General comments:
1. This version has much more detail but content is often in unexpected sections. For example, some Results are in the Methods, some Discussion (limitations) is in the Methods. Overall, this manuscript needs heavy reorganization. The amount of material in unexpected places makes it hard to follow the manuscript. Numerous examples are below.
2. The use of the three FAO estimates is not introduced well and is applied inconsistently. Sometimes you use one, sometimes all three. I understand wanting to use a specific set of carbon pools for different purposes, but which version is used where and why is generally not explained. In some ways, it might be easier if you say in the methods that you calculated these three versions but stick with showing the results for just one of them, except for specific cases where you think another one is more appropriate. Furthermore, I don’t think you ever explain how these three versions relate to what is on FAOSTAT or in the FRA.
3. I appreciate the comparison with the Global Carbon Budget, but it still leaves much to be desired. At the very least, the specific components of the GCB that are being compared to in lines 494-498 need to be explicitly stated (Eluc, Sland, a component of Eluc, or something else). Even a sentence or two about differences in scope between the GCB and FAO would help. For example, do the GCB estimates you’re comparing to include peat emissions and other non-forest CO2 fluxes?
Specific comments:
1. Overall, this paper assumes that readers are familiar with FAO data and the FRA that may confuse or deter readers. I encourage the authors to try to lay out the relationship between country submissions to the FAO (and UNFCCC) and what the FAO team does with country data more thoroughly in the abstract, introduction, and methods.
a. The abstract should more clearly articulate the relationship between the FRA and the values presented in this paper. In general, the abstract would be clearer if it started with one sentence of background about the FRA or FAOSTAT.
b. For example, is it correct that countries submit forest area and carbon stock to the FAO (per line 71), but the FAO is the one that calculates emissions and removals (per line 70)? Please clarify which party is doing what.
c. What are the main differences in scope and objective between the FRA data and the NGHGIs?
2. “the FAO results indicated strong removals on forest land, ranging from -3.6 to -6.0 Gt CO2 yr-1—with lower and upper boundaries reflecting inclusion of stock change for living biomass only or for all pools. The forest removals were partially counterbalanced by emissions from net forest conversion of 2.8 to 3.8 Gt CO2 yr-1”: These are net removals and gross emissions, right? Can the difference between them be presented as -0.8 and -2.2 Gt CO2 yr-1? If so, why not present that range of net values in the abstract? Also, see above comment about how the three FAO estimates are not conveyed clearly. The range of values here (e.g., 2.8 to 3.8) appears to be purely due to the inclusion of different carbon pools. You could potentially present the results as X emissions from biomass, Y from litter and dead wood, and Z from soil, because that’s essentially what the range of values is providing.
3. Explain why you created your own dataset of country submissions to the UNFCCC rather than using the JRC LULUCF Data Hub (lines 93-100)? What is the advantage of creating a new dataset instead of using the existing, more comprehensive one from the Data Hub?
4. Much of the material in section 2.1.2 (Forest land area) should go in the results, e.g., similarity between FRA 2025 and FRA 2020 (with associated graph) and changes in Argentina’s data. Everything between Tables 2 and 3 should be in the results or discussion. (Also, more generally, is it correct that the correlation between forest area submissions to the UNFCCC and forest area submissions to FAO aren’t a concern of FAO carbon estimates specifically? This comparison is relevant to FAO in general, not just this paper.)
5. Similarly, much of the material in section 2.1.3 (Forest biomass and carbon stock change) should be in the results in a section that could be called something like “Comparison of FRA 2020 to FRA 2025”. What I would expect to see in section 2.1.3 is where the non-biomass data (litter, dead wood, and soil) came from this time, since you said that those other carbon pools are new to FRA 2025. This is covered in a later section but could at least be introduced here.
6. NFC and FL are introduced in Section 2.2 (Net forest emissions/removals estimation) but it seems like these categories should be covered in 2.1.2.
7. “We did not report estimates together with their uncertainty values. While each estimate carried in principle 50% uncertainty, we used the range of the three FAO models to provide a heuristic, practical if imperfect way to communicate uncertainty.” I understand you can’t do a formal uncertainty analysis, but the range between the 3 models isn’t any kind of uncertainty. It’s a range of estimates with different carbon pool scopes. It’s not really a sensitivity analysis, either, because you’re not changing some input or parameter. Please rethink how you’re communicating your three estimates.
8. To what do you attribute the difference between FAO and UNFCCC values for China? I know you can’t explore every country’s difference, but this is the largest of all differences in Table 8.
Technical corrections:
1. “The FAO net forest emissions/removals estimates were further developed” is an abrupt way to start an abstract. Something like “The FAO net forest emissions and removals estimates were refined and updated…”
2. Briefly explain what AI and NAI countries are in the abstract when they are first mentioned.
3. “The forest net emissions/removals dataset” (line 41): Presumably CO2 emissions and removals, but this should be explicit.
4. “regularly updated” (line 44): meaning every 5 years, when a new FRA is released? Or at a different cadence?
5. “FRA data sources may include national forest inventories, remote sensing, administrative data, academic and specialized studies and, in the lack of other data, expert opinion.” Were all of these kinds of data used for the carbon stock-change estimates in this paper?
6. What are “direct reports” (line 85)? This is an example of this paper assuming reader familiarity with the FRA process.
7. Table 1 needs all acronyms explained.
8. The 1:1 line in Figure 1 doesn’t look like it’s going through (0,0) because it’s intercepting the x-axis and not the bottom-left corner. Maybe this is a trick of log-log axes. If that point on the x-axis is indeed (0,0), the figure should have a note confirming that. (I’m likely not going to be the only one confused by it.)
9. In Table 2, I don’t understand what the Global-FAO and Report to both FAO and UNFCCC-FAO columns represent and why they’re different. Add a note explaining this.
10. Not all terms in equations 1-6 are defined. For example, I don’t see a definition for ΔB. αp is defined much further after the equations (line 226), complicating interpretation of the equations.
11. Why is section 2.3 (Limitations and uncertainty) in the Methods? This would traditionally be in the Discussion.
12. The fact that the 2025 data in the FRA is projected by countries needs to be clarified up front in the methods.
13. “The FAO data showed increasing carbon stocks, hence negative carbon stock change fluxes…”, i.e. “The FAO data showed increasing carbon stocks in forests (i.e. net carbon increases)…”?
14. What FAO scenario number (1, 2 or 3) is associated with -1.8 Gt CO2 yr-1 on line 331? Table 4 indicates that value is from FAO 1, but the scenario associated with every statistic should be stated in the text where the number is used.
15. “the CSC fluxes were consistently negative”, meaning they were consistently sinks? Rather than referring to the flux by sign (positive or negative) in writing, say whether it’s a source or sink.
16. As with pretty much all other figures and tables, Table 4 needs explanation of the abbreviations used, including what is included in each FAO model and what CSC, NFC, FL, AI, and NAI are.
17. There are too many colors for too many lines in Figure 3. All panels of this figure are very hard to understand. Some possibilities include: separating into more panels; dropping some lines altogether from the figure (maybe the less relevant FAO models); categorizing the legend entries more clearly (with category headers); otherwise distinguishing the legend entries better by color, line type, or thickness. As it is, I can’t tell what this figure is saying.
18. You sometimes cite Friedlingstein et al. 2025 and sometimes Friedlingstein et al. 2026. Which version of the GCB are you using? |