Articles | Volume 18, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-167-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-167-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Data description article
| 
07 Jan 2026
Data description article |
| 07 Jan 2026
| 07 Jan 2026
An inter-comparison of inverse models for estimating European CH4 emissions
Eleftherios Ioannidis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
now at: Research & Development Satellite Observations, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Antoon Meesters
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Michael Steiner
Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland
Dominik Brunner
Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland
Friedemann Reum
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Isabelle Pison
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Antoine Berchet
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Rona Thompson
NILU, Kjeller, Norway
Espen Sollum
NILU, Kjeller, Norway
Frank-Thomas Koch
Meteorological Observatory Hohenpeissenberg, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeissenberg, Germany
Department of Biogeochemical Signals, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Christoph Gerbig
Department of Biogeochemical Signals, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Fenjuan Wang
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Shamil Maksyutov
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Aki Tsuruta
Climate System Research,Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Maria Tenkanen
Climate System Research,Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Tuula Aalto
Climate System Research,Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Guillaume Monteil
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
now at: Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Hong Lin
Division of Thermophysics Metrology, National Institute of Metrology, Beijing, China
Zhengzhou Institute of Metrology, Zhengzhou, China
Ge Ren
Division of Thermophysics Metrology, National Institute of Metrology, Beijing, China
Zhengzhou Institute of Metrology, Zhengzhou, China
Marko Scholze
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Sander Houweling
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
SRON, Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Leiden, the Netherlands
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We developed methods to reduce noise in satellite images that track air pollution, good for making faint emission signals easier to detect. By using clearer measurements of a related gas, our techniques improve image quality by up to 60 percent, allowing more accurate identification of pollution sources. Tested with simulated and real satellite data, this approach could enhance monitoring of emissions and support better environmental decisions.
Rona L. Thompson, Nalini Krishnankutty, Ignacio Pisso, Philipp Schneider, Kerstin Stebel, Motoki Sasakawa, Andreas Stohl, and Stephen M. Platt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 12737–12751, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-12737-2025, 2025
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Satellite remote sensing of atmospheric mixing ratios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) can provide information on their emissions. This study presents a novel method to use atmospheric mixing ratios observed by satellites with a Lagrangian model of atmospheric transport to estimate GHG emissions. This method can reduce model errors resulting from how an observation is represented by an atmospheric model, thereby helping to reduce the errors in the GHG emissions derived.
Ella Kivimäki, Maria Tenkanen, Tuula Aalto, Michael Buchwitz, Kari Luojus, Jouni Pulliainen, Kimmo Rautiainen, Oliver Schneising, Anu-Maija Sundström, Johanna Tamminen, Aki Tsuruta, and Hannakaisa Lindqvist
Biogeosciences, 22, 5193–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5193-2025, 2025
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We study how environmental variables influencing natural methane fluxes explain the seasonal variability in satellite-observed methane in Northern Hemisphere high-latitude wetland areas. Using two atmospheric model set-ups, we assess consistency with satellite data. Methane loss through reaction with hydroxyl radicals and links with snow cover, temperature, and snowmelt had the strongest influence. Our study highlights the value of satellite observations for understanding large-scale wetland emissions.
Carlos Gómez-Ortiz, Guillaume Monteil, Ute Karstens, and Marko Scholze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 10747–10771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-10747-2025, 2025
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In 2024, an intensive sampling campaign was conducted to improve fossil CO2 emission estimates in Europe using 14C measurements. By testing different strategies for selecting air samples, this study shows that increasing sample frequency and carefully choosing samples based on their fossil fuel and nuclear content leads to more accurate results, reducing the uncertainty and bias of the estimates.
Yuming Jin, Britton B. Stephens, Matthew C. Long, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Joram J. D. Hooghiem, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Shamil Maksyutov, Eric J. Morgan, Yosuke Niwa, Prabir K. Patra, Christian Rödenbeck, and Jesse Vance
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5937–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5937-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5937-2025, 2025
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We carry out a comprehensive atmospheric transport model (ATM) intercomparison project. This project aims to evaluate errors in ATMs and three air-sea O2 flux products by comparing model simulations with observations collected from surface stations, ships, and aircraft. We also present a model evaluation framework to independently quantify transport-related and flux-related biases that contribute to model-observation discrepancies in atmospheric tracer distributions.
Jalisha Theanutti Kallingal, Marko Scholze, Paul Anthony Miller, Johan Lindström, Janne Rinne, Mika Aurela, Patrik Vestin, and Per Weslien
Biogeosciences, 22, 4061–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4061-2025, 2025
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We explored the possibilities of a Bayesian-based data assimilation algorithm to improve the wetland CH4 flux estimates by a dynamic vegetation model. By assimilating CH4 observations from 14 wetland sites, we calibrated model parameters and estimated large-scale annual emissions from northern wetlands. Our findings indicate that this approach leads to more reliable estimates of CH4 dynamics, which will improve our understanding of the climate change feedback from wetland CH4 emissions.
August Thomasson, Pontus Roldin, Nick Schutgens, Babitha George, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Guillaume Monteil, and Marko Scholze
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1568, 2025
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We present top-down black carbon emissions estimates in Europe based on surface observations of concentrations at 24 rural sites from 2021. The annual emissions are 411 ± 10 Gg, overall 18 % higher compared to a traditional bottom-up estimate. Emissions are higher in for instance eastern Europe and the Iberian peninsula but lower in Poland and Italy. Validation with independent observations show overall better match and the uncertainties are reduced.
Theo Glauch, Julia Marshall, Christoph Gerbig, Santiago Botía, Michał Gałkowski, Sanam N. Vardag, and André Butz
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4713–4742, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4713-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4713-2025, 2025
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The Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) estimates carbon exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere by modeling gross primary production and respiration using satellite data and weather variables. Our new version, pyVPRM, supports diverse satellite products like Sentinel-2, MODIS, VIIRS, and new land cover maps, enabling high spatial and temporal resolution. This improves flux estimates, especially in complex landscapes, and ensures continuity as MODIS nears decommissioning.
Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel, Fredrik Jansson, Bart J. H. van Stratum, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4571-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4571-2025, 2025
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We introduce a new simulation platform based on the Dutch Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES) to simulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their dispersion in turbulent environments at a hectometer resolution. This model incorporates both anthropogenic emission inventories and online ecosystem fluxes. Simulation results for the main urban area in the Netherlands demonstrate the strong potential of DALES to improve CO2 emission modeling and to support mitigation strategies.
Aki Tsuruta, Akihiko Kuze, Kei Shiomi, Fumie Kataoka, Nobuhiro Kikuchi, Tuula Aalto, Leif Backman, Ella Kivimäki, Maria K. Tenkanen, Kathryn McKain, Omaira E. García, Frank Hase, Rigel Kivi, Isamu Morino, Hirofumi Ohyama, David F. Pollard, Mahesh K. Sha, Kimberly Strong, Ralf Sussmann, Yao Te, Voltaire A. Velazco, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Thorsten Warneke, Minqiang Zhou, and Hiroshi Suto
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7829–7862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7829-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7829-2025, 2025
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Satellite data bring invaluable information about greenhouse gas emissions globally. We found that a new type of data from the Greenhouse Gas Observing Satellite (GOSAT), which contains information about methane in the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere, could provide reliable estimates of recent methane emissions when combined with atmospheric modelling. Therefore, the use of such data is encouraged to improve emission quantification methods and advance our understanding of methane cycles.
Rimal Abeed, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Grégoire Broquet, Robin Plauchu, Isabelle Pison, Antoine Berchet, Elise Potier, Bo Zheng, Gaëlle Dufour, Adriana Coman, Dilek Savas, Guillaume Siour, Henk Eskes, Beatriz Revilla-Romero, Antony Delavois, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3329, 2025
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We investigate changes in air pollution from nitrogen oxides NOx (=NO+NO2) across Eastern China from 2019 to 2021, using a satellite-based modelling approach. Our results show a drop in pollution in 2020 in most provinces, and along the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor. The analysis also captures emission variations during the Lunar New Year. By estimating emissions at the provincial level, the study provides insights into how major events and policy measures influence local air quality.
Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Camille Huselstein, Clément Narbaud, Marine Remaud, Sauveur Belviso, Camille Abadie, and Fabienne Maignan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 7499–7525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7499-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-7499-2025, 2025
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We use the measurements of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS) concentrations at the monitoring site of Gif-sur-Yvette (in the Paris region) from August 2014 to December 2019, combined with existing knowledge on COS fluxes in the atmosphere and a transport model, to gain insight into COS fluxes, either natural, such as oceanic emissions or vegetation and soil fluxes, or anthropogenic, from industrial activities and power generation.
Antti Laitinen, Hermanni Aaltonen, Christoph Zellweger, Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, and Juha Hatakka
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 3109–3133, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-3109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-3109-2025, 2025
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This paper presents long-term observations of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 mole fractions and a comparison of two permanent and two mobile measurement systems located in Northern Finland. Furthermore, the observed mole fractions are compared against the mean marine boundary layer product for the Northern Hemisphere. The comparisons of all the systems show good agreement in relation to the World Meteorological Organization/Global Atmosphere Watch network compatibility goal limits for CO2 and CH4.
Aurélien Sicsik-Paré, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Isabelle Pison, Grégoire Broquet, Alvin Opler, Elise Potier, Adrien Martinez, Oliver Schneising, Michael Buchwitz, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Tobias Borsdorff, and Antoine Berchet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2622, 2025
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Assimilating satellite observations from TROPOMI provides top-down quantification of regional methane emissions. This study compares European emissions in 2019 estimated from the inversion of three TROPOMI datasets. We find inconsistencies in national budgets and spatial patterns, with no product clearly superior. We disentangle drivers of the differences, highlighting the impact of differences in coverage, observations and associated errors on the consistency of methane emission estimates.
Santiago Botía, Saqr Munassar, Thomas Koch, Danilo Custodio, Luana S. Basso, Shujiro Komiya, Jost V. Lavric, David Walter, Manuel Gloor, Giordane Martins, Stijn Naus, Gerbrand Koren, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Stijn Hantson, John B. Miller, Wouter Peters, Christian Rödenbeck, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6219–6255, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6219-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6219-2025, 2025
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This study uses dry CO2 mole fractions from the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory together with airborne profiles to estimate net carbon exchange in tropical South America. We found that the biogeographic Amazon is a net carbon sink, while the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes are net carbon sources, resulting in an overall neutral balance. Finally, to further reduce the uncertainty in our estimates we call for an expansion of the monitoring capacity, especially in the Amazon–Andes foothills.
Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Grégoire Broquet, Elise Potier, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Adrien Martinez, Robin Plauchu, Rimal Abeed, Aurélien Sicsik-Paré, Gaelle Dufour, Adriana Coman, Dilek Savas, Guillaume Siour, Henk Eskes, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, and Stijn N. C. Dellaert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 6047–6068, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-6047-2025, 2025
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This study assesses the potential of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations to inform about the decrease in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in 2019 compared with 2005 at regional to national scales in Europe. Both the OMI and TROPOMI inversions show decreases in European NOx anthropogenic emission budgets in 2019 compared to 2005 but with different magnitudes.
Gerrit Kuhlmann, Foteini Stavropoulou, Stefan Schwietzke, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Andrew Thorpe, Andreas Hueni, Lukas Emmenegger, Andreea Calcan, Thomas Röckmann, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5371–5385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5371-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5371-2025, 2025
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A measurement campaign in 2019 found that methane emissions from oil and gas in Romania were significantly higher than reported. In 2021, our follow-up campaign using airborne remote sensing showed a marked decreases in emissions by 20 %–60 % due to improved infrastructure. The study highlights the importance of measurement-based emission monitoring and illustrates the value of a multi-scale assessment integrating ground-based observations with large-scale airborne remote sensing campaigns.
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter A. Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joël Thanwerdas, Hanqin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido R. van der Werf, Douglas E. J. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1873–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025, 2025
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Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesise and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progress in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
Stavros Stagakis, Dominik Brunner, Junwei Li, Leif Backman, Anni Karvonen, Lionel Constantin, Leena Järvi, Minttu Havu, Jia Chen, Sophie Emberger, and Liisa Kulmala
Biogeosciences, 22, 2133–2161, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2133-2025, 2025
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The balance between CO2 uptake and emissions from urban green areas is still not well understood. This study evaluated for the first time the urban park CO2 exchange simulations with four different types of biosphere model by comparing them with observations. Even though some advantages and disadvantages of the different model types were identified, there was no strong evidence that more complex models performed better than simple ones.
Wolfgang Knorr, Matthew Williams, Tea Thum, Thomas Kaminski, Michael Voßbeck, Marko Scholze, Tristan Quaife, T. Luke Smallman, Susan C. Steele-Dunne, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Tim Green, Sönke Zaehle, Mika Aurela, Alexandre Bouvet, Emanuel Bueechi, Wouter Dorigo, Tarek S. El-Madany, Mirco Migliavacca, Marika Honkanen, Yann H. Kerr, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Arnaud Mialon, Tuuli Miinalainen, Gaétan Pique, Amanda Ojasalo, Shaun Quegan, Peter J. Rayner, Pablo Reyes-Muñoz, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Mike Schwank, Jochem Verrelst, Songyan Zhu, Dirk Schüttemeyer, and Matthias Drusch
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2137–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2137-2025, 2025
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When it comes to climate change, the land surface is where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those impacts across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us capture the changes that happen on our lands.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Liting Hu, Adrien Martinez, Marielle Saunois, Rona L. Thompson, Kushal Tibrewal, Wouter Peters, Brendan Byrne, Giacomo Grassi, Paul I. Palmer, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Xuekun Fang, Tengjiao Wang, Hanqin Tian, Katsumasa Tanaka, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin Poulter, Clément Albergel, Aki Tsuruta, Shamil Maksyutov, Rajesh Janardanan, Yosuke Niwa, Bo Zheng, Joël Thanwerdas, Dmitry Belikov, Arjo Segers, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1121–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025, 2025
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This study reconciles national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories with updated atmospheric inversion results to evaluate discrepancies for three principal GHG fluxes at the national level. Compared to our previous study, new satellite-based CO2 inversions were included and an updated mask of managed lands was used, improving agreement for Brazil and Canada. The proposed methodology can be regularly applied as a check to assess the gap between top-down inversions and bottom-up inventories.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
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The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Joël Thanwerdas, Antoine Berchet, Lionel Constantin, Aki Tsuruta, Michael Steiner, Friedemann Reum, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1505–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1505-2025, 2025
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The Community Inversion Framework (CIF) brings together methods for estimating greenhouse gas fluxes from atmospheric observations. The initial ensemble method implemented in CIF was found to be incomplete and could hardly be compared to other ensemble methods employed in the inversion community. In this paper, we present and evaluate a new implementation of the ensemble mode, building upon the initial developments.
Stuart K. Grange, Pascal Rubli, Andrea Fischer, Dominik Brunner, Christoph Hueglin, and Lukas Emmenegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2781–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2781-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2781-2025, 2025
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a very important atmospheric pollutant, and to better understand the gas's source and sink dynamics, a mid-cost sensor network hosting 26 sites was deployed in and around Zurich, Switzerland. The sensor measurement performance was quantified, and natural and anthropogenic CO2 emission sources were explored with a focus on what drives high CO2 levels. The observations will be used further by others to validate what is thought to be known about CO2 emissions in the region.
Maria K. Tenkanen, Aki Tsuruta, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Maarit Raivonen, Hermanni Aaltonen, and Tuula Aalto
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2181–2206, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2181-2025, 2025
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Accurate national methane (CH4) emission estimates are essential for tracking progress towards climate goals. This study compares estimates from Finland, which use different methods and scales, and shows how well a global model estimates emissions within a country. The bottom-up estimates vary a lot, but constraining them with atmospheric CH4 measurements brought the estimates closer together. We also highlight the importance of quantifying natural emissions alongside anthropogenic emissions.
