<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="data-paper" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ESSDD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Earth System Science Data Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ESSDD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1866-3591</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/essd-2025-681</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Measuring exposure of agriculture to observed temperature change</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tubiello</surname>
<given-names>Francesco</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4617-4690</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ramadan</surname>
<given-names>Nidal</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Conchedda</surname>
<given-names>Giulia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ruedy</surname>
<given-names>Reto</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hendrickson</surname>
<given-names>Michael</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8294-7294</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lenssen</surname>
<given-names>Nathan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6601-4187</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rosenzweig</surname>
<given-names>Cynthia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schmidt</surname>
<given-names>Gavin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2258-0486</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Statistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 00153, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Land and Water Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 00153, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Autonomic Integra LLC, Gaithersburg, MD 20877, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO 80401, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>27</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>16</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Francesco Tubiello et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2025-681/">This article is available from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2025-681/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2025-681/essd-2025-681.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2025-681/essd-2025-681.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>We used available FAO statistics as input metrics to compute simple indicators of exposure of agriculture at regional and global levels to temperature change thresholds, &lt;em&gt;&amp;Delta;T&lt;/em&gt; &amp;gt; 1.5 &amp;deg;C and &lt;em&gt;&amp;Delta;T&lt;/em&gt; &amp;gt; 2.0 &amp;deg;C, relative the 1951&amp;ndash;1980 climatology. Since 1995 and with respect to &lt;em&gt;&amp;Delta;T&lt;/em&gt; &amp;gt; 1.5 &amp;deg;C, results show that exposure of rural populations increased globally 14 times (from 64 to 920 million people); exposed agricultural land area grew five-fold (from 350 to 2000 million hectare, Mha). The exposed harvested area of soybean increased globally 90 times (0.5 to 45 Mha); rice 78 times (0.5 to 39 Mha); maize 38 times (2 to 76 Mha) and wheat 5 times (22 to 110 Mha). Finally, exposure of livestock grew six-fold for dairy cows and 20-fold for chicken broilers. Among regions, Europe had the largest exposure to &lt;em&gt;&amp;Delta;T&lt;/em&gt; &amp;gt; 1.5 &amp;deg;C, with more than 80 % of its rural population, cropland area, dairy cattle, maize and wheat harvested areas exposed in 2024. Exposure indicators for Central Asia, Western Asia and Northern Africa were above 65 % for cropland area and wheat harvested area. The computed exposure indicators were found to increase nearly exponentially over the period 1961&amp;ndash;2024 across all regions, highlighting the urgency of implementing appropriate agricultural adaptation strategies to avert possible negative impacts in coming decades. The data is available at &lt;a href=&quot;https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12665841&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;noopener&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12665841&lt;/a&gt; (Tubiello, 2025).</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="16"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>