the misrepresentation of near-surface air temperature and should be considered both when evaluating the model performances and in assimilation.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
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We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Joana Pedro Baptista, Goncalo Brito Guapo Teles Vieira, Hyoungseok Lee, António Manuel de Carvalho Soares Correia, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-150, 2025
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Permafrost underlies ice-free areas of Antarctica, but its response to long-term warming is unclear due to a limited number of monitoring sites. To address this, we used the CryoGrid model, forced with climate data, to estimate permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness at King Sejong Station since 1950. The results show ground temperatures rising 0.25 °C per decade and the active layer thickening by 2 m. Warming has accelerated since 2015, highlighting the need for continued monitoring.
Anastasios Rovithakis, Eleanor Burke, Chantelle Burton, Matthew Kasoar, Manolis G. Grillakis, Konstantinos D. Seiradakis, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-274, 2025
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JULES-INFERNO captures observed burned area across Greece fairly well for the present-day. Drastic future changes in burnt area in Eastern continental and southern Greece, especially under severe climate change scenarios. Static vegetation leads to larger burnt area compared to dynamic vegetation due to the lower concentration of flammable needleleaf trees.
Ephraim Erkens, Michael Angelopoulos, Jens Tronicke, Scott R. Dallimore, Dustin Whalen, Julia Boike, and Pier Paul Overduin
The Cryosphere, 19, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-997-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-997-2025, 2025
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We investigate the depth of subsea permafrost formed by inundation of terrestrial permafrost due to marine transgression around the rapidly disappearing, permafrost-cored Tuktoyaktuk Island (Beaufort Sea, NWT, Canada). We use geoelectrical surveys with floating electrodes to identify the boundary between unfrozen and frozen sediment. Our findings indicate that permafrost thaw depths beneath the seabed can be explained by coastal erosion rates and landscape features before inundation.
Jacqueline Kay Knutson, François Clayer, Peter Dörsch, Sebastian Westermann, and Heleen A. de Wit
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-184, 2025
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Thawing permafrost at Iškoras in northern Norway is transforming peat plateaus into thermokarst ponds and wetlands. These small ponds show striking oversaturation of dissolved greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), partly due to organic matter processing. Streams nearby emit CO2 driven by turbulence. As permafrost disappears, carbon dynamics will change, potentially increasing emissions of CH4. This study highlights the need to integrate these changes into climate models.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
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Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Bennet Juhls, Anne Morgenstern, Jens Hölemann, Antje Eulenburg, Birgit Heim, Frederieke Miesner, Hendrik Grotheer, Gesine Mollenhauer, Hanno Meyer, Ephraim Erkens, Felica Yara Gehde, Sofia Antonova, Sergey Chalov, Maria Tereshina, Oxana Erina, Evgeniya Fingert, Ekaterina Abramova, Tina Sanders, Liudmila Lebedeva, Nikolai Torgovkin, Georgii Maksimov, Vasily Povazhnyi, Rafael Gonçalves-Araujo, Urban Wünsch, Antonina Chetverova, Sophie Opfergelt, and Pier Paul Overduin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1-2025, 2025
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The Siberian Arctic is warming fast: permafrost is thawing, river chemistry is changing, and coastal ecosystems are affected. We aimed to understand changes in the Lena River, a major Arctic river flowing to the Arctic Ocean, by collecting 4.5 years of detailed water data, including temperature and carbon and nutrient contents. This dataset records current conditions and helps us to detect future changes. Explore it at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.913197 and https://lena-monitoring.awi.de/.
Tabea Rettelbach, Ingmar Nitze, Inge Grünberg, Jennika Hammar, Simon Schäffler, Daniel Hein, Matthias Gessner, Tilman Bucher, Jörg Brauchle, Jörg Hartmann, Torsten Sachs, Julia Boike, and Guido Grosse
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5767–5798, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5767-2024, 2024
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Permafrost landscapes in the Arctic are rapidly changing due to climate warming. Here, we publish aerial images and elevation models with very high spatial detail that help study these landscapes in northwestern Canada and Alaska. The images were collected using the Modular Aerial Camera System (MACS). This dataset has significant implications for understanding permafrost landscape dynamics in response to climate change. It is publicly available for further research.
Lotte Wendt, Line Rouyet, Hanne H. Christiansen, Tom Rune Lauknes, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2972, 2024
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In permafrost environments, the ground surface moves due to the formation and melt of ice in the ground. This study compares ground surface displacements measured from satellite images against field data of ground ice contents. We find good agreement between the detected seasonal subsidence and observed ground ice melt. Our results show the potential of satellite remote sensing for mapping ground ice variability, but also indicate that ice in excess of the pore space must be considered.
Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Avirmed Dashtseren, Khurelbaatar Temuujin, Anarmaa Sharkhuu, Clare Webster, Hanna Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
Biogeosciences, 21, 5059–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, 2024
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Intense grazing at grassland sites removes vegetation, reduces the snow cover, and inhibits litter layers from forming. Grazed sites generally have a larger annual ground surface temperature amplitude than ungrazed sites, but the net effect depends on effects in the transitional seasons. Our results also suggest that seasonal use of pastures can reduce ground temperatures, which can be a strategy to protect currently degrading grassland permafrost.
Sigrid Trier Kjær, Sebastian Westermann, Nora Nedkvitne, and Peter Dörsch
Biogeosciences, 21, 4723–4737, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, 2024
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Permafrost peatlands are thawing due to climate change, releasing large quantities of carbon that degrades upon thawing and is released as CO2, CH4 or dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We incubated thawed Norwegian permafrost peat plateaus and thermokarst pond sediment found next to permafrost for up to 350 d to measure carbon loss. CO2 production was initially the highest, whereas CH4 production increased over time. The largest carbon loss was measured at the top of the peat plateau core as DOC.
Juditha Aga, Livia Piermattei, Luc Girod, Kristoffer Aalstad, Trond Eiken, Andreas Kääb, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1049–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, 2024
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Coastal rock cliffs on Svalbard are considered to be fairly stable; however, long-term trends in coastal-retreat rates remain unknown. This study examines changes in the coastline position along Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, using aerial images from 1970, 1990, 2010, and 2021. Our analysis shows that coastal-retreat rates accelerate during the period 2010–2021, which coincides with increasing storminess and retreating sea ice.
Soraya Kaiser, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse, and Moritz Langer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3719–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3719-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3719-2024, 2024
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Arctic warming, leading to permafrost degradation, poses primary threats to infrastructure and secondary ecological hazards from possible infrastructure failure. Our study created a comprehensive Alaska inventory combining various data sources with which we improved infrastructure classification and data on contaminated sites. This resource is presented as a GeoPackage allowing planning of infrastructure damage and possible implications for Arctic communities facing permafrost challenges.
Matthew W. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Maria Lucia F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Andrew J. Hartley, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Joe R. McNorton, Fiona R. Spuler, Jakob B. Wessel, John T. Abatzoglou, Liana O. Anderson, Niels Andela, Sally Archibald, Dolors Armenteras, Eleanor Burke, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Hamish Clarke, Stefan H. Doerr, Paulo M. Fernandes, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Harris, Piyush Jain, Crystal A. Kolden, Tiina Kurvits, Seppe Lampe, Sarah Meier, Stacey New, Mark Parrington, Morgane M. G. Perron, Yuquan Qu, Natasha S. Ribeiro, Bambang H. Saharjo, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Veerachai Tanpipat, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, and Gavriil Xanthopoulos
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024
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This inaugural State of Wildfires report catalogues extreme fires of the 2023–2024 fire season. For key events, we analyse their predictability and drivers and attribute them to climate change and land use. We provide a seasonal outlook and decadal projections. Key anomalies occurred in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia, with other high-impact events catalogued worldwide. Climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fires, and mitigation is required to lessen future risk.
Rebecca M. Varney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 21, 2759–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, 2024
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Soil carbon is the largest store of carbon on the land surface of Earth and is known to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Understanding this future response is vital to successfully meeting Paris Agreement targets, which rely heavily on carbon uptake by the land surface. In this study, the individual responses of soil carbon are quantified and compared amongst CMIP6 Earth system models used within the most recent IPCC report, and the role of soils in the land response is highlighted.
Frederieke Miesner, William Lambert Cable, Pier Paul Overduin, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 18, 2603–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2603-2024, 2024
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The temperature in the sediment below Arctic lakes determines the stability of the permafrost and microbial activity. However, measurements are scarce because of the remoteness. We present a robust and portable device to fill this gap. Test campaigns have demonstrated its utility in a range of environments during winter and summer. The measured temperatures show a great variability within and across locations. The data can be used to validate models and estimate potential emissions.
Marco Mazzolini, Kristoffer Aalstad, Esteban Alonso-González, Sebastian Westermann, and Désirée Treichler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1404, 2024
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In this work, we use the satellite laser altimeter ICESat-2 to retrieve snow depth in areas where snow amounts are still poorly estimated despite the high societal importance. We explore how to update snow models with these observations through algorithms that spatially propagate the information beyond the narrow satellite profiles. The positive results show the potential of this approach for improving snow simulations, both in terms of average snow depth and spatial distribution.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
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Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Oliver Sonnentag, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gesa Meyer, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Julia Boike, and Matteo Detto
Biogeosciences, 21, 825–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-825-2024, 2024
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We undertake a sensitivity study of three different parameters on the simulation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during the snow-covered non-growing season at an Arctic tundra site. Simulations are compared to eddy covariance measurements, with near-zero NEE simulated despite observed CO2 release. We then consider how to parameterise the model better in Arctic tundra environments on both sub-seasonal timescales and cumulatively throughout the snow-covered non-growing season.
Louis Le Toumelin, Isabelle Gouttevin, Clovis Galiez, and Nora Helbig
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 75–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-75-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-75-2024, 2024
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Forecasting wind fields over mountains is of high importance for several applications and particularly for understanding how wind erodes and disperses snow. Forecasters rely on operational wind forecasts over mountains, which are currently only available on kilometric scales. These forecasts can also be affected by errors of diverse origins. Here we introduce a new strategy based on artificial intelligence to correct large-scale wind forecasts in mountains and increase their spatial resolution.
Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Brian Groenke, Lisa-Marie Assmann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Simone Maria Stuenzi, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 18, 363–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, 2024
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Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia, we find that post-industrialization permafrost warming has three "hotspots" in NE Canada, N Alaska, and W Siberia. The extent of near-surface permafrost has decreased substantially since 1850, with the largest area losses occurring in the last 50 years. The simulations also show that volcanic eruptions have in some cases counteracted the loss of near-surface permafrost for a few decades.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
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Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Justyna Czekirda, Sebastian Westermann, Christin Hilbich, and Christian Hauck
The Cryosphere, 17, 5477–5497, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, 2023
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Permafrost (permanently frozen ground) is widespread in the mountains of Norway and Iceland. Several boreholes were drilled after 1999 for long-term permafrost monitoring. We document a strong warming of permafrost, including the development of unfrozen bodies in the permafrost. Warming and degradation of mountain permafrost may lead to more natural hazards.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Norbert Pirk, Marco Mazzolini, Désirée Treichler, Paul Leclercq, Sebastian Westermann, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4637–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, 2023
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Here we explore how to improve hyper-resolution (5 m) distributed snowpack simulations using sparse observations, which do not provide information from all the areas of the simulation domain. We propose a new way of propagating information throughout the simulations adapted to the hyper-resolution, which could also be used to improve simulations of other nature. The method has been implemented in an open-source data assimilation tool that is readily accessible to everyone.
Jennika Hammar, Inge Grünberg, Steven V. Kokelj, Jurjen van der Sluijs, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 5357–5372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5357-2023, 2023
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Roads on permafrost have significant environmental effects. This study assessed the Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway (ITH) in Canada and its impact on snow accumulation, albedo and snowmelt timing. Our findings revealed that snow accumulation increased by up to 36 m from the road, 12-day earlier snowmelt within 100 m due to reduced albedo, and altered snowmelt patterns in seemingly undisturbed areas. Remote sensing aids in understanding road impacts on permafrost.
Anatoly O. Sinitsyn, Sara Bazin, Rasmus Benestad, Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Hanne Kvitsand, Julia Lutz, Andrea L. Popp, Lena Rubensdotter, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, 2023
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This study looked at under the ground on Svalbard, an archipelago close to the North Pole. We found something very surprising – there is water under the all year around frozen soil. This was not known before. This water could be used for drinking if we manage it carefully. This is important because getting clean drinking water is very difficult in Svalbard, and other Arctic places. Also, because the climate is getting warmer, there might be even more water underground in the future.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
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Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Jean Emmanuel Sicart, Victor Ramseyer, Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Catherine Coulaud, Guilhem Freche, Damien Soubeyrand, Yves Lejeune, Marie Dumont, Isabelle Gouttevin, Erwan Le Gac, Frédéric Berger, Jean-Matthieu Monnet, Laurent Borgniet, Éric Mermin, Nick Rutter, Clare Webster, and Richard Essery
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5121–5133, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5121-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5121-2023, 2023
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Forests strongly modify the accumulation, metamorphism and melting of snow in midlatitude and high-latitude regions. Two field campaigns during the winters 2016–17 and 2017–18 were conducted in a coniferous forest in the French Alps to study interactions between snow and vegetation. This paper presents the field site, instrumentation and collection methods. The observations include forest characteristics, meteorology, snow cover and snow interception by the canopy during precipitation events.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
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This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Matan Ben-Asher, Florence Magnin, Sebastian Westermann, Josué Bock, Emmanuel Malet, Johan Berthet, Ludovic Ravanel, and Philip Deline
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 899–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, 2023
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Quantitative knowledge of water availability on high mountain rock slopes is very limited. We use a numerical model and field measurements to estimate the water balance at a steep rock wall site. We show that snowmelt is the main source of water at elevations >3600 m and that snowpack hydrology and sublimation are key factors. The new information presented here can be used to improve the understanding of thermal, hydrogeological, and mechanical processes on steep mountain rock slopes.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
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It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4249–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, 2023
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This paper describes and evaluates a new modelling methodology to quantify the impacts of climate change on water, biomes and the carbon cycle. We have created a new configuration and set-up for the JULES-ES land surface model, driven by bias-corrected historical and future climate model output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). This allows us to compare projections of the impacts of climate change across multiple impact models and multiple sectors.
Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Erin Emily Thomas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2941–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023, 2023
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Here, we present high-resolution simulations of glacier mass balance (the gain and loss of ice over a year) and runoff on Svalbard from 1991–2022, one of the fastest warming regions in the Arctic. The simulations are created using the CryoGrid community model. We find a small overall loss of mass over the simulation period of −0.08 m yr−1 but with no statistically significant trend. The average runoff was found to be 41 Gt yr−1, with a significant increasing trend of 6.3 Gt per decade.
Petr Brož, Dorothy Oehler, Adriano Mazzini, Ernst Hauber, Goro Komatsu, Giuseppe Etiope, and Vojtěch Cuřín
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 633–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-633-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-633-2023, 2023
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The aim of this review is to summarise the current knowledge about mud-volcano-like structures on Mars, address critical aspects of the process of sedimentary volcanism, identify key open questions, and point to areas where further research is needed to understand this phenomenon and its importance in the Red Planet's geological evolution.
Marie Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Marion Réveillet, Didier Voisin, François Tuzet, Laurent Arnaud, Mylène Bonnefoy, Montse Bacardit Peñarroya, Carlo Carmagnola, Alexandre Deguine, Aurélie Diacre, Lukas Dürr, Olivier Evrard, Firmin Fontaine, Amaury Frankl, Mathieu Fructus, Laure Gandois, Isabelle Gouttevin, Abdelfateh Gherab, Pascal Hagenmuller, Sophia Hansson, Hervé Herbin, Béatrice Josse, Bruno Jourdain, Irene Lefevre, Gaël Le Roux, Quentin Libois, Lucie Liger, Samuel Morin, Denis Petitprez, Alvaro Robledano, Martin Schneebeli, Pascal Salze, Delphine Six, Emmanuel Thibert, Jürg Trachsel, Matthieu Vernay, Léo Viallon-Galinier, and Céline Voiron
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3075–3094, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, 2023
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Saharan dust outbreaks have profound effects on ecosystems, climate, health, and the cryosphere, but the spatial deposition pattern of Saharan dust is poorly known. Following the extreme dust deposition event of February 2021 across Europe, a citizen science campaign was launched to sample dust on snow over the Pyrenees and the European Alps. This campaign triggered wide interest and over 100 samples. The samples revealed the high variability of the dust properties within a single event.
Justyna Czekirda, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, and Florence Magnin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2725–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, 2023
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We assess spatio-temporal permafrost variations in selected rock walls in Norway over the last 120 years. Ground temperature is modelled using the two-dimensional ground heat flux model CryoGrid 2D along nine profiles. Permafrost probably occurs at most sites. All simulations show increasing ground temperature from the 1980s. Our simulations show that rock wall permafrost with a temperature of −1 °C at 20 m depth could thaw at this depth within 50 years.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Astrid Vatne, Andrea L. Popp, Peter Horvath, Anders Bryn, Ane Victoria Vollsnes, Sebastian Westermann, Terje Koren Berntsen, Frode Stordal, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2031–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, 2023
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We measured the land–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and water vapor in alpine Norway over 3 years. The extremely snow-rich conditions in 2020 reduced the total annual evapotranspiration to 50 % and reduced the growing-season carbon assimilation to turn the ecosystem from a moderate annual carbon sink to an even stronger source. Our analysis suggests that snow cover anomalies are driving the most consequential short-term responses in this ecosystem’s functioning.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023
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The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
Martine Lizotte, Bennet Juhls, Atsushi Matsuoka, Philippe Massicotte, Gaëlle Mével, David Obie James Anikina, Sofia Antonova, Guislain Bécu, Marine Béguin, Simon Bélanger, Thomas Bossé-Demers, Lisa Bröder, Flavienne Bruyant, Gwénaëlle Chaillou, Jérôme Comte, Raoul-Marie Couture, Emmanuel Devred, Gabrièle Deslongchamps, Thibaud Dezutter, Miles Dillon, David Doxaran, Aude Flamand, Frank Fell, Joannie Ferland, Marie-Hélène Forget, Michael Fritz, Thomas J. Gordon, Caroline Guilmette, Andrea Hilborn, Rachel Hussherr, Charlotte Irish, Fabien Joux, Lauren Kipp, Audrey Laberge-Carignan, Hugues Lantuit, Edouard Leymarie, Antonio Mannino, Juliette Maury, Paul Overduin, Laurent Oziel, Colin Stedmon, Crystal Thomas, Lucas Tisserand, Jean-Éric Tremblay, Jorien Vonk, Dustin Whalen, and Marcel Babin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1617–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1617-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1617-2023, 2023
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Permafrost thaw in the Mackenzie Delta region results in the release of organic matter into the coastal marine environment. What happens to this carbon-rich organic matter as it transits along the fresh to salty aquatic environments is still underdocumented. Four expeditions were conducted from April to September 2019 in the coastal area of the Beaufort Sea to study the fate of organic matter. This paper describes a rich set of data characterizing the composition and sources of organic matter.
Ngai-Ham Chan, Moritz Langer, Bennet Juhls, Tabea Rettelbach, Paul Overduin, Kimberly Huppert, and Jean Braun
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 259–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-259-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-259-2023, 2023
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Arctic river deltas influence how nutrients and soil organic carbon, carried by sediments from the Arctic landscape, are retained or released into the Arctic Ocean. Under climate change, the deltas themselves and their ecosystems are becoming more vulnerable. We build upon previous models to reproduce for the first time an important feature ubiquitous to Arctic deltas and simulate its future under climate warming. This can impact the future of Arctic deltas and the carbon release they moderate.
Cas Renette, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Bernd Etzelmüller, Karianne Staalesen Lilleøren, Ketil Isaksen, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 33–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, 2023
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One of the reasons for lower ground temperatures in coarse, blocky terrain is a low or varying soil moisture content, which most permafrost modelling studies did not take into account. We used the CryoGrid community model to successfully simulate this effect and found markedly lower temperatures in well-drained, blocky deposits compared to other set-ups. The inclusion of this drainage effect is another step towards a better model representation of blocky mountain terrain in permafrost regions.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Astrid Vatne, Alouette van Hove, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Massimo Cassiani, and Gabriel Katul
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 7293–7314, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, 2022
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In this study, we show how sparse and noisy drone measurements can be combined with an ensemble of turbulence-resolving wind simulations to estimate uncertainty-aware surface energy exchange. We demonstrate the feasibility of this drone data assimilation framework in a series of synthetic and real-world experiments. This new framework can, in future, be applied to estimate energy and gas exchange in heterogeneous landscapes more representatively than conventional methods.
Yao Gao, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Maarit Raivonen, Mika Aurela, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Elyn Humphreys, Annalea Lohila, Tingting Li, Tiina Markkanen, Olli Nevalainen, Mats B. Nilsson, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Aki Tsuruta, Huiyi Yang, and Tuula Aalto
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, 2022
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We coupled a process-based peatland CH4 emission model HIMMELI with a state-of-art land surface model JULES. The performance of the coupled model was evaluated at six northern wetland sites. The coupled model is considered to be more appropriate in simulating wetland CH4 emission. In order to improve the simulated CH4 emission, the model requires better representation of the peat soil carbon and hydrologic processes in JULES and the methane production and transportation processes in HIMMELI.
