Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESSD.
Global Carbon Budget 2024
Pierre Friedlingstein,Michael O'Sullivan,Matthew W. Jones,Robbie M. Andrew,Judith Hauck,Peter Landschützer,Corinne Le Quéré,Hongmei Li,Ingrid T. Luijkx,Are Olsen,Glen P. Peters,Wouter Peters,Julia Pongratz,Clemens Schwingshackl,Stephen Sitch,Josep G. Canadell,Philippe Ciais,Robert B. Jackson,Simone R. Alin,Almut Arneth,Vivek Arora,Nicholas R. Bates,Meike Becker,Nicolas Bellouin,Carla F. Berghoff,Henry C. Bittig,Laurent Bopp,Patricia Cadule,Katie Campbell,Matthew A. Chamberlain,Naveen Chandra,Frédéric Chevallier,Louise P. Chini,Thomas Colligan,Jeanne Decayeux,Laique Djeutchouang,Xinyu Dou,Carolina Duran Rojas,Kazutaka Enyo,Wiley Evans,Amanda Fay,Richard A. Feely,Daniel J. Ford,Adrianna Foster,Thomas Gasser,Marion Gehlen,Thanos Gkritzalis,Giacomo Grassi,Luke Gregor,Nicolas Gruber,Özgür Gürses,Ian Harris,Matthew Hefner,Jens Heinke,George C. Hurtt,Yosuke Iida,Tatiana Ilyina,Andrew R. Jacobson,Atul Jain,Tereza Jarníková,Annika Jersild,Fei Jiang,Zhe Jin,Etsushi Kato,Ralph F. Keeling,Kees Klein Goldewijk,Jürgen Knauer,Jan Ivar Korsbakken,Siv K. Lauvset,Nathalie Lefèvre,Zhu Liu,Junjie Liu,Lei Ma,Shamil Maksyutov,Gregg Marland,Nicolas Mayot,Patrick McGuire,Nicolas Metzl,Natalie M. Monacci,Eric J. Morgan,Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka,Craig Neill,Yosuke Niwa,Tobias Nützel,Lea Olivier,Tsuneo Ono,Paul I. Palmer,Denis Pierrot,Zhangcai Qin,Laure Resplandy,Alizée Roobaert,Thais M. Rosan,Christian Rödenbeck,Jörg Schwinger,T. Luke Smallman,Stephen Smith,Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso,Tobias Steinhoff,Qing Sun,Adrienne J. Sutton,Roland Séférian,Shintaro Takao,Hiroaki Tatebe,Hanqin Tian,Bronte Tilbrook,Olivier Torres,Etienne Tourigny,Hiroyuki Tsujino,Francesco Tubiello,Guido van der Werf,Rik Wanninkhof,Xuhui Wang,Dongxu Yang,Xiaojuan Yang,Zhen Yu,Wenping Yuan,Xu Yue,Sönke Zaehle,Ning Zeng,and Jiye Zeng
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ.
For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr-1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1 and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr-1, with a near zero BIM (-0.02 GtC yr-1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.3 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024, suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (-0.3 % to 1.9 %) globally, and atmospheric CO2 concentration increased by 2.8 ppm reaching 422.5 ppm, 52 % above pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink.
This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).
