New high-resolution estimates of the permafrost thermal state and hydrothermal conditions over the Northern Hemisphere
- 1Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
- 2National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- 3University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
- 4CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- 5Institute of Urban Study, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China
- 6School of Science, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, China
- 7Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2a, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
- 8Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
- 9Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 8000, FI-90014, Oulu, Finland
- 10Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering and School of Civil Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
- 11Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Sem Sælands vei 1, 0371 Oslo, Norway
- 12Earth Observation Research Center, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, 2-1-1, Sengen, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8505, Japan
- 13School of Resource & Environment and Safety Engineering, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China
Abstract. Monitoring of the thermal state of permafrost is important in environmental science and engineering applications. However, such data are generally unavailable mainly due to the lack of ground observations and the uncertainty of traditional physical models. This study produces novel permafrost datasets for the Northern Hemisphere (NH), including predictions of the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at the zero annual amplitude depth and active layer thickness (ALT) with a 1-km resolution for the period of 2000–2016, as well as estimates of the probability of permafrost occurrence and permafrost zonation based on hydrothermal conditions. These datasets integrate unprecedentedly large amounts of field data (1,002 boreholes for MAGT and 452 sites for ALT) and multisource geospatial data, especially remote sensing data, using statistical learning modelling with an ensemble strategy. Thus, these data are more accurate than those of previous circumpolar maps (bias = 0.02 ± 0.16 °C, RMSE = 1.32 ± 0.13 °C for MAGT; bias = 2.71 ± 16.46 cm, RMSE = 86.93 ± 19.61 cm for ALT). The datasets suggest that the areal extent of permafrost (MAGT ≤ 0 °C) in the NH, excluding glaciers and lakes, is approximately 15.03 (13.84–19.29) × 106 km2, and the areal extent of permafrost regions (permafrost probability > 0) is approximately 20.14 × 106 km2. The areal fractions of humid, semiarid/subhumid, and arid permafrost regions are 51.84 %, 44.83 %, and 3.33 %, respectively. The areal fractions of cold (≤ −3.0 °C), cool (−3.0 °C to −1.5 °C), and warm (> −1.5 °C) permafrost regions are 37.93 %, 14.35 %, and 47.72 %, respectively. These new datasets based on the most comprehensive field data to date contribute to an updated understanding of the thermal state and zonation of permafrost in the NH. They are potentially useful for various fields, such as in climatology, hydrology, ecology, agriculture, public health, and engineering planning. As a baseline, these datasets are also of great importance for evaluating future changes in MAGT, ALT, permafrost extent, and other spatial features of permafrost in the NH. All of the datasets are published through the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (TPDC), and the link is https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data/5093d9ff-a5fc-4f10-a53f-c01e7b781368 or https://doi.org/10.11888/Geocry.tpdc.271190 (Ran et al., 2021b).
Youhua Ran et al.
Status: final response (author comments only)
- RC1: 'Comment on essd-2021-83', Stepan Varlamov, 15 Apr 2021
RC2: 'Comment on essd-2021-83 - in English', Stepan Varlamov, 20 Apr 2021
- AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Youhua Ran, 21 May 2021
RC3: 'Comment on essd-2021-83', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 May 2021
- AC2: 'Reply on RC3', Youhua Ran, 21 May 2021
EC1: 'Comment on essd-2021-83', Kirsten Elger, 26 Jun 2021
- AC3: 'Reply on EC1', Youhua Ran, 13 Jul 2021
Youhua Ran et al.
Youhua Ran et al.
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4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Biophysical permafrost map indicates ecosystem processes dominate permafrost stability in the Northern Hemisphere Y. Ran et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f3
- Diversity of Remote Sensing-Based Variable Inputs Improves the Estimation of Seasonal Maximum Freezing Depth B. Wang & Y. Ran 10.3390/rs13234829
- Exceptional increases in fluvial sediment fluxes in a warmer and wetter High Mountain Asia D. Li et al. 10.1126/science.abi9649
- Impacts of Permafrost Degradation on Carbon Stocks and Emissions under a Warming Climate: A Review H. Jin & Q. Ma 10.3390/atmos12111425