Mauricio Arboleda-Zapata, Michael Angelopoulos, Pier Paul Overduin, Guido Grosse, Benjamin M. Jones, and Jens Tronicke
The Cryosphere, 16, 4423–4445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4423-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4423-2022, 2022
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We demonstrate how we can reliably estimate the thawed–frozen permafrost interface with its associated uncertainties in subsea permafrost environments using 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. In addition, we show how further analyses considering 1D inversion and sensitivity assessments can help quantify and better understand 2D ERT inversion results. Our results illustrate the capabilities of the ERT method to get insights into the development of the subsea permafrost.
Victoria R. Dutch, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Melody Sandells, Chris Derksen, Branden Walker, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Oliver Sonnentag, Richard Essery, Richard Kelly, Phillip Marsh, Joshua King, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 16, 4201–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4201-2022, 2022
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Measurements of the properties of the snow and soil were compared to simulations of the Community Land Model to see how well the model represents snow insulation. Simulations underestimated snow thermal conductivity and wintertime soil temperatures. We test two approaches to reduce the transfer of heat through the snowpack and bring simulated soil temperatures closer to measurements, with an alternative parameterisation of snow thermal conductivity being more appropriate.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
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Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Juri Palmtag, Jaroslav Obu, Peter Kuhry, Andreas Richter, Matthias B. Siewert, Niels Weiss, Sebastian Westermann, and Gustaf Hugelius
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4095–4110, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, 2022
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The northern permafrost region covers 22 % of the Northern Hemisphere and holds almost twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. This paper presents data from 651 soil pedons encompassing more than 6500 samples from 16 different study areas across the northern permafrost region. We use this dataset together with ESA's global land cover dataset to estimate soil organic carbon and total nitrogen storage up to 300 cm soil depth, with estimated values of 813 Pg for carbon and 55 Pg for nitrogen.
Jan Nitzbon, Damir Gadylyaev, Steffen Schlüter, John Maximilian Köhne, Guido Grosse, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 16, 3507–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3507-2022, 2022
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The microstructure of permafrost soils contains clues to its formation and its preconditioning to future change. We used X-ray computed tomography (CT) to measure the composition of a permafrost drill core from Siberia. By combining CT with laboratory measurements, we determined the the proportions of pore ice, excess ice, minerals, organic matter, and gas contained in the core at an unprecedented resolution. Our work demonstrates the potential of CT to study permafrost properties and processes.
Lutz Beckebanze, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Josefine Walz, Christian Wille, David Holl, Manuel Helbig, Julia Boike, Torsten Sachs, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 19, 3863–3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3863-2022, 2022
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In this study, we present observations of lateral and vertical carbon fluxes from a permafrost-affected study site in the Russian Arctic. From this dataset we estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance for this study site. We show that lateral carbon export has a low impact on the net ecosystem carbon balance during the complete study period (3 months). Nevertheless, our results also show that lateral carbon export can exceed vertical carbon uptake at the beginning of the growing season.
Mahdi André Nakhavali, Lina M. Mercado, Iain P. Hartley, Stephen Sitch, Fernanda V. Cunha, Raffaello di Ponzio, Laynara F. Lugli, Carlos A. Quesada, Kelly M. Andersen, Sarah E. Chadburn, Andy J. Wiltshire, Douglas B. Clark, Gyovanni Ribeiro, Lara Siebert, Anna C. M. Moraes, Jéssica Schmeisk Rosa, Rafael Assis, and José L. Camargo
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5241–5269, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5241-2022, 2022
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In tropical ecosystems, the availability of rock-derived elements such as P can be very low. Thus, without a representation of P cycling, tropical forest responses to rising atmospheric CO2 conditions in areas such as Amazonia remain highly uncertain. We introduced P dynamics and its interactions with the N and P cycles into the JULES model. Our results highlight the potential for high P limitation and therefore lower CO2 fertilization capacity in the Amazon forest with low-fertility soils.
Matthias Fuchs, Juri Palmtag, Bennet Juhls, Pier Paul Overduin, Guido Grosse, Ahmed Abdelwahab, Michael Bedington, Tina Sanders, Olga Ogneva, Irina V. Fedorova, Nikita S. Zimov, Paul J. Mann, and Jens Strauss
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2279–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2279-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2279-2022, 2022
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We created digital, high-resolution bathymetry data sets for the Lena Delta and Kolyma Gulf regions in northeastern Siberia. Based on nautical charts, we digitized depth points and isobath lines, which serve as an input for a 50 m bathymetry model. The benefit of this data set is the accurate mapping of near-shore areas as well as the offshore continuation of the main deep river channels. This will improve the estimation of river outflow and the nutrient flux output into the coastal zone.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Charlotte Haugk, Loeka L. Jongejans, Kai Mangelsdorf, Matthias Fuchs, Olga Ogneva, Juri Palmtag, Gesine Mollenhauer, Paul J. Mann, P. Paul Overduin, Guido Grosse, Tina Sanders, Robyn E. Tuerena, Lutz Schirrmeister, Sebastian Wetterich, Alexander Kizyakov, Cornelia Karger, and Jens Strauss
Biogeosciences, 19, 2079–2094, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2079-2022, 2022
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Buried animal and plant remains (carbon) from the last ice age were freeze-locked in permafrost. At an extremely fast eroding permafrost cliff in the Lena Delta (Siberia), we found this formerly frozen carbon well preserved. Our results show that ongoing degradation releases substantial amounts of this carbon, making it available for future carbon emissions. This mobilisation at the studied cliff and also similarly eroding sites bear the potential to affect rivers and oceans negatively.
Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Frederieke Miesner, Paul P. Overduin, Matteo Puglini, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 16, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, 2022
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Thawing permafrost releases carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing global warming. Part of the permafrost soils have been flooded by rising sea levels since the last ice age, becoming subsea permafrost (SSPF). The SSPF is less studied than the part on land. In this study we use a global model to obtain rates of thawing of SSPF under different future climate scenarios until the year 3000. After the year 2100 the scenarios strongly diverge, closely connected to the eventual disappearance of sea ice.
Stefan Kruse, Simone M. Stuenzi, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Josias Gloy, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2395–2422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2395-2022, 2022
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We coupled established models for boreal forest (LAVESI) and permafrost dynamics (CryoGrid) in Siberia to investigate interactions of the diverse vegetation layer with permafrost soils. Our tests showed improved active layer depth estimations and newly included species growth according to their species-specific limits. We conclude that the new model system can be applied to simulate boreal forest dynamics and transitions under global warming and disturbances, expanding our knowledge.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Noah D. Smith, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Dan J. Charman, Julia Drewer, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Yao Gao, Mahdi Nakhavali, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Sebastian Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1633–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, 2022
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We present a new method to include peatlands in an Earth system model (ESM). Peatlands store huge amounts of carbon that accumulates very slowly but that can be rapidly destabilised, emitting greenhouse gases. Our model captures the dynamic nature of peat by simulating the change in surface height and physical properties of the soil as carbon is added or decomposed. Thus, we model, for the first time in an ESM, peat dynamics and its threshold behaviours that can lead to destabilisation.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
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This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kathleen Savage, Sara June Connon, Marguerite Mauritz, Edward A. G. Schuur, Darcy Peter, Christina Minions, Julia Nojeim, Roisin Commane, Craig A. Emmerton, Mathias Goeckede, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Hiroki Iwata, Hideki Kobayashi, Pasi Kolari, Efrén López-Blanco, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Lutz Merbold, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Torsten Sachs, Oliver Sonnentag, Masahito Ueyama, Carolina Voigt, Mika Aurela, Julia Boike, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Eugenie Euskirchen, Achim Grelle, Juha Hatakka, Elyn Humphreys, Järvi Järveoja, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Tuomas Laurila, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Yojiro Matsuura, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Steven F. Oberbauer, Sang-Jong Park, Roman Petrov, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, Christopher Schulze, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, William Quinton, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, and Viacheslav I. Zyryanov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 179–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-179-2022, 2022
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The effects of climate warming on carbon cycling across the Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) remain poorly understood due to the relatively limited distribution of ABZ flux sites. Fortunately, this flux network is constantly increasing, but new measurements are published in various platforms, making it challenging to understand the ABZ carbon cycle as a whole. Here, we compiled a new database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes to help facilitate large-scale assessments of the ABZ carbon cycle.
Katharina Jentzsch, Julia Boike, and Thomas Foken
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7291–7296, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7291-2021, 2021
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Very small CO2 fluxes are measured at night in Arctic regions. If the sensible heat flux is not close to zero under these conditions, the WPL correction will take values on the order of the flux. A special quality control is proposed for these cases.
Léo C. P. Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Johanna Scheer, Kjetil S. Aas, Trond Eiken, Moritz Langer, Simon Filhol, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 3423–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, 2021
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It is important to understand how permafrost landscapes respond to climate changes because their thaw can contribute to global warming. We investigate how a common permafrost morphology degrades using both field observations of the surface elevation and numerical modeling. We show that numerical models accounting for topographic changes related to permafrost degradation can reproduce the observed changes in nature and help us understand how parameters such as snow influence this phenomenon.
Lydia Stolpmann, Caroline Coch, Anne Morgenstern, Julia Boike, Michael Fritz, Ulrike Herzschuh, Kathleen Stoof-Leichsenring, Yury Dvornikov, Birgit Heim, Josefine Lenz, Amy Larsen, Katey Walter Anthony, Benjamin Jones, Karen Frey, and Guido Grosse
Biogeosciences, 18, 3917–3936, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3917-2021, 2021
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Our new database summarizes DOC concentrations of 2167 water samples from 1833 lakes in permafrost regions across the Arctic to provide insights into linkages between DOC and environment. We found increasing lake DOC concentration with decreasing permafrost extent and higher DOC concentrations in boreal permafrost sites compared to tundra sites. Our study shows that DOC concentration depends on the environmental properties of a lake, especially permafrost extent, ecoregion, and vegetation.
S. Su, L. Fanara, X. Zhang, K. Gwinner, E. Hauber, and J. Oberst
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2021, 673–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2021-673-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2021-673-2021, 2021
Hannes Helmut Bauser, Daniel Berg, and Kurt Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3319–3329, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3319-2021, 2021
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Data assimilation methods are used throughout the geosciences to combine information from uncertain models and uncertain measurement data. In this study, we distinguish between the characteristics of geophysical systems, i.e., divergent systems (initially nearby states will drift apart) and convergent systems (initially nearby states will coalesce), and demonstrate the implications for sequential ensemble data assimilation methods, which require a sufficient divergent component.
