ESSDD Earth System Science Data Discussions ESSDD Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/essd-2026-895 Global Carbon Budget 2026 Friedlingstein Pierre https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3309-4739 1 2 O'Sullivan Michael https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6278-3392 1 Andrew Robbie M. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8590-6431 3 Hauck Judith https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4723-9652 4 5 Jones Matthew W. 6 7 Landschützer Peter https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7398-3293 8 Le Quéré Corinne https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2319-0452 6 Li Hongmei 9 10 Luijkx Ingrid T. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3990-6737 11 Olsen Are https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1696-9142 12 13 Peters Glen P. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7889-8568 3 Peters Wouter https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8166-2070 11 14 Pongratz Julia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0372-3960 15 Schwingshackl Clemens https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4048-3011 15 Sitch Stephen 1 Canadell Josep G. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8788-3218 16 Ciais Philippe https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943 17 Aas Kjetil 3 Alin Simone R. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8283-1910 18 Arora Vivek 19 Bates Nicholas R. 20 21 Bedard Kimberly 22 Martin Belda David 23 Bellouin Nicolas https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559 24 Benoit-Cattin Alice 25 Berghoff Carla F. 26 Berthet Sarah https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5782-2855 27 Bopp Laurent https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4732-4953 2 Brasika Ida Bagus Mandhara https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2804-7700 1 28 Burke Eleanor https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2158-141X 29 Casse Leon https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5781-8247 30 31 Chamberlain Matthew A. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3287-3282 32 Chevallier Frédéric https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4327-3813 17 Chini Louise P. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9070-3505 33 Cronin Margot 34 Curless Susan E. 35 18 DeVries Tim 36 Ehmen Tobias https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0102-8916 12 13 Enright Matthew P. 20 Enyo Kazutaka 37 Erb Michael https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1187-952X 38 39 Evans Wiley https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5450-0903 22 Fay Amanda R. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3534-1932 40 Felzer Ben 41 Ford Daniel J. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6089-6855 1 Foster Adrianna 42 Fransner Filippa https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8280-4018 12 13 Fransson Agneta https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1403-2110 43 Friedman Andrew https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6994-2037 44 Gasser Thomas https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647 45 Gehlen Marion https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9688-0692 17 Gkritzalis Thanos 8 Grassi Giacomo 46 Gregor Luke https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6071-1857 47 48 Gruber Nicolas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2085-2310 47 Gürses Özgür https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0646-5760 4 Hao Wensu https://orcid.org/0009-0007-9044-4439 49 Harrington Kirsty 50 Heinke Jens https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5256-0024 51 Hurtt George C. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7278-202X 33 Ilyina Tatiana https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3475-4842 9 Ito Akihiko https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5265-0791 52 Jacobson Andrew R. 53 54 Jain Atul K. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4051-3228 55 Janardanan Rajesh 56 Jarníková Tereza https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5105-3343 6 Jersild Annika 57 Jiang Fei https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1744-7565 58 Jin Zhe 59 Kamb Linus 35 18 Kato Etsushi https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-804X 60 Keeling Ralph F. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9749-2253 61 Klein Goldewijk Kees https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2714-7507 62 Knauer Jürgen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4947-7067 63 Korsbakken Jan Ivar https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2939-9778 3 Kunimitsu Taro https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0456-368X 3 Lan Xin https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6327-6950 53 54 Lapin Vladimir https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7302-8539 64 Lauvset Siv K. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8498-4067 65 13 Le Chevère Simone https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5527-0110 4 Lee Woo-Sung 66 Liao Enhui https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5516-7831 67 Liu Junjie https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7184-6594 68 69 Liu Zhu https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8968-7050 70 Luyssaert Sebastiaan https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1121-1869 71 Ma Lei 33 Maity Suman https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9274-9021 56 Marland Gregg 38 39 McGuire Patrick C. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6592-4966 72 Metzl Nicolas 73 Mignot Juliette https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4894-898X 73 Monacci Natalie M. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0704-5776 74 Morgan Eric J. 61 Müller Jens D. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3137-0883 75 76 77 Munro David R. 53 54 Muramatsu Miaki https://orcid.org/0009-0001-2987-1139 37 Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3870-1721 56 Neill Craig 15 Nützel Tobias https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3603-4283 15 Olivier Léa https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9014-0979 4 15 Osborn Timothy https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799 78 Padín Xosé A. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4277-3410 79 Palmer Paul I. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1487-0969 80 81 Pandey Sudhanshu 68 Pierrot Denis https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0374-3825 82 Poulter Ben https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9493-8600 83 Qin Zhangcai https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9414-4854 84 Qiu Yumou https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4846-1263 85 Rehder Gregor https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0597-9989 86 Resplandy Laure https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1212-3943 87 Rödenbeck Christian https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6011-6249 88 Roobaert Alizée https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4168-5494 8 Rosan Thais M. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0155-1739 1 Rossi Simone https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0748-299X 45 Schwinger Jörg https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7525-6882 13 65 Seeberg Gereon https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7939-8156 15 Séférian Roland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2571-2114 27 Shadwick Elisabeth H. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4008-3333 32 89 Skjelvan Ingunn https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6761-5016 65 13 Slominska-Durdasiak Karolina 88 Smallman T. Luke https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0835-1003 80 81 Sreeush Mohanan G https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3720-5408 4 Sun Qing https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0767-4721 90 76 77 Sutton Adrienne J. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7414-7035 18 Sweeney Colm https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4517-0797 54 Takao Shintaro 56 Tatebe Hiroaki https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2265-5847 91 92 Terhaar Jens https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9377-415X 76 77 Tian Hanqin https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1806-4091 49 Tilbrook Bronte https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9385-3827 32 89 Toyoda Takahiro https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7926-5754 93 Triñanes Joaquin A. 94 Tubiello Francesco https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4617-4690 30 van der Werf Guido R. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9042-8630 11 van der Woude Auke https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6286-2621 11 van de Velde Sebastiaan J. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9999-5586 95 96 Walker Anthony P. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0557-5594 97 Wanninkhof Rik 82 Yang Xiaojuan 97 Yuan Wenping 59 Yue Xu https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8861-8192 98 Zeng Jiye 56 Zheng Ning https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7489-7629 33 Zheng Bo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8344-3445 99 Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, École Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, Paris, France CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0855, Norway Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany FB02 Biology/Chemistry Bremen, Universität Bremen, Bremen, Germany Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ), Jacobsenstraat 1, 8400, Ostend, Belgium Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology, Celsiusstraße 1, 28359 Bremen, Germany Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany Environmental Sciences Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway Centre for Isotope Research, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 München, Germany CSIRO Environment, Canberra, ACT 2101, Australia Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada ASU-BIOS, 17 Biological Lane, Ferry Reach, St. Georges, GE01, Bermuda School of Ocean Futures (SOF), Arizona State University (ASU), Tempe, Arizona, USA Hakai Institute, 1713 Hyacinthe Bay Rd, Heriot Bay, BC, V0P 1H0, Canada Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, Hafnarfjörður, Iceland Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero (INIDEP), Paseo Victoria Ocampo No 1, B7602HSA, Mar del Plata, Argentina Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, UMR 3589, Toulouse, France Faculty of Marine Science and Fisheries, Udayana University, Denpasar, Bali, 80361, Indonesia Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK Statistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Via Terme di Caracalla, Rome 00153, Italy Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia CSIRO Environment, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania 7004, Australia Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co Galway H91 R673, Ireland Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington, 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle, WA 98105, USA Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA Japan Meteorological Agency, 3-6-9 Toranomon, Minato City, Tokyo, 105-8431, Japan Research Institute for