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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ESSD</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Earth System Science Data</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ESSD</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Earth Syst. Sci. Data</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1866-3516</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/essd-14-5717-2022</article-id><title-group><article-title>A dataset of standard precipitation index reconstructed from multi-proxies over Asia for the past 300 years</article-title><alt-title>SPI dataset over Asia since 1700</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{SPI dataset over Asia since 1700}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{Y. Liu et al.}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1">
          <name><surname>Liu</surname><given-names>Yang</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Zheng</surname><given-names>Jingyun</given-names></name>
          <email>zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9705-6884</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Hao</surname><given-names>Zhixin</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Ge</surname><given-names>Quansheng</given-names></name>
          <email>geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn</email>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of
Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, Beijing 100101, China</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy
of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Jingyun Zheng (zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn) and Quansheng Ge (geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>23</day><month>December</month><year>2022</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>14</volume>
      <issue>12</issue>
      <fpage>5717</fpage><lpage>5735</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>10</day><month>June</month><year>2022</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>1</day><month>September</month><year>2022</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>21</day><month>November</month><year>2022</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>26</day><month>November</month><year>2022</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2022 Yang Liu et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2022</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022.html">This article is available from https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>

      <p id="d1e116">Proxy-based precipitation reconstruction is essential to
study the inter-annual to decadal variability and underlying mechanisms
beyond the instrumental period that is critically needed for climate
modeling, prediction and attribution. Based on 2912 annually resolved proxy
series mainly derived from tree rings and historical documents, we present a
set of standard precipitation index (SPI) reconstructions for each year (November–October), covering the whole of Asia, and for the wet season (i.e., November–April for western
Asia and May–October for the others) since 1700, with the spatial resolution of
2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. To screen the optimal candidate proxies for SPI
reconstruction in each grid from available proxies in its connected region
with a homogeneous rainfall regime and similar precipitation variability, a
new approach is developed by adopting the grid-location-dependent division
derived from the instrumental SPI data. The validation shows that these
reconstructions are effective for most of Asia. The assessment of data
quality compared with gauge precipitation before calibration time indicates
that our reconstruction has high quality to show the precipitation
variability in most of the study areas, except for a few grids in western
Russia, the coastal area of southeast Asia and northern Japan. The full dataset can be obtained from <uri>https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.01829</uri> (Y. Liu et al., 2022).</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d1e140">Asia bears the brunt of flood and drought disasters and is associated more than any other continent with
extensive social and economic damages due to its
large and heterogeneous landmass plus its high population densities in the
southern and eastern regions (Lee et al., 2020; Wei et al., 2020). At the national
level, 7 of the top 10 countries in the world with the largest number
of population affected by climate-related disasters (mainly flood and
drought) are located in Asia (CRED and UNISDR, 2015). However, the
inter-annual, decadal and centennial spatiotemporal variability of Asian
precipitation and the underlying mechanisms have not been fully characterized,
which limits the performance of precipitation projection for the next
decades to hundred years (Seth et al., 2019; Wang et al., 2021; F. Liu et al.,
2022). Long-term, spatially resolved and high-quality precipitation
datasets are needed to address these issues. Unfortunately, the global
precipitation observation network only covers the past century (Sun et al.,
2018), while the data for the first half period in Asia is at low confidence
levels (Hartmann et al., 2013). Therefore, proxy-based precipitation
reconstructions are essential to quantify the precipitation variability
beyond the instrumental period.</p>
      <p id="d1e143">Up to now, there have been four gridded datasets to reconstruct summer (or the
warm season) precipitation variability in mid–low latitude Asia for the past
hundreds of years (Cook et al., 2010a; Feng et al., 2013; Shi et al., 2018, 2017) by using tree-ring chronologies only or by merging
multi-proxies. For example, using 327 tree-ring chronologies mainly located
in the Tibetan Plateau and Mongolia, Cook et al. (2010a) reconstructed the
gridded (2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) summer (June–August, JJA)
Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) over monsoon Asia during 1300–2005. By
weighted merging 453 tree-ring-width chronologies and 71-site
dryness–wetness grade series derived from Chinese historical documents
(local gazettes), Shi et al. (2018) reconstructed a gridded Asian summer
precipitation dataset for 1470–2013. Similar reconstructions were also
conducted for North America (Cook et al., 2010b; Stahle et al., 2020),
Europe (Cook et al., 2015, 2020) and for Oceania (Palmer et al.,
2015). Moreover, by using a data assimilation (DA) approach to combine 2978
proxy data with the physical constraints of the atmosphere–ocean climate
model together, a globally gridded (2.0<inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.0<inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) hydroclimate index dataset over the Common Era was also reconstructed
