<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="review-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ESSDD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Earth System Science Data Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ESSDD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1866-3591</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/essd-2026-627</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Revisiting Sea-level and global water budgets for the period 1993&amp;ndash;2022 within ESA Climate change initiative</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Blazquez</surname>
<given-names>Alejandro</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7719-7468</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Meyssignac</surname>
<given-names>Benoit</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fraudeau</surname>
<given-names>Robin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3177-1559</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ablain</surname>
<given-names>Michael</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1398-8498</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bamber</surname>
<given-names>Jonathan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2280-2819</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bonaduce</surname>
<given-names>Antonio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0191-1554</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bouih</surname>
<given-names>Marie</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cazenave</surname>
<given-names>Anny</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Döhne</surname>
<given-names>Thorben</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1917-2027</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dussaillant</surname>
<given-names>Ines</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0617-7731</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ferrari</surname>
<given-names>Ramiro</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Horwath</surname>
<given-names>Martin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5797-244X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kolodziejczyk</surname>
<given-names>Nicolas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0751-1351</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lecomte</surname>
<given-names>Hugo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7007-4748</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Leroux</surname>
<given-names>Stephanie</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Llovel</surname>
<given-names>William</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Melini</surname>
<given-names>Daniele</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Oulhen</surname>
<given-names>Erwan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Penduff</surname>
<given-names>Thierry</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0407-8564</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Raj</surname>
<given-names>Roshin P.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5863-5269</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Spada</surname>
<given-names>Giorgio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7615-4709</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schlaak</surname>
<given-names>Marius</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-1274</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stamatia</surname>
<given-names>Papasarafianou</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Storto</surname>
<given-names>Andrea</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3856-8905</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Chunxue</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Connors</surname>
<given-names>Sarah</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Université de Toulouse, LEGOS (CNES/CNRS/IRD/UT), Toulouse, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Magellium, Toulouse, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>University of Bristol, Bristol, UK, Institute for Advanced Study, Technical University Munich, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Universidad de Chile Center for Mathematical Modeling, Santiago, Chile</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Univ Brest, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), IUEM, Plouzané, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Finnish Geospatial Research Institute, National Land Survey of Finland, Espoo, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>DATLAS, Grenoble, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Grenoble, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Marine Science, National Research Council of Italy, Rome, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>European Space Agency, Climate Office, Oxfordshire, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>19</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>59</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Alejandro Blazquez et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-627/">This article is available from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-627/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-627/essd-2026-627.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-627/essd-2026-627.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Sea‑level rise, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse‑gas forcing, is one of the best indicators of climate change. Satellite altimetry, the global Argo profiling network, and space‑borne gravimetry (GRACE/GRACE‑FO) have enabled quantitative monitoring of the sea‑level budget, yet recent analyses reveal a persistent non‑closure after 2015. We present an updated assessment of the global and regional sea‑level budget for the satellite era (1993&amp;ndash;2022), extending the previous ESA‑CCI evaluation with refined uncertainty characterisation and an objective inverse closure framework. Global-mean sea-level (GMSL) trend and associated uncertainties at 90 % confidence level are accelerating from 3.39 &amp;plusmn; 0.20 &lt;em&gt;mm yr&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; for 1993&amp;ndash;2022 to 3.86 &amp;plusmn; 0.18 &lt;em&gt;mm yr&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; for 2004&amp;ndash;2022. GMSL is driven primarily by land‑ice mass loss of 1.44 &amp;plusmn; 0.09 &lt;em&gt;mm yr&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; and 1.74 &amp;plusmn; 0.09 &lt;em&gt;mm yr&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;, respectively, alongside the thermosteric contribution of 1.24 &amp;plusmn; 0.14 &lt;em&gt;mm yr&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; and 1.32 &amp;plusmn; 0.15 &lt;em&gt;mm yr&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;, for the same periods. The budget closes robustly until 2015 with residuals under 0.3 &lt;em&gt;mm yr&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; (less than 10 % of the trend). Thereafter a statistically significant residual trend emerges, independent of the barystatic sea-level either from gravimetry or via the global water budget, indicating either a systematic inconsistency or multiple single‑dataset artifact.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Regional analysis identifies persistent non‑closure in the North Atlantic, around Australia, and to a lesser extent in the North Pacific&amp;mdash;patterns that resemble the largest steric signals and suggest underestimation of deep‑ocean steric contributions or overestimation of altimetric sea-level. An objective weighted‑least‑squares inversion (applicable from 2004 onward) demonstrates that a closed solution exists within combined uncertainties for 2004&amp;ndash;2016, but closure fails at the 1&amp;sigma; level from 2017 onward, with less than 32 % probability of consistency. The inversion requires modest adjustments to satellite altimetry but substantial corrections to the gravimetric mass term, suggesting the GRACE‑FO transition as a likely source of the budget breakdown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These findings highlight the need for improved deep‑ocean observations, refined gravimetric processing, and spatial error‑correlation estimates to achieve reliable sea‑level budget closure at regional scales in the continued satellite era.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="59"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>European Space Agency</funding-source>
<award-id>4000140620/23/IBN</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales</funding-source>
<award-id>APR-TOSCA Gravietudes</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>