Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-213
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-213
 
12 Jul 2022
12 Jul 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESSD.

National CO2 budgets (2015–2020) inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations in support of the Global Stocktake

Brendan Byrne1, David F. Baker2, Sourish Basu3,4, Michael Bertolacci5, Kevin W. Bowman1,6, Dustin Carroll7,1, Abhishek Chatterjee1, Frédéric Chevallier8, Philippe Ciais8, Noel Cressie5,1, David Crisp1, Sean Crowell9, Feng Deng10, Zhu Deng11, Nicholas M. Deutscher12, Manvendra Dubey13, Sha Feng14, Omaira García15, David W. T. Griffith12, Benedikt Herkommer16, Lei Hu17,18, Andrew R. Jacobson17,18, Rajesh Janardanan19, Sujong Jeong20, Matthew S. Johnson21, Dylan B. A. Jones10, Rigel Kivi22, Junjie Liu1,23, Zhiqiang Liu24, Shamil Maksyutov19, John B. Miller17, Scot M. Miller25, Isamu Morino19, Justus Notholt26, Tomohiro Oda27,28, Christopher W. O’Dell2, Young-Suk Oh29, Hirofumi Ohyama19, Prabir K. Patra30, Hélène Peiro9, Christof Petri26, Sajeev Philip31, David F. Pollard32, Benjamin Poulter3, Marine Remaud8, Andrew Schuh2, Mahesh K. Sha33, Kei Shiomi34, Kimberly Strong10, Colm Sweeney17, Yao Té35, Hanqin Tian36,37, Voltaire A. Velazco12,38, Mihalis Vrekoussis39,26, Thorsten Warneke26, John R. Worden1, Debra Wunch10, Yuanzhi Yao36, Jeongmin Yun20, Andrew Zammit-Mangion5, and Ning Zeng28,4 Brendan Byrne et al.
  • 1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
  • 2Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
  • 3NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, USA
  • 4Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD, USA
  • 5School of Mathematics and Applied Statistics, University of Wollongong, Australia
  • 6Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
  • 7Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, San José State University, Moss Landing, CA, USA
  • 8Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
  • 9University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA
  • 10Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
  • 11Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
  • 12Centre for Atmospheric Chemistry, School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
  • 13Earth System Observation, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
  • 14Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
  • 15Izaña Atmospheric Research Center (IARC), State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMet), Tenerife, Spain
  • 16Institut for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-ASF), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
  • 17NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 18Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 19Satellite Observation Center, Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
  • 20Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
  • 21NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, USA
  • 22Space and Earth Observation Centre, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Sodankylä, Finland
  • 23Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
  • 24Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences & Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  • 25Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, United States of America
  • 26Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
  • 27Earth from Space Institute, Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA
  • 28Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, USA
  • 29Global Atmosphere Watch Team, Climate Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Republic of Korea
  • 30Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
  • 31Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India
  • 32National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA), Lauder, New Zealand
  • 33Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), Brussels, Belgium
  • 34Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Tsukuba, Japan
  • 35Laboratoire d’Etudes du Rayonnement et de la Matière en Astrophysique et Atmosphères (LERMA-IPSL), Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Observatoire de Paris, PSL Université, 75005 Paris, France
  • 36International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
  • 37Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USA
  • 38Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Hohenpeissenberg, Germany
  • 39Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus

Abstract. Accurate accounting of emissions and removals of CO2 is critical for the planning and verification of emission reduction targets in support of the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset of country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) and terrestrial carbon stock changes aimed at informing countries’ carbon budgets. These estimates are based on "top-down" NCE outputs from the v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble of inverse modeling groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals (ACOS v10), in situ CO2 measurements, or combinations of these data. The v10 OCO-2 MIP NCE estimates are combined with "bottom-up" estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon stocks, which are impacted by anthropogenic and natural drivers. These flux and stock change estimates are reported annually (2015–2020) as both a global 1° × 1° gridded dataset and as a country-level dataset. Across the v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments, we obtain increases in the ensemble median terrestrial carbon stocks of 3.29–4.58 PgCO2 yr-1 (0.90–1.25 PgC yr-1). This is a result of broad increases in terrestrial carbon stocks across the northern extratropics, while the tropics generally have stock losses but with considerable regional variability and differences between v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments. We discuss the state of the science for tracking emissions and removals using top-down methods, including current limitations and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.

Brendan Byrne et al.

Status: open (until 14 Sep 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Brendan Byrne et al.

Data sets

Pilot top-down CO2 Budget constrained by the v10 OCO-2 MIP Version 1 Byrne, B., Baker, D. F., Basu, S., Bertolacci, M., Bowman, K. W., Carroll, D., Chatterjee, A., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Cressie, N., Crisp, D., Crowell, S., Deng, F., Deng, Z., Deutscher, N. M., Dubey, M. K., Feng, S., García, O. E., Herkommer, B., Hu, L., Jacobson, A. R., Janardanan, R., Jeong, S., Johnson, M. S., Jones, D. B. A., Kivi, R., Liu, J., Liu, Z., Maksyutov, S., Miller, J. B., Miller, S. M., Morino, I., Notholt, J., Oda, T., O’Dell, C. W., Oh, Y.-S., Ohyama, H., Patra, P. K., Peiro, H., Petri, C., Philip, S., Pollard, D. F., Poulter, B., Remaud, M., Schuh, A., Sha, M. K., Shiomi, K., Strong, K., Sweeney, C., Té, Y., Tian, H., Velazco, V. A., Vrekoussis, M., Warneke, T., Worden, J. R., Wunch, D., Yao, Y., Yun, J., Zammit-Mangion, A., and Zeng, N. https://doi.org/10.48588/npf6-sw92

Brendan Byrne et al.

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Short summary
Changes in the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems result in emissions and removals of CO2. These can be driven by anthropogenic activities (e.g., deforestation), natural processes (e.g., fires) or in response to rising CO2 (e.g., CO2 fertilization). This paper describes a dataset of CO2 emissions and removals derived from atmospheric CO2 observations. This pilot dataset informs current capabilities and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.