Articles | Volume 18, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2443-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Reconstruction of δ13CDIC in the Atlantic Ocean: a probabilistic machine learning approach for filling historical data gaps
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- Final revised paper (published on 02 Apr 2026)
- Preprint (discussion started on 01 Sep 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on essd-2025-517', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 Oct 2025
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AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Hui Gao, 21 Dec 2025
- AC4: 'Reply on AC3', Hui Gao, 21 Dec 2025
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AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Hui Gao, 21 Dec 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on essd-2025-517', Patrick Rafter, 22 Oct 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Hui Gao, 21 Dec 2025
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RC3: 'Comment on essd-2025-517', Bin Lu, 15 Nov 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC3', Hui Gao, 21 Dec 2025
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Hui Gao on behalf of the Authors (21 Dec 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (07 Jan 2026) by Xingchen (Tony) Wang
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (21 Jan 2026)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (26 Jan 2026) by Xingchen (Tony) Wang
AR by Hui Gao on behalf of the Authors (05 Feb 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (07 Feb 2026) by Xingchen (Tony) Wang
RR by Patrick Rafter (10 Feb 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (03 Mar 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (03 Mar 2026) by Xingchen (Tony) Wang
AR by Hui Gao on behalf of the Authors (05 Mar 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Publish as is (09 Mar 2026) by Xingchen (Tony) Wang
AR by Hui Gao on behalf of the Authors (09 Mar 2026)
Post-review adjustments
AA – Author's adjustment | EA – Editor approval
AA by Hui Gao on behalf of the Authors (30 Mar 2026)
Author's adjustment
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EA: Adjustments approved (30 Mar 2026) by Xingchen (Tony) Wang
This is an interesting and generally well-written study addressing a worthy topic. The paper has good fundamentals and should be able to made into a solid contribution to the scientific literature. However, I believe it requires iteration, and likely additional analysis, before it will be suitable for publication at this journal.
I have three areas of criticism and one note of caution. The note of caution is just that I’m skeptical of the uinput calculation, see the line by line comments below.
My first criticism is that that validation was not handled as well as it should have been. See line by line comments below for an easy-to-implement and necessary improvement for the validation section. Separately, a suggestion that would further reinforce the validity of the method would be to implement the method in a model environment. This is now common practice for validation of machine learning refits of sparse observations, and is likely necessary for a first attempt with carbon isotopes, particularly one with such unusually sparse observations. There are numerous model simulations available that have explicitly simulated carbon isotopes (e.g., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1709-2024 though there are many others). It should be workable to obtain one or more such set of outputs, subsample the distribution(s) across both time and space, apply random and cruise-wide systematic perturbations to the extracted output to represent measurement uncertainties, fit a ML model to the output, reconstruct the full distribution, and then evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the full 4D reconstruction. This reveals critical information that is not provided by a reconstruction of a sparse data product with uneven and imperfect measurements of an unknown true distribution.
The second criticism is that the paper is not very well motivated at present. The authors state repeatedly that the upsampled distribution can be used for many new analyses, but the new product still has almost all of the limitations that the previous product… it is still sparse and uneven in space in time, just less so, and it now has the added complications from layers of machine learning smoothing. While I admit that the new data product is smoother spatially and less biased temporally, I don’t see that the authors have fully solved any problem with their current presentation. To that point, the authors mostly suggest ways that this might now be used, but do not go so far as to demonstrate any such analysis that would be quantitatively improved with the new product. I would like to see either more concrete examples of new analyses shown (not just listed), or, as such an example, a reorientation of the work toward estimating the full Atlantic distribution of the isotopes across space and time. For a spatially complete record they might apply the ML model to the GLODAPv2 gridded product. For a spatially and temporally complete product they might consider either using a time varying TS product and/or GOBAI-O2 (with estimates of the other predictors from other such ML refits in literature as necessary). In both cases, there would be some meaningful errors in the predictors, but, at least currently, the authors are suggesting that their estimates are completely insensitive to any plausible error in the predictors, so that may or may not be a concern (I suspect it will be after the uinput is re-evaluated).