Juliette Bernard, Elodie Salmon, Marielle Saunois, Shushi Peng, Penélope Serrano-Ortiz, Antoine Berchet, Palingamoorthy Gnanamoorthy, Joachim Jansen, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 863–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-863-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-863-2025, 2025
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Despite their importance, uncertainties remain in the evaluation of the drivers of temporal variability of methane emissions from wetlands on a global scale. Here, a simplified global model is developed, taking advantage of advances in remote-sensing data and in situ observations. The model reproduces the large spatial and temporal patterns of emissions, albeit with limitations in the tropics due to data scarcity. This model, while simple, can provide valuable insights into sensitivity analyses.
Hossein Maazallahi, Foteini Stavropoulou, Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Michael Steiner, Dominik Brunner, Mariano Mertens, Patrick Jöckel, Antoon Visschedijk, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Stijn Dellaert, Nataly Velandia Salinas, Stefan Schwietzke, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Sorin Ghemulet, Alexandru Pana, Magdalena Ardelean, Marius Corbu, Andreea Calcan, Stephen A. Conley, Mackenzie L. Smith, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, 2025
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This article presents insights from airborne in situ measurements collected during the ROmanian Methane Emissions from Oil and gas (ROMEO) campaign supported by two models. Results reveal Romania's oil and gas methane emissions were significantly under-reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2019. A large underestimation was also found in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) v7.0 for the study domain in the same year.
Pieter Rijsdijk, Henk Eskes, Arlene Dingemans, K. Folkert Boersma, Takashi Sekiya, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, and Sander Houweling
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-483-2025, 2025
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Clustering high-resolution satellite observations into superobservations improves model validation and data assimilation applications. In our paper, we derive quantitative uncertainties for satellite NO2 column observations based on knowledge of the retrievals, including a detailed analysis of spatial error correlations and representativity errors. The superobservations and uncertainty estimates are tested in a global chemical data assimilation system and are found to improve the forecasts.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Michał Gałkowski, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Santiago Botía, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 639–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-639-2025, 2025
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CO2 mole fractions simulated over a global set of stations showed an overestimation of CO2 if the diurnal cycle is missing in biogenic fluxes. This leads to biases in the estimated fluxes derived from the regional-scale inversions. Interannual variability of estimated biogenic fluxes is also affected by the exclusion of the CO2 diurnal cycle. The findings point to the importance of including the diurnal variations of CO2 in the biogenic fluxes used as priors in global and regional inversions.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
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Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions, and upscaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Diego Santaren, Janne Hakkarainen, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Erik Koene, Frédéric Chevallier, Iolanda Ialongo, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Janne Nurmela, Johanna Tamminen, Laia Amorós, Dominik Brunner, and Grégoire Broquet
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 211–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-211-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-211-2025, 2025
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This study evaluates data-driven inversion methods for estimating CO2 emissions from local sources, such as power plants and cities, using meteorological data and XCO2 and NO2 satellite images rather than atmospheric transport modeling. We assess and compare the performance of five different methods using simulations of 1 year of satellite images, taken from the upcoming Copernicus CO2 Monitoring Mission, covering 15 power plants and the city of Berlin, Germany.
Carlos Gómez-Ortiz, Guillaume Monteil, Sourish Basu, and Marko Scholze
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 397–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-397-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-397-2025, 2025
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In this paper, we test new implementations of our inverse modeling tool to estimate the weekly and regional CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Europe. We use synthetic atmospheric observations of CO2 and radiocarbon (14CO2) to trace emissions to their sources, while separating the natural and fossil CO2. Our tool accurately estimates fossil CO2 emissions in densely monitored regions like western/central Europe. This approach aids in developing strategies for reducing CO2 emissions.
Vilna Tyystjärvi, Tiina Markkanen, Leif Backman, Maarit Raivonen, Antti Leppänen, Xuefei Li, Paavo Ojanen, Kari Minkkinen, Roosa Hautala, Mikko Peltoniemi, Jani Anttila, Raija Laiho, Annalea Lohila, Raisa Mäkipää, and Tuula Aalto
Biogeosciences, 21, 5745–5771, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5745-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5745-2024, 2024
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Drainage of boreal peatlands strongly influences soil methane fluxes, with important implications for climatic impacts. Here we simulate methane fluxes in forestry-drained and restored peatlands during the 21st century. We found that restoration turned peatlands into a source of methane, but the magnitude varied regionally. In forests, changes in the water table level influenced methane fluxes, and in general, the sink was weaker under rotational forestry compared to continuous cover forestry.
Michael Steiner, Luca Cantarello, Stephan Henne, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12447–12463, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12447-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12447-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric greenhouse gas inversions have great potential to independently check reported bottom-up emissions; however they are subject to large uncertainties. It is paramount to address and reduce the largest source of uncertainty, which stems from the representation of atmospheric transport in the models. In this study, we show that the use of a temporally varying flow-dependent atmospheric transport uncertainty can enhance the accuracy of emission estimation in an idealized experiment.
Martin Vojta, Andreas Plach, Saurabh Annadate, Sunyoung Park, Gawon Lee, Pallav Purohit, Florian Lindl, Xin Lan, Jens Mühle, Rona L. Thompson, and Andreas Stohl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12465–12493, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12465-2024, 2024
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We constrain the global emissions of the very potent greenhouse gas sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) between 2005 and 2021. We show that SF6 emissions are decreasing in the USA and in the EU, while they are substantially growing in China, leading overall to an increasing global emission trend. The national reports for the USA, EU, and China all underestimated their SF6 emissions. However, stringent mitigation measures can successfully reduce SF6 emissions, as can be seen in the EU emission trend.
Outi Kinnunen, Leif Backman, Juha Aalto, Tuula Aalto, and Tiina Markkanen
Biogeosciences, 21, 4739–4763, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4739-2024, 2024
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Climate change is expected to increase the risk of forest fires. Ecosystem process model simulations are used to project changes in fire occurrence in Fennoscandia under six climate projections. The findings suggest a longer fire season, more fires, and an increase in burnt area towards the end of the century.
Lucie Bakels, Daria Tatsii, Anne Tipka, Rona Thompson, Marina Dütsch, Michael Blaschek, Petra Seibert, Katharina Baier, Silvia Bucci, Massimo Cassiani, Sabine Eckhardt, Christine Groot Zwaaftink, Stephan Henne, Pirmin Kaufmann, Vincent Lechner, Christian Maurer, Marie D. Mulder, Ignacio Pisso, Andreas Plach, Rakesh Subramanian, Martin Vojta, and Andreas Stohl
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7595–7627, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7595-2024, 2024
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Computer models are essential for improving our understanding of how gases and particles move in the atmosphere. We present an update of the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART. FLEXPART 11 is more accurate due to a reduced number of interpolations and a new scheme for wet deposition. It can simulate non-spherical aerosols and includes linear chemical reactions. It is parallelised using OpenMP and includes new user options. A new user manual details how to use FLEXPART 11.
David Ho, Michał Gałkowski, Friedemann Reum, Santiago Botía, Julia Marshall, Kai Uwe Totsche, and Christoph Gerbig
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7401–7422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7401-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric model users often overlook the impact of the land–atmosphere interaction. This study accessed various setups of WRF-GHG simulations that ensure consistency between the model and driving reanalysis fields. We found that a combination of nudging and frequent re-initialization allows certain improvement by constraining the soil moisture fields and, through its impact on atmospheric mixing, improves atmospheric transport.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Richard Engelen, Sander Houweling, Dominik Brunner, Aki Tsuruta, Bradley Matthews, Prabir K. Patra, Dmitry Belikov, Rona L. Thompson, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wenxin Zhang, Arjo J. Segers, Giuseppe Etiope, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Philippe Peylin, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Robbie M. Andrew, David Bastviken, Antoine Berchet, Grégoire Broquet, Giulia Conchedda, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Johannes Gütschow, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Ronny Lauerwald, Tiina Markkanen, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Isabelle Pison, Pierre Regnier, Espen Solum, Marko Scholze, Maria Tenkanen, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, and John R. Worden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 4325–4350, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4325-2024, 2024
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This study provides an overview of data availability from observation- and inventory-based CH4 emission estimates. It systematically compares them and provides recommendations for robust comparisons, aiming to steadily engage more parties in using observational methods to complement their UNFCCC submissions. Anticipating improvements in atmospheric modelling and observations, future developments need to resolve knowledge gaps in both approaches and to better quantify remaining uncertainty.
