Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-114
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-114
01 Jul 2024
 | 01 Jul 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESSD.

Permafrost temperature baseline at 15 meters depth in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (2010–2019)

Defu Zou, Lin Zhao, Guojie Hu, Erji Du, Guangyue Liu, Chong Wang, and Wangping Li

Abstract. The ground temperature at a fixed depth is a crucial boundary condition for understanding the properties of deep permafrost. However, the commonly used mean annual ground temperature at the depth of the zero annual amplitude (MAGTdzaa) has application limitations due to large spatial heterogeneity in observed depths. In this study, we utilized 231 borehole records of mean annual ground temperature at a depth of 15 meters (MAGT15m) from 2010 to 2019 and employed support vector regression (SVR) to predict gridded MAGT15m data at a spatial resolution of nearly 1 km across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). SVR predictions demonstrated a R2 value of 0.48 with a negligible negative overestimation (-0.01 °C). The average MAGT15m of the QTP permafrost was -1.85 °C (±1.58 °C), with 90% of values ranging from -5.1 °C to -0.1 °C and 51.2% exceeding -1.5 °C. The freezing degree days (FDD) was the most significant predictor (p<0.001) of MAGT15m, followed by thawing degree days (TDD), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and soil bulk density (BD) (p<0.01). Overall, the MAGT15m increased from northwest to southeast and decreased with elevation. Lower MAGT15m values are prevail in high mountainous areas with steep slopes. The MAGT15m was the lowest in the basins of the Amu Darya, Indus, and Tarim rivers (-2.7 to -2.9 °C) and the highest in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins (-0.8 to -0.9 °C). The baseline dataset of MAGT15m during 2010–2019 for the QTP permafrost will facilitates simulations of deep permafrost characteristics and provides fundamental data for permafrost model validation and improvement.

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Defu Zou, Lin Zhao, Guojie Hu, Erji Du, Guangyue Liu, Chong Wang, and Wangping Li

Status: open (until 25 Aug 2024)

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Defu Zou, Lin Zhao, Guojie Hu, Erji Du, Guangyue Liu, Chong Wang, and Wangping Li

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Permafrost temperature baseline at 15 meters depth in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (2010–2019) Defu Zou, Lin Zhao, Guojie Hu, Erji Du, Guangyue Liu, Chong Wang, and Wangping Li https://doi.org/10.11888/Cryos.tpdc.301165

Defu Zou, Lin Zhao, Guojie Hu, Erji Du, Guangyue Liu, Chong Wang, and Wangping Li

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Short summary
This study provides a baseline data of permafrost temperature at 15 meters depth in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) over the period 2010–2019 at a spatial resolution of nearly 1 km, using 231 borehole records and a machine learning method. The average MAGT15m of the QTP permafrost was -1.85 °C, with 90% of values ranging from -5.1 °C to -0.1 °C and 51.2% exceeding -1.5 °C. The data can serve as a crucial boundary condition for deeper permafrost assessments and a reference for model simulations.
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