(Steiger et al., 2018), including PDSI and the standardized precipitation
evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for JJA, DJF (December–February) and April to the next
March. These datasets extend records back in time and provide valuable
efforts on improving the gridded paleoclimate reconstruction by synthesizing
multi-proxies from individual sites with spatiotemporal inhomogeneity.</p>
      <p id="d1e197">However, intercomparisons of the abovementioned four gridded
precipitation–drought variability reconstructions in monsoon Asia (Cook et
al., 2010a; Feng et al., 2013; Shi et al., 2017, 2018) with
independent instrumental observation data show notable differences among
them, caused by proxies and methods for calibration, particularly dominated
by the number and sample distribution of proxies used, as well as the
seasonal sensitivity of the individual proxy to precipitation anomalies (Liu
et al., 2021). For example, in the reconstruction from only tree-ring
proxies, the explained variance in regions with sparse proxies (e.g., eastern
China, mainland southeast Asia) is usually less than 20 % (Cook et al.,
2010a). By merging tree-ring and documentary proxies in the reconstruction,
the result is believed to illustrate large-scale rainfall variability
faithfully but has more uncertainties in representing regional rainfall
anomalies (Shi et al., 2018). Moreover, the precipitation over Asia has a
complex spatial pattern, with the temporal variability on intra-seasonal and
inter-annual scales (Hsu et al., 2014) due to different rainfall regimes in
space (Awan et al., 2015; Conroy and Overpeck, 2011). Therefore, the
sensitivity of individual proxies to precipitation anomalies has evident
regional differences between seasons. In addition, many new proxies achieved in
recent years are not utilized in the above-mentioned four gridded
reconstructions in monsoon Asia (e.g., Shah et al., 2007; Sass-Klaassen et
al., 2007; Arsalani et al., 2018, 2015; Chen et al., 2016;
Zhang et al., 2017; Pumijumnong et al., 2020; Xu et al., 2015; Buckley et
al., 2017; Ukhvatkina et al., 2021; Akkemik et al., 2020; Kostyakova et al.,
2017; Kucherov, 2010; Xu et al., 2013; Borgaonkar et al., 2010). All of
these motivate us to initiate this new gridded (2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>) reconstruction effort on seasonal to annual precipitation
variability over the past 300 years in the whole of Asia, including the western
and northern Asia not covered in the four gridded datasets developed in previous
studies (Cook et al., 2010a; Feng et al., 2013; Shi et al., 2018, 2017). Noting that most of Russian territory is located in Asia, to keep
the data integrity at the national level, the whole Russian territory is
included in this study.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Data and method</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1">
  <label>2.1</label><title>The study area and the framework for grid SPI reconstruction</title>
      <p id="d1e240">The spatial coverage of our reconstruction is shown in Fig. 1, and the
reconstructed target is standard precipitation index (SPI). In this vast
study area, there are many climatic types with heterogeneous precipitation;
specifically, the wet season in western Asia and the southwestern part of
central Asia is mainly from November–April, but that in the
rest of the regions is May–October due to different rainfall regimes in
different regions (Bombardi et al., 2019; Peng et al., 2020). Thus, we
reconstructed the annual (November–October) SPI for the entire
study area, as well as the November–April SPI in western Asia and the southwestern
part of central Asia and the May–October SPI in the other regions for the wet
season. The flow chart of the reconstruction procedures is
shown in Fig. 2. It is noted that there exists a complex spatial coherence pattern
for the precipitation variation on scales of inter-annual, decadal and
longer in the study area, which means the spatial representativeness of the
individual proxy is dominated by the location in the context of the region
(e.g., shape and area) with coherent rainfall regime and variation.
Therefore, we develop a new approach to select proxies for each grid SPI
reconstruction by adopting the grid-location-dependent division (GLDD)
derived from the instrumental SPI data, instead of selecting proxies usually
from an isotropic search radius for all grids in many previous studies
(e.g., Cook et al., 2010a; Shi et al., 2018). The methods for
reconstruction (including GLDD), searching candidate proxies for calibration,
and validation will be presented in Sect. 2.4.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e245">The study area and the spatial difference of rainfall
regime, with the wettest bimester (two consecutive months) shown by the
monthly GPCP precipitation data from 1948–2019. The dot marker indicates
that the grid lacks a clear wet season. Annual (November–October) SPI is
reconstructed for all non-gray grids, while wet season (November–April and May–October)
SPI is reconstructed in regions with black and brown boundaries
respectively.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f01.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e256">The flow chart of SPI reconstruction over Asia for
1700–2000 in this study.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=398.338583pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2">
  <label>2.2</label><title>Instrumental data for calibration and spatial pattern of wet season identification</title>
      <p id="d1e273">In our study, the grid size for SPI reconstruction is set as
2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. The instrumental data
used for calibration are resized from the 0.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> gridded monthly SPI data for 1948–2019 calculated by
NOAA's land precipitation product (Chen et al., 2002), which was downloaded
via IRI/LDEO Climate Data Library
(<uri>http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.IRI/.Analyses/.SPI/</uri>, last access: 21 May 2022). As pointed
out by previous studies (Bombardi et al., 2019; Peng et al., 2020; Nieto et
al., 2019), moisture sources are different across Asia throughout the year,
and the wet season could be roughly classified as two terms of November–April and
May–October. Therefore, to identify the spatial pattern of the wet season for
SPI reconstruction in the 2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> gridded scale induced by different regional rainfall
regimes, the monthly precipitation data for 1948–2019 by GPCC (Schneider et
al., 2017) is also used to calculate two consecutive months with the most
rainfall amount in a year (Fig. 1). It is shown that, in most parts of the
study area, the wettest two consecutive months are in May–October. However, in
