Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-103
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-103
26 May 2023
 | 26 May 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESSD.

PalVol v1: A proxy-based semi-stochastic ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection for the last glacial cycle (130,000–50 BP)

Julie Christin Schindlbeck-Belo, Matthew Toohey, Marion Jegen, Steffen Kutterolf, and Kira Rehfeld

Abstract. Perturbations in stratospheric aerosol due to explosive volcanic eruptions are a primary contributor to natural climate variability. Observations of stratospheric aerosol are available for the past decades, and information from ice cores has been used to derive estimates of stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth over the Holocene (approximately 10,000 BP to present) and into the last glacial period, extending back to 60,000 BP. Tephra records of past volcanism, compared to ice cores, are less complete, but extend much further into the past. To support model studies of the potential impacts of explosive volcanism on climate variability over across timescales, we present here an ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection (VSSI) over the last 130,000 years that is based primarily on terrestrial and marine tephra records. VSSI values are computed as a simple function of eruption magnitude, based on VSSI estimates from ice cores and satellite observations for identified eruptions. To correct for the incompleteness of the tephra record we include stochastically generated synthetic eruptions, assuming a constant background eruption frequency from the ice core Holocene record. While the reconstruction often differs from ice core estimates for specific eruptions due to uncertainties in the data used and reconstruction method, it shows good agreement with an ice core based VSSI reconstruction in terms of millennial-scale cumulative VSSI variations over the Holocene. The PalVol reconstruction provides a new basis to test the contributions of forced vs. unforced natural variability to the spectrum of climate, and the mechanisms leading to abrupt transitions in the palaeoclimate record with low-to-high complexity climate models. The PalVol volcanic forcing reconstruction is available at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PalVolv1 (Toohey, Schindlbeck-Belo, 2023).

Julie Christin Schindlbeck-Belo et al.

Status: open (until 21 Jul 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Julie Christin Schindlbeck-Belo et al.

Data sets

PalVol: A proxy-based semi-stochastic ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric aerosol for the last glacial cycle (Version 1). M. Toohey and J. C. Schindlbeck-Belo https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PalVolv1

Julie Christin Schindlbeck-Belo et al.

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Short summary
Volcanic forcing of climate resulting from major explosive eruptions is a dominant natural driver of past climate variability. To support model studies of the potential impacts of explosive volcanism on climate variability over across timescales, we present an ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection over the last 130,000 years that is based primarily on tephra records.