Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-56
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-56
31 Mar 2026
 | 31 Mar 2026
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESSD.

Regional flood hazard mapping for February 2023 Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, New Zealand

Joë Pelmard, Emily Margaret Lane, Alice Harang, Cyprien Bosserelle, Zhonghou Xu, Rose Pearson, Trevor Carey-Smith, Graeme Smart, Jochen Bind, Raghunathan Senthil Kumar, Elvira Cheng, Giang Bui, Ryan Paulik, Conrad Zorn, and Liam Wotherspoon

Abstract. On February 13th to 14th 2023 ex-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle (ETC Gabrielle) caused widespread flooding in Aotearoa New Zealand. The dataset presented is a collection of simulations representing the hydrodynamics response of 16 locations across the Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti regional districts to ETC Gabrielle.  Using gridded hourly rainfall derived from rainfall gauges, an end-to-end hydrodynamics modelling framework was applied to generate 16 inundation models with variable grid resolutions from 64 m to 4 m. The framework includes: (i) the identification of contributing river networks and catchments from an initial outline of the regions of interest, (ii) reconstruction of the DEM and surface roughness map, (iii) extraction of the rainfall, (iv) hydrological modelling in the upper catchments to estimate input river hydrographs, and (v) hydrodynamic modelling on the lower catchment. These models were calibrated and validated against hydrograph records (temporal accuracy), as well as post-event aerial imagery and in-situ high-water mark surveys (spatial accuracy) where available. With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, this spatio-temporally detailed and methodologically consistent dataset offers valuable insights for researchers and stakeholders on the implications of large-scale flood events and will support efforts to enhance protective and preventive measures as well as post hoc analysis of direct and indirect impacts (e.g., building and infrastructure physical damage), while the model framework can be employed to simulate flood maps for future events. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17986628 (Pelmard, 2025a) for the Tairāwhiti regional district and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18001575 (Pelmard, 2025b) for the Hawke’s Bay regional district.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Joë Pelmard, Emily Margaret Lane, Alice Harang, Cyprien Bosserelle, Zhonghou Xu, Rose Pearson, Trevor Carey-Smith, Graeme Smart, Jochen Bind, Raghunathan Senthil Kumar, Elvira Cheng, Giang Bui, Ryan Paulik, Conrad Zorn, and Liam Wotherspoon

Status: open (until 07 May 2026)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Joë Pelmard, Emily Margaret Lane, Alice Harang, Cyprien Bosserelle, Zhonghou Xu, Rose Pearson, Trevor Carey-Smith, Graeme Smart, Jochen Bind, Raghunathan Senthil Kumar, Elvira Cheng, Giang Bui, Ryan Paulik, Conrad Zorn, and Liam Wotherspoon

Data sets

Multi-Scenario Flood Simulations Dataset for 2023 ex-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle in Hawke's Bay, Aotearoa New Zealand J. Pelmard et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18001575

Multi-Scenario Flood Simulations Dataset for 2023 ex-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle in Tairāwhiti, Aotearoa New Zealand J. Pelmard et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17986628

Joë Pelmard, Emily Margaret Lane, Alice Harang, Cyprien Bosserelle, Zhonghou Xu, Rose Pearson, Trevor Carey-Smith, Graeme Smart, Jochen Bind, Raghunathan Senthil Kumar, Elvira Cheng, Giang Bui, Ryan Paulik, Conrad Zorn, and Liam Wotherspoon
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Latest update: 31 Mar 2026
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Short summary
This study presents a dataset of simulations reconstructing February 2023 floods caused by ex-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle in eastern Aotearoa New Zealand. Combining rainfall and landscape data and numerical modelling, the dataset gives insights into how flooding developed over space and time across the modeled regions. The results aim to support researchers, communities and decision-makers in post-event analysis, risk assessment and planning, to better prepare for extreme weather events.
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