western Asia (excluding the south corner of the Arabian Peninsula), the
southwest part of central Asia and the tropical zone south to 10<inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N, the wettest two consecutive months are in November–April. Moreover, there also
exist a few grids (dot marked in Fig. 1) that have no distinct wet season
(Bombardi et al., 2019). Thus, we exclude the dotted grids in wet season SPI
reconstruction.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3">
  <label>2.3</label><title>Proxy data preparation</title>
      <p id="d1e372">There are a total of 2912 annually resolved proxy series from Asia and
adjacent land areas (Eastern Europe and Alaska) for reconstruction, of which
2792 are derived from tree-rings, 115 from historical documents, 4 from ice
cores, and 1 from a stalagmite. Their spatial and temporal distribution is
shown in Fig. 3. It is noted that all of the proxy series have at least 20 records
overlapped with the instrumental period since 1948 to ensure a sufficient
sample size for calibration and validation and more than 30 records before
1948 for reconstruction. The data source and standardized processes for each
type of proxy series are described below.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e377">Spatial <bold>(a)</bold> and temporal <bold>(b)</bold> distribution of proxies.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e392">Tree-ring data are mainly (2772) from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank
(ITRDB), maintained by the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology (WDC-P,
<uri>https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology</uri>, last access: 28 October 2022), including 1854
tree-ring width records, 828 tree-ring density records, 67 tree-ring
latewood percent records, 22 tree-ring stable oxygen isotope (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O) records and 1 tree-ring blue-intensity record. Most sites have
two categories of data, i.e., original raw tree-ring measurements and
tree-ring index chronologies derived from raw measurements. However, the
index chronologies are not used directly in this study because they were
standardized by various methods which are not described in the online
metadata, and some of the methods may result in a substantial loss of
long-term fluctuations (Coulthard et al., 2020). To maximally preserve the
climatic-related low-frequency variance, we recalculate the chronologies
from 2644 available raw measurement files by removing the growth trend with
age-dependent splines (Melvin et al., 2007). In a few cases where
age-dependent splines contain zeros or negative values, a more flexible
curve, the Friedman variable span smoother (Friedman, 1984), is used to fit the
growth trend. In addition, some trees experience disturbances during their
lifespan, which could cause abrupt growth increases or reductions (Altman,
2020). To eliminate this effect, the running mean technique (Altman et al.,
2014) is applied to identify the disturbance event, then separate growth
curves are fitted before and after this year. Finally, the 51-year sliding
expressed population signal (EPS) is calculated, and the threshold of 0.85 is
used to determine the first reliable year of a chronology. The above
procedures are also applied for sites with raw measurements only. The other
128 tree-ring records from ITRDB only have chronologies; EPS is not
available, and thus we use the minimum sample size of 5 to determine the first
reliable year. Besides ITRDB, 17 tree-ring width chronologies and 3
tree-ring <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O chronologies that indicate local precipitation
or drought from recently published papers are included in our study (Shah et
al., 2007; Sass-Klaassen et al., 2007; Arsalani et al., 2018, 2015; Chen et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2017; Pumijumnong et al., 2020;
Xu et al., 2015; Buckley et al., 2017; Ukhvatkina et al., 2021; Akkemik et
al., 2020; Kostyakova et al., 2017; Kucherov, 2010; Xu et al., 2013;
Borgaonkar et al., 2010). Compared with the tree-ring network used in
previous studies over the monsoon Asia region (Cook et al., 2010a; Feng et
al., 2013; Shi et al., 2017, 2018), a total of 113 ring-width
chronologies are added in our study.</p>
      <p id="d1e421">It is worth noting that part of the sites consists of both tree-ring width and
density chronologies. According to the principle of dendroclimatology, the
availability of soil water affects the growth rate and formation of wood,
both within a season and the longer term; thus, tree-ring width is expected
to be positively correlated with precipitation via this direct response
(Vaganov et al., 2011; Wettstein et al., 2011). For tree-ring density
chronologies, they are usually correlated with temperature variation and
scarcely used in precipitation reconstruction (Briffa et al., 2002).
However, due to multiple types of climate and complex topography in the vast
study area, the tree-ring density chronologies and width chronologies with
negative correlations to precipitation may also indicate precipitation
variation well (George, 2014), and the use of such tree-ring predictors in
hydro-climate reconstruction has been discussed in prior studies (e.g., Cook
et al., 2020). Therefore, we reconstruct two versions of SPI: one excludes
tree-ring width chronologies negatively correlated to precipitation and
tree-ring density chronologies (hereafter called “Version A”), the other
includes all tree-ring chronologies (hereafter called “Version B”).</p>
      <p id="d1e424">The proxy from historical documents is mainly the dryness–wetness grade
series for 120 sites in China for the past 500 years (henceforth referred to
as DW120) by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science (CAMS, 1981). The
grades were calibrated based on descriptions of droughts and floods and their
impacts during the wet season, mainly recorded in Chinese local gazettes,
using ideal frequency criteria of all time, roughly 10 % for grades 1 and
5 (heavy flood and severe drought), 20 %–30 % for grades 2 and 4 (flood and
drought), and 30 %–40 % for grade 3 (normal). This grade dataset originally
ended in 1979 (CAMS, 1981) and was extended to 2000 (Zhang et al., 2003;
Zhang and Liu, 1993), which becomes an essential dataset to reconstruct
summer precipitation over the Asia monsoon domain (Feng et al., 2013;  Shi et al., 2017, 2018). However, DW120 contains a large proportion of
missing data because there are only 26 040 grade records since 1700 (Fig. 4a), which limits the spatial and temporal coverage of data for gridded SPI
reconstruction. Therefore, we update this dataset by two steps. The first is
adding the missing data in DW120 from another dryness–wetness grade dataset
for 63 sites in central eastern China (DW63) developed by Zhang (1996).
