Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-983-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-983-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Ten-year return levels of sub-daily extreme precipitation over Europe
Benjamin Poschlod
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 80333 Munich, Germany
Ralf Ludwig
Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 80333 Munich, Germany
Jana Sillmann
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, 0318, Norway
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Cited
32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Robustness of the Derived Design Life Levels of Heavy Precipitation Events in the Pre-Alpine Oberland Region of Southern Germany P. Laux et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091384
- Applying a time-varying GEV distribution to correct bias in rainfall quantiles derived from regional climate models M. Onderka et al. https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2024-0025
- Atmospheric patterns associated with summer sub-daily rainfall extremes in western Europe A. Whitford et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07440-7
- How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather T. Kelder et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0
- Role of mean and variability change in changes in European annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events R. Wood https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023
- Multi-hazard risk assessment and management: pathways for the Sendai Framework and beyond T. Tiggeloven et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-9-185-2026
- Bayesian hierarchical modelling of intensity-duration-frequency curves using a climate model large ensemble A. Rischmuller et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-1-2026
- Non-stationary frequency analysis of long-term convection permitting simulations reveals sub-daily extreme precipitation changes in central-southern Europe M. Lompi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.105071
- Sensitivity and scale dependence of discretization and roughness in the hydrodynamic modeling of surface runoff caused by torrential rainfall D. Feldmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135088
- An open workflow to gain insights about low‐likelihood high‐impact weather events from initialized predictions T. Kelder et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2065
- Using high-resolution regional climate models to estimate return levels of daily extreme precipitation over Bavaria B. Poschlod https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021
- High return level estimates of daily ERA-5 precipitation in Europe estimated using regionalized extreme value distributions P. Rivoire et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100500
- Trend analysis of heavy rainfall in the Western Rif: a statistical approach using the Mann–Kendall test A. Al Mashoudi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-025-01667-6
- A framework for quantifying climate-informed heavy rainfall change: Implications for adaptation strategies W. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155553
- Attributing heavy rainfall event in Berchtesgadener Land to recent climate change – Further rainfall intensification projected for the future B. Poschlod https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100492
- A framework for projecting future intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves based on CORDEX Southeast Asia multi-model simulations: An application for two cities in Southern Vietnam W. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126461
- The Teddy tool v1.1: temporal disaggregation of daily climate model data for climate impact analysis F. Zabel & B. Poschlod https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5383-2023
- Climate Change and Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves: Overview of Science and Guidelines for Adaptation J. Martel et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002122
- Weather warning archives reveal spatio-temporal hot spots of compound natural hazards W. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-96842-6
- Inter-seasonal connection of typical European heatwave patterns to soil moisture E. Felsche et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00330-5
- Hourly Precipitation Patterns and Extremization over Italy using convection-permitting reanalysis data F. Cavalleri et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-279-2026
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- Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making J. Sillmann et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765
- An extremeness threshold determines the regional response of floods to changes in rainfall extremes M. Brunner et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00248-x
- Climate change signals of extreme precipitation return levels for Germany in a transient convection‐permitting simulation ensemble M. Hundhausen et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8393
- Trend analysis of hourly rainfall in the Mediterranean: a case study of the Basilicata Region, Southern Italy (2001–2024) M. Piccarreta et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05939-5
- Sub-daily rainfall extremes in the Nordic–Baltic region J. Olsson et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.119
- EURO-SUPREME: sub-daily precipitation extremes in the EURO-CORDEX ensemble A. Dierickx et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6747-2025
- Simulating event-scale rainfall erosivity across European climatic regions F. Matthews et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2022.106157
- Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management L. Slater et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021
- Uncertainty quantification in intensity-duration-frequency curves under climate change: Implications for flood-prone tropical cities W. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106070
32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Robustness of the Derived Design Life Levels of Heavy Precipitation Events in the Pre-Alpine Oberland Region of Southern Germany P. Laux et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091384
