Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-439
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-439
26 Jan 2023
 | 26 Jan 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESSD.

The UKSCAPE-G2G river flow and soil moisture datasets: Grid-to-Grid model estimates for the UK for historical and potential future climates

Alison L. Kay, Victoria A. Bell, Helen N. Davies, Rosanna A. Lane, and Alison C. Rudd

Abstract. Appropriate adaptation planning is contingent upon information about the potential future impacts of climate change, and hydrological impact assessments are of particular importance. The UKSCAPE-G2G datasets were produced, as part of the NERC UK-SCAPE programme, to contribute to this information requirement. They use the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) national-scale hydrological model configured for both Great Britain and Northern Ireland (and the parts of the Republic of Ireland that drain to rivers in NI). Six separate datasets are provided, for two sets of driving data — one observation-based (1980–2011) and one climate projection-based (1980–2080) — for both river flows and soil moisture on 1 km x 1 km grids across GB and NI. The river flow datasets include grids of monthly mean flow, annual maxima of daily mean flow, and annual minima of 7-day mean flow (m3s-1). The soil moisture datasets are grids of monthly mean soil moisture content (m water / m soil), which should be interpreted as depth-integrated values for the whole soil column. The climate projection-based datasets are produced using data from the 12-member 12km regional climate model ensemble of the latest UK climate projections (UKCP18), which uses RCP8.5 emissions. The production of the datasets is described, along with details of the file format, and how the data should be used. Example maps are provided, as well as simple UK-wide analyses of the various outputs. These suggest potential future decreases in summer flows, annual minimum 7-day flows, and summer/autumn soil moisture, along with possible future increases in winter flows and annual maximum flows. References are given for published papers providing more detailed spatial analyses, and some further potential uses of the data are suggested.

Alison L. Kay et al.

Status: open (until 15 Apr 2023)

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Alison L. Kay et al.

Data sets

Grid-to-Grid model estimates of river flow for Great Britain driven by observed data (1980 to 2011). Kay, A. L., Rudd, A. C., Davies, H. N., Lane, R. A., Bell, V. A. https://doi.org/10.5285/2f835517-253e-4697-b774-ab6ff2c0d3da

Grid-to-Grid model estimates of river flow for Northern Ireland driven by observed data (1980 to 2011). Kay, A. L., Rudd, A. C., Davies, H. N., Lane, R. A., Bell, V. A. https://doi.org/10.5285/f5fc1041-e284-4763-b8b7-8643c319b2d0

Grid-to-Grid model estimates of soil moisture for Great Britain and Northern Ireland driven by observed data (1980 to 2011). Kay, A. L., Rudd, A. C., Davies, H. N., Lane, R. A., Bell, V. A. https://doi.org/10.5285/c9a85f7c-45e2-4201-af82-4c833b3f2c5f

Grid-to-Grid model estimates of river flow for Great Britain driven by UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) Regional (12km) data (1980 to 2080) v2. Kay, A. L., Rudd, A. C., Davies, H. N., Lane, R. A., Bell, V. A. https://doi.org/10.5285/18be3704-0a6d-4917-aa2e-bf38927321c5

Grid-to-Grid model estimates of river flow for Northern Ireland driven by UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) Regional (12km) data (1980 to 2080) v2. Kay, A. L., Rudd, A. C., Davies, H. N., Lane, R. A., Bell, V. A. https://doi.org/10.5285/76057b0a-b18f-496f-891c-d5b22bd0b291

Grid-to-Grid model estimates of soil moisture for Great Britain and Northern Ireland driven by UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) Regional (12km) data (1980 to 2080). Kay, A. L., Rudd, A. C., Davies, H. N., Lane, R. A., Bell, V. A. https://doi.org/10.5285/f7142ced-f6ff-486b-af33-44fb8f763cde

Alison L. Kay et al.

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Short summary
Climate change will affect the water cycle, including river flows and soil moisture. We have used both observational data (1980–2011) and the latest UK climate projections (1980–2080) to drive a national-scale grid-based hydrological model. The data, covering Great Britain and Northern Ireland, suggest potential future decreases in summer flows, low flows, and summer/autumn soil moisture, and possible future increases in winter and high flows. Society must plan how to adapt to such impacts.