It is noted that all sites of DW63 are included in DW120, and the grading criteria
for DW63 are the same as DW120. Since DW63 was reconstructed from more
abundant historical documents (such as the drought and flood descriptions
recorded in the memoirs and archives of the Qing Dynasty), it had fewer
missing records, with 100 % data availability after 1700. Therefore, all
missing records of DW120 in central eastern China are added from DW63, which
supplements 2045 grade records in total. The second step is interpolation from
the isoline map of DW120 for individual years when most sites have available
data (CAMS, 1981), which supplements 4121 grade records. Since DW63 was
reconstructed by the same grading criteria as DW120, both the 2045 added
grade records from DW63 and the 4121 added records from the yearly isoline
map of DW120 match with the original available data. This updated DW120
finally contains 32 206 grade records since 1700, which is a 23.7 %
increase compared with the original version (Fig. 4b). Unfortunately, no
data are available before the 20th century for 10 sites in western China and
one site in northeastern China (cross marked in Fig. 4b); thus, only 109 sites
in China are selected for our SPI reconstruction. Another documentary-based
dryness–wetness grade series since 1781 is from Mumbai, India, which also
consists of five grades calibrated against the percentage of rainfall anomalies
derived from instrumental data in their overlapped period (Adamson and Nash,
2014). In addition, the series of wet-season (May–October) rainy days for
five sites in Japan are also included. These series were extracted from the
historical diaries
(<uri>https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/5412</uri>, last access: 25 October 2022) and merged with
instrumental data (Kamiguchi et al., 2010) by the method from Murata (1992).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e432">The proportion of available data for DW120 in the
original version <bold>(a)</bold> and after updating <bold>(b)</bold>. Sites with a cross marker in
<bold>(b)</bold> are excluded in the reconstruction.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f04.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e450">The rest of the proxy series, derived from four ice cores in the Himalayas and one
stalagmite in India, are also downloaded from WDC-P and have been proven to
indicate hydro-climatic change by prior studies (Thompson et al., 2000;
Sinha et al., 2011; Qin et al., 2002). It is worth noting that the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O ratio series of the ice core from East Rongbuk Glacier is
unequally spaced, with a mean temporal resolution of 0.082 years, which is
simply re-sampled to an annually resolved series by averaging data in the same
year.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS4">
  <label>2.4</label><title>Method for grid SPI reconstruction with grid-location-dependent division</title>
      <p id="d1e472">Since there are many climatic types with heterogeneous precipitation in the
study area, and since the spatial representativeness of an individual proxy is
sensitive to location, we develop a new approach to identify the region for
searching proxies (called “searching region” hereafter) to reconstruct SPI
in each grid. This approach is developed according to the regional division
of the coherence of inter-annual precipitation variations in the context of the
spatial pattern of rainfall regimes to ensure the proxies in the searching
region can indicate SPI variability in the target grid well. We divided the
regions from the spatial pattern of the correlation coefficient (CC) between the SPI
of each target grid for SPI reconstruction and the other grids within the
study area, which is calculated from instrumental SPI data. The searching
region is defined as all connected grids surrounding the target grid with CCs
passing 0.05 significance level. Thus, this searching region has the robust
coherence of precipitation variability and rainfall regimes with the target
grid, and the proxies in this region have the best spatial
representativeness in relation to the target grid. Since this regional division is
dependent on the grid location by rolling the target grid, this approach was
called “grid-location-dependent division (GLDD)” in our study (Fig. 2).
Moreover, we use best subset regression (BSR) to identify optimal
combinations of the candidate proxies for calibration in each grid SPI
reconstruction based on available proxies in different intervals (Fig. 2) because the proxies are unevenly distributed in space
and time. The following shows the November–October SPI reconstruction for a grid of
90.0–92.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E and 27.5–30.0<inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N (located in southwest
China) as an example of the detailed steps.</p>
      <p id="d1e493">Firstly, the spatial SPI correlation field of the target grid is calculated,
and the regions with positively significant (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)
correlation coefficients are identified (Fig. 5a). It shows that the target grid and its
adjacent grids have significant correlations that cover an irregular shape
(i.e., not a circle-like shape, with an isotropic radius from the target grid, or other
regular shape) in southwest China, which means there exists robust coherence
for SPI variation. This is because the rainfall regime and precipitation for
that region are usually dominated by the same atmospheric circulation
systems (Zhang and Wang, 2021). Besides, there are some other remote regions
(e.g., the Malay Archipelago, the Russian Plain, and regions around the New
Siberian Islands) that show significant correlations to the target grid.
However, prior studies have reported that the long-distance precipitation
teleconnection patterns are usually unstable over a long-term period,
since they are linked by large-scale atmospheric circulations or propagating
waves (Wu, 2016; Boers et al., 2019). Therefore, the candidate proxies for
the target grid SPI reconstruction should be searched only from the
connected region (Fig. 5b), and there are a total of 43 proxies for the
candidate proxy selection.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d1e510">Demonstration of a grid SPI reconstruction for showing
proxy selection by the GLDD approach. <bold>(a)</bold> The target grid (yellow square)
and regions (light blue) that have significantly (at least <inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)
positively correlated SPI change. <bold>(b)</bold> The searching region connected with the
target grid and proxies in it. A proxy marker with a black edge means it is
significantly (at least <inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) correlated with SPI change in the
target grid. <bold>(c)</bold> Temporal coverage of picked proxy series and derived four
segments based on available proxies. Proxies are listed in ascending order
of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> value from bottom to top. When a segment has more than five proxies, the
bottom five (solid patch) are used in BSR, and the others (cross patch) are
excluded. Proxies that remained in the final BSR model are marked with plus
signs. <bold>(d)</bold> Reconstructed SPI series and calibration <inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for each segment.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f05.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e577">Secondly, the correlations between the target grid SPI and each
series of 43 proxies in the searching region are calculated to select the candidate proxies
by the threshold of the 0.1 significance level for the correlations. Note
that prior summer precipitation could affect the tree-ring formation in the
next year (Wettstein et al., 2011); thus 1-year-lagged tree-ring
chronologies are also included for the November–October SPI reconstruction. However,
the proxies with highly positive correlations may lead to multi-linearity
effects in the regression equation for calibration. Thus, we also calculate
the correlations among all 43 proxy series, and if any pair of proxy series