Received: 06 Nov 2024 – Discussion started: 13 Nov 2024
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Pierre Friedlingstein,Michael O'Sullivan,Matthew W. Jones,Robbie M. Andrew,Judith Hauck,Peter Landschützer,Corinne Le Quéré,Hongmei Li,Ingrid T. Luijkx,Are Olsen,Glen P. Peters,Wouter Peters,Julia Pongratz,Clemens Schwingshackl,Stephen Sitch,Josep G. Canadell,Philippe Ciais,Robert B. Jackson,Simone R. Alin,Almut Arneth,Vivek Arora,Nicholas R. Bates,Meike Becker,Nicolas Bellouin,Carla F. Berghoff,Henry C. Bittig,Laurent Bopp,Patricia Cadule,Katie Campbell,Matthew A. Chamberlain,Naveen Chandra,Frédéric Chevallier,Louise P. Chini,Thomas Colligan,Jeanne Decayeux,Laique Djeutchouang,Xinyu Dou,Carolina Duran Rojas,Kazutaka Enyo,Wiley Evans,Amanda Fay,Richard A. Feely,Daniel J. Ford,Adrianna Foster,Thomas Gasser,Marion Gehlen,Thanos Gkritzalis,Giacomo Grassi,Luke Gregor,Nicolas Gruber,Özgür Gürses,Ian Harris,Matthew Hefner,Jens Heinke,George C. Hurtt,Yosuke Iida,Tatiana Ilyina,Andrew R. Jacobson,Atul Jain,Tereza Jarníková,Annika Jersild,Fei Jiang,Zhe Jin,Etsushi Kato,Ralph F. Keeling,Kees Klein Goldewijk,Jürgen Knauer,Jan Ivar Korsbakken,Siv K. Lauvset,Nathalie Lefèvre,Zhu Liu,Junjie Liu,Lei Ma,Shamil Maksyutov,Gregg Marland,Nicolas Mayot,Patrick McGuire,Nicolas Metzl,Natalie M. Monacci,Eric J. Morgan,Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka,Craig Neill,Yosuke Niwa,Tobias Nützel,Lea Olivier,Tsuneo Ono,Paul I. Palmer,Denis Pierrot,Zhangcai Qin,Laure Resplandy,Alizée Roobaert,Thais M. Rosan,Christian Rödenbeck,Jörg Schwinger,T. Luke Smallman,Stephen Smith,Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso,Tobias Steinhoff,Qing Sun,Adrienne J. Sutton,Roland Séférian,Shintaro Takao,Hiroaki Tatebe,Hanqin Tian,Bronte Tilbrook,Olivier Torres,Etienne Tourigny,Hiroyuki Tsujino,Francesco Tubiello,Guido van der Werf,Rik Wanninkhof,Xuhui Wang,Dongxu Yang,Xiaojuan Yang,Zhen Yu,Wenping Yuan,Xu Yue,Sönke Zaehle,Ning Zeng,and Jiye Zeng
Status: open (until 28 Dec 2024)
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Pierre Friedlingstein,Michael O'Sullivan,Matthew W. Jones,Robbie M. Andrew,Judith Hauck,Peter Landschützer,Corinne Le Quéré,Hongmei Li,Ingrid T. Luijkx,Are Olsen,Glen P. Peters,Wouter Peters,Julia Pongratz,Clemens Schwingshackl,Stephen Sitch,Josep G. Canadell,Philippe Ciais,Robert B. Jackson,Simone R. Alin,Almut Arneth,Vivek Arora,Nicholas R. Bates,Meike Becker,Nicolas Bellouin,Carla F. Berghoff,Henry C. Bittig,Laurent Bopp,Patricia Cadule,Katie Campbell,Matthew A. Chamberlain,Naveen Chandra,Frédéric Chevallier,Louise P. Chini,Thomas Colligan,Jeanne Decayeux,Laique Djeutchouang,Xinyu Dou,Carolina Duran Rojas,Kazutaka Enyo,Wiley Evans,Amanda Fay,Richard A. Feely,Daniel J. Ford,Adrianna Foster,Thomas Gasser,Marion Gehlen,Thanos Gkritzalis,Giacomo Grassi,Luke Gregor,Nicolas Gruber,Özgür Gürses,Ian Harris,Matthew Hefner,Jens Heinke,George C. Hurtt,Yosuke Iida,Tatiana Ilyina,Andrew R. Jacobson,Atul Jain,Tereza Jarníková,Annika Jersild,Fei Jiang,Zhe Jin,Etsushi Kato,Ralph F. Keeling,Kees Klein Goldewijk,Jürgen Knauer,Jan Ivar Korsbakken,Siv K. Lauvset,Nathalie Lefèvre,Zhu Liu,Junjie Liu,Lei Ma,Shamil Maksyutov,Gregg Marland,Nicolas Mayot,Patrick McGuire,Nicolas Metzl,Natalie M. Monacci,Eric J. Morgan,Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka,Craig Neill,Yosuke Niwa,Tobias Nützel,Lea Olivier,Tsuneo Ono,Paul I. Palmer,Denis Pierrot,Zhangcai Qin,Laure Resplandy,Alizée Roobaert,Thais M. Rosan,Christian Rödenbeck,Jörg Schwinger,T. Luke Smallman,Stephen Smith,Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso,Tobias Steinhoff,Qing Sun,Adrienne J. Sutton,Roland Séférian,Shintaro Takao,Hiroaki Tatebe,Hanqin Tian,Bronte Tilbrook,Olivier Torres,Etienne Tourigny,Hiroyuki Tsujino,Francesco Tubiello,Guido van der Werf,Rik Wanninkhof,Xuhui Wang,Dongxu Yang,Xiaojuan Yang,Zhen Yu,Wenping Yuan,Xu Yue,Sönke Zaehle,Ning Zeng,and Jiye Zeng
