Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2391-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2391-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The enhanced future Flows and Groundwater dataset: development and evaluation of nationally consistent hydrological projections based on UKCP18
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Maynooth
University, Maynooth, Ireland
British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, B15 2TT, UK
Matthew Ascott
British Geological Survey, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh
Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Victoria A. Bell
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Thomas Chitson
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Steven Cole
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Christian Counsell
HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Crowmarsh Gifford, OX10 8BA, UK
Mason Durant
HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Crowmarsh Gifford, OX10 8BA, UK
Christopher R. Jackson
British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK
Alison L. Kay
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Rosanna A. Lane
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Majdi Mansour
British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK
Robert Moore
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Simon Parry
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Alison C. Rudd
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Michael Simpson
HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Crowmarsh Gifford, OX10 8BA, UK
Katie Facer-Childs
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Stephen Turner
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
John R. Wallbank
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Steven Wells
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
Amy Wilcox
HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Crowmarsh Gifford, OX10 8BA, UK
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The influence of climate change on drought in the UK has gained attention recently. However, a probabilistic assessment of temperature’s nonstationary influences on hydrological drought characteristics, which could provide key insights into future risks and uncertainties, has not been conducted. This study evaluates changes across seasons and warming scenarios, finding that rare droughts may become more severe, while frequent summer droughts are shorter but more intense.
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This study developed a generic machine learning model to forecast drought impacts, with the UK as the main focus. The same model was successfully validated in Germany, showing potential for use in other regions. It captured local patterns of past drought impacts, matching observed events. Using weather and soil data, the model supports early warning and drought risk management. Results are promising, though testing in more climates and conditions would strengthen confidence.
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The UK Hydrological Outlook river flow forecasting system recently implemented the Historic Weather Analogues method. The method improves winter river flow forecast skill across the UK, especially in upland, fast-responding catchments with low catchment storage. Forecast skill is highest in winter due to accurate prediction of atmospheric circulation patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Ensemble Streamflow prediction method remains a robust benchmark, especially for other seasons.
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Our research compares two techniques, bias correction (BC) and data assimilation (DA), for improving river flow forecasts across 316 UK catchments. BC, which corrects errors after simulation, showed broad improvements, while DA, adjusting model states before forecast, excelled under specific conditions like snowmelt and high baseflows. Each method's unique strengths suit different scenarios. These insights can enhance forecasting systems, offering reliable and user-friendly hydrological predictions.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1295–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, 2025
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The study provides a detailed characterisation of flash drought in the UK for 1969–2021. The spatio-temporal distribution and trends of flash droughts are highly variable, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. In the UK, flash drought development responds primarily to precipitation variability, while the atmospheric evaporative demand plays a secondary role. We also found that the North Atlantic Oscillation is the main circulation pattern controlling flash drought development.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-293, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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This extended review asks whether hydrological (river flow) droughts have become more severe over time in the UK, based on literature review and original analyses. The UK is a good international exemplar, given the richness of available data. We find that there is little compelling evidence towards a trend towards worsening river flow droughts, at odds with future climate change projections. We outline reasons for this discrepancy and make recommendations to guide researchers and policymakers.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
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Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
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Geosci. Commun., 7, 161–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024, 2024
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Climate change can often seem rather remote, especially when the discussion is about global averages which appear to have little relevance to local experiences. But those global changes are already affecting people, even if they do not fully realise it, and effective communication of this issue is critical. We use long observations and well-understood physical principles to visually highlight how global emissions influence local flood risk in one river basin in the UK.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
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We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
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Numerous indices exist for the description of hydrological drought, some are based on absolute thresholds of overall streamflows or water levels and some are based on relative anomalies with respect to the season. This article discusses paradigms and experiences with such index uses in drought monitoring and drought analysis to raise awareness of the different interpretations of drought severity.
Lizz Ultee, Finn Wimberly, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3965, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Runoff from glaciers can be an important water source in mountain regions. Global climate models used to understand future changes in the water cycle do not include glacier changes. We simulated glacier change in all available glacier models using information from global climate models as input. We found that for analysis of future drought, it is more important to understand the climate input than to use all available glacier models together.