shows an extremely high positive correlation (i.e., <inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>r</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.90</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.0001</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) in their common period, the shorter one will be excluded
from the pool of candidate proxies. By this step, a total of eight proxy series
(including five tree-ring width series, one tree-ring <inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O series
and two dryness–wetness grade series) are selected for BSR in the following
step (Fig. 5b).</p>
      <p id="d1e615">Thirdly, the calibration equation is established by using BSR for each time
segment, depending on the length of the candidate proxy series. According to
the start and end year of all eight candidate proxy series, the time of proxy
availability should be classified into six segments, in which there are eight
candidate proxies for 1772–1997, seven candidate proxies for two segments in
1745–1771 and 1998–2000 respectively, six candidate proxies for 1743–1744, five
candidate proxies for 1739–1742 and four candidate proxies for 1700–1738 (Fig. 5c). Moreover, to avoid the overfitting in the regression induced by
redundant independent variables (Lever et al., 2016), if there are more than
five candidate proxies, only five proxy series with the top five significance levels for
the correlations with target SPI are retained for the regression. This is
because the sample length to develop calibration equations for
reconstruction is about 50 years usually, and the sample size should preferably be 10 times (or more) the number of variables for BSR, according to
the principle of statistics (Sekaran, 2003). Thus, three individual segments
(1743–1744, 1745–1771 and 1772–1997) retain the same five proxies (i.e., two
tree-ring width series, one tree-ring <inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">δ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">18</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>O series and two DW120
series), and they could be regarded as one segment of 1743–1997. Then, we
use BSR to establish four calibration equations for SPI reconstruction in
1700–1738, 1739–1742, 1743–1997 and 1998–2000 respectively, in which the best
subset selection is determined by maximizing the coefficient of efficiency
(CE) (Cook et al., 1994), calculated by a state-of-the-art 4-fold rolling-window cross-validation procedure (Nguyen et al., 2020). Another commonly
used validation parameter, reduction of error (RE), is also calculated from
the same procedure. Finally, the target SPI series for the full time is
constructed by merging the reconstructions for individual segments (Fig. 5d). As the reconstructions for different segments were calibrated from
different equations with different variances and predicted sums of squares,
the magnitudes of the reconstructed SPI for a specific segment had to be
adjusted using the variance matching method with respect to the standard
deviations of the predictands in common years during the calibration period
(McCarroll et al., 2015).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Results and discussion</title>
      <p id="d1e638">The dataset includes four SPI reconstructions: (1) the November–October SPI
reconstruction for the whole of Asia without using tree-ring density chronologies
and width chronologies with negative correlations to precipitation (November–October
SPI Version A); (2) the November–October SPI reconstruction for the whole of Asia, adding
tree-ring density chronologies and width chronologies with negative
correlations to precipitation (November–October SPI Version B); (3) the wet-season
SPI reconstruction for the extra-tropical Asia (November–April SPI for western Asia
and May–October SPI for the rest of the regions) without using tree-ring density
chronologies and width chronologies with negative correlations to
precipitation (wet season SPI Version A); (4) the wet season SPI
reconstruction for the extra-tropical Asia (November–April SPI for western Asia and
May–October SPI for the rest of the regions), adding tree-ring density chronologies
and width chronologies with negative correlations to precipitation (wet
season SPI Version B). Each of them is stored in a NetCDF file (.nc) and
contains five three-dimensional (longitude <inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> latitude <inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> time)
variables, including reconstructed SPI, adjusted coefficient of
determination (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), validation RE, validation CE and the number of
proxies used for construction (nPrx).</p>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>Validity of the reconstruction</title>
      <p id="d1e675">Figure 6 show the spatial patterns of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, RE and CE for the November–October SPI
reconstruction since 1700 by a 50-year interval. It shows that CE in
most of the study areas is positive. Although a few grids have negative CE,
especially before 1800, most of them still have positive RE. These results
mean the reconstruction is effective, in which the area with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> accounts for 36.1 % of grids in Asia in 1700 and extends to 66.1 %
in 1950 due to more and more available proxies. Since 1700, the areas with
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.4</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are distributed in a broad region from the southwest
coast of the Caspian Sea to Balkhash Lake to eastern China and in some grids
in the northern Far East, northern India and the western mainland Southeast Asia.
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> gradually passed 0.4 from 1750 to 1800 over Turkey, the West Siberian
Plain, central Asia, Mongolia and India. The highest <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (more than 0.6)
appeared in central eastern China throughout the entire 300-year period.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F6" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{6}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d1e753"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, RE and CE for November–October SPI reconstruction by
multi-proxies without using tree-ring density chronologies and width
chronologies with negative correlations to precipitation.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f06.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e774">By adding tree-ring density chronologies and width chronologies with
negative correlations to precipitation in the November–October SPI reconstruction
(i.e., Version B), the number of grids with ineffective reconstruction is
significantly reduced, and the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> for most of the grids is significantly
increased (Fig. 7). Compared to the November–October SPI reconstruction Version A
(Fig. 6), the area with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in Version B accounts for
59.3 % of grids in Asia in 1700 and extends to 85.1 % in 1950. In
particular, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> increased by 0.2–0.3 in central to eastern
Russia and by 0.1 to 0.2 in other regions, except for the Arabian Peninsula
and eastern China.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F7" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{7}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 7</label><caption><p id="d1e823"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, RE and CE for November–October SPI reconstruction by
multi-proxies, including tree-ring density chronologies and width
chronologies with negative correlations to precipitation.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f07.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e844">Likewise, for the wet-season SPI reconstruction, it is also effective in
most grids (Fig. 8), in which the area with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> accounts
for 37.3 % of grids in Asia in 1700 and extends to 61.5 % in 1950.