Edoardo Martini, Matteo Bauckholt, Simon Kögler, Manuel Kreck, Kurt Roth, Ulrike Werban, Ute Wollschläger, and Steffen Zacharias
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2529–2539, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2529-2021, 2021
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We present the in situ data available from the soil monitoring network
STH-net, recently implemented at the Schäfertal Hillslope site (Germany). The STH-net provides data (soil water content, soil temperature, water level, and meteorological variables – measured at a 10 min interval since 1 January 2019) for developing and testing modelling approaches in the context of vadose zone hydrology at spatial scales ranging from the pedon to the hillslope.
Juditha Undine Schmidt, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Florence Magnin, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2491–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, 2021
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This study presents rock surface temperatures (RSTs) of steep high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard from 2016 to 2020. The field data show that coastal cliffs are characterized by warmer RSTs than inland locations during winter seasons. By running model simulations, we analyze factors leading to that effect, calculate the surface energy balance and simulate different future scenarios. Both field data and model results can contribute to a further understanding of RST in high-Arctic rock walls.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hanna Lee, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Scott Lamoureux, Donald A. Walker, Sarah Chadburn, Erin Trochim, Lei Cai, Jan Nitzbon, Stephan Jacobi, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere, 15, 2451–2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, 2021
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Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
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We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
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Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Ines Spangenberg, Pier Paul Overduin, Ellen Damm, Ingeborg Bussmann, Hanno Meyer, Susanne Liebner, Michael Angelopoulos, Boris K. Biskaborn, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, and Guido Grosse
The Cryosphere, 15, 1607–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1607-2021, 2021
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Thermokarst lakes are common on ice-rich permafrost. Many studies have shown that they are sources of methane to the atmosphere. Although they are usually covered by ice, little is known about what happens to methane in winter. We studied how much methane is contained in the ice of a thermokarst lake, a thermokarst lagoon and offshore. Methane concentrations differed strongly, depending on water body type. Microbes can also oxidize methane in ice and lower the concentrations during winter.
Rebecca Rolph, Pier Paul Overduin, Thomas Ravens, Hugues Lantuit, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-28, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Declining sea ice, larger waves, and increasing air temperatures are contributing to a rapidly eroding Arctic coastline. We simulate water levels using wind speed and direction, which are used with wave height, wave period, and sea surface temperature to drive an erosion model of a partially frozen cliff and beach. This provides a first step to include Arctic erosion in larger-scale earth system models. Simulated cumulative retreat rates agree within the same order of magnitude as observations.
Ingeborg Bussmann, Irina Fedorova, Bennet Juhls, Pier Paul Overduin, and Matthias Winkel
Biogeosciences, 18, 2047–2061, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2047-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2047-2021, 2021
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Arctic rivers, lakes, and bays are affected by a warming climate. We measured the amount and consumption of methane in waters from Siberia under ice cover and in open water. In the lake, methane concentrations under ice cover were much higher than in summer, and methane consumption was highest. The ice cover leads to higher methane concentration under ice. In a warmer Arctic, there will be more time with open water when methane is consumed by bacteria, and less methane will escape into the air.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 15, 1399–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, 2021
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We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect permafrost thaw under climate-warming scenarios. Our results show that representing small-scale heterogeneities in the model can decide whether a landscape is water-logged or well-drained in the future. This in turn affects how fast permafrost thaws under warming. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering small-scale processes in model assessments of permafrost thaw under climate change.
Michael Matiu, Alice Crespi, Giacomo Bertoldi, Carlo Maria Carmagnola, Christoph Marty, Samuel Morin, Wolfgang Schöner, Daniele Cat Berro, Gabriele Chiogna, Ludovica De Gregorio, Sven Kotlarski, Bruno Majone, Gernot Resch, Silvia Terzago, Mauro Valt, Walter Beozzo, Paola Cianfarra, Isabelle Gouttevin, Giorgia Marcolini, Claudia Notarnicola, Marcello Petitta, Simon C. Scherrer, Ulrich Strasser, Michael Winkler, Marc Zebisch, Andrea Cicogna, Roberto Cremonini, Andrea Debernardi, Mattia Faletto, Mauro Gaddo, Lorenzo Giovannini, Luca Mercalli, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Andrea Sušnik, Alberto Trenti, Stefano Urbani, and Viktor Weilguni
The Cryosphere, 15, 1343–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-2021, 2021
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The first Alpine-wide assessment of station snow depth has been enabled by a collaborative effort of the research community which involves more than 30 partners, 6 countries, and more than 2000 stations. It shows how snow in the European Alps matches the climatic zones and gives a robust estimate of observed changes: stronger decreases in the snow season at low elevations and in spring at all elevations, however, with considerable regional differences.
Simone Maria Stuenzi, Julia Boike, William Cable, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Sebastian Westermann, Evgenii S. Zakharov, and Moritz Langer
Biogeosciences, 18, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, 2021
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Boreal forests in eastern Siberia are an essential component of global climate patterns. We use a physically based model and field measurements to study the interactions between forests, permanently frozen ground and the atmosphere. We find that forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing snow cover dynamics and altering the surface energy balance, through absorbing most of the incoming solar radiation and suppressing below-canopy turbulent fluxes.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Lei Cai, Hanna Lee, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 4611–4626, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, 2020
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A sub-grid representation of excess ground ice in the Community Land Model (CLM) is developed as novel progress in modeling permafrost thaw and its impacts under the warming climate. The modeled permafrost degradation with sub-grid excess ice follows the pathway that continuous permafrost transforms into discontinuous permafrost before it disappears, including surface subsidence and talik formation, which are highly permafrost-relevant landscape changes excluded from most land models.
Eleanor J. Burke, Yu Zhang, and Gerhard Krinner
The Cryosphere, 14, 3155–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, 2020
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Permafrost will degrade under future climate change. This will have implications locally for the northern high-latitude regions and may well also amplify global climate change. There have been some recent improvements in the ability of earth system models to simulate the permafrost physical state, but further model developments are required. Models project the thawed volume of soil in the top 2 m of permafrost will increase by 10 %–40 % °C−1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.
Jean-Louis Bonne, Hanno Meyer, Melanie Behrens, Julia Boike, Sepp Kipfstuhl, Benjamin Rabe, Toni Schmidt, Lutz Schönicke, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10493–10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10493-2020, 2020
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This study introduces 2 years of continuous near-surface in situ observations of the stable isotopic composition of water vapour in parallel with precipitation in north-eastern Siberia. We evaluate the atmospheric transport of moisture towards the region of our observations with simulations constrained by meteorological reanalyses and use this information to interpret the temporal variations of the vapour isotopic composition from seasonal to synoptic timescales.
Jordi Bolibar, Antoine Rabatel, Isabelle Gouttevin, and Clovis Galiez
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1973–1983, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1973-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1973-2020, 2020
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We present a dataset of annual glacier mass changes for all the 661 glaciers in the French Alps for the 1967–2015 period, reconstructed using deep learning (i.e. artificial intelligence). We estimate an average annual mass loss of –0.69 ± 0.21 m w.e., the highest being in the Chablais, Ubaye and Champsaur massifs and the lowest in the Mont Blanc, Oisans and Haute Tarentaise ranges. This dataset can be of interest to hydrology and ecology studies on glacierized catchments in the French Alps.
Inge Grünberg, Evan J. Wilcox, Simon Zwieback, Philip Marsh, and Julia Boike
Biogeosciences, 17, 4261–4279, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4261-2020, 2020
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Based on topsoil temperature data for different vegetation types at a low Arctic tundra site, we found large small-scale variability. Winter temperatures were strongly influenced by vegetation through its effects on snow. Summer temperatures were similar below most vegetation types and not consistently related to late summer permafrost thaw depth. Given that vegetation type defines the relationship between winter and summer soil temperature and thaw depth, it controls permafrost vulnerability.
Jordi Bolibar, Antoine Rabatel, Isabelle Gouttevin, Clovis Galiez, Thomas Condom, and Eric Sauquet
The Cryosphere, 14, 565–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, 2020
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We introduce a novel approach for simulating glacier mass balances using a deep artificial neural network (i.e. deep learning) from climate and topographical data. This has been added as a component of a new open-source parameterized glacier evolution model. Deep learning is found to outperform linear machine learning methods, mainly due to its nonlinearity. Potential applications range from regional mass balance reconstructions from observations to simulations for past and future climates.
Jaroslav Obu, Sebastian Westermann, Gonçalo Vieira, Andrey Abramov, Megan Ruby Balks, Annett Bartsch, Filip Hrbáček, Andreas Kääb, and Miguel Ramos
The Cryosphere, 14, 497–519, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-497-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-497-2020, 2020
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Little is known about permafrost in the Antarctic outside of the few research stations. We used a simple equilibrium permafrost model to estimate permafrost temperatures in the whole Antarctic. The lowest permafrost temperature on Earth is −36 °C in the Queen Elizabeth Range in the Transantarctic Mountains. Temperatures are commonly between −23 and −18 °C in mountainous areas rising above the Antarctic Ice Sheet, between −14 and −8 °C in coastal areas, and up to 0 °C on the Antarctic Peninsula.
Christian G. Andresen, David M. Lawrence, Cathy J. Wilson, A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, Kevin Schaefer, Elchin Jafarov, Shushi Peng, Xiaodong Chen, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Duoying Ji, Guangsheng Chen, Daniel Hayes, and Wenxin Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020
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Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Joel Fiddes, Kristoffer Aalstad, and Sebastian Westermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4717–4736, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4717-2019, 2019
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In this paper we address one of the big challenges in snow hydrology, namely the accurate simulation of the seasonal snowpack in ungauged regions. We do this by assimilating satellite observations of snow cover into a modelling framework. Importantly (and a novelty of the paper), we include a clustering approach that permits highly efficient ensemble simulations. Efficiency gains and dependency on purely global datasets, means that this method can be applied over large areas anywhere on Earth.
Florence Magnin, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, Paula Hilger, and Reginald L. Hermanns
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 1019–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-1019-2019, 2019
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This study proposes the first permafrost (i.e. ground with temperature permanently < 0 °C) map covering the steep rock slopes of Norway. It was created by using rock temperature data collected at the near surface of 25 rock walls spread across the country between 2010 and 2018. The map shows that permafrost mostly exists above 1300–1400 m a.s.l. in southern Norway and close to sea level in northern Norway. The results have strong potential for the study of rock wall sliding and failure.
Julia Mitzscherling, Fabian Horn, Maria Winterfeld, Linda Mahler, Jens Kallmeyer, Pier P. Overduin, Lutz Schirrmeister, Matthias Winkel, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, Dirk Wagner, and Susanne Liebner
Biogeosciences, 16, 3941–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3941-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3941-2019, 2019
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Permafrost temperatures increased substantially at a global scale, potentially altering microbial assemblages involved in carbon mobilization before permafrost thaws. We used Arctic Shelf submarine permafrost as a natural laboratory to investigate the microbial response to long-term permafrost warming. Our work shows that millennia after permafrost warming by > 10 °C, microbial community composition and population size reflect the paleoenvironment rather than a direct effect through warming.