- Applying a time-varying GEV distribution to correct bias in rainfall quantiles derived from regional climate models M. Onderka et al. https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2024-0025
- Atmospheric patterns associated with summer sub-daily rainfall extremes in western Europe A. Whitford et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07440-7
- How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather T. Kelder et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0
- Role of mean and variability change in changes in European annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events R. Wood https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023
- Multi-hazard risk assessment and management: pathways for the Sendai Framework and beyond T. Tiggeloven et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-9-185-2026
- Bayesian hierarchical modelling of intensity-duration-frequency curves using a climate model large ensemble A. Rischmuller et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-1-2026
- Non-stationary frequency analysis of long-term convection permitting simulations reveals sub-daily extreme precipitation changes in central-southern Europe M. Lompi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.105071
- Sensitivity and scale dependence of discretization and roughness in the hydrodynamic modeling of surface runoff caused by torrential rainfall D. Feldmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135088
- An open workflow to gain insights about low‐likelihood high‐impact weather events from initialized predictions T. Kelder et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2065
- Using high-resolution regional climate models to estimate return levels of daily extreme precipitation over Bavaria B. Poschlod https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021
- High return level estimates of daily ERA-5 precipitation in Europe estimated using regionalized extreme value distributions P. Rivoire et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100500
- Trend analysis of heavy rainfall in the Western Rif: a statistical approach using the Mann–Kendall test A. Al Mashoudi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-025-01667-6
- A framework for quantifying climate-informed heavy rainfall change: Implications for adaptation strategies W. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155553
- Attributing heavy rainfall event in Berchtesgadener Land to recent climate change – Further rainfall intensification projected for the future B. Poschlod https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100492
- A framework for projecting future intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves based on CORDEX Southeast Asia multi-model simulations: An application for two cities in Southern Vietnam W. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126461
- The Teddy tool v1.1: temporal disaggregation of daily climate model data for climate impact analysis F. Zabel & B. Poschlod https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5383-2023
- Climate Change and Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves: Overview of Science and Guidelines for Adaptation J. Martel et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002122
- Weather warning archives reveal spatio-temporal hot spots of compound natural hazards W. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-96842-6
- Inter-seasonal connection of typical European heatwave patterns to soil moisture E. Felsche et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00330-5
- Hourly Precipitation Patterns and Extremization over Italy using convection-permitting reanalysis data F. Cavalleri et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-279-2026
- Adjustment Methods Applied to Precipitation Series with Different Starting Times of the Observation Day F. Becherini et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040412
- How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation? E. Dallan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023
- Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making J. Sillmann et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765
- An extremeness threshold determines the regional response of floods to changes in rainfall extremes M. Brunner et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00248-x
- Climate change signals of extreme precipitation return levels for Germany in a transient convection‐permitting simulation ensemble M. Hundhausen et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8393
- Trend analysis of hourly rainfall in the Mediterranean: a case study of the Basilicata Region, Southern Italy (2001–2024) M. Piccarreta et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05939-5
- Sub-daily rainfall extremes in the Nordic–Baltic region J. Olsson et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.119
- EURO-SUPREME: sub-daily precipitation extremes in the EURO-CORDEX ensemble A. Dierickx et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6747-2025
- Simulating event-scale rainfall erosivity across European climatic regions F. Matthews et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2022.106157
- Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management L. Slater et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021
- Uncertainty quantification in intensity-duration-frequency curves under climate change: Implications for flood-prone tropical cities W. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106070
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 03 Jun 2026
Short summary
This study provides a homogeneous data set of 10-year rainfall return levels based on 50 simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model v5 (CRCM5). In order to evaluate its quality, the return levels are compared to those of observation-based rainfall of 16 European countries from 32 different sources. The CRCM5 is able to capture the general spatial pattern of observed extreme precipitation, and also the intensity is reproduced in 77 % of the area for rainfall durations of 3 h and longer.
This study provides a homogeneous data set of 10-year rainfall return levels based on 50...
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