Finally, the presentation of the dataset is a bit confusing (I only checked the .mat, but I'm assuming this applies to all files at Zenodo). The file contains essentially all of the fields from GLODAPv2 with their adjusted DI13C, which is called adjusted_C13, capitalizing "C" contrary to the GLODAP convention. If the goal is to make the file supplemental to and interoperable with GLODAPv2, then it would be better to release a file that has the full >10^6 rows, but only contains c13 data and has -999 except for the appropriate Atlantic subset. This way, someone could load GLODAPv2 and then load this file and have them both available and ready to access in identical formats. They could also easily sub in data from, for example, other other basins where this data product is missing observations but the GLODAPv2 product has them. This will also remind users to cite both products, rather than just grabbing all of the data from this new product and incorrectly attributing, for example, aou and cfcs to a data product that is only updating C13 and repackaging everything else. Finally, I think the Zenodo link would benefit from more descriptive text or a readme explaining what subset of data is presented, which fields are the new fields, how they are labeled, and how to make the data interoperable with, for example, measurements of DI13C in other ocean basins.
A minor criticism is that the paper is repetitive in places, repeatedly restating key claims throughout the manuscript.
To reiterate, I generally feel this paper can become a worthwhile contribution and should not be rejected unless these elements cannot be addressed. The text above is focused on constructive criticism, but the fundamentals of the paper remain strong.
Line by line comments:
42: lacked
94: this assertion needs further quantification in the North Atlantic, where there are routinely measurable decadal increases in Canth
97: along A61N, no “the” is needed
123: which standard depths?
125: how are adjustments proposed precisely?
125: how are adjustments validated precisely?
133: please explain this metric. How is consistency at 10^-5 level when the measurement uncertainty is orders of magnitude larger?
150: typically in oceanography, the k fold cross validation is separated by cruise rather than by randomly selecting measurements. This is because cruises are synoptic records of the state of the ocean, and having many other measurements at similar times and locations and measured by the same instruments and the same operators, as are provided by other measurements along a cruise, provides an overly-rosy set of validation statistics. It is therefore important to only use other cruises to construct the validation models for measurements along any given cruise. This validation exercise needs to be redone to follow this practice, or re-written to better convey that this practice was already adopted (if it was).
215: following this procedure, I would expect the uinpts to be larger than it was found to be. To be clear, I’m not surprised that it is small, but I am surprised that it is more than 10 orders of magnitude smaller than other sources of error. Surely a temperature input error of 20,000,000 degrees C would be expected to yield a bad estimate, yet this does not currently appear to be the case by that estimate of uinput. Does that suggest that the model is mostly a fit to the coordinate predictors that are assumed to have no uncertainty? If so, would it make sense to include some uncertainty in these predictors, given that CTD rosettes are not always directly below the ship and the ships don’t always stay exactly on station for a profile? Please also check that the uncertainty reported in the abstract isn’t the MBE of the Monte Carlo analysis. If unchanged, please explain this counter intuitive finding.
234: repeating comments from line 150
245: what is normalized sample density?
375: This is hinting at an application, but is not itself an application. We’ve only learned about KDEs here, and not about the ocean.
Figure 8b: the darkness of the borders on the mean values make this plot hard to parse. Consider lightening the width of those black lines, somewhat.
8c: consider changing axis limits from 0 to 3, even if this cuts off a miniscule portion of the sample distribution
395: couldn’t you now further parse this information by holding every predictor except xCO2 constant and varying that to estimate the change in the delta that would be expected had all physical and biogeochemical processes been held constant for a decade?
448: This is a seriously dense sentence. Please break it into two or more sentences and revise them both to employ plain language (limiting jargon and buzzwords) wherever possible.
451: I don’t think a good predictor of local flux is going to lead to a good prediction of local inventory. Consider deleting this sentence.