Compared with the November–October SPI Version A (Fig. 6), the wet-season SPI
reconstruction shows significantly higher <inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (0.1–0.2) for the region on
the east of the Caspian Sea, slightly higher <inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (around 0.1) for most
grids in high-latitude zones, and a reduced <inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> around 0.1 in eastern
China. For the wet-season SPI reconstruction with added tree-ring density
chronologies and width chronologies with negative correlations to
precipitation, the percentage of areas with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in 1700
and 1950 is 58.1 % and 83.9 % respectively (Fig. 9). The difference in
skill metrics between two wet-season SPI versions (Figs. 8 and 9) is similar
to that between two November–October SPI versions (Figs. 6 and 7).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F8" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{8}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 8</label><caption><p id="d1e922"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, RE and CE for wet-season SPI reconstruction by
multi-proxies without using tree-ring density chronologies and width
chronologies with negative correlations to precipitation; the black line
indicates the boundary of the region in which the wet season is November–April, as
that in Fig. 1.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f08.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F9" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{9}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 9</label><caption><p id="d1e945"><inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, RE and CE for wet-season SPI reconstruction by
multi-proxies, including tree-ring density chronologies and width
chronologies with negative correlations to precipitation; the black line
indicates the boundary of the region in which the wet season is November–April, as
that in Fig. 1.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f09.png"/>

        </fig>

</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>Data quality and usability</title>
      <p id="d1e974">Compared to three reconstructions of summer (JJA or May–September)
precipitation (or PDSI) in monsoon Asia by previous studies (Cook et al.,
2010a; Feng et al., 2013; Shi et al., 2018), the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the calibration
period of our May–October SPI reconstructions (Figs. 8p and 9p) are 10 %
higher than that of the best one in three reconstructions over the south Tibetan
Plateau to the eastern India subcontinent, the western mainland Southeast Asia and
northwest China. Moreover, our reconstruction has a slightly higher <inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in
parts of Mongolia, central Asia and eastern China than that in other
reconstructions. In particular, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in eastern China in our
reconstruction is about 40 % higher than that from the reconstruction
by only tree-ring data (Cook et al., 2010a). These improvements are not only
because more proxy data (including the DWI derived from Chinese historical
documents and the tree-ring data published recently) are added but also
because of the development of the reconstruction method that selects proxies by
the GLDD approach from a connected searching region with significantly
positive correlations to the target grid SPI.</p>
      <p id="d1e1016">In addition, the maps of correlation between our wet-season SPI
reconstructions and four reconstructions in monsoon Asia by previous studies
show that most grids pass the 0.01 significance level (Figs. 10–11). Specifically,
for the correlation (Figs. 10a, 11a) between our wet-season SPI
reconstruction Versions A and B and the JJA precipitation reconstruction by Shi
et al. (2018), 63.2 % and 64.1 % of all grids passed the 0.01
significance level, in which the value of the correlation coefficients for
central eastern China are almost higher than 0.60. Similar results are also
found for the correlations between our reconstruction versus the
May–September precipitation anomaly reconstruction by Shi et al. (2017) in
China (Figs. 10b, 11b) and the May–September precipitation
reconstruction over monsoon Asia (Figs. 10c, 11c) by Feng et al. (2013).
Even for the correlations between our wet-season SPI reconstruction versus
JJA PDSI reconstruction for monsoon Asian (Figs. 10d, 11d) by Cook et
al. (2010a) only using tree rings, 57.4 % (for our reconstruction Version A
versus JJA PDSI reconstruction) and 58.8 % (for our reconstruction Version
B versus JJA PDSI reconstruction) of all grids passed the 0.01 significance
level.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F10"><?xmltex \currentcnt{10}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 10</label><caption><p id="d1e1021">The maps of correlation between the wet-season SPI
reconstruction Version A of this study and four reconstructions in monsoon
Asia by previous studies of Shi et al. (2018) <bold>(a)</bold>, Shi et al. (2017) <bold>(b)</bold>,
Feng et al. (2013) <bold>(c)</bold> and Cook et al. (2010a) <bold>(d)</bold> respectively. Correlation
values significant at 99 % confidence are shown by dot marker.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f10.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F11"><?xmltex \currentcnt{11}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 11</label><caption><p id="d1e1045">Same as Fig. 10 but for the wet-season SPI
reconstruction Version B.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f11.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1054">To further assess the quality of reconstructed data, we compare our November–October
SPI reconstruction with gauge precipitation at those weather stations with
at least 30-year records before 1948, in which the precipitation data are
from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly dataset version 2
(GHCNmv2, <uri>https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v2/</uri>, last access: 21 May 2022) and the long-term
instrumental climatic databases of the People's Republic of China (Tao et
al., 1997). We calculate the correlations between the November–October precipitation
anomaly percentage and November–October SPI reconstruction in corresponding grids
(Fig. 12). Noting that the length of instrumental data before 1948 varies for
different weather stations, i.e., the degrees of freedom for calculating
these correlations are different station by station, we show the significance
level for all positive correlations station by station instead of the value
of correlation coefficients directly, with levels of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.01</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M59" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.01</mml:mn><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.05</mml:mn><mml:mo>&lt;</mml:mo><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>≤</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
(Fig. 12). The result shows that the correlations for most sites, especially
in eastern and southern Asia, pass the significance level of 0.1, though the
correlation is not significant for parts of stations in central Asia, western
Asia, the coastal area in southeast Asia and western Russia. For example, in
the six sites (Haerbin, Beijing, Qingdao, Shanghai, Yichang and Shantou)
evenly distributed across eastern China (Fig. 12), all the correlations
between reconstruction and observation pass the 0.01 significance level (Fig. 13). Moreover, the reconstructions could reproduce the most extreme
years, e.g., 1853, 1871, 1890, 1893, 1920 and 1921 in Beijing; 1875, 1876,
1889, 1891, 1892, 1921, 1929, 1931 and 1934 in Shanghai; and 1889, 1897,
1900, 1902, 1920, 1928, 1935 and 1937 in Yichang (Fig. 13). The high
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> values (i.e., <inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) of the poor positive correlation or negative
correlation in parts of stations (e.g., in India or southeast Asia) might
be induced by uncertainties from reconstructions based on few available proxies and observations in early times because the instrumental data
from these station usually extend to the 1880s and before (e.g., several
stations in India extend to 1836), with missing records and the frequent use of defective
rain gauges in the early times. This assessment indicates that our
reconstruction is of high quality for showing the precipitation variability in
most of the study areas, except for a few grids in western Russia, the coastal
area of southeast Asia and northern Japan. Thus, these datasets could be
used to further study the spatiotemporal variability and underlying
mechanisms of Asian precipitation since the pre-industrial era that is
critically needed for climate modeling, prediction and attribution.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F12"><?xmltex \currentcnt{12}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 12</label><caption><p id="d1e1138">Correlations between November–October precipitation anomaly
percentage for weather stations with at least 30-year records before 1948
from GHCNm and November–October SPI reconstruction in corresponding grids. The six
selected sites in eastern China are shown with black edges, and the
comparisons between observation and reconstruction year by year in these
sites will be shown as examples in Fig. 13.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f12.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F13"><?xmltex \currentcnt{13}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 13</label><caption><p id="d1e1149">Comparisons between November–October precipitation anomaly
percentage for six sites across eastern China from Tao et al. (1997) and
November–October SPI reconstruction in corresponding grids. <bold>(a)</bold> Harbin
(126.62<inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E, 45.68<inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N), <bold>(b)</bold> Beijing (116.28<inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E,
39.93<inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N), <bold>(c)</bold> Qingdao (120.33<inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E, 36.07<inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N),
<bold>(d)</bold> Shanghai (121.43<inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E, 31.17<inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N), <bold>(e)</bold> Yichang
(111.30<inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E, 30.70<inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N) and <bold>(f)</bold> Shantou
(116.68<inline-formula><mml:math id="M74" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E, 23.40<inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N). Their locations are also shown in
Fig. 12.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f13.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1287">For example, we use the dataset of November–October SPI Version B to investigate the
spatiotemporal pattern of hydroclimate variability over Asia for 1700–2000
by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Figure 14a shows the first
10 eigenvalues and their 95 % confidence uncertainty intervals generated
by the method from North et al. (1982). We find that only the first leading
eigenvalue is independent, while the uncertainty intervals of other
eigenvalues are overlapped, and the cumulative explained variance of the
first 10 eigenvalues only accounts for 30.83 % of the total (Fig. 14b).