Henk Eskes, Athanasios Tsikerdekis, Melanie Ades, Mihai Alexe, Anna Carlin Benedictow, Yasmine Bennouna, Lewis Blake, Idir Bouarar, Simon Chabrillat, Richard Engelen, Quentin Errera, Johannes Flemming, Sebastien Garrigues, Jan Griesfeller, Vincent Huijnen, Luka Ilić, Antje Inness, John Kapsomenakis, Zak Kipling, Bavo Langerock, Augustin Mortier, Mark Parrington, Isabelle Pison, Mikko Pitkänen, Samuel Remy, Andreas Richter, Anja Schoenhardt, Michael Schulz, Valerie Thouret, Thorsten Warneke, Christos Zerefos, and Vincent-Henri Peuch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9475–9514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9475-2024, 2024
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The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides global analyses and forecasts of aerosols and trace gases in the atmosphere. On 27 June 2023 a major upgrade, Cy48R1, became operational. Comparisons with in situ, surface remote sensing, aircraft, and balloon and satellite observations show that the new CAMS system is a significant improvement. The results quantify the skill of CAMS to forecast impactful events, such as wildfires, dust storms and air pollution peaks.
Dieu Anh Tran, Christoph Gerbig, Christian Rödenbeck, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8413–8440, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8413-2024, 2024
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The analysis of the atmospheric CO2 record from the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO) in central Siberia shows significant increases in the length and amplitude of the CO2 uptake and release in the 2010–2021 period. The trend shows a stronger increase in carbon release amplitude compared to the uptake, suggesting that, despite enhanced growing season uptake, during this period climate warming did not elevate the annual net CO2 uptake as cold-season respirations also responded to the warming.
Robin Plauchu, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Grégoire Broquet, Isabelle Pison, Antoine Berchet, Elise Potier, Gaëlle Dufour, Adriana Coman, Dilek Savas, Guillaume Siour, and Henk Eskes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8139–8163, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8139-2024, 2024
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This study uses the Community Inversion Framework and CHIMERE model to assess the potential of TROPOMI-S5P PAL NO2 tropospheric column data to estimate NOx emissions in France (2019–2021). Results show a 3 % decrease in average emissions compared to the 2016 CAMS-REG/INS, lower than the 14 % decrease from CITEPA. The study highlights challenges in capturing emission anomalies due to limited data coverage and error levels but shows promise for local inventory improvements.
Fabian Maier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ingeborg Levin, Christoph Gerbig, Maksym Gachkivskyi, and Samuel Hammer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8183–8203, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8183-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8183-2024, 2024
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We investigate the usage of discrete radiocarbon (14C)-based fossil fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO2) concentration estimates vs. continuous carbon monoxide (CO)-based ffCO2 estimates to evaluate the seasonal cycle of ffCO2 emissions in an urban region with an inverse modeling framework. We find that the CO-based ffCO2 estimates allow us to reconstruct robust seasonal cycles, which show the distinct COVID-19 drawdown in 2020 and can be used to validate emission inventories.
Sandro Meier, Erik F. M. Koene, Maarten Krol, Dominik Brunner, Alexander Damm, and Gerrit Kuhlmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7667–7686, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7667-2024, 2024
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Nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) are important air pollutants. This study addresses the challenge of accurately estimating NOx emissions from NO2 satellite observations. We develop a realistic model to convert NO2 to NOx by using simulated plumes from various power plants. We apply the model to satellite NO2 observations, significantly reducing biases in estimated NOx emissions. The study highlights the potential for a consistent, high-resolution estimation of NOx emissions using satellite data.
Haklim Choi, Alison L. Redington, Hyeri Park, Jooil Kim, Rona L. Thompson, Jens Mühle, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Ray F. Weiss, Alistair J. Manning, and Sunyoung Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7309–7330, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7309-2024, 2024
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We analyzed with an inversion model the atmospheric abundance of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases, from 2008 to 2020 at Gosan station in South Korea and revealed a significant increase in emissions, especially from eastern China and Japan. This increase contradicts reported data, underscoring the need for accurate monitoring and reporting. Our findings are crucial for understanding and managing global HFCs emissions, highlighting the importance of efforts to reduce HFCs.
Gerrit Kuhlmann, Erik Koene, Sandro Meier, Diego Santaren, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Janne Hakkarainen, Janne Nurmela, Laia Amorós, Johanna Tamminen, and Dominik Brunner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4773–4789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4773-2024, 2024
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We present a Python software library for data-driven emission quantification (ddeq). It can be used to determine the emissions of hot spots (cities, power plants and industry) from remote sensing images using different methods. ddeq can be extended for new datasets and methods, providing a powerful community tool for users and developers. The application of the methods is shown using Jupyter notebooks included in the library.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2543–2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 273 times more potent than carbon dioxide, have increased by 25 % since the preindustrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate has primarily been due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. Observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions.
Sophie Wittig, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Marielle Saunois, and Jean-Daniel Paris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 6359–6373, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-6359-2024, 2024
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The aim of this work is to analyse how accurately a methane bomb event could be detected with the current and a hypothetically extended stationary observation network in the Arctic. For this, we incorporate synthetically modelled possible future CH4 concentrations based on plausible emission scenarios into an inverse modelling framework. We analyse how well the increase is detected in different Arctic regions and evaluate the impact of additional observation sites in this respect.
Vishnu Thilakan, Dhanyalekshmi Pillai, Jithin Sukumaran, Christoph Gerbig, Haseeb Hakkim, Vinayak Sinha, Yukio Terao, Manish Naja, and Monish Vijay Deshpande
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5315–5335, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5315-2024, 2024
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This study investigates the usability of CO2 mixing ratio observations over India to infer regional carbon sources and sinks. We demonstrate that a high-resolution modelling system can represent the observed CO2 variations reasonably well by improving the transport and flux variations at a fine scale. Future carbon data assimilation systems can thus benefit from these recently available CO2 observations when fine-scale variations are adequately represented in the models.
Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Gregoire Broquet, Elise Potier, Robin Plauchu, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Hugo Denier van der Gon, and Stijn Dellaert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4635–4649, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4635-2024, 2024
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We have estimated the carbon monixide (CO) European emissions from satellite observations of the MOPITT instrument at the relatively high resolution of 0.5° for a period of over 10 years from 2011 to 2021. The analysis of the inversion results reveals the challenges associated with the inversion of CO emissions at the regional scale over Europe.
Jalisha T. Kallingal, Johan Lindström, Paul A. Miller, Janne Rinne, Maarit Raivonen, and Marko Scholze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2299–2324, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2299-2024, 2024
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By unlocking the mysteries of CH4 emissions from wetlands, our work improved the accuracy of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model using Bayesian statistics. Via assimilation of long-term real data from a wetland, we significantly enhanced CH4 emission predictions. This advancement helps us better understand wetland contributions to atmospheric CH4, which are crucial for addressing climate change. Our method offers a promising tool for refining global climate models and guiding conservation efforts
André R. Brodtkorb, Anna Benedictow, Heiko Klein, Arve Kylling, Agnes Nyiri, Alvaro Valdebenito, Espen Sollum, and Nina Kristiansen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1957–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1957-2024, 2024
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It is vital to know the extent and concentration of volcanic ash in the atmosphere during a volcanic eruption. Whilst satellite imagery may give an estimate of the ash right now (assuming no cloud coverage), we also need to know where it will be in the coming hours. This paper presents a method for estimating parameters for a volcanic eruption based on satellite observations of ash in the atmosphere. The software package is open source and applicable to similar inversion scenarios.
Michael Steiner, Wouter Peters, Ingrid Luijkx, Stephan Henne, Huilin Chen, Samuel Hammer, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2759–2782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2759-2024, 2024
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The Paris Agreement increased interest in estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of individual countries, but top-down emission estimation is not yet considered policy-relevant. It is therefore paramount to reduce large errors and to build systems that are based on the newest atmospheric transport models. In this study, we present the first application of ICON-ART in the inverse modeling of GHG fluxes with an ensemble Kalman filter and present our results for European CH4 emissions.