Srinidhi Jha, Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4096, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
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The influence of climate change on drought in the UK has gained attention recently. However, a probabilistic assessment of temperature’s nonstationary influences on hydrological drought characteristics, which could provide key insights into future risks and uncertainties, has not been conducted. This study evaluates changes across seasons and warming scenarios, finding that rare droughts may become more severe, while frequent summer droughts are shorter but more intense.
Mark D. Rhodes-Smith, Victoria A. Bell, Nicky Stringer, Helen Baron, Helen Davies, and Jeff Knight
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2506, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
River flow forecasts up to three months ahead can allow early preparations for future floods and droughts. We test a new forecasting system using weather forecasts made by selecting historical weather patterns that match current conditions and running them through a simulation of Great Britain's rivers. Our tests show that this system performs particularly well in the winter and spring, in northern Scotland and in southern England. We now use this system to produce forecasts regularly.
Burak Bulut, Eugene Magee, Rachael Armitage, Opeyemi E. Adedipe, Maliko Tanguy, Lucy J. Barker, and Jamie Hannaford
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3176, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a generic machine learning model to forecast drought impacts, with the UK as the main focus. The same model was successfully validated in Germany, showing potential for use in other regions. It captured local patterns of past drought impacts, matching observed events. Using weather and soil data, the model supports early warning and drought risk management. Results are promising, though testing in more climates and conditions would strengthen confidence.
Wilson Chan, Katie Facer-Childs, Maliko Tanguy, Eugene Magee, Burak Bulut, Nicky Stringer, Jeff Knight, and Jamie Hannaford
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2369, 2025
Short summary
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The UK Hydrological Outlook river flow forecasting system recently implemented the Historic Weather Analogues method. The method improves winter river flow forecast skill across the UK, especially in upland, fast-responding catchments with low catchment storage. Forecast skill is highest in winter due to accurate prediction of atmospheric circulation patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Ensemble Streamflow prediction method remains a robust benchmark, especially for other seasons.
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
The Cryosphere, 19, 1491–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 30 km2 of initial glacier cover.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Amulya Chevuturi, Eugene Magee, Elizabeth Cooper, Robert H. B. Johnson, Katie Facer-Childs, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1587–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research compares two techniques, bias correction (BC) and data assimilation (DA), for improving river flow forecasts across 316 UK catchments. BC, which corrects errors after simulation, showed broad improvements, while DA, adjusting model states before forecast, excelled under specific conditions like snowmelt and high baseflows. Each method's unique strengths suit different scenarios. These insights can enhance forecasting systems, offering reliable and user-friendly hydrological predictions.
Iván Noguera, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1295–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides a detailed characterisation of flash drought in the UK for 1969–2021. The spatio-temporal distribution and trends of flash droughts are highly variable, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. In the UK, flash drought development responds primarily to precipitation variability, while the atmospheric evaporative demand plays a secondary role. We also found that the North Atlantic Oscillation is the main circulation pattern controlling flash drought development.
Jonathan D. Mackay, Nicholas E. Barrand, David M. Hannah, Emily Potter, Nilton Montoya, and Wouter Buytaert
The Cryosphere, 19, 685–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, 2025
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We combine two globally capable glacier evolution models to include processes that are typically neglected but thought to control tropical glacier retreat (e.g. sublimation). We apply the model to Peru's Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin. The model captures observed glacier mass changes,but struggles with surface albedo dynamics. Projections show glacier mass shrinking to 17 % or 6 % of 2000 levels by 2100 under moderate- and high-emission scenarios, respectively.
Rodrigo Aguayo, Fabien Maussion, Lilian Schuster, Marius Schaefer, Alexis Caro, Patrick Schmitt, Jonathan Mackay, Lizz Ultee, Jorge Leon-Muñoz, and Mauricio Aguayo
The Cryosphere, 18, 5383–5406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024, 2024
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Predicting how much water will come from glaciers in the future is a complex task, and there are many factors that make it uncertain. Using a glacier model, we explored 1920 scenarios for each glacier in the Patagonian Andes. We found that the choice of the historical climate data was the most important factor, while other factors such as different data sources, climate models and emission scenarios played a smaller role.