Such results indicate that there exist multiple spatial patterns of
precipitation in Asia. Here, we show some major characteristics for the first
four modes, including spatial patterns (Fig. 14c–f), temporal changes (Fig. 15) and their correlations with winter sea surface temperature anomalies
(SSTAs) after the high-pass filter (Fig. 16). It is noted that the gridded SSTA
data are from ERSSTv5 over 1854–2000 (Huang et al., 2017).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><fig id="Ch1.F14"><?xmltex \currentcnt{14}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 14</label><caption><p id="d1e1293">EOF analysis of November–October SPI reconstruction in Asia. <bold>(a)</bold>
The first 10 eigenvalues and their 95 % uncertainty intervals. <bold>(b)</bold> The
cumulative explained variance of the first 10 eigenvalues. <bold>(c–f)</bold> Spatial
patterns of EOF1–EOF4.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f14.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{p}?><fig id="Ch1.F15"><?xmltex \currentcnt{15}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 15</label><caption><p id="d1e1313">Temporal change and wavelet power spectrum of the time
series (PC) for EOF1–EOF4 <bold>(a–d)</bold> shown in Fig. 14. PC is shown after
normalization with a 10-year low-pass filter (black) applied to each.
Spectral bands significant above the 90 % level are shown by black
contours.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f15.png"/>

        </fig>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F16" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{16}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 16</label><caption><p id="d1e1327">Field correlations between SSTA in winter and time
series of EOF1 <bold>(a)</bold> and EOF2 <bold>(b)</bold> after the 10-year high-pass filter. Correlation
values significant at 95 % confidence are shown by a dot marker.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f16.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1342">The spatial pattern of EOF1 has strong negative loadings over central Russia
and a broad region from western Asia to central Asia to western China, while
dominant positive loadings can be observed over the monsoon region and eastern Russia
(Fig. 14c). The time series for EOF1 has powerful inter-annual fluctuations
over the considered period and significant decadal fluctuations in 1770–1820
(Fig. 15a). Its high-frequency change (10-year high-pass filter) shows
striking negative correlations with winter SSTA in the central equatorial
Pacific and Indian Oceans but positive correlations in the western tropical
Pacific Ocean (Fig. 16a), which suggests that this mode is strongly affected by
coupling oscillation in tropical oceans, i.e., Indo-Pacific tripole (Lian et
al., 2013).</p>
      <p id="d1e1345">The EOF2 shows a teleconnected pattern, with positive loadings over western
Asia, India, northern China and western and eastern Russia but negative
loadings in the rest of the regions (Fig. 14d). The energy bands of the time series
for EOF2 are similar to those for EOF1, while its decadal fluctuations are
expressed in 1840–1900 (Fig. 15b). The inter-annual fluctuation of this mode
is significantly correlated with winter SSTA only in the eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean (Fig. 16b), which indicates that EOF2 is dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).</p>
      <p id="d1e1349">The EOF3 and EOF4 both show multi-pole spatial patterns (Fig. 14e–f), and
their time series are dominated by decadal to multi-decadal scale
fluctuations (Fig. 15c–d). They express some significant decadal
precipitation patterns in specific regions. For instance, precipitation over
eastern China has two major patterns of decadal variation (Zheng et al.,
2016): one is a dipole pattern divided by the Huai River, and it is
consistent with EOF3 in our study (Fig. 14e); the other is a four-zone
pattern (centered in southern China, the Yangtze River Valley, the North China
Plain and northeastern China) which is similar to EOF4 (Fig. 14f). In contrast,
the high-frequency fluctuations are relatively weak for these two EOFs, and
their links with SSTA are not significant.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3">
  <label>3.3</label><title>Effectiveness of GLDD and Uncertainty</title>
      <p id="d1e1360">Limited by the spatial coverage and uneven distribution of available
proxies, to reconstruct the grid dataset on past climate for large scales
such as continental, hemispherical or global, it is necessary to search the
proxy for calibration from a large area (so-called “searching region”,
usually). In previous studies on past temperature (Christiansen and
Ljungqvist, 2017) or hydro-climate reconstruction (Cook et al., 2010a; Shi
et al. 2017, 2018), the searching region for each grid is set
as a circular area with the same isotropic searching radius (ISR). However,
as pointed out by Christiansen and Ljungqvist (2017) from the investigation
on spatial decorrelation length in the Northern Hemispheric temperature
field, the searching radius for different target grids varies from less than
1000 to more than 6000 km, relying on target grid location and the
searching direction along with the spatial pattern of coherence of
temperature variation at different time scales. Since the spatial
heterogeneity of precipitation variation is more evident than that of
temperature variation, the proxy for a target hydroclimate reconstruction
should be more sensitive to location and the searching direction.</p>
      <p id="d1e1363">Compared with searching proxies using isotropic searching radius, GLDD
searches proxies for each target grid from the surrounding region where the
precipitation variability and rainfall regime are robustly coherent with
that of the target grid. As shown in Fig. 17, there are evident differences
in the maximum (Fig. 17a) and minimum distances (Fig. 17b) from the boundary
of the searching region to each target grid across Asia. The maximum
distance is 1000–2000 km for most grids in China, Mongolia,
and central and northwestern Russia; 2000–3000 km for most grids
in India, central Asia and southwestern and eastern Russia;
3000–4000 km in the Arabian Peninsula; and more than 4000 km for
tropical islands. However, the minimum distance is only 250–750 km for most grids of the study area, except very few grids in the
tropics. The difference between the maximum and minimum distances (Fig. 17c)
could reach 2000 km or more in regions with high topographic complexity,
which means that the searching region is always in an irregular shape. Thus,
for the area (e.g., the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding area) with
complicated topography and multiplex hydroclimate variation, GLDD could
identify the unique searching region (including shape and size) rigorously
for each target grid. For the area with a homogeneous hydroclimate
variability and rainfall regime, GLDD could capture the proxies far from the
target grid, which could reconstruct well in the areas where proxy data are
not present, such as the east of the Caspian Sea. Therefore, GLDD could
search the optimal proxies for hydroclimate reconstruction for each grid
and consequently improve the quality of the reconstructed dataset (see the
overall improvement of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> compared with prior studies in Sect. 3.2).