Jalisha Theanutti Kallingal, Marko Scholze, Paul Anthony Miller, Johan Lindström, Janne Rinne, Mika Aurela, Patrik Vestin, and Per Weslien
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-373, 2024
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Our study employs an Adaptive MCMC algorithm (GRaB-AM) to constrain process parameters in the wetlands emission module of the LPJ-GUESS model, using CH4 EC flux observations from 14 diverse wetlands. We aim to derive a single set of parameters capable of representing the diversity of northern wetlands. By reducing uncertainties in model parameters and improving simulation accuracy, our research contributes to more reliable projections of future wetland CH4 emissions and their climate impact.
Robert Hanfland, Dominik Brunner, Christiane Voigt, Alina Fiehn, Anke Roiger, and Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2511–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2511-2024, 2024
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To show that the three-dimensional dispersion of plumes simulated by the Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model within the planetary boundary layer agrees with real plumes, we identify the most important input parameters and analyse the turbulence properties of five different turbulence models in very unstable stratification conditions using their deviation from the well-mixed state. Simulations show that one model agrees slightly better in unstable stratification conditions.
Joël Thanwerdas, Marielle Saunois, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, and Philippe Bousquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2129–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2129-2024, 2024
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We investigate the causes of the renewed growth of atmospheric methane (CH4) after 2007 using inverse modeling. We use the additional information provided by observations of CH4 isotopic compositions to better differentiate between the emission categories. Accounting for the large uncertainties in source signatures, our results suggest that the post-2007 increase in atmospheric CH4 was caused by similar increases in emissions from (1) fossil fuels and (2) agriculture and waste.
Rona L. Thompson, Stephen A. Montzka, Martin K. Vollmer, Jgor Arduini, Molly Crotwell, Paul B. Krummel, Chris Lunder, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Isaac Vimont, Hsiang Wang, Ray F. Weiss, and Dickon Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1415–1427, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1415-2024, 2024
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The hydroxyl radical determines the atmospheric lifetimes of numerous species including methane. Since OH is very short-lived, it is not possible to directly measure its concentration on scales relevant for understanding its effect on other species. Here, OH is inferred by looking at changes in hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). We find that OH levels have been fairly stable over our study period (2004 to 2021), suggesting that OH is not the main driver of the recent increase in atmospheric methane.
Christian Rödenbeck, Karina E. Adcock, Markus Eritt, Maksym Gachkivskyi, Christoph Gerbig, Samuel Hammer, Armin Jordan, Ralph F. Keeling, Ingeborg Levin, Fabian Maier, Andrew C. Manning, Heiko Moossen, Saqr Munassar, Penelope A. Pickers, Michael Rothe, Yasunori Tohjima, and Sönke Zaehle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15767–15782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15767-2023, 2023
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The carbon dioxide content of the Earth atmosphere is increasing due to human emissions from burning of fossil fuels, causing global climate change. The strength of the fossil-fuel emissions is estimated by inventories based on energy data, but independent validation of these inventories has been recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we investigate the potential to validate inventories based on measurements of small changes in the atmospheric oxygen content.
Alina Fiehn, Maximilian Eckl, Julian Kostinek, Michał Gałkowski, Christoph Gerbig, Michael Rothe, Thomas Röckmann, Malika Menoud, Hossein Maazallahi, Martina Schmidt, Piotr Korbeń, Jarosław Neçki, Mila Stanisavljević, Justyna Swolkień, Andreas Fix, and Anke Roiger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15749–15765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15749-2023, 2023
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During the CoMet mission in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB) ground-based and airborne air samples were taken and analyzed for the isotopic composition of CH4 to derive the mean signature of the USCB and source signatures of individual coal mines. Using δ2H signatures, the biogenic emissions from the USCB account for 15 %–50 % of total emissions, which is underestimated in common emission inventories. This demonstrates the importance of δ2H-CH4 observations for methane source apportionment.
Xinxu Zhao, Jia Chen, Julia Marshall, Michal Gałkowski, Stephan Hachinger, Florian Dietrich, Ankit Shekhar, Johannes Gensheimer, Adrian Wenzel, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14325–14347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14325-2023, 2023
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We develop a modeling framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a high spatial resolution (up to 400 m) to simulate atmospheric transport of greenhouse gases and interpret column observations. Output is validated against weather stations and column measurements in August 2018. The differential column method is applied, aided by air-mass transport tracing with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model, also for an exploratory measurement interpretation.
Ioannis Katharopoulos, Dominique Rust, Martin K. Vollmer, Dominik Brunner, Stefan Reimann, Simon J. O'Doherty, Dickon Young, Kieran M. Stanley, Tanja Schuck, Jgor Arduini, Lukas Emmenegger, and Stephan Henne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14159–14186, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14159-2023, 2023
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The effectiveness of climate change mitigation needs to be scrutinized by monitoring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Countries report their emissions to the UN in a bottom-up manner. By combining atmospheric observations and transport models someone can independently validate emission estimates in a top-down fashion. We report Swiss emissions of synthetic GHGs based on kilometer-scale transport and inverse modeling, highlighting the role of appropriate resolution in complex terrain.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
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Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Foteini Stavropoulou, Katarina Vinković, Bert Kers, Marcel de Vries, Steven van Heuven, Piotr Korbeń, Martina Schmidt, Julia Wietzel, Pawel Jagoda, Jaroslav M. Necki, Jakub Bartyzel, Hossein Maazallahi, Malika Menoud, Carina van der Veen, Sylvia Walter, Béla Tuzson, Jonas Ravelid, Randulph Paulo Morales, Lukas Emmenegger, Dominik Brunner, Michael Steiner, Arjan Hensen, Ilona Velzeboer, Pim van den Bulk, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Antonio Delre, Maklawe Essonanawe Edjabou, Charlotte Scheutz, Marius Corbu, Sebastian Iancu, Denisa Moaca, Alin Scarlat, Alexandru Tudor, Ioana Vizireanu, Andreea Calcan, Magdalena Ardelean, Sorin Ghemulet, Alexandru Pana, Aurel Constantinescu, Lucian Cusa, Alexandru Nica, Calin Baciu, Cristian Pop, Andrei Radovici, Alexandru Mereuta, Horatiu Stefanie, Alexandru Dandocsi, Bas Hermans, Stefan Schwietzke, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Huilin Chen, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10399–10412, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10399-2023, 2023
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In this study, we quantify CH4 emissions from onshore oil production sites in Romania at source and facility level using a combination of ground- and drone-based measurement techniques. We show that the total CH4 emissions in our studied areas are much higher than the emissions reported to UNFCCC, and up to three-quarters of the detected emissions are related to operational venting. Our results suggest that oil and gas production infrastructure in Romania holds a massive mitigation potential.
Berend J. Schuit, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Pieter Bijl, Gourav Mahapatra, Anne-Wil van den Berg, Sudhanshu Pandey, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Sander Houweling, Daniel J. Varon, Jason McKeever, Dylan Jervis, Marianne Girard, Itziar Irakulis-Loitxate, Javier Gorroño, Luis Guanter, Daniel H. Cusworth, and Ilse Aben
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9071–9098, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9071-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9071-2023, 2023
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Using two machine learning models, which were trained on TROPOMI methane satellite data, we detect 2974 methane plumes, so-called super-emitters, in 2021. We detect methane emissions globally related to urban areas or landfills, coal mining, and oil and gas production. Using our monitoring system, we identify 94 regions with frequent emissions. For 12 locations, we target high-resolution satellite instruments to enlarge and identify the exact infrastructure responsible for the emissions.
Hyeri Park, Jooil Kim, Haklim Choi, Sohyeon Geum, Yeaseul Kim, Rona L. Thompson, Jens Mühle, Peter K. Salameh, Christina M. Harth, Kieran M. Stanley, Simon O'Doherty, Paul J. Fraser, Peter G. Simmonds, Paul B. Krummel, Ray F. Weiss, Ronald G. Prinn, and Sunyoung Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9401–9411, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9401-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9401-2023, 2023
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Based on atmospheric HFC-23 observations, the first estimate of post-CDM HFC-23 emissions in eastern Asia for 2008–2019 shows that these emissions contribute significantly to the global emissions rise. The observation-derived emissions were much larger than the bottom-up estimates expected to approach zero after 2015 due to national abatement activities. These discrepancies could be attributed to unsuccessful factory-level HFC-23 abatement and inaccurate quantification of emission reductions.