Lei Cai, Hanna Lee, Sebastian Westermann, and Kjetil Schanke Aas
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-230, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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We develop a sub-grid representation of excess ground ice in the Community Land Model (CLM) by adding three landunits to the original CLM sub-grid hierarchy, in order to prescribe three different excess ice conditions in one grid cell. Single-grid simulations verify the potential of the model development on better projecting excess ice melt in a warming climate. Global simulations recommend the proper way of applying the model development with the existing excess ice dataset.
Xicai Pan, Stefan Jaumann, Jiabao Zhang, and Kurt Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3653–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3653-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3653-2019, 2019
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This study suggests an efficient approach to obtain plot-scale soil hydraulic properties for the shallow structural soils via non-invasive ground-penetrating radar measurements. Facilitated by spatial information of lateral water flow, this approach is more efficient than the widely used inversion approaches relying on intensive soil moisture monitoring. The acquisition of such quantitative information is of great interest to fields such as hydrology and precision agriculture.
Bennet Juhls, Pier Paul Overduin, Jens Hölemann, Martin Hieronymi, Atsushi Matsuoka, Birgit Heim, and Jürgen Fischer
Biogeosciences, 16, 2693–2713, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2693-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2693-2019, 2019
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In this article, we present the variability and characteristics of dissolved organic matter at the fluvial–marine transition in the Laptev Sea from a unique dataset collected during 11 Arctic expeditions. We develop a new relationship between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and coloured dissolved organic matter absorption, which is used to estimate surface water DOC concentration from space. We believe that our findings help current efforts to monitor ongoing changes in the Arctic carbon cycle.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Westermann, Léo Martin, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 13, 1089–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1089-2019, 2019
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We studied the stability of ice wedges (massive bodies of ground ice in permafrost) under recent climatic conditions in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia. For this we used a novel modelling approach that takes into account lateral transport of heat, water, and snow and the subsidence of the ground surface due to melting of ground ice. We found that wetter conditions have a destabilizing effect on the ice wedges and associated our simulation results with observations from the study area.
Daniel Berg, Hannes H. Bauser, and Kurt Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1163–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1163-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1163-2019, 2019
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Particle filters are becoming popular for state and parameter estimations in hydrology. The renewal of the ensemble (resampling) is crucial in preventing filter degeneration. We introduce a resampling method that uses the weighted covariance of the ensemble, which contains information between observed and unobserved dimensions, to generate new ensemble members. This allows us to estimate the state and parameters for a rough initial guess in a synthetic hydrological case with just 100 particles.
Julia Boike, Jan Nitzbon, Katharina Anders, Mikhail Grigoriev, Dmitry Bolshiyanov, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Niko Bornemann, Anne Morgenstern, Peter Schreiber, Christian Wille, Sarah Chadburn, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019
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Long-term observational data are available from the Samoylov research site in northern Siberia, where meteorological parameters, energy balance, and subsurface observations have been recorded since 1998. This paper presents the temporal data set produced between 2002 and 2017, explaining the instrumentation, calibration, processing, and data quality control. Furthermore, we present a merged dataset of the parameters, which were measured from 1998 onwards.
David Holl, Christian Wille, Torsten Sachs, Peter Schreiber, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Lutz Beckebanze, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, Irina Fedorova, Dimitry Y. Bolshianov, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 221–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, 2019
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We present a multi-annual time series of land–atmosphere carbon dioxide fluxes measured in situ with the eddy covariance technique in the Siberian Arctic. In arctic permafrost regions, climate–carbon feedbacks are amplified. Therefore, increased efforts to better represent these regions in global climate models have been made in recent years. Up to now, the available database of in situ measurements from the Arctic was biased towards Alaska and records from the Eurasian Arctic were scarce.
Kjetil S. Aas, Léo Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Hanna Lee, Terje K. Berntsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 591–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-591-2019, 2019
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Many permafrost landscapes contain large amounts of excess ground ice, which gives rise to small-scale elevation differences. This results in lateral fluxes of snow, water, and heat, which we investigate and show how it can be accounted for in large-scale models. Using a novel model technique which can account for these differences, we are able to model both the current state of permafrost and how these landscapes change as permafrost thaws, in a way that could not previously be achieved.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Isabelle Gouttevin, Moritz Langer, Henning Löwe, Julia Boike, Martin Proksch, and Martin Schneebeli
The Cryosphere, 12, 3693–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018, 2018
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Snow insulates the ground from the cold air in the Arctic winter, majorly affecting permafrost. This insulation depends on snow characteristics and is poorly quantified. Here, we characterize it at a carbon-rich permafrost site, using a recent technique that retrieves the 3-D structure of snow and its thermal properties. We adapt a snowpack model enabling the simulation of this insulation over a whole winter. We estimate that local snow variations induce up to a 6 °C spread in soil temperatures.
Hannes H. Bauser, Daniel Berg, Ole Klein, and Kurt Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4921–4934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4921-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4921-2018, 2018
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Data assimilation methods like the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) can combine models and measurements to estimate states and parameters, but require a proper representation of uncertainties. In soil hydrology, model errors typically vary rapidly in space and time, which is difficult to represent. Inflation methods can account for unrepresented model errors. To improve estimations in soil hydrology, we designed a method that can adjust the inflation of states and parameters to fast varying errors.
Stefan Jaumann and Kurt Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2551–2573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2551-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2551-2018, 2018
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Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is a noninvasive and nondestructive measurement method to monitor the hydraulic processes precisely and efficiently. We analyze synthetic as well as measured data from the ASSESS test site and show that the analysis yields accurate estimates for the soil hydraulic material properties as well as for the subsurface architecture by comparing the results to references derived from time domain reflectometry (TDR) and subsurface architecture ground truth data.
Simon Zwieback, Steven V. Kokelj, Frank Günther, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse, and Irena Hajnsek
The Cryosphere, 12, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018, 2018
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We analyse elevation losses at thaw slumps, at which icy sediments are exposed. As ice requires a large amount of energy to melt, one would expect that mass wasting is governed by the available energy. However, we observe very little mass wasting in June, despite the ample energy supply. Also, in summer, mass wasting is not always energy limited. This highlights the importance of other processes, such as the formation of a protective veneer, in shaping mass wasting at sub-seasonal scales.
Mahdi Nakhavali, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ronny Lauerwald, Jing Tang, Sarah Chadburn, Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Anna Harper, David Walmsley, Matthias Peichl, and Bert Gielen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 593–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-593-2018, 2018
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In order to provide a better understanding of the Earth's carbon cycle, we need a model that represents the whole continuum from atmosphere to land and into the ocean. In this study we include in JULES a representation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) processes. Our results show that the model is able to reproduce the DOC concentration and controlling processes, including leaching to the riverine system, which is fundamental for integrating the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem.
Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Julia Boike, and Laurent Bertino
The Cryosphere, 12, 247–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-247-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate how snow cover data from satellites can be used to constrain estimates of snow distributions at sites in the Arctic. In this effort, we make use of data assimilation to combine the information contained in the snow cover data with a simple snow model. By comparing our snow distribution estimates to independent observations, we find that this method performs favorably. Being modular, this method could be applied to other areas as a component of a larger reanalysis system.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Gerhard Krinner, Philipp Porada, Annett Bartsch, Christian Beer, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Julia Boike, Altug Ekici, Bo Elberling, Thomas Friborg, Gustaf Hugelius, Margareta Johansson, Peter Kuhry, Lars Kutzbach, Moritz Langer, Magnus Lund, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Shushi Peng, Ko Van Huissteden, Tao Wang, Sebastian Westermann, Dan Zhu, and Eleanor J. Burke
Biogeosciences, 14, 5143–5169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017, 2017
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Earth system models (ESMs) are our main tools for understanding future climate. The Arctic is important for the future carbon cycle, particularly due to the large carbon stocks in permafrost. We evaluated the performance of the land component of three major ESMs at Arctic tundra sites, focusing on the fluxes and stocks of carbon.
We show that the next steps for model improvement are to better represent vegetation dynamics, to include mosses and to improve below-ground carbon cycle processes.
Stefan Jaumann and Kurt Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4301–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4301-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4301-2017, 2017
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We investigate the quantitative effect of neglected sensor position, small-scale heterogeneity, and lateral flow on soil hydraulic material properties. Thus, we analyze a fluctuating water table experiment in a 2-D architecture (ASSESS) with increasingly complex studies based on time domain reflectometry and hydraulic potential data. We found that 1-D studies may yield biased parameters and that estimating sensor positions as well as small-scale heterogeneity improves the model significantly.
Sabrina Marx, Katharina Anders, Sofia Antonova, Inga Beck, Julia Boike, Philip Marsh, Moritz Langer, and Bernhard Höfle
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2017-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2017-49, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Global climate warming causes permafrost to warm and thaw, and, consequently, to release the carbon into the atmosphere. Terrestrial laser scanning is evaluated and current methods are extended in the context of monitoring subsidence in Arctic permafrost regions. The extracted information is important to gain a deeper understanding of permafrost-related subsidence processes and provides highly accurate ground-truth data which is necessary for further developing area-wide monitoring methods.
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
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Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Sebastian Westermann, Maria Peter, Moritz Langer, Georg Schwamborn, Lutz Schirrmeister, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 11, 1441–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1441-2017, 2017
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We demonstrate a remote-sensing-based scheme estimating the evolution of ground temperature and active layer thickness by means of a ground thermal model. A comparison to in situ observations from the Lena River delta in Siberia indicates that the model is generally capable of reproducing the annual temperature regime and seasonal thawing of the ground. The approach could hence be a first step towards remote detection of ground thermal conditions in permafrost areas.
Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017
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There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
Sina Muster, Kurt Roth, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Annett Bartsch, Anne Morgenstern, Guido Grosse, Benjamin Jones, A. Britta K. Sannel, Ylva Sjöberg, Frank Günther, Christian Andresen, Alexandra Veremeeva, Prajna R. Lindgren, Frédéric Bouchard, Mark J. Lara, Daniel Fortier, Simon Charbonneau, Tarmo A. Virtanen, Gustaf Hugelius, Juri Palmtag, Matthias B. Siewert, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Julia Boike
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 317–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, 2017
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Waterbodies are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. Most waterbodies are ponds with a surface area smaller than 100 x 100 m. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake Database (PeRL) for the first time maps ponds as small as 10 x 10 m. PeRL maps can be used to document changes both by comparing them to historical and future imagery. The distribution of waterbodies in the Arctic is important to know in order to manage resources in the Arctic and to improve climate predictions in the Arctic.
