Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-377
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-377
19 Jun 2026
 | 19 Jun 2026
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESSD.

A multidimensional daily precipitation dataset (1998-2024) over the Third Pole with uncertainty estimates and precipitation phase information

Yi Lyu and Bin Yong

Abstract. Accurate precipitation data for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is critical for understanding regional water resources and global climate dynamics. However, existing datasets struggle with observational bottlenecks due to complex terrain and high precipitation variability. Here, we introduce the CRISP (Conformal Regression and Integrated Stacking for Precipitation) dataset, providing a continuous, 27-year (1998-2024) daily precipitation record at a 0.1° spatial resolution for the TP. Unlike conventional statistical datasets, CRISP integrates physical atmospheric conditions and terrain features into a machine-learning framework. The CRISP dataset effectively identifies false drizzle signals commonly seen in reanalysis data without missing most real rainfall events. Furthermore, CRISP can provide reliable 90% uncertainty intervals that adaptively adjust to the intensity of rainfall compared to other datasets, and it explicitly classifies precipitation into rain, snow, and mixed phases to directly support cryospheric research. The independent validations indicate that CRISP shows potential in reducing inconsistencies associated with the “Third Pole precipitation paradox” (Miao et al., 2024). By providing consistent precipitation estimates together with uncertainty information and phase classification, CRISP offers a valuable basis for hydroclimatic research over the Third Pole and its downstream regions. The CRISP dataset is openly available at (https://doi.org/10.11888/Atmos.tpdc.303469; Yong & Lyu, 2026).

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Yi Lyu and Bin Yong

Status: open (until 26 Jul 2026)

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Yi Lyu and Bin Yong
Yi Lyu and Bin Yong
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Short summary
Measuring rainfall on the Tibetan Plateau is vital for billions but hindered by extreme mountain terrain. We built a 27-year daily precipitation dataset using artificial intelligence to merge satellite and station data with physical landscape features. This approach corrects wind-driven measurement errors, distinguishes rain from snow, and provides confidence intervals. It offers an accurate tool for tracking climate change and regional water resources.
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