Sophie Wittig, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Marielle Saunois, Joël Thanwerdas, Adrien Martinez, Jean-Daniel Paris, Toshinobu Machida, Motoki Sasakawa, Douglas E. J. Worthy, Xin Lan, Rona L. Thompson, Espen Sollum, and Mikhail Arshinov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6457–6485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6457-2023, 2023
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Here, an inverse modelling approach is applied to estimate CH4 sources and sinks in the Arctic from 2008 to 2019. We study the magnitude, seasonal patterns and trends from different sources during recent years. We also assess how the current observation network helps to constrain fluxes. We find that constraints are only significant for North America and, to a lesser extent, West Siberia, where the observation network is relatively dense. We find no clear trend over the period of inversion.
Aparnna Ravi, Dhanyalekshmi Pillai, Christoph Gerbig, Stephen Sitch, Sönke Zaehle, Vishnu Thilakan, and Chandra Shekhar Jha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-817, 2023
Preprint archived
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We derive high-resolution terrestrial CO2 fluxes over India from 2012 to 2020. This is achieved by utilizing satellite-based vegetation indices and meteorological data in a data-driven biospheric model. The model simulations are improved by incorporating soil variables and SIF retrievals from satellite instruments and relate them to ecosystem productivity across different biomes. The derived flux products better explain the flux variability compared to other existing model estimates.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
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This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Brendan Byrne, David F. Baker, Sourish Basu, Michael Bertolacci, Kevin W. Bowman, Dustin Carroll, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Noel Cressie, David Crisp, Sean Crowell, Feng Deng, Zhu Deng, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Manvendra K. Dubey, Sha Feng, Omaira E. García, David W. T. Griffith, Benedikt Herkommer, Lei Hu, Andrew R. Jacobson, Rajesh Janardanan, Sujong Jeong, Matthew S. Johnson, Dylan B. A. Jones, Rigel Kivi, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Shamil Maksyutov, John B. Miller, Scot M. Miller, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Tomohiro Oda, Christopher W. O'Dell, Young-Suk Oh, Hirofumi Ohyama, Prabir K. Patra, Hélène Peiro, Christof Petri, Sajeev Philip, David F. Pollard, Benjamin Poulter, Marine Remaud, Andrew Schuh, Mahesh K. Sha, Kei Shiomi, Kimberly Strong, Colm Sweeney, Yao Té, Hanqin Tian, Voltaire A. Velazco, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Thorsten Warneke, John R. Worden, Debra Wunch, Yuanzhi Yao, Jeongmin Yun, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 963–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, 2023
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Changes in the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems result in emissions and removals of CO2. These can be driven by anthropogenic activities (e.g., deforestation), natural processes (e.g., fires) or in response to rising CO2 (e.g., CO2 fertilization). This paper describes a dataset of CO2 emissions and removals derived from atmospheric CO2 observations. This pilot dataset informs current capabilities and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.
Saqr Munassar, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Christian Rödenbeck, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2813–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2813-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2813-2023, 2023
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Using different transport models results in large errors in optimized fluxes in the atmospheric inversions. Boundary conditions and inversion system configurations lead to a smaller but non-negligible impact. The findings highlight the importance to validate transport models for further developments but also to properly account for such errors in inverse modelling. This will help narrow the convergence of gas estimates reported in the scientific literature from different inversion frameworks.
Dominik Brunner, Gerrit Kuhlmann, Stephan Henne, Erik Koene, Bastian Kern, Sebastian Wolff, Christiane Voigt, Patrick Jöckel, Christoph Kiemle, Anke Roiger, Alina Fiehn, Sven Krautwurst, Konstantin Gerilowski, Heinrich Bovensmann, Jakob Borchardt, Michal Galkowski, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Marshall, Andrzej Klonecki, Pascal Prunet, Robert Hanfland, Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám, Andrzej Wyszogrodzki, and Andreas Fix
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2699–2728, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2699-2023, 2023
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We evaluated six atmospheric transport models for their capability to simulate the CO2 plumes from two of the largest power plants in Europe by comparing the models against aircraft observations collected during the CoMet (Carbon Dioxide and Methane Mission) campaign in 2018. The study analyzed how realistically such plumes can be simulated at different model resolutions and how well the planned European satellite mission CO2M will be able to quantify emissions from power plants.
Clément Narbaud, Jean-Daniel Paris, Sophie Wittig, Antoine Berchet, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Nédélec, Boris D. Belan, Mikhail Y. Arshinov, Sergei B. Belan, Denis Davydov, Alexander Fofonov, and Artem Kozlov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2293–2314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2293-2023, 2023
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We measured CH4 and CO2 from aircraft over the Russian Arctic. Analyzing our data with the Lagrangian model FLEXPART, we find a sharp east–west gradient in atmospheric composition. Western Siberia is influenced by strong wetland CH4 emissions, deep CO2 gradient from biospheric uptake, and long-range transport from Europe and North America. Eastern flights document less variability. Over the Arctic Ocean, we find a small influence from marine CH4 emissions compatible with reasonable inventories.
Rona L. Thompson and Ignacio Pisso
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 235–246, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-235-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-235-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric networks are used for monitoring air quality and greenhouse gases and can provide essential information about the sources and sinks. The design of the network, specifically where to place the observations, is a critical question in order to maximize the information provided while minimizing the cost. Here, a novel method of designing atmospheric networks is presented with two examples, one on monitoring sources of methane and the second on monitoring fossil fuel emissions of CO2.
Srijana Lama, Sander Houweling, K. Folkert Boersma, Ilse Aben, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, and Maarten C. Krol
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 16053–16071, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-16053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-16053-2022, 2022
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Hydroxyl radical (OH) is the important chemical species that determines the lifetime of some greenhouse gases and trace gases. OH plays a vital role in air pollution chemistry. OH has a short lifetime and is extremely difficult to measure directly. OH concentrations derived from the chemistry transport model (CTM) have uncertainties of >50 %. Therefore, in this study, OH is derived indirectly using satellite date in urban plumes.
Yao Gao, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Maarit Raivonen, Mika Aurela, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Elyn Humphreys, Annalea Lohila, Tingting Li, Tiina Markkanen, Olli Nevalainen, Mats B. Nilsson, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Aki Tsuruta, Huiyi Yang, and Tuula Aalto
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-229, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We coupled a process-based peatland CH4 emission model HIMMELI with a state-of-art land surface model JULES. The performance of the coupled model was evaluated at six northern wetland sites. The coupled model is considered to be more appropriate in simulating wetland CH4 emission. In order to improve the simulated CH4 emission, the model requires better representation of the peat soil carbon and hydrologic processes in JULES and the methane production and transportation processes in HIMMELI.
Joël Thanwerdas, Marielle Saunois, Isabelle Pison, Didier Hauglustaine, Antoine Berchet, Bianca Baier, Colm Sweeney, and Philippe Bousquet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15489–15508, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15489-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have been rising since 2007, resulting from an imbalance between CH4 sources and sinks. The CH4 budget is generally estimated through top-down approaches using CH4 and δ13C(CH4) observations as constraints. The oxidation by chlorine (Cl) contributes little to the total oxidation of CH4 but strongly influences δ13C(CH4). Here, we compare multiple recent Cl fields and quantify the influence of Cl concentrations on CH4, δ13C(CH4), and CH4 budget estimates.
Vishnu Thilakan, Dhanyalekshmi Pillai, Christoph Gerbig, Michal Galkowski, Aparnna Ravi, and Thara Anna Mathew
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15287–15312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15287-2022, 2022
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This paper demonstrates how we can use atmospheric observations to improve the CO2 flux estimates in India. This is achieved by improving the representation of terrain, mesoscale transport, and flux variations. We quantify the impact of the unresolved variations in the current models on optimally estimated fluxes via inverse modelling and quantify the associated flux uncertainty. We illustrate how a parameterization scheme captures this variability in the coarse models.
