Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-40
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-40
 
22 Feb 2022
22 Feb 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESSD.

eFLaG: enhanced future FLows and Groundwater. A national dataset of hydrological projections based on UKCP18

Jamie Hannaford1,2, Jonathan Mackay3,4, Matthew Ascott5, Victoria Bell1, Thomas Chitson1,a, Steven Cole1, Christian Counsell6, Mason Durant6, Christopher R. Jackson3, Alison Kay1, Rosanna Lane1, Majdi Mansour3, Robert Moore1, Simon Parry1, Alison Rudd1, Michael Simpson6,b, Katie Facer-Childs1, Stephen Turner1, John Wallbank1, Steven Wells1, and Amy Wilcox6 Jamie Hannaford et al.
  • 1UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
  • 2Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Maynooth University, Ireland
  • 3British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK
  • 4School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, B15 2TT, UK
  • 5British Geological Survey, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BB, UK
  • 6HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Crowmarsh Gifford, OX10 8BA
  • anow at: British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Rd, Cambridge CB3 0ET
  • bnow at: Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, Swindon, Wilts, SN2 1EU

Abstract. This paper presents an ‘enhanced future FLows and Groundwater’ (eFLaG) dataset of nationally consistent hydrological projections for the UK, based on the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). The hydrological projections are derived from a range of river flow models (Grid-to-Grid, PDM, GR4J and GR6J), to provide an indication of hydrological model uncertainty, as well as groundwater level (Aquimod) and groundwater recharge (ZOODRM) models. A 12-member ensemble of transient projections of present and future (up to 2080) daily river flows, groundwater levels and groundwater recharge were produced using bias corrected data from the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) climate ensemble. Projections are provided for 200 river catchments, 54 groundwater level boreholes and 558 groundwater bodies, all sampling across the diverse hydrological and geological conditions of the UK. An evaluation was carried out, to appraise the quality of hydrological model simulations against observations and also to appraise the reliability of hydrological models driven by the RCM ensemble, in terms of their capacity to reproduce hydrological regimes in the current period. The dataset was originally conceived as a prototype climate service for drought planning for the UK water sector, so has been developed with drought, low river flow and low groundwater level applications as the primary focus. The evaluation metrics show that river flows and groundwater levels are, for the majority of catchments and boreholes, well simulated across the flow and level regime, meaning that the eFLaG dataset could be applied to a wider range of water resources research and management contexts, pending a full evaluation for the designated purpose.

Jamie Hannaford et al.

Status: open (until 25 Jun 2022)

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Jamie Hannaford et al.

Data sets

Hydrological projections for the UK, based on UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) data, from the Enhanced Future Flows and groundwater (eFLaG) project Hannaford, J.; Mackay, J.; Ascot, M.; Bell, V.; Chitson, T.; Cole, S.; Counsell, C.; Durant, M.; Facer-Childs, K.; Jackson, C.; Kay, A.; Lane, R.; Mansour, M.; Moore, M.; Parry, S.; Rudd, A.; Simpson, M.; Turner, S.; Wallbank, J.; Wells, S.; Wilcox https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/1bb90673-ad37-4679-90b9-0126109639a9

Jamie Hannaford et al.

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Short summary
The eFLaG dataset is a nationally consistent set of projections of future climate change impacts on hydrology. eFLaG uses the latest available UK climate projections (UKCP18) run through a series of computer simulation models which enable us to produce future projections of river flows, groundwater levels and groundwater recharge. These simulations are designed for use by water resource planners and managers, but could also be used for a wide range of other purposes.