Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-330
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-330
24 Aug 2026
 | 24 Aug 2026
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESSD.

A first 90 m resolution active layer moisture dataset across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau permafrost region

Erji Du, Tonghua Wu, Liyun Dai, Youhua Ran, Yufang Min, Lin Zhao, Lingxiao Wang, Jimin Yao, Zhibin Li, Keting Feng, Yao Xiao, Guojie Hu, Defu Zou, Guangyue Liu, Zanpin Xing, Xiaofan Zhu, and Ji Chen

Abstract. Active layer moisture (ALM) plays a fundamental role in regulating the hydrothermal dynamics, freeze–thaw processes, carbon cycling, and ecosystem and load-bearing functions of permafrost. However, spatially continuous, high-resolution datasets that characterize soil moisture across the entire active layer remain largely unavailable for the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), which hosts the largest low- to mid-latitude permafrost region globally. Here, we present the first 90 m resolution, spatially complete dataset of ALM – the depth-averaged volumetric water content of the entire active layer – for the entire permafrost region of the QTP. The dataset was produced by integrating 342 in situ samples collected during peak-thaw seasons from 2009 to 2024 with multi-source remote sensing environmental predictors, topographic factors, and soil physicochemical properties. Four ensemble machine learning models, include Random Forest, Extra Trees, XGBoost, and CatBoost, were trained, and a bias-aware multi-model fusion strategy was applied to generate the final ALM product. SHAP-based recursive feature elimination was used to identify the dominant environmental controls and optimize feature selection. Random five-fold cross-validation showed high apparent accuracy (R² =0.62–0.63, RMSE ≈ 0.08 m³ m⁻³), and a group-based spatial cross-validation provided a conservative transferability estimate (pooled R² = 0.30–0.38). Within the permafrost region, ALM ranges from 0.02 to 0.70 m³ m⁻³, with a mean of 0.21 m³ m⁻³ and a standard deviation of 0.09 m³ m⁻³, exhibiting a distinct southeast-to-northwest decreasing gradient. The dataset is freely available with DOI: https://doi.org/10.12072/ncdc.permafrost.db7312.2026. The dataset is accompanied by an area-of-applicability (AOA) mask delineating the region – approximately 60 % of the permafrost region – where the cross-validated performance can be expected to hold, together with per-pixel uncertainty estimates derived from the DI–RMSE relationship and the divergence among the four models.

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Erji Du, Tonghua Wu, Liyun Dai, Youhua Ran, Yufang Min, Lin Zhao, Lingxiao Wang, Jimin Yao, Zhibin Li, Keting Feng, Yao Xiao, Guojie Hu, Defu Zou, Guangyue Liu, Zanpin Xing, Xiaofan Zhu, and Ji Chen

Status: open (until 30 Sep 2026)

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Erji Du, Tonghua Wu, Liyun Dai, Youhua Ran, Yufang Min, Lin Zhao, Lingxiao Wang, Jimin Yao, Zhibin Li, Keting Feng, Yao Xiao, Guojie Hu, Defu Zou, Guangyue Liu, Zanpin Xing, Xiaofan Zhu, and Ji Chen
Erji Du, Tonghua Wu, Liyun Dai, Youhua Ran, Yufang Min, Lin Zhao, Lingxiao Wang, Jimin Yao, Zhibin Li, Keting Feng, Yao Xiao, Guojie Hu, Defu Zou, Guangyue Liu, Zanpin Xing, Xiaofan Zhu, and Ji Chen
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Short summary
We present the first 90 m resolution dataset of active layer moisture covering the entire permafrost region of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. It was produced from 342 field observations (2009–2024) using four machine learning models combined through bias-aware fusion, and is accompanied by an area-of-applicability mask and per-pixel uncertainty estimates. The dataset is freely available at https://doi.org/10.12072/ncdc.permafrost.db7312.2026.
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