Xicai Pan, Stefan Jaumann, Jiabao Zhang, and Kurt Roth
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-77, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This study proposes a new method for estimating hydraulic properties of active layers using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and 2D inverse hydrological modeling. This method creatively turns over the adverse features of undulating frost table for 1D inverse estimation of hydraulic parameters to assets for 2D inverse estimation. Its advantages include non-destructive observations, a bigger scale of the soil hydraulic properties and efficiency for permafrost studies.
Lutz Schirrmeister, Georg Schwamborn, Pier Paul Overduin, Jens Strauss, Margret C. Fuchs, Mikhail Grigoriev, Irina Yakshina, Janet Rethemeyer, Elisabeth Dietze, and Sebastian Wetterich
Biogeosciences, 14, 1261–1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1261-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1261-2017, 2017
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We investigate late Pleistocene permafrost at the Buor Khaya Peninsula (Laptev Sea, Siberia) for cryolithological, geochemical, and geochronological parameters. The sequences were composed of ice-oversaturated silts and fine-grained sands with 0.2 to 24 wt% of organic matter. The deposition was between 54.1 and 9.7 kyr BP. Due to coastal erosion, the biogeochemical signature of the deposits represents the terrestrial end-member, and is related to organic matter deposited in the marine realm.
Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, and Altug Ekici
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 959–975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, 2017
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There is a large amount of relatively inert organic carbon locked into permafrost soils. In a warming climate the permafrost will thaw and this organic carbon will become vulnerable to decomposition. This process is not typically included within Earth system models (ESMs). This paper describes the development of a vertically resolved soil organic carbon decomposition model which, in the future, can be included within the UKESM to quantify the response of the climate to permafrost carbon loss.
Heike Hildegard Zimmermann, Elena Raschke, Laura Saskia Epp, Kathleen Rosmarie Stoof-Leichsenring, Georg Schwamborn, Lutz Schirrmeister, Pier Paul Overduin, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Biogeosciences, 14, 575–596, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-575-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-575-2017, 2017
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Organic matter stored in permafrost will start decomposing due to climate warming. To better understand its composition in ice-rich Yedoma, we analyzed ancient sedimentary DNA, pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs throughout an 18.9 m long permafrost core. The combination of both proxies allow an interpretation both of regional floristic changes and of the local environmental conditions at the time of deposition.
Amund F. Borge, Sebastian Westermann, Ingvild Solheim, and Bernd Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 11, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1-2017, 2017
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Palsas and peat plateaus are permafrost landforms in subarctic mires which constitute sensitive ecosystems with strong significance for vegetation, wildlife, hydrology and carbon cycle. We have systematically mapped the occurrence of palsas and peat plateaus in northern Norway by interpretation of aerial images from the 1950s until today. The results show that about half of the area of palsas and peat plateaus has disappeared due to lateral erosion and melting of ground ice in the last 50 years.
Hannes H. Bauser, Stefan Jaumann, Daniel Berg, and Kurt Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4999–5014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4999-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4999-2016, 2016
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The representation of soil water movement comes with uncertainties in all model components. We assess the key uncertainties for the case of a one-dimensional soil profile with measured water contents. We employ a data assimilation method to represent and reduce the key uncertainties. For intermittent phases where model assumptions are violated, we introduce a "closed-eye period" to bridge the gap. We also demonstrate the need to include heterogeneity.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
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The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Xicai Pan, Yanping Li, Qihao Yu, Xiaogang Shi, Daqing Yang, and Kurt Roth
The Cryosphere, 10, 1591–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1591-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1591-2016, 2016
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Using a 9-year dataset in conjunction with a process-based model, we verify that the common assumption of a considerably smaller thermal conductivity in the thawed season than the frozen season is not valid at a site with a stratified active layer on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). The unique hydraulic and thermal mechanism in the active layer challenges the concept of thermal offset used in conceptual permafrost models and hints at the reason for rapid permafrost warming on the QTP.
Pier Paul Overduin, Sebastian Wetterich, Frank Günther, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, Guido Grosse, Lutz Schirrmeister, Hans-Wolfgang Hubberten, and Aleksandr Makarov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1449–1462, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1449-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1449-2016, 2016
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How fast does permafrost warm up and thaw after it is covered by the sea? Ice-rich permafrost in the Laptev Sea, Siberia, is rapidly eroded by warm air and waves. We used a floating electrical technique to measure the depth of permafrost thaw below the sea, and compared it to 60 years of coastline retreat and permafrost depths from drilling 30 years ago. Thaw is rapid right after flooding of the land and slows over time. The depth of permafrost is related to how fast the coast retreats.
Kjersti Gisnås, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Kjetil Melvold, and Bernd Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 10, 1201–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1201-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1201-2016, 2016
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In wind exposed areas snow redistribution results in large spatial variability in ground temperatures. In these areas, the ground temperature of a grid cell must be determined based on the distribution, and not the average, of snow depths. We employ distribution functions of snow in a regional permafrost model, showing highly improved representation of ground temperatures. By including snow distributions, we find the permafrost area to be nearly twice as large as what is modelled without.
Fabian Beermann, Moritz Langer, Sebastian Wetterich, Jens Strauss, Julia Boike, Claudia Fiencke, Lutz Schirrmeister, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-117, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This paper aims to quantify pools of inorganic nitrogen in permafrost soils of arctic Siberia and to estimate annual release rates of this nitrogen due to permafrost thaw. We report for the first time stores of inorganic nitrogen in Siberian permafrost soils. These nitrogen stores are important as permafrost thaw can mobilize substantial amounts of nitrogen, potentially changing the nutrient balance of these soils and representing a significant non-carbon permafrost climate feedback.
S. Westermann, M. Langer, J. Boike, M. Heikenfeld, M. Peter, B. Etzelmüller, and G. Krinner
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 523–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-523-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-523-2016, 2016
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Thawing of permafrost is governed by a complex interplay of different processes, of which only conductive heat transfer is taken into account in most model studies. We present a new land-surface scheme designed for permafrost applications, CryoGrid 3, which constitutes a flexible platform to explore new parameterizations for a range of permafrost processes.
W. Wang, A. Rinke, J. C. Moore, X. Cui, D. Ji, Q. Li, N. Zhang, C. Wang, S. Zhang, D. M. Lawrence, A. D. McGuire, W. Zhang, C. Delire, C. Koven, K. Saito, A. MacDougall, E. Burke, and B. Decharme
The Cryosphere, 10, 287–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, 2016
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We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
P. Klenk, S. Jaumann, and K. Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-12215-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-12215-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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The main goal of our work is to quantify near-surface soil water dynamics by advancing non-invasive measurement methods such as surface-based Ground-Penetrating Radar (GPR). Here, we observe soil infiltration processes with a novel dual-frequency GPR system. The high precision of our approach allows (i) closely investigating the dynamic evolution of specific subsurface signals in different materials and (ii) monitoring the longterm effect of infiltration pulses over the course of several months.
J. Boike, C. Georgi, G. Kirilin, S. Muster, K. Abramova, I. Fedorova, A. Chetverova, M. Grigoriev, N. Bornemann, and M. Langer
Biogeosciences, 12, 5941–5965, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5941-2015, 2015
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We show that lakes in northern Siberia are very efficient with respect to energy absorption and mixing using measurements as well as numerical modeling. We show that (i) the lakes receive substantial energy for warming from net short-wave radiation; (ii) convective mixing occurs beneath the ice cover, follow beneath the ice cover, following ice break-up, summer, and fall (iii) modeling suggests that the annual mean net heat flux across the bottom sediment boundary is approximately zero.
S. Miyazaki, K. Saito, J. Mori, T. Yamazaki, T. Ise, H. Arakida, T. Hajima, Y. Iijima, H. Machiya, T. Sueyoshi, H. Yabuki, E. J. Burke, M. Hosaka, K. Ichii, H. Ikawa, A. Ito, A. Kotani, Y. Matsuura, M. Niwano, T. Nitta, R. O'ishi, T. Ohta, H. Park, T. Sasai, A. Sato, H. Sato, A. Sugimoto, R. Suzuki, K. Tanaka, S. Yamaguchi, and K. Yoshimura
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, 2015
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The paper provides an overall outlook and the Stage 1 experiment (site simulations) protocol of GTMIP, an open model intercomparison project for terrestrial Arctic, conducted as an activity of the Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA). Models are driven by 34-year data created with the GRENE-TEA observations at four sites in Finland, Siberia and Alaska, and evaluated for physico-ecological key processes: energy budgets, snow, permafrost, phenology, and carbon budget.
I. Beck, R. Ludwig, M. Bernier, T. Strozzi, and J. Boike
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 409–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-409-2015, 2015
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
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In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
W. A. Marra, S. J. McLelland, D. R. Parsons, B. J. Murphy, E. Hauber, and M. G. Kleinhans
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 389–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-389-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-389-2015, 2015
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Groundwater seepage creates valleys with typical theater-shaped valley heads, which are found on Earth and on Mars. For a better interpretation of these systems, we conducted scale experiments on the formation such valleys. We find that entire landscapes, instead of just the shape of the valleys, provide insights into the source of groundwater. Landscapes filled with valleys indicate a local groundwater source in contrast to sparsely dissected landscapes formed by a distal source of groundwater.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
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We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
A. Ekici, S. Chadburn, N. Chaudhary, L. H. Hajdu, A. Marmy, S. Peng, J. Boike, E. Burke, A. D. Friend, C. Hauck, G. Krinner, M. Langer, P. A. Miller, and C. Beer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1343–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1343-2015, 2015
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This paper compares the performance of different land models in estimating soil thermal regimes at distinct cold region landscape types. Comparing models with different processes reveal the importance of surface insulation (snow/moss layer) and soil internal processes (heat/water transfer). The importance of model processes also depend on site conditions such as high/low snow cover, dry/wet soil types.
S. Westermann, T. I. Østby, K. Gisnås, T. V. Schuler, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 9, 1303–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1303-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1303-2015, 2015
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We use remotely sensed land surface temperature and land cover in conjunction with air temperature and snowfall from a reanalysis product as input for a simple permafrost model. The scheme is applied to the permafrost regions bordering the North Atlantic. A comparison with ground temperatures in boreholes suggests a modeling accuracy of 2 to 2.5 °C.
T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Grosse, J. Strauss, L. Schirrmeister, A. Morgenstern, S. Schaphoff, M. Meinshausen, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015, 2015
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We have modelled the carbon release from thawing permafrost soils under various scenarios of future warming. Our results suggests that up to about 140Pg of carbon could be released under strong warming by end of the century. We have shown that abrupt thaw processes under thermokarst lakes can unlock large amounts of perennially frozen carbon stored in deep deposits (which extend many metres into the soil).
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
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Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
S. Westermann, B. Elberling, S. Højlund Pedersen, M. Stendel, B. U. Hansen, and G. E. Liston
The Cryosphere, 9, 719–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015, 2015
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The development of ground temperatures in permafrost areas is influenced by many factors varying on different spatial and temporal scales. We present numerical simulations of ground temperatures for the Zackenberg valley in NE Greenland, which take into account the spatial variability of snow depths, surface and ground properties at a scale of 10m. The ensemble of the model grid cells suggests a spatial variability of annual average ground temperatures of up to 5°C.
