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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ESSDD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Earth System Science Data Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ESSDD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1866-3591</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/essd-2026-726</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Daily Precipitation-Frequency Estimates under Climate Oscillations across the Conterminous United States</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Takallou</surname>
<given-names>Ali</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5336-4543</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Samal</surname>
<given-names>Nibedita</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6253-0061</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Moradkhani</surname>
<given-names>Hamid</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2889-999X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Computer Science, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>47</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Ali Takallou et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-726/">This article is available from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-726/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-726/essd-2026-726.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-726/essd-2026-726.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Precipitation-frequency data are essential for design storms, flood risk assessment, infrastructure design, and erosion and sediment control plans, but remain uncertain due to regional heterogeneity and climate variability. Existing precipitation-frequency products are generally based on stationary estimates and provide limited information on how extreme-precipitation frequency varies with large-scale climate conditions. Accounting for these spatial and climate variability effects in models over large domains is computationally intensive, which has limited the generation of such precipitation-frequency products. In this study, we developed a 0.1&amp;deg; gridded precipitation-frequency dataset, named PreXFOCUS (Precipitation eXtreme Frequency under Oscillations in Climate across the Conterminous United States; Takallou et al., 2026), using Bayesian hierarchical modeling of annual maximum daily precipitation. The dataset is available on Zenodo at &lt;a href=&quot;https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21979711&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;noopener&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21979711&lt;/a&gt;. Four model formulations were compared, ranging from independent site-specific estimation to spatially varying extreme-value parameter fields with Gaussian- copula dependence among annual maxima. Spatial pooling across all GEV parameters combined with data-level spatial dependence provided the best goodness of fit. The selected model was then used for conditional spatial simulation at held-out sites, where the resulting return levels were validated against estimates obtained from direct model fitting. These return-level estimates were subsequently incorporated into spatially varying Bernoulli occurrence models to quantify climate-conditioned changes in their exceedance probabilities. Adding MEI, NAO, and AMO to these occurrence models improved model fit relative to the time-invariant baseline and shifted exceedance probabilities by up to 40 % in some regions. The resulting products provide fine-resolution precipitation-frequency design estimates and climate-informed return levels across the CONUS, supporting hydrologic modeling, infrastructure planning, and regional flood-risk assessment.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="47"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>Award #2223893</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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