ESSDD Earth System Science Data Discussions ESSDD Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. 1866-3591 Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/essd-2025-659 Global Carbon Budget 2025 Friedlingstein Pierre https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3309-4739 1 2 O'Sullivan Michael https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6278-3392 1 Jones Matthew W. 3 Andrew Robbie M. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8590-6431 4 Bakker Dorothee C. E. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9234-5337 5 Hauck Judith https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4723-9652 6 7 Landschützer Peter https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7398-3293 8 Le Quéré Corinne https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2319-0452 3 Li Hongmei https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2912-1837 9 10 Luijkx Ingrid T. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3990-6737 11 Peters Glen P. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7889-8568 4 Peters Wouter https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8166-2070 11 12 Pongratz Julia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0372-3960 13 10 Schwingshackl Clemens https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4048-3011 13 Sitch Stephen 1 Canadell Josep G. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8788-3218 14 Ciais Philippe https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943 15 Aas Kjetil 4 Alin Simone R. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8283-1910 16 Anthoni Peter https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5459-6506 17 Barbero Leticia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8858-5247 18 Bates Nicholas R. 19 20 Bellouin Nicolas https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559 21 Benoit-Cattin Alice 22 Berghoff Carla F. 23 Bernardello Raffaele https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4923-1582 24 Bopp Laurent https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4732-4953 2 Brasika Ida B. M. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2804-7700 1 25 Chamberlain Matthew A. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3287-3282 26 Chandra Naveen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5357-7757 27 Chevallier Frédéric https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4327-3813 15 Chini Louise P. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9070-3505 28 Collier Nathan O. 29 Colligan Thomas H. 30 Cronin Margot 31 Djeutchouang Laique https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7884-4586 32 33 34 Dou Xinyu https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7783-6971 35 Enright Matt P. 19 20 Enyo Kazutaka 36 Erb Michael https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1187-952X 37 38 Evans Wiley https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5450-0903 39 Feely Richard A. 16 Feng Liang 40 41 Ford Daniel J. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6089-6855 1 Foster Adrianna 42 Fransner Filippa https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8280-4018 43 44 Gasser Thomas https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647 45 Gehlen Marion https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9688-0692 15 Gkritzalis Thanos 8 Goncalves De Souza Jefferson 1 Grassi Giacomo 46 Gregor Luke https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6071-1857 47 48 Gruber Nicolas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2085-2310 47 Guenet Bertrand https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4311-8645 49 Gürses Özgür https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0646-5760 6 Harrington Kirsty 50 Harris Ian 51 Heinke Jens https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5256-0024 52 Hurtt George C. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7278-202X 28 Iida Yosuke https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5711-1375 36 Ilyina Tatiana https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3475-4842 53 9 10 Ito Akihiko https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5265-0791 54 Jacobson Andrew R. 55 56 Jain Atul K. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4051-3228 57 Jarníková Tereza https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5105-3343 3 Jersild Annika 30 Jiang Fei https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1744-7565 58 Jones Steve D. 8 Kato Etsushi https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-804X 59 Keeling Ralph F. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9749-2253 60 Klein Goldewijk Kees https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2714-7507 61 Knauer Jürgen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4947-7067 62 Kong Yawen https://orcid.org/0009-0008-9082-915X 63 64 Korsbakken Jan Ivar https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2939-9778 4 Koven Charles https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 65 Kunimitsu Taro https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0456-368X 4 Lan Xin https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6327-6950 55 56 Liu Junjie https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7184-6594 66 67 Liu Zhiqiang https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2982-8381 68 Liu Zhu https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8968-7050 69 Lo Monaco Claire 70 Ma Lei 28 Marland Gregg 37 38 McGuire Patrick C. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6592-4966 71 McKinley Galen A. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4072-9221 72 Melton Joe https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9414-064X 73 Monacci Natalie https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0704-5776 74 Monier Erwan https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5533-6570 75 76 Morgan Eric J. 60 Munro David R. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1373-7402 55 56 Müller Jens D. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3137-0883 77 Nakaoka Shin-Ichiro https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3870-1721 78 Nayagam Lorna R. 78 Niwa Yosuke https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7600-9816 78 Nutzel Tobias https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3603-4283 13 Olsen Are https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1696-9142 43 44 Omar Abdirahman M. 79 44 Pan Naiqing 80 Pandey Sudhanshu 66 Pierrot Denis https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0374-3825 81 Qin Zhangcai https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9414-4854 82 Regnier Pierre A. G. 83 Rehder Gregor https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0597-9989 84 Resplandy Laure https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1212-3943 85 Roobaert Alizée https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4168-5494 8 Rosan Thais M. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0155-1739 1 Rödenbeck Christian https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6011-6249 86 Schwinger Jörg https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7525-6882 44 79 Skjelvan Ingunn https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6761-5016 79 44 Smallman T. Luke https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0835-1003 40 41 Spada Victoria 87 Sreeush Mohanan G. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3720-5408 6 Sun Qing https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0767-4721 88 Sutton Adrienne J. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7414-7035 16 Sweeney Colm https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4517-0797 56 Swingedouw Didier https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0583-0850 89 Séférian Roland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2571-2114 90 Takao Shintaro 78 Tatebe Hiroaki https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2265-5847 91 92 Tian Hanqin https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1806-4091 80 Tian Xiangjun 93 94 Tilbrook Bronte https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9385-3827 26 95 Tsujino Hiroyuki https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3336-0275 96 Tubiello Francesco https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4617-4690 97 van Ooijen Erik 26 van der Werf Guido https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9042-8630 11 van de Velde Sebastiaan J. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9999-5586 98 99 Walker Anthony https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0557-5594 100 Wanninkhof Rik 81 Yang Xiaojuan 100 Yuan Wenping 101 Yue Xu https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8861-8192 102 Zeng Jiye 78 Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, École Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, Paris, France Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0349, Norway School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven Universität Bremen, FB02 Biology/Chemistry Bremen, Germany Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ), Jacobsenstraat 1, 8400, Ostend, Belgium Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany Wageningen University, Environmental Sciences Group, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands University of Groningen, Centre for Isotope Research, Groningen, The Netherlands Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 München, Germany CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2101, Australia Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany Rosenstiel School of Marine Atmospheric and Earth Science, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, USA Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, AZ 85287-5502, USA Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BIOS), 17 Biological Lane, St. Georges, GE01, Bermuda Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, Reykjavik, Iceland Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero (INIDEP), Paseo Victoria Ocampo N°1, B7602HSA, Mar del Plata, Argentina Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain Faculty of Marine Science & Fisheries, Udayana University, Denpasar, Bali, 80361, Indonesia CSIRO Environment, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania 7004, Australia Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA Computer Science and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co Galway H91 R673, Ireland School for Climate Studies, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland, Stellenbosch, 7602, South Africa Southern Ocean Carbon – Climate Observatory, CSIR, Rosebank, Cape Town, 7700, South Africa Engr. Computer Science, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Japan Meteorological Agency, 3-6-9 Toranomon, Minato City, Tokyo, 105-8431, Japan Research Institute for Environment, Energy, and Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, USA Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, USA Hakai Institute, 1713 Hyacinthe Bay Rd, Heriot Bay, BC, V0P 1H0, Canada National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FE, UK School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FE, UK Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1 A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Environmental Physics Group, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics and Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland Swiss Data Science Center, 8050 Zurich, Switzerland Laboratoire de Géologie, Ecole Normale Supérieure, CNRS UMR 8538, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, PSL Research University, Paris, France Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK NCAS-Climate, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany Universität Hamburg, Bundesstraße 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80305, USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Monitoring Laboratory (NOAA/GML), 325 Broadway R/GML, Boulder, CO 80305, USA Department of Climate, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Advanced Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Technology, International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0244, USA Utrecht University, Faculty of Geosciences, Department IMEW, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Heidelberglaan 2, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC, Utrecht, the Netherlands School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147, China Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China LOCEAN Laboratory (Sorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, MNHN), 4 Place Jussieu, F-75005 Paris, France Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7220, USA Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA Climate Adaptation Research Center, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA Carbon to Sea Initiative, Washington D.C., USA Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan NORCE Research, Jahnebakken 5, 5007 Bergen, Norway Schiller Institute of Integrated Science and Society, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519000, China Department of Geoscience, Environment & Society-BGEOSYS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, 1050 Brussels, Belgium Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW), Seestrasse 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, USA Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada Institute for Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC) UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC - OASU, Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy Saint Hilaire, 33615 Pessac, France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, UMR 3589, Toulouse, France Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology,Yokohama, Japan Advanced Institute for Marine Ecosystem Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resource Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China Australian Antarctic Partnership Program, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia JMA Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan Statistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Via Terme di Caracalla, Rome 00153, Italy Earth Sciences New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand Department of Marine Science, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA Institute of Carbon Neutrality, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100091, China School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, 210044, China 13 11 2025 2025 1 139 Copyright: © 2025 Pierre Friedlingstein et al. 2025 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This article is available from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2025-659/ The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2025-659/essd-2025-659.pdf

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions (E<sub>FOS</sub>) are based on energy statistics and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E<sub>LUC</sub>) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use and land-use change data. Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration is measured at surface stations, and the global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> growth rate (G<sub>ATM</sub>) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO<sub>2</sub> by the ocean (S<sub>OCEAN</sub>, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based <em>f</em>CO<sub>2</sub>-products. The global net uptake of CO<sub>2</sub> by the land (S<sub>LAND</sub>, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (B<sub>IM</sub>), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as &plusmn;1&sigma;.</p> <p>For the year 2024, E<sub>FOS</sub> increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 &plusmn; 0.5 GtC yr<sup>&minus;1</sup> (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC/yr), E<sub>LUC</sub> was 1.3 &plusmn; 0.7 GtC yr<sup>&minus;1</sup>, for total anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions of 11.6 &plusmn; 0.9 GtC yr<sup>&minus;1</sup> (42.4 &plusmn; 3.2 GtCO<sub>2</sub> yr<sup>&minus;1</sup>). Also, for 2024, G<sub>ATM</sub> was 7.9 &plusmn; 0.2 GtC yr<sup>&minus;1</sup> (3.73 &plusmn; 0.1 ppm yr<sup>&minus;1</sup>), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. S<sub>OCEAN</sub> was 3.4 &plusmn; 0.4 GtC yr<sup>&minus;1</sup> and S<sub>LAND</sub> was 1.9 &plusmn; 1.1 GtC yr<sup>&minus;1</sup>, leaving a large negative B<sub>IM</sub> (&minus;1.7 GtC yr<sup>&minus;1</sup>), suggesting that the total sink or G<sub>ATM</sub> is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 &plusmn; 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in E<sub>FOS</sub> relative to 2024 of +1.1 % (0.2 % to 2.2 %) globally, and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration increasing by 2.3 ppm reaching 425.7 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959&ndash;2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr<sup>&minus;1</sup> persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO<sub>2</sub> flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink.</p> <p>This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at <a href="https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025</a> (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).