Jamie Hannaford, Stephen Turner, Amulya Chevuturi, Wilson Chan, Lucy J. Barker, Maliko Tanguy, Simon Parry, and Stuart Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-293, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This extended review asks whether hydrological (river flow) droughts have become more severe over time in the UK, based on literature review and original analyses. The UK is a good international exemplar, given the richness of available data. We find that there is little compelling evidence towards a trend towards worsening river flow droughts, at odds with future climate change projections. We outline reasons for this discrepancy and make recommendations to guide researchers and policymakers.
Saskia Salwey, Gemma Coxon, Francesca Pianosi, Rosanna Lane, Chris Hutton, Michael Bliss Singer, Hilary McMillan, and Jim Freer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4203–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, 2024
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Reservoirs are essential for water resource management and can significantly impact downstream flow. However, representing reservoirs in hydrological models can be challenging, particularly across large scales. We design a new and simple method for simulating river flow downstream of water supply reservoirs using only open-access data. We demonstrate the approach in 264 reservoir catchments across Great Britain, where we can significantly improve the simulation of reservoir-impacted flow.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Ed Hawkins, Nigel Arnell, Jamie Hannaford, and Rowan Sutton
Geosci. Commun., 7, 161–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change can often seem rather remote, especially when the discussion is about global averages which appear to have little relevance to local experiences. But those global changes are already affecting people, even if they do not fully realise it, and effective communication of this issue is critical. We use long observations and well-understood physical principles to visually highlight how global emissions influence local flood risk in one river basin in the UK.
Adam Griffin, Alison L. Kay, Paul Sayers, Victoria Bell, Elizabeth Stewart, and Sam Carr
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2635–2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024, 2024
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Widespread flooding is a major problem in the UK and is greatly affected by climate change and land-use change. To look at how widespread flooding changes in the future, climate model data (UKCP18) were used with a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) across the UK, and 14 400 events were identified between two time slices: 1980–2010 and 2050–2080. There was a strong increase in the number of winter events in the future time slice and in the peak return periods.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
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The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Emma L. Robinson, Matthew J. Brown, Alison L. Kay, Rosanna A. Lane, Rhian Chapman, Victoria A. Bell, and Eleanor M. Blyth
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4433–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4433-2023, 2023
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This work presents two new Penman–Monteith potential evaporation datasets for the UK, calculated with the same methodology applied to historical climate data (Hydro-PE HadUK-Grid) and an ensemble of future climate projections (Hydro-PE UKCP18 RCM). Both include an optional correction for evaporation of rain that lands on the surface of vegetation. The historical data are consistent with existing PE datasets, and the future projections include effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on vegetation.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Alison L. Kay, Victoria A. Bell, Helen N. Davies, Rosanna A. Lane, and Alison C. Rudd
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2533–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2533-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2533-2023, 2023
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Climate change will affect the water cycle, including river flows and soil moisture. We have used both observational data (1980–2011) and the latest UK climate projections (1980–2080) to drive a national-scale grid-based hydrological model. The data, covering Great Britain and Northern Ireland, suggest potential future decreases in summer flows, low flows, and summer/autumn soil moisture, and possible future increases in winter and high flows. Society must plan how to adapt to such impacts.
Louisa D. Oldham, Jim Freer, Gemma Coxon, Nicholas Howden, John P. Bloomfield, and Christopher Jackson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 761–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-761-2023, 2023
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Water can move between river catchments via the subsurface, termed intercatchment groundwater flow (IGF). We show how a perceptual model of IGF can be developed with relatively simple geological interpretation and data requirements. We find that IGF dynamics vary in space, correlated to the dominant underlying geology. We recommend that IGF
loss functionsmay be used in conceptual rainfall–runoff models but should be supported by perceptualisation of IGF processes and connectivities.
