Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-239
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-239
01 Aug 2022
 | 01 Aug 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal ESSD and is expected to appear here in due course.

Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: Where does the energy go?

Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minère, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Richard Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nikolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Noah Smith, Andrea Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp

Abstract. The Earth climate system is out of energy balance and heat has accumulated continuously over the past decades, warming the ocean, the land, the cryosphere and the atmosphere. According to the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this planetary warming over multiple decades is human-driven and results in unprecedented and committed changes to the Earth system, with adverse impacts for ecosystems and human systems. The Earth heat inventory provides a measure of the Earth energy imbalance, and allows for quantifying how much heat has accumulated in the Earth system, and where the heat is stored. Here we show that 380 ± 62 ZJ of heat has accumulated in the Earth system from 1971 to 2020, at a rate of 0.48 ± 0.1 W m−2, with 89 ± 17 % of this heat stored in the ocean, 6 ± 0.1 % on land, 4 ± 1 % in the cryosphere and 1 ± 0.2 % in the atmosphere. Over the most recent decade (2006–2020), the Earth heat inventory shows increased warming at rate of 0.48 ± 0.3 W m−2/decade, and the Earth climate system is out of energy balance by 0.76 ± 0.2 Wm−2. The Earth heat inventory is the most fundamental global climate indicator that the scientific community and the public can use as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing anthropogenic climate change under control. We call for an implementation of the Earth heat inventory into the Paris agreement’s global stocktake based on best available science. The Earth heat inventory in this study, updated from von Schuckmann et al, 2020, is underpinned by worldwide multidisciplinary collaboration and demonstrates the critical importance of concerted international efforts for climate change monitoring and community-based recommendations as coordinated by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). We also call for urgently needed actions for enabling continuity, archiving, rescuing and calibrating efforts to assure improved and long-term monitoring capacity of the relevant GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Earth heat inventory.

Karina von Schuckmann et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on essd-2022-239', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Aug 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Karina von Schuckmann, 01 Feb 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on essd-2022-239', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Nov 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Karina von Schuckmann, 01 Feb 2023

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on essd-2022-239', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Aug 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Karina von Schuckmann, 01 Feb 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on essd-2022-239', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Nov 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Karina von Schuckmann, 01 Feb 2023

Karina von Schuckmann et al.

Data sets

GCOS EHI Experiment 1960-2020 von Schuckmann, Karina; Minière, Audrey; Gues, Flora; Cuesta-Valero, Francisco; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Adusumilli, Susheel; Straneo, Fiammetta; Allan, Richard; Barker, Paul M.; Beltrami, Hugo; Boyer, Tim; Cheng, Lijing; Church, John; Desbruyeres, Damien; Dolman, Han; Domingues, Catia; García-García, Almudena; Giglio, Donata; Gilson, John; Gorfer, Maximilian; Haimberger, Leopold; Hendricks, Stefan; Hosoda, Shigeki; Johnson, Gregory; Killick, Rachel; King, Brian; Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas; Korosov, Anton; Krinner, Gerhard; Kuusela, Mikael; Langer, Moritz; Lavergne, Thomas; Li, Yuehua; Lyman, John; Marzeion, Ben; Mayer, Michael; MacDougall, Andrew; Lawrence, Isobel; McDougall, Trevor; Monselesan, Didier; Nitzbon, Jean; Otosaka, Inès; Peng, Jian; Purkey, Sarah; Roemmich, Dean; Sato, Kanako; Sato, Katsunari; Savita, Abhishek; Schweiger, Axel; Shepherd, Andrew; Seneviratne, Sonia; Simons, Leon; Slater, Donald; Slater, Thomas; Smith, Noah; Steiner, Andrea; Suga, Toshio; Szekely, Tanguy; Thiery, Wim; Timmermanns, Mary-Louise; Vanderkelen, Inne; Wijffels, Susan; Wu, Tonghua; Zemp, Michael https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/entry?acronym=GCOS_EHI_1960-2020

Karina von Schuckmann et al.

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Short summary
Earth climate is out of energy balance and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (89 %: ocean, 6 %: land, 4 %: cryosphere, 1 %: atmosphere). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris agreement’s global stocktake.