ESSD Earth System Science Data ESSD Earth Syst. Sci. Data 1866-3516 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/essd-6-235-2014 Global carbon budget 2013 Le Quéré C. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2319-0452 1 Peters G. P. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7889-8568 2 Andres R. J. 3 Andrew R. M. 2 Boden T. A. 3 Ciais P. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943 4 Friedlingstein P. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3309-4739 5 Houghton R. A. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3298-7028 6 Marland G. 7 Moriarty R. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4364-1951 1 Sitch S. 8 Tans P. 9 Arneth A. 10 Arvanitis A. 10 Bakker D. C. E. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9234-5337 11 Bopp L. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4732-4953 4 Canadell J. G. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8788-3218 12 Chini L. P. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9070-3505 13 Doney S. C. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3683-2437 14 Harper A. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7294-6039 15 Harris I. 16 House J. I. 17 Jain A. K. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4051-3228 18 Jones S. D. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0522-9851 1 Kato E. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-804X 19 Keeling R. F. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9749-2253 20 Klein Goldewijk K. 21 Körtzinger A. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8181-3593 22 Koven C. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065 23 Lefèvre N. 24 Maignan F. 4 Omar A. 25 26 Ono T. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3472-5731 27 Park G.-H. 28 Pfeil B. 29 26 Poulter B. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9493-8600 30 Raupach M. R. 41 12 Regnier P. 31 Rödenbeck C. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6011-6249 32 Saito S. 33 Schwinger J. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7525-6882 29 26 Segschneider J. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0468-4107 34 Stocker B. D. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-9096 35 Takahashi T. 36 Tilbrook B. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9385-3827 37 van Heuven S. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2001-8710 38 Viovy N. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9197-6417 4 Wanninkhof R. 40 Wiltshire A. 39 Zaehle S. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5602-7956 32 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Norway Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif sur Yvette CEDEX, France College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK Woods Hole Research Centre (WHRC), Falmouth, Massachusetts 02540, USA Research Institute for Environment, Energy, and Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina 28608, USA College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK National Oceanic & Atmosphere Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 3023, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, UK Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK Cabot Institute, Dept of Geography, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois 61821, USA Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California 92093-0244, USA PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague/Bilthoven and Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Wischhofstr. 1–3, 24148 Kiel, Germany Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, California 94720, USA Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory, 4 place Jussieu, 75005, Paris, France Uni Climate, Uni Research AS, Allégaten 55, 5007 Bergen, Norway Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 55, 5007 Bergen, Norway Fisheries Research Agency, 2-3-3 Minato Mirai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 220-6115, Japan East Sea Research Institute, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology (KIOST), Uljin, 767-813, South Korea Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana 59717, USA Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, CP160/02, Université Libre de Bruxelles, 1050 Brussels, Belgium Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany Marine Division, Global Environment and Marine Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany Climate and Environmental Physics, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland Columbia Univ, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964, USA CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia Centre for Isotope Research, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands NOAA/AOML, Miami, Florida 33149, USA Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK now at: Climate Change Institute, Australian National Universtiy, Canberra, ACT, Australia 17 06 2014 6 1 235 263 Copyright: © 2014 C. Le Quéré et al. 2014 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. 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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (<i>E</i><sub>FF</sub>) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (<i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub>), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (<i>G</i><sub>ATM</sub>) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO<sub>2</sub> sink (<i>S</i><sub>OCEAN</sub>) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in <i>S</i><sub>OCEAN</sub> is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO<sub>2</sub> measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO<sub>2</sub> sink (<i>S</i><sub>LAND</sub>) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO<sub>2</sub> and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1&sigma;, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), <i>E</i><sub>FF</sub> was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, <i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub> 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, <i>G</i><sub>ATM</sub> 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, <i>S</i><sub>OCEAN</sub> 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, and <i>S</i><sub>LAND</sub> 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>. For year 2012 alone, <i>E</i><sub>FF</sub> grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, <i>G</i><sub>ATM</sub> was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, <i>S</i><sub>OCEAN</sub> was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>, and assuming an <i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub> of 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup> (based on the 2001–2010 average), <i>S</i><sub>LAND</sub> was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr<sup>−1</sup>. <i>G</i><sub>ATM</sub> was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high <i>E</i><sub>FF</sub>. The global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that <i>E</i><sub>FF</sub> will increase by 2.1% (1.1–3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO<sub>2</sub> will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70% from <i>E</i><sub>FF</sub> (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from <i>E</i><sub>LUC</sub> (145 ± 50 GtC). <br><br> This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (<a href=" http://dx.doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V2.3"target="_blank">doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V2.3</a>).

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