Rosanna A. Lane, Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, Jan Seibert, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5535–5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022, 2022
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This study modelled the impact of climate change on river high flows across Great Britain (GB). Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows along the west coast of GB by 2050–2075. In contrast, average flows decreased across GB. All flow projections contained large uncertainties; the climate projections were the largest source of uncertainty overall but hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in some regions.
Lizz Ultee, Sloan Coats, and Jonathan Mackay
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, 2022
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Global climate models suggest that droughts could worsen over the coming century. In mountain basins with glaciers, glacial runoff can ease droughts, but glaciers are retreating worldwide. We analyzed how one measure of drought conditions changes when accounting for glacial runoff that changes over time. Surprisingly, we found that glacial runoff can continue to buffer drought throughout the 21st century in most cases, even as the total amount of runoff declines.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Theodore G. Shepherd, Katie Facer-Childs, Geoff Darch, and Nigel W. Arnell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1755–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1755-2022, 2022
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We select the 2010–2012 UK drought and investigate an alternative unfolding of the drought from changes to its attributes. We created storylines of drier preconditions, alternative seasonal contributions, a third dry winter, and climate change. Storylines of the 2010–2012 drought show alternative situations that could have resulted in worse conditions than observed. Event-based storylines exploring plausible situations are used that may lead to high impacts and help stress test existing systems.
Gemma Coxon, Nans Addor, John P. Bloomfield, Jim Freer, Matt Fry, Jamie Hannaford, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Rosanna Lane, Melinda Lewis, Emma L. Robinson, Thorsten Wagener, and Ross Woods
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, 2020
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We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain. The dataset collates river flows, catchment attributes, and catchment boundaries for 671 catchments across Great Britain. We characterise the topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soils, hydrogeology, human influence, and discharge uncertainty of each catchment. The dataset is publicly available for the community to use in a wide range of environmental and modelling analyses.
Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, and Miaomiao Ma
Proc. IAHS, 383, 273–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-273-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-273-2020, 2020
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Drought monitoring and early warning are critical aspects of drought preparedness and can help mitigate impacts on society and the environment. We reviewed academic literature in England and Chinese on the topic of drought monitoring and early warning in China. The number of papers on this topic has increased substantially but the most recent advances have not been operationalised. We identify the methods that can be translated from the experimental to national, operational systems.
Miaomiao Ma, Juan Lv, Zhicheng Su, Jamie Hannaford, Hongquan Sun, Yanping Qu, Zikang Xing, Lucy Barker, and Yaxu Wang
Proc. IAHS, 383, 267–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-267-2020, 2020
Bentje Brauns, Daniela Cuba, John P. Bloomfield, David M. Hannah, Christopher Jackson, Ben P. Marchant, Benedikt Heudorfer, Anne F. Van Loon, Hélène Bessière, Bo Thunholm, and Gerhard Schubert
Proc. IAHS, 383, 297–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-297-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-297-2020, 2020
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In Europe, ca. 65% of drinking water is groundwater. Its replenishment depends on rainfall, but droughts may cause groundwater levels to fall below normal. These
groundwater droughtscan limit supply, making it crucial to understand their regional connection. The Groundwater Drought Initiative (GDI) assesses spatial patterns in historic—recent groundwater droughts across Europe for the first time. Using an example dataset, we describe the background to the GDI and its methodological approach.
Kerstin Stahl, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jamie Hannaford, Erik Tijdeman, Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Proc. IAHS, 383, 291–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-291-2020, 2020
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Numerous indices exist for the description of hydrological drought, some are based on absolute thresholds of overall streamflows or water levels and some are based on relative anomalies with respect to the season. This article discusses paradigms and experiences with such index uses in drought monitoring and drought analysis to raise awareness of the different interpretations of drought severity.
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Short summary
The eFLaG dataset is a nationally consistent set of projections of future climate change impacts on hydrology. eFLaG uses the latest available UK climate projections (UKCP18) run through a series of computer simulation models which enable us to produce future projections of river flows, groundwater levels and groundwater recharge. These simulations are designed for use by water resource planners and managers but could also be used for a wide range of other purposes.
The eFLaG dataset is a nationally consistent set of projections of future climate change impacts...
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