ESSD Earth System Science Data ESSD Earth Syst. Sci. Data 1866-3516 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/essd-7-47-2015 Global carbon budget 2014 Le Quéré C. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2319-0452 1 Moriarty R. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4364-1951 1 Andrew R. M. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8590-6431 2 Peters G. P. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7889-8568 2 Ciais P. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943 3 Friedlingstein P. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3309-4739 4 Jones S. D. 1 Sitch S. 5 Tans P. 6 Arneth A. 7 Boden T. A. 8 Bopp L. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4732-4953 3 Bozec Y. 9 10 Canadell J. G. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8788-3218 11 Chini L. P. 12 Chevallier F. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4327-3813 3 Cosca C. E. 13 Harris I. 14 Hoppema M. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2326-619X 15 Houghton R. A. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3298-7028 16 House J. I. 17 Jain A. K. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4051-3228 18 Johannessen T. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1671-3465 19 20 Kato E. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-804X 21 22 Keeling R. F. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9749-2253 23 Kitidis V. 24 Klein Goldewijk K. 25 Koven C. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 26 Landa C. S. 19 20 Landschützer P. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7398-3293 27 Lenton A. 28 Lima I. D. 29 Marland G. 30 Mathis J. T. 13 Metzl N. 31 Nojiri Y. 21 Olsen A. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1696-9142 19 20 Ono T. 32 Peng S. 3 Peters W. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8166-2070 33 Pfeil B. 19 20 Poulter B. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9493-8600 34 Raupach M. R. 35 53 Regnier P. 36 Rödenbeck C. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6011-6249 37 Saito S. 38 Salisbury J. E. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5894-6240 39 Schuster U. 5 Schwinger J. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7525-6882 19 20 Séférian R. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2571-2114 40 Segschneider J. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0468-4107 41 Steinhoff T. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2298-1298 42 Stocker B. D. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-9096 43 44 Sutton A. J. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7414-7035 13 45 Takahashi T. 46 Tilbrook B. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9385-3827 47 van der Werf G. R. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9042-8630 48 Viovy N. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9197-6417 3 Wang Y.-P. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4614-6203 49 Wanninkhof R. 50 Wiltshire A. 51 Zeng N. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7489-7629 52 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, CO 80305, USA Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA CNRS, UMR7144, Equipe Chimie Marine, Station Biologique de Roscoff, Place Georges Teissier, 29680 Roscoff, France Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06), UMR7144, Adaptation et Diversité en Milieu Marin, Station Biologique de Roscoff, 29680 Roscoff, France Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, GPO Box 3023, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Postfach 120161, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), Falmouth, MA 02540, USA Cabot Institute, Department of Geography, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USA Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 55, 5007 Bergen, Norway Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0244, USA Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague/Bilthoven and Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Environmental Physics Group, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, P.O. 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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (<i>E</i><sub>FF</sub>) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (<i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub>), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (<i>G</i><sub>ATM</sub>) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO<sub>2</sub> sink (<i>S</i><sub>OCEAN</sub>) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in <i>S</i><sub>OCEAN</sub> is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO<sub>2</sub> measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO<sub>2</sub> sink (<i>S</i><sub>LAND</sub>) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO<sub>2</sub>, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1&sigma;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), <i>E</i><sub>FF</sub> was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, <i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub> 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, <i>G</i><sub>ATM</sub> 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, <i>S</i><sub>OCEAN</sub> 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, and <i>S</i><sub>LAND</sub> 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>. For year 2013 alone, <i>E</i><sub>FF</sub> grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, <i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub> was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, <i>G</i><sub>ATM</sub> was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, <i>S</i><sub>OCEAN</sub> was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, and <i>S</i><sub>LAND</sub> was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>. <i>G</i><sub>ATM</sub> was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in <i>E</i><sub>FF</sub> and smaller and opposite changes between <i>S</i><sub>OCEAN</sub> and <i>S</i><sub>LAND</sub> compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that <i>E</i><sub>FF</sub> will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO<sub>2</sub> yr<sup>&minus;1</sup>), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of <i>E</i><sub>FF</sub> and assumed constant <i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub> for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO<sub>2</sub> will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO<sub>2</sub>) for 1870–2014, about 75% from <i>E</i><sub>FF</sub> and 25% from <i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub>. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014">doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014</a>).

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