P. Klenk, S. Jaumann, and K. Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1125–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1125-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1125-2015, 2015
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In this study, we analyze a set of high-resolution, surface-based, 2-D ground-penetrating radar (GPR) observations of artificially induced subsurface water dynamics. In particular, we place close scrutiny on the evolution of the capillary fringe in a highly dynamic regime with surface-based time-lapse GPR. We thoroughly explain all observed phenomena based on theoretical soil physical considerations and numerical simulations of both subsurface water flow and the expected GPR response.
M. Langer, S. Westermann, K. Walter Anthony, K. Wischnewski, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 12, 977–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-977-2015, 2015
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Methane production rates of Arctic ponds during the freezing period within a typical tundra landscape in northern Siberia are presented. Production rates were inferred by inverse modeling based on measured methane concentrations in the ice cover. Results revealed marked differences in early winter methane production among ponds showing different stages of shore degradation. This suggests that shore erosion can increase methane production of Arctic ponds by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude.
F. Günther, P. P. Overduin, I. A. Yakshina, T. Opel, A. V. Baranskaya, and M. N. Grigoriev
The Cryosphere, 9, 151–178, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-151-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-151-2015, 2015
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Coastal erosion rates at Muostakh Island (eastern Siberian Arctic) have doubled, based on remotely sensed observations of land loss, and therefore the island will disappear prematurely. Based on analyses of seasonal variability of permafrost thaw, thermo-erosion increases by 1.2m per year when summer temperatures rise by 1°C. Due to rapid permafrost thaw, the land surface is subsiding up to 11cm per year, based on comparison of elevation changes and active layer thaw depth.
I. Fedorova, A. Chetverova, D. Bolshiyanov, A. Makarov, J. Boike, B. Heim, A. Morgenstern, P. P. Overduin, C. Wegner, V. Kashina, A. Eulenburg, E. Dobrotina, and I. Sidorina
Biogeosciences, 12, 345–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-345-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-345-2015, 2015
J. Lüers, S. Westermann, K. Piel, and J. Boike
Biogeosciences, 11, 6307–6322, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6307-2014, 2014
K. Gisnås, S. Westermann, T. V. Schuler, T. Litherland, K. Isaksen, J. Boike, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 8, 2063–2074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2063-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2063-2014, 2014
S. Yi, K. Wischnewski, M. Langer, S. Muster, and J. Boike
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1671–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1671-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1671-2014, 2014
B. Heim, E. Abramova, R. Doerffer, F. Günther, J. Hölemann, A. Kraberg, H. Lantuit, A. Loginova, F. Martynov, P. P. Overduin, and C. Wegner
Biogeosciences, 11, 4191–4210, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4191-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4191-2014, 2014
I. H. Taylor, E. Burke, L. McColl, P. D. Falloon, G. R. Harris, and D. McNeall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2339–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, 2013
F. Günther, P. P. Overduin, A. V. Sandakov, G. Grosse, and M. N. Grigoriev
Biogeosciences, 10, 4297–4318, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4297-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4297-2013, 2013
S. Westermann, T. V. Schuler, K. Gisnås, and B. Etzelmüller
The Cryosphere, 7, 719–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
A. Dagenbach, J. S. Buchner, P. Klenk, and K. Roth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 611–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-611-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-611-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Permafrost
Permafrost temperature baseline at 15 m depth on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (2010–2019)
Compilation and Analysis of Thaw Settlement Test Results: Implications for Prediction Tools and Stress-Strain Characterization in Permafrost
Rock Glacier Inventories (RoGI) in 12 areas worldwide using a multi-operator consensus-based procedure
Very high resolution aerial image orthomosaics, point clouds, and elevation datasets of select permafrost landscapes in Alaska and northwestern Canada
TPRoGI: a comprehensive rock glacier inventory for the Tibetan Plateau using deep learning
Multisource Synthesized Inventory of CRitical Infrastructure and HUman-Impacted Areas in AlaSka (SIRIUS)
The first hillslope thermokarst inventory for the permafrost region of the Qilian Mountains
An observational network of ground surface temperature under different land-cover types on the northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
Modern air, englacial and permafrost temperatures at high altitude on Mt Ortles (3905 m a.s.l.), in the eastern European Alps
A new 2010 permafrost distribution map over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau based on subregion survey maps: a benchmark for regional permafrost modeling
Long-term energy balance measurements at three different mountain permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps
Permafrost, active layer, and meteorological data (2010–2020) at the Mahan Mountain relict permafrost site of northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
New high-resolution estimates of the permafrost thermal state and hydrothermal conditions over the Northern Hemisphere
A synthesis dataset of permafrost thermal state for the Qinghai–Tibet (Xizang) Plateau, China
An integrated observation dataset of the hydrological and thermal deformation in permafrost slopes and engineering infrastructure in the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor
A 1 km resolution soil organic carbon dataset for frozen ground in the Third Pole
Historical and recent aufeis in the Indigirka River basin (Russia)
A 16-year record (2002–2017) of permafrost, active-layer, and meteorological conditions at the Samoylov Island Arctic permafrost research site, Lena River delta, northern Siberia: an opportunity to validate remote-sensing data and land surface, snow, and permafrost models
A long-term (2002 to 2017) record of closed-path and open-path eddy covariance CO2 net ecosystem exchange fluxes from the Siberian Arctic
A synthesis dataset of permafrost-affected soil thermal conditions for Alaska, USA
Northern Hemisphere surface freeze–thaw product from Aquarius L-band radiometers
High-resolution elevation mapping of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, and surrounding regions
PeRL: a circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake database
An extended global Earth system data record on daily landscape freeze–thaw status determined from satellite passive microwave remote sensing
Defu Zou, Lin Zhao, Guojie Hu, Erji Du, Guangyue Liu, Chong Wang, and Wangping Li
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1731–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1731-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1731-2025, 2025
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This study provides baseline data of permafrost temperature at 15 m depth on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) over the period 2010–2019 at a spatial resolution of nearly 1 km, using 231 borehole records and a machine learning method. The average MAGT15 m of the QTP permafrost was −1.85 °C, with 90 % of the values ranging from −5.1 to −0.1 °C and 51.2 % exceeding −1.5 °C. The data can serve as a crucial boundary condition for deeper permafrost assessments and a reference for model simulations.
Zakieh Mohammadi and Jocelyn L. Hayley
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-514, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-514, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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This study aims to enhance understanding of thaw settlement, a common issue caused by climate change that impacts infrastructures on permafrost. A comprehensive dataset of thaw settlement test results was compiled from existing literature. The dataset was used to compare thaw settlement properties across various soil types and to evaluate empirical tools commonly used for predicting thaw settlement, identifying the most accurate methods.
Line Rouyet, Tobias Bolch, Francesco Brardinoni, Rafael Caduff, Diego Cusicanqui, Margaret Darrow, Reynald Delaloye, Thomas Echelard, Christophe Lambiel, Lucas Ruiz, Lea Schmid, Flavius Sirbu, and Tazio Strozzi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-598, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-598, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Rock glaciers are landforms generated by the creep of frozen ground (permafrost) in cold-climate mountains. Mapping rock glaciers contributes to document the distribution and the dynamics of mountain permafrost. We compiled inventories documenting the location, the characteristics, and the extent of rock glaciers in 12 mountain regions around the world. In each region, a team of operators performed the work following common rules and agreed on final solutions when discrepancies were identified.
Tabea Rettelbach, Ingmar Nitze, Inge Grünberg, Jennika Hammar, Simon Schäffler, Daniel Hein, Matthias Gessner, Tilman Bucher, Jörg Brauchle, Jörg Hartmann, Torsten Sachs, Julia Boike, and Guido Grosse
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5767–5798, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5767-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5767-2024, 2024
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Permafrost landscapes in the Arctic are rapidly changing due to climate warming. Here, we publish aerial images and elevation models with very high spatial detail that help study these landscapes in northwestern Canada and Alaska. The images were collected using the Modular Aerial Camera System (MACS). This dataset has significant implications for understanding permafrost landscape dynamics in response to climate change. It is publicly available for further research.
Zhangyu Sun, Yan Hu, Adina Racoviteanu, Lin Liu, Stephan Harrison, Xiaowen Wang, Jiaxin Cai, Xin Guo, Yujun He, and Hailun Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5703–5721, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5703-2024, 2024
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We propose a new dataset, TPRoGI (v1.0), encompassing rock glaciers in the entire Tibetan Plateau. We used a neural network, DeepLabv3+, and images from Planet Basemaps. The inventory identified 44 273 rock glaciers, covering 6 000 km2, mainly at elevations of 4000 to 5500 m a.s.l. The dataset, with details on distribution and characteristics, aids in understanding permafrost distribution, mountain hydrology, and climate impacts in High Mountain Asia, filling a knowledge gap.
Soraya Kaiser, Julia Boike, Guido Grosse, and Moritz Langer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3719–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3719-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3719-2024, 2024
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Arctic warming, leading to permafrost degradation, poses primary threats to infrastructure and secondary ecological hazards from possible infrastructure failure. Our study created a comprehensive Alaska inventory combining various data sources with which we improved infrastructure classification and data on contaminated sites. This resource is presented as a GeoPackage allowing planning of infrastructure damage and possible implications for Arctic communities facing permafrost challenges.
Xiaoqing Peng, Guangshang Yang, Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Xuanjia Li, Weiwei Tian, Guanqun Chen, Yuan Huang, Gang Wei, Jing Luo, Cuicui Mu, and Fujun Niu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2033–2045, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2033-2024, 2024
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It is important to know about the distribution of thermokarst landscapes. However, most work has been done in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, except for the Qilian Mountains in the northeast. Here we used satellite images and field work to investigate and analyze its potential driving factors. We found a total of 1064 hillslope thermokarst (HT) features in this area, and 82 % were initiated in the last 10 years. These findings will be significant for the next predictions.
Raul-David Şerban, Huijun Jin, Mihaela Şerban, Giacomo Bertoldi, Dongliang Luo, Qingfeng Wang, Qiang Ma, Ruixia He, Xiaoying Jin, Xinze Li, Jianjun Tang, and Hongwei Wang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1425–1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1425-2024, 2024
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A particular observational network for ground surface temperature (GST) has been established on the northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, covering various environmental conditions and scales. This analysis revealed the substantial influences of the land cover on the spatial variability in GST over short distances (<16 m). Improving the monitoring of GST is important for the biophysical processes at the land–atmosphere boundary and for understanding the climate change impacts on cold environments.