Pierre Friedlingstein,Michael O'Sullivan,Matthew W. Jones,Robbie M. Andrew,Judith Hauck,Peter Landschützer,Corinne Le Quéré,Hongmei Li,Ingrid T. Luijkx,Are Olsen,Glen P. Peters,Wouter Peters,Julia Pongratz,Clemens Schwingshackl,Stephen Sitch,Josep G. Canadell,Philippe Ciais,Robert B. Jackson,Simone R. Alin,Almut Arneth,Vivek Arora,Nicholas R. Bates,Meike Becker,Nicolas Bellouin,Carla F. Berghoff,Henry C. Bittig,Laurent Bopp,Patricia Cadule,Katie Campbell,Matthew A. Chamberlain,Naveen Chandra,Frédéric Chevallier,Louise P. Chini,Thomas Colligan,Jeanne Decayeux,Laique Djeutchouang,Xinyu Dou,Carolina Duran Rojas,Kazutaka Enyo,Wiley Evans,Amanda Fay,Richard A. Feely,Daniel J. Ford,Adrianna Foster,Thomas Gasser,Marion Gehlen,Thanos Gkritzalis,Giacomo Grassi,Luke Gregor,Nicolas Gruber,Özgür Gürses,Ian Harris,Matthew Hefner,Jens Heinke,George C. Hurtt,Yosuke Iida,Tatiana Ilyina,Andrew R. Jacobson,Atul Jain,Tereza Jarníková,Annika Jersild,Fei Jiang,Zhe Jin,Etsushi Kato,Ralph F. Keeling,Kees Klein Goldewijk,Jürgen Knauer,Jan Ivar Korsbakken,Siv K. Lauvset,Nathalie Lefèvre,Zhu Liu,Junjie Liu,Lei Ma,Shamil Maksyutov,Gregg Marland,Nicolas Mayot,Patrick McGuire,Nicolas Metzl,Natalie M. Monacci,Eric J. Morgan,Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka,Craig Neill,Yosuke Niwa,Tobias Nützel,Lea Olivier,Tsuneo Ono,Paul I. Palmer,Denis Pierrot,Zhangcai Qin,Laure Resplandy,Alizée Roobaert,Thais M. Rosan,Christian Rödenbeck,Jörg Schwinger,T. Luke Smallman,Stephen Smith,Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso,Tobias Steinhoff,Qing Sun,Adrienne J. Sutton,Roland Séférian,Shintaro Takao,Hiroaki Tatebe,Hanqin Tian,Bronte Tilbrook,Olivier Torres,Etienne Tourigny,Hiroyuki Tsujino,Francesco Tubiello,Guido van der Werf,Rik Wanninkhof,Xuhui Wang,Dongxu Yang,Xiaojuan Yang,Zhen Yu,Wenping Yuan,Xu Yue,Sönke Zaehle,Ning Zeng,and Jiye Zeng
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Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305–2210, United States of America
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Vivek Arora
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Nicholas R. Bates
ASU-BIOS, Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, 31 Biological Lane, Ferry Reach, St. Georges,, GE01, Bermuda
Environmental Physics Group, ETH Zürich, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics and Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), Zürich, Switzerland
Environmental Physics Group, ETH Zürich, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics and Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), Zürich, Switzerland
Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
Zhe Jin
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resource Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Utrecht University, Faculty of Geosciences, Department IMEW, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Heidelberglaan 2, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC, Utrecht, the Netherlands
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, Florida 33149, USA
Xuhui Wang
Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Dongxu Yang
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Xiaojuan Yang
Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to...