Martin Vojta, Andreas Plach, Rona L. Thompson, and Andreas Stohl
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8295–8323, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8295-2022, 2022
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In light of recent global warming, we aim to improve methods for modeling greenhouse gas emissions in order to support the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement. In this study, we investigate certain aspects of a Bayesian inversion method that uses computer simulations and atmospheric observations to improve estimates of greenhouse gas emissions. We explore method limitations, discuss problems, and suggest improvements.
Prabhakar Shrestha, Jana Mendrok, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14095–14117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14095-2022, 2022
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The study extends the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform with gas-phase chemistry aerosol dynamics and a radar forward operator to enable detailed studies of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions. This is demonstrated using a case study of a deep convective storm, which showed that the strong updraft in the convective core of the storm produced aerosol-tower-like features, which affected the size of the hydrometeors and the simulated polarimetric features (e.g., ZDR and KDP columns).
Peter Bergamaschi, Arjo Segers, Dominik Brunner, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Michel Ramonet, Tim Arnold, Tobias Biermann, Huilin Chen, Sebastien Conil, Marc Delmotte, Grant Forster, Arnoud Frumau, Dagmar Kubistin, Xin Lan, Markus Leuenberger, Matthias Lindauer, Morgan Lopez, Giovanni Manca, Jennifer Müller-Williams, Simon O'Doherty, Bert Scheeren, Martin Steinbacher, Pamela Trisolino, Gabriela Vítková, and Camille Yver Kwok
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 13243–13268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-13243-2022, 2022
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We present a novel high-resolution inverse modelling system, "FLEXVAR", and its application for the inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions in 2018. The new system combines a high spatial resolution of 7 km x 7 km with a variational data assimilation technique, which allows CH4 emissions to be optimized from individual model grid cells. The high resolution allows the observations to be better reproduced, while the derived emissions show overall good consistency with two existing models.
Elise Potier, Grégoire Broquet, Yilong Wang, Diego Santaren, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Julia Marshall, Philippe Ciais, François-Marie Bréon, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5261–5288, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5261-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric inversion at local–regional scales over Europe and pseudo-data assimilation are used to evaluate how CO2 and 14CO2 ground-based measurement networks could complement satellite CO2 imagers to monitor fossil fuel (FF) CO2 emissions. This combination significantly improves precision in the FF emission estimates in areas with a dense network but does not strongly support the separation of the FF from the biogenic signals or the spatio-temporal extrapolation of the satellite information.
Simone M. Pieber, Béla Tuzson, Stephan Henne, Ute Karstens, Christoph Gerbig, Frank-Thomas Koch, Dominik Brunner, Martin Steinbacher, and Lukas Emmenegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10721–10749, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10721-2022, 2022
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Understanding regional greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere is a prerequisite to mitigate climate change. In this study, we investigated the regional contributions of carbon dioxide (CO2) at the location of the high Alpine observatory Jungfraujoch (JFJ, Switzerland, 3580 m a.s.l.). To this purpose, we combined receptor-oriented atmospheric transport simulations for CO2 concentration in the period 2009–2017 with stable carbon isotope (δ13C–CO2) information.
Fabian Maier, Christoph Gerbig, Ingeborg Levin, Ingrid Super, Julia Marshall, and Samuel Hammer
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5391–5406, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5391-2022, 2022
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We show that the default representation of point source emissions in WRF–STILT leads to large overestimations when modelling fossil fuel CO2 concentrations for a 30 m high observation site during stable atmospheric conditions. We therefore introduce a novel point source modelling approach in WRF-STILT that takes into account their effective emission heights and results in a much better agreement with observations.
Joël Thanwerdas, Marielle Saunois, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Bruce H. Vaughn, Sylvia Englund Michel, and Philippe Bousquet
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4831–4851, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4831-2022, 2022
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Estimating CH4 sources by exploiting observations within an inverse modeling framework is a powerful approach. Here, a new system designed to assimilate δ13C(CH4) observations together with CH4 observations is presented. By optimizing both the emissions and associated source signatures of multiple emission categories, this new system can efficiently differentiate the co-located emission categories and provide estimates of CH4 sources that are consistent with isotopic data.
Saqr Munassar, Christian Rödenbeck, Frank-Thomas Koch, Kai U. Totsche, Michał Gałkowski, Sophia Walther, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 7875–7892, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-7875-2022, 2022
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The results obtained from ensembles of inversions over 13 years show the largest spread in the a posteriori fluxes over the station set ensemble. Using different prior fluxes in the inversions led to a smaller impact. Drought occurrences in 2018 and 2019 affected CO2 fluxes as seen in net ecosystem exchange estimates. Our study highlights the importance of expanding the atmospheric site network across Europe to better constrain CO2 fluxes in inverse modelling.
Sudhanshu Pandey, Sander Houweling, and Arjo Segers
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4555–4567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4555-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4555-2022, 2022
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Inversions are used to calculate methane emissions using atmospheric mole-fraction measurements. Multidecadal inversions are needed to extract information from the long measurement records of methane. However, multidecadal inversion computations can take months to finish. Here, we demonstrate an order of magnitude improvement in wall clock time for an iterative multidecadal inversion by physical parallelization of chemical transport model.
Carlos Alberti, Frank Hase, Matthias Frey, Darko Dubravica, Thomas Blumenstock, Angelika Dehn, Paolo Castracane, Gregor Surawicz, Roland Harig, Bianca C. Baier, Caroline Bès, Jianrong Bi, Hartmut Boesch, André Butz, Zhaonan Cai, Jia Chen, Sean M. Crowell, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Dragos Ene, Jonathan E. Franklin, Omaira García, David Griffith, Bruno Grouiez, Michel Grutter, Abdelhamid Hamdouni, Sander Houweling, Neil Humpage, Nicole Jacobs, Sujong Jeong, Lilian Joly, Nicholas B. Jones, Denis Jouglet, Rigel Kivi, Ralph Kleinschek, Morgan Lopez, Diogo J. Medeiros, Isamu Morino, Nasrin Mostafavipak, Astrid Müller, Hirofumi Ohyama, Paul I. Palmer, Mahesh Pathakoti, David F. Pollard, Uwe Raffalski, Michel Ramonet, Robbie Ramsay, Mahesh Kumar Sha, Kei Shiomi, William Simpson, Wolfgang Stremme, Youwen Sun, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Yao Té, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Voltaire A. Velazco, Felix Vogel, Masataka Watanabe, Chong Wei, Debra Wunch, Marcia Yamasoe, Lu Zhang, and Johannes Orphal
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 2433–2463, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2433-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2433-2022, 2022
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Space-borne greenhouse gas missions require ground-based validation networks capable of providing fiducial reference measurements. Here, considerable refinements of the calibration procedures for the COllaborative Carbon Column Observing Network (COCCON) are presented. Laboratory and solar side-by-side procedures for the characterization of the spectrometers have been refined and extended. Revised calibration factors for XCO2, XCO and XCH4 are provided, incorporating 47 new spectrometers.
Randulph Morales, Jonas Ravelid, Katarina Vinkovic, Piotr Korbeń, Béla Tuzson, Lukas Emmenegger, Huilin Chen, Martina Schmidt, Sebastian Humbel, and Dominik Brunner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 2177–2198, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-2177-2022, 2022
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Mapping trace gas emission plumes using in situ measurements from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is an emerging and attractive possibility to quantify emissions from localized sources. We performed an extensive controlled-release experiment to develop an optimal quantification method and to determine the related uncertainties under various environmental and sampling conditions. Our approach was successful in quantifying local methane sources from drone-based measurements.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Zitely A. Tzompa-Sosa, Marielle Saunois, Chunjing Qiu, Chang Tan, Taochun Sun, Piyu Ke, Yanan Cui, Katsumasa Tanaka, Xin Lin, Rona L. Thompson, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Atul K. Jain, Xiaoming Xu, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Paul I. Palmer, Thomas Lauvaux, Alexandre d'Aspremont, Clément Giron, Antoine Benoit, Benjamin Poulter, Jinfeng Chang, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Giacomo Grassi, Clément Albergel, Francesco N. Tubiello, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1639–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, 2022
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In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, we proposed a method for reconciling the results of global atmospheric inversions with data from UNFCCC national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, based on a new global harmonized database that we compiled from the UNFCCC NGHGIs and a comprehensive framework presented in this study to process the results of inversions, we compared their results of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Gerrit Kuhlmann, Ka Lok Chan, Sebastian Donner, Ying Zhu, Marc Schwaerzel, Steffen Dörner, Jia Chen, Andreas Hueni, Duc Hai Nguyen, Alexander Damm, Annette Schütt, Florian Dietrich, Dominik Brunner, Cheng Liu, Brigitte Buchmann, Thomas Wagner, and Mark Wenig
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1609–1629, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1609-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1609-2022, 2022
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Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is an air pollutant whose concentration often exceeds air quality guideline values, especially in urban areas. To map the spatial distribution of NO2 in Munich, we conducted the Munich NO2 Imaging Campaign (MuNIC), where NO2 was measured with stationary, mobile, and airborne in situ and remote sensing instruments. The campaign provides a unique dataset that has been used to compare the different instruments and to study the spatial variability of NO2 and its sources.
