Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-401
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-401
08 Feb 2023
 | 08 Feb 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESSD.

Global urban fractional changes at a 1 km resolution throughout 2100 under eight SSP-RCP scenarios

Wanru He, Xuecao Li, Yuyu Zhou, Zitong Shi, Guojiang Yu, Tengyun Hu, Yixuan Wang, Jianxi Huang, Tiechegn Bai, Zhongchang Sun, Xiaoping Liu, and Peng Gong

Abstract. The information of global spatially explicit urban extents under scenarios is important to mitigate future environmental risks caused by global urbanization and climate change. Although future dynamics of urban extent were commonly modelled with conversion from non-urban to urban using cellular automata (CA) based models, gradual changes of impervious surface area (ISA) at the pixel level were limitedly explored in previous studies. In this paper, we developed a global dataset of urban fractional changes at a 1 km resolution from 2020 to 2100 (5-year interval), under eight scenarios of socioeconomic pathways and climate change. First, to quantify the gradual change of ISA within the pixel, we characterized ISA growth patterns over past decades (i.e., 1985–2015) using a sigmoid growth model and annual global artificial impervious area (GAIA) data. Then, by incorporating the ISA-based growth mechanism with the CA model, we calibrated the state- specific urban CA model with quantitative evaluation at the global scale. Finally, we projected future urban fractional changes at 1km resolution under eight development pathways based on the harmonized urban growth demand from Land Use Harmonization2 (LUH2). The evaluation results show that the ISA-based urban CA model performs well globally, with an overall R2 of 0.9 and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.08 between modeled and observed ISAs in 2015. With the inclusion of temporal contexts of urban sprawl gained from GAIA, the dataset of global urban fractional change shows good agreement with 30-year historical observations from satellites. The dataset can capture spatially explicit variations of ISA and gradual ISA change within pixels. The dataset of global urban fractional change is of great use in supporting quantitative analysis of urbanization-induced ecological and environmental change at a fine scale, such as urban heat islands, energy consumption, and human-nature interactions in the urban system. The developed dataset of global urban fractional change is available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20391117.v2 (He et al., 2022).

Wanru He et al.

Status: open (until 05 Apr 2023)

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Wanru He et al.

Data sets

Global urban fractional changes at a 1km resolution throughout 2100 under eight SSP-RCP scenarios Wanru He, Xuecao Li, Yuyu Zhou, Zitong Shi, Guojiang Yu, Tengyun Hu, Yixuan Wang, Jianxi Huang, Tiecheng Bai, Zhongchang Sun, Xiaoping Liu, Peng Gong https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20391117.v2

Wanru He et al.

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Short summary
Most existing global urban products with future projections were developed in urban and non-urban categories, which ignores the gradual change of urban development at the local scale. Using annual global urban extent data from 1985 to 2015, we forecasted global urban fractional changes under eight scenarios throughout 2100. The developed dataset can provide spatially explicit information on urban fractions at 1km resolution, which helps support various urban studies (e.g., urban heat island).