For example, the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of our reconstruction for the grid of
90.0–92.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> E and 27.5–30.0<inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N in Fig. 5 reached 40.8 %,
which is 10.9 % higher than that of Shi et al.'s (2018) reconstruction by
merging tree ring and documentary records together via ISR.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F17" specific-use="star"><?xmltex \currentcnt{17}?><?xmltex \def\figurename{Figure}?><label>Figure 17</label><caption><p id="d1e1412">The maximum <bold>(a)</bold> and minimum <bold>(b)</bold> distance from the boundary
of the searching region to the target point and their difference <bold>(c)</bold> for
each grid.</p></caption>
          <?xmltex \igopts{width=341.433071pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/5717/2022/essd-14-5717-2022-f17.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d1e1431">Yet, in this study, there still exist limitations and uncertainties. First, GLDD
could only search the candidate proxies for the reconstruction in a target
grid from its connected grids, where the precipitation variability and
rainfall regime are robustly coherent with the target grid, and excludes the
proxies from a teleconnected pattern. Thus, the candidate proxies for the
target grids are usually limited by GLDD compared to the ISR approach. This
might not only enlarge the uncertainty but also induce missing data in the
reconstruction for an area with large spatial heterogeneity of precipitation
variation and rainfall regimes due to very few available candidate proxies,
such as central Russia and the Arabian Peninsula. Second, for tree-ring proxies,
we use the same standardization method to build chronologies when raw
measurements are available. However, about 4.5 % of the tree-ring proxies
do not have raw measurement files; thus, we have to use the processed
chronologies with various standardization methods from different data
providers. As the test for some sites, the difference between chronologies
could reach a maximum of 20 % from different standardization methods (Li et
al., 2011). This may also induce uncertainty in the reconstruction. Thirdly,
for documentary proxies, DW120 may use instrumental precipitation data to
identify the dryness–wetness grades since 1951, especially after 1979, which
might lead to overestimations of the calibration and verification metrics in
eastern China. Fortunately, the data of dryness–wetness grades before 1950
are completely derived from historical documents (Wang and Zhao, 1979).
Thus, comparisons between Figs. 12–13 and 6–7 by each site grid
could help us to assess the overestimation, and the result shows that the
overestimation of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mi>a</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in this reconstruction is about 10 % on average
over eastern China.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>Data availability</title>
      <p id="d1e1456">The dataset (Y. Liu et al., 2022) can be accessed at
<uri>https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.01829</uri>. This dataset is licensed under a
CC BY-SA 4.0 license.</p><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>5</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <p id="d1e1472">In this study, we use a multi-proxy (mainly from tree rings and historical
documents with clear annual dating) network containing 2912 series to
reconstruct SPI for the wet season (November–April for west Asia and May–October for
the other regions) and annual (November–October) timescales since 1700 over Asia, with a
spatial resolution of 2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.5<inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>. Compared to
the previous studies (Cook et al., 2010a; Feng et al., 2013; Shi
et al. 2017, 2018), our reconstruction is conducted at the grid level
by an improved calibration method, which could search proxies for a target
grid by a new approach of GLDD from its connected areas within a sub-region
having homogeneous rainfall regimes and similar precipitation variability.
Meanwhile, many new proxies were used, mainly including additional 113
tree-ring width chronologies in the monsoon Asia and more than 6100 dry–wet
grade data (23.7 %) from historical documents in China. These additional
proxies evidently improve the coverage and distribution of proxies and
their temporal homogeneity due to the reconstructed period being limited to
300 years only. This dataset is the first SPI reconstruction covering the whole of
Asia based on pure proxies (without long-term observations or climate model
constraints) and can be used to more clearly investigate the Asian
precipitation change since 1700 and to test the paleoclimate simulation in
the industrial period.</p><?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d1e1505">QG and JZ designed the study and planned the reconstructions. YL processed
the experimental data, performed the computations and drafted the
manuscript. JZ critically revised the manuscript. ZH reviewed and commented on the manuscript. All authors discussed and
contributed to the reconstruction and the manuscript.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e1511">The contact author has declared that none of the authors has any competing interests.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="disclaimer"><title>Disclaimer</title>

      <p id="d1e1517">Publisher’s note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e1523">We acknowledge the World Data Center for
Paleoclimatology (WDC-P,
<uri>https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology</uri>, last access: 28 October 2022) for hosting and
providing the paleoclimatology database.</p></ack><notes notes-type="financialsupport"><title>Financial support</title>

      <p id="d1e1531">This research has been supported by the National Key R&amp;D Program of China on Global Change (grant no. 2017YFA0603300) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 42005043 and 42175058).</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e1537">This paper was edited by Hao Shi and reviewed by four anonymous referees.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
    <title>References</title>

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