Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-40
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-40
22 Feb 2022
 | 22 Feb 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal ESSD and is expected to appear here in due course.

eFLaG: enhanced future FLows and Groundwater. A national dataset of hydrological projections based on UKCP18

Jamie Hannaford, Jonathan Mackay, Matthew Ascott, Victoria Bell, Thomas Chitson, Steven Cole, Christian Counsell, Mason Durant, Christopher R. Jackson, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Majdi Mansour, Robert Moore, Simon Parry, Alison Rudd, Michael Simpson, Katie Facer-Childs, Stephen Turner, John Wallbank, Steven Wells, and Amy Wilcox

Abstract. This paper presents an ‘enhanced future FLows and Groundwater’ (eFLaG) dataset of nationally consistent hydrological projections for the UK, based on the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). The hydrological projections are derived from a range of river flow models (Grid-to-Grid, PDM, GR4J and GR6J), to provide an indication of hydrological model uncertainty, as well as groundwater level (Aquimod) and groundwater recharge (ZOODRM) models. A 12-member ensemble of transient projections of present and future (up to 2080) daily river flows, groundwater levels and groundwater recharge were produced using bias corrected data from the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) climate ensemble. Projections are provided for 200 river catchments, 54 groundwater level boreholes and 558 groundwater bodies, all sampling across the diverse hydrological and geological conditions of the UK. An evaluation was carried out, to appraise the quality of hydrological model simulations against observations and also to appraise the reliability of hydrological models driven by the RCM ensemble, in terms of their capacity to reproduce hydrological regimes in the current period. The dataset was originally conceived as a prototype climate service for drought planning for the UK water sector, so has been developed with drought, low river flow and low groundwater level applications as the primary focus. The evaluation metrics show that river flows and groundwater levels are, for the majority of catchments and boreholes, well simulated across the flow and level regime, meaning that the eFLaG dataset could be applied to a wider range of water resources research and management contexts, pending a full evaluation for the designated purpose.

Jamie Hannaford et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on essd-2022-40', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Jul 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jamie Hannaford, 29 Sep 2022
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Jamie Hannaford, 29 Sep 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on essd-2022-40', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Aug 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jamie Hannaford, 29 Sep 2022
    • AC3: 'Additional comment', Jamie Hannaford, 29 Sep 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on essd-2022-40', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Jul 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jamie Hannaford, 29 Sep 2022
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Jamie Hannaford, 29 Sep 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on essd-2022-40', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Aug 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jamie Hannaford, 29 Sep 2022
    • AC3: 'Additional comment', Jamie Hannaford, 29 Sep 2022

Jamie Hannaford et al.

Data sets

Hydrological projections for the UK, based on UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) data, from the Enhanced Future Flows and groundwater (eFLaG) project Hannaford, J.; Mackay, J.; Ascot, M.; Bell, V.; Chitson, T.; Cole, S.; Counsell, C.; Durant, M.; Facer-Childs, K.; Jackson, C.; Kay, A.; Lane, R.; Mansour, M.; Moore, M.; Parry, S.; Rudd, A.; Simpson, M.; Turner, S.; Wallbank, J.; Wells, S.; Wilcox https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/1bb90673-ad37-4679-90b9-0126109639a9

Jamie Hannaford et al.

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Short summary
The eFLaG dataset is a nationally consistent set of projections of future climate change impacts on hydrology. eFLaG uses the latest available UK climate projections (UKCP18) run through a series of computer simulation models which enable us to produce future projections of river flows, groundwater levels and groundwater recharge. These simulations are designed for use by water resource planners and managers, but could also be used for a wide range of other purposes.