Environment, Energy, and Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, USA Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, USA Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA 18015, USA Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA Norwegian Polar Institute, 9296 Tromsø, Norway National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Environmental Physics Group, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics and Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland Swiss Data Science Center, 8050 Zurich, Switzerland Schiller Institute of Integrated Science and Society, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USA Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80305, USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Monitoring Laboratory (NOAA/GML), 325 Broadway R/GML, Boulder, CO 80305, USA Department of Climate, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Advanced Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0244, USA Utrecht University, Faculty of Geosciences, Department IMEW, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Heidelberglaan 2, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC, Utrecht, the Netherlands School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain NORCE Research, Jahnebakken 5, 5007 Bergen, Norway Climate Modelling Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada State Key Laboratory of Submarine Geoscience, School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China A-LIFE, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK LOCEAN Laboratory (Sorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, MNHN), 4 Place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7220, USA Carbon to Sea Initiative, Washington D.C., USA Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK Instituto de Investigacións Mariñas (IIM-CSIC), Eduardo Cabello 6, 36208 Vigo, Spain National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FE, UK School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FE, UK National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA Spark Climate Solutions, Covina, CA, USA School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519000, China School of Mathematical Sciences and Center for Statistical Science, Peking University, Beijing, China Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW), Seestrasse 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, USA Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia Wyss Academy for Nature, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan Advanced Institute for Marine Ecosystem Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan JMA Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain Department of Marine Science, University of Otago, Ōtepoti Dunedin, 9016, Aotearoa New Zealand Earth Sciences New Zealand, Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington, 6021, Aotearoa New Zealand Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, 210044, China Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China 10 11 2026 2026 1 146 Copyright: © 2026 Pierre Friedlingstein et al. 2026 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This article is available from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-895/ The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-895/essd-2026-895.pdf

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions and their partitioning among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, supporting the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions (E<sub>FOS</sub>) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E<sub>LUC</sub>) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> growth rate (G<sub>ATM</sub>) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO<sub>2</sub> by the ocean (S<sub>OCEAN</sub>) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based <em>f</em>CO<sub>2</sub>-products. The global net uptake of CO<sub>2</sub> by the land (S<sub>LAND</sub>) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (B<sub>IM</sub>), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as &plusmn;1&sigma;.</p> <p>For the year 2025, E<sub>FOS</sub> increased by 1.2% relative to 2024, with fossil emissions at 10.5 &plusmn; 0.5 GtC yr<sup>-1</sup> (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr<sup>-1</sup>), E<sub>LUC</sub> was 1.2 &plusmn; 0.7 GtC yr<sup>-1</sup>, for total anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions of 11.7 &plusmn; 0.9 GtC yr<sup>-1</sup> (42.8 &plusmn; 3.2 GtCO2 yr<sup>-1</sup>). Also, for 2025, G<sub>ATM</sub> was 4.4 &plusmn; 0.2 GtC yr<sup>-1</sup> (2.06 &plusmn; 0.1 ppm yr<sup>-1</sup>), 3.6 GtC lower than the record high 2024 growth rate. S<sub>OCEAN</sub> was 3.2 &plusmn; 0.7 GtC yr<sup>-1</sup> and S<sub>LAND</sub> was 3.6 &plusmn; 0.9 GtC yr<sup>-1</sup>, with a small B<sub>IM</sub> (0.5 GtC yr<sup>-1</sup>). The global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration averaged over 2025 reached 425.6 &plusmn; 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2026 suggest a decrease in E<sub>FOS</sub> relative to 2025 of 0.40% (&ndash;1.5% to +0.6%) globally, and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration increasing by 2.2 ppm reaching 427.7 ppm, 54% above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959&ndash;2025, with a small positive overall budget imbalance, (0.6 GtC yr<sup>-1</sup> averaged over the period 1959&ndash;2025), although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr<sup>-1</sup> persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different estimates on the magnitude of the land CO<sub>2</sub> flux, particularly in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different estimates on the mean ocean sink and its trend.</p> <p>This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at <a href="https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2026</a> (Friedlingstein et al., 2026b).