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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ESSDD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Earth System Science Data Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ESSDD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1866-3591</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/essd-2026-347</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Mapping 20-years winter wheat dynamics in global primary planting areas using Gaussian mixture models with adaptive thresholds</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wen</surname>
<given-names>Yanan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Tuo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Xuecao</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bai</surname>
<given-names>Tiecheng</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yao</surname>
<given-names>Ke</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhong</surname>
<given-names>Liheng</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Han</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>Meiling</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Huang</surname>
<given-names>Xieqin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liang</surname>
<given-names>Shunlin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2708-9183</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Miao</surname>
<given-names>Shuangxi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Huang</surname>
<given-names>Jianxi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Key Laboratory of Tarim Oasis Agriculture (Tarim University), Ministry of Education, Alar, 843300, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Information Engineering, China University of Geoscience, Beijing, 100083, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510006, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Ant Group, World Financial Center, Beijing, 100000, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd Beijing Branch, Beijing, 100022, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Department of Computer Science and Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100190, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>School of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, 999077, Hong Kong, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 611756, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>These authors contributed equally to this work.</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>01</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>21</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Yanan Wen et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-347/">This article is available from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-347/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-347/essd-2026-347.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-347/essd-2026-347.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of winter wheat is essential for ensuring global food security. Currently, limited research has focused on the global dynamics of wheat over past decades. In this study, we propose a novel framework to map fractional winter wheat dynamics from 2001 to 2020 at 1 km resolution in key global planting areas from MODIS satellite data, utilizing a flexible Gaussian mixture model. We first created the stratified samples of winter wheat fractions at 1 km resolution from multiple public crop datasets, and then developed a robust random forest regression model using MODIS surface reflectance. Subsequently, we estimated the actual wheat cover fractions across different regions and years by analyzing crop mixtures within 1&amp;deg;&amp;times;1&amp;deg; grids with multiple Gaussian models. The model parameters were utilized to determine optimal thresholds for winter wheat extraction. The performance of our proposed framework was evaluated spatially and temporally, revealing significant insights into global winter wheat dynamics. Results demonstrated that our mapping approach aligns closely with existing local winter wheat maps and statistical data, achieving a coefficient of determination (R&amp;sup2;) of 0.81 with FAO statistics in primary planting regions and exceeding 0.72 at subnational scales. This study presents the first comprehensive effort to map global winter wheat distribution and dynamics from 2001 to 2020 at a near-global scale. The proposed framework is readily adaptable to other major crops and demonstrates strong agreement with existing maps and statistical records. The resulting high-resolution global winter wheat map series provides valuable inputs for global crop modeling and contributes to achieving the &amp;ldquo;Zero Hunger&amp;rdquo;. The product is publicly available at &lt;a href=&quot;https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.32149033&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;noopener&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.32149033&lt;/a&gt;.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="21"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42101418, 42371413</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>National Key Research and Development Program of China</funding-source>
<award-id>2023YFD1501300</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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