Mapping global distributions, environmental controls, and uncertainties of apparent top- and subsoil organic carbon turnover times

Abstract. The turnover time (τ) of global soil organic carbon is central to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Yet our spatially-explicit understanding of depth-dependent variations and environmental controls of τ at a global scale remain incomplete. In this study, we combine multiple state-of-the-art observation-based datasets, including over ninety thousand geo-referenced soil profiles, the latest root observations distributed globally, and large amounts of satellite-derived environmental variables, to generate global maps of apparent τ in topsoil (0–0.3 m) and subsoil (0.3–1 m) layers with a spatial resolution of 30 arcsec (~1 km at the Equator). We show that subsoil τ (385₂₀³⁴⁸⁵ years [mean with a variation range from 2.5^th to 97.5^th percentile]) is over eight times longer than topsoil τ (15₁₁¹³⁷ years). The cross-validation shows that the fitted machine learning models effectively captured the variabilities in τ, with R² values of 0.87 and 0.70 for topsoil and subsoil τ mapping, respectively. The prediction uncertainties of the τ maps were quantified for better user applications. The environmental controls on top- and subsoil τ were investigated at global, biome, and local scales. Our analyses illustrate that how temperature, water availability, physio-chemical properties and depth exert jointly impacts on τ. The data-driven approaches allow us to identify their interactions, thereby enriching our comprehension of mechanisms driving nonlinear τ–environment relationships from global to local scales. The distributions of dominating factors of τ at local scales were mapped for identifying context-dependent controls on τ across different regions. We further reveal that the current Earth system models may underestimate τ by comparing model-derived maps with our observation-derived τ maps. The resulting maps with new insights demonstrated in this study facilitate the future modelling efforts of carbon cycle–climate feedbacks and supporting effective carbon management. The dataset is archived and freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14560239 (Zhang, 2025).