Yousef Albuhaisi, Ype van der Velde, and Sander Houweling
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-55, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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An important uncertainty in the modelling of methane emissions from natural wetlands is the wetland area. It is important to get the spatiotemporal covariance between the variables that drive methane emissions right for accurate quantification. Using high-resolution wetland and soil carbon maps, in combination with a simplified methane emission model that is coarsened in six steps from 0.005° to 1°, we find a strong relation between wetland emissions and the model resolution.
Marine Remaud, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabienne Maignan, Sauveur Belviso, Antoine Berchet, Alexandra Parouffe, Camille Abadie, Cédric Bacour, Sinikka Lennartz, and Philippe Peylin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2525–2552, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2525-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2525-2022, 2022
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Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has been recognized as a promising indicator of the plant gross primary production (GPP). Here, we assimilate both COS and CO2 measurements into an atmospheric transport model to obtain information on GPP, plant respiration and COS budget. A possible scenario for the period 2008–2019 leads to a global COS biospheric sink of 800 GgS yr−1 and higher oceanic emissions between 400 and 600 GgS yr−1.
Olli Nevalainen, Olli Niemitalo, Istem Fer, Antti Juntunen, Tuomas Mattila, Olli Koskela, Joni Kukkamäki, Layla Höckerstedt, Laura Mäkelä, Pieta Jarva, Laura Heimsch, Henriikka Vekuri, Liisa Kulmala, Åsa Stam, Otto Kuusela, Stephanie Gerin, Toni Viskari, Julius Vira, Jari Hyväluoma, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, Annalea Lohila, Tuomas Laurila, Jussi Heinonsalo, Tuula Aalto, Iivari Kunttu, and Jari Liski
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 11, 93–109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-93-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-11-93-2022, 2022
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Better monitoring of soil carbon sequestration is needed to understand the best carbon farming practices in different soils and climate conditions. We, the Field Observatory Network (FiON), have therefore established a methodology for monitoring and forecasting agricultural carbon sequestration by combining offline and near-real-time field measurements, weather data, satellite imagery, and modeling. To disseminate our work, we built a website called the Field Observatory (fieldobservatory.org).
Sven Krautwurst, Konstantin Gerilowski, Jakob Borchardt, Norman Wildmann, Michał Gałkowski, Justyna Swolkień, Julia Marshall, Alina Fiehn, Anke Roiger, Thomas Ruhtz, Christoph Gerbig, Jaroslaw Necki, John P. Burrows, Andreas Fix, and Heinrich Bovensmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17345–17371, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17345-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17345-2021, 2021
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Quantification of anthropogenic CH4 emissions remains challenging, but it is essential for near-term climate mitigation strategies. We use airborne remote sensing observations to assess bottom-up estimates of coal mining emissions from one of Europe's largest CH4 emission hot spots located in Poland. The analysis reveals that emissions from small groups of shafts can be disentangled, but caution is advised when comparing observations to commonly reported annual emissions.
Vilma Kangasaho, Aki Tsuruta, Leif Backman, Pyry Mäkinen, Sander Houweling, Arjo Segers, Maarten Krol, Ed Dlugokencky, Sylvia Michel, James White, and Tuula Aalto
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-843, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-843, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Understanding the composition of carbon isotopes can help to better understand the changes in methane budgets. This study investigates how methane sources affect the seasonal cycle of the methane carbon-13 isotope during 2000–2012 using an atmospheric transport model. We found that emissions from both anthropogenic and natural sources contribute. The findings raise a need to revise the magnitudes, proportion, and seasonal cycles of anthropogenic sources and northern wetland emissions.
Marc Schwaerzel, Dominik Brunner, Fabian Jakub, Claudia Emde, Brigitte Buchmann, Alexis Berne, and Gerrit Kuhlmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 6469–6482, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-6469-2021, 2021
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NO2 maps from airborne imaging remote sensing often appear much smoother than one would expect from high-resolution model simulations of NO2 over cities, despite the small ground-pixel size of the sensors. Our case study over Zurich, using the newly implemented building module of the MYSTIC radiative transfer solver, shows that the 3D effect can explain part of the smearing and that building shadows cause a noticeable underestimation and noise in the measured NO2 columns.
Malika Menoud, Carina van der Veen, Jaroslaw Necki, Jakub Bartyzel, Barbara Szénási, Mila Stanisavljević, Isabelle Pison, Philippe Bousquet, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13167–13185, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13167-2021, 2021
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Using measurements of methane isotopes in ambient air and a 3D atmospheric transport model, in Krakow, Poland, we mainly detected fossil-fuel-related sources, coming from coal mining in Silesia and from the use of natural gas in the city. Emission inventories report large emissions from coal mine activity in Silesia, which is in agreement with our measurements. However, methane sources in the urban area of Krakow related to the use of fossil fuels might be underestimated in the inventories.
Antoine Berchet, Espen Sollum, Rona L. Thompson, Isabelle Pison, Joël Thanwerdas, Grégoire Broquet, Frédéric Chevallier, Tuula Aalto, Adrien Berchet, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Richard Engelen, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Christoph Gerbig, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Stephan Henne, Sander Houweling, Ute Karstens, Werner L. Kutsch, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Guillaume Monteil, Paul I. Palmer, Jacob C. A. van Peet, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Elise Potier, Christian Rödenbeck, Marielle Saunois, Marko Scholze, Aki Tsuruta, and Yuanhong Zhao
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5331–5354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5331-2021, 2021
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We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers.
The ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool. We describe the main structure and functionalities and demonstrate it in a simple academic case.
Jean-Daniel Paris, Aurélie Riandet, Efstratios Bourtsoukidis, Marc Delmotte, Antoine Berchet, Jonathan Williams, Lisa Ernle, Ivan Tadic, Hartwig Harder, and Jos Lelieveld
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12443–12462, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12443-2021, 2021
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We measured atmospheric methane and CO2 by ship in the Middle East. We probe the origin of methane with a combination of light alkane measurements and modeling. We find strong influence from nearby oil and gas production over the Arabian Gulf. Comparing our data to inventories indicates that inventories overestimate sources from the upstream gas industry but underestimate emissions from oil extraction and processing. The Red Sea was under a complex mixture of sources due to human activity.
Michael Weimer, Jennifer Buchmüller, Lars Hoffmann, Ole Kirner, Beiping Luo, Roland Ruhnke, Michael Steiner, Ines Tritscher, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9515–9543, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9515-2021, 2021
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We show that we are able to directly simulate polar stratospheric clouds formed locally in a mountain wave and represent their effect on the ozone chemistry with the global atmospheric chemistry model ICON-ART. Thus, we show the first simulations that close the gap between directly resolved mountain-wave-induced polar stratospheric clouds and their representation at coarse global resolutions.
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Short summary
This paper describes a detailed study on CH4 European emissions, using different methodologies (9 total inverse models). The study spans over 15 years and provides detailed information on European CH4 emission trends and seasonality, using in-situ data, including Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) network. Our results highlight the importance of improving details in the inversion setup, such as the treatment of lateral boundary conditions to narrow the uncertainty ranges further.
This paper describes a detailed study on CH4 European emissions, using different methodologies...
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