Luca Carturan, Fabrizio De Blasi, Roberto Dinale, Gianfranco Dragà, Paolo Gabrielli, Volkmar Mair, Roberto Seppi, David Tonidandel, Thomas Zanoner, Tiziana Lazzarina Zendrini, and Giancarlo Dalla Fontana
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4661–4688, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4661-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new dataset of air, englacial, soil surface and rock wall temperatures collected between 2010 and 2016 on Mt Ortles, which is the highest summit of South Tyrol, Italy. Details are provided on instrument type and characteristics, field methods, and data quality control and assessment. The obtained data series are available through an open data repository. This is a rare dataset from a summit area lacking observations on permafrost and glaciers and their climatic response.
Zetao Cao, Zhuotong Nan, Jianan Hu, Yuhong Chen, and Yaonan Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3905–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3905-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3905-2023, 2023
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This study provides a new 2010 permafrost distribution map of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), using an effective mapping approach based entirely on satellite temperature data, well constrained by survey-based subregion maps, and considering the effects of local factors. The map shows that permafrost underlies about 41 % of the total QTP. We evaluated it with borehole observations and other maps, and all evidence indicates that this map has excellent accuracy.
Martin Hoelzle, Christian Hauck, Tamara Mathys, Jeannette Noetzli, Cécile Pellet, and Martin Scherler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1531–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1531-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1531-2022, 2022
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With ongoing climate change, it is crucial to understand the interactions of the individual heat fluxes at the surface and within the subsurface layers, as well as their impacts on the permafrost thermal regime. A unique set of high-altitude meteorological measurements has been analysed to determine the energy balance at three mountain permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps, where data have been collected since the late 1990s in collaboration with the Swiss Permafrost Monitoring Network (PERMOS).
Tonghua Wu, Changwei Xie, Xiaofan Zhu, Jie Chen, Wu Wang, Ren Li, Amin Wen, Dong Wang, Peiqing Lou, Chengpeng Shang, Yune La, Xianhua Wei, Xin Ma, Yongping Qiao, Xiaodong Wu, Qiangqiang Pang, and Guojie Hu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1257–1269, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1257-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1257-2022, 2022
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We presented an 11-year time series of meteorological, active layer, and permafrost data at the Mahan Mountain relict permafrost site in northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. From 2010 to 2020, the increasing rate of active layer thickness was 1.8 cm-year and the permafrost temperature showed slight changes. The release of those data would be helpful to understand the impacts of climate change on permafrost in relict permafrost regions and to validate the permafrost models and land surface models.
Youhua Ran, Xin Li, Guodong Cheng, Jingxin Che, Juha Aalto, Olli Karjalainen, Jan Hjort, Miska Luoto, Huijun Jin, Jaroslav Obu, Masahiro Hori, Qihao Yu, and Xiaoli Chang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 865–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-865-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-865-2022, 2022
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Datasets including ground temperature, active layer thickness, the probability of permafrost occurrence, and the zonation of hydrothermal condition with a 1 km resolution were released by integrating unprecedentedly large amounts of field data and multisource remote sensing data using multi-statistical\machine-learning models. It updates the understanding of the current thermal state and distribution for permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere.
Lin Zhao, Defu Zou, Guojie Hu, Tonghua Wu, Erji Du, Guangyue Liu, Yao Xiao, Ren Li, Qiangqiang Pang, Yongping Qiao, Xiaodong Wu, Zhe Sun, Zanpin Xing, Yu Sheng, Yonghua Zhao, Jianzong Shi, Changwei Xie, Lingxiao Wang, Chong Wang, and Guodong Cheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4207–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4207-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4207-2021, 2021
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Lack of a synthesis dataset of the permafrost state has greatly limited our understanding of permafrost-related research as well as the calibration and validation of RS retrievals and model simulation. We compiled this dataset, including ground temperature, active layer hydrothermal regimes, and meteorological indexes based on our observational network, and we summarized the basic changes in permafrost and its climatic conditions. It is the first comprehensive dataset on permafrost for the QXP.
Lihui Luo, Yanli Zhuang, Mingyi Zhang, Zhongqiong Zhang, Wei Ma, Wenzhi Zhao, Lin Zhao, Li Wang, Yanmei Shi, Ze Zhang, Quntao Duan, Deyu Tian, and Qingguo Zhou
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4035–4052, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4035-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4035-2021, 2021
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We implement a variety of sensors to monitor the hydrological and thermal deformation between permafrost slopes and engineering projects in the hinterland of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. We present the integrated observation dataset from the 1950s to 2020, explaining the instrumentation, processing, data visualisation, and quality control.
Dong Wang, Tonghua Wu, Lin Zhao, Cuicui Mu, Ren Li, Xianhua Wei, Guojie Hu, Defu Zou, Xiaofan Zhu, Jie Chen, Junmin Hao, Jie Ni, Xiangfei Li, Wensi Ma, Amin Wen, Chengpeng Shang, Yune La, Xin Ma, and Xiaodong Wu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3453–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3453-2021, 2021
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The Third Pole regions are important components in the global permafrost, and the detailed spatial soil organic carbon data are the scientific basis for environmental protection as well as the development of Earth system models. Based on multiple environmental variables and soil profile data, this study use machine-learning approaches to evaluate the SOC storage and spatial distribution at a depth interval of 0–3 m in the frozen ground area of the Third Pole region.
Olga Makarieva, Andrey Shikhov, Nataliia Nesterova, and Andrey Ostashov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 409–420, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-409-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-409-2019, 2019
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Aufeis is formed through a complex interconnection between river water and groundwater. The dynamics of aufeis assessed by the analysis of remote sensing data can be viewed as an indicator of groundwater changes in warming climate which are otherwise difficult to be observed naturally in remote arctic areas. The spatial geodatabase developed shows that aufeis formation conditions may have changed between the mid-20th century and the present in the Indigirka River basin.
Julia Boike, Jan Nitzbon, Katharina Anders, Mikhail Grigoriev, Dmitry Bolshiyanov, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Niko Bornemann, Anne Morgenstern, Peter Schreiber, Christian Wille, Sarah Chadburn, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 261–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-261-2019, 2019
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Long-term observational data are available from the Samoylov research site in northern Siberia, where meteorological parameters, energy balance, and subsurface observations have been recorded since 1998. This paper presents the temporal data set produced between 2002 and 2017, explaining the instrumentation, calibration, processing, and data quality control. Furthermore, we present a merged dataset of the parameters, which were measured from 1998 onwards.
David Holl, Christian Wille, Torsten Sachs, Peter Schreiber, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Lutz Beckebanze, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Eva-Maria Pfeiffer, Irina Fedorova, Dimitry Y. Bolshianov, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, and Lars Kutzbach
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 221–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-221-2019, 2019
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We present a multi-annual time series of land–atmosphere carbon dioxide fluxes measured in situ with the eddy covariance technique in the Siberian Arctic. In arctic permafrost regions, climate–carbon feedbacks are amplified. Therefore, increased efforts to better represent these regions in global climate models have been made in recent years. Up to now, the available database of in situ measurements from the Arctic was biased towards Alaska and records from the Eurasian Arctic were scarce.
Kang Wang, Elchin Jafarov, Irina Overeem, Vladimir Romanovsky, Kevin Schaefer, Gary Clow, Frank Urban, William Cable, Mark Piper, Christopher Schwalm, Tingjun Zhang, Alexander Kholodov, Pamela Sousanes, Michael Loso, and Kenneth Hill
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2311–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2311-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2311-2018, 2018
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Ground thermal and moisture data are important indicators of the rapid permafrost changes in the Arctic. To better understand the changes, we need a comprehensive dataset across various sites. We synthesize permafrost-related data in the state of Alaska. It should be a valuable permafrost dataset that is worth maintaining in the future. On a wider level, it also provides a prototype of basic data collection and management for permafrost regions in general.
Michael Prince, Alexandre Roy, Ludovic Brucker, Alain Royer, Youngwook Kim, and Tianjie Zhao
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2055–2067, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2055-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2055-2018, 2018
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This paper presents the weekly polar-gridded Aquarius passive L-band surface freeze–thaw product (FT-AP) distributed on the EASE-Grid 2.0 with a resolution of 36 km. To evaluate the product, we compared it with the resampled 37 GHz FT Earth Science Data Record during the overlapping period between 2011 and 2014. The FT-AP ensures, with the SMAP mission that is still in operation, an L-band passive FT monitoring continuum with NASA’s space-borne radiometers, for a period beginning in August 2011.
Andrew G. Fountain, Juan C. Fernandez-Diaz, Maciej Obryk, Joseph Levy, Michael Gooseff, David J. Van Horn, Paul Morin, and Ramesh Shrestha
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 435–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-435-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-435-2017, 2017
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We present detailed surface elevation measurements for the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, and surroundings, derived from aerial lidar surveys flown in the austral summer of 2014–2015 as part of an effort to understand landscape changes over the past decade. Lidar return density varied from 2 to > 10 returns per square meter with an average of about 5 returns per square meter. vertical and horizontal accuracies are estimated to be 7 cm and 3 cm, respectively.
Sina Muster, Kurt Roth, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Annett Bartsch, Anne Morgenstern, Guido Grosse, Benjamin Jones, A. Britta K. Sannel, Ylva Sjöberg, Frank Günther, Christian Andresen, Alexandra Veremeeva, Prajna R. Lindgren, Frédéric Bouchard, Mark J. Lara, Daniel Fortier, Simon Charbonneau, Tarmo A. Virtanen, Gustaf Hugelius, Juri Palmtag, Matthias B. Siewert, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Julia Boike
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 317–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, 2017
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Waterbodies are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. Most waterbodies are ponds with a surface area smaller than 100 x 100 m. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake Database (PeRL) for the first time maps ponds as small as 10 x 10 m. PeRL maps can be used to document changes both by comparing them to historical and future imagery. The distribution of waterbodies in the Arctic is important to know in order to manage resources in the Arctic and to improve climate predictions in the Arctic.
Youngwook Kim, John S. Kimball, Joseph Glassy, and Jinyang Du
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 133–147, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-133-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-133-2017, 2017
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A new freeze–thaw (FT) Earth system data record (ESDR) was developed from satellite passive microwave remote sensing that quantifies the daily landscape frozen or non-frozen status over a 25 km resolution global grid and 1979–2014 record. The FT-ESDR shows favorable accuracy and performance, enabling new studies of climate change and frozen season impacts on surface water mobility and ecosystem processes.
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Short summary
A 20-year data record from the Bayelva site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, is presented on meteorology, energy balance components, surface and subsurface observations. This paper presents the data set, instrumentation, calibration, processing and data quality control. The data show that mean annual, summer and winter soil temperature data from shallow to deeper depths have been warming over the period of record, indicating the degradation and loss of permafrost at this site.
A 20-year data record from the Bayelva site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, is presented on...
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