Articles | Volume 18, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3507-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3507-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Data description article
| Highlight paper
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22 May 2026
Data description article | Highlight paper |
| 22 May 2026
| 22 May 2026
Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)
Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford, CA, USA
Robert B. Jackson
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford, CA, USA
Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Marielle Saunois
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Ben Poulter
Spark Climate Solutions, San Francisco, CA, USA
Josep G. Canadell
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Prabir K. Patra
Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Seto Inland Sea Carbon Neutral Research Center (S-CNC), Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529, Japan
Hanqin Tian
Center for Earth System Science and Global Sustainability, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA
Zhen Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources, and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Etienne Fluet-Chouinard
Earth System Science Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Zutao Ouyang
College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA
Ting Zhang
Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore
David J. Beerling
School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
Dmitry A. Belikov
Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
Philippe Bousquet
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Danilo Custodio
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Naveen Chandra
Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Xinyu Dou
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford, CA, USA
Nicola Gedney
Met Office Hadley Centre, Joint Centre for Hydrometeorological Research, Wallingford, UK
Peter O. Hopcroft
School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
Alison M. Hoyt
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford, CA, USA
Kazuhito Ichii
Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Chiba University, 1-33, Yayoi-cho, Inage-ku, Japan
Akihito Ito
Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Atul K. Jain
Department of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
Katherine Jensen
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA
Fortunat Joos
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Thomas Kleinen
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Masayuki Kondo
Seto Inland Sea Carbon Neutral Research Center (S-CNC), Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529, Japan
The IDEC Institute – Center for Peaceful and Sustainable Futures (CEPEAS), Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529, Japan
Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability (NERPS), Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529, Japan
Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences International Economic Development Program (IEDP), Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529, Japan
Graduate School of Innovation and Practice for Smart Society (SmaSo), Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529, Japan
Town & Gown Institute for Innovation for the Future (TGIF), Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529, Japan
Fa Li
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford, CA, USA
Tingting Li
Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme Meteorology, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Xiangyu Liu
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA
Shamil Maksyutov
Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Avni Malhotra
Biological Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
Adrien Martinez
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Kyle McDonald
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA
Joe R. Melton
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Jurek Müller
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Yosuke Niwa
Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Shufen Pan
Department of Engineering, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA
Center for Earth System Science and Global Sustainability, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA
Shushi Peng
Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Changhui Peng
Department of Biology Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal, C.P. 8888, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montreal, QC H3C 3P8, Canada
College of Geographic Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
Zhangcai Qin
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519000, China
Peter Raymond
School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
William Riley
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Arjo Segers
TNO, Department of Climate Air & Sustainability, P.O. Box 80015, 3508-TA, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Rona L. Thompson
Met Office Hadley Centre, Joint Centre for Hydrometeorological Research, Wallingford, UK
Aki Tsuruta
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101, Helsinki, Finland
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Kunxiaojia Yuan
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Houston, Houston, TX, USA
Wenxin Zhang
School of Geographical & Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China
Qing Zhu
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Qiuan Zhu
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Qianlai Zhuang
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA
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Latest update: 22 May 2026
Editorial statement
This article describes a new methodology to evaluate CH4 emissions from wetlands on a global scale, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates, such as those presented in the Global Carbon Budget.
This article describes a new methodology to evaluate CH4 emissions from wetlands on a global...
Short summary
We proposed a framework that combines machine-learning and climate data to predict global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions for 2000–2025. We found that although total global emissions remained stable in the post-2020s, Northern Hemisphere emissions surged whilst tropical emissions fell. This approach allows us to rapidly monitor emissions and provides early warnings for climate impacts.
We proposed a framework that combines machine-learning and climate data to predict global...
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